By Gregorio Gimenez, Liubov Tkacheva, Katarína Svitková and Beatriz Barrado

The world’s urban population is booming; by 2050, six and a half billion people will be living in urban areas (World Bank, 2011a). On the one hand cities are significant population, infrastructure and economy hubs, as well as centers of political power; on the other hand, according to a time-proved assumption provided by the social sciences, the growth of cities tends to lead to disruption and crime (Shaw and McKay, 1942). The focus of this study on the city level is in line with the gradual transformation of governance and the growing importance of urban political economies (Sassen, 2006). In a public policy domain, the urban lens is useful for addressing site-specific issues – especially in the field of security (UN-Habitat, 2012; Jaitman and Guerrero, 2015). Crime rates tend to reveal geographic patterns, with higher concentration in urban areas (Eck and Weisburd, 2015; Johnson et al., 2007; Curman, Andersen and Brantingham, 2015; Gill, Wooditch and Weisburd, 2017). Understanding the degree to which urban concentration affects crime incidents is a fundamental issue to better plan crime prevention strategies and reduce violence. Focusing on the urban dimension of violent crime, the main aim of this study is to examine the relationship between the degree of urban concentration and the number of serious offenses, particularly homicides. Most existing research is focused on developed countries1 and often has methodological problems, mostly due to the use of databases with poor data quality. This problem is especially acute in developing countries, where crime statistics are usually fragmented, inconsistent, and aggregated only to the most macro levels. The lack of information and the weak national statistical systems are an important challenge for conducting rigorous research. It is important to emphasize that our contribution is not only in terms of providing additional evidence, but also in terms of the type of context that we analyze. As Ajzenman and Jaitman (2016:9) remark, providing empirical evidence from developing countries is crucial, given that “developing and developed countries are different in many dimensions, and also because crime levels tend to be much higher in the developing world and, in particular, in Latin America”. Specifically in Latin America, one of the main characteristics of the phenomenon of crime and violence is the degree of geographic concentration. Urban homicide rates are much higher than the average homicide rate, and almost half of all homicides are concentrated in 10% of municipalities (IDB, 2017). Violence in cities is not only homicidal and includes all types of crimes. Among the main causes associated with the concentration of crimes in urban areas, Alvarado and Muggah (2018) highlight those linked to the existence of large poor and peripheral neighbourhoods, the presence of disorderly urbanization and youth unemployment. Regarding our case study, Costa Rica, Vilalta Perdomo, Castillo and Torres (2016) highlight a series of specificities in the link between urbanization and delinquency. They point out that the Costa Rican population is largely concentrated around so-called Gran Área Metropolitana (GAM). They remark that, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INEC), in 2011 this area occupied 4% of the national territory and concentrated 53% of the population. Most of the country’s crimes take place in this area, which is characterized by higher unemployment, but also higher education and income levels. Higher education is related to higher earnings, which means that there are more potential victims for crimes against property. The authors also indicate that, within the GAM, San Jose is considered the most important zone of the country for the cocaine trade. Consequently, the GAM as a whole, and San Jose in particular, present the greatest challenges for public policies, especially in relation to urban development and public safety. Our in-depth econometric analysis of Costa Rica – a country of the Global South with significant urbanization and inequality rates – uses highly disaggregated socioeconomic data. It focuses on a wide range of types of crimes, in combination with econometric techniques which test for the presence of endogeineity, which constitutes a significant empirical contribution to the existing literature. The article is organized as follows. The next section presents a literature review in the field of urban violence in Latin America and Costa Rica. Its main objective is to provide a general context of citizen insecurity in the region and, particularly, the country, before presenting the case study in the third section. This empirical part develops an econometric model in order to demonstrate the connection between urban concentration and crime, particularly homicides.

DADOS, Rio de Janeiro, vol.64 (1): e20190127, 2021, 35p.

By Paul Pazen, Thomas Young, DJ Summers and Cooper Pollard

Colorado’s crime rate is not back to its pre-pandemic level. Both local and state authorities are currently attempting to find policy solutions.

Some localities have created policies and procedures that go beyond state guidelines in an effort to control crime. The City of Aurora implemented mandatory minimum sentencing guidelines for auto theft in 2022, for example, the year that Colorado’s and Aurora’s auto theft rates were highest. This policy led to a decrease in the auto theft rate in the city beyond what was seen statewide. In 2023, state lawmakers tried to address auto theft with passage of SB23-097. This bill did not implement mandatory minimum sentences, but instead made it a felony to commit auto theft regardless of the value of the vehicle. The law went into effect on July 1, 2023.

Using Aurora’s experience as a guide, CSI attempted to assess what the economic savings would be if the state were to experience the same decrease in auto theft, shoplifting, and overall crime that Aurora did after implementing its ordinance.

Key Findings

The share of auto theft in Aurora was 19% in July 2022. Since the passage of Aurora’s ordinance, known as “Mandatory Minimum Sentences for Motor Vehicle Theft,” the share averaged 16% from August 2022 through December 2024, representing a three percentage point decrease from the pre-August 2022 period.

A market model predicting auto theft in Aurora suggests there were 723 fewer auto thefts in Aurora from August 2022 to December 2024, a 6% decline relative to other large cities in the state.

For automobile crime, a 6% decline equates to $16.3 million in economic savings for Aurora from August 2022 through December 2024. For the largest city in the state, Denver, the economic savings would be $37.3 million over the same 29 months.

In contrast to Aurora’s experience, initial model results on the state impact from its 2023 effort was less pronounced at a 3% reduction in auto theft.

If Aurora’s experience is indicative of the potential savings of a similar statewide approach to crime, a 6% decline in crime statewide for all reported criminal offenses would have equated to $1.8 billion in economic savings in 2024, or roughly $774 per Colorado household.

Changes in local crime are not uniform across the state, however. The change in crime over the past five years varies widely by city and county.

Greenwood Village, CO : Common Sense Institute, 2025, 18p

By Holly Bird, Jodie Bradshaw, Roger Grimshaw, Habib Kadiri and Helen Mills

Serious Violence Reduction Orders (SVROs), introduced under the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act 2022, allow for suspicion-less stop and search of individuals previously convicted of certain knife-related offences. The pilot began in April 2023, in four areas across England.

The briefing finds attempting to track the use of SVROs is hindered by restricted data access. It argues that this lack of transparency undermines public accountability. Helen Mills, Head of Programmes at the Centre and co-author of the briefing, said:

The lack of openness about how SVROs are being used makes it impossible to answer basic questions about how an important new measure has been implemented. Violence reduction is too important an ambition for governments not to match the attention-grabbing claims with which new powers are introduced with transparency about what actually happens next.

With limited information from the pilot, researchers identified through annual stop and search figures, data that showed only 66 searches took place under SVRO powers in the first year of the pilot - significantly fewer than the 1,800 searches anticipated by the Home Office. None of these searches led to the discovery of weapons.

The briefing advocates for a more evidence-based approach to reducing violence. It recommends prioritising place-based investment, interventions for individuals affected by violence, and tackling damaged trust in policing.

Stressing the urgency of the government shifting focus, the briefing concludes:

The fundamental policy choice facing the government on reducing serious violence is clear. Does it develop stronger strategic programmes, based on the well-established evidence, and deliver the reductions in violence we all wish to see. Or does it continue with measures that, while giving the impression of being decisive, ultimately fall very short.

London: Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, 2024. 18p.

By Kaitlyn Rines

This report summarizes law enforcement reports of sexual assault offenses for the State of Ohio during the years 2016-2023. We also summarize characteristics of crime incidents, victims and suspects. We provide sexual assault rates throughout this report, and it is important to understand how we calculated them and what they mean. First, we calculate offense totals by counting the number of sexual assault victimizations documented within each law enforcement incident report. Sexual assault victim totals do not necessarily represent unique victims. For example, law enforcement could report that a suspect sexually assaulted an individual more than once during a single incident. Further, a suspect could assault the same individual during a different incident. Therefore, it is almost certain that the sexual assault offense total is larger than the number of individuals who were victims of sexual assaults. Next, we calculate the rate of sexual assault by dividing the sexual assault total by the population total and then multiplying the resulting number (the quotient) by 100,000. This yields a sexual assault crime rate per 100,000 persons. We provide Ohio’s overall sexual assault crime rates over time, and we also compare rates of sexual assault for Ohio’s standard demographic groups (e.g., age, sex, race). Rates can vary significantly depending on how many victimizations a group experienced as well as the size of one group versus another. For example, the sexual assault crime rate is much higher for female Ohioans than males, largely because the number of female sexual assaults is much larger than male. Further, most sexual assault victims are White females because most of Ohio is White. However, Black females have the highest victimization rate because their sexual assault total is large while their overall population size is small.

Columbus:; Ohio Department of Public Safety, Office of Criminal Justice Services. 2024. 62p.

By Jacob Kaplan · Aaron Chalfn

Observational evidence suggests that better ambient lighting leads people to feel safer when spending time outdoors in their community. We subject this finding to greater scrutiny and elaborate on the extent to which improvements in street lighting affect routine activities during nighttime hours. We report evidence from a survey experiment that examines individual's' perceptions of safety under two different intensities of nighttime ambient lighting. Brighter street lighting leads individuals to feel safer and over half of survey respondents are willing to pay an additional $400 per year in taxes in order to finance a hypothetical program which would replace dim yellow street lights with brighter LED lights. However, poor lighting does not change people’s willingness to spend time outdoors or to engage in behaviors which mitigate risk. Results suggest that street lighting is a means through which policymakers can both control crime and improve community well-being.

Security Journal (2022) 35:694–724

By New York City. Office of the Comptroller General

In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, a series of high-profile, random, and tragic acts of violence have heightened New Yorkers’ attention to people living on the streets and subways with serious mental illness. Following the killing of Michelle Go in January 2022 by an individual with a long history of psychosis, 37 more people were pushed off subway platforms in just over a year. In November 2023, New York Times reporters highlighted nearly 100 random attacks by mentally ill, homeless New Yorkers “failed by a system that keeps making the same errors.”

In recent weeks, the sense of crisis has been amplified by more heartbreaking incidents. On November 18, 2024, Ramon Rivera – who cycled on and off the streets with serious mental illness for years – went on a stabbing spree, killing 3 people in broad daylight in midtown Manhattan. On December 9, a jury acquitted Daniel Penny of the killing of Jordan Neely, whose failures by the system were legion. On Sunday, December 22, 2024, Debrina Kawam who was herself homeless was cruelly burned to death on an F train at the Coney Island station. On New Year’s Eve, another New Yorker was pushed onto the tracks into an oncoming train. New Yorkers’ sense of safety on subways and in their own neighborhoods has plummeted.

In response to mounting safety concerns, New York City and State have launched a slew of initiatives and legislative efforts to confront the issue of street homelessness for people with serious mental illness. But the efforts are piecemeal. People continue to fall through the cracks and there is little public confidence that things will change.

The Adams Administration has ineffectively coordinated a Continuum of Care (CoC) – and the results are devastating. Outreach teams lose track of clients. Hospitals release patients back to the street after a few hours because there aren’t enough inpatient beds to treat them. Judges cannot refer people into programs proven to reduce recidivism and increase adherence to treatment because there are no slots.[9] Jails place just 3% of discharged people with serious mental health challenges into supportive housing.

An audit by the Comptroller’s office in 2024 of the City’s Intensive Mobile Treatment (IMT) program for homeless New Yorkers with the most severe histories of mental illness found that the City inadequately measured whether the program was decreasing incarceration because of a lack of coordination among City agencies, that outcomes and treatment measures were inconsistent, and that placements into stable housing had declined precipitously.

Despite these persistent failures, evidence from other cities – and indeed, even from New York City – argues strongly that this crisis can be solved with more diligent leadership.

Data shows that there are approximately 2,000 people with serious mental illness at risk for street homelessness cycling through City streets, subways, jails, and hospitals. At that scale, a better-coordinated system is within the grasp of a city with the resources and capacity of New

York. Indeed, the City is already spending billions on outreach, police overtime, city jails, shelters, and emergency hospitalizations, but City Hall has continuously failed to coordinate these efforts effectively to solve the problem.

At the heart of that better-coordinated system, this report centers a “housing first” approach, which evidence shows has had great success in Philadelphia, Houston, Denver, other cities throughout the United States and around the world, and even in New York City. Housing first combines existing housing vouchers and service dollars to get people off the street and directly into stable housing with wraparound services.

Data shows that 70-90% of people experiencing street homelessness with serious mental illness will accept permanent housing with a coordinated outreach strategy, and that it will keep them stably housed, off the street, and better connected to the mental health services that will stabilize them.

Of course, a strategy that is 70-90% effective does not work 10-30% of the time. For those instances, New York City will need better processes for mandated treatment. Sometimes, individuals need to be hospitalized, either voluntarily or involuntarily when they are a danger to themselves or others. For an effective continuum of care, New York should thoughtfully amend its laws to allow a wider range of medical professionals to place or keep individuals in hospitalization and required the consideration of an individual’s full medical and behavioral history.

On any given day, there are approximately 1,400 people with serious mental illness detained in NYC jails, including Rikers Island. There is an urgent need to ensure these individuals are provided with adequate mental health care while they are in detention, and before they are discharged and return back to their communities. Instead, the City releases most of these individuals without receiving mental health treatment and without placement into housing, increasing the likelihood of returning to unsheltered homelessness. In addition, individuals assigned by court order to “assisted outpatient treatment” (AOT) face significant challenges including homelessness. Without stable housing, adherence to the required treatment plans becomes more difficult, undermining the effectiveness of AOT programs.

In all these cases, ultimately individuals need to be connected to stable housing – when they are discharged from jail, when they leave the hospital, or while they are in AOT – or else they will simply return to the street, where they are far more likely to go without treatment and continue in a declining spiral. That’s why a housing first approach is a central element of any effective plan.

With better coordination and management from City Hall, with a “housing first” approach that evidence suggests will work most of the time, and with more effective mandated treatment options when it doesn’t, New York City can dramatically reduce – and even effectively end – street homelessness of people with serious mental illness.

New York: New York City Office of the Comptroller General, 2025. 99p.

By Karolina Kamra Kregert

The main purpose of the Swedish Crime Survey (SCS) is to study trends in self-reported exposure to crime, fear of crime, confidence in the criminal justice system and crime victims' contact with the criminal justice system in the Swedish population (16-84 years). The survey also aims to describe differences among population groups, such as differences between men and women or among different age groups. This chapter presents a selection of the indicators included in the report, to summarise the results and provide an overall picture of trends and patterns. Note that, in the context of the SCS, exposure to crime refers to events that occurred during the previous calendar year, meaning that SCS 2024 refers to exposure to crime in 2023. Fear of crime refer to perceptions over the past year, while unsafety and confidence in the criminal justice system refer to perceptions at the time the questionnaire was answered. Trends Exposure to sexual offences, threats and bicycle theft have decreased, while fraud has increased There is a decreasing trend in the proportion of the population who state that they have been exposed to sexual offences, threats and bicycle theft. Exposure to sexual offences has significantly decreased in this year's survey (3.8 % in 2023, compared to 4.7 % in 2022), and after a sharp increase in the period 2012-2017, has begun decreasing instead. The proportion of respondents having been exposed to threats has also decreased (7.4% in 2023, compared to 7.7% in 2022), with an evident decreasing trend since 2020. Before that, there was an increase between 2014 and 2019. Furthermore, the proportion of households exposed to bicycle theft has decreased for the fourth consecutive year. Both sales fraud and card and credit fraud have increased in this year's survey. For sales fraud, an increasing trend has been observed since the first measuring point (2016), with a significant increase in this year's survey (from 6.1%, in 2022, to 6.9%, in 2023). Card and credit fraud have increased in the last two years, having previously decreased in 2020 and 2021. In terms of exposure to robbery, there was a decreasing trend as of 2020, but in this year's survey the proportion is the same as the previous year. For assault, pickpocketing, online harassment, harassment, burglary and car theft, the proportion has remained stable over the last three to four years.

English summary of Brå report 2024:8

Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 30p.