By John Bradford and Aaron Jed Rabena
Key Takeaways
The maritime security situation in the southern Philippines and neighbouring areas of Malaysia and Indonesia has greatly improved in recent years, thanks to coordinated government action.
The threats from terrorism and kidnapping have been reduced, but other forms of maritime criminal activity have become even more prominent, with smuggling and human trafficking emerging as the foremost concerns.
The Philippines, its neighbours, and its partners should leverage the positive momentum to build upon the gains, rather than shifting resources away.
The Bangsamoro peace process in the southern Philippines has travelled a rocky road in the decade since the agreement was signed between the national government and the area’s largest armed group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), in 2014. In October 2025, a series of court cases that derailed the first elections in the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao presented the latest bump – possibly a very consequential one. However, in the same decade, the maritime security situation has significantly improved in this area’s seas, which, as a matter of geography, history, and culture, are directly linked to the larger Philippines–Malaysia–Indonesia tri-border area (TBA).
A decade ago, the waters around the TBA were awash with banditry. The kidnapping of mariners and coastal residents was one of the most lucrative forms of crime. When eleven kidnapping incidents (nine successful) were documented over a nine-month period during 2016, alarm bells rang in the shipping community.
The cresting waves of maritime violence prompted Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines to begin coordinating air and maritime patrols under the auspices of the 2017 Trilateral Cooperative Arrangement. Since then, the Philippine government has arrested hundreds of suspects and engaged in clashes with members of maritime-savvy armed organisations, while also focusing on the region’s economic development. There have been no incidents of kidnapping at sea since January 2020.
Given the range of intense challenges the three nations face – especially in the maritime domain – it is both natural and appropriate that they may reorient resources towards other priorities. However, it would be a mistake to rest on their laurels. While the violence may have lessened, the TBA waters are still plagued by crime. It would be wiser to continue building on this success rather than easing the pressure, thereby allowing the criminals to reconstitute.
