By Jason Tower and Priscilla Clapp

Complex transnational networks of Chinese investors, forced out of Cambodia for illegal gambling activity, are relocating to Karen State to build three megacities as a hub for casinos. They use partnerships with local armed groups, operating under the authority of the national army, to gain access to land, offering in return a share of the profits. • The Myanmar government has yet to license casinos, meaning this sector remains illegal. Investors have ignored government approval processes, however, and moved rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic to build facilities to house illegal gambling. • To circumvent Chinese laws against gambling, ethnic Chinese with citizenship in other countries spearhead these projects. Of concern to Beijing, they have co-opted Chinese government institutions and agencies to present their activities as central to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. • These megacities flagrantly undermine Myanmar’s efforts to advance reforms serving the national interest, and Naypyidaw is responding with establishment of a commission to investigate them. • This kind of investment threatens to reverse recent gains made by decades of US assistance supporting democratic reform in Myanmar, and merits strong American support for efforts to control it.

Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace, 2020. 28p.

By Cristina Vintró-Alcaraz, Gemma Mestre-Bach, Roser Granero. et al;

Several studies have explored the association between gambling disorder (GD) and gambling-related crimes. However, it is still unclear how the commission of these offenses influences treatment outcomes. In this longitudinal study we sought: (1) to explore sociodemographic and clinical differences (e.g., psychiatric comorbidities) between individuals with GD who had committed gambling-related illegal acts (differentiating into those who had had legal consequences (n = 31) and those who had not (n = 55)), and patients with GD who had not committed crimes (n = 85); and (2) to compare the treatment outcome of these three groups, considering dropouts and relapses. Several sociodemographic and clinical variables were assessed, including the presence of substance use, and comorbid mental disorders. Patients received 16 sessions of cognitive-behavioral therapy. Patients who reported an absence of gambling-related illegal behavior were older, and showed the lowest GD severity, the most functional psychopathological state, the lowest impulsivity levels, and a more adaptive personality profile. Patients who had committed offenses with legal consequences presented the highest risk of dropout and relapses, higher number of psychological symptoms, higher likelihood of any other mental disorders, and greater prevalence of tobacco and illegal drugs use. Our findings uphold that patients who have committed gambling-related offenses show a more complex clinical profile that may interfere with their adherence to treatment

Christopher R Dennison , Jessica G Finkeldey , Gregory C Rocheleau

Although the relationship between problem gambling and criminal behavior has been widely researched, concerns over the causal nature of this association remain. Some argue that problem gambling does not lead to crime; instead, the same background characteristics that predict problem gambling also predict criminal behavior. Yet, studies suggestive of a spurious association often rely on small, non-random, and cross-sectional samples; thus, the extent to which the findings are 4 generalizable to the broader population is unknown. With this in mind, the present study uses data from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and a series of propensity score weighting and matching techniques to examine the role of confounding bias in the relationship between problem gambling and criminal behavior in young adulthood. On the surface, results show a positive and significant relationship between problem gambling and a range of criminal behaviors. However, after statistically balancing differences in several background measures between problem gamblers and non-problem gamblers, such as low self-control, past substance use, and juvenile delinquency, we find no significant relationship between problem gambling and crime. These patterns are consistent across several propensity score weighting and matching algorithms. Our results therefore parallel those in support of the "generality of deviance" framework, whereby a similar set of covariates known to be associated with criminal behavior also predict problem gambling.

By Cristina-Maria Badea and Raluca-Ștefania Badea

In the context of evolving new technologies around the world, access to online recreation and online freedom fails to be approached from the perspective of public health. Research in the domain of problem or pathological gambling shows that few countries have recently started to address the medical and social challenges of the issue, with regard to related-criminality and population health. Romania is not one of those countries, although reality shows an increase in gambling venues and online gambling opportunities which, as studies show, can only mean an increase in the number of problem or pathological gamblers, and possibly an increase in gambling-related crimes. With the present study we aim to point out both the urgent need for a multidisciplinary network to deal with the issues of gambling disorder and its relationship with criminality, and the possible benefits of trying to prevent the harm brought by criminality to society by addressing society’s responsibility to the people in terms of ensuring public health. It is the authors’ opinions that challenges raised by developing technologies, especially by online mobility and gambling market, together with online identity volatility, will bring even deeper layers of social issues if prevention of problem or pathological gambling is not undertaken as an important priority.

FIAT IUSTITIA, 2020, vol. 14, issue 1, 33-42

By Kalle Lind

While gambling is a harmless and popular pastime for most people, as a habitual activity it also has the potential to cause harm to the gamblers themselves and their affected others. These gambling harms are not static but vary in terms of intensity and duration. Such negative consequences can affect several different life-domains, and they may include financial problems, emotional distress, disrupted relationships, cultural harms, intergenerational harms, decrements in health, reduced performance at work or studies, or criminal behavior. Comorbidity between problem gambling, mental health problems, and other addictions as well as the connection between problem gambling and social disadvantage on various measures have been confirmed by previous studies. Problem gambling has been recognized as a criminogenic factor, and it is highly prevalent among incarcerated populations. Criminogenic problem gambling refers to a situation where problem gambling and the related financial distress escalate to criminal behavior, typically to income-generating crime such as fraud and embezzlement. Criminal harm has been suggested to be a late-stage gambling harm, which occurs together with long-standing and untreated problem gambling as gamblers run out of legal financial options. Furthermore, previous studies indicate that a more general association also exists between problem gambling and nongambling related crime in a population level. Not only is the gambling participation rate very high in Finland, but gambling has also had an exceptional position in Finland’s culture, society, and everyday life for decades. At the same time, 2.5% of gamblers are estimated to account for 50% of the total gambling expenditure. The latest population survey indicates that the prevalence of problem gambling is about 3% of the population. The core regulative framework, the recently reformed Lotteries Act, underscores minimization and prevention of gambling-related economic, healthrelated, and social harms, including criminal activity. In this context, this dissertation addresses the connection between problem gambling and criminal behavior through 1) data derived from documents produced by the police on 55 problem gambling-related cases, 2) screening data (N = 1,573) from a national problem gambling support program, 3) pilot survey data (n = 96) collected at two Finnish prisons, and 4) gambling-related population survey data (n = 7,186) combined with register-based variables on convictions and social disadvantage. Through qualitative document analysis this study explores patterns and mechanisms of problem gambling-related crime reported to the police. Logistic regression is utilized to find predictors of problem gambling-related stealing and cheating among help-seeking problem gamblers. Furthermore, this study explores the prevalence of probable problem gambling (measured using the Brief Biosocial Gambling Screen), the need for support, and support preferences in prison environment. Finally, logistic regression models were run to explore the general association between problem gambling severity, socioeconomic disadvantage, and having a conviction. Most of the problem gambling-related cases found from the police information system were nonviolent property crimes that were committed at home or at the workplace. In most cases the events were preceded by severe financial problems, the emergence of suitable opportunities to commit a crime and coexisting issues of lifecontrol, such as depression, relationship problems, and substance use. The criminal incidents were classified in three categories: identity theft, unauthorized access, and violent outburst. The crime aftermath consisted of the psychologically distressing process of hiding the trails and revival through getting caught. Reportedly, the main motivation for the crimes was to continue gambling, chase losses, or hide the extent of the individual’s problem 3 gambling from their affected others. Consistent with previous literature, the results reveal that among help-seeking problem gamblers, being young and having low income and low education predicted gambling-related stealing and cheating. Furthermore, as expected, a long duration of gambling problems also predicted cheating and stealing. Depressive symptoms and having a negative perception on one’s financial situation were also associated to problem gambling-related stealing or cheating. Gender, starting age of gambling, and comorbid substance use were not found to be statistically significant predictors of criminogenic problem gambling. Overall, 37.6% of the screened attendees reported having cheated or stolen to fund their gambling.

Tampere, Finland: Tampere University, 2022. 208p.

By Pricwaterhouse, Coopers and Betting and Gaming Council 2

In 2018/2019, we found evidence to suggest that the UK unlicensed online gambling market makes up a small but meaningful segment of the total market, with 47% of online gamblers aware of and 2.2% of online gamblers using unlicensed operators.

Pricewaterhouse Coopers, 2021. 66p.

By The UK Department for Culture, Media and Sport

Ensuring that gambling happens safely is a top government priority. We recognise that people should be free to spend their money as they choose, but when gambling poses the risk of becoming a clinical addiction the government needs to ensure there are proper protections. That is why change is now needed. Having a strong regulator with the powers and resources needed to oversee an increasingly high-tech industry is essential to ensuring this. We also need to have the right controls in place on the products people can be offered, safeguards covering how those who gamble are treated by operators, and the right safety nets in place to stop harm where it occurs. ● Gambling in its variety of forms is a popular pastime in Great Britain, with nearly half of all adults participating in at least one form (including the National Lottery) each month. Most spend small amounts which are similar to or less than spending on other leisure activities and do not report experiencing any harm from gambling. ● However, around 300,000 people in Great Britain are esƟmated to be experiencing ‘problem gambling’, defined as gambling to a degree which compromises, disrupts, or damages family, personal or recreational pursuits, and a further 1.8 million are identified as gambling at elevated levels of risk. Gambling harms can wreck lives, impact families and communities, and even lead to suicide in extreme cases. The package of measures outlined in this white paper will significantly increase protections with the aim of preventing harm. ● Our aim in the Review has been to assess the best available evidence to ensure that our goals can be delivered in the digital age, and that we have the balance of regulation right between protecting people from the potentially life-ruining effects of gambling-related harm while respecting the freedom of adults to engage in a legitimate leisure activity. We need to ensure that our regulatory and legislative frameworks continue to deliver on the three foundational principles of the 2005 Act: children and vulnerable people should be protected, the sector should be fair and open, and gambling should be crime free. ● The Review launched with a call for evidence which ran from December 2020 to March 2021 and received 16,000 submissions. Ministers and officials have supplemented this with hundreds of meetings with a wide range of stakeholders. Key publications before and since the call for evidence have also contributed significantly to our understanding of the issues, including the report of the Lords Select Committee on the Social and Economic Impact of the Gambling Industry, Public Health England’s (PHE) Gambling-related harms evidence review and the independent Review of the Regulation of BetIndex Ltd. We have also received advice from the Gambling Commission, which is being published alongside this white paper. We are grateful to all those who have contributed to the Review.

London: Department for Culture, Media & Sport, 2023. 268p.

By Hermann Mannheim

From the preface: “It happened perhaps eleven years ago, not long before my retirement from the teaching of criminology in the University of London. One day, after I had just completedmy first lecture of the new session and distributed copies of my, notoriously rather lengthy, reading listfor the course, Iwas approached by ayoung girl student who, holding her copy ni her hand, said ni avoice which sounded polite butalsorather determined: Sir, I am quite willing to read a bookon criminology, but itm u s t be only one, in which I can find everything required. Can you recommend such a book?' After some hesitation and with a strong feeling of guilt I replied that I could not comply with her request as there was no such book and she would probably have to read several of the items on my list, whereupon she silently and rather despondently withdrew.”

Boston. Houghton Mifflin Co. 1965. 772p. CONTAINS MARK-UP.

By Chloe Hooper

London. Hamish Hamilton. 2018. 254p.

On the scorching February day in 2009, a man lit two fires in the Australian state of Victoria, then sat on the roof of his house to watch the inferno. What came to be known as the Black Saturday bushfires killed 173 people and injured hundreds more, making them among the deadliest and most destructive wildfires in Australian history. As communities reeling from unspeakable loss demanded answers, detectives scrambled to piece together what really happened. They soon began to suspect the fires had been deliverately set by an arsonist.

The Arsonist takes readers on the hunt for this man, and inside the puzzle of his mind. But this book is also the story of fire in the Anthropocene. The command of fire has defined and sustained us as a species, and now, as climate change normalizes devastating wildfires worldwide, we must contend with the forces of inequality, and desperate yearning for power, that can lead to such destruction.

Written with Chloe Hooper’s trademark lyric detail and nuance, The Arsonist is a reminder that in the age of fire, all of us are gatekeepers.

The Economics of Extortion: Theory and Evidence on the Sicilian Mafia

By Luigi Balletta and Andrea Lavezzi 

This paper studies extortion of firms operating in legal sectors by a profit-maximizing criminal organization. We develop a simple principal-agent model under asymmetric information to find the Mafia-optimal extortion as a function of firms' observable characteristics, namely size and sector. We test the predictions of the model on a unique dataset on extortion in Sicily, the Italian region where the most powerful criminal organization, the Mafia, operates. In line with our theoretical model, our empirical findings show that extortion is strongly concave in firm's size and highly regressive. The percentage of profits appropriated by Mafia ranges from 40% for small firms to 2% for large firms. We derive some implications of these findings on market structure and economic development.

Pisa, Italy: Dipartimento di Economia e Management – Università di Pisa, 2019. 47p.

By Yvon Dandurand, Lucia Bird Ruiz Benitez de Lugo, Kingsley Madueke and Oumar Zombre  

  State-centric approaches to building resilience to organised crime must be complemented with community-based, context-specific responses that challenge organised crime and violence at a local level. Local communities are key elements of the necessary response to the destabilising impacts of organised crime in conflict as well as post-conflict settings. There remains a gap in stakeholder understanding of the elements of community resilience to organised crime, particularly in unstable settings. This report starts to address this gap, by analysing key drivers of community resilience – identified as social capital, community capacity, the role of women, economic capital and infrastructure – in four communities in Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso.   

Institute for Security Studies,  2022. 44p.

By Deborah Manzi

Criminal organizations operate in complex changing environments. Being flexible and dynamic allows criminal networks not only to exploit new illicit opportunities but also to react to law enforcement attempts at disruption, enhancing the persistence of these networks over time. Most studies investigating network disruption have examined organizational structures before and after the arrests of some actors but have disregarded groups’ adaptation strategies. The present study investigated the resilience of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) to law enforcement attempts at disruption, focusing on three main aspects: the ability to endure disruption, react quickly and efficiently to threats, and keep primary functions unaltered. The analysis relied on an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates drug trafficking and dealing activities by organized criminal groups and their reactions to law enforcement attempts at disruption. The simulation relied on information retrieved from a detailed court order against a large-scale Italian DTO and from the literature. The results demonstrated that law enforcement interventions are often critical events for DTOs, with high rates of disruption. However, surviving DTOs always displayed a high level of resilience, with effective strategies in place to react to threatening events and to continue drug trafficking and dealing.

Milan: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2023. 297p.

ByScott Duxbury and Dana L. Haynie

Physical, technological, and social networks are often at risk of intentional attack. Despite the wide-spanning importance of network vulnerability, very little is known about how criminal networks respond to attacks or whether intentional attacks affect criminal activity in the long-run. To assess criminal network responsiveness, we designed an empirically-grounded agent-based simulation using population-level network data on 16,847 illicit drug exchanges between 7,295 users of an active darknet drug market and statistical methods for simulation analysis. We consider three attack strategies: targeted attacks that delete structurally integral vertices, weak link attacks that delete large numbers of weakly connected vertices, and signal attacks that saturate the network with noisy signals. Results reveal that, while targeted attacks are effective when conducted at a large-scale, weak link and signal attacks deter more potential drug transactions and buyers when only a small portion of the network is attacked. We also find that intentional attacks affect network behavior. When networks are attacked, actors grow more cautious about forging ties, connecting less frequently and only to trustworthy alters. Operating in tandem, these two processes undermine long-term network robustness and increase network vulnerability to future attacks.

  PLoS ONE 15(9):  2020.  

By Dušan Stanković

This research focuses on the six European Union (EU) accession candidates from the Western Balkans (WB6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia. Its objectives are to map the phenomenon and main characteristics of organized crime groups (OCGs) in the region. The analysis is based on the research of both primary and secondary data, using expert interviews, police announcements, official statistics, national SOCTA documents, etc. The study finds that OCGs from some countries such as Albania, Montenegro and Serbia developed largely international networks with 30 and more members. These OCGs represent the main actors and leaders of organized crime (OC) in the region. Other OCGs which have fewer members (from 3-4 to around 15), perform mainly on a national level or as facilitators of bigger OCGs. Male gender is the most common (in about 90% of the cases). Women are engaged in logistic activities, although there are individual cases where they are higher in the criminal group hierarchy. The age of the members can vary between 20 and 50 years old, depending on the activity and territory. The estimated average is around 35, but there are cases of members aged 65 and over. The nationalities and ethnicities of the OCGs follow the patterns of their regions, having solid bonds with their families and traditions. However, differences in background do not stop OCGs to cooperate and make criminal networks. The main criminal activities performed by the OCGs in WB6 are the illicit drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. At the same time, illegal firearms and explosives trafficking and money laundering serve as facilitators of the major activities. Less frequent crime types are organized property crimes, where smuggling of goods is the most prominent activity. Trafficking in human beings has recently been much-evoked in public, mainly by large migration going through the Balkans and creating opportunities for illegal migration and human trafficking. Still, it seems like the authorities currently do not identify big OCGs in the trafficking of human beings. In addition, cybercrime represents an incremental trend, but there also seem to be no prominent OCGs which perform it as a core activity.  

Belgrade, Serbia:  Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP), 2022. 48p.

By Alina Rocha Menocal

  This paper argues that political settlements analysis and an understanding of elite bargains need to incorporate a deeper and more systematic exploration of serious organised crime (SOC), since this affects critical elements related to the nature and quality of elite bargains and political settlements. In particular, the paper examines how SOC affects these issues – from the elites that constitute a bargain or settlement, to violence and stability, to ‘stateness’, or the extent to which a state is anchored in society, state capacity and political will, to legitimacy and electoral politics. The paper draws on insights from a rich body of research on organised crime and its impacts on conflict, violence, governance and development to articulate how SOC can be more thoroughly integrated into research focused on political settlements and/or elite bargains to enhance its analytical depth, quality and accuracy. The paper also outlines lessons and implications that may guide further reflection in conflict and development circles on the nexus between organised crime, elite bargains and political settlements from a thinking and working politically perspective.  

SOC ACE Research Paper No. 15. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham. 2022. 41p.

By Tomáš Diviák 

Objectives: Criminal networks tend to recover after a disruption, and this recovery may trigger negative unintended consequences by strengthening network cohesion. This study uses a real-world street gang network as a basis for simulating the effect of disruption and subsequent recovery on network structure.

Methods: This study utilises cohesion and centrality measures to describe the network and to simulate nine network disruptions. Stationary stochastic actor-oriented models are used to identify relational mechanisms in this network and subsequently to simulate network recovery in five scenarios.

Results: Removing the most central and the highest-ranking actors have the largest immediate impact on the network. In the long-term recovery simulation, networks become more compact (substantially so when increasing triadic closure), while the structure disintegrates when preferential attachment decreases.

Conclusion: These results indicate that the mechanisms driving network recovery are more important than the immediate impact of disruption due to network recovery.

Journal of Experimental Criminology (2023)

By Robin Cartwright and Nicholas Atampugre

The Niger Delta is a global focal point for oil crime that has devastated Nigeria's environment, land, air and water.

Niger Delta oil crime is one of the most serious natural resource crimes globally, with the systematic theft, sale and illegal refining of up to 20% of Nigeria’s oil output. Illegal bunkering and artisanal refining have increased exponentially over the past decade. This paper draws on qualitative interviews with Niger Deltan citizens, and government and community experts, to examine the impact on society. While state security forces continue to treat the crime with ‘extreme prejudice’ – destroying illegal camps and transportation – Niger Deltan citizens have normalised it, justifying it as an economic, energy and employment necessity despite its health and environmental toll.

Enact Africa, 2020. 28p.

By Christopher Hernandez-Roy and Rubi Bledsoe

A journalist recently made an apt joke about living under President Daniel Ortega’s dictatorship: “Hi, I am from Nicaragua, and I represent your future. I am living what you will be experiencing soon enough: harassment, persecution, and threats to your lives and imprisonment,” he said to a group of Northern Triangle colleagues by way of introduction. This anecdote recalls Charles Dickens’ Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come in his 1843 novella A Christmas Tale, where the ghost portends the demise of Ebenezer Scrooge. In this context, it portends the death of democracy in the Northern Triangle, and the dire effects of democratic backsliding. Up until very recently, the conditions in Nicaragua were starkly different from its neighbors. The Ortega regime is a dictatorship that persecutes and detains opponents at will and with complete impunity. Nicaragua’s Northern Triangle neighbors have been democracies, even if imperfect ones. However, in 2019, the election of Nayib Bukele as president of El Salvador marked the beginning of a stark shift in the anti-crime strategy of the country and a turn toward authoritarian tendencies. The new leader opted to suspend constitutional guarantees and engage in mass incarceration in order to fight crime and gang violence, setting off alarm bells across the region, as concerns grew over democratic backsliding. The self-identified “coolest dictator in the world,” used his background in marketing and social media branding to propel an extreme version of mano dura, or “zero tolerance,” to fight crime. Three years later, Honduras and other countries have taken notice of the appeal of these tactics and are now replicating it, or considering it, in whole or in part. This is a slippery slope for the region and a precedent that poses a great danger to the hemisphere’s democracies.   

Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2023. 12p.

By Tom Wainwright

How does a budding cartel boss succeed (and survive) in the $300 billion illegal drug business? By learning from the best, of course. From creating brand value to fine-tuning customer service, the folks running cartels have been attentive students of the strategy and tactics used by corporations such as Walmart, McDonald’s, and Coca-Cola.

And what can government learn to combat this scourge? By analyzing the cartels as companies, law enforcers might better understand how they work—and stop throwing away $100 billion a year in a futile effort to win the “war” against this global, highly organized business.

Your intrepid guide to the most exotic and brutal industry on earth is Tom Wainwright. Picking his way through Andean cocaine fields, Central American prisons, Colorado pot shops, and the online drug dens of the Dark Web, Wainwright provides a fresh, innovative look into the drug trade and its 250 million customers.

The cast of characters includes “Bin Laden,” the Bolivian coca guide; “Old Lin,” the Salvadoran gang leader; “Starboy,” the millionaire New Zealand pill maker; and a cozy Mexican grandmother who cooks blueberry pancakes while plotting murder. Along with presidents, cops, and teenage hitmen, they explain such matters as the business purpose for head-to-toe tattoos, how gangs decide whether to compete or collude, and why cartels care a surprising amount about corporate social responsibility.

More than just an investigation of how drug cartels do business, Narconomics is also a blueprint for how to defeat them

NY. Public Affairs. 2016. 288p.

By Ioan Grillo

The world has watched stunned at the bloodshed in Mexico. Thirty thousand murdered since 2006; police chiefs shot within hours of taking office; mass graves comparable to those of civil wars; car bombs shattering storefronts; headless corpses heaped in town squares. The United States throws Black Hawk helicopters and drug agents at the problem. But in secret, Washington is confused and divided about what to do. "Who are these mysterious figures tearing Mexico apart?" they wonder.

London: Bloomsbury, 2017. 250p.