By Ned Levine, Bindi Naik-Mathuria, Cary Cain, Lisa Pompeii, Abiodun Oluyomi

Although the media tends to focus on homicides when it comes to firearm violence, and mass shootings in particular, the reality of the public health crisis is more complicated and widespread than many realize. Gun killings are of course tragic, but nonfatal firearm violence can also severely injure victims, leaving them physically debilitated or psychologically damaged for years on end. The family and friends of the victims are often left traumatized as well. But the risks from firearms are even more extensive, involving the psychological costs, since the vast majority of firearm crimes do not involve deaths or injuries.

In the greater Houston area, firearm violence presents various dangers for the public. This report illustrates the scope of the problem by examining firearm incidents occurring in Harris County, Texas, between 2018 and 2021. The incidents were identified using the databases of the four largest law enforcement jurisdictions in Harris County — the Houston, Pasadena, and Baytown police departments and the Harris County Sheriff’s Office — and cover the vast majority of incidents in the county. From this data, we were able to identify trends in the region’s homicide rates, the distribution of firearm incidents by severity, and firearm incident “hot spots”. Ultimately, the findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach for reducing gun violence in our society.

Houston: Rice University, Baker Institute for Public Policy, 2023. 12p.

By Claire Boine , Michael Siegel and Abdine Maiga 

Background: Although gun owners overwhelmingly support violence prevention policies, they are hesitant to speak up publicly to advocate for these policies. We tested a series of communication messages on gun owners’ level of support for various firearm violence prevention policies and on their willingness to engage in gun violence prevention advocacy. Methods: We conducted three consecutive experiments, testing a total of thirteen messages on a sample of gun owners over 18 years old who live in the U.S. The first was a random experiment, the second a quasi-experiment, and the third a randomized control trial. The goal of having these varied methods was to develop messages applicable to different contexts with different levels of information about the audience. Results: The most effective message was a script showing respect for gun owners’ decisions to purchase a firearm and proposing a balanced policy roadmap to end gun violence, which led to an increase in gun owner’s willingness to engage in eight diferent advocacy activities. We also found a value-based message conveying loyalty to increase support for domestic violence related prohibitions and willingness to engage in advocacy for gun violence prevention policies. Conclusions: Public health professionals need to develop communication strategies that are aligned with gun owners’ values and that afrm respect for gun culture and for gun owners’ decisions to own a gun.

Injury Prevention. 9(30): 2022

By Kathleen Grene, Amani Dharani and Michael Siegel

•   Background While gun owners are frequently surveyed, we are not aware of any study that has examined principles held by gun owners that underlie their gun policy opinions, or their opinions about specific provisions of each policy. To fnd the common ground between gun owners and non-gun owners, this paper aims to answer the following: (1) What underlying principles affects gun owner support for gun policies; (2) how do gun owners’ attitudes change depending on the specific provisions within these policies? Methods In May 2022, a survey was administered by NORC at the University of Chicago and completed by adult gun owners (n=1078) online or by phone. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA. The survey used a 5-point Likert scale to evaluate gun owners’ principles and attitudes toward frearm regulation, such as red fag laws, and possible provisions to these policies. Focus groups and interviews were conducted with 96 adult gun owners and non-gun owners to further clarify points in the survey for the former and to ascertain support for the same policies and their potential provisions for the latter. Results The principle that gun owners identified with the most concerned keeping guns out of the hands of those with an increased risk for violence. There was significant overlap among gun owners and non-gun owners on policy support, especially with this central theme that those with a history of violence should be prevented from accessing a firearm. The degree of support for policies was different depending on what provisions were said to be included in the policy. For example, the degree of support for universal background checks ranged from 19.9 to 78.4% depending on the details of the legislation. Conclusion This research demonstrates common ground between gun owners and non-gun owners: It informs the gun safety policy community about gun owners’ views and principles on gun safety policy and which policy provisions impact their support for a given law. This paper suggests that an effective, mutually agreed upon gun safety policy is possible. 

  Injury Epidemiology (2023) 10:21   

Helmus, Todd C.; Brown, Ryan Andrew; Ramchand, Rajeev

From the document: "Policymakers and researchers are concerned that the U.S. veteran community is at increased risk of radicalization to violent extremism. Although subsequently revised downward, early reports suggested that as many as one in five Capitol Hill attackers was currently or had previously been affiliated with the U.S. military. Extremist groups actively target military members and veterans for recruitment because of their training and operational, logistic, and leadership skills. The unique and often lonely experience of leaving the military has been hypothesized to make veterans susceptible to such recruitment. To help address these concerns, the authors conducted a nationally representative survey of veterans to examine the prevalence of support for specific extremist groups and ideologies, including support for political violence. The authors compared their results with those from surveys of the general population. Among other findings, the veteran community, as a whole, did not manifest higher support than the general population. Interestingly, the majority of those who supported political violence were not also supporters of specific groups."

RAND Corporation. 2023. 26p.

By John Braithwaite and Bina D'Costa

War and crime are cascade phenomena. War cascades across space and time to more war; crime to more crime; crime cascades to war; and war to crime. As a result, war and crime become complex phenomena. That does not mean we cannot understand how to prevent crime and war simultaneously. This book shows, for example, how a cascade analysis leads to an understanding of how refugee camps are nodes of both targeted attack and targeted recruitment into violence. Hence, humanitarian prevention also must target such nodes of risk. This book shows how nonviolence and non-domination can also be made to cascade, shunting cascades of violence into reverse. Complexity theory implies a conclusion that the pursuit of strategies for preventing crime and war is less important than understanding meta strategies. These are meta strategies for how to sequence and escalate many redundant prevention strategies. These themes were explored across seven South Asian societies during eight years of fieldwork.

Canberra: ANU Press, 2018. 706p.

By Julia Jansson

Recent atrocities have insured that terrorism and how to deal with terrorists legally and politically has been the subject of much discussion and debate on the international stage. This book presents a study of changes in the legal treatment of those perpetrating crimes of a political character over several decades. It most centrally deals with the political offence exception and how it has come to have changed. The book looks at this change from an international perspective with a particular focus on the United States. Interdisciplinary in approach, it examines the fields of terrorism and political crime from legal, political science and criminological perspectives. It will be of interest to a broad range of academics and researchers, as well as to policy-makers involved in creating new anti-terrorist policies.

New York; London: Routledge, 2019. 300p.

By Tanja Dreher

Targeted researches experiences of racism in New South Wales after September 11, 2001. The monograph analyses data collected by the anti-racism hotline established by the Community Relations Commission For a Multicultural NSW (CRC). It details a significant increase in racially motivated violence and verbal abuse in NSW in the months following the US 2001 September 11 attacks and finds these incidents produced a climate of fear and insecurity, which continues to impact these communities, and denies them the chance to enjoy a true sense of Australian citizenship.

Broadway, AUS: UTS Press, 2006. 48p.

By Antonio Pigliaru

Prefazione:” Poco prima di morire, nel marzo 1969, a 46 anni, Antonio P-i gliaru aveva steso uno schematico «programma » per la pubblicazione di tutti i suoi scritti, editi ed inediti. In esso era compreso un volume dal titolo «Il banditismo in Sardegna», in cui sarebbero dovuti confluire, insieme, lo studio su «La vendetta barbaricina come ordinamento giuridico», pubbli- cato presso Giuffrè nel 1959, e gli scritti più interessanti fra quelli che, prima e dopo quell'anno, Pigliaru aveva dedicato al pro- blema della criminalità in Sardegna: scritti che, pur apparsi su riviste scientifiche non direttamente legate all'attualità, erano pu- re quelli nei quali veniva razionalizzata e resa più coerente alle ragioni di una metodologia autentica quella stessa scottante ma- teria di cronaca, in cui Pigliaru si trovava così spesso coinvolto nel suo esercizio di intellettuale impegnato direttamente e totalmente sui temi di fondo della condizione isolana…”

Varese. Giuffrè Editore. 1970. 477p.

By Rudiger Lohiker

Jihadism has been an important issue of public discussions since 9/11. Internet media have been used by Jihadis as means of communication, propaganda, recruitment, and even training purposes. In this volume, the processes of interaction on Jihadi internet sites are analysed. Particular attention lays on the mechanisms of spread of propaganda via the internet by diverse technical means. The process of transformation of Islamic knowledge into Jihadi knowledge, the rhetorics  of videos, the development of South Asian Jihadi organisations and some conceptual issues are discussed.

Gottingen: V&R unipress, 2012. 224p.

By Pietro Marongiu

From the cover: Tra i filoni di studi sul banditismo compiuti ni Sardegna ni questi ultimi anni uno dei più interessanti è quello della scuola cri- minologica cagliaritana che, a partire dagliAnni Sessanta, ha offerto alla riflessione dei sardi - e della stessa Commissione Parlamentare d'inchiesta - sui problemi della criminalità isolana una serie di contributi fondamentali, soprattutto attraverso le opere di Raffaello Camba, Nereide Rudas e Giuseppe Puggioni.

Da quegli studi parte questo libro di Pietro Marongiu, puntato ad indagare al storia del banditismo isolano in quella sua caratteristica facies pastorale che assume spesso i connotati di un vero e proprio «banditismo sociale», secondo i moduli che ne sono stati indicati anche dall'inglese E.J. Hobsbawm.

Nella prima parte li libro ripercorre le interpretazioni che dai testi dell'antropologia positivistica degli «italiani» Niceforo e Lom- broso arrivano sino alle opere fondamentali dei sardi Antonio Pigliaru e Michelangelo Pira, disegnando così un intelligente inventario della attenzione che gli studiosi hanno posto alla specificità del banditismo isolano, e nella seconda parte ricostruisce con precisione filologica date, tappe, eventi, cronache, profili di zigantes e di balentes, perso. naggi maggiori e minori della storia del banditismo sardo.

By Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand & Christopher Blattman

  Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 20:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together. 

Unpublished paper, 2023. 136p.

By Daniel Semenza and Richard Stansfield

America is entrenched in an ongoing epidemic of gun violence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, homicides and nonfatal shootings spiked, reaching unprecedented levels in many US cities. Gun violence remains exceptionally high around the country, although there is evidence that homicides are beginning to decrease in cities like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis. Generally, the US has a homicide rate roughly 25 times higher than most peer industrialized countries and contains about 40 percent of the global stock of civilian firearms. Almost all of the firearms that end up on the streets are first sold through legally appointed federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) following manufacture or import. Given the unique ease of access to firearms in the US, there is a growing sense of urgency to better understand how crime guns are acquired and from where they originate to support much stronger supply-side efforts to address gun violence.

Prior research has focused extensively on the large “secondary market” for firearms, where guns are transferred between unlicensed persons or to those legally prohibited from buying a firearm. Most guns used in a crime are illegally acquired through secondary market channels via small-scale purchases, middlemen, and “fences” that supply weapons to local illicit markets. In contrast, the focus of our recent work has been on the “primary market,” which includes the legal retail sale of firearms from federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) to private consumers. The primary market directly feeds the illicit secondary market for firearms.

Albany, NY: Rockefeller Institute of Government, 2023. 26p.

By Jared Diamond

London. Penguin 1997. 675p.

In this "artful, informative, and delightful" (William H. McNeill, New York Review of Books) book, Jared Diamond convincingly argues that geographical and environmental factors shaped the modern world. Societies that had had a head start in food production advanced beyond the hunter-gatherer stage, and then developed religion --as well as nasty germs and potent weapons of war --and adventured on sea and land to conquer and decimate preliterate cultures. A major advance in our understanding of human societies, Guns, Germs, and Steel chronicles the way that the modern world came to be and stunningly dismantles racially based theories of human history. Winner of the Pulitzer Prize, the Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, the Rhone-Poulenc Prize, and the Commonwealth club of California's Gold Medal.

By Solomon, Daniel; Donine, Tallan

From the document: "In 2018, anti-Muslim extremists in Sri Lanka organized a series of attacks against Muslim civilians throughout the country [...]. Extremist leaders used a misleading viral video to stoke fears that the country's Muslim minority was organizing a campaign to sterilize the majority Sinhalese population en masse. The video circulated widely on Facebook, and participants in the violence also set up private WhatsApp groups to coordinate the violence. This is just one example of a disturbing pattern that is increasingly under the spotlight: social media seeming to fuel violence, including large-scale and deliberate attacks on civilians based on their identity. [...] The goal of this paper is to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between social media technologies and the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, policy documents, and public statements by social media companies, the paper surveys current knowledge and identifies important gaps in understanding about (1) how social media platforms have contributed to the risk and occurrence of mass atrocities in the past and how they might do so in the future;1 and (2) strategies to help prevent social media from fueling mass atrocities."

United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. 2023. 26p.

By United States. Federal Bureau Of Investigation

From the document: "In 2013, the president signed into law the Investigative Assistance for Violent Crimes Act of 2012, which led the FBI to examine active shooter incidents since 2000. The findings in this report are intended to provide an overview of active shooter incidents to help law enforcement, other first responders, and the public better understand the levels of threats associated with active shooter incidents. In 2022, the FBI designated 50 shootings as active shooter incidents. Although incidents decreased by 18% from 2021 (61 incidents), the number of active shooter incidents increased by 66.7% compared to 2018 (30 incidents). The 50 active shooter incidents in 2022 occurred in 25 states and the District of Columbia and represent seven location categories, including open spaces, commerce, residences, education, government, houses of worship, and a health care facility. [...] Data cited in this report for active shooter incidents that occurred in 2022 is valid as of February 10, 2023; however, incident data from prior published reports was not updated. If additional incidents meeting FBI criteria are identified after the publication of this document, every effort will be made to factor those incidents into future reporting."

United States. Federal Bureau of Investigation. 2023. 33p.

By Lauren Pinson

Linkages between illicit arms, organized crime, and armed conflict can reinforce one another while also escalating and prolonging violence and eroding governance.1 Financial gains from crime can lengthen or intensify armed conflicts by creating revenue streams for non-State armed groups (NSAGs). Beyond undermining the monopoly of the State on the use of force, armed conflict also creates an environment that can enable organized crime to prosper. In this context, when hostilities cease and parties to a conflict move towards a peaceful resolution, the widespread availability of surplus arms and ammunition can contribute to a situation of ‘criminalized peace’ that obstructs sustainable peacebuilding efforts. Illicit arms and ammunition clearly link conflict to crime as well as crime to conflict. Illicit arms can both enable and fuel an armed conflict, while different conflict phases provide opportunities for the diversion of arms and a potentially lucrative income source for organized arms trafficking networks. NSAGs and organized criminal groups (OCGs) use illicit arms to engage in conflict or perpetrate crime respectively, while both types of groups can also be involved in the trafficking of arms. Furthermore, there are often-blurred lines between these types of groups, particularly in conflict and post-conflict settings. Researchers and practitioners have examined the nexus between two of these three security challenges: armed conflict, organized crime, and illicit arms. Yet, there has been limited research examining the linkages between all three of these security challenges. In response to this knowledge gap, this issue brief explores the different ways in which illicit arms connect armed conflict and organized crime and provides suggestions on how to better address these interconnected challenges. This brief may further inform practitioners and policymakers by framing the conversation for future decision-making and research.   

Geneva: United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) and  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2022.  36p.

By Elise M. Roberts-Ingleson and Wesley S. McCann

Does misinformation lead to radicalisation? This Research Note explores the theoretical link between consumption of misinformation and radicalisation to violent extremism. Drawing from insights from communication studies, criminology, and psychology, it is argued that some unique characteristics of misinformation are likely to facilitate radicalisation among individuals with self-uncertainty, low cognitive flexibility, and grievances, who also experience social exclusion. This exploration concludes with a summary of findings and offers recommendations for both policy makers and practitioners.

Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume XVII, Issue I March 2023

By Colin Powers, Erik Skare, Georges Fahmi, Nouran Ahmed, Ahmad Mhidi, Myriam Ababsa and Olivier Roy

Conceptual and epistemological challenges have to date constrained the generation of scientific knowledge on violent extremism. This article inverts the field’s seminal research question with an eye on furnishing a sturdier foundation for inquiry and theory building. Rather than seeking generalisable truths on why violent extremism occurs, we induce tentative propositions on why it does not, particularly within the context of enabling environments. Based on original data gathered through case studies conducted in the Middle East and North Africa, our primary findings are that the probability of violent extremism in enabling environments is reduced by three variables: i) hard interventions by the state; ii) the availability of credible ideological alternatives; and iii) the opportunity to opt out of the economy of violent extremism. At the conceptual level, we also propose that violent extremism be considered as a modality of action practiced by discrete political actors—namely, terrorist organisations—rather than as a phenomenon more diffusely pervading societies, nations, or faiths.

Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume XVII, Issue I March 2023

Kaitlyn Robinson, Iris Malone, and Martha Crenshaw

The far-right anti-government extremist movement poses a significant threat in the United States. The January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol illustrates the capacity of this movement to plan and mount violent attacks against government targets and democratic institutions. In this article, we explore how the organisational and tactical characteristics of the far-right anti-government movement in the United States enable it to thrive despite the dangers it poses to the public. We argue that its deep-seated ideological roots, fluid organisational structure, and mix of violent and nonviolent tactics make the movement difficult for federal and state authorities to proscribe, prosecute, and ultimately eliminate. US policymakers need to develop an informed response that accounts for the fluid, decentralised, and public-facing nature of anti-government extremism, as well as the pervasive distrust of federal authority that it reflects. We suggest that this approach will likely differ from the modern counter-terrorism tools that were initially designed to combat terrorist threats emanating from abroad, such as those posed by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. We ground our arguments in evidence from cases of anti-government extremist groups and followers active in the United States over the past three decades.

Perspectives on Terrorism, Volume XVII, Issue I March 2023.

By Neil Shortland and Matthew Crayne

Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF): Members of the DHS workforce and terrorism researchers are systematically exposed to the propaganda, ideologies, and psychologies of actors who seek to launch terrorist attacks. This content is inherently value-laden and possibly personally troubling, causing these individuals to confront potential violations of their “sacred” or “protected” values such as the preservation of life (e.g., Tetlock et al., 2000). Here we present the result of a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) which sought to review research across multiple fields of work in which individuals are exposed to traumatic imagery, or events. This REA found that there is a small body of extant research focused on a few key domains (namely digital forensic and Internet child sex abuse prevention) that has explored the significant psychological trauma caused by exposure to extreme content. This body of literature emphasizes the importance of gaining clarity on the nature of trauma that is caused and the role of different forms of media on traumatic outcomes (e.g., observing Reddit forums vs., watching beheading videos). However, this review also identifies a series of factors that can impact the degree of harm caused by exposure to this content. These factors include the nature of the content, individual traits, and the individual’s social and work environment. Overall, this REA has identified a range of immediate research needs to extend, or apply, this research to the DHS workforce. These include: 1. Disaggregating the relationship that exists between the various possible forms of trauma and the specific forms of media that are consumed. 2. Exploring the degree to which cognitive resilience strategies, such as those identified within Crime Scene Investigator (CSI) staff are effective. 3. Validate the degree to which organizational dynamics can negatively or positively impact the manifestation of trauma in the workforce. These include issues of culture and workload. The presence of these organizational barriers within DHS needs to be explored, and if present, mitigated. 4. While largely untested, several articles included suggestions for interventions that could increase resilience. These largely center on the importance of debriefing. Future research should investigate how effective debriefs can be structured and implemented within the DHS workforce to support the development of resilience by those who are exposed to such harmful content online. Impact on DHS capabilities: Research identified as part of this REA outlines the negative implications of individual trauma, and the important role of the organization in mitigating trauma. Specifically, factors at the organizational level such as workload management, job rotation, and organizational culture were identified as playing a potentially important role in protecting employees from trauma. Furthermore, some studies showed that experiences of secondary trauma stemming from exposure to traumatic imagery was correlated with turnover intentions. As such, to maintain a safe and effective workforce in the face of such extreme pressures, it is important that DHS emphasize the need to protect workers from the negative impacts of exposure to traumatic content and imagery.

Omaha: The National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center, University of Omaha, 2023. 30p.