By Michael Topper and Toshio Ferrazares

Latest Version Link ---Technology is integral to police departments, automating officer tasks, but inherently changing their time allocation. We investigate this by studying ShotSpotter, a technology that automates gunfire detection. Following a detection, officers are dispatched to the scene, thereby reallocating their time. We leverage this shock to officers’ time allocation using the rollout of ShotSpotter across Chicago police districts to study the effects on 911 call response. We find substantial consequences— officers are dispatched to calls slower (23%), arrive on-scene later (13%), and the probability of arrest is decreased 9%. Consequently, police departments must evaluate their resource capacities prior to implementing technologies. 

unpublished paper, 2024.

By Mitchell L. Doucette &Christa Green & Jennifer Necci Dineen & David Shapiro & Kerri M. Raissian

Over the past decade, large urban counties have implemented ShotSpotter, a gun fire detection technology, across the USA. It uses acoustic listening devices to identify discharged firearms’ locations. We examined the effect of ShotSpotter with a pooled, cross sectional time-series analysis within the 68 large metropolitan counties in the USA from 1999 to 2016. We identified ShotSpotter implementation years through publicly available media. We used a Poisson distribution to model the impact of ShotSpotter on firearm homicides, murder arrests, and weapons arrests. ShotSpotter did not display protective effects for all outcomes. Counties in states with permit-to-purchase firearm laws saw a 15% reduction in firearm homicide incidence rates; counties in states with right-to-carry laws saw a 21% increase in firearm homicide incidence rates. Results suggest that implementing ShotSpotter technology has no significant impact on firearm related homicides or arrest outcomes. Policy solutions may represent a more cost-effective measure to reduce urban firearm violence.

Journal of Urban Health, 2021.

By Veronica A. Pear, Mona A. Wright, Aaron B. Shev, Garen J. Wintemute & Rose M. C. Kagawa 

Background: The prevalence and characteristics of handgun purchasers’ criminal charge histories have never been described for a large population of firearm owners, but such information is critical to understanding risk factors for subsequent violence in this population. We sought to characterize legal handgun purchasers in California and compare this group to the state population, to quantify the proportion with a criminal charge history at purchase, and to identify modifiable factors associated with having such a history.

Methods: This cross-sectional study of all 79,927 legal handgun purchasers aged 21–49 years in California in 2001 used log-linear generalized additive models to identify factors associated with having a criminal charge history at purchase. Subjects are from a longitudinal study of incident criminal activity among handgun purchasers.

Results: The majority (91.03%) of purchasers were male; whites were overrepresented and Hispanics were underrepresented relative to their population size. At the time of purchase, 16.68%  had a criminal charge history and 10.71% had a criminal conviction. Among men with such a history, 31.28% had been charged with a violent crime and 16.54% had been charged with a firearm-related crime. The strongest factor associated with having a criminal charge history was redeeming a pawned handgun (prevalence ratio: 1.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.71, 1.93).

Conclusions: Despite California’s stringent firearm purchase laws, more than 1-in-6 handgun purchasers had a criminal charge history at purchase. This proportion may be higher in states with less restrictive firearm purchasing eligibility criteria.

Injury Epidemiology volume 8, Article number: 7 (2021) 

By Alaina De Biasi, Anthony A. Braga, Brad Velasquez & Garen Wintemute 

Background: Privately made firearms (PMFs) or “ghost guns” are homemade, unserialized, untraceable firearms that have been increasingly used in violent crime in the United States. Very little is known about the types of PMFs recovered by law enforcement agencies and the crimes associated with these recoveries. This lack of information limits effective violence prevention policies and practices. Comparative analysis of PMF recoveries in specific cities helps clarify whether local PMF patterns and characteristics vary or reflect more general trends. This research advances epidemiological understanding of emergent violent gun injury prevention challenges by identifying variations in recovered PMF types and use in violent, drug, and weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles and San Diego, California.

Methods: Conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) identifies patterns among observations (i.e., case configurations) and calculates their probability associated with a given outcome. CACC was used to identify the most common types of PMFs recovered by the Los Angeles (LAPD) and San Diego (SDPD) police departments. For each department and offense type, case configurations with above-average probabilities of offense involvement were determined. Comparisons across departments were made to identify similarities and differences in PMF characteristics and usage.

Results: PMFs were more likely to be involved in violent and weapon-related offenses in Los Angles but more likely to be involved in drug-related offenses in San Diego. In both cities, the 9 mm Polymer 80 handgun was the dominant PMF. However, 9 mm handguns were most likely to be involved in weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles compared to 0.40 handguns in San Diego. Furthermore, large-caliber handguns tended to display above-average probabilities of involvement in violent and drug offenses in Los Angeles. Long guns were represented in case configurations with above-average probabilities of involvement in substantive crimes, including violence.

Conclusions: Comparative analyses of PMF recovery patterns in Los Angeles and San Diego reveal meaningful contextual variations in PMF characteristics and suggest intentional firearm type selections by offenders. The results support increased regulation of PMFs and highlight the importance of efforts to identify and disrupt the illicit supply of large-caliber PMF handguns and PMF long guns.

Injury Epidemiology volume 11, Article number: 17 (2024)

By Michael Siegel, Devon Dunn , Faizah Shareef , Miriam Neufeld , Claire Boine 

Background: No previous study has identified the specific brands of guns owned by gun owners. This study aimed to (1) ascertain and describe patterns of brand- and model-specific gun ownership among US gun owners; and (2) investigate the relationship between gun owners’ brand and model preferences and their attitudes towards common firearm violence prevention policies.

Methods: Using a national, pre-recruited internet panel of US adults in 2019, we surveyed gun owners (N = 2086) to ascertain their opinions regarding firearm violence prevention policies and to assess the brands and models of guns that they owned.

Results: Brand-specific gun ownership was highly concentrated and was dominated by three pistol brands, two revolver brands, three rifle brands, and three shotgun brands. There was wide variation in policy attitudes among owners of different gun brands, but little variation among owners of different gun types (i.e., pistols, rifles, revolvers, shotguns). We were able to identify the specific gun models owned by 1218 (59.4%) of the gun owners. Based on the classification of these gun models into three types we categorized the gun ownership pattern of the sample as 33.4% recreational, 45.5% self-defense, and 21.1% tactical. There were marked differences in support for firearm-related policies among the three groups, with support generally highest among the Recreation group and lowest among the Tactical group.

Conclusion: We conclude that gun brands and models are strong predictors of a gun owner’s attitudes regarding firearm-related policies. This information could help public health practitioners develop segment-specific communications that will appeal to each group to more effectively engage gun owners in firearm violence prevention.

Inj Epidemiol 2021 Mar 22;8(1):12.

By André Duffles Teixeira Aranega, Ariel Faccioli Fernandes

Grounded on an extensive literature review derived from evidence-based studies (e.g., scientific articles, institutional and technical reports, journalistic evidence, academic books, and book chapters), our article develops a qualitative analysis to address the following question: to what extent do the strategic motivations of states and organized crime groups converge/diverge in the context of the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict? This article is divided into three parts. The initial section delves into the interconnections between illicit markets and armed conflicts. Secondly, after acknowledging the background of organized crime in both countries and the emergence of the current Russo-Ukrainian war, it highlights the implications of this conflict on the dynamics of illicit markets. Finally, it analyzes the strategic motivations of states and organized crime within this setting, as well as its points of convergence and divergence. This research potentially explores the frequently wicked ties of (inter)national politics and criminal adaptation during (post-)war times in Eastern Europe and within the international system.

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(2): pp. 48–60. 2024.

By Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, and Charles Lewis, and William Yaworsky

This article explains some of the mechanisms through which corruption by high-level Mexican politicians and other organized crime members is facilitated in the United States through money laundering operations. The analysis is based on information contained in court records related to key money laundering cases, as well as in news articles and reports from law enforcement agencies. These materials highlight the interrelationships among U.S. drug use, cartel activities in Mexico, human rights abuses, Mexican political corruption, and money laundering in the United States. This work demonstrates the pervasive use of legitimate businesses and fronts in the United States as a disguise for criminal activity. Finally, it provides recommendations for a reformation of policies and penalties directed toward U.S. institutions and persons that facilitate money laundering.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 64–78. 2024

By Roberto Uchôa de Oliveira Santos

In recent decades, the global debate on gun control has been prominent, with many countries adopting more restrictive policies. Brazil followed this trend by implementing stringent measures in 2003; however, the presidency of Jair Bolsonaro in 2019 introduced normative changes aimed at facilitating public access to firearms and ammunition. Throughout his term, the legal firearms market doubled, allowing access to weaponry previously restricted to the general public. The analyzed hypothesis suggests that these normative changes, especially those related to the quantity and authorization of acquisition of previously restricted firearms, altered the types of firearms in circulation, strengthening the interaction between legal and illegal markets. Using data from the mandatory firearms re-registration, a total of 962,782 firearms were analyzed. The assessment of the increase in circulation of these firearms in the illegal market was conducted through the analysis of seizures in the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, revealing a significant growth in seizures of these types of firearms, possibly correlated with the increase in their circulation. Three police investigations were selected to exemplify how the connection between markets intensified, allowing criminals to obtain firearms in the legal market that were previously only accessible through international trafficking or diversion from state agencies.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 16–29. 2024

By Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz , Rocco Pallin , Matthew Miller , Deborah Azrael , Garen J Wintemute

Objective: To describe the prevalence of and factors associated with firearm ownership; the types, subtypes, and quantity of firearms owned; and when, where and why firearms were acquired in California.

Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of a state-representative, probability-based, internet survey of California adults was conducted in September-October 2018 (n=2558; completion rate 49%). Household firearm ownership was ascertained for all respondents; personal firearm ownership was ascertained only among respondents who reported living in a home with firearms; and information on the types and quantity of firearms owned and details about recently acquired firearms came from firearm owners only.

Findings: Roughly one in four (25%, 95% CI 22% to 28%) California adults live in a home with a firearm, including 4.2 million adults-14% (95% CI 13% to 16%) of the adult population who personally own a firearm. These owners collectively own an estimated 19.9 million firearms (8.9 million handguns). Approximately half (48%, 95% CI 34% to 61%) of the firearm stock in California is owned by the 10% (95% CI 6% to 14%) of owners who own 10 or more firearms, though more than half (54%, 95% CI 47% to 62%) of owners in the state own only one or two firearms. Most (69%, 95% CI 63% to 75%) owners purchased their last firearm from a firearm retailer, usually a handgun purchased primarily for protection against people.

Conclusion: This study provides the most detailed and up-to-date information available on firearm ownership and acquisition in California. Results can inform firearm violence prevention efforts and public health, safety, and policy development in California and nationally.

Injury Prevention, Volume 26, Issue 6, 2020.

By Julia P. Schleimer , Rose M. C. Kagawa and Hannah S. Laqueur

Background: Firearms are the most lethal method of suicide and account for approximately half of all suicide deaths nationwide. We describe associations between firearm purchasing characteristics and firearm suicide. Methods: Data on all legal handgun transactions in California from 1996 to 2015 were obtained from the California Department of Justice Dealer’s Record of Sale database. Handgun purchasers were linked to mortality data to identify those who died between 1996 and 2015. To account for variation in timing and duration of observation time, analyses were stratified by birth cohort. The primary analysis focused on those aged 21–25 in 1996. A secondary analysis tested associations among those aged 50–54 in 1996. Using incidence density sampling, purchasers who died by firearm suicide (cases) were each gender-matched to 5 purchasers (controls) who remained at risk at the case’s time of death. We examined the characteristics of purchasers and transactions, focusing on the transaction closest in time to the case’s death. Data were analyzed with conditional logistic regression. Results: There were 390 firearm suicides among the younger cohort and 512 firearm suicides among the older cohort. Across both cohorts, older age at first purchase and the purchase of a revolver were associated with a greater risk of firearm suicide. For example, among the younger cohort, those who purchased a revolver versus a semiautomatic pistol had 1.78 times the risk of firearm suicide (95% CI 1.32, 2.40) in multivariable models. Other associations varied across cohorts, suggesting cohort or age effects in purchasing patterns. Conclusions: Findings add to the evidence on firearm suicide risk and may help inform prevention strategies and future research.

Injury Epidemiology  2021. 8(68)

By Sonja A. Swanson,  Matthew Miller, Yifan Zhang, Lea Prince, Erin E. Holsinger, Zachary Templeton and David M. Studdert

Background: Little is known about the voluntary divestment of firearms among US firearm owners. Here, we aim to estimate the proportion of handgun owners who divest their handguns in the years following their initial acquisition; examine the timing, duration, and dynamics of those divestments; and describe the characteristics of those who divest. Methods: We use data from the Longitudinal Study of Handgun Ownership and Transfer, a cohort of registered voters in California with detailed information on 626,756 adults who became handgun owners during the 12-year study period, 2004–2016. For the current study, persons were followed from the time of their initial handgun acquisition until divestment, loss to follow-up, death, or the end of the study period. We describe the cumulative proportion who divest overall and by personal and area-level characteristics. We also estimate the proportion who reacquired handguns among persons who divested. Results: Overall, 4.5% (95% CI 4.5–4.6) of handgun owners divested within 5 years of their first acquisition, with divestment relatively more common among women and among younger adults. Among those who divested, 36.6% (95% CI 35.8–37.5) reacquired a handgun within 5 years. 

Injury Epidemiology 9(2)   2022.

By Marian E Betz , Lauren A Rooney , Leslie M Barnard , Bonnie J Siry-Bove , Sara Brandspigel , Megan McCarthy , Kate Simeon , Lauren Meador , Frederick P Rivara , Ali Rowhani-Rahbar , Christopher E Knoepke

Background: Reducing firearm access during times of risk is a key component of suicide prevention, including the person at risk voluntarily, temporarily storing firearms outside the home. However, this approach relies on the participation of storage providers (ranges/retailers and law enforcement agencies (LEAs)). Our objective was to describe stakeholders' views and experiences surrounding voluntary, temporary out-of-home firearm storage for suicide prevention.

Method: We conducted individual interviews with (1) firearm ranges/retailers; (2) LEAs (in Colorado or Washington State); and (3) state/national organizations involved in policy development or enactment; public health; or firearm rights. Transcripts were analyzed using a team-based mixed inductive-deductive approach.

Results: Across 100 interviews (October-May 2021), potential storage providers were supportive of voluntary storage programs, often reporting a desire to help their customers and community. However, potential storage suppliers cited civil liability, regulatory, and legal concerns associated with storing and/or returning firearms (to people who had previously expressed suicide risk). Stakeholders offered suggested strategies meant to address liability and increase storage accessibility.

Conclusions: Understanding stakeholder views supports the development of acceptable, feasible programs for out-of-home firearm storage during times of suicide risk. Clarification of existing regulations or the creation of new policies is necessary to address potential providers' concerns.

Suicide and Life-Threatening BehaviorVolume 52, Issue 4Aug 2022Pages597-831

By Everytown Research and Policy

Beginning in 2020, the destabilizing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic led to social isolation, economic struggles, and worsening mental health across the country. Though suicide rates across the nation had declined from 2019 to 2020,1 they began to increase in 2021, and veterans were not immune to this trend. More veterans died by suicide in 2021 than in 2020,3 studies show that veterans saw a higher incidence of mental health concerns than before the pandemic. By 2021, 72 percent of veteran suicides involved firearms—the highest proportion in over 20 years. With an average of 18 veterans dying by suicide in the United States each day, 13 of them by firearm, we cannot address veteran suicide without talking about guns. Veterans confront unique challenges during their service and face new ones when they return to civilian life. And these challenges are not always what might be expected. While many assume that suicide in veterans is associated with their time while deployed veterans who served during the wars in Iraq in Afghanistan who were not deployed6 had higher suicide rates than those who were deployed. But one thing is clear: addressing the unique role guns play is an integral part of efforts to end veteran suicide. It is crucial to pursue policies that can protect against veteran suicide, including disrupting a person’s access to a firearm when they are in crisis through secure gun storage, storing a gun outside the home, using Extreme Risk laws; raising awareness about the risks of firearm access; addressing upstream factors that can lead to veteran suicide; and ensuring that we have timely data about the basic aspects of this crisis.

New York: Everytown Research and Policy 2024.