By André Duffles Teixeira Aranega, Ariel Faccioli Fernandes

Grounded on an extensive literature review derived from evidence-based studies (e.g., scientific articles, institutional and technical reports, journalistic evidence, academic books, and book chapters), our article develops a qualitative analysis to address the following question: to what extent do the strategic motivations of states and organized crime groups converge/diverge in the context of the current Russo-Ukrainian conflict? This article is divided into three parts. The initial section delves into the interconnections between illicit markets and armed conflicts. Secondly, after acknowledging the background of organized crime in both countries and the emergence of the current Russo-Ukrainian war, it highlights the implications of this conflict on the dynamics of illicit markets. Finally, it analyzes the strategic motivations of states and organized crime within this setting, as well as its points of convergence and divergence. This research potentially explores the frequently wicked ties of (inter)national politics and criminal adaptation during (post-)war times in Eastern Europe and within the international system.

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(2): pp. 48–60. 2024.

By David Lochhead, Tidiani Diakité, Roberto Sollazzo, Saikou Sow, Raoul Sumo Tayo, Leonard Tettey

The use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in West Africa expanded dramatically between 2014 and 2022. As of 2022, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria were heavily affected by these weapons, while Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo suffered from their use as an emerging threat. IED-building networks have established material and training links across conflict theatres in West and Central Africa, including the Lake Chad Basin, where armed groups have used IEDs extensively. IED designs have remained constant and inexpensive throughout the West Africa region, making them attractive for use in attacks against domestic and international security forces, UN peacekeepers, and civilians. The Small Arms Survey collected data on more than 2,200 IED-related incidents between March 2013 and September 2022, including the type, date, and location of these events. Information on perpetrators, their targets, and more than 6,600 casualties from deaths and injuries was also collected (Small Arms Survey, 2022). The data was collected through research undertaken in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, and Niger, as well as desk research and remote interviews concerning Benin, Chad, and Nigeria. Where relevant from a comparative perspective, discussion of other regions that have countries with IED incidents or components occurs throughout the Report, such as those in North Africa, Central Africa, East Africa, and the Middle East. Most IED incidents analysed during this study involved IEDs containing explosive components or precursors specifically manufactured for the commercial extractive and construction sectors. Chemical products such as ammonium nitrate (AN), manufactured and supplied for bulk mining explosive emulsions, have entered IED-building networks, and are sourced principally from Ghana and Nigeria. Commercial explosives in bulk, including their precursors and accessories such as electric initiators and detonating cords, are diverted from the legal to illicit markets. This diversion primarily fulfils demand from the largely unregulated artisanal gold mining sector across West and Central Africa. A small subset of this diverted material also provisions IED construction. Captured, stolen, and recovered explosive ordnance—including legacy anti-vehicle mines trafficked from Chad, Libya, and possibly Sudan—also constitutes a source of IED components. Coordinated action among affected, source, and transit states is required to prevent armed groups and criminals from accessing commercial explosive materials and other IED components. Such action can involve: national stocktaking exercises; the development of national and regional counter-IED (C-IED) strategies; monitoring, information-sharing, and coordination mechanisms; regulatory modernization and harmonization;  engagement with artisanal mining associations, the mining and explosives industry, states, and regional trade blocs in pursuit of regulatory reform; and efforts to establish minimum standards for bulk and individual traceability of commercial explosives. Reducing the recovery of explosive ordnance requires renewed programmatic investment in clearing minefields and explosive remnants of war across the Sahe   

Geneva, SWIT:  Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies , 2023.  124p.

By Anthony A Braga , Rod K Brunson , Philip J Cook , Brandon Turchan , Brian Wade

New York City (NYC) has experienced large reductions in violent crime over the last two decades, but gun-related violence continues to pose a threat to public safety. Despite strong gun laws, high-risk individuals in NYC neighborhoods are unfortunately still able to access and misuse firearms. This research analyzes NYC's underground gun market by closely examining the flow of guns into the two boroughs where gun violence and crime gun recoveries are most prevalent: the Bronx and Brooklyn. A mixed methods approach is utilized that consists of an assessment of firearms trace data and in-depth interviews with individuals considered to be at high risk for involvement in gun violence. Findings suggest that guns recovered in the Bronx and Brooklyn were significantly more likely to originate in states with less restrictive gun laws and more likely to have changed ownership in unregulated transactions relative to guns recovered elsewhere in NYC. Interviews revealed three primary avenues for illegal guns reaching Bronx and Brooklyn neighborhoods: high-volume gun brokers, middlemen, and individuals who make episodic low-level acquisitions from straw purchasers in other states. No subjects identified theft as a meaningful source of crime guns.

J Urban Health (2021) 98:596–608

By Daniel Semenza and Richard Stansfield

America is entrenched in an ongoing epidemic of gun violence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, homicides and nonfatal shootings spiked, reaching unprecedented levels in many US cities. Gun violence remains exceptionally high around the country, although there is evidence that homicides are beginning to decrease in cities like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis. Generally, the US has a homicide rate roughly 25 times higher than most peer industrialized countries and contains about 40 percent of the global stock of civilian firearms. Almost all of the firearms that end up on the streets are first sold through legally appointed federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) following manufacture or import. Given the unique ease of access to firearms in the US, there is a growing sense of urgency to better understand how crime guns are acquired and from where they originate to support much stronger supply-side efforts to address gun violence.

Prior research has focused extensively on the large “secondary market” for firearms, where guns are transferred between unlicensed persons or to those legally prohibited from buying a firearm. Most guns used in a crime are illegally acquired through secondary market channels via small-scale purchases, middlemen, and “fences” that supply weapons to local illicit markets. In contrast, the focus of our recent work has been on the “primary market,” which includes the legal retail sale of firearms from federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) to private consumers. The primary market directly feeds the illicit secondary market for firearms.

Albany, NY: Rockefeller Institute of Government, 2023. 26p.

By Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane

Southern Africa is awash with illegal firearms fuelling violence, conflict, and organized crime. Guns and ammunition are a currency in an underworld of gangs, hitmen, drug syndicates, extortion, kidnappings, wildlife crime, and bloody turf wars in the informal transport sector.

While the exact figure for the number of illicit firearms in circulation in the SADC region is not readily available, it is estimated that there are about 3.8 million unregistered illegal firearms in circulation in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Many of these come from civilian gun owners whose firearms have been lost or stolen, but many others come from state institutions. It is not known exactly how many firearms have been lost and stolen from the police, military, and other government departments, and a lack of oversight means that many losses and thefts go unrecorded….While the South African Police do release some information on firearms lost or stolen each year, they do not release or do not have, figures on firearms missing from police evidence stocks and of firearms earmarked for destruction.

This report is based on extensive research and fieldwork conducted in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. The report examines the sources, markets, and types of firearms inflaming conflict and organized crime in the region.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2021. 81p.

Editors: Ernesto U. Savona and Marina Mancuso

Project FIRE – Fighting Illicit firearms trafficking Routes and actors at European level (www. fireproject.eu) – was carried out with the financial support of the European Commission, DG Home Affairs, within the Prevention of and the Fight against Crime (ISEC) Programme. The research is an exploratory study on the illicit trafficking of firearms (ITF) in the EU. Based on the results obtained, it also provides recommendations on how to improve the fight against and the prevention of ITF. For the purposes of the study, ITF has been defined as every case in which the illicit acquisition, sale, delivery, movement or transfer of firearms, their parts or ammunition occur from, to, or within the territory of the EU.

Milano: Transcrime – Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2017. 116p.

By William Godnick

This monograph is a modified version of a background paper prepared for a conference that took place in Ottawa, Canada in May 2001, bringing together representatives of the Member States of the Organization of American States (OAS), non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society to discuss issues related to the July 2001 United Nations (UN) Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (hereafter referred to as the UN Conference). This version takes into account the Programme of Action (PoA) adopted by the UN Member States as well as other emerging or consolidated initiatives in the western hemisphere.

British American Security Information Council, International Alert and Saferworld, 2002. 26p.

By William Godnick

This monograph is a modified version of a background paper prepared for a conference that took place in Ottawa, Canada in May 2001, bringing together representatives of the Member States of the Organization of American States (OAS), non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society to discuss issues related to the July 2001 United Nations (UN) Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (hereafter referred to as the UN Conference). This version takes into account the Programme of Action (PoA) adopted by the UN Member States as well as other emerging or consolidated initiatives in the western hemisphere.

British American Security Information Council, International Alert and Saferworld, 2002. 26p.

By Kim Cragin and Bruce Hoffman

This report provides an analysis of black-market and gray-market sources of small arms, explosives, equipment, and material that are available to terrorist and insurgent organizations in Columbia with particular attention given to the sources and methods used by covert and/or illegal suppliers and purchasers to acquire, sell, buy, transfer, ship, and receive these items.

The extent and type of weaponry currently available to terrorists, insurgents, and other criminals are enormous. These groups have exploited and developed local, regional, and global supply channels to traffic in munitions and equipment worldwide. In the country of Columbia, the drug trade, a protracted insurgent conflict, nationwide corruption, and small arms proliferation have contributed to the political instability and violence in the country over the past century with small arms proliferation among the most serious of the problems.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2003. 208p.

By Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2013: Everyday Dangers explores the many faces of armed violence outside the context of conflict. Chapters on the use of firearms in intimate partner violence, the evolution of gangs in Nicaragua, Italian organized crime groups, and trends in armed violence in South Africa describe the dynamics and effects of gun violence in the home and on the street. The ‘weapons and markets’ section draws attention to the use of specific weapons by particular armed actors, such as drug-trafficking organizations and insurgents. The section includes chapters on the prices of arms and ammunition at illicit markets in Lebanon, Pakistan, and Somalia; illicit weapons recovered in Mexico and the Philippines; and the impacts of improvised explosive devices on civilians. Chapters on the Second Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action and the ammunition demilitarization industry round out the 2013 volume.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2013. 335p.

By Savannah de Tessières

Measuring Illicit Arms Flows: Niger examines the measurement of illicit arms flows in Niger in the context of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), specifically SDG 16. Based on field research conducted in Niger, the Briefing Paper maps the national and international bodies that collect data relevant to monitoring the evolution of illicit arms flows in and through Niger. It also discusses the relevance of Indicator 16.4.2 and suggests ways to improve the monitoring of progress towards the achievement of SDG Target 16.4 in Niger, and more widely in Africa

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, 2017. 12p.