By Alexander D. McCourt,  Cassandra K. Crifasi, Elizabeth A. Stuart, Jon S. Vernick, Rose M. C.Kagawa, Garen J. Wintemute and Daniel W. Webster

Objectives. To estimate and compare the effects of state background check policies on firearm-related mortality in 4 US states. Methods. Annual data from 1985 to 2017 were used to examine Maryland and Pennsylvania, which implemented point-of-sale comprehensive background check (CBC)laws for handgun purchasers ; Connecticut. which adopted a handgun purchaser licensing law; and Missouri, which repealed a similar law. Using synthetic control methods, we estimated the effects of these laws on homicide and suicide rates stratified by firearm involvement. Results. There was no consistent relationship between CBC laws and mortality rates. There we re-estimated decreases in firearm homicide (27.8%) and firearm suicide (23.2%–40.5%) rates associated with Connecticut’s law. There were estimated increases in firearm homicide (47.3%), non-firearm homicide (18.1%), and firearm suicide (23.5%)rates associated with Missouri’s repeal. Conclusions. Purchaser licensing laws coupled with CBC requirements were consistently associated with lower firearm homicide and suicide rates, but CBC laws alone were not. Public Health Implications. Our results contribute to a body of research showing tha tCBC laws are not associated with reductions in firearm-related deaths unless they are coupled with handgun purchaser licensing laws. 

American  Journal of   Public Health.2020;110:1546–1552. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305822

By Cassandra K. Crifasi,  Alexander D. McCourt and Daniel W. Webster

There is a major flaw in federal firearm laws in the U.S. and in most states’ laws; prohibited purchasers can acquire firearms from unlicensed private sellers without subjecting themselves to background checks and record-keeping requirements. Violent criminals and traffickers exploit this weakness with fatal consequences. A logical and popular approach to fixing this flaw is to extend background check requirements and procedures used for transfers by licensed firearm dealers to transfers from private unlicensed sellers. Research shows that these so-called comprehensive background check (CBC) laws curtail the diversion of guns for criminal use, but have not resulted in significant reductions in firearm-related deaths. Fortunately, there is good evidence showing that when states augment CBC laws with mandatory licensing or permitting of handgun purchasers, lives are saved by lower rates of firearm-involved homicides6, and suicides. Why are comprehensive background checks more effective when augmented by handgun purchaser licensing? The most likely reasons center on the more direct interface between prospective purchasers and law enforcement and more robust systems for verifying the identity of applicants and their criminal records. In most states with handgun purchaser licensing, applicants must apply in person at a law enforcement agency and be fingerprinted. In some cases, applicants must also provide proof of completion of certified safety training. These procedures may deter individuals who might otherwise make impulsive decisions to acquire a gun to harm others or themselves, and in fact studies have found that the presence of licensing laws is associated with lower levels of gun homicides and suicides. Further, the licensing requirements may also deter straw purchases (when an eligible person buys a firearm for a prohibited person or for someone who does not want their name attached to the transfer).  

Baltimore, MD: The Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, 2019. 8p.

By Michael Siegel

In 2017, there were 14,542 firearm-related homicide deaths in the United States. Despite constituting only 13% of the U.S. population, Black persons made up 59% of these victims. Many states have addressed the problem of firearm-related homicide by enacting stronger firearm laws. While many studies have already been conducted on the effectiveness of various firearm laws in reducing overall population homicide rates, the vast majority of these studies do not distinguish between victims of different races/ethnicity. In failing to do so, these studies assume that state-level firearm laws produce homogeneous effects, even while Black communities continue to bear the undue burden of firearm violence. The purpose of this research was to fill this critical gap by rigorously evaluating the differential impact of state-level firearm laws on homicide rates among White, Black, and Hispanic populations. This project sought to answer two major research questions: (1) Is there heterogeneity in the effect of different state firearm laws on homicide rates by race/ethnicity? (2) To what extent are any differences in the impact of firearm laws by race/ethnicity explained by contextual differences in homicide victimization across urban vs. non-urban settings, as opposed to differences among racial groups per se?

Report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2020. 13p.

By The Philadelphia Interagency Research and Public Safety Collaborative (PIRPSC)

Firearm violence in Philadelphia is a public health crisis. In 2021, Philadelphia suffered a record number of fatal criminal shooting victims (501) and non-fatal criminal shooting victims (1,850). Philadelphia has also experienced extraordinary recent increases in arrests for illegal firearm possession and crime guns recovered, while the Commonwealth has recorded record gun sales in 2020. Despite this crisis in gun violence, shooting arrest rates remain low, conviction rates in illegal gun possession cases have been declining since 2015, and conviction rates in shooting cases declined between 2015 and 2019 and increased modestly in 2020 and 2021.

Firearm violence in Philadelphia is a racial justice crisis. Shootings disproportionately impact Black communities: in Philadelphia over 80% of shooting victims and 79% of arrestees have been Black since 2015. Both victims and arrestees overwhelmingly come from disadvantaged neighborhoods that are majority non-white, have high rates of poverty and unemployment, and less likely to have a high school degree or diploma. Endemic violence in these communities means that the vast majority of those arrested for gun violence have themselves been previously traumatized, often as a witness to previous violent acts; over 80% have previously accessed or been screened for behavioral health services through the City. Because the causes of gun violence are complex and varied, so are the solutions. Addressing the gun violence crisis requires a comprehensive strategy with elements of enforcement, intervention, and prevention to achieve both short-term and long-term reductions in gun crimes. Collaboration among city agencies, including law enforcement and non-law enforcement agencies is critical to successfully implement such a comprehensive strategy. Reviews of evidence-based practices, along with data analysis of local data, have helped us to come to key findings related to gun violence in Philadelphia and have informed recommendations to stem that violence. Readers are encouraged to read both the summary, below, as well as the report in its entirety to understand the context of our recommendations as well as the limitations in both our data and data analyses. 

Philadelphia: Philadelphia Interagency Research and Public Safety Collaborative (PIRPSC)    2022. 196p.  

By Giffords Law Center

The United States accounts for just 4% of the global population but a startling 25% of the world’s prisoners. The mass incarceration crisis that is bloating our nation’s prisons disproportionately affects Black and Brown Americans, tearing apart families and communities—often because of crimes that didn’t involve violence. Data has shown that this “tough on crime” mentality doesn’t actually reduce crime or enhance public safety. While the public is increasingly aware of the harmful impact of failed policies like the war on drugs, a lesser-known yet still significant driver of mass incarceration is the criminal legal system’s response to nonviolent illegal gun possession. Tens of thousands of Americans are arrested and incarcerated each year on nonviolent weapon possession charges. Given that the majority of violent crime in any city is driven by a very small percentage of individuals, we can improve public safety and reduce mass incarceration by rethinking our approach to nonviolent gun possession. This report explores prosecutor-led diversion programs and makes the case for expanding this promising alternative to incarceration.

Washington, DC: Giffords Law Center, 2021. 3 p,

By Rosanna Smart, Andrew R. Morral, Sierra Smucker, Samantha Cherney, Terry L. Schell

In this report, part of the RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers seek objective information about what the scientific literature reveals about the likely effects of various gun laws. In this second edition of an earlier work, the authors add five gun policies to the 13 examined in the original analysis and expand the study time frame to incorporate a larger body of research. With those adjustments, the authors synthesize the available scientific data on the effects of 18 policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas where more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

Monterey CA: RAND, 2020. 412p.

 By Michael Siegel, Kathleen Grene and Amani Dharani 

  Gun violence continues to be a major persistent problem in the United States. According to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. firearm homicide and suicide rates increased by more than 8% from 2020 to 2021. Approximately 47,000 gun-related deaths occurred in 2021,of which more than 21,000 were homicides. This fall we sought to examine whether there existed a new path on gun safety issues to reduce this high rate of gun violence and death. In Part One, released last month the research identified common ground between gun owners and non-gun owners based on the principle that gun safety policies should keep guns out of the hands of violent criminals. This report “Finding the Common Ground in Gun Safety: Part 2,” built off that common ground by identifying a new package of policies ensuring people at high risk for violence cannot access guns while protecting law-abiding gun owners' Second Amendment rights. This new research and overall package of policies comes at a critical juncture for gun safety issues in the United States. The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen opened the door for courts to potentially strike down “may issue” laws which give law enforcement wide discretion in evaluating permit applications. May issue laws in eight other states are at risk. At the same time recent legislative action at the federal level has shown that gun safety laws are no longer a third rail in American politics and that common ground exists. The “Bipartisan Safer Communities Act” expanded background checks provided funding for red flag laws and strengthened prohibitions on domestic abusers and passed with bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress. However key loopholes in regulation still exist that allow people who are at high risk of violence the ability to access guns. Against this backdrop and informed from the findings from Part One this study identifies gun safety policies that are effective, grounded in shared principles, and respect the rights of law-abiding gun owners. Together with Part One the overall research package identifies a new path forward for gun safety policies that can help save lives and meaningfully reduce gun violence in this country,

97 Percent, 2022. 35p.

By Michael Siegel, Kathleen Grene and Amani Dharani 

Gun violence is a serious problem in the United States. In 2021, there were approximately 47,000 gun-related deaths in the U.S., of which more than 21,000 were firearm homicides. Yet amid this clear and persistent problem, our institutions continue to grapple with how to address gun violence. The Supreme Court in the 2008 decision Heller v. District of Columbia established the constitutional right to keep a handgun in the home for self-defense. More than a decade later, this past June, the Court recognized the right to carry a handgun outside the home for self-defense, opening up new challenges to restrictions on who can carry firearms and where. In the same week, Congress passed the most significant gun safety legislation in nearly three decades, with the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act expanding background checks, providing funding for red flag laws, and strengthening prohibitions on domestic abusers. Against this push and pull, the perception of an intractable divide on gun policy – especially between gun owners and non-gun owners – persists. Yet as our previous research has demonstrated, there is a high level of support among gun owners for a number of gun violence prevention policies.  

97 Percent, 2022. 34p.

By The Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions

Gun violence is an ongoing public health crisis in the United States that impacts the health and well-being of all of us. In 2020, gun deaths reached the highest number ever recorded. According to data released by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 45,000 people died by gun violence in the U.S. As we struggled against the COVID-19 pandemic, a concurrent public health crisis intensified. Gun homicides rose dramatically across the country, increasing by 35% in just one year. Nearly 5,000 more lives were lost to gun homicide in 2020 than in 2019. Gun suicides remained at historically high levels. Guns were the leading cause of death among children and teens in 2020, accounting for more deaths than COVID-19, car crashes, or cancers.1 Coincident with the rise in gun-related deaths, 2020 was also a year of record gun sales. Millions of people, including many first-time purchasers, bought guns. Tens of thousands of these new guns turned up at crime scenes across the country—almost twice as many as in 2019.2 While it remains to be seen whether this surge in gun purchases contributed to the rise in gun violence over the long term, a strong body of research has identified drivers of gun violence—namely, easy access to guns and weaknesses in our country’s laws that create a patchwork of gun regulations. There are equitable, evidence-based solutions to prevent gun violence.

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  These solutions are supported by most people, including gun owners. In spite of their wide support, many policymakers have been unwilling to follow the evidence and enact policies that will save lives. The aim of this report is to illustrate the enormous toll gun violence has on our country. Ultimately, we strive to use these data to advocate for and implement life-saving policies and programs that will end the gun violence epidemic. This report builds off of “A Public Health Crisis Decades in the Making: A Review of 2019 CDC Gun Mortality Data” released by the Educational Fund to Stop Gun Violence in February 2021. Each year it is our mission to provide policymakers and the public the most accurate and up-to-date data on gun fatalities. This year’s report uses the CDC’s 2020 firearm fatality data, which only became available in late December 2021—an unacceptable delay that hampers potential responses to gun violence. We cannot solve a problem we cannot quantify. Without timely data, we lack the information we need to make the best possible decisions. Data collection and reporting related to gun violence must be more timely  

Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions, 2022. 40p.

By United States. Department of Justice. Office of Community Oriented Policing Services

From the Preface: "Nine mayors whose cities have experienced mass shootings in recent years attended the Winter Meeting of The U.S. Conference of Mayors, held in January 2020 in Washington, D.C. Their presence in that meeting offered an opportunity for them, as a group, to share both their experiences and their personal feelings about what was required of them as mayors. Their goal in that session was to alert their audience to the need to prepare for a mass shooting; as many veterans of these tragedies agree, the question must not be if your city will experience a mass shooting, but 'when'. This report captures many of the key points offered that day by those mayors and later by key city staff involved in the response to one of the deadliest mass shooting incidents in our history. It is intended to provide guidance on the preparation that should take place in anticipation of an incident occurring, the critical importance of communication during the response to an incident, and the wide range of tasks that must be anticipated in the incident's wake. Sadly, while it is offered to all mayors in the hope that they will never have to call upon the preparation that is urged, it is likely that in the months and years ahead we all will be reaching out to some who will."

U.S. Conference of Mayors. Washington D.C. January 2020. 20p.

By Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and Everytown for Gun Safety

In August 2020, loosely organized militias began to patrol Kenosha, Wisconsin, openly carrying guns in direct response to the demonstrations for racial equity in the city after the police shooting of Jacob Blake. One of those who answered a militia’s call-to-arms was Kyle Rittenhouse, a then 17-year-old from Illinois who wandered in Kenosha armed with an AR-15-style rifle. He patrolled the streets openly brandishing his long gun and, within hours of his arrival, had shot three people among the demonstrators, killing two. The violence in Kenosha may have been even worse had the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) not arrested two heavily armed individuals who had driven from Missouri to Kenosha — after the highly publicized shootings — allegedly “with the intention of possibly using the firearms on people.” The two men had attended a Trump rally in Kenosha and planned to continue on to Portland, Oregon. Both were members of the Missouri-based 417 Second Amendment Militia, and one reportedly said he was willing to “take action” if police were defunded. The fatal shootings in Kenosha came at the tail-end of a summer spike in demonstrations nationwide following multiple police shootings and the murder of George Floyd. While the rate of demonstrations per week in the United States has decreased since then, the country continues to witness demonstrations and to grapple with sometimes violent confrontations between counter-demonstrators. In the past year and a half, the sight of demonstrators and counter-demonstrators armed with firearms has

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  become more common, and the risk of violent escalation has remained high. This collaboration between the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) and Everytown for Gun Safety Support Fund (Everytown) presents quantitative research on demonstrations in the United States during the 18-month period from January 2020 through June 2021, documenting 560 events where demonstrators, counter-demonstrators, or other individuals or groups were present and carried or brandished firearms (see inset definition).

New York: Everytown for Gun Safety and Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), 2021. 17p.

By Aidan Johnston

The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) is maintaining a digital, searchable, centralized registry of guns and gun owners in violation of various federal prohibitions, as revealed by an ATF response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request by Gun Owners of America (GOA). In November of 2021, an internal ATF memo leaked by Gun Owners of America revealed that ATF had processed and digitized over 50,000,000 “out of business” records of gun dealers in FY 2021. This report was picked up by major pundits and news outlets including Fox News’ Tucker Carlson and the Blaze. This revelation prompted Representative Michael Cloud and 51 other members of the U.S. House of Representatives to send a letter to ATF asking more questions and demanding accountability.5 In response to that letter, ATF revealed to Congress that it currently maintains a database of 920,664,765 such records, of which 865,787,086 are in a digitized format as of November 2021.6 Unsurprisingly, ATF denied that this vast database constitutes a gun registry, which is explicitly prohibited by federal law....

Springfield, VA: Gun Owners of America, 2022. 32p.

By Megan. E. Collins; Susa T. Parker; Thomas L. Scott; Charles F. Wellford

Information is limited on how firearms move from legal possession to illegal possession and use in criminal activities, largely because of data collection capacity and a lack of recent, exhaustive recovery data across jurisdictions. This article includes both an analysis of firearms trace data and prisoner interviews across multiple jurisdictions: New Orleans, Louisiana, Prince George’s County, Maryland, and Chicago, Illinois. Findings indicate that recoveries and trace successes vary across jurisdictions and by type of crime. Jurisdiction regulations were associated with the proportion of guns purchased in state and time to recovery but not with purchaser characteristics. Interviews from imprisoned offenders in two jurisdictions revealed the most common method of obtaining a crime gun was to steal it or buy it off the street.

New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2017. 32p.

By Samantha Bricknell

In 2018 there were 847 reported incidents of firearm theft in which 2,425 firearms were stolen. This represents a 15 percent increase in incidents and a 35 percent increase in stolen firearms since 2008–09. Most thefts targeted residential premises with an average of three firearms stolen in each incident. The largest proportion of thefts occurred in regional parts of Australia, indicating a shift from major cities as the primary site of theft incidents. The majority of stolen firearms were in firearm safes at the time of the theft.

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2020. 29p.

By Roderic Broadhurst, Jack Foye, Chuxuan Jiang and Matthew Ball

This study provides a snapshot of the availability of weapons across eight omnibus or ‘High Street’ and 12 specialist darknet or illicit cryptomarkets between July and December 2019. Overall, 2,124 weapons were identified, of which 11 percent were found on niche markets. On all markets, weapons for sale included 1,497 handguns, 218 rifles, 41 submachine guns and 34 shotguns. Also available were ammunition (n=79), explosives (n=37) and accessories such as silencers (n=24). Omnibus markets also sold other weapons (n=70) such as tasers, pepper spray and knives, and digital products (n=112), mostly DIY weapon manuals, as well as chemical, biological, nuclear and radiological weapons (n=12). The data allowed for estimates of the cost of weapons and some description of the 215 vendors identified, 18 (8.4%) of whom were active across more than one market.

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2021. 20p.

By John Rorabacher

The Founding Fathers of the U.S., with good reason, were fearful of governments that did not submit to or grant individual human, natural rights. One of these was the right of self-defense. For these men, an armed society was a hedge against tyranny. The Second Amendment through debate and mis-transcription assumed a somewhat different character than that envisioned by the Founding Fathers. As a consequence, this amendment remained the focus of repeated contention until 2008, when the Supreme Court, for the first time, defined the individual rights of each citizen to defend him or herself. Nevertheless, today, the use of firearms in America, when viewed superficially, gives one the impression of a nation bent on destroying itself through unbridled homicide and suicide. This is borne out by the sheer number of deaths attributed to guns annually in America. However, sheer numbers can be deceiving and cannot be used for comparative purposes. In this paper, we examine the history of guns in the U.S., searching for the causation of gun-related homicide. We also examine Pieter Spierenburg's thesis that democracy came too early to America.

Barrie, ONT: Dark Horse Press, 2014. 134p.

By David E. Olson, Don Stemen, Kaitlyn Foust, Cynthia Guzman, Lisa Jacobs, Sophia Juarez, Holly Michalak, Avery Pankratz, and Amanda Ward

Loyola University Chicago’s Center for Criminal Justice Research, Policy and Practice, through the support of the Joyce Foundation, completed the most comprehensive, detailed analysis of the sentencing of those convicted of firearm possession offenses in Illinois to date. These offenses do not involve the use of a firearm in the commission of a violent crime or the unlawful discharge of a firearm. Rather, these convictions are for the possession of a firearm by individuals not legally authorized to possess or carry a firearm because of their age, having a prior felony conviction, or not applying for and receiving a license to carry a concealed handgun. Depending on the factor(s) that make the possession of a firearm illegal, the legal classifications and possible sentences range from Class 4 felonies (the least serious felony) to Class X felonies (the most serious felonies other than first degree murder), and carry sentences ranging from probation for up to 30 months to 30 years in prison. Out of all the arrests and convictions in Illinois for firearm-related offenses over the past decade, 72% have been for firearm possession offenses while 28% have been for the use of a firearm in the commission of a violent crime or illegal discharge of a firearm. Despite the concern over firearm violence, and increasingly punitive laws surrounding illegal firearm possession offenses implemented over the past 15 years, the lack of objective, detailed research limits the ability of practitioners and policy makers to assess the efficacy and impact of these approaches.

Chicago: Loyola University Chicago, Center for Criminal Justice Research, Policy and Practice, 2021. 33p.

By Peter Andrew Gregory

This dissertation analyzes the relationships between four state gun laws—universal background checks, waiting periods, may-issue permitting, and violent misdemeanor prohibitions—and firearm homicide and suicide rates among Blacks and Whites in the United States. Using eighteen years of publicly available data, the study examined relationships employing a generalized difference-in-difference linear regression model with fixed effects for states and years. The results indicate that state gun laws in the United States frequently affect mortality rates among Blacks and Whites in different ways. Waiting periods, for example, are associated with large reductions in firearm homicide rates among Blacks but not Whites; may-issue permitting is associated with moderate reductions in firearm homicide rates among Whites but not among Blacks. The study also identifies several statistically significant interactive effects between gun laws and factors such as poverty, police presence, and the density of federally licensed firearm dealers. The dissertation concludes by discussing the value of these findings for informing both public policy and scholarly research in policy analysis and public administration. Most importantly, I argue that policymakers and gun violence researchers must increase their efforts to frame and analyze gun violence in the United States through the lens of social equity.

Blacksburg, VA: Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 2022, 164p.

By Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence

According to the most recently available data, the retail gun dealers responsible for selling the majority of crime guns are a fraction of the total gun industry: about 90% of guns recovered by law enforcement are traced back to just five percent of licensed firearms dealers. Gun tracing enables law enforcement to identify the gun dealers with poor business practices responsible for diverting guns from the regulated market to the criminal market. However, the federal government's oversight of these dealers is limited. From October 2016 to October 2017, federal agents inspected only 11,000 of the more than 130,000 federal firearms licensees ("FFLs") in the United States — and cited over half the inspected FFLs for violations — yet revoked the licenses of less than one percent of them. The key takeaway: The federal government does not adequately ensure that the country's hundreds of thousands of FFLs sell guns lawfully and appropriately. Significant progress against gun trafficking and gun crime will be made only if local and state officials take action. Brady is proud to release "Combating Crime Guns: A Supply-Side Approach," a report that is intended to help state and local elected officials better understand:

• The issue of crime guns;

• The supply-side approach to gun violence prevention; and

• The various ways a supply-side approach may be implemented at the local level of government.

Washington DC: Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, 2021. 25p.

By Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence

America’s deadliest shootings are those we rarely discuss: Over half of all gun deaths are suicides. On average, 64 people die of gun suicide each day in America — more than firearm murders and unintentional shootings combined. Firearms are by far the most lethal method of suicide. Amid the backdrop of COVID-19 and record-breaking gun sales, unsecured firearms in gun-owning households risk an increase in suicide. This report analyzes the relationship between firearms and suicide to provide tangible solutions for policymakers, community organizers, and more to prevent gun suicide and save lives by focusing on:

• Communities uniquely impacted by firearm suicide, including youth and teens, men, Alaskan Native, American Indian, and Black youth, military-connected and LGBTQ+ communities, and more

• Policy solutions, including extreme risk laws, waiting periods, and child access prevention laws

• Public health solutions, including lethal means safety and awareness of safe storage options, like: trigger locks, lock boxes, gun vaults, safes, off-site storage, and “asking to save lives"

Washington, DC: Brady United Against Gun Violence, 2021.