AI and the Evolution of Biological National Security Risks: Capabilities, Thresholds, and Interventions

DREXEL, BILL; WITHERS, CALEB

From the document: "In 2020, COVID-19 brought the world to its knees, with nearly 29 million estimated deaths, acute social and political disruptions, and vast economic fallout. However, the event's impact could have been far worse if the virus had been more lethal, more transmissible, or both. For decades, experts have warned that humanity is entering an era of potential catastrophic pandemics that would make COVID-19 appear mild in comparison. History is well acquainted with such instances, not least the 1918 Spanish Flu, the Black Death, and the Plague of Justinian--each of which would have dwarfed COVID-19's deaths if scaled to today's populations. Equally concerning, many experts have sounded alarms of possible deliberate bioattacks in the years ahead. [...] This report aims to clearly assess AI's impact on the risks of biocatastrophe. It first considers the history and existing risk landscape in American biosecurity independent of AI disruptions. Drawing on a sister report, 'Catalyzing Crisis: A Primer on Artificial Intelligence, Catastrophes, and National Security,' this study then considers how AI is impacting biorisks across four dimensions of AI safety: new capabilities, technical challenges, integration into complex systems, and conditions of AI development. Building on this analysis, the report identifies areas of future capability development that may substantially alter the risks of large-scale biological catastrophes worthy of monitoring as the technology continues to evolve. Finally, the report recommends actionable steps for policymakers to address current and near-term risks of biocatastrophes."

CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY. 2024.