DREXEL, BILL; WITHERS, CALEB

From the document: "In 2020, COVID-19 brought the world to its knees, with nearly 29 million estimated deaths, acute social and political disruptions, and vast economic fallout. However, the event's impact could have been far worse if the virus had been more lethal, more transmissible, or both. For decades, experts have warned that humanity is entering an era of potential catastrophic pandemics that would make COVID-19 appear mild in comparison. History is well acquainted with such instances, not least the 1918 Spanish Flu, the Black Death, and the Plague of Justinian--each of which would have dwarfed COVID-19's deaths if scaled to today's populations. Equally concerning, many experts have sounded alarms of possible deliberate bioattacks in the years ahead. [...] This report aims to clearly assess AI's impact on the risks of biocatastrophe. It first considers the history and existing risk landscape in American biosecurity independent of AI disruptions. Drawing on a sister report, 'Catalyzing Crisis: A Primer on Artificial Intelligence, Catastrophes, and National Security,' this study then considers how AI is impacting biorisks across four dimensions of AI safety: new capabilities, technical challenges, integration into complex systems, and conditions of AI development. Building on this analysis, the report identifies areas of future capability development that may substantially alter the risks of large-scale biological catastrophes worthy of monitoring as the technology continues to evolve. Finally, the report recommends actionable steps for policymakers to address current and near-term risks of biocatastrophes."

CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY. 2024.

DREXEL, BILL; WITHERS, CALEB

From the document: "Since ChatGPT [Chat Generative Pre-Trained Transformer] was launched in November 2022, artificial intelligence (AI) systems have captured public imagination across the globe. ChatGPT's record-breaking speed of adoption--logging 100 million users in just two months--gave an unprecedented number of individuals direct, tangible experience with the capabilities of today's state-of-the-art AI systems. More than any other AI system to date, ChatGPT and subsequent competitor large language models (LLMs) have awakened societies to the promise of AI technologies to revolutionize industries, cultures, and political life. [...] This report aims to help policymakers understand catastrophic AI risks and their relevance to national security in three ways. First, it attempts to further clarify AI's catastrophic risks and distinguish them from other threats such as existential risks that have featured prominently in public discourse. Second, the report explains why catastrophic risks associated with AI development merit close attention from U.S. national security practitioners in the years ahead. Finally, it presents a framework of AI safety dimensions that contribute to catastrophic risks."

CENTER FOR A NEW AMERICAN SECURITY. JUN, 2024.

UNITED STATES. WHITE HOUSE OFFICE. BIDEN, JOSEPH R., JR.

From the webpage: "Critical infrastructure comprises the physical and virtual assets and systems so vital to the Nation that their incapacity or destruction would have a debilitating impact on national security, national economic security, or national public health or safety. It is diverse and complex, and includes distributed networks, varied organizational structures, operating models, interdependent systems, and governance constructs. The United States is in the midst of a generational investment in the Nation's infrastructure. This investment, and the emergence of new technologies, presents an opportunity to build for the future. In the 21st century, the United States will rely on new sources of energy, modes of transportation, and an increasingly interconnected and interdependent economy. This modernization effort will ensure critical infrastructure provides a strong and innovative economy, protects American families, and enhances our collective resilience to disasters before they happen -- creating a resilient Nation for generations to come. The United States also faces an era of strategic competition with nation-state actors who target American critical infrastructure and tolerate or enable malicious actions conducted by non-state actors. [...] This memorandum advances our national unity of effort to strengthen and maintain secure, functioning, and resilient critical infrastructure."

By Jane Duncan

In spite of Edward Snowden’s disclosures about government abuses of dragnet communication surveillance, the surveillance industry continues to expand around the world. Many people have become resigned to a world where they cannot have a reasonable expectation of privacy. In this open access book, the author looks at what can be done to rein in these powers and restructure how they are used beyond the limited and often ineffective reforms that have been attempted. Using southern Africa as a backdrop, and its liberation history, Jane Duncan examines what an anti-capitalist perspective on intelligence and security powers could look like. Are the police and intelligence agencies even needed, and if so, what should they do and why? What lessons can be learnt from how security was organised during the struggles for liberation in the region? Southern Africa is seeing thousands of people in the region taking to the streets in protests. In response, governments are scrambling to acquire surveillance technologies to monitor these new protest movements. Southern Africa faces no major terrorism threats at the moment, which should make it easier to develop clearer anti-surveillance campaigns than in Europe or the US. Yet, because of tactical and strategic ambivalence about security powers, movements often engage in limited calls for intelligence and policing reforms, and fail to provide an alternative vision for policing and intelligence. Surveillance and Intelligence in Southern Africa examines what that vision could look like.

London: Zed Books, 2020. 

By United States. Office Of The Director Of National Intelligence; Intelligence Community (U.S.)

From the document: "Following the attacks of September 11, 2001, and in the wake of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act passed by Congress in 2004, Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte signed out the Intelligence Community's (IC) first National Intelligence Strategy. The strategy explained that the Intelligence Community's clear charge was to: [1] Integrate the domestic and foreign dimensions of U.S. intelligence so that there are no gaps in our understanding of threats to our national security; [2] Bring more depth and accuracy to intelligence analysis; and [3] Ensure that U.S. intelligence resources generate future capabilities as well as present results. Now, almost twenty years after our first strategy was issued, the Intelligence Community's charge remains just as clear, even as the strategic environment has changed dramatically. The United States faces an increasingly complex and interconnected threat environment characterized by strategic competition between the United States, the People's Republic of China (PRC), and the Russian Federation, felt perhaps most immediately in Russia's ongoing aggression in Ukraine. In addition to states, sub-national and non-state actors--from multinational corporations to transnational social movements--are increasingly able to create influence, compete for information, and secure or deny political and security outcomes, which provides opportunities for new partnerships as well as new challenges to U.S. interests. In addition, shared global challenges, including climate change, human and health security, as well as emerging and disruptive technological advances, are converging in ways that produce significant consequences that are often difficult to predict. [...] The six goals outlined in this National Intelligence Strategy have emerged as our understanding of the kinds of information, technology, and relationships needed to be effective in the future has expanded."

Washington. United States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Intelligence Community (U.S.). 2023.

By Peter J. Meyer and Clare Ribando Seelke

Central America faces significant security challenges. Criminal threats, fragile political and judicial systems, and social hardships such as poverty and unemployment contribute to widespread insecurity in the region. Consequently, improving security conditions in these countries is a difficult, multifaceted endeavor. Because U.S. drug demand contributes to regional security challenges and the consequences of citizen insecurity in Central America are potentially far-reaching, the United States is collaborating with countries in the region to implement and refine security efforts.

Washington, DC: U.S. Congressional Research Service, 2012. 40p.