By Neil Donnelly

To examine changes in the clear up rate for New South Wales (NSW) crimes by considering offence-specific trends in the NSW Police Force 90-day legal action rate over the 15 years from 2009 to 2023. METHOD Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for incidents reported between 2009 and 2023. This includes the total number of incidents reported, the number of persons of interest legally proceeded against, and the percentage of incidents where police commenced legal action against at least one person within 90 days of reporting. Trends were examined separately across 11 major offence categories using the percentage point change and the total percentage change. The Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance. RESULTS Over the 15 years from 2009 to 2023, there were significant increases in the 90-day legal action rate for nine of the 11 offences examined. The largest percentage point changes were observed for robbery (up 19.9 percentage points (p.p.)), malicious damage to property (up 14.2 p.p.), break and enter non-dwelling (up 12.7 p.p.), break and enter dwelling (up 8.5 p.p.), motor vehicle theft (up 7.9 p.p.) and domestic violence (DV) related assault (up 6.5 p.p.). Smaller, though significant, increases were also found for steal from motor vehicle (up 3.0 p.p.), non-DV related assault (up 2.5 p.p.) and sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (up 2.0 p.p.). By contrast there was a significant decline in the 90-day legal action rate for reported incidents of sexual assault over the 15-year period examined (down -3.4 p.p.). For most property offences, the upward trend in legal action rates has not caused a significant growth in criminal court workload. This is because the fall in crime rates over the last 15 years has been even greater than the rise in legal actions. This is not true for DV assault and sexual touching, sexual acts and other sexual offences. The combination of a rise in incident counts and the improvements in legal action rates has resulted in more people being brought before the criminal courts for these offences. The overall number of sexual assault incidents recorded by police over the 15-year period also increased. This increase offset the decline in the legal action rate in recent years, leading to a higher number of offenders being proceeded against to court for this offence.

Parramatta, NSW: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), 2025. 11p.

By Anthony A. Braga

Clearance rates for fatal and nonfatal shootings, especially cases involving gang- and drug-related violence, are disturbingly low in many American cities. Low clearance rates undermine police efforts to hold offenders accountable, to disrupt cycles of gun violence, and to provide justice to victims. The prevailing view has been that follow-up investigations are of limited value because crimes are primarily cleared by patrol officers making on-scene arrests and through eyewitnesses and forensic evidence at the crime scene. Other research, however, suggests that the work of criminal investigators can increase the likelihood that crimes might be cleared through arrest. After years of homicide clearance rates that were lower than the national average, the Boston Police Department engaged a research and development enterprise to improve their posthomicide criminal-investigation processes and practices. A rigorous evaluation found that the intervention significantly increased key investigative activities and improved clearance rates relative to existing homicide clearance trends in other Massachusetts and U.S. jurisdictions. This research enterprise was extended to compare city investigative resources invested in clearing gun-homicide cases relative to nonfatal gun assaults. The study found that gun homicides and nonfatal shooting cases shared very similar characteristics. However, higher clearance rates for gun homicides relative to nonfatal shootings were primarily a result of sustained investigative effort in homicide cases made following the first two days. Police departments should invest additional resources in the investigation of nonfatal gun assaults. When additional investigative effort is expended, law enforcement improves its success in gaining the cooperation of key witnesses and increases the amount of forensic evidence collected and analyzed.

New York: The Manhattan Institute, 2021. 15p.