By Neil Donnelly

To examine changes in the clear up rate for New South Wales (NSW) crimes by considering offence-specific trends in the NSW Police Force 90-day legal action rate over the 15 years from 2009 to 2023. METHOD Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for incidents reported between 2009 and 2023. This includes the total number of incidents reported, the number of persons of interest legally proceeded against, and the percentage of incidents where police commenced legal action against at least one person within 90 days of reporting. Trends were examined separately across 11 major offence categories using the percentage point change and the total percentage change. The Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance. RESULTS Over the 15 years from 2009 to 2023, there were significant increases in the 90-day legal action rate for nine of the 11 offences examined. The largest percentage point changes were observed for robbery (up 19.9 percentage points (p.p.)), malicious damage to property (up 14.2 p.p.), break and enter non-dwelling (up 12.7 p.p.), break and enter dwelling (up 8.5 p.p.), motor vehicle theft (up 7.9 p.p.) and domestic violence (DV) related assault (up 6.5 p.p.). Smaller, though significant, increases were also found for steal from motor vehicle (up 3.0 p.p.), non-DV related assault (up 2.5 p.p.) and sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (up 2.0 p.p.). By contrast there was a significant decline in the 90-day legal action rate for reported incidents of sexual assault over the 15-year period examined (down -3.4 p.p.). For most property offences, the upward trend in legal action rates has not caused a significant growth in criminal court workload. This is because the fall in crime rates over the last 15 years has been even greater than the rise in legal actions. This is not true for DV assault and sexual touching, sexual acts and other sexual offences. The combination of a rise in incident counts and the improvements in legal action rates has resulted in more people being brought before the criminal courts for these offences. The overall number of sexual assault incidents recorded by police over the 15-year period also increased. This increase offset the decline in the legal action rate in recent years, leading to a higher number of offenders being proceeded against to court for this offence.

Parramatta, NSW: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR), 2025. 11p.

By Gregory D. Breetzke and Luna Asefaw Girmay

Research examining the crime drop has become increasingly popular with a plethora of studies showing how crime has declined since the 1990s. The vast majority of this research has, however, emanated from the United States and other ‘Western’ countries. In this study, we undertook a national-level analysis of crime trends in South Africa from 2010 to 2019 using official police data. Results showed that crime did drop marginally in the country over the study period although there is substantial variability in crime decline by crime type and geography. Moreover, various socio-demographic characteristics, such as income inequality, were found to possibly influence the temporal trends of crime in the country observed. These findings underscore the importance of context-specific analyses in understanding decadal crime trends and highlight the need for targeted, geographically nuanced approaches to crime prevention in South Africa

Security Journal (2025) 38:14

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

Mike Hough and Mike Maxfield

Join us as we delve into the evolution of crime surveying in the 21st century with a special focus on the landmark British Crime Survey. In this comprehensive exploration, we reflect on the past quarter-century of crime trends, methodologies, and societal shifts that have shaped our understanding of criminal behavior.

From the inaugural survey in 1999 to the latest data-driven analyses, this commemorative edition offers valuable insights into the complex landscape of crime detection and prevention. Uncover how technology, demographic changes, and policy initiatives have influenced the prevalence and perception of crime across the United Kingdom.

Celebrate this milestone anniversary by delving into the intricate tapestry of crime surveying, where data meets narrative to illuminate the challenges and triumphs of combating crime in the modern era.

Crime Prevention Studies Volume 22. Criminal Justice Press Monsey, NY, U.S.A.. Willan Publishing Cullomptom, Devon, U.K.. 2007. 321p.

MAY CONTAIN MARKUP

Edward R. Maguire

Although most large police organizations perform the same tasks, there is tremendous variation in how individual organizations are structured. To account for this variation, author Edward R. Maguire develops a new theory that attributes the formal structures of large municipal police agencies to the contexts in which they are embedded. This theory finds that the relevant features of an organization's context are its size, age, technology, and environment. Using a database representing nearly four hundred of the nation's largest municipal police agencies, Maguire develops empirical measures of police organizations and their contexts and then uses these measures in a series of structural equation models designed to test the theory. Ultimately, police organizations are shown to be like other types of organizations in many ways but are also shown to be unique in a number of respects.

NY. SUNY Press. 2003. 294p.

By Marcus Felson, Shanhe Jiang and Yanqing Xu

The spread of the coronavirus has led to containment policies in many places, with concomitant shifts in routine activities. Major declines in crime have been reported as a result. However, those declines depend on crime type and may difer by parts of a city and land uses. This paper examines burglary in Detroit, Michigan during the month of March, 2020, a period of considerable change in routine activities. We examine 879 block groups, separating those dominated by residential land use from those with more mixed land use. We divide the month into three periods: pre-containment, transition period, and post-containment. Burglaries increase in block groups with mixed land use, but not blocks dominated by residential land use. The impact of containment policies on burglary clarifies after taking land use into account.

Crime Science 2020 9:10

By Jason L. Payne , Anthony Morgan and Alex R. Piquero

Confronted by rapidly growing infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths, governments around the world have introduced stringent containment measures to help reduce the spread of COVID-19. This public health response has had an unprecedented impact on people’s daily lives which, unsurprisingly, has also had widely observed implications in terms of crime and public safety. Drawing upon theories from environmental criminology, this study examines officially recorded property crime rates between March and June 2020 as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of property damage, shop theft, residential burglary, fraud, and motor vehicle theft rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March through to June. We conclude that, with the exception of fraud, all property offence categories declined significantly. For some offence types (shop stealing, other theft offences, and residential burglary), the decrease commenced as early as March. For other offence types, the decline was lagged and did not occur until April or May. Non-residential burglary was the only offence type to significantly increase, which it did in March, only to then decline significantly thereafter. These trends, while broadly consistent across the state’s 77 local government areas still varied in meaningful ways and we discuss possible explanations and implications.

Crime Science. (2021) 10:7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40163-020-00136-3