By Hannah S. Laqueur & Colette Smirniotis

Using firearm transaction and crime gun recovery records from California (2010–2021), we employ machine learning to identify dealers who sold the largest number and highest fraction of guns recovered in crimes within 1 year of sale. This short “time-to-crime” (TTC) is a well-established indicator of potential illegal activity by dealers or traffickers. We developed two primary prediction models: the first classifies dealer-years in the top 5% of 1-year crime gun sales volume (prediction model 1), the second identifies dealer-years in the top 5% based on the fraction of sales recovered within a year (prediction model 2). Both models demonstrated strong discriminative performance, with areas under the receiver operating curve (AUCs) of 0.95 and 0.86, respectively, and areas under the precision-recall curve (AUC–PRs) of 0.72 and 0.43. By comparison, a random classifier would be expected to achieve an AUC of 0.50 and an AUC-PR of 0.05. Prediction model 1 was particularly effective at identifying the highest risk dealers: Those with predictions exceeding 0.90 consistently ranked in the top 5% across multiple years, averaging 33 1-year crime gun sales annually. The machine learning models generally outperformed simpler regression and rule-based approaches, underscoring the value of data-adaptive methods for prediction. Key predictors included prior-year crime gun sales, the average age of purchasers, the proportion of “cheap” handgun sales, and the local gun robbery and assault rate.

Firearms dealers may engage in behaviors that facilitate the diversion of guns to criminal markets. Combining detailed transaction and recovery records with machine learning could help efficiently identify high-risk retailers for targeted enforcement to disrupt the flow of firearms to gun offenders. Future research is needed to determine whether a high number of short TTC sales as compared to a high fraction is a more reliable predictor of law evasion.

Criminology & Public Policy Volume 24, Issue 3 Aug 2025 Pages307-497

By Jingyuan Yu, · Aliya Andrich, · Max Schindle

This exploratory study investigates the potential gender differences in research priorities, driven by factors such as established sexual stigma and traditional gender norms surrounding pornography. Using temporal and thematic analyses, we identify and examine research topics of 6,145 pornography studies published between 2001 and 2024. Our findings suggest that the lead author's gender may influence topic selection, with women exploring topics that have historically been underrepresented or overlooked. Furthermore, female-led publications have engaged with internet and web-related research earlier and more prominently. Additionally, our analyses outline the evolution of male- and female-led publication patterns in the feld, highlighting a trend toward more balanced representation. This study aims to serve as a foundational basis for future research, encouraging more thorough investigations into gender disparities and their underlying causes within this domain. We also highlight the importance of longitudinal research to uncover potential gender disparities over time.  

Archives of Sexual Behavior (2025) 54:1995–2003 

By Siobhán Healy‑Cullen,   Kris Taylor,   Tracy Morison

Purpose of Review - In this article, we dig more deeply into the assumptions underpinning common-sense understandings about youth “exposure” to pornography and the ostensible “effects” of this exposure, specifically “pornography addiction”. We trace the emergence of the notion of “pornography addiction”, highlighting how cultural conditions have allowed for its realisation as a socially recognisable and intelligible narrative. Recent Findings:  Media effects research on the issue of youth “exposure” to pornography is not conclusive, nor is pornography addiction officially recognised as a diagnosable disorder. Moreover, an emerging body of multidisciplinary qualitative research, which, importantly, includes the perspectives and experiences of young people themselves, raises questions about some of the assumptions and conclusions of effects-focused research. Summary:  Despite inconclusive and contrasting findings, the social narrative of pornography addiction persists both within and beyond academe. We make sense of this persistence in relation to the broader problematization of youth sexuality, which includes unease and moral objection to young people viewing pornography. It is important to recognise the broader socio-cultural systems supporting the cultural narrative of pornography addiction, and the social functions that this narrative serves, that is, the need for adult intervention into the sexual lives of youth.  

  Current Addiction Reports (2024) 11:265–274

By Isangelo Senna, Fabio Iglesias, Lucas Heiki Matsunaga

Abstract Despite decades of research on Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED), the specifc impact of its dimensions on fear of crime (FoC) remains under-examined. This study investigates these efects by analyzing responses from 460 participants who evaluated photographs and completed the Situational Fear of Crime Scale for Public Spaces (SFS-Scale). The fndings reveal that defciencies in natural surveillance, followed by a lack of territoriality, are linked to heightened FoC. Moreover, natural surveillance emerged as a more signifcant predictor of FoC compared to territoriality. Additionally, police ofcers and military personnel reported lower levels of FoC than the general public. The study highlights the importance of understanding how CPTED dimensions shape public perceptions of safety. It also ofers practical insights for the development of targeted public security policies. These fndings suggest that CPTED principles can play a crucial role in reducing fear of crime and enhancing public safety in urban settings.

Crime Prevention and Community Safety (2025) 27:1–17 

By Eric Halford

Crime linkage is a systematic way of assessing behavioural or physical characteristics of crimes and considering the likelihood they are linked to the same ofender. This study builds on research in this area by replicating existing studies with a new type of burglar known as optimal foragers, who are ofenders whose target selection is conducted in a similar fashion to foraging animals. Using crimes identifed by police analysts as being committed by foragers this study examines their crime scene behaviour to assess the level of predictive accuracy for linking crimes based on their ofending characteristics. Results support previous studies on randomly selected burglary ofence data by identifying inter-crime distance as the highest linking indicator, followed by target selection, entry behaviour, property stolen and ofender crime scene behaviour. Results discuss distinctions between this study and previous research fndings, outlining the potential that foraging domestic burglary ofenders display distinct behaviours to other forms of ofender (random/marauder/commuter). 
Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology (2023) 38:127–140 

By Iris van Sintemaartensdijk & Jean-Louis van Gelder & Jan-Willem van Prooijen & Claire Nee & Marco Otte & Paul van Lange 

Objectives This study investigates the deterrent effects of incremental levels of guardianship on residential burglary and assesses how burglars differ from non-burglars in terms of their perceptions of opportunities for burglary. Methods In a virtual reality experiment, 181 incarcerated burglars and 172 nonburglars (university students) were tasked to appraise a virtual neighbourhood in search of a burglary target. During the appraisal process, participants were exposed to different levels of guardianship, ranging from the mere presence of a guardian to an intervening guardian. Results The presence of a guardian deterred both burglars and non-burglars alike, with only negligible incremental effects for levels of guardianship. For burglars, guardianship increased the perceived likelihood of being caught and the perceived level of social cohesion, whereas it decreased neighbourhood attractiveness. The burglars differed from the non-burglars in terms of how they appraised the virtual neighbourhood, clearly reflecting differences in expertise between both groups. Conclusions With respect to residential burglary, the results suggest that guardians—in line with the original notion of guardianship developed by Cohen and Felson (American Sociological Review, 44(4), 588–608, 1979)—serve as a deterrent simply by being present.

Journal of Experimental Criminology (2021) 17:657–676

By Claire Nee, Jean-Louis van Gelder, Marco Otte, Zarah Vernham, and Amy Meenaghan

In this article, we describe a quasi-experiment in which experienced incarcerated burglars (n = 56), other offenders (n = 50), and nonoffenders (n = 55) undertook a mock burglary within a virtual neighborhood. We draw from the cognitive psychology literature on expertise and apply it to offending behavior, demonstrating synergy with rational choice perspectives, yet extending them in several respects. Our principal goal was to carry out the first robust test of expertise in offenders by having these groups undertake a burglary in a fully fledged reenactment of a crime in a virtual environment. Our findings indicate that the virtual environment successfully reinstated the context of the crime showing clear differences in the decision making of burglars compared with other groups in ways commensurate with expertise in other behavioral domains. Specifically, burglars scoped the neighborhood more thoroughly, spent more time in the high-value areas of the crime scene while traveling less distance there, and targeted different goods from the comparison groups. The level of detail in the data generated sheds new light on the cognitive processes and actions of burglars and how they “learn on the job.” Implications for criminal decision-making perspectives and psychological theories of expertise are discussed.

Criminology Volume 57, Issue 3Aug 2019 Pages373-574

By Robyn Lunt & Matthew Talbot

Research has highlighted gaps in the publics ‘awareness of burglar behaviour and their perceptions of vulnerability, perhaps indicating a need for further prevention training. No such research exists examining students’ awareness, but is vital given students’ relatively high levels of burglary victimisation. To provide this research, students were asked to complete a mock burglary in a simulated environment, with burglary awareness inferred based on their performance relative to previous experienced burglars. Further context was added by qualitatively analysing participants’ verbalisations during the task. Performance was also compared between frst and third year undergraduates to further examine diferences in awareness across student populations. No signifcant diferences were found between the behaviour of frst and third years. Nevertheless, both groups showed an overall limited understanding of burglary behaviour through their performance and verbalisations. Results demonstrate that raising awareness of victimisation and burglary behaviour is integral to improve the safety of University students.  

Crime Prevention and Community Safety (2025) 27:18–34

By Rose Tingate , Rachael Fullam , and Margaret Nixon

Research has largely neglected the intersection of gender and disabil-ity in reintegration, resulting in a poor understanding of the reintegra-tion needs of women with cognitive disabilities. This paper useda systematic review of research published between 1995 and 2024 todevelop a profile of formerly incarcerated women with cognitive dis-abilities and their needs on reentry. Twelve studies met inclusioncriteria, and a content analysis revealed themes of disadvantage, dis-connection from family and support networks, mental illness, andunmet criminogenic needs. The limited research on the reintegrationneeds of formerly incarcerated women with cognitive disabilities high-lights significant challenges, including service gaps and specificvulnerabilities.

Victims & Offenders, 1–24.

By Linda Montanari, Luis Royuela, Sara Mazzilli, Liesbeth Vandam, Elena Alvarez, Noelia Llorens, Ludmila Carapinha, Katerina Grohmannova, Laura Isajeva, Lina Ignataviciute

Substance use is a global phenomenon that is particularly affecting the prison population. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of drug use among people in prison before and during incarceration in seven European countries and to compare it with the prevalence in the general population. Individual data collection was carried out between 2014 and 2018 with a model European Questionnaire on Drug Use among people in prison. A total of 12,918 people living in prison filled in the survey. People in prison report higher level of drug use when compared with the general population and the use of drug inside prison exist, although at lower levels when compared with predetention. Prisons can represent a point of access to engage individuals who use drugs in interventions that address drug use and risk factors related to both drug use and imprisonment.

Journal of Community Psychology Volume 52, Issue 8: Special Issue: Drug Use and Associated Harms Among People in Contact with the Criminal Justice SystemsNov 2024. Pages, 971-1220

By Marieke Liem and Kim Moeller

 In 1985, Goldstein developed a framework to capture the relationships between drugs and violence in the United States, laying a foundation for future research on drug-related violence. Since then, the rise of synthetic drugs, including in Europe, and the introduction of online drug transactions have drastically changed illicit drug markets and associated violence contexts. Technological innovations, increased globalization, and diversification of drug types call for an expansion of Goldstein’s framework, given the accompanying changes in violence. In this paper, we review the conceptual and empirical research on drugs and violence including contributions from Europe and propose refinements to the tripartite framework. This expanded framework specifies the context of the violence in terms of different stages of the drug route, and access- and consumption related events at the individual level. This more fine-grained classification will be able to better capture the characteristics of drug-related violence in Europe and other world regions in a globalized era.  

International Criminology https://doi.org/10.1007/s43576-025-00160-w 2025.  

By The U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration

Substance use and mental health conditions have significant impacts on individuals, families, communities, and societies. The National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), conducted annually by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), provides nationally representative data on the use of tobacco, alcohol, and other substances including illicit drugs; substance use disorders; receipt of substance use treatment; mental health conditions; and receipt of mental health treatment among the civilian, noninstitutionalized population aged 12 or older in the United States. NSDUH estimates allow researchers, clinicians, policymakers, and the general public to better understand and improve the nation’s behavioral health. Historically, NSDUH collected data via in-person interviews; however, the 2021 to 2024 NSDUHs used multimode data collection, in which respondents completed the survey in person or via the web. Methodological investigations led to the conclusion that estimates based on multimode data collection in 2021 and subsequent years are not comparable with estimates from 2020 or prior years.4 This report examines changes in substance use and mental health estimates from 2021 to 2024 for those estimates that can be compared for all 4 years. Results from the 2024 National Survey on Drug Use and Health: Detailed Tables also show comprehensive estimates related to substance use and mental health for 2023 and 2024 and selected estimates for 2021 to 2024.5 The 2024 Companion Infographic: Results from the 2021-2024 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health shows selected estimates from 2021 to 2024.6 SAMHSA will also produce a series of reports using pooled data from the 2022 to 2024 NSDUHs to examine in greater depth the associations between characteristics of selected population subgroups and substance use and mental health indicators.  

Rockville, MD: Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, 2025. 132p.

By Rahim Kurwa

Indefensible Spaces examines the policing of housing through the story of Black community building in the Antelope Valley, Los Angeles County’s northernmost outpost. Tracing its evolution from a segregated postwar suburb to a destination for those priced, policed, and evicted out of Los Angeles, Rahim Kurwa tells the story of how the Antelope Valley resisted Black migration through the policing of subsidized housing—and how Black tenants and organizers fought back. This book sheds light on how the nation’s policing and housing crises intersect, offering powerful lessons for achieving housing justice across the country. “With analytical acumen and literary panache worthy of the late Mike Davis, Rahim Kurwa reveals how housing vouchers promising to liberate impoverished residents from prison‑like projects actually fueled even greater anti‑Black police repression—but like fugitives from the antebellum South, Antelope Valley tenants organized, resisted, and demanded their right to the suburb

Oakland, CA: University of California Press, 2025. 243p.

By  Petrina Hargrave, PhD., Oliver Donaldson, Moana Hamana, Joanna Miller, and Anja Uhlmann 

Victim blaming, where crime victims are held responsible for their victimisation, deflects blame from perpetrators. This may discourage victims from seeking help or reporting crime, a significant issue in New Zealand where only 28% of crime is reported. It may also impede their recovery. Preventing victim blaming requires understanding victims’ experiences, especially among Māori, Rainbow, and disabled communities, who face higher crime rates. This research aims to raise awareness of victim blaming and its impact on help-seeking, crime reporting and recovery. Victim Support interviewed 31 New Zealand crime victims who had experienced victim blaming, uncovering five key themes.

New Zealand:  Manaaki Tāngata Victim Support , 2024. 40p.

BY Richard Grelling.. Translated By Alexander Gray. Introduction by Colin Heston.

Richard Grelling’s The Crime (Das Verbrechen), translated into English by Alexander Gray and published in London and New York between 1917 and 1919, is conceived as both a moral successor and completion to his earlier pacifist landmark, J’Accuse!, written between August 1915 and November 1916. In creating this extended work, Grelling sought to underscore the causes of World War I and dissect the self-justifying rhetoric that sustained the conflict long after its outbreak. Volumes I and II lay foundational groundwork, tracing the immediate antecedents of the war: imperialist tendencies within Germany and, on the part of the opposing Entente powers, ostensibly defensive motives followed by trait protectionism.

Never before in the annals of humankind has a crime of such sweeping magnitude been committed—and seldom has its perpetration been met with denial so unashamed. Within the very citadels of reason and culture, a proud civilization unleashed catastrophe under the guise of necessity—only to scramble afterward in self-exculpation. It is in this spirit of moral defiance—standing firm against voices of dissent, even from one’s own kin—that The Crime is offered to you. In the trilogy’s third volume, Grelling moves beyond the origins of war into the heart of wartime rationalization, exposing the “war-aims” that enabled aggression to persist under the cloak of purpose. May this work cast a clear light upon the structures of self-deception that allowed the world’s descent, and may it stir an unyielding clarity in us to recognize—and reject—such patterns again.

Read-Me.Org Inc. New York-Philadelphia-Australia. 2025. 261p.

By Rusi - Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies

Economic crime poses a significant threat to the UK, undermining its financial stability and security. To address this threat, in March 2023, the UK government launched the Economic Crime Plan 2,1 outlining a series of coordinated actions that should be undertaken across multiple government departments. Among these measures, the National Economic Crime Centre (NECC) was tasked with developing a people strategy to strengthen expertise and cross-sector collaboration, considering partnerships with industry and other stakeholders such as academia.2 Although there is a growing body of research on economic crime in the UK, there is scope for academia to play a more important role as a valuable resource in combatting economic crime. In October 2024, the NECC and the Home Office convened the first Economic Crime Academic Forum, hosted by RUSI’s Centre for Finance and Security. The forum aimed to bridge the gap between academic research and policymaking by fostering dialogue and identifying actionable solutions to issues including money laundering, fraud, kleptocracy and corruption. Academic participants came from a range of related disciplines and included both more established and early career academics, bringing a range of perspectives. Government attendees came from multiple government departments and law enforcement. The discussions focused on three aspects of research on economic crime: economic crime threats; the response to economic crime in terms of policy, enforcement and evaluation; and research methods and associated challenges. Due to the breadth and fluidity of the discussion, this report does not provide a linear summary of the matters raised. Instead, it details ways in which academics conduct research on economic crime, identifies gaps and challenges in research and academic engagement with government initiatives, and explores potential solutions. The forum was conducted on a non-attributable basis.

London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), 2025. 11p

By Kristina Amerhauser and Audrey Thill with support from Martin Thorley, Louise Taylor and Matt Herbert

Cyber scam operations have surged across Southeast Asia since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, evolving into a transnational organized crime crisis of staggering proportions. In this report, we expose the inner workings of scam compounds and the sophisticated criminal ecosystem sustaining them.

Repurposed hotels, casinos, and private compounds across Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and the Philippines have become centres of global fraud. These compounds are operated by organized criminal networks that exploit hundreds of thousands of people, many of whom are trafficked and forced to perpetrate online scams. Victims include not only those defrauded online but also the scam workers themselves, subjected to threats, violence, sexual exploitation and extreme working conditions.

The report details how cyber scams —including ‘pig-butchering’ romance-investment scams, crypto fraud, impersonation and sextortion— now generate tens of billions of dollars annually.

These illicit operations thrive due to weak rule of law, widespread corruption, and complicity from powerful figures who operate as ‘role shifters’ —individuals who blur the lines between government, business and crime. Scam compounds often enjoy protection from local elites and security forces, and rely on global money laundering networks, including cryptocurrencies and high-risk financial services providers.

This in-depth analysis, based on extensive fieldwork and case studies, highlights the devastating economic, human rights and security implications of cyber scam operations.

The report calls for urgent, coordinated responses, including better victim identification systems, crackdowns on enablers, and reforms to protect vulnerable communities.

Geneva, SWIT: 5 Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2025. 68p.

By David Jinkins, Elira Kuka, Claudio Labanca

Research on the social safety net examines its effects on recipients and their families. We show that these effects extend beyond recipients’ families. Using a regression discontinuity design and administrative data, we study a Danish policy that cut welfare benefits for refugees, increasing crime among affected individuals. Linking refugees to neighbors, we find increased crime among non-Danish neighbors, with spillovers persisting even after direct effects stabilize. Accounting for these spillovers raises the marginal value of public funds by 20%. We explore several mechanisms and find evidence consistent with peer effects among young individuals from the same country of origin.

IZA DP No. 17958

Bonn: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics , 2025. 85p.

By Daniel M. Gerstein

his report is one in a series of analyses on the effects of emerging technologies on U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) missions and capabilities. As part of this work, the research team was charged with developing a technology and risk assessment methodology for evaluating emerging technologies and understanding their implications in a homeland security context. The methodology and analyses provide a basis for DHS to better understand the emerging technologies and the risks presented.

This report describes the implications that the metaverse could have on digital crimes that involve the targeting and exploitation of children. These digital crimes are already occurring and have affected and endangered many victims and families. In an immersive online environment, such as the metaverse, opportunities for criminal activity and exploitation aimed at children could expand further.

Key Findings

Metaverse technologies — which encompass artificial intelligence systems, immersive technologies, and enabling digital technologies — will likely continue to become more available, have greater capabilities, and cost less to obtain and use. As has been the case with other digital technologies, metaverse technologies likely will have few policy, legal, ethical, or regulatory impediments constraining their development or use.

The metaverse concept is at an inflection point. How it will expand, how large it will become, and whether will it become an expansive virtual world that directly competes with the physical world remain unanswered questions. The timelines for expansion of the metaverse also remain speculative and will largely depend on use case, demand, and market forces.

Both non-metaverse and metaverse platforms have been and will continue to be used effectively to target children. Furthermore, an overlap exists between non-metaverse and metaverse platform use in luring and victimizing children, which makes it impossible to delineate the share of these abhorrent behaviors ascribable to each.

The lack of legal frameworks for crimes involving the targeting and exploitation of children in online applications will likely continue to be an issue. Clear definitions for what constitute attacks in the metaverse are not available as they are in the physical world, which hinders investigations and prosecutions. Despite the known vulnerabilities and consequences, these platforms continue to be aggressively marketed to children.

As the metaverse grows, the potential of these platforms for targeting, luring, exploiting, and victimizing children through targeted criminal activity or child exploitation will likely also grow.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2025. 24p.

By Lisa Tompson, Apriel Jolliffe Simpson, Richard Wortley, Bridget O’Keeffe & Devon Polaschek

Policy efforts based on evidence about risk for re-victimisation both protect some of the most vulnerable people in society and have a good chance of reducing crime levels overall (Farrell and Pease, 1993; Grove et al., 2012; Pease et al., 2018). While research has established that the phenomenon of re-victimisation is ubiquitous, less is known about what makes some people more vulnerable to re-victimisation than others (Hamilton and Browne, 1998; Nazaretian and Fitch, 2021). Enhanced understanding of who these people are is thus crucial for developing contemporary victim-centred crime prevention policy. Victimology theories suggest that people at high risk of victimisation are typified by multiple overlapping and intersecting personal characteristics (e.g., gender, age, race/ethnicity, class, disability status, sexual identity), rather than forming homogeneous higher-order groups (e.g., delineated by a single personal characteristic; Shoham et al, 2010; Walklate, 2012). Accordingly, in this study we examined socio-demographic characteristics (e.g., gender, age, ethnicity, disability status, sexual identity) of people who were re-victimised, with an emphasis on intersectionality1. That is, we focused on identifying where the co-occurrence of socio-demographic characteristics intensified risk of re-victimisation. We use re-victimisation as an umbrella term to cover: • Poly-victimisation (i.e., >1 victimisation for different types of crime), and • Repeat-victimisation (i.e., >1 victimisation for different types of crime) for 11 different crime types. We therefore analysed 12 different types of re-victimisation over five waves of the New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS) in the privacy- and security-protected environment of Statistics New Zealand’s Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI) with Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations. This method enabled us to position groups (i.e., combinations of characteristics) as the unit of analysis and identify where intersecting characteristics were associated with high rates of re-victimisation and isolate when particular individual characteristics were especially noteworthy. This research makes four important contributions to the evidence base on victimisation. First, while re-victimisation experiences have been studied for a range of crime types internationally (see Farrell et al., 2005), this is the first research to do so for Aotearoa New Zealand. Second, it adds to the scant evidence base on poly-victimisation. Third, it corroborates the empirical findings from other countries that risk of re-victimisation increases cumulatively (Johnson et al., 1997), hence the need for policies and practices that get upstream of the problem and prevent re-victimisation at the earliest opportunity. Fourth, this research advances knowledge on how socio-demographic characteristics intersect to elevate risk of re-victimisation. The findings are relevant for policymakers developing victimisation prevention programmes across various organisations in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Te Puna Haumaru New Zealand Institute for Security and Crime Science, The University of Waikato , 2025. 105p.