By Kourtney A. D. Byrd,  David K. Lohrmann, and Brittanni Wright

Further study is needed regarding the intersection of community violence exposure, coping strategies, and health behaviors among young adult African American men and Hispanic/Latino men. This study did so in Lake County, Indiana, which contains multiple areas with disproportionate prevalence of violence relative to population size. Approximately 22 miles from Chicago, Lake County includes noteworthy mid-sized cities such as Gary, Hammond, and East Chicago. This study explored the perceptions of African American men and Hispanic/Latino men ages 18 to 25 regarding coping strategies and both healthy and health risk behaviors after directly witnessing or indirectly experiencing a violent act or event. We used aspects of social cognitive theory to design this community-based participatory research study. Thirteen males who self-identified as African American, Hispanic/Latino, or both, completed 34- to 80-minute, audio-recorded phone interviews. Audio recordings were transcribed, and NVivo 12 Windows was used by the research team (primary researchers and two coders) to complete transcript analysis. Findings from this study provided insight around African American men and Hispanic/Latino men regarding (a) witnessing violence directly or indirectly experiencing violence; (b) changes in everyday life experiences; (c) coping strategies that involved socio-emotional health, spiritual health, social health, and risky health behaviors; (d) rationales for not asking for help; (e) observations of significant others’ coping; (f) what to do differently in the future; (g) beliefs about mentors; and (h) beliefs about mental health providers. Delving into participants’ experiences revealed that African American men and Hispanic/Latino men in Lake County, Indiana chose to adopt a range of health risk and health positive strategies after directly witnessing or indirectly experiencing violence. Becoming knowledgeable about African American men’s and Hispanic/Latino men’s diverse coping strategies and health behaviors may help inform the community about how best to co-create spaces that aim to alleviate the traumatic experience of having directly or indirectly experienced community violence.

Indianapolis, IN: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2024. 31p.

By Solveig K. B. Vatnar, Christine Friestad, and Stål Bjørkly

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is an extreme outcome of intimate partner violence (IPV). It is a societal challenge that needs to be investigated over time to see whether changes occur concerning the incidence of IPH, IPH characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and contact with service providers. This study includes the total Norwegian cohort of IPHs between 1990 and 2019 with a final conviction (N = 224). Poisson regression was applied to model the incidence rate of homicide and IPH between 1990 and 2020 as well as the incidence rates of immigrant perpetrators and victims. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between characteristics and period 1990–2012 compared to after 2012 as dependent variable. The results show that though homicide incidence rates in Norway declined steadily and significantly after 1990, IPH rates did not begin to decline until 2015. The following IPH characteristics showed reduced incidence after 2012: IPH-suicide, perpetrators with a criminal record, and IPHs perpetrated subsequent to preventive interventions towards the perpetrator. Sentence length in IPH cases had increased. Changes were not observed for any of the other IPH characteristics investigated. IPH is often the culmination of long-term violence and can be prevented, even if risk assessment is challenging due to the low base rates.

Oslo, Norway: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 27p

By Mariana Gonçalves, Eduardo Gomes, and Marlene Matos 

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is a tragic event. Studies involving the comparison between IPH and intimate partner homicide-suicide (IPH-S) are scarce, with few studies in Portugal about this issue. The current study aims to compare IPH and IPH-S perpetrators, the victim–perpetrator relationships dynamics, and homicide circumstances. The data was collected through the analysis of 78 judicial processes of IPH that occurred in Portugal, between 2010 and 2015. Of the cases, 51 were IPH, 20 were IPH-S cases, and seven were attempted suicide cases, being perpetrated in 84.6% (n= 66) for male perpetrators. Suicide after intimate homicide were all committed by men. All judicial processes analyzed refer to heterosexual relationships. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to compare the groups concerning perpetrator and victim sociodemographic characteristics, victim-perpetrator dyadic dynamics, and crime circumstances. The results show mostly common trends between the two groups with some differentiating factors when compared individually (e.g., perpetrator professional status, criminal records). Regression logistic analysis showed no differences between IPH and IPH-S.

Braga, Portugal: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 22p.

By Felix Soldner, Bennett Kleinberg, Shane D. Johnson

The popularity of online shopping is steadily increasing. At the same time, fake product reviews are published widely and have the potential to affect consumer purchasing behavior. In response, previous work has developed automated methods utilizing natural language processing approaches to detect fake product reviews. However, studies vary considerably in how well they succeed in detecting deceptive reviews, and the reasons for such differences are unclear. A contributing factor may be the multitude of strategies used to collect data, introducing potential confounds which affect detection performance. Two possible confounds are data-origin (i.e., the dataset is composed of more than one source) and product ownership (i.e., reviews written by individuals who own or do not own the reviewed product). In the present study, we investigate the effect of both confounds for fake review detection. Using an experimental design, we manipulate data-origin, product ownership, review polarity, and veracity. Supervised learning analysis suggests that review veracity (60.26–69.87%) is somewhat detectable but reviews additionally confounded with product-ownership (66.19–74.17%), or with data-origin (84.44–86.94%) are easier to classify. Review veracity is most easily classified if confounded with product-ownership and data-origin combined (87.78–88.12%). These findings are moderated by review polarity. Overall, our findings suggest that detection accuracy may have been overestimated in previous studies, provide possible explanations as to why, and indicate how future studies might be designed to provide less biased estimates of detection accuracy. 

PLoS ONE 17(12): 2022

By Sergi D. Bray , Shane D. Johnson and Bennett Kleinberg

Deepfakes’ are computationally created entities that falsely represent reality. They can take image, video, and audio modalities, and pose a threat to many areas of systems and societies, comprising a topic of interest to various aspects of cybersecurity and cybersafety. In 2020, a workshop consulting AI experts from academia, policing, government, the private sector, and state security agencies ranked deepfakes as the most serious AI threat. These experts noted that since fake material can propagate through many uncontrolled routes, changes in citizen behaviour may be the only effective defence. This study aims to assess human ability to identify image deepfakes of human faces (these being uncurated output from the StyleGAN2 algorithm as trained on the FFHQ dataset) from a pool of non-deepfake images (these being random selection of images from the FFHQ dataset), and to assess the effectiveness of some simple interventions intended to improve detection accuracy. Using an online survey, participants (N = 280) were randomly allocated to one of four groups: a control group, and three assistance interventions. Each participant was shown a sequence of 20 images randomly selected from a pool of 50 deepfake images of human faces and 50 images of real human faces. Participants were asked whether each image was AI-generated or not, to report their confidence, and to describe the reasoning behind each response. Overall detection accuracy was only just above chance and none of the interventions significantly improved this. Of equal concern was the fact that participants’ confidence in their answers was high and unrelated to accuracy. Assessing the results on a per-image basis reveals that participants consistently found certain images easy to label correctly and certain images difficult, but reported similarly high confidence regardless of the image. Thus, although participant accuracy was 62% overall, this accuracy across images ranged quite evenly between 85 and 30%, with an accuracy of below 50% for one in every five images. We interpret the findings as suggesting that there is a need for an urgent call to action to address this threat. 

Journal of Cybersecurity, 2023, 1–18 

By Michael J. Frith  , Kate J. Bowers  , Shane D. Johnson 

Introduction: In response to COVID-19, governments imposed various restrictions on movement and activities. According to the routine activity perspective, these should alter where crime occurs. For burglary, greater household occupancy should increase guardianship against residential burglaries, particularly during the day considering factors such as working from home. Conversely, there should be less eyes on the street to protect against non-residential burglaries. Methods: In this paper, we test these expectations using a spatio-temporal model with crime and Google Community Mobility data. Results: As expected, burglary declined during the pandemic and restrictions. Different types of burglary were, however, affected differently but largely consistent with theoretical expectation. Residential and attempted residential burglaries both decreased significantly. This was particularly the case during the day for completed residential burglaries. Moreover, while changes were coincident with the timing and relaxation of restrictions, they were better explained by fluctuations in household occupancy. However, while there were significant decreases in non-residential and attempted non-residential burglary, these did not appear to be related to changes to activity patterns, but rather the lockdown phase. Conclusions: From a theoretical perspective, the results generally provide further support for routine activity perspective. From a practical perspective, they suggest considerations for anticipating future burglary trends 

Journal of Criminal Justice, v. 82, 2022

By Shane D. Johnson and  Manja Nikolovska

Objectives Routine activity theory suggests that levels of crime are affected by peoples’ activity patterns. Here, we examine if, through their impact on people’s on- and off-line activities, COVID-19 restriction affected fraud committed on- and off-line during the pandemic. Our expectation was that levels of online offending would closely follow changes to mobility and online activity—with crime increasing as restrictions were imposed (and online activity increased) and declining as they were relaxed. For doorstep fraud, which has a different opportunity structure, our expectation was that the reverse would be true. Method COVID-19 restrictions systematically disrupted people’s activity patterns, creating quasi-experimental conditions well-suited to testing the effects of “interventions” on crime. We exploit those conditions using ARIMA time series models and UK data for online shopping fraud, hacking, doorstep fraud, online sales, and mobility to test hypotheses. Doorstep fraud is modelled as a non-equivalent dependent variable, allowing us to test whether findings were selective and in line with theoretical expectations. Results After controlling for other factors, levels of crime committed online were positively associated with monthly variation in online activities and negatively associated with monthly variation in mobility. In contrast, and as expected, monthly variation in doorstep fraud was positively associated with changes in mobility. Conclusions We find evidence consistent with routine activity theory, suggesting that disruptions to people’s daily activity patterns afect levels of crime committed both on- and off-line. The theoretical implications of the findings, and the need to develop a better evidence base about what works to reduce online crime, are discussed. 

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2022.

By Robert J. Sampson and L. Ash Smith

The social transformations of crime and punishment in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries challenge traditional conceptions of criminal propensity and character. A life-course framework on cohort differences in growing up during these times of social change highlights large-scale inequalities in life experiences. Entire cohorts of children have come of age in such different historical contexts that typical markers of a crime-prone character, such as being a chronic offender or having an arrest record, are as much a function of societal change as of an individual’s early life propensities or background characteristics, including classic risk factors emphasized in criminology. When we are thus matters as much as, and perhaps more than, who we are—despite law, practice, and theory privileging the latter. Because crime over the life course is shaped by changing socio-historical conditions, it must be studied as such. Multi-cohort studies provide a key strategy for doing so, inspiring a reconsideration of criminal propensity and policies premised on unchanging predictors of future criminality. Developmental and life-course criminology should elevate the study of cohort differences in social change and, ultimately, societal character.

Crime and Justice, Volume 50, 2021

By Muhammad Amien Ibrahim, Samsul Arifin and Eko Setyo Purwanto

Social media moderation is a crucial component to establish healthy online communities and ensuring online safety from hate speech and offensive language. In many cases, hate speech may be targeted at specific gender which could be expressed in many different languages on social media platforms such as Indonesian Twitter. However, difficulties such as data scarcity and the imbalanced gender-based hate speech dataset in Indonesian tweets have slowed the development and implementation of automatic social media moderation. Obtaining more data to increase the number of samples may be costly in terms of resources required to gather and annotate the data. This study looks at the usage of data augmentation methods to increase the amount of textual dataset while keeping the quality of the augmented data. Three augmentation strategies are explored in this study: Random insertion, back translation, and a sequential combination of back translation and random insertion. Additionally, the study examines the preservation of the increased data labels. The performance result demonstrates that classification models trained with augmented data generated from random insertion strategy outperform the other approaches. In terms of label preservation, the three augmentation approaches have been shown to offer enough label preservation without compromising the meaning of the augmented data. The findings imply that by increasing the amount of the dataset while preserving the original label, data augmentation could be utilized to solve issues such as data scarcity and dataset imbalance.

United States, Journal Of Computer Science. 2023, 9pg

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM; MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES; ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP

From the document: "The 'Global Risks Report 2024' presents the findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which captures insights from nearly 1,500 global experts. The report analyses global risks through three time frames to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 explores the most severe current risks, and those ranked highest by survey respondents, over a two-year period, analysing in depth the three risks that have rapidly accelerated into the top 10 rankings over the two-year horizon. Chapter 2 focuses on the top risks emerging over the next decade against a backdrop of geostrategic, climate, technological and demographic shifts, diving deeper into four specific risk outlooks. The report concludes by considering approaches for addressing complex and non-linear aspects of global risks during this period of global fragmentation."

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM; MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES; ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP

BY SMARRELLI, GABRIELA; WU, DONGYI; BAAGO-RASMUSSEN, LINE; HARES, SUSANNAH; NAKER, DIPAK

From the document: "This brief has been developed to support conversations on addressing violence in and through education. It focuses specifically on violence against children in and around schools, while fully recognising that different forms of violence are interconnected, and occur in multiple settings including homes, communities, and online. The brief provides an overview of the magnitude and effects of violence in and around schools and a review of evidence-based interventions aimed at eliminating school-related violence. The brief should not be viewed as an expansive summary. Readers interested in further details are recommended to visit the studies cited in the references."

CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT; COALITION FOR GOOD SCHOOLS; SAFE TO LEARN

From the document: "Cyber threat actors are aware of--and deliberately target--single points of failure. A compromise or failure of a Water and Wastewater (WWS) Sector organization could cause cascading impacts throughout the Sector and other critical infrastructure sectors [hyperlink]. There are many aspects of the large and complex WWS Sector that pose challenges to raising cyber resilience sector wide: [1] Governance and regulation involve a mix of federal and state, local, tribal, and territorial authorities. [2] Cybersecurity maturity levels across the sector are disparate. [3] Often, WWS Sector utilities must prioritize limited resources toward the functionality of their water systems over cybersecurity. [4] Universal solutions to cyber challenges in a diverse, target-rich, and resource-poor environment are unfeasible. To provide meaningful cybersecurity support to the WWS Sector that can help with these challenges, CISA [Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency]--in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), as well as the federal government and WWS Sector partners listed in this guide's acknowledgement section--has created this joint Incident Response Guide (IRG) for the WWS Sector. The unique value of this joint IRG is that it provides WWS Sector owners and operators information about the federal roles, resources, and responsibilities for each stage of the cyber incident response (IR) lifecycle. Sector owners and operators can use this information to augment their respective IR plans and procedures. By empowering individual WWS Sector utilities, the authors of this guide--CISA, FBI, EPA, and the acknowledged federal government and WWS Sector partners--aim to drive improvements to cyber resilience and incident response across the WWS Sector."

From the document: "The healthcare sector is particularly vulnerable to cybersecurity risks and the stakes for patient care and safety are particularly high. Healthcare facilities are attractive targets for cyber criminals in light of their size, technological dependence, sensitive data, and unique vulnerability to disruptions. And cyber incidents in healthcare are on the rise. For instance, HHS tracks large data breaches through its Office for Civil Rights (OCR), whose data shows a 93% increase in large breaches reported from 2018 to 2022 (369 to 712), with a 278% increase in large breaches reported to OCR involving ransomware from 2018 to 2022. Cyber incidents affecting hospitals and health systems have led to extended care disruptions caused by multi-week outages; patient diversion to other facilities; and strain on acute care provisioning and capacity, causing cancelled medical appointments, non-rendered services, and delayed medical procedures (particularly elective procedures). More importantly, they put patients' safety at risk and impact local and surrounding communities that depend on the availability of the local emergency department, radiology unit, or cancer center for life-saving care. [...] This paper provides an overview of HHS' [U.S. Department of Health and Human Services'] proposed framework to help the healthcare sector address these cybersecurity threats and protect patients."

By Global Commission on Drug Policy 

Illegal drug markets provide an immense source of power and revenue for organized criminal groups. That has remained the case despite the vast investment of political, financial, social, and military capital into the global “war on drugs,” which has also generated a vast and tragic human cost. Far from curtailing drug markets, which are in fact expanding in scale and complexity worldwide, repressive criminal justice and military responses to drug trafficking have exacerbated the already profound impacts of drug-related organized crime, from prolific violence in certain states to increased corruption, and undermined political and economic stability. Deep-seated schisms continue in international debates on drug policy. Despite renewed commitment to the prohibitionist approach at the March 2019 Ministerial Declaration of the United Nations (UN) Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND), there is increasing acknowledgement within the UN system of the harms of the current drug control regime, and the need to pursue options such as decriminalization of use and possession for personal use. Countries are increasingly adopting decriminalization models, and the legalization and regulation of cannabis for recreational use is becoming a reality in a number of jurisdictions. Yet at the same time, other countries have moved in the opposite direction, redoubling efforts to eradicate drug use through punitive approaches which harm health and human rights. Given this highly polarized context, the need for reform-minded states to advocate for evidence-based responses to organized crime and drug trafficking is greater than ever. This report supports this effort by building on the five key pathways towards improving drug policy as outlined in the Global Commission’s 2014 report. Alongside strategies to ensure the health and safety of those using drugs, this coherent five-fold program advocates for refocused enforcement responses to drug trafficking and organized crime as an essential part of drug policy reform. This report provides an overview of how the global “war on drugs” has, counter to its ostensible aims, fed and empowered transnational organized crime. More effective responses to transnational organized crime and drug trafficking – through both targeted and measured law enforcement approaches and development strategies which counter the root causes of organized crime – are possible and may be enacted even while markets remain illegal. The legal regulation of drugs offers an unprecedented opportunity to move drugs markets out of criminal control, as the Global Commission stated last year, but also presents new challenges for countering organized crime. This report explores lessons learned both in a context of prohibition and of a legally regulated market. Implementation of more progressive drug policies has often been held back by the international control regime; through a lack of coherence among UN entities, between regional bodies, and the deep-seated conservatism in the international regime. As such, this report considers the past record of the international drug control regime with respect to the fight against drug trafficking, and how more effective coordination could be achieved in the future, if political will is to be found. 

Geneva: The Global Commission, 2020. 52p.

By Beau Kilmer | Bryce Pardo | Toyya A. Pujol | Jonathan P. Caulkins

Background and aims: Synthetic opioids, mostly illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF), were mentioned in 60% of United States (US) drug overdose deaths in 2020, with dramatic variation across states that mirrors variation in IMF supply. However, little is known about IMF markets in the United States and how they are changing. Researchers have previously used data from undercover cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine purchases and seizures to examine how their use and related harms respond to changes in price and availability. This analysis used US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data to address two questions: (i) “To what extent does IMF supply vary over time and geography?” and (ii) “What has happened to the purity-adjusted price of IMF?” Methods: We developed descriptive statistics and visualizations using data from 66 713 observations mentioning IMF and/or heroin from the DEA’s System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE; now STARLIMS) from 2013 to 2021. Price regressions were estimated with city-level fixed effects examining IMF-only powder observations with purity and price information at the low-to-medium wholesale level (>1 g to ≤100 g; n = 964). Results: From 2013 to 2021, the share of heroin and/or IMF observations mentioning IMF grew from near zero to more than two-thirds. The share of heroin observations also containing IMF grew from <1% to 40%. There is important geographic variation: in California, most IMF seizures involved counterfeit tablets, whereas New York and Massachusetts largely involved powder formulation. The median price per pure gram of IMF powder sold at the >10 to ≤100 g level fell by more than 50% from 2016 to 2021; regression analyses suggested an average annual decline of 17% (P < 0.001). However, this price decline appears to have been driven by observations from the Northeast. Conclusions: Since 2013, the illegally manufactured fentanyl problem in the United States has become more deadly and more diverse. 

Addiction. 2022;117:2745–2749. 

By Julia A Dilley, Susan M Richardson, Beau Kilmer, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Mary B Segawa, Magdalena Cerdá

Methods| The Washington Healthy Youth Survey (HYS) 2 is an anonymous, school-based survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders and the state’s primary source of information about health behavior among youths. The HYS has been implemented in the fall of even-numbered years since 2002, using a simple random sample of public schools to generate a state-representative sample. Response rates (incorporating school and student response) in 2016 were 80% for 8th grade, 69% for 10th grade, and 49% for 12th grade. The study was approved by the Washington State Institutional Review Board, whose general policy waives informed patient consent when data are de-identified. We Generated Covariate-adjusted prevalence estimates, modeling as closely as possible to Cerdá et al. Prevalence was based on modeled estimates (ie, SUDAAN predMARG [RTI International] postestimation command). Because the the MTF is not designed to provide state-representative estimates, the article generated covariate-adjusted modeled prevalence estimates for each state. The article suggested complex association between legalization and cannabis use among youths: increases in prevalence among Washington 8th and 10th graders, but not among 12th graders, relative to use in states without legalization of recreational marijuana.

The authors noted that, “the sample design may lead to discrepancies between MTF results and those found in other large-scale surveillance efforts.”1(p148) The purpose of the present study was to assess whether trends in cannabis use prevalence among youths from Washington’s state-based youth survey are consistent with findings from the MTF.

JAMA pediatrics, 173(2) 2019

By Bridget E. Weller,  Stephen Magura,  Dawn R. Smith, Matthew M. Saxton, Piyadarsha Amaratunga

  Background: Drug monitoring by drug testing of individuals under arrest provides an opportunity to detect drug use patterns within geographic areas. However, women have been omitted from large-scale monitoring efforts in criminal justice populations. The purpose of this study was to examine whether gender differences exist in drug use indicated by oral fluid collected in one U.S. jail. Methods: The study analyzed data collected in 2019-2020 from individuals under arrest (N = 191). Twenty-four percent of the sample identified as female. Oral fluid specimens were collected and then analyzed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry. Logit regression models examined gender differences. Results: Women were more likely to test positive for methamphetamines than men (41% versus 22%, OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.21-0.84). Significant gender differences were not found for other substances (marijuana, cocaine, and opioids), legality of drugs, or overall drug use. Conclusions: Because the National Institute on Drug Abuse aims to promote health equity, future drug monitoring in criminal justice populations should employ sampling approaches representing both women and men. This research would identify possible gender-based patterns of drug use and inform gender-based policies and clinical practices to prevent and treat drug misuse.

J Subst Use. 2023 ; 28(4): 541–544. 

By Tara N. Richards; Justin Nix; Bradley A. Campbell; Emily Wright; Caralin C. Branscum; Sheena L. Gilbert; Michaela Benson-Goldsmith; Emily K. Meinert

This final report for the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) Award 2019-MU-MU-0095 describes a research project that used a variety of methods to evaluate the activities undertaken by stakeholders in the Minnesota Sexual Assault Initiative (MN SAKI) project, including the following four goals: eliminating untested sexual assault kits (SAKs); building capacity for criminal justice agencies to test SAKs, pursuing all investigatory leads, providing victim referrals, and prosecuting cases resulting from testing; and strengthening victim services. The authors also completed a cost-benefit analysis of MN SAKI Project’s SAK testing efforts. The report provides details and outcomes regarding each of the project goals; it discusses SAK outcomes, costs, and benefits, and discusses the project findings and implications. The document's appendixes provide the following documents: Bureau of Criminal Apprehension Report on the MN Law Enforcement Agency Survey of Untested Rape Kits as Required by SF0878; MDT Interview Questions; Stakeholder Informed Consent Form; Victim Reaction Form; Victim-Survivor Experiences Interview Guide; Victim-Survivor Informed Consent Form; ViCAP Interview Guide; Minnesota Track-Kit Patient Guide; and Minnesota SAKI Victim-Survivor Notification Guide. 
Final report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2023. 218p.

By Karamoja–Turkana and the Community Research Team 

Ipoln the Karamoja and Turkana border regions of Uganda and Kenya, there is widespread violence including armed robbery, rape, and human rights abuses, yet community complaints about failures of governance remain largely unaddressed. This Policy Briefing highlights how different insecurities reinforce one another in ways exacerbated by the international border. It stresses the need for fulfilment of the two governments’ commitments to cross-border solutions, and suggests that international policy actors can help communities gain leverage with governments towards building trustworthy and effective peace and security institutions.

IDS Policy Briefing 214,

Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies, 2023. 4p.

By Jacob Bor, Atheendar S Venkataramani, David R Williams, Alexander C Tsai

Background Police kill more than 300 black Americans—at least a quarter of them unarmed—each year in the USA. These events might have spillover effects on the mental health of people not directly affected. Methods In this population-based, quasi-experimental study, we combined novel data on police killings with individual-level data from the nationally representative 2013–15 US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimate the causal impact of police killings of unarmed black Americans on self-reported mental health of other black American adults in the US general population. The primary exposure was the number of police killings of unarmed black Americans occurring in the 3 months prior to the BRFSS interview within the same state. The primary outcome was the number of days in the previous month in which the respondent’s mental health was reported as “not good”. We estimated difference-in-differences regression models—adjusting for state-month, monthyear, and interview-day fixed effects, as well as age, sex, and educational attainment. We additionally assessed the timing of effects, the specificity of the effects to black Americans, and the robustness of our findings. Findings 38 993 (weighted sample share 49%) of 103710 black American respondents were exposed to one or more police killings of unarmed black Americans in their state of residence in the 3 months prior to the survey. Each additional police killing of an unarmed black American was associated with 0·14 additional poor mental health days (95% CI 0·07–0·22; p=0·00047) among black American respondents. The largest effects on mental health occurred in the 1–2 months after exposure, with no significant effects estimated for respondents interviewed before police killings (falsification test). Mental health impacts were not observed among white respondents and resulted only from police killings of unarmed black Americans (not unarmed white Americans or armed black Americans). Interpretation Police killings of unarmed black Americans have adverse effects on mental health among black American adults in the general population. Programmes should be implemented to decrease the frequency of police killings and to mitigate adverse mental health effects within communities when such killings do occur.

Lancet 2018; 392: 302–10