By Sarah Pedersen,  Natascha Mueller-Hirth, Leia Miller

COVID-19 exacerbated challenges that already existed in the policing of Gender-Based Violence (GBV) in remote and rural northern Scotland. Victims’ direct access to the police and third-sector organisations was impeded by social distancing while the pandemic exacerbated extant issues relating to staffing, particularly in relation to female police officers. On the positive side, the flexibility that already characterised rural and remote policing continued, and police officers and third-sector organisations worked together to support victims. The move to videoconferencing was hailed as a positive move in an area where travel to meetings or court can be difficult and expensive. A lack of training for officers with no specific GBV role was identified as particularly problematic during the pandemic when officers on the ground in rural and remote Scotland had to take over work usually undertaken by specialist task forces.

Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice, 2023. 12p.

By The National Association of Manufacturers

Amid an unprecedented global health crisis, manufacturers have stepped up and taken the lead, working together and with national, state and local governments to fight the spread of COVID-19. Manufacturers deliver day-to-day necessities, lifesaving medical innovations and products that improve people’s lives in countless ways. While the pandemic has demonstrated anew the importance of American innovation and ingenuity, it has also revealed a serious threat: counterfeit products that put lives and livelihoods at risk. Counterfeiting is not a new problem; it has harmed manufacturers, American workers and consumers for years. But the problem is getting worse, and the COVID-19 pandemic has shown just how dangerous inaction can be. As part of the nation’s critical response effort, manufacturers have been supplying health care workers and other Americans on the front lines of this crisis with vital goods, including personal protective equipment, hospital beds, ventilators, hand sanitizers, cleaning supplies and other critical health care and safety products. But while manufacturing men and women work long hours to ramp up production of desperately needed products to fight the spread of this deadly illness, counterfeiters have exploited the crisis to peddle fake tests, dangerous vaccines and ineffective protective gear. These counterfeits are harming American citizens and hindering manufacturers’ efforts to protect their workers and communities. The prevalence of counterfeits in the COVID-19 response has brought new urgency to this long-simmering issue. So the National Association of Manufacturers is leading the charge against fake and counterfeit goods, bringing together diverse stakeholders and driving innovative policy solutions to address these issues once and for all and to ensure the long-term success of our sector and the safety and security of the people who rely on our products. 

Washington, DC: National Association of Manufacturers, 2020.  21p.

By Faith Honor , Amanda Shaverand Devin Thorne

The trafficking of pangolins and their scales drives corruption, undermines the rule of law, creates public health risks, and even threatens local and regional security. Additionally, the illicit pangolin trade may have even played a role in onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.1 Critically, the trade—and all of its related challenges—appears to be growing: between 2015 and 2019, 253 tonnes2 of pangolin scales were confiscated, and the annual quantity of pangolin scales seized increased by nearly 400%. To expose the logistics of how these scales are trafficked internationally, Tipping the Scales uses publicly available seizure data and investigative case studies. The global plight of pangolins is increasingly well-known, but less understood are the opaque supply chains that enable pangolin trafficking. To trace this illicit system from consolidation hubs in West and Central Africa to China’s consumer markets, Tipping the Scales analyses 899 pangolin seizures. Drawing on C4ADS’ Wildlife Seizure Database, law enforcement partner seizure data, official government documents, corporate data, and expert interviews, the report details how traffickers nest their activities within licit systems of trade and commerce. To disrupt this trade, C4ADS identifies opportunities for intervention and capacity building.

In Section I, the report finds that pangolin scale traffickers have co-opted bushmeat supply chains and legal breeding programs for their illicit activities. Bushmeat scale trafficking supply chains are particularly prominent in Central and West Africa; 72% of African scale seizures over the last five years have come from those regions. Growing demand for pangolin meat and scales has made pangolins a dual-transaction good3 that relies on transport networks between rural areas and urban and coastal distribution hubs. Further, the report finds that pangolin breeding programs in sub-Saharan Africa obscure the lines between poaching, conservation, and science. In Section II, the report finds that bulk pangolin scale shipments often exit the continent through coastal countries in Central and West Africa. While 70% of intercontinental trafficking instances tied to Africa rely on the air transport sector, 81% of the total weight of pangolin scales are trafficked intercontinentally via the maritime transport sector. China and Hong Kong are the trade’s most prominent destinations. Since 2015, 42% of the 195 tonnes of pangolin scales seized throughout Asia originated in Africa and were seized in or bound for China or Hong Kong. In Section III, the report finds that there are more than 1,000 companies, hospitals, and other entities participating in China’s legal market for medicinal pangolin products. In this market, which allows companies to privately stockpile pangolin scales, traffickers exploit lax regulations to sell scales from Africa and Asia. Government-reported pangolin scale consumption quotas, geo-tagged company data, and seizures suggest that Guangdong and Hunan provinces have relatively high levels of exposure to both the legal pangolin market and pangolin trafficking. Based on these findings, Tipping the Scales makes 10 recommendations to increase detection of and improve enforcement against transnational criminal networks operating in Africa and Asia (see page 58).

Washington, D: C4ADS, 2020. 60p.

By Alana Cook

Over the past two decades, there has been a long-term decline in motor vehicle theft. Stolen vehicle numbers reached an historic low in September 2021 following two COVID-19 lockdowns, steadily increasing since then. In March 2023 the number of vehicles stolen in NSW was higher than any month in the previous six years and increased 21.3% year-on-year. This paper considers the increase in motor vehicle theft up to March 2023 focusing on where the increase is most pronounced, which vehicles are affected, and who appears to be responsible. Key features of the recent increase in incidents of motor vehicle theft include: • The increase in vehicle theft is not uniform across NSW. In a number of regional locations vehicle theft has shown strong growth and is now much higher than at any point in previous five years. This applies to New England and North-West, Richmond-Tweed, Far West and Orana, Mid North Coast, and Central West. In New England and North West, for instance, vehicle theft was 67% higher in the year to March 2023 compared with five years earlier and the number of vehicles stolen in March 2023 (n=91) was the highest since records began in 1995. • This contrasts with the pattern of vehicle theft in other parts of NSW, particularly Greater Sydney, where the volume of vehicles stolen still remains lower than prior to the pandemic. In these locations, increases seem to simply reflect recovery from the COVID-related crime fall. • Vehicles stolen in Regional NSW are more likely to be recovered than vehicles stolen in Greater Sydney. This suggests motor vehicle theft in regional locations may be more likely to be conducted opportunistically for joyriding and transport purposes. • Young people appear to be responsible for the increase in vehicle theft in Regional NSW with a 179% increase in legal actions against this group over the five years to March 2023. A significant, but smaller increase in young people proceeded against in Greater Sydney was also observed (up 52%). • Theft patterns vary by vehicle make and year of manufacture. In the year to March 2023: š The most frequently stolen vehicles were manufactured by Toyota, Holden, and Ford, all of which are very common vehicles. š The vehicle makes with the highest rate of theft were Holdens, Jeeps, and Land Rovers. š Common vehicle makes with the largest percentage increase in theft in the five years to March 2023 were Kias, Jeeps, Isuzus, Land Rovers, and Volkswagens. š Older vehicles are much more susceptible to theft than recent models. • The recent increase in vehicle theft is at least partially a bounce-back from the COVID-driven crime declines of 2020 and 2021 as pandemic restrictions eased. Another factor, however, particularly in certain regional communities, may be associated with reports of social media posts encouraging vehicle theft on the platform TikTok. 

(Bureau Brief No. 166). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 11p

By Alana Cook

As with many property crimes, incidents of retail theft fell significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since October 2021, however, retail theft offences have been steadily increasing, up 47.5% year-on-year to June 2023. This paper considers the increase in retail theft up to June 2023 focusing on the regions where retail theft is increasing, what items is being stolen and from where, and who appears to be responsible. Findings show: • The sharp increase in retail theft following the removal of pandemic related restrictions has brought retail theft volumes back to equivalence with pre-pandemic figures in both Greater Sydney and Regional NSW. The absence of an increase in theft reports beyond what was reported prior to the pandemic suggests the upward trend reflects a return to pre-pandemic offending levels. The trend does not support emerging external factors, such as the cost-of-living crisis, driving an increase in this offence. • The most frequently reported stolen item in retail theft is liquor, including bourbon, whiskey, and vodka (stolen in 37% of incidents), followed by clothing (22%). Retail theft of personal items, such as perfume and cosmetics, has declined in the past five years (stolen in 13% of incidents). • Locations recording the biggest increase in steal from retail incidents over the past five years are licenced premises and general wholesalers. Department or clothing stores and chemists have reported the largest decreases. • $440 was the average value of items stolen in retail theft incidents in 2022/23. • Almost half of all retail theft offenders are aged 30 to 39 years but after accounting for population, young people aged 14 to 17 years had the highest rate of involvement with NSW Police.

(Bureau Brief No. 168). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 10p.

By Michael J. Frith  , Kate J. Bowers  , Shane D. Johnson 

Introduction: In response to COVID-19, governments imposed various restrictions on movement and activities. According to the routine activity perspective, these should alter where crime occurs. For burglary, greater household occupancy should increase guardianship against residential burglaries, particularly during the day considering factors such as working from home. Conversely, there should be less eyes on the street to protect against non-residential burglaries. Methods: In this paper, we test these expectations using a spatio-temporal model with crime and Google Community Mobility data. Results: As expected, burglary declined during the pandemic and restrictions. Different types of burglary were, however, affected differently but largely consistent with theoretical expectation. Residential and attempted residential burglaries both decreased significantly. This was particularly the case during the day for completed residential burglaries. Moreover, while changes were coincident with the timing and relaxation of restrictions, they were better explained by fluctuations in household occupancy. However, while there were significant decreases in non-residential and attempted non-residential burglary, these did not appear to be related to changes to activity patterns, but rather the lockdown phase. Conclusions: From a theoretical perspective, the results generally provide further support for routine activity perspective. From a practical perspective, they suggest considerations for anticipating future burglary trends 

Journal of Criminal Justice, v. 82, 2022

By Shane D. Johnson and  Manja Nikolovska

Objectives Routine activity theory suggests that levels of crime are affected by peoples’ activity patterns. Here, we examine if, through their impact on people’s on- and off-line activities, COVID-19 restriction affected fraud committed on- and off-line during the pandemic. Our expectation was that levels of online offending would closely follow changes to mobility and online activity—with crime increasing as restrictions were imposed (and online activity increased) and declining as they were relaxed. For doorstep fraud, which has a different opportunity structure, our expectation was that the reverse would be true. Method COVID-19 restrictions systematically disrupted people’s activity patterns, creating quasi-experimental conditions well-suited to testing the effects of “interventions” on crime. We exploit those conditions using ARIMA time series models and UK data for online shopping fraud, hacking, doorstep fraud, online sales, and mobility to test hypotheses. Doorstep fraud is modelled as a non-equivalent dependent variable, allowing us to test whether findings were selective and in line with theoretical expectations. Results After controlling for other factors, levels of crime committed online were positively associated with monthly variation in online activities and negatively associated with monthly variation in mobility. In contrast, and as expected, monthly variation in doorstep fraud was positively associated with changes in mobility. Conclusions We find evidence consistent with routine activity theory, suggesting that disruptions to people’s daily activity patterns afect levels of crime committed both on- and off-line. The theoretical implications of the findings, and the need to develop a better evidence base about what works to reduce online crime, are discussed. 

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2022.

By C.J. Valaseka , Samantha A. Streuli a, Heather A. Pines , Steffanie A. Strathdeec , Annick Borquez , Philippe Bourgois , Tara Stamos-Buesige , Carlos F. Verac , Alicia Harvey-Verac , Angela R. Bazzi

Background: People who use drugs (PWUD) in the San Diego, USA and Tijuana, Mexico metroplex face high overdose risk related to historic methamphetamine use and relatively recent fentanyl introduction into local drug supplies. The personal overdose experiences of PWUD in this region are understudied, however, and may have been influenced by the COVID pandemic. Methods: From September-November 2021, we conducted 28 qualitative interviews among PWUD ≥18 years old sampled from an ongoing cohort study in the San Diego-Tijuana metroplex. Interviews explored overdose experiences and changes in the drug supply. Thematic analysis of coded interview transcripts explored overdose experiences, perspectives on drug supply changes, interactions with harm reduction services, and naloxone access. Results: Among 28 participants, 13 had experienced an overdose. Participants discussed rising levels of fentanyl in local drug supplies and increasing overdose incidents in their social networks. Participants discussed a general shift from injecting heroin to smoking fentanyl in their networks. Participants’ most common concerns included having consistent access to a safe and potent drug supply and naloxone. Conclusion: Participants prioritized adapting to drug supply changes and preventing overdose compared to other health concerns, such as HIV and COVID-19. Efforts to address overdose in this region could benefit from drug checking services and expanded, equitable delivery of naloxone.

Volume 7, June 2023, 100154, Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports

By Michael Levi and Russell G Smith

This report seeks to draw out the common characteristics of frauds associated with pandemics, and to identify any risks unique to pandemics and financial crises, beginning with the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, as the closest to COVID-19 in the modern era. It summarises the general influence of the internet or remote intrusions on contemporary frauds and allied corporate/ organised crimes against individuals, businesses and government, using plausibly reliable data from Australia and the United Kingdom as indicative of more general trends. The report identifies some novel crime types and methodologies arising during the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020 that were not seen in previous pandemics. These changes may result from public health measures taken in response to COVID-19, the current state of technologies and the activities of law enforcement and regulatory guardians. The report notes that many frauds occur whatever the state of the economy, but that some specific frauds occur during pandemics, especially online fraud. Similarly, some previously occurring frauds are revealed by economic crises, while frauds arising from and causing insolvencies are stimulated by economic crises. The report concludes with a discussion of the policy implications for prevention, resilience and for private and public policing and criminal justice in Australia. It stresses the need for plans for future pandemics and economic crises to include provisions for better early monitoring and control of fraud and procurement corruption. Research Report no. 19.

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2021. 74p.

By Katrin Hohl

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns have provided an unprecedented opportunity to study how such situational factors affect police recorded domestic abuse. This article presents findings from a large, representative study of the effect of the introduction and lifting of lockdowns on the volume and nature of domestic abuse recorded by seven English police forces within the first 12 months of the pandemic. The results suggest that lockdowns and the pandemic context did not create the domestic abuse crisis, and that the crisis does not go away when lockdown restrictions lift. Lockdowns interact with and amplify underlying patterns of domestic abuse. Notable differences between police forces suggest that local contexts and local police force practices play a role, with implications beyond pandemic contexts.

London: Criminology & Criminal Justice, 2023, 23p.

By Richard Walton, Sophia Falkner and Benjamin Barnard

Research by Policy Exchange finds that fraud and error during the COVID-19 crisis will cost the UK Government in the region of £4.6 billion. The lower bound for the cost of fraud in this crisis is £1.3 billion and the upper bound is £7.9 billion, in light of total projected expenditure of £154.3 billion by the Government (excluding additional expenditure announced in the 8th July 2020 Economic Update). The true value may be closer to the upper bound, due to the higher than usual levels of fraud that normally accompany disaster management.

London: Policy Exchange, 2020. 78p.

By Nagesh N. Borse, June Cha, Christina G. Chase, Raashi Gaur, et al.

Substandard and falsified medical products such as vaccines and medicines are a serious and growing global health issue1 . Other health products such as diagnostic kits and infection preventatives, including but not limited to masks and hand sanitizers, are also found on the market in substandard and falsified versions, as discussed below. In this article, the authors refer to all of these products as substandard and falsified health products (SFHP).* COVID-19, like previous pandemics, has increased the vulnerability of global supply chains to SFHP. This paper explores the basics of SFHP, reviews what we have learned from past pandemics, and offers a perspective on existing and needed tools to protect health products, and the people who use them, from the threat of SFHP.

Washington, DC: USP, 2021. 11p.

By The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Restrictions on movement imposed by govern- ments across the world due to the COVID-19 pandemic have had an impact on the trafficking of substandard and falsified medical products. Interpol and the World Customs Organization (WCO) reported that seizures of substandard and falsified medical products, including person- al protective equipment (PPE), increased for the first time in March 2020. The emergence of trafficking in PPE signals a significant shift in organized criminal group behaviour that is directly attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has brought huge demand for medical products such as PPE over a relatively short period of time. It is foreseeable that, with the evolution of COVID-19 and developments in medicinal treatments and/or the repurposing of existing medicines, criminal behaviour will shift from trafficking in PPE to the development and delivery of a COVID-19 vaccine. Furthermore, cyberattacks on critical infrastructure involved in addressing the pandemic are likely to continue in the form of online scams aimed at health procurement authorities. Challenges in pandemic preparedness, ranging from weak regulatory and legal frameworks to the prevention of the manufacturing and trafficking of substandard and falsified products and cyber security shortcomings, were evident before COVID-19, but the pandemic has exacerbated them and it will be difficult to make significant improvements in the immediate short term. The report concludes that crime targeting COVID-19 medical products will become more focused with significantly greater risks to pub- lic health as the containment phase of the pan- demic passes to the treatment and prevention stages.

Vienna: UNODC Research and Trend Analysis Branch. 2020. 31p

ByThe Financial Action Task Force

he COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges, human suffering and economic disruption. It has also led to an increase in COVID-19-related crimes, including fraud, cybercrime, misdirection or exploitation of government funds or international financial assistance, which is creating new sources of proceeds for illicit actors. Using information provided to the members of the FATF Global Network on 7 and 23 April, this paper identifies challenges, good practices and policy responses to new money laundering and terrorist financing threats and vulnerabilities arising from the COVID-19 crisis.

As the world is focusing on responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, it is impacting on the ability of government and the private sector to implement anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing (AML/CFT) obligations in areas including supervision, regulation and policy reform, suspicious transaction reporting and international cooperation. This could lead to emerging risks and vulnerabilities that could result in criminals finding ways to:

• Bypass customer due diligence measures;

• Increase misuse of online financial services and virtual assets to move and conceal illicit funds;

• Exploit economic stimulus measures and insolvency schemes as a means for natural and legal persons to conceal and launder illicit proceeds;

• Increase use of the unregulated financial sector, creating additional opportunities for criminals to launder illicit funds;

• Misuse and misappropriation of domestic and international financial aid and emergency funding;

• Exploit COVID-19 and the associated economic downturn to move into new cash-intensive and high-liquidity lines of business in developing countries.

AML/CFT policy responses can help support the swift and effective implementation of measures to respond to COVID-19, while managing new risks and vulnerabilities. This paper provides examples of such responses, which include:

• Domestic coordination to assess the impact of COVID-19 on AML/CFT risks and systems;

• Strengthened communication with the private sector;

• Encouraging the full use of a risk-based approach to customer due diligence;

• Supporting electronic and digital payment options.

Paris: FATF, 2020. 34p.

By The Financial Action Task Force (FATF)

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented global challenges, human suffering and economic hardship. The pandemic has also spawned a range of COVID-19-related crimes, which are creating new sources of income for criminal networks. In May, the FATF highlighted the COVID-19-related money laundering and terrorist financing risks and policy responses.

Today, the FATF releases an Update-COVID-19-Related-Money-Laundering-and-Terrorist-Financing-Risks

The paper confirms the concerns expressed by the FATF in May, including:

• Changing financial behaviours - especially significant increases in online purchases due to widespread lockdowns and temporary closures of most physical bank branches, with services transitioning online.

• Increased financial volatility and economic contraction - largely caused by the losses of millions of jobs, closures of thousands of companies and a looming global economic crisis.

To respond to these evolving risks, authorities and the private sector need to take a risk-based approach, as required by the FATF Standards. This means mitigating the money laundering and terrorist financing risks without disrupting essential and legitimate financial services and without driving financial activities towards unregulated service providers.

Supervisors should also clearly communicate about the national risk situations and regulatory expectations. There is no one-size-fits-all approach. However, the FATF’s report on risks and policy responses provides guidance on how jurisdictions should address these issues.

Paris: FATF, 2020. 34;p.

By Naomi Pfitzner · Kate Fitz-Gibbon · Sandra Walklate · Silke Meyer · Marie Segrave

This open access book brings together leading international violence researchers to examine the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on experiences of, and responses to, domestic and family violence. In April 2020 the United Nations predicted that for every three months the COVID-19 lockdowns continued an additional 15 million cases of domestic violence would occur worldwide, termed the "shadow pandemic". Drawing on empirical work situated within an international context, this book presents evidence alongside country specific case studies to provide a global exploration of how women’s insecurity increased during this global health crisis at the same as their access to support services reduced. It provides a timely analysis of the degree to which the pandemic and associated government restrictions impacted on women’s experiences of violence with particular attention to changes in its prevalence and severity, and in system and service responses to women’s help-seeking. In addition, the differential impacts of the pandemic in relation to the experiences of priority cohorts, including violence experienced by children and temporary migrant women is also explored. The key focus is on the nature, extent, and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic on service delivery, accessibility of support, and access to justice for women experiencing domestic and family violence.

Cham, Springer Nature (palgrave Pivot), 2023. 150p.

By Matthew P. J. Ashby

The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial changes in the daily activities of millions of Americans, with many businesses and schools closed, public events cancelled and states introducing stay-at-home orders. This article used police-recorded open crime data to understand how the frequency of common types of crime changed in 16 large cities across the United States in the early months of 2020. Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of crime in previous years were used to forecast the expected frequency of crime in 2020 in the absence of the pandemic. The forecasts from these models were then compared to the actual frequency of crime during the early months of the pandemic. There were no significant changes in the frequency of serious assaults in public or (contrary to the concerns of policy makers) any change to the frequency of serious assaults in residences. In some cities, there were reductions in residential burglary but little change in non-residential burglary. Thefts of motor vehicles decreased in some cities while there were diverging patterns of thefts from motor vehicles. These results are used to make suggestions for future research into the relationships between the coronavirus pandemic and different crimes.

Crime Science 2020 9:6

By Eric Halford, Anthony Dixon, Graham Farrell, Nicolas Malleson and Nick Tilley

Governments around the world restricted movement of people, using social distancing and lockdowns, to help stem the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We examine crime effects for one UK police force area in comparison to 5-year averages. There is variation in the onset of change by crime type, some declining from the WHO ‘global pandemic’ announcement of 11 March, others later. By 1 week after the 23 March lockdown, all recorded crime had declined 41%, with variation: shoplifting (−62%), theft (−52%), domestic abuse (−45%), theft from vehicle (−43%), assault (−36%), burglary dwelling (−25%) and burglary non-dwelling (−25%). We use Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports to calculate the mobility elasticity of crime for four crime types, finding shoplifting and other theft inelastic but responsive to reduced retail sector mobility (MEC=0.84, 0.71 respectively), burglary dwelling elastic to increases in residential area mobility (−1), with assault inelastic but responsive to reduced workplace mobility (0.56). We theorise that crime rate changes were primarily caused by those in mobility, suggesting a mobility theory of crime change in the pandemic. We identify implications for crime theory, policy and future research

Crime Science 2020 9:11

By Manne Gerell, Johan Kardell and Johanna Kindgren

The covid-19 disease has a large impact on life across the globe, and this could potentially include impacts on crime. The present study describes how crime has changed in Sweden during ten weeks after the government started to implement interventions to reduce spread of the disease. Sweden has undertaken smaller interventions than many other countries and is therefore a particularly interesting case to study. The first major interventions in Sweden were implemented in the end of week 11 (March 12th) in the year 2020, and we analyze police reported crimes through week 21 (ending May 24th). Descriptive statistics are provided relative to expected levels with 95% confidence intervals for eight crime types. We found that total crime, assaults, pickpocketing and burglary have decreased significantly, personal robberies and narcotics crime are unchanged. Vandalism possibly increased somewhat but is hard to draw any frm conclusions on. The reductions are fairly small for most crime types, in the 5–20% range, with pickpocketing being the biggest exception noting a 59% drop relative to expected levels.

Crime Science 2020 9:19

By Gian Maria Campedelli, Serena Favarin, Alberto Aziani and Alex R. Piquero

Recent studies exploiting city-level time series have shown that, around the world, several crimes declined after COVID-19 containment policies have been put in place. Using data at the community-level in Chicago, this work aims to advance our understanding on how public interventions affected criminal activities at a finer spatial scale. The analysis relies on a two-step methodology. First, it estimates the community-wise causal impact of social distancing and shelter-in-place policies adopted in Chicago via Structural Bayesian Time-Series across four crime categories (i.e., burglary, assault, narcotics-related offenses, and robbery). Once the models detected the direction, magnitude and significance of the trend changes, Firth’s Logistic Regression is used to investigate the factors associated with the statistically significant crime reduction found in the first step of the analyses. Statistical results first show that changes in crime trends differ across communities and crime types. This suggests that beyond the results of aggregate models lies a complex picture characterized by diverging patterns. Second, regression models provide mixed findings regarding the correlates associated with significant crime reduction: several relations have opposite directions across crimes with population being the only factor that is stably and positively associated with significant crime reduction.

Crime Science 2020 9:21