By The International Crisis Group

What’s new? In 2022, President Xiomara Castro’s left-leaning government took power in Honduras. She promised to craft a community-oriented approach to public safety, reduce the army’s role and fight corruption. Public frustration with rampant crime, however, prodded her to pursue tough emergency measures ahead of reform. Why does it matter? Despite a slight fall in homicides, Honduras remains the second most violent country and the most dangerous for women in Latin America. Widespread violence, economic stagnation and dire humanitarian conditions in parts of the country are fuelling an exodus of Hondurans, mostly to the U.S., Mexico and Spain. What should be done? Rather than allowing law enforcement needs to crowd out reform, the government should address both issues. It should focus on strengthening police, combating impunity and investing in gang-affected communities – and not rely on the present emergency measures. Donors should work with the government where possible, notwithstanding frustration with Castro’s foreign policy.

Latin America Report N°100. Brussels: The Crisis Group, 2023. 35p.

By Beatriz Magaloni, Edgar Franco Vivanco, Vanessa Melo

State interventions against drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) sometimes work to improve security, but often exacerbate violence. To understand why, this paper offers a theory about different social order dynamics among five types of criminal regimes – Insurgent, Bandit, Symbiotic, Predatory, and Anarchic. These differ according to whether criminal groups confront or collude with state actors; predate or cooperate with the community; and hold a monopoly or contest territory with rival DTOs. Police interventions in these criminal orders pose different challenges and are associated with markedly different local security outcomes. Evidence for the theory is provided by the use a multi-method research design combining quasi-experimental statistical analyses, extensive qualitative research and a large N survey in the context of Rio de Janeiro’s “Pacifying Police Units” (UPPs), which sought to reclaim control of the slums from organized criminal groups.

American Political Science Review. 2020. 51p.

By Kin Y. Ma

Over the past two decades, gang-related violence and control has plagued the Northern Triangle: the Central American (NTCA) countries of El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. This gang-related behavior has propelled the countries to exhibit some of the highest homicide rates per capita globally, contributing to state fragility and mass emigration – most notably to the United States and Mexico. Mitigating such gang influence can be taxonomized into two areas: anti-gang activities focusing on recruitment prevention efforts, and counter-gang operations centered around disrupting, dismantling, or denying gang activities via law enforcement efforts. Scholars and subject-matter experts on gang influence both overwhelmingly agree and exhort that reducing gang membership remains a key factor in lessening a gang’s impact in a given area, as well as potentially yielding a more effective outcome than solely relying on the disruption provided by counter-gang operations. In view of this consensus, the scope of this study focuses specifically on gangprevention efforts in the economic, community outreach, and law enforcement sectors over the past two decades, while concurrently examining US-involved programs and their impact from a qualitative perspective. Most prior academic work on the topic consists of an overarching view of the totality of the programs. As such, this study either increases, updates, or combines the research conducted by the US government, academic community, field researchers, as well as the author’s original research conducted in either the NTCA or with officials inside the respective countries. As a result, this study confirms and furthers reasoning for the existing consensus, and moreover, coalesces the wide-ranging research existing in academia, US diplomatic efforts, and Guatemalan government efforts, as well as delving into program specifics existing in academia, US diplomatic efforts, and Guatemalan government efforts, as well as delving into program specifics

Cambridge, MA: Harvard University, 2021. 114p.

By Eileen R. Larence

Thousands of gang members in the United States belong to gangs such as MS-13 and 18th Street that are also active in Central American countries. Federal entities with responsibilities for addressing Central American gangs include the National Security Council (NSC); the Departments of Homeland Security (DHS), Justice (DOJ), and State; and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). GAO was asked to review federal efforts to combat transnational gangs. This report addresses (1) the extent to which the federal government has developed a strategy to combat these gangs, and (2) how federal agencies have implemented the strategy and other programs to combat these gangs, coordinated their actions, and assessed their results. GAO examined federal agencies' antigang plans, resources, and measures; interviewed federal, state, and local officials in seven localities representing varying population sizes and geographic regions; and interviewed U.S. and foreign officials in El Salvador and Guatemala where U.S. agencies have implemented antigang programs. The results of these interviews are not generalizable

Washington DC: United States Government Accountability Office, 2010. 74p.

By Judith Greene and Kevin Pranis

Youth crime in the United States remains near the lowest levels seen in the past three decades, yet public concern and media coverage of gang activity has skyrocketed since 2000. Fear has spread from neighborhoods with longstanding gang problems to communities with historically low levels of crime, and some policy makers have declared the arrival of a national gang “crisis.” Yet many questions remain unanswered. How can communities and policymakers differentiate between perceived threats and actual challenges presented by gangs? Which communities are most affected by gangs, and what is the nature of that impact? How much of the crime that plagues poor urban neighborhoods is attributable to gangs? And what approaches work to promote public safety?

Washington DC: Justice Policy Institute, 2007. 108p.

By Jean-Pierre Guay

In Québec, street gangs are now among the newest threats to public safety (MSPQ, 2007; SPVM, 2005). Major police efforts to dismantle juvenile prostitution networks or reduce drug trafficking have escalated the flow of juvenile offenders into the adult correctional system. Gang members are a growing presence in the penal system and, to a certain degree, risk assessment creates its own problems. The objective of this research is to examine the applicability of the LS/CMI (Andrews, Bonta, & Wormith, 2004) to gang members and to identify specific criminogenic needs profiles compared to non-gang offenders. A sample of 172 offenders serving sentences of more than six months under provincial jurisdiction was used within this framework. Eighty-six offenders, identified by the Ministère de la Sécurité publique du Québec, were paired by age, status and city of residence with 86 offenders not identified as gang members. All were assessed with the LS/CMI. Data on new arrests and new convictions were used afterward to test the predictive validity of the LS/CMI. The results indicate that gang members present more diverse criminal histories and greater prevalence of convictions for violent offences. The LS/CMI data analysis showed that gang members present more significant criminogenic risks and needs, and in a greater number of areas than did the control group subjects. These higher needs translated into higher rates of re-arrest and substantially more convictions for violent crimes. The LS/CMI was also useful in predicting recidivism for gang members. Multivariate analyses with the Cox proportional hazard model suggest that, at equal risk, gang offenders are arrested more frequently for both general crimes and violent crimes. Age and equal risk factors also apply to new convictions for violent crimes; gang members are more likely to face new convictions than are non-members. The implications of these results are discussed.

Ottawa: Public Safety Canada, 2012. 35p.