By Shane D. Johnson

Traditional crime has been falling for some time in most countries. However, developing technologies and our use of them are creating new opportunities for offending. For example, estimates from the Crime Survey of England and Wales indicate that in the UK, online fraud and related offences account for as many crimes as do “traditional” offences. To date, academia, law enforcement and governments have been reactive both in terms of identifying new and emerging forms of offending and in developing approaches to address them. In this paper, I will discuss the future crime agenda, and how futures thinking can help identify future crime opportunities and security threats including online fraud, crimes involving artificial intelligence, and crime in the metaverse. The paper will close with a discussion of the implications for theory and crime prevention.

Security Journal, Volume 37, pages 515–534, (2024)

By Emily A. Greene-Colozzi, Joshua D. Freilich

Situational crime prevention (SCP) is an environmental crime control perspective with enormous practical and policy relevance due to its practitioner-friendly theoretical approach. This study examines whether SCP interventions reduce incident casualty outcomes in active shooter incidents. We used an inductive, open-source data set of 555 active shooter and mass public shooting sites to study the applicability of SCP to active shooter and mass public violence. Our findings suggest a harm mitigation role for SCP: active shooter sites with stronger holistic SCP had fewer casualties. We assessed perpetrator motivation to test displacement, a core critique of SCP, and found that the harm mitigation potential of SCP persists even in the presence of a highly motivated offender.

Policy summary

SCP could be a practical and effective method to decrease casualties in the event of an active shooting, which is a highly motivated crime type that is difficult to predict and prevent. Public locations may select a range of appropriate SCP techniques based on individual resources and needs. The totality and interactions of these techniques may contribute to public safety in general, with diffuse benefits. This policy solution is highly oriented toward practice and real-life application, and may be used to supplement existing preventative measures like threat assessment and gun legislation.

Criminology & Public Policy Volume 23, Issue 4 Nov 2024 Pages 801-1017

By: Auzeen Shariati and Rob T. Guerette

Traditional criminology has focused on the criminal nature of offenders as a means for reducing crime. In contrast, situational crime prevention (SCP) is a process of multiple stages, and seeks to understand where, when, and how crime incidents occur. Similar to epidemiology, SCP has sought to alter environments which host crime behavior in order to make them less suitable for offending. Based on an analysis of the incidence and distribution of a given crime problem, the SCP approach then identifies risk factors, formulates and implements appropriate solutions, and evaluates the results. In this way, the individual “propensity” of offenders, like individual diagnoses, becomes less important, at least as a means of prevention. This chapter discusses in more detail the situational crime prevention approach. Following a brief description of its historical development, the theoretical foundations are presented. An overview of the process and types of prevention techniques are then outlined followed by a discussion on the existing evidence of effectiveness.

December 2017 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-44124-5_22

By: John E. Eck and Tamara D. Madensen

Problem-oriented Policing is a theory of policing, but does not contain a theory of problems. Situational crime prevention is a theory of problems, but does not contain a theory of an implementing institution. The paper shows why without Situational Crime Prevention, problem-oriented policing would have difficulty working. An analogy is drawn to lichens and it is asserted that any useful theory of policing must be like a lichen.

January 2012, DOI: 10.4324/9780203154403

By: Timothy J. Hope

The problem-oriented approach to policing and the situational approach to crime prevention have much in common, both arising from the search for more effective means of crime control. They share a common perspective in being targeted at specific crime problems and locations. This paper describes three case studies of problem-oriented policing carried out by officers of the St Louis (MO) Metropolitan Police Department, each concerned with reducing crime and disorder at locations where drugs were being sold. In each case, the individual officers played a pivotal role as catalysts in stimulating actions by the community and city agencies, and in achieving reductions in crime and disorder at the problem locations. The cases suggest that at the localized level at which it operates, problem-oriented policing can achieve the kind of coordinated action which may not be so easy at a broader level of community and organizational aggregation.

CRIME PREVENTION STUDIES, VOLUME 2, P 5-31, 1994

By: Sameer Hinduja and Brandon Kooi

Information can be considered as an invaluable commodity for all business entities, and has brought about the development of various security architectures devoted to its protection. Corporations have tended to react to the exploitation of information security (InfoSec) vulnerabilities through the implementation of technological measures. Indeed, most security policies and procedures are highly technologically inclined, making use of hardware and software to protect and safeguard the confidentiality, integrity and availability of data. Unfortunately, these tactics have achieved limited success because of inattention to the opportunistic aspects of crime commission. Situational crime prevention can address the importance of these aspects by concentrating on the circumstances associated with a crime, and how the setting, conditions and context can be modified to preclude its manifestation. Its specific application to cyber and InfoSec in a corporate setting is advantageous in developing competent proactive strategies to reduce the presence and attractiveness of criminal possibilities for would-be offenders.

Security Journal advance online publication, 17 June 2013; doi:10.1057/sj.2013.25

By: ROB T. GUERETTE and KATE J. BOWERS

Few criticisms of situational crime-prevention (SCP) efforts are as frequent or prevalent as claims of displacement. Despite emerging evidence to the contrary, the prevailing sentiment seems to be that crime displacement is inevitable. This study examined 102 evaluations of situationally focused crime-prevention projects in an effort to determine the extent to which crime displacement was observed. The results indicate that of the 102 studies that examined (or allowed for examination of) displacement and diffusion effects, there were 574 observations. Displacement was observed in 26 percent of those observations. The opposite of displacement, diffusion of benefit, was observed in 27 percent of the observations. Moreover, the analysis of 13 studies, which allowed for assessment of overall outcomes of the prevention project while taking into account spatial displacement and diffusion effects, revealed that when spatial displacement did occur, it tended to be less than the treatment effect, suggesting that the intervention was still beneficial. Implications for theory and future research are discussed.

CRIMINOLOGY VOLUME 47 NUMBER 4 2009

By: M. Lyn Exum, Joseph B. Kuhns, Brad Koch, and Chuck Johnson

Although the efficacy of situational crime prevention (SCP) strategies on convenience store safety has received considerable attention, the security of fast-food restaurants has been virtually ignored. This study was based on a population of convenience stores (n = 295) and fast-food restaurants (n = 321) in Charlotte, North Carolina. The study examined whether the crime control strategies commonly recommended to the convenience store industry were effective at reducing robbery in the fast-food industry. Relatedly, the study examined whether target-hardening strategies have similar effects on robbery prevalence rates across the two types of businesses. In general, the article found that many target-hardening strategies derived from the literature failed to impact robbery rates for either type of establishment. For those factors that did emerge as statistically significant predictors of robbery, the preventative effects generally appeared in one type of establishment or the other, but not in both. These findings suggest that effective SCP strategies are truly situation-specific and not “one size fits all.”

Criminal Justice Policy Review 2010 21: 269, 11 November 2009 DOI: 10.1177/0887403409346110

By Nicolette Reyhani

From the Introduction:” Over recent years situational crime has gained considerable amount of support and recognition when determining what in society causes crime. Prior to the 1970s, the explanations for causes of crime revolved around the socio-economic effects society endured. The modern focus of criminological policy and theories began to change as attention turned to the potential environmental factors and effects they have on criminal activity (McGloin & O’Neil, 2007). The situational crime results from an offender, who under certain circumstances, commits a crime and is unlikely to repeat the offence or usually is not inclined to commit crimes, hence the emphasis on situational (Clarke, 1995). These crimes and offenders are best explained through theories that do not focus on the social causes of crime, rather the emerging prosperity of contemporary life and the rational human being.”

by Rana Sampson

Abstract: In the early 1990s, American policing, applying a problemoriented approach, displayed much creative energy in closing drug markets. This has not translated to a under range of quality efforts in tackling other common crimes, such as burglary, auto theft, and shoplifting. While few of the factors that combined to fuel wide exploration of creative solutions in drug markets are present for other crime and safety problems, there may be some simple ways to engage the police to further study and target other crimes. Three strategies are offered: identifying, understanding, and responding to snowball crimes; using a situational crime prevention approach to graded responses for repeat victimization; and examining privately-owned properties for disproportionate demands on police service with an eye towards shifting responsibility for crime-place management to these owners.

Crime Prevention Studies, vol. 15 (2003), pp. 239-256..

By Adrian Leigh, Tim Read and Nick Tilley

Much police work is incident-driven and officers frequently find themselves returning to deal with similar or related incidents they or their colleagues have faced in the past. The concept of Problem-Oriented Policing (POP) is about examining patterns of incident clusters to identify and tackle underlying problems within the community. The active involvement of the community and external agencies is often vital to the identification of problems and the development of strategies to solve them. The originator of the concept, Herman Goldstein, believes that the whole of the police service needs to be oriented to problems. The perceived benefits of POP include:

• a better-served public whose concerns are attended to at source;

• officers with enhanced job satisfaction from bringing the public real benefits; and,

• more manageable demands on the police because underlying problems are solved, reducing repeat calls.

Since POP was first proposed in 1979, it has been widely adopted in the United States. There have also been a number of efforts to implement it in England and Wales. Despite overlooking some elements of POP proposed by Goldstein, past initiatives have been labelled Problem-Oriented Policing because they have taken on board his most important tenet: that officers should tackle the root cause of related incidents, rather than repeatedly returning to them. Whilst forces have adopted a variety of approaches, most initiatives have been relatively small-scale and have affected only a small number of dedicated officers. All have recorded mixed success, although none has established a formal means by which to assess outcomes. In particular, none of the past POP initiatives in England and Wales has adopted a formal and systematic model linking incident identification and analysis with the construction of responses and subsequent assessment of the actions taken. At the time of writing, both Surrey and Thames Valley were intending to introduce POP on a much wider scale and in a form closer to that originally proposed by Goldstein.

London Home Office. Crime Detection and Prevention Series Paper 75. 1996. 72p.

By Colin Rogers

The Problem-Oriented Policing (or Partnership) approach is one that is used to underpin the current neighbourhood policing team approach in England and Wales. It relies upon a scientific approach which identifies problems and provides ethical and appropriate responses using the concepts of the Problem Analysis Triangle (PAT) and the SARA model. However, this approach has been in vogue since the mid and late 1990s and this article compares data from a current police service with that published in 1998. Comparison is made between this information to provide an indication of just how far the police have progressed in their use, application and understanding of the Problem-Oriented Partnership approach.

The Police Journal/2010, Volume 83/Issue 4. 6p.

David Weisburd

Problem-oriented policing has garnered a great deal of attention since it was first proposed by Herman Goldstein in 1979. The core of the model is a shift from police operating in a reactive, incident driven way (primarily responding to calls for service) to a model that requires the police to be proactive in identifying underlying problems that can be targeted to alleviate crime and disorder at their roots. Problem-oriented policing can be thought of as a process rather than a specific intervention. As such, problem-oriented policing can work independently or simultaneously with other modern policing innovations (hot spots policing, focused deterrence etc…) to address problems of crime and disorder. While the ability of problem-oriented policing to target an array of different issues makes it widely applicable, the plethora of different interventions that may qualify as problem-oriented policing make generalizing research on its effect difficult. The current study will provide an updated systematic review of the effectiveness of problem-oriented policing in reducing crime and disorder. An earlier Campbell review by three of the same authors covered studies published through 2006 (Weisburd, Telep, Hinkle & Eck, 2008; 2010); this updated review will add studies published from 2006 to 2018.

The Campbell Collaboration. 2019. 42p.

Gary Cordner, Elizabeth Biebel

Problem-oriented policing was first introduced in an article by Herman Goldstein in 1979. It was formally field-tested in the 1980s in Baltimore County (Cordner, 1986) and Newport News (Eck and Spelman, 1987), given a wider audience through an Atlantic Monthly magazine article in 1989 (Wilson and Kelling), and systematically described and explained in Goldstein's 1990 book. Today, it is widely regarded as the most analytical and intellectually challenging strategy in the police arsenal.

Questions linger, however, about the implementation and practicality of problemoriented policing (POP). The SARA process (scanning, analysis, response, assessment) for carrying out POP is analytically and creatively demanding, as well as time-consuming. Some observers question whether police have the knowledge and skill to implement the SARA process properly. Police officers often question whether they have the time to do so.

The research reported here carefully examined problem-oriented policing in practice by ordinary police officers in one agency - the San Diego, California Police Department. The objective was to discover and describe the reality of everyday, streetlevel POP as practiced by generalist patrol officers. San Diego was chosen because of its reputation as a national leader in problem-oriented policing.

U.S. Department of Justice.. 2003. 28p.

By Gloria Laycock

This guide is about embedding POP in your organisation. It is written primarily for senior officers and managers and is intended to complement a sister guide on problem-solving in practice. This guide is not a step-by-step manual - there is no single road to or recipe for implementing POP. Instead, what follows is a review of what is known about implementing and sustaining POP, with recommended resources provided at the end. The guide has three parts. The first part outlines the core features of POP. The second part makes the business case for POP as an operating model for contemporary policing. The third part discusses three conditions conducive to the successful implementation of POP – leadership, understanding and infrastructure – and provides examples of good and poor practice. The guide ends with a self-assessment tool to help you determine your organisation’s readiness for and progress in implementing POP.

London. College of Policing. 2020. 26p.

Michael S. Scott.

Abstract: Police agencies have, for the most part, not yet integrated the principles and methods of problem-oriented policing into their routine operations. This is so for several reasons. First, many police officials lack a complete understanding of the basic elements of problemoriented policing and how problem solving fits in the context of the whole police function. Second, the police have not yet adequately developed the skill sets and knowledge bases to support problemoriented policing. And third, the police have insufficient incentives to take problem-oriented policing seriously. This paper begins by articulating what full integration of problem-oriented policing into routine police operations might look like. It then presents one framework for integrating the principles and methods of problem-oriented policing into the whole police function. The paper then explores the particular skill sets and knowledge bases that will be essential to the practice of problem-oriented policing within police agencies and across the police profession. Finally, it explores the perspectives of those who critically evaluate police performance, and considers ways to modify those perspectives and expectations consistent with problem-oriented policing.

Crime Prevention Studies. Vol. 15. 2003. pp. 48-97

Michael S. Scott

In the last three decades, several concepts have been advanced to structure efforts to improve policing. Among them have been team policing, neighborhood policing, community policing, problem-oriented policing, and, most recently, quality-of-life policing. With much overlap, each concept, as reflected in its name, emphasizes a different need, relegating other commonly advocated reforms to a secondary role, shaped to support that need. This volume traces the efforts to implement problem-oriented policing.

The emphasis in problem-oriented policing is on directing attention to the broad range of problems the community expects the police to handle–the problems that constitute the business of the police–and on how police can be more effective in dealing with them. A layperson may think this focus elementary on first being introduced to it. Indeed, laypeople probably assume that police continually focus on the problems they are expected to handle. But within policing, this focus constitutes a radical shift in perspective.

Problem-oriented policing recognizes, at the outset, that police are expected to deal with an incredibly broad range of diverse community problems–not simply crime. It recognizes that the ultimate goal of the police is not simply to enforce the law, but to deal with problems effectively–ideally, by preventing them from occurring in the first place. It therefore plunges the police into an in-depth study of the specific problems they confront. It invites consideration of a wide range of alternatives, in addition to criminal law, for responding to each specific problem. Thus, problem-oriented policing draws the police away from the traditional preoccupation with creating an efficient organization; from the heavy investment in standard, generic operating procedures for responding to calls and preventing crime; and from heavy dependence on criminal law as the primary means for getting their job done. It looks to increased knowledge and thinking about the specific problems police confront as the driving force in fashioning police services.

This publication was supported through Grant #98CKWXK052 from the Office of Community-Oriented Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice. The opinions expressed herein are the author's and do not necessarily represent the official position of the U.S. Department of Justice. October 2000. 46p.

Aiden Sidebottom (University College London) Karen Bullock (Surrey University) Rachel Armitage (University of Huddersfield) Matt Ashby (University College London) Caitlin Clemmow (University College London) Stuart Kirby (Crime Insights Limited) Gloria Laycock (University College London) Nick Tilley (University College London).

‘Problem-oriented policing’ (POP) is an approach for improving police effectiveness. In the United Kingdom (UK), it is also referred to as ‘problem-oriented partnerships’ or ‘problem-solving policing’. Problem-solving policing calls for the police to focus not on individual incidents but on problems - defined as recurrent clusters of related incidents that affect the community. It advocates a structured process whereby the police (1) systematically identify persistent problems, (2) undertake in-depth analysis to determine the conditions giving rise to these problems, (3) devise and implement tailored responses and (4) work out if the chosen responses were effective. At its simplest, POP outlines a method for dealing with localised problems. In its most general sense, it outlines an approach for how the police operate.

Problem-solving has been widely adopted by police forces in the UK and internationally. Successive reviews, case studies and experiments have shown POP to be an effective way of reducing crime and disorder. Yet despite extensive evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of problem-solving, research also identifies recurrent challenges both in the implementation and practice of a problem-oriented approach. Consequently, POP has not become a persistent feature of policing in the UK.

College of Policing. NPCC. 2019. 89p.

By Nick Tilley

Herman฀Goldstein’s฀(1979,฀1990)฀vision฀of฀problem-oriented฀policing฀(POP)฀has฀not฀ been฀difficult฀to฀sell,฀at฀least฀in฀principle,฀and฀in฀the฀30฀years฀since฀he฀first฀mooted฀ it฀many฀scholars฀and฀police฀agencies฀have฀bought฀into฀it.฀POP฀promises฀a฀move฀ away฀from฀managerial฀priorities,฀standardized฀(and฀often฀ineffective)฀ways฀of฀working,฀and฀law฀ enforcement฀as฀an฀end฀in฀itself.฀It฀focuses฀instead฀on฀relevant฀community฀concerns,฀the฀openminded฀pursuit฀of฀ethical฀and฀effective฀solutions฀to฀recurrent฀problems,฀and฀attention฀to฀results฀ to฀learn฀better฀how฀to฀deal฀with฀similar฀problems฀in฀the฀future.฀It฀also฀suggests฀an฀efficient฀and฀ effective฀way฀of฀handling฀heavy฀demands฀on฀police฀time,฀by฀resolving฀problems฀rather฀than฀ simply฀by฀responding฀to฀them฀incident฀by฀incident.฀

American฀Society฀of฀Criminology. Criminology฀&฀Public฀Policy฀•฀Volume฀9฀•฀Issue฀1. 13p.

By Caitlin McCulloch, Brian A. Jackson, Sameer M. Siddiqi, Jordan R. Reimer, Emily Allendorf

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has changed and expanded its efforts in violence prevention in the past five years. DHS asked the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center (HSOAC) to examine the change in efforts by the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships (CP3) and its predecessor organizations in preventing terrorism and other violence and explore options for CP3 moving forward.

In the United States, the full potential value of countering violent extremism (CVE) has never been realized because of key disconnects between the intent of CVE programs and the realities of their implementation. Although it might not have been the intent, efforts singled out and stigmatized American Muslim communities. The disconnect between stated intention and reality stimulated potent opposition to CVE as a concept. In response, the federal government decided to make significant changes in its approaches in this policy area. In late 2021, DHS asked HSOAC to examine and characterize the changes that had been made, providing an outside viewpoint on the extent of change and how those changes had responded to the concerns about CVE efforts. This report documents the researchers' approach, findings, and recommendations.

Key Findings

• There has been enormous growth in CP3, and it is currently working on developing and standardizing the institutions and processes that are required to support a larger organization. These efforts include extensive standardization efforts in training and evaluation of CP3's work. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) posed some problems, including making it difficult to create a cohesive whole with new personnel, but also presented some new opportunities, such as an increased ability to reach a diversity of stakeholders digitally.

• CP3 and the government more broadly have made major shifts in the rhetorical framing of their work, toward a public health–informed approach, a framing that aligns more closely with the intent of their programs. Although there is still discussion of the implications of a public health–informed approach, this shift was reflected in both interviews and official documentation.

• In line with this rhetorical shift is the expansion in the diversity of stakeholders, both in engagement and in grantees, including evidence of a shift away from criminal justice and security partners, although they remain important collaborators.

• External stakeholders remain skeptical, but there are some signs of increasing trust in relevant actors outside government.

Recommendations

• Continue efforts to build and sustain consistency in messages and activities. Many external stakeholders noted the importance of rebuilding trust and that sustainable and continuous actions and relationships were essential for fostering that trust.

• Continue to codify and standardize internal office procedures—with rapid growth comes a renewed need for new internal institutions to keep all personnel on the same page.

• More clearly define the elements of a public health–informed approach and how they will be applied to violence prevention for CP3 programs and outreach. There are many definitions present in practitioner circles and the academic literature; choosing one and fully exploring the implications of the definition will be key for aligning stated CP3 goals with programmatic action.

• Invest further in program evaluation. The research team recognizes that it is difficult to evaluate effectiveness in this area, but, without standardized evaluation, supporting the impact of CP3 programs will be difficult.

• Commit to transparency and external communication. Transparency in actions taken and evidence collected, as well as communication with skeptical audiences, will be key in showing change and growth in CP3 and its activities to external actors and in further building trust with external audiences.