By Erin Hammers Forstag, Rapporteur; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Predictive policing strategies are approaches that use data to attempt to predict either individuals who are likely to commit crime or places where crime is likely to be committed, to enable crime prevention. To explore law enforcement's use of person-based and place-based predictive policing strategies, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a two-day public workshop on June 24 and 25, 2024.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2024. 14 pages

By National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; Erin Hammers Forstag, Rapporteur

On June 24 and 25, 2024, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a two-day public workshop exploring law enforcement’s use of person-based and place-based predictive policing strategies. Predictive policing strategies are approaches that use data to attempt to predict either individuals who are likely to commit crime or places where crime is likely to be committed, to enable crime prevention. The workshop was held in response to Executive Order 14074,1 which discusses enhancing public trust and safety through accountable policing and criminal justice practices, and Executive Order 14110,2 which addresses the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in law enforcement. David Weisburd (George Mason University and Chair of the workshop planning committee) began by noting that these executive orders reflected strong public concerns surrounding the idea of predictive policing, as well as critiques of specific implementations—in particular for these strategies’ disparate impact on communities of color. While planning the workshop, Weisburd said that the planning committee confronted several challenging issues. First, there is a lack of precise and clear definitions of what exactly constitutes predictive policing. Second, the term “predictive policing” is often avoided, even when approaches appear to meet conventional definitions. Predictive technologies include “automated,” “dynamic,” or “data-driven,” approaches. However, predictive policing is generally seen as involving predictive algorithms that identify individuals and locations that are more likely to be associated with crime in the future. Whatever the definition, law enforcement agencies routinely use tools that collect and analyze data to anticipate crime and facilitate police response. Weisburd highlighted that the method and extent to which police should rely on algorithmic approaches remain as real-world challenges for law enforcement officials.

This workshop, said Weisburd, comes at a time when original applications of predictive policing have come and gone, while algorithmic and big data technologies advance and continue to be applied in law enforcement contexts. “We may be on the precipice of a new era of predictive policing,” he said, “with the time and wisdom to consider what that could and should look like.”

Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2024. 13p.

By Lawrence W. Sherman

Police are often criticized fordoing “too much” or “too little” policing in various sit-uations. These criticisms amount to testable hypothe-ses about whether “less” force, or intensity, or enforce-ment would have been enough, or whether “more” was needed. The rise of evidence-based policing provides a starting point for public dialogues about those hypotheses, in ways that could help to build police legitimacy.Such dialogues can be focused on the questions posed by the three “Ts”: (1) Is police actiontargetedin a way that is proportionate to the harm that it can prevent?(2) Has the action been tested and found effective with the kinds of targets, and their levels of harm, where it is being used? (3) Is police actiontrack to ensure it is delivered in the way that has been tested, and in compli-ance with relevant legal requirements? In this lecture, I frame the issue as follows:Can more widespread use of better research evidence on targeting, testing, and tracking police actions, shared more clearly among the public and police, help reduce the wide range of oscillation between over-policing and under-policing?PolicyImplications:Theuseofthesequestionsinpub-lic dialogue would be especially relevant to the three biggest threats to police legitimacy in the aftermath ofGeorge Floyd’s murder: (A) police killing people, (B)police stopping people, and (C) police under-patrolling 176SHERMANhigh-crime hot spots (while over-patrolling low-crime areas). One result of applying the three-Ts questions to these threats, for example, could be the end of the vast overuse of stop and search in low-violence areas. At The same time, this approach could also lead to reduc-tions in homicide by increasing stops in highest vio-lence hot spots. Such changes could demonstrate how the “Goldilocks principle” for the three Ts could get policing closer to “just right” for each place and person being policed.

 Criminology & Public Policy.2022;21:175–196

By Daniel Birks, Michael Townsley and Timothy Hart  

Studies in the United States and Europe have demonstrated that burglary and vehicle crime exhibit consistent patterns, supporting the application of crime prediction techniques to proactively deploy police resources to reduce incidents of crime. Research into whether these techniques are applicable in an Australian context is currently limited. Using crime data from the Queensland Police Service, this study assessed the presence of spatio-temporal patterns in burglary, theft of motor vehicle and theft from motor vehicle offences in three distinct local government areas. After establishing the presence of spatiotemporal clustering, the forecasting performance of two predictive algorithms and a retrospective crime mapping technique was evaluated. Forecasting performance varied across study regions; however, the prediction algorithms performed as well as or better than the retrospective method, while using less data. The next step in evaluating predictive policing within Australia is to consider and design effective tactical responses to prevent crime based on the forecast locations and identified patterns.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice, 666. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2023. 22p.

By Serguei Cheloukhine

This Brief provides an in-depth look at crime and corruption in Russian Law Enforcement, in the fifteen years since the 2009 police reforms. It focuses on corruption and organized crime at various levels of public services and law enforcement, how these organized crime networks operate, and how to enhance police integrity and legitimacy in this context.

It begins with a short overview of the history of law enforcement in the Soviet and Post-Soviet context, and the scope of organized crime on the operations of local businesses, public services, and bureaucratic offices. It provides an in depth examination of how organized crime developed in this context, to fill a void between the supply and demand of various goods and services. Based on an in-depth survey of police integrity and corruption in Russia, it provides key insights into how countries in a transition to democracy can maintain and enhance legitimacy of their police force.

Cham: Springer, 2017. 84p.

By Steve Herbert

Policing Space is a fascinating firsthand account of how the Los Angeles Police Department attempts to control its vast, heterogeneous territory. As such, the book offers a rare, ground-level look at the relationship between the control of space and the exercise of power. Author Steve Herbert spent eight months observing one patrol division of the LAPD on the job. A compelling story in itself, his fieldwork with the officers in the Wilshire Division affords readers a close view of the complex factors at play in how the police define and control territory, how they make and mark space.

Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press, 1997. 208p.

By Priscillia Hunt, Jessica Saunders and John S. Hollywood

Even though there is a growing interest in predictive policing, to date there have been few, if any, formal evaluations of these programs. This report documents an assessment of a predictive policing effort in Shreveport, Louisiana, in 2012, which was conducted to evaluate the crime reduction effects of policing guided by statistical predictions. RAND researchers led multiple interviews and focus groups with the Shreveport Police Department throughout the course of the trial to document the implementation of the statistical predictive and prevention models. In addition to a basic assessment of the process, the report shows the crime impacts and costs directly attributable to the strategy. It is hoped that this will provide a fuller picture for police departments considering if and how a predictive policing strategy should be adopted.

There was no statistically significant change in property crime in the experimental districts that applied the predictive models compared with the control districts; therefore, overall, the intervention was deemed to have no effect. There are both statistical and substantive possibilities to explain this null effect. In addition, it is likely that the predictive policing program did not cost any more than the status quo.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2014. 88p.

By Aaron Chalfin, David Mitre-Becerril and Morgan C. Williams, Jr.

In December 2014 and January 2015, police officers in New York City engaged in an organized slowdown of police work to protest the murder of two police officers who were targeted by a gunman while sitting in their patrol car. An influential 2017 article in Nature Human Behaviour studies the effect of the NYPD’s work slowdown on major crimes and concludes that the slowdown led to a significant improvement in public safety. Contrary to the remainder of the literature, the authors conclude that proactive policing can cause an increase in crime. We re-evaluate this claim and point out several fatal weaknesses in the authors’ analysis that call this finding into question. In particular, we note that there was considerable variation in the intensity of the slowdown across NYC communities and that the communities which experienced a more pronounced reduction in police proactivity did not experience the largest reductions in major crime. The authors’ analysis constitutes a quintessential example of an ecological fallacy in statistical reasoning, a logical miscalculation in which inferences from aggregated data are mistakenly applied to a more granular phenomenon. We raise several additional and equally compelling concerns regarding the tests presented in the paper and conclude that there is little evidence that the slowdown led to short-term changes in major crimes in either direction.

Department of Criminology, University of Pennsylvania. Department of Economics, Barnard College, Columbia University , 2021. 38p.

By Jeremy Schoenfelder

This research investigated the theft of copper, including scope, impacts, and countermeasures. The researchers completed a literature review to demonstrate a global perspective of the problem. They took a survey of other state departments of transportation, utility companies, and developers to determine both successful and unsuccessful techniques being used to deter copper theft and the impact copper theft had on other geographical regions and other industries. Additionally, the researchers conducted a site survey to gain knowledge of the specific issues impacting the Arizona Department of Transportation and what mitigation techniques it was implementing. During the time of the research it was found: 1. The Arizona Department of Transportation estimates that costs over the last two years have exceeded $500,000. 2. The Arizona Department of Transportation has been diligent in implementing and adapting various methods and/or techniques to prevent copper theft and apprehend culprits. Suggested mitigation techniques include: 1. Implement a collaborative effort among ADOT, the

contracted private investigation firm, and outside consultant(s) to review and amend efforts on a periodic basis to maximize effectiveness through a thinktank type of approach. 2. Implement a program that would monitor ongoing development of methods used by other organizations. 3. Make particular use of the Copper Keeper, a device that makes it difficult to pull wire through conduit by locking the wire in place through the tightening of a compression bolt.

Rockville, MD: MITC (Mid-Atlantic Innovative Technology Center), 2009. 51p.

By International Union of Railways

Metal theft is a big problem for railway networks as thieves target signalling cables, overhead power lines and even metal fences to sell it for scrap. Railway networks are designed to fail safe, which means that when a cable is cut, trains are brought to a stop. This protects passengers but can lead to long and frustrating delays while the problem is examined and fixed safely. This type of crime causes considerable disruptions and the costs that are associated with replacing and repairing the damage often massively exceed the value of the metal stolen. Loss of communication networks and damage to railway tracks also raise public safety concerns. A large proportion of railway networks funds come from the government, so these thefts are, ultimately, at the taxpayer’s expense. It is clear that the stolen metal is often transported across several borders and sold as scrap or for recycling far away from the actual scene of the crime. Thus, both national and international cooperation and collaboration initiatives are needed to raise awareness, provide expertise and best practice to allow the exchange of ideas between all parties involved. Therefore, only a structured and common approach can provide a wide and extended set of solutions.

Paris: International Union of Railways, 2013. 12p.

By U.S. Department of Energy. Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) monitors changes, threats, and risks to the energy infrastructure in the United States. As part of that responsibility, OE published research in 2007 on the theft of copper wire from electric utilities. Early in 2010 there was evidence of an increase in such thefts. Because of this increase, OE decided to update its 2007 assessment of copper wire thefts. 1 • Electric utilities have launched public awareness campaigns, offered rewards for information leading to the arrest and conviction of thieves, marked copper wire for easier recovery from scrap metal dealers, and collaborated with stakeholders. Copper wire theft continues today throughout the United States, but the magnitude of theft has been reduced considerably. The problem is not likely to cease as long as copper prices remain sufficiently attractive to would-be thieves. However, the combined efforts of electric utilities, lawmakers, scrap metal dealers, and local law enforcement have succeeded in reducing the problem and driving a wedge between copper price increases and comparable increases in copper theft. • Legislation to reduce copper theft has been introduced in every State and passed into law in all but five States as of August 2010. • Scrap metal dealers are cooperating with utilities and lawmakers, reporting suspected thefts, and disseminating information through ISRI’s Theft Alerts. • Local law enforcement has become more responsive to electric utilities facing copper theft and is collaborating to recover more stolen copper and arrest those responsible. Since the beginning of the 2004 spike in copper prices, copper theft and copper prices have been directly linked. Although this link continues today, the rate of thefts as a function of the upward pull of prices has been mitigated

Washington DC: The Department, 2010. 17p.

By Daniel Mejía, Ervyn Norza, Santiago Tobón, and Martín Vanegas-Arias

We study the effects of broken windows policing on crime using geo-located crime and arrest reports for 80 Colombian cities. Broadly defined, broken windows policing consists of intensifying arrests -sometimes for minor offenses- to deter potential criminals. To estimate causal effects, we build grids of 200 × 200 meters over the urban perimeter of all cities and produce event studies to look at the effects of shocks in police activity in the periods to follow. We use spikes in the number of arrests with no warrant -which are more likely associated with unplanned police presence- as a proxy for shocks in broken windows policing. As expected, we observe an increase in crimes during the shock period, as each arrest implies at least one crime report. In the following periods, crimes decrease both in the place of the arrests and the surroundings. With many treated grids and many places exposed to spillovers, these effects add up. On aggregate, the crime reduction offsets the observed increase during the shock period. Direct effects are more immediate and precise at low crime grids, but beneficial spillovers seem more relevant at crime hot spots. The effects of broken windows policing circumscribe to cities with low or moderate organized crime, consistent with criminal organizations planning their activities more systematically than disorganized criminals.

Bogotá, Colombia: Universidad de los Andes–Facultad de Economía–CEDE, 2022. 34p.

By Mateo Dulce Rubio

I use residential burglary data from Bogota, Colombia, to fit an agent-based model following truncated L´evy flights (Pan et al., 2018) elucidating criminal rational behavior and validating repeat/near-repeat victimization and broken windows effects. The estimated parameters suggest that if an average house or its neighbors have never been attacked, and it is suddenly burglarized, the probability of a new attack the next day increases, due to the crime event, in 79 percentage points. Moreover, the following day its neighbors will also face an increment in the probability of crime of 79 percentage points. This effect persists for a long time span. The model presents an area under the Cumulative Accuracy Profile (CAP) curve, of 0.8 performing similarly or better than state-of-the-art crime prediction models. Public policies seeking to reduce criminal activity and its negative consequences must take into account these mechanisms and the self-exciting nature of crime to effectively make criminal hotspots safer.

Bogotá, Colombia: Universidad de los Andes–Facultad de Economía–CEDE, 2019. 29p.

By Jean-Pierre Guay

In Québec, street gangs are now among the newest threats to public safety (MSPQ, 2007; SPVM, 2005). Major police efforts to dismantle juvenile prostitution networks or reduce drug trafficking have escalated the flow of juvenile offenders into the adult correctional system. Gang members are a growing presence in the penal system and, to a certain degree, risk assessment creates its own problems. The objective of this research is to examine the applicability of the LS/CMI (Andrews, Bonta, & Wormith, 2004) to gang members and to identify specific criminogenic needs profiles compared to non-gang offenders. A sample of 172 offenders serving sentences of more than six months under provincial jurisdiction was used within this framework. Eighty-six offenders, identified by the Ministère de la Sécurité publique du Québec, were paired by age, status and city of residence with 86 offenders not identified as gang members. All were assessed with the LS/CMI. Data on new arrests and new convictions were used afterward to test the predictive validity of the LS/CMI. The results indicate that gang members present more diverse criminal histories and greater prevalence of convictions for violent offences. The LS/CMI data analysis showed that gang members present more significant criminogenic risks and needs, and in a greater number of areas than did the control group subjects. These higher needs translated into higher rates of re-arrest and substantially more convictions for violent crimes. The LS/CMI was also useful in predicting recidivism for gang members. Multivariate analyses with the Cox proportional hazard model suggest that, at equal risk, gang offenders are arrested more frequently for both general crimes and violent crimes. Age and equal risk factors also apply to new convictions for violent crimes; gang members are more likely to face new convictions than are non-members. The implications of these results are discussed.

Ottawa: Public Safety Canada, 2012. 35p.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

Proactive policing, as a strategic approach used by police agencies to prevent crime, is a relatively new phenomenon in the United States. It developed from a crisis in confidence in policing that began to emerge in the 1960s because of social unrest, rising crime rates, and growing skepticism regarding the effectiveness of standard approaches to policing. In response, beginning in the 1980s and 1990s, innovative police practices and policies that took a more proactive approach began to develop. This report uses the term “proactive policing” to refer to all policing strategies that have as one of their goals the prevention or reduction of crime and disorder and that are not reactive in terms of focusing primarily on uncovering ongoing crime or on investigating or responding to crimes once they have occurred.

Proactive policing is distinguished from the everyday decisions of police officers to be proactive in specific situations and instead refers to a strategic decision by police agencies to use proactive police responses in a programmatic way to reduce crime. Today, proactive policing strategies are used widely in the United States. They are not isolated programs used by a select group of agencies but rather a set of ideas that have spread across the landscape of policing.

Proactive Policing reviews the evidence and discusses the data and methodological gaps on: (1) the effects of different forms of proactive policing on crime; (2) whether they are applied in a discriminatory manner; (3) whether they are being used in a legal fashion; and (4) community reaction. This report offers a comprehensive evaluation of proactive policing that includes not only its crime prevention impacts but also its broader implications for justice and U.S. communities.

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2018. 408p. .