By Sara B. Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh & Max Kapustin   

  This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. Out-of-sample accuracy is strikingly high: of the 500 people with the highest predicted risk, almost 13 percent are shot within 18 months, a rate 128 times higher than the average Chicagoan. A central concern is that algorithms may “bake in” bias found in police data, overestimating risk for people likelier to interact with police conditional on their behavior. We show that Black male victims more often have enough police contact to generate predictions. But those predictions are not, on average, inflated; the demographic composition of predicted and actual shooting victims is almost identical. There are legal, ethical, and practical barriers to using these predictions to target law enforcement. But using them to target social services could have enormous preventive benefits: predictive accuracy among the top 500 people justifies spending up to $134,400 per person for an intervention that could cut the probability of being shot by half. 

Unpublished Paper, 2023. 64p.

By U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC)

When incidents of school violence occur, they leave a profound and lasting impact on the school, the community, and our nation as a whole. Ensuring safe environments for elementary and secondary school students, educators, administrators, and others is essential. This operational guide was developed to provide fundamental direction on how to prevent incidents of targeted school violence, that is, when a student specifically selects a school or a member of the school community for harm. The content in this guide is based on information developed by the U.S. Secret Service, Protective Intelligence and Assessment Division, National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC).

Washington, DC: U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC), 2018. 32p.

By Peter Langman and Frank Traub

The Police Foundation, in collaboration with the COPS Office, implemented the Averted School Violence (ASV) database to provide a platform for sharing information about averted incidents of violence in institutions of elementary, secondary, and higher education. As a companion to the preliminary report on the ASV database (Daniels 2018), this report compares 51 completed with 51 averted incidents of school violence from the ASV database and analyzes both sets. It includes findings on the demographics of individuals who plan attacks, victims' demographics in completed attacks, and community characteristics; it also provides important recommendations to minimize school violence and improve student and school safety.

Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, 2019. 42p.

By Bryan Vossekuil; Robert A. Fein; Marisa Reddy; Randy Borum; and William Modzeleski

This publication results from ongoing collaboration between the U.S. Secret Service and the U.S. Department of Education. Its goals are to determine whether it could have been known that incidents of targeted violence at schools were being planned and whether anything could have been done to prevent them from occurring. Results from the Secret Service's Exceptional Case Study Project (ECSP) are used to organize planning. This report describes the Safe School Initiative, defines "targeted" school violence, and discusses the prevalence of school violence in American schools. The methodology of this study, sources of information, and an analysis of survey responses are also discussed. Incidents of targeted school violence are characterized, including characteristics of the attacker, conceptualization of the attack, and signaling, advancing, and resolving the attack. Implications of study findings and the use of threat assessment as a strategy to prevent school violence are presented.

Washington, DC: United States Secret Service and United States Department of Education, 2004. 54p.

By Joseph M. McKenna and Anthony Petrosino

In 2019, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) was directed to provide Congress with a report on the state of school policing in the United States that examined the current role of police in schools and provided recommendations on how they can better serve the needs of students. To address this directive, NIJ engaged two consultants to conduct a comprehensive literature review and examination of data sources, facilitate four days of expert panel discussions, and synthesize the results from these data collection efforts. This report is the result of those efforts. The report focuses exclusively on the United States and on sworn officers and does not consider the use of school police in nations outside the United States or on the employment of private security, retired military, or other types of non-sworn police in schools. Much of the writing of this report occurred in 2020 amid the civil unrest stemming from the murder of George Floyd and the police killings of other people of color. It also was written during the COVID-19 pandemic, which undoubtedly will also have impacts on school policing. This report focuses on what we currently knew at the time of its writing.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice Office of Justice Programs National Institute of Justice, 2022. 105p.