By Shiying Zhang, Ao Huang

There have been numerous debates regarding the educational practice of grade retention and social promotion. This study analyzes the effect of an exogenous policy reform in China that abolishes grade retention during the compulsory education period. We exploit the staggered introduction of the reform across provinces and estimate a flexible difference-in-differences model that can capture the effect of exposure to the reform in different grades. The results indicate that abolishing grade retention significantly decreases the probability of junior high school completion, and most of these negative impacts are concentrated among students exposed to the reform in early grades. Moreover, rural children and boys are more likely to be negatively affected by the reform. Finally, we find that the reform increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior in early adulthood.

Unpublished paper, 2024.

By Asian Racing Federation

This report examines Mainland China’s crackdown on illegal betting from 2018 to mid-2021, its background, purpose and impact. It is based on official announcements and statistics, 315 Mainland Chinese media articles related to illegal betting, and English-language reports. The report details:

·         Why China is so concerned about illegal betting

·         Insights into the scale of the problem

·         The crackdown’s impact on wider illegal betting in Asia

·         Notable shared characteristics of illegal betting operations

·         Why China’s crackdown is relevant to other jurisdictions

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2021. 14p.

By Alexander Kupatadze and Lakshmi Kumar

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), sometimes referred to as ‘Globalisation 2.0,’ is a global infrastructure development strategy that aims to fundamentally reshape global trade. The BRI is a key element of the Chinese President Xi Jinping’s ‘Major Country Diplomacy,’ which intends to expand China’s leadership role in global affairs. The BRI covers 149 countries and promises increased connectivity between China and the rest of the world through infrastructure projects, policy coordination, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds. Since its inception in 2013, China has already spent an estimated US$200 billion on renewing and modernising infrastructure along the sea and overland trade routes that make up the BRI. However, it is not clear whether the BRI will actually deliver on its promise of achieving deeply transformative economic growth. Much like the impact of the internet when global online connectivity transformed criminality (global cybercrime now generates over US$1.5 trillion per year), the rapid development of infrastructural linkages and logistical corridors has the potential to radically alter the illegal trade landscape. As with the inception of the internet, the BRI has not been designed and implemented with the aversion of crime in mind, which may lead to negative developments including the expansion of illicit supply chains. To understand the consequences of BRI connectivity, we convened a two-day-long workshop at King’s College London with the financial support of the European Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF), attended by leading experts on..…

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  illicit trade as well as representatives of both consumer industries (namely tobacco, pharmaceuticals, and fertilisers) and international organisations. This paper is an outcome of the discussion(s) that took place at that same workshop as well as the research of the two co-authors on the BRI and its implications for illicit trade.

Washington, DC: Global Financial Integrity, 2022. 38p.

By Lauren Greenwood and Kevin Fashola

The issue brief examines the evolution of China’s role in global illicit fentanyl trade. China placed all forms of fentanyl and its analogues on a regulatory schedule in 2019, but the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) assesses China remains the primary country of origin for illicit fentanyl and fentanyl-related substances trafficked in the United States. While Mexican drug cartels have always been a critical node for smuggling illicit fentanyl into the United States, this brief finds that the links between Chinese and Mexican actors in the fentanyl trade has grown in complexity, including the development of sophisticated money laundering operations. Finally, the brief concludes that while cooperation between the United States and China remains limited, there are opportunities for the United States to work with other countries on counter-narcotic enforcement.
 Washington, EC:  U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission,