By David Bright and Simone J Deegan 

Outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMCGs) are often reported to be disproportionately involved in crime. Debate continues about the relationship between the organisational structure of these groups and the extent and types of criminal activities undertaken by group members. A systematic review of the existing literature was conducted to examine the organisational structures that underpin the criminal activity of OMCGs. The available empirical research, though scant, supports the notion that, at least in some clubs or chapters, the structure of OMCGs facilitates criminal activities by individuals or small cliques, sometimes in collaboration with non-members. 

Australia.. Australian Institute of Criminology. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 621. March 2021. 16p

By Michael McLaggan

Prominent throughout the world, illicit financial flows (IFFs) not only undermine the ability of states to collect revenue, but they also pose challenges to governance and the rule of law and provide avenues for the funding of further illicit activity. Although a global occurrence, IFFs may manifest differently at the regional level, making a uniform approach difficult. This calls for a model that is more inclusive of different types of flows than traditional understandings of IFFs, which tend to focus on financial flows within the formal system. In regions such as East and southern Africa, where informality is much higher than in the developed nations of the ‘global north’, the greater focus on formal systems does not find the same degree of applicability. This is not to downplay the necessity of observing and countering formal financial flows of an illicit nature but rather to emphasise the need to pay greater attention to informal and trade flows, which are prolific in less developed regions. This paper draws on extensive research by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) – in particular, the Observatory of Illicit Economies in East and Southern Africa – in addition to research by other international organisations, to analyse whether the ‘IFFs pyramid’ proposed by the GI-TOC (Reitano, 2022) is applicable to and useful for researchers seeking to understanding illicit financial flows in various settings around the world but especially in regions where greater levels of informality exists, such as East and southern Africa. The paper finds that the pervasive informality of markets in the East and southern African region, and their abuse by criminal actors, means that greater attention to IFFs is necessary in this sphere. Common also is the use of illicitly acquired, or otherwise illicitly traded commodities, in barter (that is, goods for goods) markets. Identified as particularly relevant is the pernicious influence of state-embedded actors, who often play substantial roles in the facilitation of IFFs and act as obstacles to policies to address them. Furthermore, vested interests of criminal actors in keeping certain industries and markets informal serve as barriers to formalisation and highlight the greater need to pay attention to informal financial flows especially. The due consideration to trade and informal flows is what makes the IFFs pyramid a useful model for understanding these flows in both global and regional settings. At the very least, the pyramid model highlights the need for holistic approaches and policy reform when considering IFFs in less developed regions.  

Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham. 2024, 33pg

By Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, Alla Mohammad Mohmandzai and Ruggero Scaturro

How will the new Taliban regime change Afghanistan’s illicit drug landscape in the coming years? Are the Taliban genuinely committed to combating the flow of narcotics within and outside Afghanistan, as signalled by the ban on opium cultivation issued by the Taliban leadership in April 2022?

Based on field research coordinated by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) in the Afghan provinces of Helmand and Nangarhar, this paper analyses the changes to the Afghan drug economy since the Taliban’s return to power on 15 August 2021, documenting the adaptation of local actors engaged in the opium economy to the events that had a profound impact on their lives. Historical analysis supplements the field research findings and aids our understanding of the shifting conditions of the illicit drug economy in Afghanistan. Given the institutional weakness of Afghan statehood after nearly five decades of civil war, the GI-TOC’s approach represents a collation of provincial and district-level assessments rather than a comprehensive country-wide assessment.

This research paper outlines the complexities of local conditions and reveals a regime fragmented among varied interests and power structures, seeking to reconcile the profitability of the drugs trade with the strive for legitimacy.

University of Birmingham, Research Paper No. 27. 2023, 31pg

By Timothy Cubitt, Christopher Dowling and Anthony Morgan 

This study examines the trends in and spatial distribution of recorded offending by Australian outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) affiliates at the onset of a territorial conflict between two clubs in the state of New South Wales. Results show an increase in recorded offending by OMCG affiliates involved in the conflict and based in the disputed territory. Comparable increases in recorded offending by these clubs were not detected in the areas surrounding this territory or in the rest of New South Wales, and there was little mobility into the conflict region by those outside of it. There was a smaller, short-lived increase in recorded crime by affiliates of other gangs in the conflict region but not elsewhere. In short, changes in offending patterns were largely limited to the clubs involved in the conflict and localised to the territory in dispute. This research can help guide focused law enforcement responses during periods of gang conflict. 

Australia, Australian Institute of Criminology. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 667. 2021. 18pg

By Timothy Cubitt and Anthony Morgan 

Risk assessment tools are used widely in the criminal justice response to serious offenders. Despite growing recognition that certain outlaw motorcycle gang (OMCG) members and their clubs are likely to be involved in crime, particularly serious crime, this is not an area where risk assessment tools have been developed and validated. The nature of offending by OMCGs, and policing responses to OMCGs, requires a novel approach to risk assessment. This study uses machine learning methods to develop a risk assessment tool to predict recorded high-harm offending. Results are compared with those of a model predicting any recorded offending. The model predicted high-harm offending with a high degree of accuracy. Importantly, the tool appeared able to accurately identify offenders prior to the point of escalation. This has important implications for informing law enforcement responses. 

Australia, Australian Institute of Criminology. Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 646. March 2022. 18pg