By Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand & Christopher Blattman

  Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2, 456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = 0.13 after multiple testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = 0.03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 20:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a pre-specified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) that remain statistically significant even after multiple testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together. 

Unpublished paper, 2023. 136p.

By Daniel Semenza and Richard Stansfield

America is entrenched in an ongoing epidemic of gun violence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, homicides and nonfatal shootings spiked, reaching unprecedented levels in many US cities. Gun violence remains exceptionally high around the country, although there is evidence that homicides are beginning to decrease in cities like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis. Generally, the US has a homicide rate roughly 25 times higher than most peer industrialized countries and contains about 40 percent of the global stock of civilian firearms. Almost all of the firearms that end up on the streets are first sold through legally appointed federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) following manufacture or import. Given the unique ease of access to firearms in the US, there is a growing sense of urgency to better understand how crime guns are acquired and from where they originate to support much stronger supply-side efforts to address gun violence.

Prior research has focused extensively on the large “secondary market” for firearms, where guns are transferred between unlicensed persons or to those legally prohibited from buying a firearm. Most guns used in a crime are illegally acquired through secondary market channels via small-scale purchases, middlemen, and “fences” that supply weapons to local illicit markets. In contrast, the focus of our recent work has been on the “primary market,” which includes the legal retail sale of firearms from federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) to private consumers. The primary market directly feeds the illicit secondary market for firearms.

Albany, NY: Rockefeller Institute of Government, 2023. 26p.

By Jared Diamond

London. Penguin 1997. 675p.

In this "artful, informative, and delightful" (William H. McNeill, New York Review of Books) book, Jared Diamond convincingly argues that geographical and environmental factors shaped the modern world. Societies that had had a head start in food production advanced beyond the hunter-gatherer stage, and then developed religion --as well as nasty germs and potent weapons of war --and adventured on sea and land to conquer and decimate preliterate cultures. A major advance in our understanding of human societies, Guns, Germs, and Steel chronicles the way that the modern world came to be and stunningly dismantles racially based theories of human history. Winner of the Pulitzer Prize, the Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, the Rhone-Poulenc Prize, and the Commonwealth club of California's Gold Medal.

By Nick Brodie

Melbourne. Hardie Grant Books. 220. 308p.

This is a history of Australia, measured by the gun. From bushrangers and soldiers to the many farmers and recreational shooters shooting animals and each other, the firearm is an inescapable part of Australia’s story and its characters.
 
But just as guns have been a part of Australia’s modern identity, so too has gun control. After the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, Australia became a world-leader in firearms regulation. Yet even before this tragedy, questions had long been brewing: questions over who could shoot what, where, and when. This is the story of the answers we negotiated.
 
In Under Fire, acclaimed popular historian Nick Brodie takes a closer look at the role of guns in Australia and how we removed ourselves from the firing line.

By Solomon, Daniel; Donine, Tallan

From the document: "In 2018, anti-Muslim extremists in Sri Lanka organized a series of attacks against Muslim civilians throughout the country [...]. Extremist leaders used a misleading viral video to stoke fears that the country's Muslim minority was organizing a campaign to sterilize the majority Sinhalese population en masse. The video circulated widely on Facebook, and participants in the violence also set up private WhatsApp groups to coordinate the violence. This is just one example of a disturbing pattern that is increasingly under the spotlight: social media seeming to fuel violence, including large-scale and deliberate attacks on civilians based on their identity. [...] The goal of this paper is to stimulate and frame discussion during the Sudikoff Interdisciplinary Seminar on Genocide Prevention about the relationship between social media technologies and the risk and prevention of mass atrocities. Based on a review of relevant research, policy documents, and public statements by social media companies, the paper surveys current knowledge and identifies important gaps in understanding about (1) how social media platforms have contributed to the risk and occurrence of mass atrocities in the past and how they might do so in the future;1 and (2) strategies to help prevent social media from fueling mass atrocities."

United States Holocaust Memorial Museum. 2023. 26p.

By United States. Federal Bureau Of Investigation

From the document: "In 2013, the president signed into law the Investigative Assistance for Violent Crimes Act of 2012, which led the FBI to examine active shooter incidents since 2000. The findings in this report are intended to provide an overview of active shooter incidents to help law enforcement, other first responders, and the public better understand the levels of threats associated with active shooter incidents. In 2022, the FBI designated 50 shootings as active shooter incidents. Although incidents decreased by 18% from 2021 (61 incidents), the number of active shooter incidents increased by 66.7% compared to 2018 (30 incidents). The 50 active shooter incidents in 2022 occurred in 25 states and the District of Columbia and represent seven location categories, including open spaces, commerce, residences, education, government, houses of worship, and a health care facility. [...] Data cited in this report for active shooter incidents that occurred in 2022 is valid as of February 10, 2023; however, incident data from prior published reports was not updated. If additional incidents meeting FBI criteria are identified after the publication of this document, every effort will be made to factor those incidents into future reporting."

United States. Federal Bureau of Investigation. 2023. 33p.

By Lauren Pinson

Linkages between illicit arms, organized crime, and armed conflict can reinforce one another while also escalating and prolonging violence and eroding governance.1 Financial gains from crime can lengthen or intensify armed conflicts by creating revenue streams for non-State armed groups (NSAGs). Beyond undermining the monopoly of the State on the use of force, armed conflict also creates an environment that can enable organized crime to prosper. In this context, when hostilities cease and parties to a conflict move towards a peaceful resolution, the widespread availability of surplus arms and ammunition can contribute to a situation of ‘criminalized peace’ that obstructs sustainable peacebuilding efforts. Illicit arms and ammunition clearly link conflict to crime as well as crime to conflict. Illicit arms can both enable and fuel an armed conflict, while different conflict phases provide opportunities for the diversion of arms and a potentially lucrative income source for organized arms trafficking networks. NSAGs and organized criminal groups (OCGs) use illicit arms to engage in conflict or perpetrate crime respectively, while both types of groups can also be involved in the trafficking of arms. Furthermore, there are often-blurred lines between these types of groups, particularly in conflict and post-conflict settings. Researchers and practitioners have examined the nexus between two of these three security challenges: armed conflict, organized crime, and illicit arms. Yet, there has been limited research examining the linkages between all three of these security challenges. In response to this knowledge gap, this issue brief explores the different ways in which illicit arms connect armed conflict and organized crime and provides suggestions on how to better address these interconnected challenges. This brief may further inform practitioners and policymakers by framing the conversation for future decision-making and research.   

Geneva: United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) and  United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), 2022.  36p.

By Daniel W. Webster, Carla G. Tilchin, Mitchell L. Doucette

  Background Safe Streets Baltimore (Safe Streets) is a community violence intervention (CVI) program designed to reduce gun violence in neighborhoods with high levels of gun violence. Frontline workers are recruited for their ability to connect with individuals at highest risk for involvement in gun violence and mediate disputes, promote nonviolent norms for settling disputes, and connect program participants to services. Baltimore has fully implemented the program in 11 neighborhoods between 2007 and 2021. Six of these sites have been fully operational for less than three years and have not been previously evaluated. Prior evaluations of Safe Streets have shown mixed results across the sites and over time. Study Methods To estimate program effects, we analyzed variation in neighborhood-level monthly counts of homicides and nonfatal shootings for the period January 1, 2003 through July 31, 2022. The primary analyses were augmented synthetic control models for each site. This method generated a “synthetic” comparison for each Safe Streets site using a weighted combination of data from neighborhoods that did not implement the program but had similar levels and trends of violence before program implementation. We calculated program effects comparing treated sites to their synthetic controls, estimating what would have happened if Safe Streets had not been implemented. Because confidence in forecasts from statistical models tends to decrease over long periods of time, we generated estimates for the first four years of program implementation for the longer running sites in addition to estimates of the entire time a Safe Streets site has been in operation. We calculated average effects across all sites and within strata of site tenure (longer running and new sites) weighted by the precision of each site’s estimated effects. Key Findings: During the first four years of program implementation across the five longer-running sites, Safe Streets was associated with a statistically significant average reduction in homicides of 32%. Over the entire study period among these longer-running sites, homicides were 22% lower than forecasted if the program had not been implemented. Three of the five sites had significant reductions ranging from 28% in McElderry Park to 48% in Lower Park Heights. In SandtownWinchester, Safe Streets implementation was associated with a significant increase in homicides. Estimates of Safe Streets effects across the six new sites varied with an average reduction of 8% that was not statistically significant. Over the entire study period across all sites, Safe Streets was associated with a statistically significant 23% reduction in nonfatal shootings. Eight of the 11 sites had program-related reductions in nonfatal shootings. Four sites had significant reductions ranging from 29% in Lower Park Heights to 84% in Franklin Square. Sandtown-Winchester’s site was associated with a 53% reduction in nonfatal shootings over a period of more than seven years

Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Gun Violence Solution, 2023. 34p.

By Daniel W. Webster, | Cassandra K. Crifasi, Rebecca G. Williams, | Marisa Doll Booty  | Shani A. L. Buggs

This report is the product of the Reducing Violence, Building Trust: Data to Guide Gun Law Enforcement in Baltimore project. Researchers from the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Policy and Research (JHCGPR) collected and analyzed data relevant to the enforcement of laws restricting the possession of firearms by prohibited individuals and unlawful carrying of concealed firearms to provide data-driven recommendations for more fair and effective practices. The project was designed to help inform the response to the dual crises in Baltimore—extraordinarily high rates of gun violence, and gun law enforcement practices that, in some cases, have violated the law and more generally weakened community members’ trust in the police. In 2017, Baltimore experienced its highest homicide rate on record during two out of the past three years and had the highest murder rate among cities with a population greater than 500,000 in the U.S.1 Homicides declined in 2018, but in 2019, Baltimore’s per capita homicide rate eclipsed the 2017 record, ending the year with 348 total homicides (58.6 per 100,000 population). Nine out of 10 homicides (291) in the city were committed with firearms. The number of nonfatal shootings in 2019, 771, was also higher than that seen in the past five years.2 Because illegal gun possession is often a precursor to shootings, making arrests for illegal gun possession has long played a prominent role in the Baltimore Police Department’s strategy to combat violent crime. While BPD arrests for drug-related crimes have plummeted by 70% from 2014 to 2019, arrests for weapons violations, principally illegal possession of firearms, have changed relatively little during that time period. Police units focused on illegal gun carrying in hot spots for shootings have helped to reduce shootings, but less focused enforcement practices have not always translated into measurable reductions in violence.3 Past efforts to get illegal guns off the streets and deter illegal gun possession without adequate oversight enabled civil rights violations, facilitated alarming criminal activity by BPD’s Gun Trace Task Force, and increased distrust of the police in many communities. These practices and their aftermath have lasting and harmful implications for public safety and justice. They also motivate current efforts by BDP to facilitate reforms and build trust with community members in compliance with the Consent Decree. Researchers from JHCGPR drew from a variety of sources of data from Baltimore and studies from other cities to summarize key findings concerning proactive gun law enforcement practices—legal issues, impacts of police stops and searches on individuals, impacts on gun violence, community members’ views on the appropriateness of police practices and their desire for greater police accountability, and measures some law enforcement agencies are taking to improve the effectiveness and prevent abuses from proactive gun law enforcement. The report cites prior systematic and expert reviews of relevant research, especially the 2018 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s committee on proactive policing.a Several sources of data from Baltimore were used, including: 1) findings from a recent JHCGPR report on the effects of law enforcement and city-led strategies on gun violence (2,3) the United States Department of Justice’s City of Baltimore Consent Decree and reports from the selected Independent Monitor;  3) new data from court records on case dispositions for cases involving charges for illegal firearm possession; and 4) household surveys and focus group interviews with residents living in some of Baltimore’s neighborhoods most impacted by gun violence. The JHCGPR study team sought to identify promising models for effective and fair proactive gun law enforcement through interviews with law enforcement officials in 24 other jurisdictions. This report provides 13 specific research findings relevant to eight recommendations informed by evidence that is intended to guide future proactive gun law enforcement efforts capable of reducing crime and enhancing community confidence and trust.  

Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Gun Violence Solutions, 2020. 65p.

By Nathaniel M. Lesher

With the rising threat of active shooters, armed off-duty and retired law enforcement officers may prove to be an effective tool in American homeland security. Yet, while the number of active shooter and critical incidents in the United States have continued to rise, the number of non-traditional response interventions has remained minimal. Unfortunately, the presence of armed, off-duty law enforcement officers can create other problems, often referred to as blue-on-blue encounters. This thesis examines the questions Can tools such as Hero911 mitigate some of the major risks associated with self-dispatch How can off-duty or plainclothes officers be best incorporated into active shooter response Finally, what processes can make utilization of non-traditional responders safer for all This thesis concludes that over the past 20 years of active shooter responses, first responders have missed an opportunity with respect to the use of non-traditional responders. On- or off-duty non-traditional responders serve as a force multiplier, which widens the pool of available responders. Use of any technology is not without risks, and to avoid more confusion during an active shooter event, training is paramount. Properly used, tools such as Hero911 can reduce the risks involved in non-traditional officer response.

Monterey, CA: Naval Postgraduate School, 2022. 103p.

By Robert VerBruggen

Decades ago, carrying a gun—especially a concealed gun—was a reliable indicator of criminal activity in much of the country. Police officers who noticed a civilian “packing” were justified in assuming that the individual was thereby breaking the law; in short, he was an armed criminal. Under a key 1968 Supreme Court decision, this was reason enough to both stop and frisk the suspect.

Things have changed. Over the past several decades, most states have radically liberalized their gun-carrying laws, first by granting concealed-carry permits on a “shall-issue” basis, which means that anyone who meets certain requirements, such as training and a clean background check, is entitled to a permit. Now, more than 20 states no longer require a permit at all. And in June 2022, the Supreme Court, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Ass’n, Inc. v. Bruen, held that all states must allow law-abiding citizens to carry guns, invalidating New York’s requirement that applicants for a carry license must show a special need to carry, beyond the basic desire for self-defense.

Particularly during a time in which cities across the country have experienced rising gun violence, the court’s decision raises certain issues that need to be resolved. Chief among them: How can police continue to get illegally possessed guns off the street when it is legal—and, indeed, a constitutional right—for many individuals to carry guns on the street?

This report summarizes the legal landscape surrounding stops and frisks. It also investigates—using data from New York City’s stop-and-frisk program—how pedestrian stops of armed individuals tend to play out in practice. The goal here is not to take stances on guns or policing practices. Instead, it is to map out the legal status quo, highlight the tensions among competing priorities, and lay out options that judges and states with different sets of values might consider.

New York: Manhattan Institute, 2023. 17p.

By John J. Donohue, Samuel V. Cai, Matthew V. Bondy, Philip J. Cook

We analyze a sample of 47 major US cities to illuminate the mechanisms that lead Right-to-Carry concealed handgun laws to increase crime. The altered behavior of permit holders, career criminals, and the police combine to generate 29 and 32 percent increases in firearm violent crime and firearm robbery respectively. The increasing firearm violence is facilitated by a massive 35 percent increase in gun theft (p=0.06), with further crime stimulus flowing from diminished police effectiveness, as reflected in a 13 percent decline in violent crime clearance rates (p=0.03). Any crime-inhibiting benefits from increased gun carrying are swamped by the crime-stimulating impacts.

Cambridge Mass. National Bureau Of Economic Research. 2022. 36p.

By Rajeev Ramchand, Jessica Saunders

Australia’s 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) banned several types of firearms and resulted in the government buying hundreds of thousands of the banned weapons from their owners. Studies examining the effect of removing so many weapons from the community have found that homicides, suicides, and mass shootings were less common after the NFA was implemented, although such incidents were declining prior to 1996. The strongest evidence is consistent with the claim that the NFA caused reductions in firearm suicides, mass shootings, and female homicide victimization. However, there is also evidence that raises questions about whether, for at least firearm suicides, those changes can be attributed to the NFA or to other factors that influenced rates of these outcomes around the time the NFA was implemented.

Rand Corp. 2021. 27p.

By RAND

Good public policies are based on facts and data, and the most effective laws are written when policymakers understand the effects of such laws on a range of outcomes and can weigh the inherent trade-offs. As part of the RAND Gun Policy in America initiative, we conducted rigorous and transparent reviews of what current scientific knowledge could tell the public and policymakers about the true effects of many gun policies that are frequently discussed in state legislatures. Our first review, released in 2018, synthesized the available scientific data from studies published between 2004 and 2016 examining how 13 classes of state-level gun policies affect firearm-related deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, participation in hunting and sport shooting, and other outcomes. In 2020, we released an expanded and updated review, which added five new classes of gun policies and extended the period over which we conducted our literature search to span from 1995 to 2018. In 2023, we incorporated those studies in our updated analyses, drawing new or revised conclusions about the quality of evidence available to support claims about the effects of various policies.

RAND Objective Analysis Effective Solutions. 2023. 9p.

By United States. Bureau Of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, And Explosives

From the Introduction: "The National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA) is a comprehensive examination of commerce in firearms in the United States and the diversion of firearms to illegal markets. Produced by a team comprised of ATF [Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives] subject-matter experts, academics from a variety of disciplines specializing in research relating to firearms, and other law enforcement professionals, the NFCTA is designed to provide the public, researchers, and policymakers with analysis of data lawfully collected by ATF as part of its regulatory and law enforcement missions to inform the dialogue on firearm law and policy. To ensure comprehensive analysis, the NFCTA is being produced in several volumes. In May 2022, ATF published Volume I, 'Firearms in Commerce'. [...] ATF routinely generates bulletins for law enforcement and industry, and issues public safety advisories for all citizens. This Volume of the NFCTA, however, represents the first comprehensive report incorporating crime gun information from the full range of sources used by ATF in more than twenty years. Advancements in ballistic analytical technology and information processing during this period have enhanced ATF's capacity to support law enforcement efforts to identify, investigate, and prosecute those who use firearms to commit violent offenses and the traffickers who illegally divert those crime guns to criminals. Volume II describes in detail the sources of information that constitute CGI [Crime Gun Intelligence], and how CGI is leveraged to promote effective investigation of firearm-related violence. Finally, the information and analysis in NFCTA Volumes I and II set the foundation for the subject that will be addressed in Volume III, 'Firearms Trafficking.'"

Washington DC. United States. Bureau Of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, And Explosives. 2023. 9p.

By David E. Olson

Justifiably, there has been considerable attention and focus by the public, scholars, policy makers, and criminal justice and public health practitioners on violent crimes involving firearms. However, much less attention has been paid to the crime of illegal possession of firearms. Part of this reflects dramatically different definitions of this behavior across the states given the variation in the requirements for concealed carry of a handgun, and thus what constitutes legal versus illegal possession or carrying. And while clearly the commission of a violent crime with a firearm versus the possession of a firearm by someone not licensed/permitted to do so are substantively different behaviors, often the term “gun crimes” conflates the two criminal offenses. This essay examines the 7 issue of how illegal possession of a firearm is responded to by the justice system, with a focus on Illinois to illustrate some of these issues and how arrests and convictions for these offenses disproportionately impact Black men.

Durham, NC: Duke University Center for Firearms Law, 2022. 11p.

BY National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN

In 1997, ATF initiated the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) program. Through this program, ATF provided for the first time comprehensive national automated ballistic imaging services to local, state, territorial, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies across the country. NIBIN technology captures images of ballistic evidence, including cartridge casings1 recovered in shooting investigations (also referred to as “casings”) and test-fired cartridge casings2 from recovered crime guns (also referred to as “test-fires”), and stores those images in the NIBIN national database that conducts automated analysis for further review by expert technicians. Since 1997, law enforcement agencies have been submitting recovered ballistic evidence to ATF for entry into the NIBIN system, building a national and robust network of ballistic data. As of December 2021, approximately 5.2 million pieces of ballistic evidence have been entered into the system.

Washington D.C. ATF. 2021. 19p.

By The ATF National Tracing Center (NTC) and ATF International Affairs Division (IAD)

ATF and IAD cooperate with international law enforcement partners to disrupt transnational firearms trafficking and reduce violent gun crime in other countries. A central component of this effort is the use of ATF’s eTrace system to provide information on crime guns recovered and submitted for tracing by LEAs in foreign countries. Between 2017 and 2021, ATF received trace requests from an average of 75 countries involving approximately 33,000 crime gun trace requests on an annual basis. ATF continuously works to improve the tracing of crime guns recovered in other countries by completing formal tracing agreements with new international law enforcement partners and training them on the appropriate use of the eTrace system. As of 2021, ATF had eTrace Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) with LEAs in 47 countries, representing 1,843 eTrace user accounts. To improve accessibility, Spanish language eTrace is available and currently used by law enforcement agencies in Mexico and other Central and South American countries.

The ATF National Tracing Center (NTC) and ATF International Affairs Division (IAD). 2021. 27p.

By Smart, Rosanna; Morral, Andrew R.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Charbonneau, Amanda K.; Williams, Jhacova; Smucker, Sierra; Cherney, Samantha; Xenakis, Lea

3rd. Edition. From the Webpage: "In this report, part of the RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers seek objective information about what scientific literature reveals about the likely effects of various gun laws. In the third edition of this report, the authors incorporate more-recent research in their synthesis of the available scientific data regarding the effects of 18 state firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, suicides, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas in which more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies."

RAND Corporation. 2023. 104p.

By Alathari, Lina; Drysdale, Diana; Driscoll, Steven; Carlock, Arna L.; Cutler, Meagan; Besser, Jason

From the Executive Summary: "As law enforcement agencies, workplaces, and other community organizations implement behavioral threat assessment programs, the approach should be guided by the research findings contained in this report. When conducted properly, a behavioral threat assessment will involve promoting bystander reporting to identify warning signs of potential violence, systematically gathering information about the circumstances and behaviors of concern, assessing the possibility of violence as an outcome, and implementing preventive management strategies to make positive and safe outcomes more likely. The 173 attacks contained in this report impacted a variety of locations, 'including businesses/workplaces, schools, houses of worship, military bases, nonprofit service providers, residential complexes, public transportation, and open spaces'. In many cases, the attacker had a known affiliation with the site of the attack. The analysis is intended to provide critical information to a cross-sector of community organizations that have a role in preventing these types of tragedies."

Washington. US. United States. Secret Service. National Threat Assessment Center. 2023. 70p.