By Spencer P. Chainey & Arantza Alonso Berbotto 

Crime script analysis is becoming an increasingly used approach for examining organized crime. Crime scripts can use data from multiple sources, including open sources of intelligence (OSINT). Limited guidance exists, however, on how to populate the content of a crime script with data, and validate these data. This results in crime scripts being generated intuitively, restricts them from being scrutinized for their quality and limits the opportunity to combine or compare crime scripts. We introduce a practical process for populating the content of a crime script that involves simple coding procedures and uses document analysis to quality assure data that are extracted from open sources. We illustrate the process with the example of the theft of oil from pipelines in Mexico committed by organized crime groups. The structured methodical process we introduce produces a crime script of high quality, helps to improve the systematic analysis of decision-making performed by members of organized crime groups, and can improve the identification of opportunities for crime control.

Published: 23 August 2021, Trends in Organized Crime, Volume 25, pages 272–300, (2022)

By Jonah Rexer

Multinationals in the extractive sectors of weak states may face resource theft by armed groups. This criminality is often abetted by state corruption, even though firms are willing to pay for protection. I study indigenization in Nigeria's oil sector, which increased participation by Nigerian firms substantially. Despite evidence that local firms are of lower quality, localization increases output and reduces oil theft. A bargaining model illustrates that political connections align law enforcement incentives, solving commitment problems. Data on raids by government forces show that local firms receive preferential law enforcement protection. I find that connections to military elites drive the local advantage.

.Princeton, NJ:  Princeton University, 2022. 113p  

By Christian Gunadi; Yuyan Shi,

Recreational cannabis legalization (RCL) has been advocated as a way to reduce the number of individuals interacting with the US criminal justice system; in theory, however, cannabis decriminalization can achieve this objective without generating the negative public health consequences associated with RCL. It is still unclear whether RCL can bring additional benefits in terms of reducing cannabis possession arrests in states that have already decriminalized cannabis. OBJECTIVE -  To examine whether RCL was associated with changes in cannabis possession arrests in US states that had already decriminalized cannabis during the study period and whether these changes differed across age and racial subgroups. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS - This repeated cross-sectional study used cannabis possession arrest data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCRP) for US states from 2010 through 2019. Statistical analysis was conducted from October 6, 2021, to October 12, 2022. EXPOSURES -  Implementation of statewide RCL. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES - Cannabis possession arrest rates per 1000 population per year were assessed with a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design and were used to estimate the association of RCL with arrest rates in RCL states that had or had not decriminalized cannabis before RCL. This association was also examined in subgroups for age (adults vs youths) and race (Black vs White). RESULTS - This study included UCRP data for 31 US states, including 9 states that implemented RCL during the study period (4 without and 5 with decriminalization) and 22 non-RCL states. In the 4 states that had not decriminalized cannabis before legalization, RCL was associated with a 76.3% decrease (95% CI, −81.2% to −69.9%) in arrest rates among adults. In the 5 states that had already decriminalized cannabis, RCL was still associated with a substantial decrease in adult arrest rates (−40.0%; 95% CI, −55.1% to −19.8%). There was no association of RCL with changes in arrest rates among youths. In addition, changes in arrest rates associated with RCL did not differ among Black and White individuals. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE -  In this repeated cross-sectional study, RCL was associated with a sizable reduction in cannabis possession arrests among adults in states that had already decriminalized cannabis during the study period (2010-2019), albeit the magnitude was smaller compared with states that had not decriminalized cannabis before RCL. In addition, RCL did not seem to be associated with changes in arrest rates among youths or disparities in arrest rates among Black and White individuals. 

JAMA Netw Open. 2022 Dec 5;5(12):e2244922

By Pryce S. Michener, Elyse Bianchet, Shannon Fox, Elizabeth A. Evans & Peter D. Friedmann 

Background

Opioid-related overdose is the leading cause of death for people recently released from incarceration, however treatment with medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) during incarceration can reduce the mortality risk. This study seeks to qualitatively analyze perceptions of post-release overdose risk from the perspectives of people who received MOUD while incarcerated in one of eight Massachusetts jails during 2021–2022 using the Risk Environment Framework to guide analyses.

Methods

N = 38 participants with lived experience of MOUD treatment during incarceration who are now living in the community were interviewed on factors that may contribute to or protect against post-release overdose risk. Themes were identified inductively and deductively using the Risk Environment Framework and its domains, which organizes themes along physical, social, economic, and policy environments on both the micro- and macro- scales.

Results

The physical risk environment included loss of opioid tolerance during incarceration, polysubstance use, and the toxicity of the regional drug supply as key producers of increased risk for post-release overdose. Social drivers of risk included peer group risk norms—including peer-driven harm reduction practices and interpersonal relationships between drug sellers and buyers—as well as macro-level social determinants of health such as housing insecurity and availability of mental health services. Economic drivers of post-release overdose risk included lack of income generation during incarceration and employment challenges. Participants discussed several aspects of policy that contribute to post-release overdose risk, including availability of harm reduction supplies, public health services, and broader policy around MOUD.

Conclusions

The perspectives of people with lived experience are vital to understanding the disproportionate risks of overdose for those recently released from incarceration. Our results highlight the intersectional factors that produce and reproduce the post-release overdose risk environment, providing support for interventions across each domain of the Risk Environment Framework. By capturing perspectives from people with lived experience of OUD and incarceration during this critical period of risk, we can better identify interventions that target and mitigate overdose-related harm in this population.

Harm Reduction Journal (2024) 21:138

By Adam Teperski, Stewart Boiteux, and Callan Brown

Aim: To examine trends in drug driving charges, roadside drug testing, and population drug use in New South Wales (NSW) between 2008 and 2023. METHOD Data on drug driving proceedings and roadside drug testing were obtained from the NSW Police Force. Focusing on the period between 2008 and 2023, we describe trends in the number of drug driving charges laid by police, as well as changes in the volume of roadside drug tests undertaken by police and the detection rate over time. We also examine the profile of drivers who are proceeded against after testing positive and any differences in key characteristics over time. Finally, to support the interpretation of these results, we assess changes in drug use from two population drug use monitoring systems and consider associated trends in self-reported drug driving behaviours. RESULTS Between 2008 and 2023, the number of drug driving charges rose from an average of 102 per quarter in 2008 to 3,296 in 2023. This significant growth in charges followed the announcement of two expansions of the NSW Mobile Drug Testing (MDT) program, which resulted in a rapid increase in testing volumes from around 20,000 to 156,000 tests per year in 2008 and 2019 respectively. While the MDT expansions aimed to increase police capacity to detect and deter drug driving behaviours, we found a weak relationship between total testing volumes and subsequent detection rates, with the average detection rate varying between 2% and 18%. This suggests that the number of drug driving charges over this 15-year period was not simply a function of the number of tests conducted, but also related to when, where, and for whom tests were used. When we compared drug driving offenders charged in 2019 with those charged in 2023, we found that the 2023 cohort were more likely to be older, test positive for methamphetamine, reside in regional areas and have a prior drug driving charge. During the period we study, population-level drug use has remained relatively consistent. Meanwhile, the self-reported prevalence of drug driving has decreased at a steady rate, with this downward trend commencing prior to the start of the MDT program in NSW. CONCLUSION Sequential expansions of the MDT program have led to a considerable increase in the number of offenders charged with drug driving offences in NSW between 2008 and 2023. Recent growth in the roadside drug test detection rate and subsequent charges may be driven by police targeting of repeat drug driving offenders, and motorists who offend in regional areas. 

Bureau Brief, No. 172 Sydney, NSW: NSW Bureau of Crime  Statistics and Research. ....2024. 23p.

By Maurice Ogbonnaya 

What began as a struggle for the political and economic autonomy of the Niger Delta region of Nigeria has morphed into organised crime of transnational dimensions that has turned the West African coast and the Gulf of Guinea into one of the most unsafe maritime zones in the world and is decimating Nigeria’s economy. The crimes include kidnapping for ransom, maritime piracy, armed robbery at sea, the theft and smuggling of oil and other contraband products, illegal oil refining and bunkering. This report analyses the current drivers of organised crime in the region, arguing that crime has become a fundamental element of the struggle. Key findings • The Niger Delta region accounts for most of Nigeria’s estimated daily oil production of 2.5 million barrels, which makes the country Africa’s largest producer of oil and the sixthlargest oil-producing country in the world. • State repression, poverty and widespread inequality, politics, greed and institutional corruption in the oil and maritime sectors have shaped the evolution of the struggle from a nationalist movement to an organised criminal enterprise. • The Nigerian government must tackle issues of environmental degradation, infrastructural underdevelopment, poverty, the lack of job- and income-generating opportunities, especially for the youth, and institutionalised corruption in the oil and maritime sectors.  

ENACT Africa, 2020. 22p.

By Oluwole Ojewale

Mining and the illicit trade in minerals have long been the source of social and environmental upheaval in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and coltan, a mineral essential to modern electronics, has become a particular focus of criminal networks. This study reveals a network of organised crime involved in the production and supply chain of coltan, and its connections to legitimate businesses in advanced economies. It raises awareness of the implications of this illicit trade and suggests multi-stakeholder interventions to prevent criminal networks from operating in the Great Lakes Region. Key findings • As 5G technology grows, the demand for coltan increases. • Much of the coltan produced by artisanal mining remains unaccounted for due to the government’s inability to access and regulate mines in remote territories. • Coltan smuggling is enabled by state collusion and corrupted networks of social relations. • Coltan smuggling flourishes because of the differences between the prices set in mining areas and those on the black market. • Environmental impact assessments are seldom carried out before exploration for coltan begins. • Sites of historical heritage and indigenous norms are violated by artisanal miners and foreign companies. • Exploitation of children, rape and gender-based violence are common at coltan mining sites.

ENACT Africa, 2022. 20p.

By Romi Sigsworth and Shaun Shelly

South Africa’s prohibitionist and punitive response to people who cultivate, sell and use drugs has failed to reduce the supply, demand or harms related to the use and trade in scheduled drugs. This report explores the universal costs and consequences of prohibition before providing a global contextualisation of current drug policy debates. It then outlines the historical context of drug policy in South Africa and suggests what might be done differently in the present and future to reduce the burden of drugs and drug policy in the country. Key findings • Despite the vast expenditure on a prohibitionist and criminal justice approach to drugs globally over more than five decades, drugs are more readily available at lower prices, drug use has increased significantly and the social and health harms associated with current policies and responses to drugs are substantial. • In South Africa, the criminalisation of people who use drugs is a massive burden on the police, courts and correctional services, as well as a significant barrier to resolving the economic, social and health challenges that communities face in developing an equitable and just society. • The current societal and political attitude towards people who use drugs, however, means that any changes to drug policy are unlikely to be radical or rapid until communities are  able to see the benefits of alternative approaches.

ENACT Africa, 2020. 28p.  

By Caitlin Hughes, Shann Hulme and Alison Ritter

In illicit drug markets, the price and purity of drugs change frequently. While it is well known that purity-adjusted price affects drug use, impacts on other outcomes are less clear. This rapid review examines the relationship between price, purity and seven population level measures of drug-related harm and any differences across three drug types. With a few exceptions, it found an inverse relationship between purity-adjusted price and drug-related harm, with higher purity-adjusted price associated with less drug-related harm, and lower purity-adjusted price associated with increased harm. This shows the value of price and purity data for predicting drug market impacts and the importance of improving price and purity data collection and analyses, particularly in Australia.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 598. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology 2020. 26p.

By Jesús Gorrín,  José Morales-Arilla , Bernardo Ricca

This paper documents how violence resulting from the Mexican Drug War hindered local export growth. Focusing on exports allows us to abstract from demand factors and measure effects on the local capacity to supply foreign markets. We compare exports of the same product to the same country, but facing differential exposure to violence after a close electoral outcome. Firms exogenously exposed to the Drug War experienced lower export growth. Violence eroded the local capacity to attract capital investment, disproportionately hampering large exporters and capital-intensive activities

2021. 60p.

By Fahra Rajabali, Kate Turcotte, Alex Zheng, Roy Purssell, Jane A. Buxton, Ian Pike

Poisoning, from substances such as illicit drugs, prescribed and over-the-counter medications, alcohol, pesticides, gases and household cleaners, is the leading cause of injury-related death and the second leading cause for injury-related hospital admission in British Columbia. We examined the health and economic costs of poisoning in BC for 2016, using a societal perspective, to support public health policies aimed at minimizing losses to society. Methods: Costs by intent, sex and age group were calculated in Canadian dollars using a classification and costing framework based on existing provincial injury data combined with data from the published literature. Direct cost components included fatal poisonings, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, ambulance attendance without transfer to hospital and calls to the British Columbia Drug and Poison Information Centre (BC DPIC) not resulting in ambulance attendance, emergency care or transfer to hospital. Indirect costs, measured as loss of earnings and informal caregiving costs, were also calculated. Results: We estimate that poisonings in BC totalled $812.5 million in 2016 with $108.9 million in direct health care costs and $703.6 million in indirect costs. Unintentional poisoning injuries accounted for 84% of total costs, 46% of direct costs and 89% of indirect costs. Males accounted for higher proportions of direct costs for all patient dispositions except hospital admissions. Patients aged 25–64 years accounted for higher proportions of direct costs except for calls to BC DPIC, where proportions were highest for children younger than 15 years. Interpretation: Hospital care expenditures represented the largest direct cost of poisoning, and lost productivity following death represented the largest indirect cost. Quantifying and understanding the financial burden of poisoning has implications not only for government and health care, but also for society, employers, patients and families.

CMAJ Open. 2023 Feb 14;11(1):E160-E168.

By Hannah E. Meyers

In November 2014, California voters approved a criminal justice reform measure, Proposition 47 (“Prop 47”), with almost 60% support. Ten years later, California voters are now considering rolling back some of its soft-on-crime policies. Prop 47 identified six “petty” crimes—grand theft, larceny, personal drug use, forgery, and two types of check fraud—and reclassified them. It downgraded these crimes, including thefts with property values under $950 and illegal drug possession for personal use, from felonies to misdemeanors. This paper presents a data-based argument on how Prop 47 shifted dynamics in both offender behavior and prosecutorial decision-making that damaged public safety and public health. Representative data from Riverside, one of California’s largest counties, suggest that Prop 47 increased re-offending, including serious felony re-offending, detention times, failures to appear in court, warrants issued on offenders, case dismissals in conjunction with plea deals, and the persistence levels of drug and theft offenders. Additional data collected from both Riverside and San Bernardino law-enforcement agencies show a significant drop in sentencing and in arrests, due partly to the diminished incentive for businesses to promptly report thefts. These shifts have also resulted in fewer defendants participating in in-custody drug treatment programs or other mandatory, supervised services because the incentives for doing so (avoiding prosecution and significant sentences) have evaporated. And, as California business owners can attest, reducing the cost of repeatedly committing theft removes the incentive for offenders to change their behavior. This has fueled increases in organized retail theft and fencing rings. Prop 47 also strained the resources of counties, by increasing the number of defendants sentenced to serve in overcrowded jails rather than prison.

New York: Manhattan Institute, 2024. 20p.

By Oisin Stronach, Paul Dietze, Michael Livingston, Amanda Roxburgh

Background

Over the past two decades methamphetamine-related harms have increased in Australia. Previous analysis of methamphetamine-related deaths has covered limited timeframes, and largely focused on drug-toxicity deaths. This paper examines long-term trends in methamphetamine-related deaths over 20 years, including deaths due to a range of specific causes.

Methods

Descriptive analyses were conducted on Australian methamphetamine-related deaths (2001–2023) by cause, extracted from the National Coronial Information System, an online database containing deaths reported to coroners in Australia and New Zealand. Joinpoint trend analyses were used to assess changes over time between 2001 and 2020 (with data from 2021 to 2023 likely incomplete and thus excluded).

Results

Unintentional drug toxicity was the cause of 49.8 % of methamphetamine-related deaths, intentional self-harm (including toxicity) 23.3 %, unintentional injury 15.1 %, natural causes 9.6 %, and assaults 2.3 %. Between 2001 and 2020, joinpoint analysis showed three trend change points among all-cause methamphetamine-related mortality rates, resulting in four distinct periods: two periods where they increased (2001–2006 – annual percentage change (APC) = 15.4 %; 2009–2016 – APC 25.5 %), and two where they decreased (2006–2009 – APC = –11.8 %; 2017–2020 – APC = –2.9 %). Similar patterns were evident among rates of intentional self-harm and unintentional injury. Deaths caused by unintentional drug toxicity saw two trend change points (2011, 2016), and rates increased across all three periods. Natural cause deaths had three trend change points (2007, 2010, 2015), and rates continued to rise after 2015, largely driven by increases in circulatory diseases.

Conclusion

Cause-specific models highlighted diverse trends. Recent trends show unintentional drug toxicity deaths have slightly increased, intentional self-harm stabilised, and unintentional injury and assault deaths have declined. Deaths from natural causes involving methamphetamine continued to increase, highlighting a public health concern and a potential need for early circulatory disease screening among people who use methamphetamine.

International Journal of Drug Policy Volume 131, September 2024, 104548  

By Prithwish Ganguli      

The rise of Cybercrime-as-a-Service (CaaS) represents a new frontier in the evolution of cybercrime, where sophisticated tools and malicious services are made readily available to a broad range of users through online marketplaces, often on the dark web. CaaS has democratized cybercrime, enabling even low-skilled attackers to launch powerful cyberattacks such as Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS), phishing campaigns, and ransomware attacks with ease. This paper explores the operational structure of CaaS, including the use of cryptocurrencies for transactions and the global reach of these illicit platforms. The implications of this shift extend beyond economic losses, threatening national security, corporate stability, and personal privacy. While governments and law enforcement agencies are struggling to keep pace with the rapid evolution of these services, the paper examines legal and regulatory challenges in combating CaaS, as well as the role of international cooperation. Furthermore, it discusses technological countermeasures, including artificial intelligence and machine learning, as potential solutions to mitigate the threat. Ethical considerations surrounding the surveillance and control of online spaces are also addressed. The paper concludes by highlighting future trends in CaaS and stressing the need for a balanced approach between innovation and security to effectively counter this growing threat.

International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR), 2024.

By Mark Shaw | Ian Tennant Ana Paula Oliviera | Daren Brookbanks

In 2000, the United Nations Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime (UNTOC), also known as the Palermo Convention, was adopted in a milestone moment for fostering global cooperation to combat organized crime. With 192 state parties, the convention and its protocols have provided a crucial legal framework for addressing types of crime such as human trafficking, migrant smuggling, and firearms trafficking. However, as transnational criminal networks continue to expand, new challenges are emerging, and the global community must take decisive action to ensure the UNTOC reaches its full potential. Our latest report highlights key obstacles to effective implementation: inconsistencies in national legislation, a lack of centralized data, and delays and restrictions in the convention’s Independent Review Mechanism (IRM). While the UNTOC’s widespread ratification is an achievement, these gaps hinder its ability to deliver impactful results. Without timely evaluations and better international cooperation, the global response to organized crime remains fragmented and insufficient. We believe that strengthening the UNTOC requires more robust data collection, greater transparency, and deeper engagement with civil society. Our report recommends the creation of an independent research center to monitor organized crime trends and track the convention’s progress. Additionally, we call for increased political will and resources to accelerate the IRM, ensuring that the UNTOC becomes a more powerful tool in the fight against evolving criminal markets.

Geneva: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. 2024. 48p.

By Sergio Salazar Araya

The article reconstructs and critically analyses two main contemporary discursive formations associated with migrants disappearing in transit through Mexico: the official state discourse and the social discourse of organizations searching for missing persons along the migratory route. This article discusses how the two discourses contradict each other, disputing how to represent a phenomenon occurring at the intersection of diverse, complex forms of violence. This exposes collusion between states and criminal organizations, as well as the scattered duplications and continuities between legal and illegal dynamic forces producing regional social order. Disappearance is a technique specific to actors who are battling one another in a broader field of transnational mobility and circulation. In addition, both discourses hinge on social value forms that go beyond the strictly pecuniary and situate people’s systematic disappearance as a central feature of regional power networks. The empirical data was collected during fieldwork in Mexico and Central America and collated with data published in recent reports (state and non-governmental) on migrants’ disappearance in Mexico. 

  European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe December, pp. 159-178  2020.

By Mahmoud A ElSohly , Chandrani G Majumdar , Suman Chandra , Mohammed M Radwan 

The prevalence of cannabis as the most commonly used illicit substance in the United States and around the globe is well-documented. Studies have highlighted a noticeable uptrend in the potency of cannabis in the United states. This report examines the concentration of cannabinoids in illicit cannabis samples seized by the United States Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) over the last 10 years (2013–2022).

Methods

Samples received during the course of study (2013–2022) were categorized based on the geographical region where collected, as Western Region, Midwest Region, Northeast Region, South East Region, Southern Region as well as Alaska and Hawaii. These samples were processed for analysis using a validated gas chromatography with flame ionization detector method.

Results

The data showed that the cannabinoids profile of all high Δ9-THC cannabis samples, regardless of the state or region from which the samples are seized or the state from which the sample is produced under a state medical marijuana program, is basically the same with the major cannabinoid being Δ9-THC (>10% for most samples) and all other cannabinoids with less than 0.5%, with the exception of CBG (<1%) and CBN (<1%).

Conclusion

Overall, it appears the cannabinoids profile is controlled by the genetics of the plant and is not affected much by the geographical location in which the plants are cultivated.

Front Public Health. 2024 Oct 3;12:1442522.

By María Calderón 

Mexican cartels represent a multifaceted and complex problem with significant implications for Mexico and the United States. These criminal organizations have long been a U.S. national security concern, which has become more severe with an increase of lethal drugs smuggled into the U.S., impacting millions of lives in North America. There are debates between governments and organizations on the most impactful way to combat these illicit groups. These have included the question of whether designating Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) would debilitate transnational criminal organizations and reduce the amount of drugs entering the United States. An FTO is a legal designation the United States government uses to identify foreign organizations that engage in premeditated, politically motivated acts of terrorism against noncombatant targets. Designating a group as an FTO carries legal and financial implications aimed at protecting national security. In the past, when Mexican cartels have harmed American citizens, members of Congress and other experts have been quick to propose an FTO designation for these organizations. However, designating a group as an FTO requires completing a specific and multi-faceted legal process and meeting certain criteria. The potential designation of Mexican cartels as FTOs is complex and contentious as it involves considering various implications, including security concerns, legal issues, and human rights impacts. This paper aims to explain the stages of an FTO designation and the roles of the various government stakeholders involved. Clarifying the complexities and technicalities of this process may prove beneficial when engaging in debates and weighing the potential impact of an eventual FTO designation for Mexican cartels.

Washington, DC:  Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, 2024. 16p.

By Merve Betül Gökçe, Murat Güray Kirdar:

This study investigates the impact of the Syrian civil war and refugee status on the risk of physical intimate partner violence (IPV) among Syrian women in Jordan, the country with the second-highest refugee-to-native ratio worldwide. We analyze data from the 2017-18 Jordan Population and Family Health Survey, which includes a nationally representative sample of Syrian refugees. Using the information on the timing of first violence after marriage within a discrete-time duration analysis, we examine the hazard rates of IPV exposure across different periods: prewar Syria, postwar Syria, and refugee status. Our findings demonstrate that war and refugee status increase the risk of IPV, and these findings persist for women who were married before the civil war. Additionally, the rise in IPV after the refugees' arrival in Jordan diminishes over time. The study identifies the economic strain resulting from lower household wealth and refugee husbands' employment losses as a driver of the rise in IPV. Moreover, our innovative approach utilizing GPS locations of refugee households to calculate refugee density reveals that greater social isolation, indicated by reduced proximity to other refugees, significantly exacerbates the risk of IPV among these women. In addition, we explore whether the civil war and refugee status alter marriage patterns, which could contribute to the observed effects on IPV. Both the civil war and forced migration lower the marriage age and increase the incidence of non-cousin marriages at the expense of cousin marriages—both of which are associated with a higher risk of IPV.

Bonn: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics, 2024. 61p.  

By Paulo J Murillo-Sandoval1, Steven E Sesnie2, Manuel Eduardo Ordoñez Armas3, Nicholas Magliocca4, Beth Tellman5, Jennifer A Devine6, Erik Nielsen7 and Kendra McSweeney8,*

We assess how much of Central America is likely to be agriculturally suitable for cultivating coca (Erythroxylum spp), the main ingredient in cocaine. Since 2017, organized criminal groups (not smallholders) have been establishing coca plantations in Central America for cocaine production. This has broken South America's long monopoly on coca leaf production for the global cocaine trade and raised concerns about future expansion in the isthmus. Yet it is not clear how much of Central America has suitable biophysical characteristics for a crop domesticated in, and long associated with the Andean region. We combine geo-located data from coca cultivation locations in Colombia with reported coca sites in Central America to model the soil, climate, and topography of Central American landscapes that might be suitable for coca production under standard management practices. We find that 47% of northern Central America (Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize) has biophysical characteristics that appear highly suitable for coca-growing, while most of southern Central America does not. Biophysical factors, then, are unlikely to constrain coca's spread in northern Central America. Whether or not the crop is more widely planted will depend on complex and multi-scalar social, economic, and political factors. Among them is whether Central American countries and their allies will continue to prioritize militarized approaches to the drug trade through coca eradication and drug interdiction, which are likely to induce further expansion, not contain it. Novel approaches to the drug trade will be required to avert this outcome.

Environ. Res. Lett. 19 (2024) 104068