By Ye Liu, Michael Siegel, Bisakha Sen 

Introduction: Firearm injury is a major U.S. public health concern. This study aims to evaluate whether the relationship between state firearm laws and state firearm deaths are affected by comparatively lenient firearm laws in neighboring states.

Methods: This observational study used 2000‒2017 data on firearm deaths and firearm laws of the 48 contiguous states of the U.S. (Alaska, Hawaii, and the District of Columbia excluded). The associations among state firearm deaths, state firearm laws, and presence of neighboring states with more lenient laws were analyzed using negative binomial regression models with state- and year-fixed effects. Analyses were conducted in 2019‒2020.

Results: There were 578,022 firearm deaths of all intents during the study period or 11.1 firearm deaths (IQR=8.5-14.0) per 100,000 population. The presence of more state firearm laws was associated with decreased firearm deaths (incident rate ratio=0.991, 95% CI=0.987, 0.996). However, weaker firearm laws in neighboring states correlated with more firearm deaths within a state (incident rate ratio=1.016, 95% CI=1.004, 1.028). Failing to account for weaker laws in neighboring states led to the underestimation of the impact of 1 additional law on state's own firearm deaths (incident rate ratio=0.994, 95% CI=0.989, 0.998 vs 0.991, 95% CI=0.987, 0.996) by approximately 20%.

American Journal of Preventive Medicine: 59(5): 648-657, 2020.

By Ned Levine, Bindi Naik-Mathuria, Cary Cain, Lisa Pompeii, Abiodun Oluyomi

Although the media tends to focus on homicides when it comes to firearm violence, and mass shootings in particular, the reality of the public health crisis is more complicated and widespread than many realize. Gun killings are of course tragic, but nonfatal firearm violence can also severely injure victims, leaving them physically debilitated or psychologically damaged for years on end. The family and friends of the victims are often left traumatized as well. But the risks from firearms are even more extensive, involving the psychological costs, since the vast majority of firearm crimes do not involve deaths or injuries.

In the greater Houston area, firearm violence presents various dangers for the public. This report illustrates the scope of the problem by examining firearm incidents occurring in Harris County, Texas, between 2018 and 2021. The incidents were identified using the databases of the four largest law enforcement jurisdictions in Harris County — the Houston, Pasadena, and Baytown police departments and the Harris County Sheriff’s Office — and cover the vast majority of incidents in the county. From this data, we were able to identify trends in the region’s homicide rates, the distribution of firearm incidents by severity, and firearm incident “hot spots”. Ultimately, the findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach for reducing gun violence in our society.

Houston: Rice University, Baker Institute for Public Policy, 2023. 12p.

By Kathleen Grene, Amani Dharani and Michael Siegel

•   Background While gun owners are frequently surveyed, we are not aware of any study that has examined principles held by gun owners that underlie their gun policy opinions, or their opinions about specific provisions of each policy. To fnd the common ground between gun owners and non-gun owners, this paper aims to answer the following: (1) What underlying principles affects gun owner support for gun policies; (2) how do gun owners’ attitudes change depending on the specific provisions within these policies? Methods In May 2022, a survey was administered by NORC at the University of Chicago and completed by adult gun owners (n=1078) online or by phone. Statistical analyses were performed using STATA. The survey used a 5-point Likert scale to evaluate gun owners’ principles and attitudes toward frearm regulation, such as red fag laws, and possible provisions to these policies. Focus groups and interviews were conducted with 96 adult gun owners and non-gun owners to further clarify points in the survey for the former and to ascertain support for the same policies and their potential provisions for the latter. Results The principle that gun owners identified with the most concerned keeping guns out of the hands of those with an increased risk for violence. There was significant overlap among gun owners and non-gun owners on policy support, especially with this central theme that those with a history of violence should be prevented from accessing a firearm. The degree of support for policies was different depending on what provisions were said to be included in the policy. For example, the degree of support for universal background checks ranged from 19.9 to 78.4% depending on the details of the legislation. Conclusion This research demonstrates common ground between gun owners and non-gun owners: It informs the gun safety policy community about gun owners’ views and principles on gun safety policy and which policy provisions impact their support for a given law. This paper suggests that an effective, mutually agreed upon gun safety policy is possible. 

  Injury Epidemiology (2023) 10:21   

By Daniel Semenza and Richard Stansfield

America is entrenched in an ongoing epidemic of gun violence. During the COVID-19 pandemic, homicides and nonfatal shootings spiked, reaching unprecedented levels in many US cities. Gun violence remains exceptionally high around the country, although there is evidence that homicides are beginning to decrease in cities like Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Minneapolis. Generally, the US has a homicide rate roughly 25 times higher than most peer industrialized countries and contains about 40 percent of the global stock of civilian firearms. Almost all of the firearms that end up on the streets are first sold through legally appointed federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) following manufacture or import. Given the unique ease of access to firearms in the US, there is a growing sense of urgency to better understand how crime guns are acquired and from where they originate to support much stronger supply-side efforts to address gun violence.

Prior research has focused extensively on the large “secondary market” for firearms, where guns are transferred between unlicensed persons or to those legally prohibited from buying a firearm. Most guns used in a crime are illegally acquired through secondary market channels via small-scale purchases, middlemen, and “fences” that supply weapons to local illicit markets. In contrast, the focus of our recent work has been on the “primary market,” which includes the legal retail sale of firearms from federally licensed firearm dealers (FFLs) to private consumers. The primary market directly feeds the illicit secondary market for firearms.

Albany, NY: Rockefeller Institute of Government, 2023. 26p.

By United States. Federal Bureau Of Investigation

From the document: "In 2013, the president signed into law the Investigative Assistance for Violent Crimes Act of 2012, which led the FBI to examine active shooter incidents since 2000. The findings in this report are intended to provide an overview of active shooter incidents to help law enforcement, other first responders, and the public better understand the levels of threats associated with active shooter incidents. In 2022, the FBI designated 50 shootings as active shooter incidents. Although incidents decreased by 18% from 2021 (61 incidents), the number of active shooter incidents increased by 66.7% compared to 2018 (30 incidents). The 50 active shooter incidents in 2022 occurred in 25 states and the District of Columbia and represent seven location categories, including open spaces, commerce, residences, education, government, houses of worship, and a health care facility. [...] Data cited in this report for active shooter incidents that occurred in 2022 is valid as of February 10, 2023; however, incident data from prior published reports was not updated. If additional incidents meeting FBI criteria are identified after the publication of this document, every effort will be made to factor those incidents into future reporting."

United States. Federal Bureau of Investigation. 2023. 33p.

By United States. Bureau Of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, And Explosives

From the Introduction: "The National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA) is a comprehensive examination of commerce in firearms in the United States and the diversion of firearms to illegal markets. Produced by a team comprised of ATF [Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives] subject-matter experts, academics from a variety of disciplines specializing in research relating to firearms, and other law enforcement professionals, the NFCTA is designed to provide the public, researchers, and policymakers with analysis of data lawfully collected by ATF as part of its regulatory and law enforcement missions to inform the dialogue on firearm law and policy. To ensure comprehensive analysis, the NFCTA is being produced in several volumes. In May 2022, ATF published Volume I, 'Firearms in Commerce'. [...] ATF routinely generates bulletins for law enforcement and industry, and issues public safety advisories for all citizens. This Volume of the NFCTA, however, represents the first comprehensive report incorporating crime gun information from the full range of sources used by ATF in more than twenty years. Advancements in ballistic analytical technology and information processing during this period have enhanced ATF's capacity to support law enforcement efforts to identify, investigate, and prosecute those who use firearms to commit violent offenses and the traffickers who illegally divert those crime guns to criminals. Volume II describes in detail the sources of information that constitute CGI [Crime Gun Intelligence], and how CGI is leveraged to promote effective investigation of firearm-related violence. Finally, the information and analysis in NFCTA Volumes I and II set the foundation for the subject that will be addressed in Volume III, 'Firearms Trafficking.'"

Washington DC. United States. Bureau Of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, And Explosives. 2023. 9p.

BY National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN

In 1997, ATF initiated the National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) program. Through this program, ATF provided for the first time comprehensive national automated ballistic imaging services to local, state, territorial, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies across the country. NIBIN technology captures images of ballistic evidence, including cartridge casings1 recovered in shooting investigations (also referred to as “casings”) and test-fired cartridge casings2 from recovered crime guns (also referred to as “test-fires”), and stores those images in the NIBIN national database that conducts automated analysis for further review by expert technicians. Since 1997, law enforcement agencies have been submitting recovered ballistic evidence to ATF for entry into the NIBIN system, building a national and robust network of ballistic data. As of December 2021, approximately 5.2 million pieces of ballistic evidence have been entered into the system.

Washington D.C. ATF. 2021. 19p.

By The ATF National Tracing Center (NTC) and ATF International Affairs Division (IAD)

ATF and IAD cooperate with international law enforcement partners to disrupt transnational firearms trafficking and reduce violent gun crime in other countries. A central component of this effort is the use of ATF’s eTrace system to provide information on crime guns recovered and submitted for tracing by LEAs in foreign countries. Between 2017 and 2021, ATF received trace requests from an average of 75 countries involving approximately 33,000 crime gun trace requests on an annual basis. ATF continuously works to improve the tracing of crime guns recovered in other countries by completing formal tracing agreements with new international law enforcement partners and training them on the appropriate use of the eTrace system. As of 2021, ATF had eTrace Memorandum of Understandings (MOUs) with LEAs in 47 countries, representing 1,843 eTrace user accounts. To improve accessibility, Spanish language eTrace is available and currently used by law enforcement agencies in Mexico and other Central and South American countries.

The ATF National Tracing Center (NTC) and ATF International Affairs Division (IAD). 2021. 27p.

By Smart, Rosanna; Morral, Andrew R.; Ramchand, Rajeev; Charbonneau, Amanda K.; Williams, Jhacova; Smucker, Sierra; Cherney, Samantha; Xenakis, Lea

3rd. Edition. From the Webpage: "In this report, part of the RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers seek objective information about what scientific literature reveals about the likely effects of various gun laws. In the third edition of this report, the authors incorporate more-recent research in their synthesis of the available scientific data regarding the effects of 18 state firearm policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, suicides, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas in which more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies."

RAND Corporation. 2023. 104p.

By Alathari, Lina; Drysdale, Diana; Driscoll, Steven; Carlock, Arna L.; Cutler, Meagan; Besser, Jason

From the Executive Summary: "As law enforcement agencies, workplaces, and other community organizations implement behavioral threat assessment programs, the approach should be guided by the research findings contained in this report. When conducted properly, a behavioral threat assessment will involve promoting bystander reporting to identify warning signs of potential violence, systematically gathering information about the circumstances and behaviors of concern, assessing the possibility of violence as an outcome, and implementing preventive management strategies to make positive and safe outcomes more likely. The 173 attacks contained in this report impacted a variety of locations, 'including businesses/workplaces, schools, houses of worship, military bases, nonprofit service providers, residential complexes, public transportation, and open spaces'. In many cases, the attacker had a known affiliation with the site of the attack. The analysis is intended to provide critical information to a cross-sector of community organizations that have a role in preventing these types of tragedies."

Washington. US. United States. Secret Service. National Threat Assessment Center. 2023. 70p.

By Wang-Sheng Lee and Sandy Suardi

The 1996-97 National Firearms Agreement (NFA) in Australia introduced strict gun laws, primarily as a reaction to the mass shooting in Port Arthur, Tasmania in 1996, where 35 people were killed. Despite the fact that several researchers using the same data have examined the impact of the NFA on firearm deaths, a consensus does not appear to have been reached. In this paper, we re-analyze the same data on firearm deaths used in previous research, using tests for unknown structural breaks as a means to identifying impacts of the NFA. The results of these tests suggest that the NFA did not have any large effects on reducing firearm homicide or suicide rates.

Melbourne. University of Melbourne. Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series Working Paper No. 17/08. 2008. 29p.

By Elizabeth P. Shulman, Jordan Beardslee, Adam Fine, Paul J. Frick, Laurence Steinberg & Elizabeth Cauffman

  Objective: To examine whether at-risk male youth experience increases in anxiety, depressive symptoms, and aggression during years when they are exposed to gun violence, adjusting for relevant covariates. Method: Participants were 1,216 male, justice-involved adolescents who were recently arrested for the first time for a moderate offense. They were interviewed 9 times over 5 years. Fixed effects (withinindividual) regression models were used to estimate concurrent associations between exposure to gun violence and three outcomes: depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and aggression (both overall and separately for proactive and reactive aggression). The reverse direction (anxiety, depressive symptoms, and aggression predicting gun violence exposure) was also modeled. Results: After controlling for covariates, exposure to gun violence was significantly associated with increases in reactive aggression and, to a lesser extent, increases in proactive aggression. In addition, gun violence exposure was associated with increased anxiety but not depressive symptoms. We found no support for the reverse direction. Conclusions: At-risk males experienced significant increases in anxiety and aggression (particularly reactive aggression) during years when they are exposed to gun violence, even after accounting for several potential confounding factors. The greater impact on reactive aggression suggests that exposure to gun violence may affect self-regulation and/or social information processing. The analyses shed light on the less-visible damage wrought by gun violence and underscore the importance of mental health screening and treatment for youth who have been exposed to violence – especially gun violence – both to assist individual youths and to disrupt cycles of violence.  

Journal of Clinical Child & Adolescent Psychology, 50:3, 353-366, 2021.,

By Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium

As the 2021-22 academic year came to a close, the United States was rocked by the news of another school mass shooting, this time at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas. Nineteen fourth-grade students and two of their teachers were killed when an 18-year-old former student entered the school through an unlocked door, made his way to his former fourth-grade classroom, and opened fire during a 77-minute rampage. Seventeen others were injured in the attack. The tragedy in Uvalde conjured up memories of the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut. Nearly 10 years earlier, 20 first-grade students and six of their educators, including the school’s principal, were killed after a 20-year-old shot his way into the building. Two others were injured during the six-minute attack.

In the aftermath of the shooting in Uvalde, administrators and policymakers struggled to implement policies and procedures that would prevent a similar attack in their schools or minimize the loss of life if one did occur. These included, but were not limited to, increases in the numbers and presence of school resource officers, authorization to arm teachers, and even supplying schools with ballistics shields, despite the lack of evidence to suggest these measures would achieve their intended goals in situations like Uvalde. Amid growing fear and apprehension about another Sandy Hook or Uvalde happening and the proliferation of purported school safety measures, two questions occupy the minds of many: Are schools a safe place for children to be? And what actually works to make them safer?

• More

  As policymakers, school administrators, and other vested stakeholders continue to grapple with these questions, it is critical to plan for every instance of firearm violence on school grounds. In doing so, it is important to implement strategies that are based in research where evidence supports their efficacy in achieving prevention and/or harm mitigation. At the same time, it is imperative to consider not only the short-term effects but also longer-term impacts of both gun violence and the associated strategies for prevention and response on students. Researchers will be key in cultivating this evidence and must continue to work closely with policymakers, school administrators, and the public to protect children from the harmful effects of gun violence.

Albany, NY: Rockefeller Institute of Government, 2022. 64p.

By Alexander D. McCourt,  Cassandra K. Crifasi, Elizabeth A. Stuart, Jon S. Vernick, Rose M. C.Kagawa, Garen J. Wintemute and Daniel W. Webster

Objectives. To estimate and compare the effects of state background check policies on firearm-related mortality in 4 US states. Methods. Annual data from 1985 to 2017 were used to examine Maryland and Pennsylvania, which implemented point-of-sale comprehensive background check (CBC)laws for handgun purchasers ; Connecticut. which adopted a handgun purchaser licensing law; and Missouri, which repealed a similar law. Using synthetic control methods, we estimated the effects of these laws on homicide and suicide rates stratified by firearm involvement. Results. There was no consistent relationship between CBC laws and mortality rates. There we re-estimated decreases in firearm homicide (27.8%) and firearm suicide (23.2%–40.5%) rates associated with Connecticut’s law. There were estimated increases in firearm homicide (47.3%), non-firearm homicide (18.1%), and firearm suicide (23.5%)rates associated with Missouri’s repeal. Conclusions. Purchaser licensing laws coupled with CBC requirements were consistently associated with lower firearm homicide and suicide rates, but CBC laws alone were not. Public Health Implications. Our results contribute to a body of research showing tha tCBC laws are not associated with reductions in firearm-related deaths unless they are coupled with handgun purchaser licensing laws. 

American  Journal of   Public Health.2020;110:1546–1552. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305822

By Michael Siegel

In 2017, there were 14,542 firearm-related homicide deaths in the United States. Despite constituting only 13% of the U.S. population, Black persons made up 59% of these victims. Many states have addressed the problem of firearm-related homicide by enacting stronger firearm laws. While many studies have already been conducted on the effectiveness of various firearm laws in reducing overall population homicide rates, the vast majority of these studies do not distinguish between victims of different races/ethnicity. In failing to do so, these studies assume that state-level firearm laws produce homogeneous effects, even while Black communities continue to bear the undue burden of firearm violence. The purpose of this research was to fill this critical gap by rigorously evaluating the differential impact of state-level firearm laws on homicide rates among White, Black, and Hispanic populations. This project sought to answer two major research questions: (1) Is there heterogeneity in the effect of different state firearm laws on homicide rates by race/ethnicity? (2) To what extent are any differences in the impact of firearm laws by race/ethnicity explained by contextual differences in homicide victimization across urban vs. non-urban settings, as opposed to differences among racial groups per se?

Report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2020. 13p.

By The Philadelphia Interagency Research and Public Safety Collaborative (PIRPSC)

Firearm violence in Philadelphia is a public health crisis. In 2021, Philadelphia suffered a record number of fatal criminal shooting victims (501) and non-fatal criminal shooting victims (1,850). Philadelphia has also experienced extraordinary recent increases in arrests for illegal firearm possession and crime guns recovered, while the Commonwealth has recorded record gun sales in 2020. Despite this crisis in gun violence, shooting arrest rates remain low, conviction rates in illegal gun possession cases have been declining since 2015, and conviction rates in shooting cases declined between 2015 and 2019 and increased modestly in 2020 and 2021.

Firearm violence in Philadelphia is a racial justice crisis. Shootings disproportionately impact Black communities: in Philadelphia over 80% of shooting victims and 79% of arrestees have been Black since 2015. Both victims and arrestees overwhelmingly come from disadvantaged neighborhoods that are majority non-white, have high rates of poverty and unemployment, and less likely to have a high school degree or diploma. Endemic violence in these communities means that the vast majority of those arrested for gun violence have themselves been previously traumatized, often as a witness to previous violent acts; over 80% have previously accessed or been screened for behavioral health services through the City. Because the causes of gun violence are complex and varied, so are the solutions. Addressing the gun violence crisis requires a comprehensive strategy with elements of enforcement, intervention, and prevention to achieve both short-term and long-term reductions in gun crimes. Collaboration among city agencies, including law enforcement and non-law enforcement agencies is critical to successfully implement such a comprehensive strategy. Reviews of evidence-based practices, along with data analysis of local data, have helped us to come to key findings related to gun violence in Philadelphia and have informed recommendations to stem that violence. Readers are encouraged to read both the summary, below, as well as the report in its entirety to understand the context of our recommendations as well as the limitations in both our data and data analyses. 

Philadelphia: Philadelphia Interagency Research and Public Safety Collaborative (PIRPSC)    2022. 196p.  

By Giffords Law Center

The United States accounts for just 4% of the global population but a startling 25% of the world’s prisoners. The mass incarceration crisis that is bloating our nation’s prisons disproportionately affects Black and Brown Americans, tearing apart families and communities—often because of crimes that didn’t involve violence. Data has shown that this “tough on crime” mentality doesn’t actually reduce crime or enhance public safety. While the public is increasingly aware of the harmful impact of failed policies like the war on drugs, a lesser-known yet still significant driver of mass incarceration is the criminal legal system’s response to nonviolent illegal gun possession. Tens of thousands of Americans are arrested and incarcerated each year on nonviolent weapon possession charges. Given that the majority of violent crime in any city is driven by a very small percentage of individuals, we can improve public safety and reduce mass incarceration by rethinking our approach to nonviolent gun possession. This report explores prosecutor-led diversion programs and makes the case for expanding this promising alternative to incarceration.

Washington, DC: Giffords Law Center, 2021. 3 p,

By Rosanna Smart, Andrew R. Morral, Sierra Smucker, Samantha Cherney, Terry L. Schell

In this report, part of the RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative, researchers seek objective information about what the scientific literature reveals about the likely effects of various gun laws. In this second edition of an earlier work, the authors add five gun policies to the 13 examined in the original analysis and expand the study time frame to incorporate a larger body of research. With those adjustments, the authors synthesize the available scientific data on the effects of 18 policies on firearm deaths, violent crime, the gun industry, defensive gun use, and other outcomes. By highlighting where scientific evidence is accumulating, the authors hope to build consensus around a shared set of facts that have been established through a transparent, nonpartisan, and impartial review process. In so doing, they also illuminate areas where more and better information could make important contributions to establishing fair and effective gun policies.

Monterey CA: RAND, 2020. 412p.

 By Michael Siegel, Kathleen Grene and Amani Dharani 

  Gun violence continues to be a major persistent problem in the United States. According to recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S. firearm homicide and suicide rates increased by more than 8% from 2020 to 2021. Approximately 47,000 gun-related deaths occurred in 2021,of which more than 21,000 were homicides. This fall we sought to examine whether there existed a new path on gun safety issues to reduce this high rate of gun violence and death. In Part One, released last month the research identified common ground between gun owners and non-gun owners based on the principle that gun safety policies should keep guns out of the hands of violent criminals. This report “Finding the Common Ground in Gun Safety: Part 2,” built off that common ground by identifying a new package of policies ensuring people at high risk for violence cannot access guns while protecting law-abiding gun owners' Second Amendment rights. This new research and overall package of policies comes at a critical juncture for gun safety issues in the United States. The Supreme Court’s 2022 decision in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen opened the door for courts to potentially strike down “may issue” laws which give law enforcement wide discretion in evaluating permit applications. May issue laws in eight other states are at risk. At the same time recent legislative action at the federal level has shown that gun safety laws are no longer a third rail in American politics and that common ground exists. The “Bipartisan Safer Communities Act” expanded background checks provided funding for red flag laws and strengthened prohibitions on domestic abusers and passed with bipartisan support in both chambers of Congress. However key loopholes in regulation still exist that allow people who are at high risk of violence the ability to access guns. Against this backdrop and informed from the findings from Part One this study identifies gun safety policies that are effective, grounded in shared principles, and respect the rights of law-abiding gun owners. Together with Part One the overall research package identifies a new path forward for gun safety policies that can help save lives and meaningfully reduce gun violence in this country,

97 Percent, 2022. 35p.

By Michael Siegel, Kathleen Grene and Amani Dharani 

Gun violence is a serious problem in the United States. In 2021, there were approximately 47,000 gun-related deaths in the U.S., of which more than 21,000 were firearm homicides. Yet amid this clear and persistent problem, our institutions continue to grapple with how to address gun violence. The Supreme Court in the 2008 decision Heller v. District of Columbia established the constitutional right to keep a handgun in the home for self-defense. More than a decade later, this past June, the Court recognized the right to carry a handgun outside the home for self-defense, opening up new challenges to restrictions on who can carry firearms and where. In the same week, Congress passed the most significant gun safety legislation in nearly three decades, with the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act expanding background checks, providing funding for red flag laws, and strengthening prohibitions on domestic abusers. Against this push and pull, the perception of an intractable divide on gun policy – especially between gun owners and non-gun owners – persists. Yet as our previous research has demonstrated, there is a high level of support among gun owners for a number of gun violence prevention policies.  

97 Percent, 2022. 34p.