By Summer Walker I Mariana Botero Restrepo

The relationship between illicit economies, conflict and instability has been long debated in academic and practitioner circles, and part of the international policy agenda for some time. From the diamond trade in Sierra Leone to the heroin trade in Afghanistan, illicit economies have been shown to fund insurgencies and political actors, and to contribute to ongoing conflict.

The GI-TOC’s 2021 Global Organized Crime Index shows that of the ten highest-scoring countries for criminality, meaning those with the most pervasive criminal markets and influential criminal actors, the overwhelming majority are countries experiencing conflict or fragility.

This report considers three case studies at different stages of armed conflict to assess the dynamic relationship between criminal networks, illicit economies, and conflict actors and conditions. These three case studies offer unique perspectives in terms of duration, size of the conflict area and stage of the conflict:

• Armed insurgency in northern Mozambique

• Armed groups in Libya and Mali

• Armed groups in Colombia

While these conflicts present three distinct cases, they also share relevant similarities. In these cases, unrest is created after an armed group or groups counter the legitimacy of the state. The national response to the conflict is supplemented with regional and international responses. All situations lack a swift resolution, and the instability persists primarily in areas outside capitals, even after formal conflict resolution. In this way, these three cases are representative of sustained, localized instability deriving from armed conflict between the state and non-state armed groups.

All three conflict areas overlap with areas of established illicit economies. In these settings, the connections between armed conflict and illicit markets evolve over time. The impacts may be commodity-dependent, with different considerations for illegal mining as opposed to trafficked drugs. Illicit markets change over time, as do the power brokers and beneficiaries involved. Illicit economies contribute to long-term enabling environments for instability by prolonging conflict and eroding government responses to conflict. Through the case studies of northern Mozambique, the Sahel region and Colombia, this report identifies ten dynamics that influence illicit economies and conflict situations. These findings make a contribution to vital policy discussions for stabilization and conflict mediation in these – and other – re

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime., 2022. 74p.

By Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime

Before February 2022, Russian and Ukrainian organized crime formed the strongest criminal ecosystem in Europe. Having developed along similar lines in the 1990s, Russian and Ukrainian criminal groups and networks controlled a lucrative transnational smuggling highway between Russia and Western Europe that carried gold, timber, tobacco, coal, counterfeit/untaxed goods, humans and drugs. At the more politically connected end of the spectrum, corrupt officials and criminal bosses from both countries exploited Ukraine’s role as a transit country for Russian gas to siphon off millions of dollars, while Ukraine’s oligarch class exerted a strong grip over the country’s economic, political and information spheres.

Kyiv made serious efforts to tackle organized crime and corruption after the 2014 Maidan Revolution but results were mixed, especially in the case of judicial reform; meanwhile, the conflict in the Donbas region helped bolster an array of illicit economies and criminal actors. For organized crime, business was generally good.

The Russian invasion has inflicted a profound shock to this ecosystem. With the war, collaboration between Russian and Ukrainian organized crime interests became impossible due to the political situation (which led many criminals to break such ties) and the pragmatic challenge of smuggling across what was now a violently contested and dynamic front line. Many Ukrainian crime bosses chose to leave the country, as did many oligarchs, including several accused of pro-Russian sympathies. Martial law and the curfew also initially constrained criminal activity. According to senior sources in the Ukrainian police, incidents of armed robberies declined by a factor of between three and four, and the homicide rate dropped to almost zero at the beginning of the war (although this may partly reflect the impact of the war on reporting in the early days of the war). It may be that the impact of the invasion also whittled out some less robust and resilient organized crime groups: according to data from the general prosecutor’s office, the number of organized crime groups under investigation decreased from 499 in 2021 to 395 in 2022 (although this decline alternatively could reflect dimished investigative capacity).

This report explores the changing dynamics in the political economy of Ukrainian organized crime up till December 2022 and maps how the criminal landscape has adapted to the new situation. Given the complexity of the impact of the war in Ukraine on organized crime in both parties to the conflict, the GI-TOC is producing two reports. This report concentrates on developments within Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders – with the exception of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk ‘people’s republics’ (LDNR) in the Donbas region, which broke away from Kyiv in 2014 with Russian backing and assistance, and Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed the same year. The impact of the conflict on organized crime in these areas and on Russian organized crime more generally will be discussed in a separate report, which will assess trends in sanctions busting and money laundering, changes in trafficking flows east of Ukraine and how Russian organized crime groups have responded to the conflict.

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2023. 60p.

By Julia Stanyard | Thierry Vircoulon | Julian Rademeyer

Russia has rapidly increased its engagement in Africa in recent years, both politically and economically, as it seeks to expand its influence on the continent. However, Russia’s activities in Africa are subject to controversy. Our new report sheds light on the Wagner Group, a private military company rapidly becoming the most effective form of Russian engagement in Africa.

The group comprises a network of political influence operations and economic entities such as mining companies. It has been accused of using whatever means necessary to achieve its aims, including criminal activity. The US government recently designated Wagner as a ‘transnational criminal organization,’ allowing for broader sanctions against Wagner and its enablers.

The report argues that the Wagner Group is unique as an organization in the breadth, scale, and boldness of its activities. However, the study also shows that Wagner did not emerge in a vacuum: The group’s activities and characteristics reflect broader trends in the evolution of Russia’s oligarchs and organized crime groups, their respective relationships with the Russian state, and their activities in Africa.

By focusing on case studies in several African countries, the report helps to shed light on the complex dynamics between Russia, its oligarchs, and its criminal networks and how they interact with African governments, businesses, and populations. This report draws on research conducted since July 2022, as well as other sources from across the continent, providing a comprehensive overview of the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa. The report provides important insights into the evolving relationship between Russia and Africa and how this is shaping politics and economics on the continent, serving as a resource for journalists, policymakers, and researchers seeking to understand the complex dynamics of Russian engagement in Africa.

Center for the Study of Democracy; Global Initiative Against Organized Crime, 2023.92p.

By Irwin, Véronique; Wang, Ke; Cui, Jiashan; Thompson, Alexandra (Statistician)

From the document: "'Report on Indicators of School Crime and Safety: 2022' provides the most recent national indicators on school crime and safety. The information presented in this report serves as a reference for policymakers and practitioners so that they can develop effective programs and policies aimed at violence and school crime prevention. Accurate information about the nature, extent, and scope of the problem being addressed is essential for developing effective programs and policies. This is the 25th edition of Indicators of School Crime and Safety, a joint effort of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) and the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). This report provides summary statistics to inform the nation about current aspects of crime and safety in schools. 'Report on Indicators of School Crime and Safety' includes the most recent available data at the time of its development, compiled from a number of statistical data sources supported by the federal government. Such sources include results from the School-Associated Violent Death Surveillance System, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education, the U.S. Department of Justice, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC); the National Vital Statistics System, sponsored by CDC; the School Shooting Safety Compendium, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense; the Studies of Active Shooter Incidents, sponsored by the Federal Bureau of Investigation; the National Crime Victimization Survey and School Crime Supplement to that survey, sponsored by BJS and NCES, respectively; the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, sponsored by CDC; the School Survey on Crime and Safety, Fast Response Survey System, ED'Facts', and National Teacher and Principal Survey, all sponsored by NCES; and the Campus Safety and Security Survey, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education. Some of these data are collected annually, while others are collected less frequently."

Washington D.D. National Center For Education Statistics; United States. Bureau Of Justice Statistics. 2023.. 38p.

Edited by Danilo Antonio Baltieri

This book covers some recent researches on the interface between drug misuse and crime and demonstrates that some types of violent crimes are more intimately related to alcohol and / or drug consumption. It is written for researchers, health and law professionals engaged in the evaluation, management and treatment of different types of offenders. It is organized by a number of phenomena that are known (or supposed) to link drugs and crime. This book shows that the application of punishment under the guise of deterrence, despite its ineffectiveness, is frequently preferred to a more adequate management for some types of offenders. This book provides ten manuscripts that describe different aspects of the relationship between drugs and crimes, always focusing on Brazilian reality. It shows that a partnership between specialized mental health professionals, lawyers and policy makers is urgent with respect to this subject in Brazil and other countries.

Bentham Books, 2009. 100p.

By Alejandro Melgoza and Alex Papadovassilakis

We traveled over 300 kilometers through a trio of nature reserves to document how illegal loggers have ravaged some of the region’s most biodiverse forests and to chronicle the unlikely story of a small group of park rangers fighting back. This investigation, which used video and other multimedia elements to explain this complex criminal economy, is our most in-depth exploration of environmental crime yet..

Washington, DC: InSight Crime, 2022. 38p.

By Gary Sweeten and Matthew Larson

This report describes a project that had the main goal of developing a broad, nationally representative understanding of how often statutory rape occurs in the U.S., who the victims and perpetrators are, how self-reported estimates compare to estimates from law enforcement data, and whether short- and/or long-term consequences exist and if they do, what the consequences might be. In order to accomplish that goal, the project had four specific objectives: to estimate nationally representative rates of statutory rape victimization and perpetration using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97); to assess situational differences between first sexual experiences that are statutory rape compared to those that are not; to estimate the likelihood of women’s statutory rape victimization being reported to police, using data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS); and to assess the short- and long-term consequences of statutory rape victimization, based on the nature and characteristics of relationships as well as on the age differences between victims and perpetrators. The authors provide a breakdown of their research design, methods, analytical and data analysis techniques, results and findings for the four objectives, research limitations, artifacts, datasets generated, and dissemination activities.

Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice Research and Evaluation on Violence Against Women, 2023. 57p.

By Katherine A. Fowler, Rachel A. Leavitt, Carter J. Betz, Keming Yuan & Linda L. Dahlberg

Multi-victim homicides are a persistent public health problem confronting the United States. Previous research shows that homicide rates in the U.S. are approximately seven times higher than those of other high-income countries, driven by firearm homicide rates that are 25 times higher; 31% of public mass shootings in the world also occur in the U.S.. The purpose of this analysis is to examine the characteristics of mass, multiple, and single homicides to help identify prevention points that may lead to a reduction in different types of homicides.

We used all available years (2003–2017) and U.S. states/jurisdictions (35 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico) included in CDC’s National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS), a public health surveillance system which combines death certificate, coroner/medical examiner, and law enforcement reports into victim- and incident-level data on violent deaths. NVDRS includes up to 600 standard variables per incident; further information on types of mental illness among suspected perpetrators and incident resolution was qualitatively coded from case narratives. Data regarding number of persons nonfatally shot within incidents were cross-validated when possible with several other resources, including government reports and the Gun Violence Archive. Mass homicides (4+ victims), multiple homicides (2-3 victims) and single homicides were analyzed to assess group differences using Chi-square tests with Bonferroni-corrected post-hoc comparisons.

Results: Mass homicides more often had female, child, and non-Hispanic white victims than other homicide types. Compared with victims of other homicide types, victims of mass homicides were more often killed by strangers or someone else they did not know well, or by family members. More than a third were related to intimate partner violence. Approximately one-third of mass homicide perpetrators had suicidal thoughts/behaviors noted in the time leading up to the incident. Multi-victim homicides were more often perpetrated with semi-automatic firearms than single homicides. When accounting for non-fatally shot victims, over 4 times as many incidents could have resulted in mass homicide.

Conclusions: These findings underscore the important interconnections among multiple forms of violence. Primary prevention strategies addressing shared risk and protective factors are key to reducing these incidents.

Injury Epidemiology (2021) 8:49

By Robert A. Roks & James A. Densley

Based on ethnographic fieldwork and a content analysis of secondary sources, the current study presents an in-depth case study of gang evolution. We chart the history and development of the Dutch Crips, from playgroup origins in the 1980s to criminal endeavors in the 1990s, to its rebirth as an Outlaw Motorcycle Gang in the 2000s. At each evolutionary stage, we examine the identity of the group, its organization, the nature of its criminal activities, and branding. We highlight how, over 30 years, the Crips constantly reinvented themselves to meet their members’ age-defined needs and to attract future generations to the group.

April 2020 Deviant Behavior 41(4):525–542

By Ken Opala

Despite the August 2022 elections proceeding relatively smoothly, there is still a clear nexus between politics and crime in the country.

Election violence remains a major problem in Kenya despite attempts by the state and other actors to tackle it. Ahead of the country’s fifth general election, held on 9 August 2022, state agencies, the media and civil society predicted the re-emergence of gangs and militias keen to influence its outcome. Although the elections went off relatively smoothly there is still a clear nexus between politics and crime.

ENACT-Africa, 2023. 24p.

USED BOOK. MAY CONTAIN MARK-UP

By Luke Harding

FROM THE FOREWORD: “Edward Snowden is one of the most extraordinary whistleblowers in history. Never before has anyone scooped up en masse the top-secret files of the world's most powerful intelligence organisations, in order to make them public. But that was what he did. His skills are unprecedented. Until the present generation of computer nerds came along, no one realised it was possible to make off with the electronic equivalent of whole libraries full of triple-locked filing cabinets and safes - thousands of documents and millions of words. His motives are remarkable. Snowden set out to expose the true behaviour of the US National Security Agency and its allies. On present evidence, he has no interest in money - although he could have sold his documents to foreign intelligence services for many, many millions….”

NY. Vingtage. 2014. 350p.

By R.J. Mather

USAID Wildlife Asia aims to document and understand the current state of wildlife trafficking in Southeast Asia and China through the compilation of secondary information on enforcement actions. USAID Wildlife Asia regularly reviews available information on the trade in elephant, rhinoceros, pangolin and tiger parts and products in target countries, and develops various analyses and recommendations based on this information. This Counter Wildlife Trafficking (CWT) Digest: Southeast Asia and China covers the period January 2017 to December 2017. It is the first in what is expected to be an on-going series, updated every six months. The recommendations provided herein target the broader CWT community and focus on increased government commitment and political will, improved law enforcement, and legal and policy reform processes.

Bangkok: United States Agency for International Development (USAID), March 2018. 39p.

By USAID Wildlife Asia

The USAID Wildlife Asia Activity is a five-year, $24.5 million, regional counter wildlife trafficking initiative addressing the trafficking of pangolins, rhinos, elephants and tigers in Southeast Asia and China. USAID Wildlife Asia regularly updates documentation of the current state of wildlife trafficking of these species through a compilation of secondary sources to report on and analyze trends and changes in patterns of trade. The Activity also provides an evidence base to support decision-making about priority interventions in policy, law enforcement and consumer-demand reduction. This Counter Wildlife Trafficking Digest: Southeast Asia and China, Issue II, covers the period January to December 2018 and is the second issue in the series. The report is based on a compilation of documentation, news articles and reports that are readily available and in the English language only. It is possible that data are missing as a result; therefore, USAID Wildlife Asia does not assume these figures provide a complete data set. The recommendations provided target not only USAID Wildlife Asia directly but also the broader counter wildlife trafficking community and include a focus on social behavior change, improved law enforcement, increased government commitment and political will and effective regional coordination.

Bangkok: USAID Wildlife Asia, 2019. 62p.

By USAID Wildlife Asia

USAID Wildlife Asia is a five-year, US$24.5 million, regional counter wildlife trafficking (CWT) initiative addressing the trafficking of pangolins, tigers, elephants and rhinos in Southeast Asia and China. The USAID Wildlife Asia Activity works to address wildlife trafficking as a transnational crime. The project aims to reduce consumer demand for wildlife parts and products, strengthen law enforcement, enhance legal and political commitment and support regional collaboration to reduce wildlife crime in Southeast Asia, particularly Cambodia, China, Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR), Thailand, and Vietnam. TRAFFIC is a leading non-governmental organization working globally on trade in wild animals and plants in the context of both biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. TRAFFIC collaborated with USAID and many non-governmental organizations (NGOs) when researching and writing this report. This report is the third in a series, which builds on the previous USAID digests, Counter Wildlife Trafficking Digest: Southeast Asia and China, 2017, and Counter Wildlife Trafficking Digest: Southeast Asia and China, 2018. This report covers the period January to December 2019 with a focus on pangolins, tigers, elephants, and rhinos, and highlights the key developments in legislation on conservation, outlines some of the innovative social and behavior change communication (SBCC) research projects and campaigns, and then explores the seizures made in 2019. USAID Wildlife Asia and TRAFFIC regularly collect and update documentation on the current state of wildlife trafficking of these species through a compilation of secondary sources to report on and analyze trends and changes in patterns of trade. This information provides an evidence base to support decision-making about priority interventions in policy, law enforcement, and consumer demand reduction. SBCC covers the range of campaigns and the research that provides information on demand for illegal wildlife products, as well as reducing consumer demand for these goods. A wide range of remarkable SBCC projects have been implemented since the previous digest, with new collaborations between NGOs and the travel industry, and with government agencies taking an active role in reducing demand for wildlife products. This report highlights some of these SBCC campaigns along with the gaps remaining to be filled. As with previous issues, this third issue of the digest is based on a compilation of documentation, news articles, and reports that are readily available in the English language. Unlike previous digests, some information is also drawn from translated documents held in TRAFFIC’s Wildlife Trade Information System (WiTIS). Nevertheless, it is possible that some data are still missing; therefore, USAID Wildlife Asia does not assume the figures included provide a complete data set. The recommendations provided target not only USAID Wildlife Asia directly but also the broader counter wildlife trafficking community and include a focus on social behavior change, improved law enforcement, increased government commitment, political will, and effective regional coordination.

Bangkok: USAID Wildlife Asia, 69p.

By USAID Wildlife Asia

This report is the fourth in a series of USAID Counter Wildlife Trafficking Digests (2017- 2020). This issue covers the period from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and focuses on pangolins, tigers, elephants, and rhinos. It highlights major developments in conservation legislation, outlines some of the innovative social and behavior change communication (SBCC) research projects and campaigns, and explores enforcement efforts and seizures made in 2020. It is intended that this analysis will provide a helpful summary for individuals interested in recent developments in the illegal wildlife trade, and more importantly, catalyze further actions to counter the illegal and unsustainable wildlife trade. USAID regularly collects and updates documentation on the current state of wildlife trafficking through a compilation of direct observations, published material and secondary data sources. This data is then evaluated and publicized in order to keep stakeholders and the general public informed. This information also provides an evidence base to support policy reformation, enforcement actions, consumer behavior changes, and conservation interventions.

Bangkok: United States Agency for International Development (USAID), 2022. 80p.

By Jihane Ben Yahia

Summary The goldfinch is at risk of extinction in the Maghreb. 1 Years of unrestrained poaching and trafficking have almost decimated it in Tunisia and Algeria. Morocco, its last preserve in the North African subregion, is today the main hotspot for poaching and trafficking the species. The songbird, which fetches hundreds of euros in neighbouring countries (and in Europe), is prized for its glorious voice and is domesticated and trained for singing competitions. Despite increasing awareness of the threat and many efforts to protect it, Moroccan wildlife and law enforcement authorities are struggling to detect and prosecute poachers and traffickers and prevent the eradication of this ornithological treasure. Key points ∙ The goldfinch has almost disappeared from Tunisia and Algeria and in Morocco its numbers are declining. ∙ The reduction in the population is the result of environmental factors as well as of a high demand in the sub-region and in Europe, where the bird is domesticated and trained to sing in competitions. ∙ Criminal networks use Morocco as a hub for catching goldfinch and trafficking them to Algeria and Tunisia. ∙ Morocco has adopted legislation to protect the goldfinch and launches regular operations to combat the trafficking of protected species. ∙ Bringing goldfinch associations and federations into the regulatory ambit poses a challenge. ∙ There is no dedicated strategy to address the illicit capture and trafficking of the goldfinch in the Maghreb.

ENACT - Africa, 2020. 12p.

By Willis Okumu

Summary: Sandalwood trafficking in Kenya is a multi-million dollar trade that exploits local communities and leads to deforestation. The illegal trade in sandalwood has been sustained by a network of actors, from the community level to international markets. This has resulted in the devastation of community forests and has placed the sandalwood tree at risk of extinction. Meanwhile, middle- and upper-tier actors in this criminal network continue to enrich themselves. While the mandate to protect sandalwood in the wild belongs to the Kenya Forest Services, weaknesses in the Forest Conservation and Management Act No. 34 of 2016 has enabled the prosecution of sandalwood trafficking cases though the Wildlife Conservation and Management Act of 2013. The confusion that has emanated from lack of clarity on enforcement jurisdiction has emboldened sandalwood traffickers when presented in court. Further, lack of harmony in East African conservation laws has further facilitated the protection of Kenyan sandalwood smuggled into Uganda and Tanzania. Key findings ∙ Sandalwood trafficking is an environmental crime that leads to a loss of biodiversity, which has a negative impact on the ability of communities to produce enough food to ensure their livelihoods. ∙ Women seem to control the sandalwood trafficking network in Samburu County, first as harvesters at the community level and then as the traders coordinating linkages between local communities, police officers and other members of state agencies. ∙ Sandalwood trafficking in Kenya seems to rely on state officials who protect this organised crime network. ∙ A multi-agency approach to tackling sandalwood trafficking has had some success since 2020 and should be continued. ∙ Through the support of state and community agencies, sandalwood trees can be propagated in order to enable their sustainable harvesting and the commercialisation of the trade in northern Kenya.

ENACT - Africa, 2020. 20p.

By Jacqueline Cochrane and Ashwell Glasson

Summary Technology offers a critical avenue for nimble, innovative and proactive responses to wildlife crime. Harnessing these opportunities is essential, as wildlife crime is driving the rapid, unsustainable and increasingly irreversible depletion of animal and plant populations. Wildlife crime also poses risks to human security and undermines development and governance. Technology can either boost efforts to combat wildlife crime, or exacerbate and directly enable it. New approaches are needed to develop, procure and implement technology in the wildlife crime response. This policy brief offers a framework for a sustainable and strategic approach that prioritises the human element and maximises impact. Key findings ∙ The illegal wildlife trade is the fourth largest illegal trade globally, posing significant risks to human security, development and good governance. ∙ Unlike other illicit commodities, illegal wildlife products are derived from a finite and rapidly dwindling resource. ∙ Technology is not neutral: it can either exacerbate and drive wildlife crime, or significantly boost efforts to combat it. ∙ Decision making around technology must first take stock of corruption as a core enabler of wildlife crime and must adopt a ‘back-to-basics’ approach. ∙ To be sustainable and strategic, the development, procurement and implementation of technology in combating wildlife crime needs to be human-centred.

ENACT-Africa, 2022. 16p.

By Amanda J. Aubel, Angela Bruns, Xiaoya Zhang, Shani Buggs & Nicole Kravitz-Wirtz

Living near an incident of firearm violence can negatively impact youth, regardless of whether the violence is experienced firsthand. Inequities in household and neighborhood resources may affect the prevalence and consequences of exposure across racial/ethnic groups. Findings. Using data from the Future of Families and Child Wellbeing Study and the Gun Violence Archive, we estimate that approximately 1 in 4 adolescents in large US cities lived within 800 m (0.5 miles) of a past-year firearm homicide during 2014–17. Exposure risk decreased as household income and neighborhood collective efficacy increased, though stark racial/ethnic inequities remained. Across racial/ethnic groups, adolescents in poor households in moderate or high collective efficacy neighborhoods had a similar risk of past-year firearm homicide exposure as middle-to-high income adolescents in low collective efficacy neighborhoods. Conclusions. Empowering communities to build and leverage social ties may be as impactful for reducing firearm violence exposure as income supports. Comprehensive violence prevention efforts should include systems-level strategies that jointly strengthen family and community resources.

Injury Epidemiology volume 10, Article number: 24 (2023)

By Kathryn E. Schertz, James Saxon, Carlos Cardenas-Iniguez, Luís M. A. Bettencourt, Yi Ding, Henry Hoffmann & Marc G. Berman

Crime is a costly societal issue. While many factors influence urban crime, one less-studied but potentially important factor is neighborhood greenspace. Research has shown that greenspace is often negatively associated with crime. Measuring residents’ use of greenspace, as opposed to mere physical presence, is critical to understanding this association. Here, we used cell phone mobility data to quantify local street activity and park visits in Chicago and New York City. We found that both factors were negatively associated with crime, while controlling for socio-demographic factors. Each factor explained unique variance, suggesting multiple pathways for the influence of street activity and greenspace on crime. Physical tree canopy had a smaller association with crime, and was only a significant predictor in Chicago. These findings were further supported by exploratory directed acyclic graph modeling, which found separate direct paths for both park visits and street activity to crime.

Urban Sustainability (2021) 1-19.