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Transitions to legal cannabis markets: Legal market capture of cannabis expenditures in Canada following federal cannabis legalization

By David Hammond, Daniel Hong, Samantha Rundle, Maryam Iraniparast, Beau Kilmer, Elle Wadsworth

Canada legalized ‘recreational’ or ‘non-medical’ cannabis in 2018 with a primary objective of displacing illicit cannabis and transitioning consumers to a ‘quality controlled’ legal retail market. To date, there is limited research on legal market capture in jurisdictions with non-medical cannabis markets. Methods: The current analysis used ‘demand-side’ methods to estimate the size of the Canadian cannabis market using data from two sources. First, data from the Canadian Community Health Survey were used to estimate the number of Canadians who use cannabis. Second, data on cannabis expenditures from legal versus illegal sources were analyzed from 5656 past 12-month consumers aged 16–100 who completed national surveys conducted in 2022 as part of the International Cannabis Policy Study. Results: Total estimated expenditures from legal sources were within two percentage points of the ‘actual’ retail sales data from Government of Canada’s tracking system. In the 12-month period ending in September 2022, total cannabis expenditures in Canada were estimated at $6.72 billion dollars, including $5.23 billion from legal sources and $1.49 billion from illegal sources for an estimated legal market capture of 78 %. In 2022, dried flower accounted for 55 % of total legal expenditures and an additional 2 % was spent on plants and seeds. Concentrates accounted for 12 % of legal expenditures, followed by oral liquids (11 %), vaping liquids (10 %), and edibles (8 %, excluding drinks). Conclusions: The findings provide evidence of substantial transition in expenditures from the illegal to the legal market in the five years since legalization of non-medical cannabis in Canada.

International Journal of Drug Policy, 2025. 10p.

Cannabis consumption and motor vehicle collision: A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

By Jin A, Darzi AJ, Dargham A, Liddar N, Bozorgi S, Sohrevardi S, Zhang M, Torabiardakani K, Couban RJ, Khalili M, Busse JW, Sadeghirad B.

Background: Increasing legalization of recreational cannabis and availability of cannabinoid products has resulted in expanded use, which is associated with adverse effects including concerns over increased risk of motor vehicle collision (MVC). We aimed to explore the association between cannabis consumption and MVC.

Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane library, SCOPUS, PsycInfo, Web of Science, TRID from inception to November 2024. We included studies assessing the association between cannabis consumption on MVC fatalities, any injuries, and culpability/unsafe driving actions. Pairs of reviewers independently screened search results, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. We used a DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model for all meta-analyses and the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of evidence.

Results: We included 31 studies with 328,388 individuals. Low certainty evidence suggests that cannabis consumption may be associated with an increased risk of MVC fatality (8 studies, OR 1.55, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.98) with an absolute risk increase (ARI) of 14 more deaths per 100,000 MVC's. Low certainty evidence from 9 case-control studies suggests cannabis consumption may be associated with an increased risk of injury due to MVC (OR 2.00, [95% CI: 1.31-3.07]; absolute risk increase of 6.8%). We are uncertain about the association of cannabis consumption with MVC culpability/unsafe driving action as the evidence was only very low certainty.

Conclusions: Low certainty evidence suggests that cannabis consumption may increase risk of MVC fatality and risk of injury from MVC. The association between cannabis use and risk of unsafe driving is uncertain.

Int J Drug Policy. 2025 Aug;142:104832. doi: 10.1016/j.drugpo.2025.104832. Epub 2025 May 13. PMID: 40367728.

Repairing the “Machinery”: Recommendations and expectations for the independent review of international drug policy commitments

By The International Drug Policy Consortium

In March 2025, amidst geopolitical tensions, protracted negotiations, and a chaotic voting session at the 68th session of the Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND), a ground-breaking document was adopted. A new resolution, submitted by Colombia and supported by a broad cross-regional coalition of Member States, agreed to create a “multidisciplinary panel of 19 independent experts” tasked with reviewing “the existing machinery for the international control of narcotic drugs” and providing recommendations to strengthen the system and its implementation.

This is a historical, once-in-a-generation opportunity to propose serious changes that further social inclusion, social justice, and “the health and welfare of humankind”. This opportunity must not be wasted.

In this advocacy note, IDPC lays out some key considerations and aspirations for the panel, as well as some of the potential pitfalls to avoid, in order to make this review count.

London: IDPC, 2o25. 11p

State Marijuana "Legalization" and Federal Drug Law: A Brief Overview for Congress

By Joanna R. Lampe

State marijuana laws have changed significantly in recent years, and federal law appears poised to change in the coming months. At the state level, many states have enacted laws authorizing the use of marijuana for medical purposes. A smaller but growing number of states have also amended their laws to legalize or decriminalize marijuana use. At the federal level, in April 2024, news outlets reported that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) planned to change the status of marijuana under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA) by moving it from Schedule I to the less restrictive Schedule III. Under current law, many cannabis-related activities that comply with state law may nonetheless violate the federal CSA. Moving marijuana to Schedule III would not bring state-legal marijuana markets into compliance with federal law. In light of recent and proposed changes to state and federal marijuana regulation, this Sidebar provides an overview of the divergence between federal and state marijuana law. It then briefly discusses the legal consequences of the divergence and outlines certain related considerations for Congress.

Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service, 2025. 5p.

A national survey of state laws regarding medications for opioid use disorder in problem-solving courts

By Barbara Andraka-Christou , Olivia Randall-Kosich , Matthew Golan , Rachel Totaram , Brendan Saloner , Adam J Gordon , Bradley D Stein

Background: Problem-solving courts have the potential to help reduce harms associated with the opioid crisis. However, problem-solving courts vary in their policies toward medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD), with some courts discouraging or even prohibiting MOUD use. State laws may influence court policies regarding MOUD; thus, we aimed to identify and describe state laws related to MOUD in problem-solving courts across the US from 2005 to 2019.

Methods: We searched Westlaw legal software for regulations and statutes (collectively referred to as "state laws") in all US states and D.C. from 2005 to 2019 and included laws related to both MOUD and problem-solving courts in our analytic sample. We conducted a modified iterative categorization process to identify and analyze categories of laws related to MOUD access in problem-solving courts.

Results: Since 2005, nine states had laws regarding MOUD in problem-solving courts. We identified two overarching categories of state laws: 1) laws that prohibit MOUD bans, and 2) laws potentially facilitating access to MOUD. Seven states had laws that prohibit MOUD bans, such as laws prohibiting exclusion of participants from programs due to MOUD use or limiting the type of MOUD, dose or treatment duration. Four states had laws that could facilitate access to MOUD, such as requiring courts to make MOUD available to participants.

Discussion: Relatively few states have laws facilitating MOUD access and/or preventing MOUD bans in problem-solving courts. To help facilitate MOUD access for court participants across the US, model state legislation should be created. Additionally, future research should explore potential effects of state laws on MOUD access and health outcomes for court participants.

Health Justice. 2022 Mar 31;10(1):14. doi: 10.1186/s40352-022-00178-6. PMID: 35357599; PMCID: PMC8969254.

Synthetic Drugs in East and Southeast Asia - Latest developments and challenges

By Inshik Sim, Shawn Kelley, Kavinvadee Suppapongtevasakul, Seong Jae Shin

This report shows that the production and trafficking of methamphetamine in Shan State, Myanmar, have significantly increased since 2021. Thailand remained the main transit and destination point for methamphetamine trafficked from Myanmar and recorded the largest quantity of methamphetamine seizures in the region. The report highlights the evolving nature of transnational drug trafficking groups operating in East and Southeast Asia. These groups have demonstrated remarkable agility in reacting to law enforcement pressure, as shown by the spread of production sites for ketamine and related precursor chemicals.

Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime; 2025. 150p.

Understanding the EU's response to illicit drugs

By Katrien Luyten

The EU is an important market for illicit drugs (hereinafter referred to as drugs), both in terms of consumption and production. An estimated 29% of European adults aged 15-65 have used drugs at least once in their lifetime, the majority of them being men. Cannabis remains by far the most used drug, followed by cocaine, MDMA (ecstasy or molly) and amphetamines. Drugs have been claiming an increasing number of lives in the EU since 2012, but their impact goes far beyond the harm caused by their use. The drugs market is the largest criminal market in the EU, with an estimated minimum retail value of €30 billion per year in the EU alone. Over a third of the organised crime groups active in the EU are involved in the trade in drugs, which, besides generating massive criminal profits and inflicting substantial harm, incites associated violence. Drug markets furthermore have links with wider criminal activity, including terrorism; they have a negative impact on the legal economy and communities, cause environmental damage and can fuel corruption and undermine governance. Drugs have been trafficked into and through the EU for decades, but they are also increasingly produced in the EU, for both local and global markets, asis the case for cannabis and synthetic drugs such as amphetamines. In fact, the trade in synthetic drugs in the EU is unique compared to other substances,as the production of these drugs and new psychoactive substances in most cases takes place in the EU. In 2021, around 1million seizures of drugs were reported in the EU-27 plus Norway and Türkiye. Although the EU Member States carry the primary responsibility for developing their drug policy and legislation, cross-border cooperation is paramount in the fight against drugs. With the problem constantly expanding in scale and complexity, the EU has been increasingly active since the early 1990s, particularly with respect to law enforcement, health-related issues and the detection and risk assessment of new psychoactive substances. This is an update of a briefing published in September 2021.

Brussels: EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service , 2023.. 12p.

Is fentanyl in everything? Examining the unexpected occurrence of illicit opioids in British Columbia’s drug supply

By Bruce Wallace, Irene Shkolnikov, Collin Kielty, Derek Robinson, et al.

Background Illicit opioids, including fentanyl, are linked to unprecedented levels of overdose in Canada and elsewhere. The risks associated with illicit opioids can include high potency, unpredictable concentration and the unexpected presence in other drugs. Within this context, we examine drug checking data to better understand the presence of illicit opioids such as fentanyl in other drugs and possible ways to interpret these results. Methods Three years (2021–2023) of data (18,474 samples) from Substance Drug Checking in British Columbia, Canada were examined to investigate the risks associated with the detection of opioids in other drugs such as cocaine and methamphetamine, as well as in other drug categories. Samples were tested by paper spray mass spectrometry (PS-MS), fentanyl test strips and Fourier-Transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). We examine the 8889 samples not expected to include fentanyl to confirm; if the expected drug was detected, if unexpected opioids were detected, and when the unexpected opioids are in trace concentration. Results Unexpected opioids were rarely detected (2%) in other drugs (189 of 8889 samples) with most (61.4%) detected at trace concentration levels. Unexpected opioids are far more likely to be found in samples that did not contain the expected drug than in samples that were confirmed to contain the expected drug. The least common scenario (below 1%) were substances that included the expected drug plus unexpected opioid above trace concentration. These findings raise questions on how to interpret and communicate the detection of fentanyl and related opioids in other drugs. We present three potential interpretations: (1) mistaken and misrepresented samples where the expected drug was never detected, (2) cross contamination when opioids were at trace concentration levels, or (3) adulteration as the least frequent scenario where opioids were detected above trace concentrations in combination with the expected drug. Conclusions In a region where fentanyl is associated with extreme rates of overdose, it remains rare to find such opioids in other drugs. However, the risk of fentanyl in other drugs remains an ongoing threat that warrants responses by individuals and public health. We provide possible interpretations to inform such responses. Our data raises questions on how to interpret and communicate the detection of fentanyl and other opioids in other drugs.

Harm Reduction Journal, (2025) 22:28, 8p.

Homicide and Drug Trafficking in Impoverished Communities in Brazil

By Elenice De Souza Oliveira , Braulio Figueiredo Alves da Silva , Flavio Luiz Sapori & Gabriela Gomes Cardoso

Many studies demonstrate that homicides are heavily concentrated in impoverished neighborhoods, but not all socially disadvantaged neighborhoods are hotbeds of violence. Conducted in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, this study hypothesizes that the association between high rates of homicide and impoverished areas is influenced by the emergence of a specific type of street drug-dealing common to favelas (slums). The study applies econometric techniques to police data on homicides and drug arrests from 2008 to 2011, as well as 2010 Census data, to test its hypothesis. The findings provide insight into the development of crime prevention policies in areas of high social vulnerability.

International Journal of Law and Public Administration Vol. 3, No. 2; December 2020

The cost of addiction: Opioid use disorder in the United States

By Avalere Health

In 2022, over six million people in the United States reported having an opioid use disorder (OUD). Past research has not yielded comprehensive estimates of the full societal burden of OUD or the impact of OUD treatments in limiting associated costs. To evaluate the costs of OUD and the benefits and cost savings associated with OUD treatment, Avalere Health conducted secondary research and modeled the costs as well as the savings associated with treatment of OUD, nationally and by state. This research (1) characterized the prevalence of OUD, (2) modeled the costs of OUD, and (3) modeled the net cost impact of four ambulatory OUD treatments: (a) behavioral therapy alone, (b) behavioral therapy plus methadone, (c) behavioral therapy plus transmucosal buprenorphine, and (d) behavioral therapy plus longacting injectable (LAI) buprenorphine. Key findings: 1. OUD prevalence: OUD cases per capita (the percentage of individuals per state with OUD) ranged among states from 0.75% to 2.99%. New Hampshire, Nevada, Massachusetts, and Kentucky had the highest rates of OUD (greater than 2.5%), while Wyoming, Hawaii, Washington DC, and Minnesota had the lowest (less than 1.0%). 2. Cost burden of OUD: The average annual total cost per OUD case OUD is approximately $695,000 across all stakeholders analyzed. The annual cost per OUD case, excluding the patient burden to the individual with OUD, is approximately $163,000, spread across public and private stakeholders. Including lost quality and length of life, the patient burden of OUD is approximately $532,000 per year. 3. Costs to external stakeholders: The costs to the federal government, state/local government, private businesses, and society are driven by lost productivity for employers ($438 billion), employees ($248 billion), and households ($73 billion). Health insurance and uninsured costs were $111 billion, criminal justice costs are $52 billion, and other substance use treatment costs are: $12 billion. 4. Treatment benefits of OUD: Medications and behavioral therapy to treat OUD are associated with significant average cost savings per case. Estimated annual per-case savings net of treatment cost from ambulatory treatments are estimated to be: • $144,000 for behavioral therapy alone • $271,000 for behavioral therapy plus methadone • $271,000 for behavioral therapy plus sublingual buprenorphine • $295,000 for behavioral therapy plus LAI buprenorphine

Washington, DC: Avalere Health, 2025. 21p.

Increasing Presence of a New Adulterant BTMPS in the Illicit Drug Supply

By:Natalie Butler

The Washington/Baltimore HIDTA Information Bulletin by Butler et al. highlights the emergence of Bis(2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-4-piperidyl) sebacate (BTMPS), or Tinuvin 770, in Maryland’s illicit drug supply. BTMPS, an industrial UV stabilizer not approved for human use, was found in 0.7% of drug-positive samples (Jan–Mar 2025), often alongside fentanyl, heroin, and xylazine. It acts as a potent L-type calcium channel blocker and non-competitive antagonist at nicotinic receptors and does not respond to naloxone. First detected in 2024, BTMPS has since spread to at least 11 states. In New Mexico, it appeared in counterfeit M30 tablets with reports of severe withdrawal. Individuals who have used it describe BTMPS as smelling like bug spray or burning plastic.

Washington/Baltimore HIDTA Investigative Support Center , 2025. 3p.

Drug Control: DOD and National Guard Align Counterdrug Policies and Guidance with Federal Laws

By Diana Moldafsky

Drug overdose deaths in the U.S., including from synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, surged during the past 25 years, according to the Office of National Drug Control Policy. Congress appropriated approximately $1.33 billion dollars for the National Guard Counterdrug Program during fiscal year 2019 through fiscal year 2024. This program supports federal, state, local, and tribal law enforcement with drug interdiction activities in 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and U.S. Virgin Islands. The joint explanatory statement for the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2024, includes a provision for GAO to review certain DOD and National Guard Bureau counterdrug instructions and examine whether they limit support for counterdrug efforts under the law. This report evaluates the extent to which (1) DOD and National Guard Bureau align their counterdrug policies with applicable federal counterdrug laws; and (2) DOD’s changes in guidance during fiscal year 2019 through fiscal year 2024 clarified how counterdrug activities could be conducted. GAO identified and reviewed federal counterdrug laws; evaluated relevant DOD and National Guard Bureau policies; and reviewed changes in DOD policies and guidance related to the implementation of domestic counterdrug activities during the past 6 fiscal years. GAO also interviewed DOD, federal law enforcement, and state National Guard officials. GAO also conducted site visits to locations in California and Texas.

Drug overdose deaths in the U.S., including those from fentanyl, surged over the past 25 years.

To reduce drug trafficking and criminal activity, the Department of Defense and the National Guard help support federal, state, local and tribal law enforcement. The counterdrug support services they offer include information analysis, translation and transcription, and air and ground surveillance.

DOD and the National Guard Bureau work to ensure their counterdrug policies match up with the activities described in federal laws. DOD periodically updates its guidance to further clarify what counterdrug activities can be conducted.

Washington DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2025. 35p.

Firms and Labor in Times of Violence: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War

By Hale Utar

This paper examines how firms in an emerging economy are affected by violence due to drug trafficking. Employing rich longitudinal plant-level data covering all of Mexico from 2005–2010, and using an instrumental variable strategy that exploits plausibly exogenous spatiotemporal variation in the homicide rate during the outbreak of drug-trade related violence in Mexico, I show that violence has a significant negative impact on plant output, product scope, employment, and capacity utilization. Resilience to violence differs widely across different types of employment within firms and across firms with different characteristics. Employment decline is driven by blue collar employment only. Dissecting within- and cross-plant heterogeneity points to a local labor supply channel where particularly plants utilizing low-wage, female, blue-collar workers are impacted. Consistent with a blue-collar labor supply shock, the results show a positive impact on average blue-collar wages and a negative impact on average white-collar wages at the firm level. Output elasticity of violence is also shown to be larger among low-wage, female-intensive but also domestically buying and selling plants. These findings show the rise of drug violence has significant distortive effects on domestic industrial development in Mexico and shed light on the characteristics of the most affected firms and the channels through which they are affected.

Bonn: IZA – Institute of Labor Economics, 2022. 121p.

National Drug Threat Assessment: 2025

By The Drug Enforcement Administration

Mexican cartels’ production, trafficking, and distribution of powerful illicit synthetic drugs, chiefly fentanyla and methamphetamine, represent a dire threat to public health, the rule of law, and national security in the United States. The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels (CJNG), together with their procurement, distribution, and financial support networks stretching across Latin America, China, and other key global nodes, remain the dominant threats for the trafficking of these and other drugs into the United States. In the 12-month period ending in October 2024, 84,076 Americans died from a drug overdose, according to the most recent available provisional statistics from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), underscoring the devastating effect these cartels have on our country. Although these numbers show a 25 percent decline since the same 12-month period last year – when the country lost 112,910 people to drug poisonings – demonstrating positive momentum in the fight against these drugs and the organizations trafficking them, the threat remains grave. The trend is hopeful, however. October 2024 was the eleventh consecutive month in which CDC reported a reduction, and the current statistics represent the largest 12-month reduction in drug overdose deaths ever recorded. Fentanyl and other synthetic drugs, including methamphetamine, are the primary drivers of fatal drug overdose deaths nationwide, while other illicit drugs, such as cocaine, heroin, and diverted prescription opioids still contribute meaningfully to the drug threat landscape in the United States. However, overdose and poisoning deaths involving fentanyl and other synthetic opioids caused more deaths than all other categories of drugs. This exceptionally deadly drug – often pressed into pills resembling legitimate medications and presented as authentic to customers or mixed into other drugs – creates a heightened risk of fatal overdose for unsuspecting or otherwise opioid-naïve users. The production and trafficking of drugs by Mexican cartels has fundamentally altered the drug and criminal landscapes in North America. The cartels capitalize on the relative ease of synthetic drug production compared to the physical and environmental limitations of traditional plant-based drug production to generate immense revenues. The cartels maintain steady supply chains for obtaining the precursor chemicals, primarily from China and India, necessary to produce these synthetic drugs. The Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartels, in particular, control clandestine production sites in Mexico, smuggling routes into the United States, and distribution hubs in key U.S. cities. The cartels work with U.S. drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) and violent gangs to distribute drugs throughout the country, all exploiting social media and messaging applications to extend their reach to a larger and younger customer base. The cartels’ extensive, complex, and adaptable networks present formidable challenges across the U.S. law enforcement, national security, regulatory, financial, and health and wellness sectors.  

Washington, DC: DEA, 2025. 80p.

"Impact of Recreational Marijuana Sales on Vehicle Crashes and OVIs in Columbus, Ohio" By Peter Leasure and Robert Kaminski

By Peter Leasure and Robert Kaminski

The current study used a time series design with Ohio State Highway Patrol and Ohio Department of Public Safety data to explore whether sales of recreational marijuana increased incidents of operating a vehicle while impaired (OVI) in Franklin County, Ohio and vehicle crashes in Columbus, Ohio. Two different statistical models were used to ensure the robustness of the results (a generalized linear model and Linden's itsa). In other words, we would want to see the same results from both models for moderate support of a particular finding. The results were mixed regarding the impact of recreational marijuana sales on total OVIs in Franklin County, Ohio. The generalized linear model showed a statistically significant increase in OVIs after recreational sales began, but the itsa model failed to replicate that finding. The results were also mixed regarding the impact of recreational marijuana sales on marijuana OVIs in Franklin County, Ohio. The generalized linear model showed a statistically significant increase in marijuana OVIs after recreational sales began, but the itsa model failed to replicate that finding. However, both models failed to find that recreational sales increased vehicle crashes in Columbus, Ohio, meaning that there is modest evidence that recreational sales did not increase vehicle crashes in Columbus, Ohio. A sensitivity analysis that used a balanced time series (91 days before the intervention and 91 days after) was also utilized, and those results largely confirmed the above findings.

Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 915

Columbus, OH Ohio State University (OSU) - Michael E. Moritz College of Law

Bad Pharma: trafficking illicit medical products in West Africa

By Flore Berger and Mouhamadou Kane 

West Africa has become a hotspot for the trafficking of medical products, with estimations that the illicit market makes up to 80% of medical products in Burkina Faso and Guinea, the two case studies of this brief. Despite its enormous scale, there are gaps in knowledge that this report seeks to address by providing a qualitative analysis of the market’s key characteristics and enablers (corruption and insecurity), and an assessment of national and regional responses. Recommendations l The complex supply chains feeding the illicit market for medical products dictate that responses must be international, and at the very least regional, to be effective. ECOWAS hence has a key role to play at the regional level to enhance cross-border intelligence gathering and cooperation. l National authorities are best placed to tackle the structural drivers (affordability and accessibility) behind the demand for illicit medical products, and should work simultaneously on awareness campaigns, as well as on wider distribution of and access to key high-demand products such as antimalarials. l Civil society has a key role to play. In addition to supporting the awareness-raising effort, civil society is also central in holding people accountable (including customs officials and politicians, for example) by denouncing cases of corruption and malfeasance.  

  OCWAR-T Policy Brief 5 | August 2023, Institute for Security Studies, 2023. 10p.

Cocaine Connections: Links Between the Western Balkans and South America

By Fatjona Mejdini

Organized crime groups from the Western Balkans have over the last 20 years established a remarkably strong foothold in South America in their pursuit of cocaine that they ship to and distribute in Europe and beyond. They have evolved from minor European players into prominent international criminal enterprises in this illicit global commodity trade, building durable relationships at both ends of the highly lucrative supply chain. Their rise has been spurred, in part, by luck. Two key factors have favoured them: an unprecedented surge in cocaine production in South America and insatiable demand for the drug in Europe. The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC)’s European Drug Trends Monitor suggests that after reaching record high levels in 2023, and despite a drop in seizures in the beginning of 2024, cocaine availability remains stable, if not on the rise, in Europe.1 Indeed, record seizures are being documented at key EU ports and the bloc’s drugs monitoring agency, the European Union Drugs Agency, announced in March 2023 another annual increase in the levels of cocaine detected in wastewater, continuing an upward trend that began in 2016.2 But guile has played an equally important role in the success of these groups, which have leveraged the smuggling expertise and paramilitary training established during the Balkan ethnic conflicts and civil unrests of the 1990s. Playing the long game, they have learned from and won the respect of the Italian mafia, among others, while retaining an agility that has allowed them to seize market opportunities. This has largely been achieved – so far, at least – without provoking debilitating blowback from rival players. The research for this report focused on Western Balkan organized crime groups and was conducted within this framework. Consequently, the dynamics observed in South American countries are explored solely in relation to these criminal groups. The report aims to provide a detailed understanding of their presence in South America and the broader implications that this has for their future in the context of the Western Balkans. Balkan brokers have been crucial to their success in establishing symbiotic local relationships. They have forged strong and enduring connections in the cocaine-producing countries of Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, from cartels to coca farmers. They have also been able to establish strong bases and key relationships in dispatching countries such as Brazil, Ecuador and, more recently, the neighbouring Caribbean region. Not only have they managed to navigate the South America’s criminal environment with relative ease, but in some cases they have also proved able to forge relationships within high-level business and political circles in the countries where they operate.3 To avoid disruptions to their operations at the wholesale source, they have intentionally maintained a professional working distance from other foreign criminal organizations operating in South America, especially the infamous Mexican cartels. However, they have managed to expand their footprint in global cocaine markets, partly through arrangements with some of Europe’s most prominent criminal organizations, such as the Dutch–Moroccan networks, the Kinahan cartel and Italian mafia groups like the ’Ndrangheta and the Camorra. They have also displayed creativity by employing various forms of trafficking methods. These extend beyond the use of container ships, to also encompass cargo and leisure vessels and planes. Their presence in South America and the international cocaine supply chain has left a conspicuous footprint that has been tracked by law enforcement activity. Over the past three years, half of the targets of Europol-coordinated cocaine operations have been linked to individuals and networks from this region, thanks in part to the crackdown on communication platforms such as EncroChat and SKY ECC, which were widely used by criminal organizations from the Western Balkans.4 Western Balkan criminals have been accused of transporting tens of tonnes of cocaine from South America to major ports in Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and elsewhere. Although these major European entry hubs appear to be the primary channels for criminal organizations from the Western Balkans, these actors also utilize ports in the Balkans region as transit points for trafficking cocaine elsewhere in Europe. Their involvement in the global illicit cocaine trade is not confined to the European consumer market, however. Western Balkan groups have been linked to significant seizures on other continents as well, including one of the largest cocaine seizures in US history (more than 20 tonnes, worth more than US$1 billion).5 Western Balkans groups have also, in recent years, been using their strong presence in South America to target even wealthier markets, such as Australia, using Africa and Southern Europe as transit regions.6 These criminal entities have also left a trail of blood. Since 2010, at least 19 people from the Western Balkans believed to be linked with cocaine trafficking have been killed in South America, according to GI-TOC records. Their activities have exacerbated instability in certain South American countries such as Ecuador, as they relentlessly secure supplies of cocaine and its safe shipment – at any cost. This research report identifies the links between criminal actors from the Western Balkans and the South American cocaine trafficking market. It provides an overview of the factors that have impelled the region’s organized crime groups towards South America and addresses the implications arising from their presence in that region. The study sheds light on their origins and operations, revealing common patterns despite the diverse backgrounds from which they have emerged. The study finds that links between the Western Balkans and South America have existed for around three decades but have significantly intensified in the last two. It predominantly focuses on organized crime groups from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia, but also makes reference to those from other countries in South Eastern Europe where relevant, in relation to their collaboration in the cocaine trade. It is important to note that international law enforcement organizations, in their reporting, often refer to criminal groups from the Western Balkans as ‘Albanian-speaking networks’7 or the ‘Balkan Cartel’.8 The former is used to denote criminal groups of Albanian nationality that speak Albanian, while the latter refers to criminal groups of Slavic origin that speak the Bosnian-Croatian-Montenegrin-Serbian language.9 These terms indicate ethnicity and linguistic variations among actors rather than their organizational characteristics. Inter-ethnic cooperation between organized crime groups in the Western Balkans has a long history, particularly in the trafficking of weaponry and ammunition, cigarettes, fuel and drugs, and human smuggling. In some cases, integrated organized crime groups have emerged bringing together members from different countries within the region. But these groups prefer to retain their independence, and there is no evidence of the creation of cartels in the Western Balkan region.10 Organized crime groups in the region generally have a clear leadership structure, but Balkan organized crime groups operating in South America appear to prefer a horizontal organizational structure that allows flexibility. Due to the transnational nature of cocaine trafficking, these groups have become adaptable. Often, their trafficking operations in South America are seen as ‘joint ventures’ or ‘projects’ that bring together organizations or groups of criminals from different countries and ethnic backgrounds who happen to be in the right place and have the necessary resources and skills to achieve the desired outcome. The extensive supply chain coordination needed to procure, transport, process and distribute the drug has prompted enhanced flexibility within these groups. Therefore, in this report, the terms ‘organized crime groups’ and ‘criminal networks’ will be used interchangeably.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime , 2025. 48p.

The criminal careers of Australian drug traffickers

By Don Weatherburn, Michael Farrell, Wai-Yin Wan, Sara Rahman

Background: Very few studies have examined the criminal careers of drug traffickers. Our aim in this study was to determine (a) the percentage of drug traffickers who cease involvement in crime following their first conviction for drug trafficking, (b) the factors that affect the likelihood and speed of re-offending among drug traffickers, (c) the factors that affect the rate of reoffending among drug traffickers and (d) the scale of drug trafficker involvement in crimes other than drug trafficking.

Methods: We characterize the criminal careers of a sample of 30,020 cases of offenders convicted of drug trafficking in New South Wales (NSW), Australia over the 29-year period between 2000 and 2023, focussing on how drug charge, trafficker type, and drug and alcohol use affect the risk and frequency of offending. We use a combination of descriptive statistics, cure fraction regression and negative binomial regression. Our controls in the regression analyses consist of age, age of first conviction and number of prior convictions.

Results: The 'cure' rate among males aged 30-39 who were first convicted between 19 and 35 years of age, whose principal offence is trafficking in a non-commercial quantity of heroin, who have three prior convictions and who score 'moderate' in terms of the LSI-R drug/alcohol scale is 31 per cent. The instantaneous risk of re-offending among ATS, heroin, cannabis and ecstasy traffickers ranges between 62 and 82 per cent higher than among cocaine traffickers. Convicted drug traffickers commit a wide variety of offences but only a small proportion are convicted of drug offences before or after their first conviction for drug trafficking.

Conclusions: The present study raises two important questions for future research. The first concerns whether those involved in drug trafficking in Australia rely on it as a primary source of income or whether it is just one of several income-generating criminal activities they switch between in the course of a criminal career. The second question is why there are such marked differences in the risk, speed and frequency of offending among traffickers of different drugs.

International Journal of Drug Policy; 2024, 10p.

(I)llicit Chains: Some New Hypotheses Regarding a Changing Global Cocaine Market 

By Nicolas Lien and Gabriel Feltran

International cocaine trafficking from South America has increased significantly over the past decade. Based on mixed-methods research, we hypothesize that this change has been driven primarily by the globalization of its logistics, which has led to relevant technical and political changes along the value chain. Today’s global criminal logistics connect a wider variety of producers and retailers, ensuring a market without monopoly and monopsony, although very few transnational criminal groups control the center of the value chain. Their cooperation results in a virtuous circle for illicit accumulation, in which the constant improvement in productivity in South America also leads to an increase in consumer demand in Europe and, more recently, in Africa, Asia, and Oceania. We used a mixed-methods approach to relationally analyze coherent changes in the cocaine value chain in Latin American, African, and European countries. 

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 7(1): pp. 20–34

Drug and DUI Offenses in South Dakota: An Examination of the Trends

By Measures for Justice

South Dakota is currently in a dispute about legalized marijuana use for recreational and medicinal purposes. In this context, it’s worth considering how the state handles criminal cases involving drug and DUI offenses. Measures for Justice (MFJ) recently published county-level criminal justice data for the state of South Dakota that span 2009–2017. A review of our findings suggests that relative to other offenses, South Dakota counties pursue harsher responses to court cases in which the most serious offense was related to drug possession/distribution or driving under the influence (DUI). The pattern can be seen at multiple points in case processing. This report explores these disparate findings using three Measures: dismissal rates, time to disposition, amount of fees and fines. Year by year, we have found that drug and DUI cases (1) are dismissed at a lower rate in most counties, (2) take longer, on average, to dispose of than other case types, and (3) face some of the highest financial obligations at conviction

Rochester, NY: Measures for Justice, 2021. 7p.