By Tena Prelec

The research paper that this briefing note summarises introduces a new framework for assessing the relationship between information manipulation and organised crime. Through applied real-world case studies from Russia, Ukraine, Moldova (Transnistria), and Albania, the framework reveals diverse patterns in these relationships, and the varying intensity of the information manipulation employed at a granular level. An emerging hypothesis emerging from the research suggests that authoritarian states may wield greater freedom in misusing information when they have intermediate – rather than high – levels of integration with the organised crime groups (OCG’s) executing disinformation campaigns on their behalf. The paper also identifies several areas for further research, including public receptivity to information manipulation, the mercurial nature of ties between elite actors and the use of information manipulation by elites, to create confusion amongst the public rather than to change their minds.

SOC ACE Research Paper. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham. 2024. 7p.

By Colette Ashton

Strengthening existing institutions, prioritising prevention and engaging the private sector are needed to end corruption.

This report analyses South Africa’s anti-corruption institutions in relation to international good practice. It highlights problems with their functional independence and organisational culture. It identifies a serious gap in the area of prevention. Among the recommendations are that South Africa undertake feasible, incremental improvements to existing institutions and engage the private sector to help prevent and detect corruption.

Key findings There is insufficient empirical research on corruption in South Africa to inform context sensitive policy reform. Anti-corruption institutions are governed by a parallel informal system of social norms held in place by incentives such as promotion and disincentives such as bullying. This organisational culture prioritises obedience to authority over ethics, eroding integrity. A culture of mistrust and competition exists between law enforcement agencies, hampering collaboration. Feasible, incremental reforms of anti-corruption institutions are needed in the short term, focusing on organisational culture. Recommendations Strengthen existing agencies Amend the National Prosecuting Authority Act so that: the National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) is the accounting officer; the budget is allocated by Parliament; there are merit-based appointment processes and security of tenure for senior leaders; and the NDPP has control over human resources. Develop context-sensitive prosecutorial prioritisation policy that focuses on the criteria of redress for economic harm and is mindful of the need for political stability. Revise performance targets of law enforcement agencies to incentivise cooperation, not competition. Build cultures of integrity, trust and cooperation in and among anti-corruption agencies. Prioritise prevention Work towards an independent anti-corruption prevention agency. Urgently provide the Public Administration Ethics Integrity and Disciplinary Technical Assistance Unit in the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation with increased funding and independence. 2 The NPA should be given control over its own budget and human resources, which are currently controlled by the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development. Effective anti-corruption agencies in developing countries may trigger political instability. Political stability is a precondition for economic growth, which in the long term creates conditions for more effective anti-corruption institutions. Equitable economic development is a precondition for the transformation of more economically harmful types of corruption, e.g. plunder, into less harmful types, e.g. lobbying. The private sector is a key partner for government in the prevention and detection of corruption. Prioritise integrity in government by promoting ethical employees. Prioritise corruption prevention in the South African Police Service. Change the incentive structure for the private sector Introduce a statute providing for non-trial resolutions of corporate corruption cases to incentivise companies to self-police corruption. Develop capacity in the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission to support companies to develop effective anti corruption compliance programmes. Partner with the private sector to run collective action programmes in key sectors such as health, construction and shipping. Research Conduct a risk analysis for a proposed Chapter 9 anti-corruption super-agency with investigative and prosecutorial powers. Conduct research into a two-track criminal and administrative anti-corruption enforcement system. Conduct more empirical, sector-specific research into corruption

Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2024. 28p,

By Colette Ashton

Developing country theorists claim that strategies should focus on human behaviour and economic incentives, not legal measures.

To remedy systemic corruption in South Africa, policymakers must look beyond the discourse of transparency and accountability to emerging anti-corruption theory. Policy research in this field should be multi-disciplinary, grounded in empirical research and informed by decolonial thought. There is a need for more research into the unique types and drivers of corruption at national, local and sector-specific levels, to inform policy reform.

Key findings There is international consensus that anti-corruption reforms often fail or backfire, particularly in developing countries. The dominant Western good governance approach should be supplemented by theory emerging from other schools of thought from developing countries. The good governance approach recommends transparency and accountability, prioritising better laws and improved enforcement as the primary solutions. Theorists from developing countries claim that where there is systemic corruption, it is more helpful to focus on human behaviour and economic incentives to prevent corruption. Legalistic measures tend to be one-dimensional, ineffective and sometimes harmful. Recommendations Government should: Reconsider policies in light of emerging theory and evidence from global anti- corruption practices. Develop a strategy for communicating alternative perspectives and approaches to heads and staff of anti-corruption agencies and other government institutions. Researchers should: 2 Conduct localised and sector-specific empirical research into corruption in South Africa. Conduct qualitative research into the social norms governing government institutions and the private sector. Critically analyse the South African anti corruption discourse through a decolonial lens. Social norms – what people expect others to do – are the unwritten rules governing institutions and are a primary driver of corruption. For many, obeying these rules is a logical response to structural conditions, including economic incentives and disincentives. Research shows that most people are inclined to behave ethically if their environment facilitates it. Reframing corruption as a collective action problem, where policy is designed to influence the behaviour of groups, is likely to result in more effective anti-corruption initiatives. Economic development that delivers more equitable distribution of opportunities and wealth is a precondition for building a state with the capacity to reduce corruption. Determine who the rule-following elites are and devise ways to incentivise them to exert pressure on non-rule-following elites. NGOs should: Develop partnerships with institutions working with alternative theoretical/policy approaches. Explore opportunities for cooperation with business and government in developing sector specific anti-corruption projects. Develop and execute a strategy for communicating alternative perspectives to civil society and media, and in doing so, highlight success stories. Develop pilot anti-corruption reform projects based on emerging alternative perspectives

Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2024. 12p.

By Global Financial Integrity, FACT Coalition, and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective

Today Global Financial Integrity, in conjunction with the FACT Coalition and the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, is releasing a report with identifies 25 cases in which illegal, allegedly illicit or suspicious funds were funneled into commercial property in the United States over approximately the last 20 years. With a total value of property exceeding $2.6 billion, California, Florida and New York are some of the most favored locations for these illegal investments, but criminals stashed money across some 20 different states. This money originated from around the globe and includes suspicious funds from 14 countries, including Iran, North Korea, Kazakhstan, Russia and Mexico. As varied as the sources of funds were, so too were the types of properties involved. Hotels, shopping malls, supermarkets, a music studio and an equestrian facility in addition to more pedestrian office high-rise

It should be noted that our research represents only known cases involving U.S. commercial real estate: the actual number is likely much higher. Our data definitively shows, however, that commercial property in the U.S. offers criminal syndicates, cartels, kleptocrats and fraudsters an easy path to hide and launder their ill-gotten gains. Russian oligarchs facing international sanctions have also invested in U.S. commercial real estate. Shockingly, eight of the 25 cases involve foreign government officials or their relatives, yet the links to these Politically Exposed Persons were only uncovered long after the purchases.In recent years it has become increasingly clear that the combination of complex financing schemes and a lack of transparency mean commercial real estate provides a unique opportunity for laundering huge amounts of cash with a relatively low risk of detection. Identifying who is behind the purchase of commercial property often presents a significant challenge given large financial flows from real estate investment trusts and private investment groups, in addition to funds from shell companies formed and operated by registered agents, proxies and/or attorneys. Key Findings – More than $2.6 billion in suspicious funds were invested in commercial real estate in 22 U.S. states over approximately the last 20 years. The actual figure is likely much higher.– Funds used to buy commercial real estate in the United States originated in 14 different countries including Russia (4 cases), Mexico (4 cases), China, Malaysia, Iran and Kazakhstan (see Map 2). – Of the 25 cases reviewed for this study, 14 involved either politically exposed persons or oligarchs who typically have especially close relationships with foreign government officials. – The types of properties appearing in cases fall into four broad categories: land/buildings, business facilities (e.g. music studios, health facilities), retail spaces (e.g. supermarkets, hotels) and industrial sites (e.g. steel plants). – Weak or non-existent reporting requirements by professions involved in the purchase of commercial real estate contributed to the ease with which illicit funds were laundered.Recommendations 1.FinCEN should adopt a reporting obligation for multiple real estate professionals in a cascading order to ensure the requirement falls on at least one U.S.-based entity involved in the transaction, from both the buyer and the seller. As attorneys are legally required to be part of the closing process in almost 20 states, attorneys should be included with specific reference to the function they perform in the transaction.The rule should cover transfers of ownership that do not constitute a sale. Current rules only refer to purchases of real property by a legal entity. However, numerous cases of real estate money laundering simply involve the transfer of ownership or creation of equitable interest in the property without an actual sale. FinCEN should expand the types of transactions covered to include direct/indirect transfers of ownership or creation of equitable interest in the property.The rule should cover transactions by trusts: An increasing proportion of housing is now owned by legal entities and arrangements, including trusts. In Los Angeles, for example, 23% of rental units are owned by trusts. Both foreign and some domestic trusts are excluded from the purview of the Corporate Transparency Act. We recommend that transactions by all different classes of legal entities and legal arrangements be included in any prospective rule.

Washington, DC: Global Financial Integrity, 2024. 21p.

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA)

A wastewater analysis has indicated that in Europe, cocaine from South America is now being consumed in smaller towns, as well as major urban areas.

The report, published on March 20 by the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA), is the institution’s latest annual overview of drug residues used to estimate cocaine consumption across participant cities in Europe. This year, the report analyzed results from approximately 90 cities and towns, though several major cities, including London, Madrid, and Berlin, did not participate.

It found that the Belgian city of Antwerp, a vital port for the arrival of drugs from Latin America to Europe, remains the continent’s cocaine consumption capital, while eastern European states — particularly the Czech Republic and Slovakia — continue to dominate in methamphetamine consumption, though that is changing slowly.

The report also looked beyond the European Union for the first time to compare residues at a global level, including cities in the United States and Brazil in its analysis.

Researchers tested the cities’ sewage systems for indications of how much cocaine the population is consuming, which they estimate in milligrams per 1,000 inhabitants per day (mg/1000p/day).

Wastewater studies measure only drugs that have been consumed, not those that were dumped, João Matias, a scientific analyst at the EMCDDA and one of the authors of the study, told InSight Crime.

“Once inside our bodies, the drug is metabolized. Once excreted to the sewage system, researchers can take samples before the water is treated. We look for the metabolites produced after the use of a specific substance,” said Matias.

Here, InSight Crime analyzes the report’s findings on the increasing prevalence of cocaine and methamphetamine outside of major cities in Europe, as well as new data from non-EU cities.

Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg 2024. 16p.