By Stephen Reimer and Matthew Redhead

Numerous deadly terrorist attacks across Europe – from the 2015 Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris and the Manchester Arena bombing of 2016 to the far-right firearms assault in Hanau, Germany in early 2020 – demonstrate that self-activating terrorism (sometimes referred to as lone actor or small cell terrorism) has become a major security concern for the continent. Much of the current ‘conventional wisdom’ around these kinds of actors assumes that terrorist financing and a counterterrorist financing (CTF) response are not relevant to this growing threat. Reports of attacks involving little to no preparation or financial resourcing have shaped a false perception that self-activator activity produces no usable financial intelligence. This has generated a high degree of unease among both CTF professionals in law enforcement, whose role it is to use legal investigatory powers to apprehend terrorists and would-be terrorists, and practitioners in the financial services sector, whose controls and instruments are designed to identify and report abuse of the financial system by terrorists planning attacks. The natural fear is that if the private sector cannot produce the kind of financial intelligence required, then law enforcement cannot do its job as effectively as it might. In light of this, the European Commission commissioned RUSI Europe to carry out this research study as part of Project CRAAFT, which seeks to answer two related research questions: 

• How do self-activating terrorists operating in Europe conduct their financial attack preparations? 
   

• How should the CTF regime be changed to meet this pervasive terrorist threat? 

For evidence, the research team reviewed relevant academic and policy literature and credible media reports, conducted 37 semi-structured interviews with relevant experts, reviewed 106 cases of successful and disrupted self-activated attacks in Europe between January 2015 and November 2020, and carried out three in-depth case study analyses. 

RUSI Occasional Paper, May 2021 51p.   

By Jakob Manthey, Jürgen Rehm,and Uwe Vertheina

With the enforcement of the Cannabis Act on 1 April 2024, Germany has adopted one of the most liberal legal approaches to cannabis on the continent. The German model prioritises a non-profit approach and precludes legal market mechanisms. We believe these are the main drivers for increasing cannabis use and related health problems, based on observations following cannabis legalisation in Canada and many states in the U.S. Although legalising cannabis possession and cultivation may not immediately eliminate the illegal market, it is expected to serve public health goals. Despite the overall positive evaluation of the Cannabis Act in Germany, there are three potential areas of concern: the potential for misuse of the medical system, the normalization of cannabis use, and the influence of the cannabis industry. The German model may herald the beginning of a new generation of European cannabis policies, but concerted efforts will be required to ensure that these policy reforms serve rather than undermine public health goals.

The LANCET Regional Health - Europe, Vol 42 July, 2024

The European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA)

A wastewater analysis has indicated that in Europe, cocaine from South America is now being consumed in smaller towns, as well as major urban areas.

The report, published on March 20 by the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA), is the institution’s latest annual overview of drug residues used to estimate cocaine consumption across participant cities in Europe. This year, the report analyzed results from approximately 90 cities and towns, though several major cities, including London, Madrid, and Berlin, did not participate.

It found that the Belgian city of Antwerp, a vital port for the arrival of drugs from Latin America to Europe, remains the continent’s cocaine consumption capital, while eastern European states — particularly the Czech Republic and Slovakia — continue to dominate in methamphetamine consumption, though that is changing slowly.

The report also looked beyond the European Union for the first time to compare residues at a global level, including cities in the United States and Brazil in its analysis.

Researchers tested the cities’ sewage systems for indications of how much cocaine the population is consuming, which they estimate in milligrams per 1,000 inhabitants per day (mg/1000p/day).

Wastewater studies measure only drugs that have been consumed, not those that were dumped, João Matias, a scientific analyst at the EMCDDA and one of the authors of the study, told InSight Crime.

“Once inside our bodies, the drug is metabolized. Once excreted to the sewage system, researchers can take samples before the water is treated. We look for the metabolites produced after the use of a specific substance,” said Matias.

Here, InSight Crime analyzes the report’s findings on the increasing prevalence of cocaine and methamphetamine outside of major cities in Europe, as well as new data from non-EU cities.

Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg 2024. 16p.

Edited by Ivan Sammut, Jelena Agranovska

This book is the result of an academic project, funded by the Hercules Programme of the European Commission to study legislation dealing with crimes against the Financial Interest of the EU awarded to the Department of  European and Comparative Law within the Faculty of Laws of the University of Malta. The study deals with the notion of criminal law at the European Union level as well as the relationship between the EU legal order and the national legal order. The focus of the study is on the development of EU criminal legislation aimed at protecting the financial interests of the EU, with a focus on cybercrime, fraud and public spending. It starts with the current legal basis in the TFEU, followed by the development of EU legislation in the area as well as the legislation of relevant bodies, such as EPO, OLAF and EUROPOL. The study tackles how this legislation is being received by the national legal orders, whereby eleven EU Member States are selected based on size, geography and legal systems. These Member States are France, Ireland, Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Malta, Spain, Latvia, Greece and Poland. A comparative study is made between those sections of EU criminal law dealing with the financial interests of the EU in these Member States to analyse the current legislation and propose future developments. The study, which is led by the editors based at the University of Malta, examines the subject from a European perspective. Besides the European perspective, the  study focuses on national case-studies, followed by a comparative analysis.

The Hague: Eleven International Publishing, 2020. 340p.

Edited by Marcelo F. Aebi, Stefano Caneppele, Lorena Molnar 

Cybercrime has become part of everyday life. We live in hybrid societies, fluctuating between the material and the virtual world, and we are hence confronted with online, offline and hybrid offences. However, the few victimisation surveys conducted in Europe reveal that victims of online crimes seldom report them to the police. Consequently, cybercrimes – which according to the best estimates represent between one third and more than half of all attempted and completed crimes in Europe – seldom appear in national criminal statistics. The State seems powerless to prevent them and private security companies flourish. 

During two days, experts from all over the continent gathered together in the framework of a virtual conference organized by the Council of Europe and the European Union to discuss what we know, what we do not know, and what we could do to improve our knowledge of crime in our contemporary hybrid societies, develop evidence-based criminal policies, provide assistance to crime victims, and implement realistic programs in the field of crime prevention and offender treatment. This book presents their experiences, reflexions, and proposals.

The Hague: Eleven International Publishing, 2022. 154p.

Edited by Nils Duquet  

This report contains the 7 country studies  – Belgium, Estonia, the Netherlands, Poland, Serbia, Spain and Sweden –  that were undertaken as part of the second phase of project TARGET. While the reader will be able to observe interesting similarities between the situations in these countries, it is clear that gun violence in Europe is not a homogenous phenomenon.

In the first phase of Project TARGET quantitative and qualitative data on gun violence and firearm trafficking was collected in 34 European countries (27 Member States of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and six countries in the Western Balkans). In a second phase, dedicated research teams analysed the situation in seven European countries in depth. The results of the comparative analysis of all the data collected during the different phases of Project TARGET were published in the report Targeting gun violence and trafficking in Europe that was published by the Flemish Peace Institute in December 2021.

This project was coordinated by the Flemish Peace Institute and cofunded by the European Union. The research partners in this project were Leiden University, Arquebus Solutions, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, and the Victimology Society of Serbia. The project was supported by Europol, the Dutch National Police, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (UNDP’s SEESAC) and the European Centre for Drugs and Drugs Addiction (EMCDDA).

Firearm trafficking and gun violence go hand in hand in Europe. An important reason for this is that criminals generally do not have access to legally-held firearms and thus need to resort to illicit gun markets – either locally or internationally - to acquire firearms. Yet, while all European countries are confronted with a certain degree of firearm trafficking, the levels of gun violence and the availability of firearms on criminal markets differ substantially across Europe. In recent years firearm trafficking has fuelled criminal gun violence and even terrorism in several European countries, but other countries seem to be much less affected. This book contains chapters on gun violence and firearm trafficking in seven different European countries: Belgium, Estonia, the Netherlands, Poland, Serbia, Spain and Sweden. While the reader will be able to observe interesting similarities between the situations in these countries, it is clear that gun violence in Europe is not a homogenous phenomenon. The country-specific analyses in this book were undertaken as part of Project TARGET, a large-scale research project on the linkages between gun violence and firearm trafficking in Europe. This project was coordinated by the Flemish Peace Institute, an independent research institute affiliated to the Flemish Parliament (Belgium), and cofunded by the European Union’s Internal Security Fund. The research partners in this project were Leiden University, Arquebus Solutions, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, and the Victimology Society of Serbia. The project was supported by Europol, the Dutch National Police, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the South Eastern and Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons (UNDP’s SEESAC) and the European Centre for Drugs and Drugs Addiction (EMCDDA). In the first phase of Project TARGET quantitative and qualitative data on gun violence and firearm trafficking was collected in 34 European countries (27 Member States of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and six countries in the Western Balkans). In a second phase, dedicated research teams analysed the situation in seven European countries in depth. This is done in an attempt to describe the dynamics of gun violence, firearm trafficking and the possible linkages between both phenomena. In a third phase various interviews were undertaken to complement the collected data. The results of the comparative analysis of all the data collected during the different phases of Project TARGET were published in the report “Targeting gun violence and trafficking in Europe” that was published by the Flemish Peace Institute in December 2021. This book  contains the country studies that were undertaken as part of the second phase of the project. The first chapter of this book focuses on Belgium, a European country that is traditionally known for its history and passion for firearms. Although no reliable estimates of the illegal firearms possession rate in Belgium exist, law enforcement agencies in the country believe the availability of firearms on the criminal market has increased in recent years. Belgium has a reputation as a hotspot for illicit firearm trafficking in Europe, with criminal demand driven by drugs traffickers and armed robbers. Yet, different types of criminals tend to possess and use different types of firearms in Belgium. While armed robbers tend to use handguns, including blank firing weapons and modified firearms to threaten their victims, drugs criminals more often use their firearms in shootings. Military-grade firearms - very often smuggled conflict legacy weapons from the Western Balkans but also reactivated firearms - are more often used in the drugs context than in other criminal contexts. These types of weapons have also ended up in the hands of terrorists after being trafficked via Belgium. While clear linkages can be observed between firearm trafficking and criminal and terrorist violence, the impact of firearm trafficking on domestic violence is quite limited since this type of violence is generally carried out with firearms that are available to the perpetrator at that time, including legally-held firearms and ‘non-regularized’ firearms that are not trafficked. In Estonia, the focus of the second chapter of this book, firearm trafficking and gun violence are rather rare phenomena, and a clear-cut connection between them has not been observed in recent years. While both phenomena were significant security problems in Estonia in the decade after the country regained its independence from the Soviet regime, this is no longer the case. Firearm trafficking is quite limited and often involves the reactivation of firearms. Organised crime groups are not frequently involved in firearm trafficking; it is mainly carried out by opportunistic individuals on an ad hoc basis. Criminal gun violence is rather exceptional since the use of firearms by criminals is marginal. Incidents of gun violence largely occur in the family context and involve the consumption of alcohol. The perpetrators in such incidents are generally not criminals and lack access to trafficked firearms. Unsurprisingly, almost 40% of the firearms homicides are committed with a legally-held firearms. The other firearm homicides were committed with an illegally-held firearm, but these firearms are generally not trafficked weapons. Instead, often non-regularised firearms, which have been held illegally since the Second World War or since the proliferation of firearms after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s are being used. The third chapter of this book analyses gun violence and firearm trafficking in The Netherlands. Like in Belgium, a strong nexus between firearm trafficking and drugrelated criminal violence can be observed in The Netherlands. The very lucrative character of cocaine-trafficking, but also the presence of synthetic drug production and trafficking in the country, has increased criminal demand for firearms and boosted firearm trafficking, including in military-grade firearms. This has fuelled violent competition between organised crime groups, resulted in an arms race between criminals and boosted shootings in the criminal milieu. This criminal gun violence has also spilled over to other parts of society with recent high-profile shootings of a lawyer and a crime journalist. Over the years, The Netherlands has become an important destination and transit country for the various types of firearm trafficking in Europe, including the smuggling of conflict legacy weapons from the Western Balkans and reactivated firearms from Slovakia. The fourth chapter of this book focuses on Poland, which has one of the lowest firearms homicide rates in Europe. The low level of gun violence in the country is strongly connected to the low levels of firearm trafficking and the low criminal demand for firearms in the country. Yet, like in Estonia, this was not always the case: after the collapse of the Soviet Union, firearm trafficking increased substantially with emerging criminal groups fighting each other for control over lucrative criminal markets. Since the mid-1990s the number of firearms seizures increased and reached its peak around 2000, with a significant portion of the firearms being smuggled into the country from Czechia and Slovakia. Although firearms seizures have gradually decreased afterwards, these two countries can still be considered key source countries. Poland has also become more of a transit country than a destination country with regard to firearm trafficking. In recent years the number of firearm seizures at the border has increased strongly. Especially firearm trafficking at the border with Ukraine has become a key concern for Polish law enforcement agencies, who warn about the future risk for increased trafficking in conflict-legacy weapons from Ukraine. In the fifth chapter gun violence and firearm trafficking in Serbia are analysed. Serbia is characterised by a high rate of both legal as well as illegal firearms possession, resulting from a cultural and historical tradition of firearms possession and production, and from its recent history of armed conflict and political instability. Firearms possession is dominated by young and middle-aged men and largely motivated by tradition, hunting and self-defence. Although the scope of illicit firearm possession is difficult to estimate, this possession is widely believed to be significant. The armed conflicts in the region have fuelled gun violence within Serbia and in other European countries. During these armed conflicts large amounts of firearms have ended up in the hands of civilians, where many of them have stayed for numerous years. An unknown share of these conflict legacy weapons have in recent decades, however, also been smuggled to other parts of Europe, where they are being used in the criminal milieu. Illegally-held conflict legacy firearms are not only trafficked out of the country, but also used by criminals – especially armed robbers – within the country. Gun violence in Serbia is mainly a ‘male phenomenon’ with male perpetrators and victims, with the exception of gun violence in a family context in which most victims are women. Gun violence in this context also tends to be far more lethal than in the criminal context and, like in other countries, frequently involve legally-held firearms. The sixth chapter of this book focuses on Spain, where the scope of both lethal and non-lethal gun violence has strongly decreased over the years. Yet, in the southern part of Spain gun violence, strongly connected to drug trafficking, is a significant security issue. Criminal gun violence in Spain mainly consists of (often lethal) incidents related to score-settling between crime groups involved in drug trafficking and the (generally non-lethal) use of firearms in armed robberies. In the criminal milieu especially handguns are used. The criminal acquisition of these firearms is clearly linked to international firearm trafficking, and especially the trafficking in reactivated and converted firearms. While high-level criminal groups, especially those in the south of the country, tend to have access to wide range of firearms, including automatic rifles, lower-end criminals tend to rely on lesser quality firearms. Domestic gun violence on the other hand, is not clearly linked to firearm trafficking. In such incidents of gun violence especially long guns are used, which are believed to be mainly legally held. In the final chapter the situation in Sweden is analysed. Gun violence in Sweden has increased dramatically in the last decade and this evolution is strongly connected to firearm trafficking. Increased firearm trafficking into the country has led to a greater supply of firearms in general but also automatic firearms in particular. For a long time, most of the firearms trafficked into Sweden came from the Western Balkans. Yet, since the mid-2010s the supply of firearms diversified with, next to the steady supply of firearms from the Balkans, also the increased supply of reactivated firearms and (converted) blank firing weapons. This diversification has opened up new pathways for criminals to access firearms, which in turn lowered the threshold for gun violence especially by younger criminals. As a result, the profile of gun violence in the country in recent decades has shifted away from incidents in the family context, which tend to take place in private settings and often involve legally-held firearms, towards more incidents in the criminal context, which generally take place in public settings and involve illegally-held firearms. Resorting to gun violence has become an established norm in the criminal milieu in Sweden and has, in turn, boosted firearm trafficking since criminal groups are now often involved in a miniature arms race. Consequently, Sweden has become one of the most important hotspots for gun violence in Europe. In a global perspective, levels of gun violence and firearm trafficking in Europe can be considered relatively low. Yet, both phenomena continue to have serious security implications in Europe. Policy initiatives to prevent gun violence and combat firearm trafficking are hindered by the lack of a clear intelligence picture. With this book we aim to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of both gun violence and firearms trafficking across Europe, and to a better understanding of the dynamics between these two phenomena. Even in a region with relatively low levels of gun violence and firearm trafficking, the lack of a sound understanding of these phenomena can have far-reaching consequences for peace and security in our societies

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2022. 444p

By Katharina Kru¨sselmannI, Pauline Aarten, Marieke Liem

Background

Higher availability of firearms has been connected to higher rates of interpersonal violence in previous studies. Yet, those studies have focused mainly on the United States, or used aggregated international data to study firearm violence. Whether those aggregated findings are applicable to understanding the phenomenon in continental Europe specifically remains unclear. The aim of this systematic review is to bring together all studies that exclusively use European data.

Methods

Nine databases were searched, resulting in more than 1900 individual studies. These studies were assessed on relevance and eligibility for this study, based on their title, abstract and full text. Information on study characteristics, operationalizations of main concepts and study results were extracted from the six eligible studies.

Results

Four studies assessed the impact of firearm restrictive regulations on the rate of firearm homicides. Two other studies correlated rates of firearm availability and -violence. Results vary: some studies show a clear decline once availability of firearms is restricted, while others indicate a limited effect on only a very specific subgroup, such as female victims, or national guards with weapons at home. Moreover, studies used various operationalizations for firearm availability, thereby decreasing the comparability of findings.

Conclusion

Empirical research exclusively using European data is still lacking. To increase comparability of future studies, methodological inconsistencies and regional gaps need to be overcome. Assessing how firearm availability can be measured with reliable and valid proxies across countries will be a crucial first step to improve future research on the link between firearms and firearm violence.

PLoS One. 2021 Apr 14;16(4):e0248955. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0248955. PMID: 33852590; PMCID: PMC8046231.

By: Atanas Rusev, Tihomir Bezlov, Flamma Terenghi

Organized property crime is a pervasive issue across all EU Member States, demanding immediate and collective action. V-BAR specifically targets one aspect of organized property crime: motor vehicle crime, encompassing theft and the illicit trade of stolen vehicle parts. Despite a decline in vehicle theft, the overall prevalence of motor vehicle crime remains alarmingly high. This comprehensive report outlines V-BAR’s objectives in enhancing operational cooperation between EU law enforcement authorities and private partners to combat the menace posed by mobile organized crime groups involved in vehicle theft. Additionally, the report delves into an extensive investigation of motor vehicle theft trends within six EU countries, namely Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, France, and The Netherlands, providing valuable insights for combating this form of criminal activity.

CrimRxiv. https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.af77f1d4 2023.