By Marta Capinha, Daniel Rijo, Marco Pereira, Marlene Matos

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a major concern across the world, and its prevalence assessment has been a priority in numerous countries. However, data about IPV prevalence in Portugal is scarce and not up-to-date. This study aims to estimate IPV prevalence in Portugal. A community sample of 1392 adults (77.4% female, mean age=34.95 years, SD=12.80) was collected through a web-based survey, between March and June of 2020. Participants completed a socio-demographic questionnaire and the Conflict Tactic Scales-2 (CTS-2). Accounting for all forms of IPV, a past-year prevalence of 64.4% and 64.6% were found, for victimization and perpetration, respectively. Regarding gender or sexual orientation, no significant differences were found in the past-year or the lifetime prevalence, nor concerning frequency. Directionality and dyadic concordance types were analyzed and showed that most violence was bidirectional. Having perpetrated violence in previous intimate relationships was the most influential factor when predicting past-year perpetration or victimization. Other significant predictors were age, being victimized before 15 years old, cohabitation with an intimate partner, and drug use, but the last two were only significant for victimization. Findings support the idea that IPV is a relevant phenomenon, regardless of gender and sexual orientation. It is the first nationwide, gender-inclusive study to do so in Portugal. Studies based on different samples might provide important evidence to prevent hasty conclusions about IPV prevalence and patterns and to guide empirically driven policies. 

European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research (2024) 30:503–520 

By Nick Drydakis

This study investigates the relationship between social vulnerability, illegal activities, and location-based business disruptions in Athens, the capital of Greece. The research utilizes repeated cross-sectional data from 2008, 2014, and 2023, gathered from areas with high levels of criminal activity, reflecting the experiences of business owners and managers in these locations. The findings reveal that heightened levels of social vulnerability—including the presence of illicit drug users and homeless individuals—alongside illegal activities such as gang-related protection rackets and black-market operations, are associated with increased location-based business disruptions. These disruptions manifest in assaults on employees and customers, business burglaries, reputational damage, supply chain problems, and decreased turnover. The study also examines the impact of economic conditions in 2014 and 2023, when Greece's Gross Domestic Product was lower than in 2008, indicating an economic recession. The findings suggest that the economic downturn during these years further exacerbated location-based business disruptions. Conversely, enhanced public safety measures, such as increased police presence, law enforcement, and improved public infrastructure, were associated with a reduction in these disruptions. Furthermore, an interesting insight was that businesses with longer operating histories tend to experience fewer location-based disruptions, indicating that operating history might be perceived as a resilience factor. The study suggests that policy actions should focus on increasing police visibility, providing financial support to high-risk businesses, funding urban regeneration projects, maintaining public infrastructure, and delivering social services aimed at helping marginalized communities escape vulnerability.

 Bonn:  IZA – Institute of Labor Economic, 2024. 46p.

By Joseph Quesnel

Elected Representatives and the media are confused about what police independence means in Canada. Media accuse politicians who address policy issues with police of interfering in police operations. Ongoing pro-Palestinian protests in Canada have led to Canadians questioning police willingness to enforce the law in the face of troubled protest behaviour that has crossed into criminality. Canadians want police to enforce the law unbiasedly and believe police are accountable to the public. In examining the origins and evolution of Canada’s police independence doctrine, this study will show that Canadians have a point as our police are responsible to government ministers, meaning they are accountable to the Canadian public. However, Canadians know that the police must be insulated from political pressures. Canadian history contains examples of elected representatives inappropriately interfering in police operations. Perhaps the term ‘independence’ is inappropriate, given police are subject to laws, policies, and ministerial oversight. Police are autonomous, not independent. The study proposes a model of made-in-Canada democratic policing, allowing politicians to properly converse with police on policy directions while avoiding a form of “governmental policing” where elected representatives too easily influence police operations with partisan politics. Finally, the study’s policy recommendations set Canada toward “apolitical and autonomous” policing.

Winnipeg: Frontier Centre for Public Policy. 2024. 26p.

By Matt Gibbs, Melissa Goldman, Machiko Hodge, Susan Newell, Susan Nicolson, Kerry O’Donohue, Ashlee Parcell, and Georgia van der Westhuizen

The treatment of children in the criminal justice system, some as young as 10 years old, is one of the most urgent human rights issues facing Australia today. Numerous inquiries and reviews, including Royal Commissions, as well as UN Committees, have highlighted serious breaches of rights and systemic problems with our child justice and related systems over many years. However, Australia continually fails to implement evidence-based reforms to our child justice systems which would reduce offending behaviour and make our communities safer. This report investigates opportunities for reform of child justice and related systems across Australia, based on evidence and the protection of human rights. It is the result of a project undertaken by the National Children’s Commissioner (NCC) in 2023–24. The project included a submissions process, consultations with children and young people, families, community members, and interviews and roundtables with government and non government stakeholders across Australia. Australia is not protecting the rights of children Children’s rights are set out in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child (CRC), and other international instruments that Australia has ratified. Australia’s lawmakers and decision makers have obligations to take all possible measures to help all children in Australia realise their rights. However, reports and inquiries continue to highlight how our systems fail to protect their human rights. Many children at risk of or in contact with the criminal justice system are dealing with multiple and complex issues in their lives which often contribute significantly to their chances of offending and reoffending. Their lack of basic ‘Help way earlier!’ rights often manifest as the drivers of their contact with the justice system in the first place, including poverty, intergenerational trauma, violence and abuse, racism, homelessness, and inadequate healthcare. These social determinants of justice show that children’s rights to health, safety, culture, participation, non-discrimination, adequate standards of living, and education are not being realised. When children enter the justice system, they may face additional breaches of their rights. For example, despite what we know about the harmful effects of detention on children, children as young as 10 can be detained in most parts of Australia. The overwhelming majority of these children are unsentenced, on remand, with some detained because there is no safe place for them to live while on bail. When they enter detention, many have disabilities and mental health issues, and are harmed by the conditions in detention, including extended periods of time in isolation in their cells, as noted in numerous official reports. First Nations children and young people continue to be overrepresented in the criminal justice system, and particularly in detention. Children and young people told us what children need in order to stay out of trouble The voices of 150 children and young people are at the centre of this report. Children and young people said that children want to be safe and to have a place to live. They want to participate in positive activities, and they want friends and supportive family relationships. Children want to be heard and have their views taken seriously. They want to be able to go to school and one day get a job. Children want to get extra help for themselves and their family members when it's needed  Children and young people said these things would help children to stay out of trouble with the police and reduce their contact with the child justice system. A national, child rights-based approach to reform is required Recommendations from many inquiries, including Royal Commissions, have attempted to guide reform, in particular by focusing on prevention and early intervention in both child justice and child protection systems. However, responses have been piecemeal, uncoordinated and inadequate. Despite evidence of the social determinants that are the root causes of offending behaviour, policy responses to these children are often only tinkering with the symptoms, with tougher policing, stricter bail laws, and incarceration. This is done under the guise of keeping the community safe. However, human rights and community safety are not opposing goals. The solutions lie in transformational thinking and action to address systemic disadvantage. Many stakeholders, in submissions, interviews and roundtables, argued that the scale of the child rights crisis in Australia requires a nationally coordinated approach to reform. This type of reform should be driven by: Australian Governments establishing a National Taskforce for Reform of Child Justice Systems, that develops a 10-year cross-portfolio National Roadmap to reform the Australian Government appointing a Cabinet Minister for Children the Australian Government establishing a Ministerial Council for Child Wellbeing, chaired by the Minister for Children, and reporting to National Cabinet the Australian Government legislating a National Children’s Act as well as a Human Rights Act, incorporating the Convention on the Rights of the Child. Reform also requires positioning children at the centre of policy-making and service delivery; empowering First Nations children, families and communities; optimising community-based action; building a capable and child specialised workforce; basing systems on data and evidence; and embedding accountability for the rights of children. Multiple barriers have stood in the way of child rights and evidence-based reform Stakeholders, in interviews, roundtables and submissions to this project, identified barriers to achieving critical reform. They argued that unless these barriers are addressed, transforming the child justice and wellbeing landscape in Australia will not be possible. Barriers include systemic racism; the fragmented way our governments operate; limited workforce capacity; lack of political commitment to evidence-based reform; pervasive ‘tough on crime’ rhetoric; and our persistent failure to make child wellbeing a national priority. These barriers to reform will not be addressed by a ‘business as usual’ approach. Transformational reform requires political will at all levels, including states and territories, and strong leadership, collaboration and coordination at the national level. Australian governments should coordinate across the federation to protect the rights of children in their laws, policies and service systems, and in doing so create a safer community for all.  

Sydney: Australian Human Rights Commission, 2024. 195p.

By Anthony Morgan

This report examines the effect of money laundering on the harm associated with organised crime by linking data on organised crime groups known to law enforcement, and data on suspicious transactions reported to the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC). This study is the first step in assessing the social and economic harms associated with money laundering and terrorism financing in Australia.

Key Findings

• Suspicious matter reports captured a high proportion of individuals and groups known by law enforcement to be involved in organised crime.

• Known organised crime groups accounted for a very small proportion of suspicious matter reports.

• The amount of money laundered by groups varied according to where they laundered their funds and whether they had professional facilitators.

• The presence and amount of money laundering was consistently associated with an increase in recorded crime-related harm and the probability of organised crime.

• Evidence indicates that the laundering of illicit funds preceded increases in crime-related harm.

Consultancy Report Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2024. 73p.

By Jason Beaman

This final research report describes a project that used various data sources to analyze the relationship between methamphetamine usage metrics, such as overdose deaths and related crimes, and violent crime such as rape and robbery, in order to inform law enforcement and other stakeholders of upstream prevention for crimes related to methamphetamine use. The project’s key objectives included developing a dashboard, analyzing methamphetamine-crime intersections, and assessing the influence of social determinants of health (SDOH) of methamphetamine use. Results demonstrated significant correlations between methamphetamine overdoses and violent crimes, especially economic-compulsive crimes. The report highlights distinct patterns and geographic variations among rural and American Indian communities. The report notes that results emphasize the complex interplay between methamphetamine use, violent crime, and socio-economic factors, and it advocates for targeted prevention strategies. It also offers the Oklahoma Methamphetamine Data Initiative (OKMDI) framework for addressing substance use and violence as a tool for policymakers and law enforcement.

Stillwater, OK: Oklahoma State University, 2024. 39p.

By Ben Mostyn

This article presents archival data produced by Australian diplomats in the 1980s that report on the ‘drug problem’ in various host countries. The reports reveal growing concern in many countries at a rapid increase in drug use. The second half of the article focusses on diplomatic reports from the United Nations where discussions were beginning about creating a third convention against drug trafficking. These early drafts of the convention labelled drug trafficking a ‘crime against humanity’—a criminal charge that had not been prosecuted since the Nuremburg trials. The article applies elements of moral panic theory, neorealism, and the sociology of punishment. Combining these theories suggests that condemning drug traffickers in the 1980s allowed diplomats to create a global social solidarity that may have helped end the Cold War.

Critical Criminology, August 2024. Crit Crim (2024).

By Sintiki Tarfa Ugbe, et al.

This policy brief by the West African Epidemiology Network on Drug Use (WENDU) details regional drug use trends for 2023. Based on data from 11 countries, the brief reviews supply, consumption, treatment opportunities and counter-narcotics efforts. In a continuing trend, cannabis dominates the regional substance use data matrix, followed by medical opioids. However, alcohol use disorders are growing across multiple countries and, worryingly, more minors are getting caught in the toxic web of drug use. Recommendations • The increasing involvement of minors in drug use demands the urgent introduction of comprehensive substance abuse prevention programmes across all educational levels. • Given the rising prevalence of substance abuse among women and their limited access to treatment opportunities, women-focused rehabilitation centres are urgently needed. • There is a need for regionwide adoption of the Alternative to Incarceration programme introduced by ECOWAS. • ECOWAS and political leaders across West Africa need an evidence-based and context-appropriate stance on the region’s cannabis problem.  

Issue 32, WENDU policy brief 2 | September 2024 24p.

By Michael J. Zoorob,; Ju Nyeong Park,; Alex H. Kral,; et al

Importance: With the implementation of Measure 110 (M110) in 2021, Oregon became the first US state to decriminalize small amounts of any drug for personal use. To date, no analysis of the association of this law with overdose mortality has fully accounted for the introduction of fentanyl-a substance that is known to drive fatal overdose-to Oregon's unregulated drug market.

Objective: To evaluate whether the decriminalization of drug possession in Oregon was associated with changes in fatal drug overdose rates after accounting for the rapid spread of fentanyl in Oregon's unregulated drug market.

Design, setting, and participants: In this cohort study, the association between fatal overdose and enactment of M110 was analyzed using a matrix completion synthetic control method. The control group consisted of the 48 US states and Washington, DC, all of which did not decriminalize drugs. The rapid spread of fentanyl in unregulated drug markets was determined using the state-level percentage of all samples reported to the National Forensic Laboratory Information System that were identified as fentanyl or its analogues. Mortality data were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2022. Data analysis was performed from fall 2023 through spring 2024.

Exposures: Measure 110 took effect in Oregon on February 1, 2021.

Main outcomes and measures: The primary outcome assessed was fatal drug overdose rates per half-year. A changepoint analysis also determined when each state experienced a rapid escalation of fentanyl in its unregulated drug market.

Results: In this analysis, rapid spread of fentanyl in Oregon's unregulated drug supply occurred in the first half of 2021, contemporaneous with enactment of M110. A positive crude association was found between drug decriminalization and fatal overdose rate per 100 000 per half year (estimate [SE], 1.83 [0.47]; P < .001). After adjusting for the spread of fentanyl as a confounder, the effect size changed signs (estimate [SE], -0.51 [0.61]; P = .41) and there was no longer an association between decriminalization and overdose mortality in Oregon. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with this result.

Conclusions and relevance: In this cohort study of fatal drug overdose and the spread of fentanyl through Oregon's unregulated drug market, no association between M110 and fatal overdose rates was observed. Future evaluations of the health effects of drug policies should account for changes in the composition of unregulated drug markets.  

JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(9):e2431612. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.31612

By Drug Policy Alliance

In 2020, Oregon voters overwhelmingly approved Ballot Measure 110. This made Oregon the first state in the U.S. to decriminalize possession of small amounts of all drugs, while greatly expanding addiction services and social supports. But in 2024, state leaders recriminalized drug possession after a disinformation campaign led by drug war defenders and backed by corporate interests. Statewide criminal penalties for drug possession returned on September 1, 2024. Promised deflection programs were not ready, meaning people will be arrested and prosecuted because of their addictions. As before, drug use will be used as an excuse to arrest Black and Brown Oregonians at higher rates (they are statistically more likely to face incarceration and harsher sentencing due to targeted policing and enforcement). Oregon’s public defender shortage continues. People who are arrested will likely have their cases dismissed for lack of counsel. In a return to the failed war on drugs, people will cycle through the criminal legal system without connection to services. The successes of Measure 110 should neither be downplayed nor contributed to H.B. 4002. Measure 110 provided over $300 million for addiction services, including a program where police connect people to care without arrest. Policymakers must focus on implementing a thorough public health approach to drugs and real solutions to other pressing issues, not on the false promises of criminalizing drug possession.

New York: Drug Policy Alliance, 2024. 5p.

By Russ Scott

Australia has one of the highest rates in the world of the use of the crystalline form of methamphetamine, a highly addictive stimulant that is often associated with a chronic, relapsing dependency. Methamphetamine use is associated with both acquisitive and violent offending, which cause substantial personal and societal costs. Whilst the short-term euphoria and stimulation provide a positive reinforcement to methamphetamine use, the aversive states of withdrawing from methamphetamine and the associated craving, which may last up to five weeks into abstinence, underlie the negative reinforcement to continued methamphetamine use. Although many methamphetamine-dependent users experience high levels of psychological distress, it is likely that less than half engage with treatment or support services, and current intervention and treatment programmes have high discontinuation rates. Stigma and discrimination, even from paramedics and health clinicians, are prominent barriers to methamphetamine-dependent users accessing treatment in Australia

Psychiatry, Psychology and Law; Vol. 31, No. 4, 671–704,, 2024

By Delvon T. Mattingly  , Maggie K. Richardson ,  Joy L. Hart

Introduction: Cannabis use is increasing due to several factors including the adoption of laws legalizing its use across the United States (US). We examined changes in current cannabis use among US youth and adults and by key socio-demographic groups. Methods: Using data from the 2013–2022 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (n=543,195), we estimated the prevalence of (2013–2019, 2020, 2021–2022) and trends in (2013–2019, 2021–2022) current (i.e., past 30- day) cannabis use among US youth (aged 12–17) and adults (aged 18+) overall and by age, gender, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, and total annual family income. We also examined sociodemographic factors associated with use from 2013 to 2019, in 2020, and from 2021 to 2022. Results: Cannabis use increased from 7.59 % to 11.48 % in 2013–2019, was 11.54 % in 2020, and increased again from 13.13 % to 15.11 % in 2021–2022. Among youth, cannabis use remained constant from 2013 to 2019 and 2021–2022. In 2022, use was highest among aged 18–34, male, non-Hispanic multiracial, and generally lower SES adults. From 2021–2022, cannabis use increased among several groups such as adults who were aged 35–49 (14.25–17.23 %), female (11.21–13.00 %), and Hispanic (10.42–13.50 %). Adults who were aged 18–25, male, non-Hispanic multiracial, some college educated, and of lower annual family income had consistently higher odds of current cannabis use from 2013 to 2019, in 2020, and from 2021 to 2022. Conclusions: Cannabis use is increasing overall and among certain sociodemographic groups. Our findings inform prevention and harm reduction efforts aimed at mitigating the prevalence of cannabis use in the US. 

Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports 12 (2024) 10025 

By Andy Hochstetler1,2, David J. Peters1, Kyle Burgason1, Jeff Bouffard1, Glenn Sterner III3, Shannon Monnat

Introduction: The goal of this project was to identify rural jurisdictions with high drug overdose rates and collaborate with resourced mentors to create law enforcement intelligence responses to local opioid problems. Methods: The first part of the strategy was to control for known contributors to opioid death that are largely beyond the control of law enforcement, and thereby focus on jurisdictions that are outliers in terms of drug problems. (Work products include a Non-Metropolitan County Opioid Overdose Calculator that allows one to examine how demographics and other county conditions affect overdose risk.) Use of maps of drug overdose deaths identified high overdose places by drug type with a classification technique to group places with like drug problems (latent profile analysis) and a multiple regression data analysis to identify outliers. A survey of law enforcement agencies provided an understanding of intelligence resources available in rural areas and agencies. This information informed recruitment of enthusiastic participant agencies. A small scale, intelligence strategy appropriate to resource deprived, rural departments was developed in collaboration with participating agencies, leaving them great flexibility in design. Evaluation of outcomes included a survey, qualitative interviews providing anecdotal feedback, and official data that each department had decided would speak to successful implementation. Conclusions: Variables significantly predicting death rates include population, indicators of ethnic diversity, natural resource amenities, and labor market characteristics. Lagged indicators of drug deaths and prescribing rates are the most consistently significant and convincing block of variables as predictors of current death. The most successful departments implemented efforts based on what they had learned in previous collaborations with better resourced areas, where efforts led to arrests and judges supported use of intelligence in court proceedings, and either information sharing or use of electronic surveillance was supported such as using cell phone opening software. Also, closed network iPads were used in relation to controlled buys, search warrants, pre and post raids, evidence and picture recording during searches, overdose mapping, surveillance photos and messaging to the narcotics officer, confidential informant files and referencing files, and notes from scenes. ODMAP can inform efforts but proved difficult to use on mobile devices, lagging in time, and imprecise to use as daily actionable intelligence. Funds can be well spent in rural places, but investments in departments with little resource slack, lacking in administrative capacity, and where there are few personnel or hours of investment to spare are risky and make for difficult collaborations. Analytics and predictive problem solving are near impossible. Therefore, immediate and accessible intelligence for patrol officers without investment in analytics likely should be the goal.

Ames, IA: Iowa State University, 2023. 71p.

By Elizabeth Hacker, Ranjana Sharma, Jody Aked & Amit Timilsina

This research paper explores the findings from semi-structured interviews conducted with business owners operating spa and massage parlours, khaja ghars (snack shops), cabin/hostess bars, dance bars, and dohoris (folk-dance bars) in Kathmandu. It explores business owners’ perspectives on the day-to-day running of their businesses; the risks and stressors they face; their aspirations and motivations; and, where possible, their rationale for working with children, and the types of relationships they have with them.In addition to generating business-level evidence, the research provided evidence on a series of three business owner-led Action Research Groups, which began in February 2022 and continued until September 2023. These groups have generated theories of change, and will test and evaluate solutions to shift the system away from WFCL.

CLARISSA Research and Evidence Paper 6, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies

By Jorge García Hombrados and Lindsey Novak  

A sizable share of marriages in several Asian and African countries are initiated by the man abducting the woman he wishes to wed. In this paper, we use quantitative and qualitative methods to characterize the practice of abduction marriage in Ethiopia. We first present the results from in-depth qualitative surveys with community leaders and abducted women in the Gambella region of Ethiopia to gain a deeper understanding of how the practice functions in these communities. These interviews suggest that abduction is typically used to overcome the refusal of the woman’s family. Second, we use Demographic and Health Survey along with ethnographic data to characterize women and ethnic groups affected by this practice in Ethiopia. Finally, we empirically examine the central hypothesis about the persistence of this practice and find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that men often use abduction to improve bargaining power in marriage negotiations and reduce the size of the bride price payment. Specifically, we demonstrate that droughts—a proxy for income shocks in this setting— increase the probability of abduction marriage only for women from ethnic groups that traditionally exchange a bride price

Bonn:  IZA – Institute of Labor Economics . 2024. 50p.

By Stephen Reimer and Matthew Redhead

Numerous deadly terrorist attacks across Europe – from the 2015 Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris and the Manchester Arena bombing of 2016 to the far-right firearms assault in Hanau, Germany in early 2020 – demonstrate that self-activating terrorism (sometimes referred to as lone actor or small cell terrorism) has become a major security concern for the continent. Much of the current ‘conventional wisdom’ around these kinds of actors assumes that terrorist financing and a counterterrorist financing (CTF) response are not relevant to this growing threat. Reports of attacks involving little to no preparation or financial resourcing have shaped a false perception that self-activator activity produces no usable financial intelligence. This has generated a high degree of unease among both CTF professionals in law enforcement, whose role it is to use legal investigatory powers to apprehend terrorists and would-be terrorists, and practitioners in the financial services sector, whose controls and instruments are designed to identify and report abuse of the financial system by terrorists planning attacks. The natural fear is that if the private sector cannot produce the kind of financial intelligence required, then law enforcement cannot do its job as effectively as it might. In light of this, the European Commission commissioned RUSI Europe to carry out this research study as part of Project CRAAFT, which seeks to answer two related research questions: 

• How do self-activating terrorists operating in Europe conduct their financial attack preparations? 
   

• How should the CTF regime be changed to meet this pervasive terrorist threat? 

For evidence, the research team reviewed relevant academic and policy literature and credible media reports, conducted 37 semi-structured interviews with relevant experts, reviewed 106 cases of successful and disrupted self-activated attacks in Europe between January 2015 and November 2020, and carried out three in-depth case study analyses. 

RUSI Occasional Paper, May 2021 51p.   

By Peter Leasure, Maria M. Orsini and Dexter Ridgway

The current paper builds upon previous research and seeks to estimate the likelihood of a drug arrest/violation across race/ethnicity and gender using data from the Ohio State Highway Patrol. Research seeking to identify disparities is important as appropriate policy interventions to address concerns about inequities can only be soundly explored after the identification of any disparities. This paper begins with a discussion of the data and analytic strategy. In the subsequent section, results are presented. It is critical for readers to understand that this study only seeks to identify if racial/ethnic disparities in drug arrests/violations exist and does not seek to identify the underlying causes of any disparities. Therefore, any results of this study should not be used to imply that the enforcement practices of the Ohio State Highway Patrol are discriminatory in any way. 

Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 880, Drug Enforcement and Policy Center, September 2024, 

By Meghan M. O'Neil and Peter Leasure

This study explored, among persons undergoing drug treatment, whether one’s likelihood of possessing any felony charge differed depending upon their primary drug of choice. The results showed that individuals in drug treatment who reported cocaine or heroin/opioids as their primary drug of choice had significantly higher probabilities of having a felony charge than those who reported alcohol as their primary drug of choice.

Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 878,

By Shiying Zhang, Ao Huang

There have been numerous debates regarding the educational practice of grade retention and social promotion. This study analyzes the effect of an exogenous policy reform in China that abolishes grade retention during the compulsory education period. We exploit the staggered introduction of the reform across provinces and estimate a flexible difference-in-differences model that can capture the effect of exposure to the reform in different grades. The results indicate that abolishing grade retention significantly decreases the probability of junior high school completion, and most of these negative impacts are concentrated among students exposed to the reform in early grades. Moreover, rural children and boys are more likely to be negatively affected by the reform. Finally, we find that the reform increases the likelihood of later criminal behavior in early adulthood.

Unpublished paper, 2024.

By Fredrik Kärrholm, Peter Neyroud & John Smaaland

Research Question -  Which method for deriving a Crime Harm Index (Policing 10:171 183, 2016) for Sweden from criminal justice sources offers the best evidence for providing a sensitive indicator of differences in harm levels across offence categories? Data The number of days of imprisonment for each offence category associated with five different kinds of scales were extracted and compared: consensus by an expert panel of judges, the statutory maximum penalties, statutory minimum penalties, the average of maximum and minimum penalties and the average of actual sentences imposed in a recent time period for each crime type. Unlike the UK, for which the Cambridge Crime Harm Index draws on sentencing guidelines, Sweden has no such guidelines to offer. Methods - The data were compared for sensitivity defined as the difference in length of imprisonment days between high and low severity crimes, as well as other characteristics of the data sources. Findings - Given the available alternatives, the sentencing data average of actual sentences handed down by crime type provided the greatest reliability and sensitivity across the penalties for offences of high and low severity. Applying that method to both crime trends and crime mapping produces substantially different results from counting all crimes with equal weight and can be used by police and others to allocate resources with greater precision in relation to harm prevention. Conclusions - On both empirical and normative grounds, the average sentences in a recent time period for each crime category provides the most sensitive and democratic method for establishing an officially recognized Swedish Crime Harm Index.  

Cambridge Journal of Evidence-Based Policing 4(1): 15–33. 2021.