By Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Michelle Degli Esposti, Stephen Hargarten, Laura Vargas and Jason E. Goldstick

Background

Globally, Mexico is one of six countries with the highest level of firearm mortality. While previous studies have examined firearm mortality in Mexico before 2015, increases in violence since then highlight the need for an updated analysis. In this study, we examined changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and described these deaths by key demographic groups, incident location, and state of occurrence. Data came from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a federal agency that collects and reports national population data. We used descriptive statistics to analyze rates, proportions, and percentage changes in firearm mortality, and we displayed temporal trends using time plots and special trends using maps.

Results

Firearm deaths increased in Mexico from 2015 to 2018 but slightly decreased from 2018 to 2022. Homicides presented the highest increase and the highest proportion of firearm-related deaths from 2015 to 2022. Victims were primarily males but rates among women increased at a higher proportion (99.5% vs 53.5%). One third of victims were 20–29y but rates among children and adolescents (10–9y) increased at a higher proportion. Most firearm-related deaths occurred in streets or public spaces but the percentage of incidents occurring in households have increased. State-level rates and percentage changes varied significantly. States with higher rates of firearm mortality coincide with those involving conflict among organized criminal organizations.

Conclusion

Firearm mortality in Mexico is a major public health burden. The epidemiology of firearm-related deaths in Mexico varies by intent, demographics, location, and states. To mitigate this challenge, multiple solutions are required.

Introduction

Previous studies have documented increases in firearm mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2015 (Dare et al. 2019). Reports from nonprofit organizations and news outlets indicate further increases since 2015, (particularly firearm homicides associated with organized crime) (Calderon et al. 2020), but comprehensive characterization of those trends is lacking. Organized criminal groups continue to operate in Mexico and roughly 213 k firearms are trafficked from the US every year (McDougal et al. 2014). In this regard, further increases in firearm mortality would threaten the future economy and health of Mexico (Peters et al. 2020; Aburto et al. 2016), and yet the lack of precise epidemiological information limits the ability to address this growing national problem with evidence-based programs and policies. In this analysis, we document changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and describe these deaths by key demographic groups (e.g., sex, age, and urbanicity), incident location (e.g., households or public spaces) and states where they occurred.

Methods

Data on causes of death were collected from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a national vital statistic database that has previously been used to examine firearm mortality in Mexico (Dare et al. 2019; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023a). INEGI collects annual mortality data and provides information on year of occurrence (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023b). We merged datasets from 2015 to 2022. We excluded deaths that occurred/registered before 2015 and those where year of occurrence was unknown (n = 432), as well as deaths that occurred outside of Mexico (n = 2).

In line with previous studies (Degli Esposti et al. 2023; Cunningham et al. 2018), we identified firearm deaths using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes for firearm homicide (X93–X95 and U01.4), firearm suicide (X72–X74), unintentional firearm deaths (W32–W34), and firearm deaths of undetermined intent (Y22–Y24). Firearm deaths were further disaggregated by sex and age group (< 10y; 10–19y; 20–29y; 30–39; 40–49y; 50–59y; 60–69y; 70y+) and geographic information (urbanicity, incident location, state of occurrence). Urbanicity was defined using INEGI’s predetermined categories of urbanicity (urban and rural). Similarly, incident location was defined using INEGI’s eight predetermined categories of where deaths occurred (household, school or office, sport fields, streets or public spaces, commercial areas, industrial areas, farms/ranches, and other).

We used descriptive statistics to examine pooled 2015–2022 rates, annual rates for 2015 and 2022 separately, as well as percentage changes (in rates) from 2015 to 2022 across categories of intent, sex, age groups, and state of occurrence. To obtain rates, we used population estimates (by year, sex, age group, and state) provided by Mexico’s Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) (Consejo Nacional de Población 2024). We also examined the percentage of firearm related deaths within categories defined by urbanicity, location, intent, and demographics. We displayed these percentages for 2015, 2022, and the total pooled 2015–2022 period.

Results

We examined 188,397 firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022. Rates of firearm-related deaths increased by 88.2% from 2015 to 2018 and decreased by 16.7% from 2018 to 2022 (Fig. 1). Homicide accounted for 92.2% of firearm deaths (Table 1) during this period and experienced the highest percentage increase (62.7%) from 2015 (10.37 per 100 k) to 2022 (16.87 per 100 k). Rates of undetermined firearm-related deaths and unintentional shootings also increased during this period (Table 1), while firearm suicide decreased by 23.4% (from 0.47 per 100 k in 2015 to 0.36 per 100 k in 2022).

Injury Epidemiology; 2024

By Chelsa Kenney

Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy: 2020 identified the trafficking of firearms from the U.S. into Mexico as a threat to the safety and security of both countries. The Mexican government has estimated that 200,000 firearms are smuggled from the United States each year. GAO was asked to report on U.S. efforts to counter firearms trafficking to Mexico. This report examines (1) the extent of U.S. agencies’ knowledge about firearms trafficking to Mexico and (2) U.S. agencies’ efforts to disrupt this trafficking and the extent to which they have assessed those efforts. GAO reviewed firearms tracing data, related analysis, and program information for fiscal years 2014 through 2020. GAO also interviewed U.S. and Mexican officials. This is a public version of a sensitive report that GAO issued in December 2020. What GAO Recommends GAO is making eight recommendations, including recommending that ATF and ICE analyze additional information about the trafficking of U.S.-sourced firearms to Mexico and that ATF, ICE, CBP, and State develop performance measures to assess the results of their efforts to disrupt this trafficking. The agencies concurred with GAO’s recommendations.   

Washington, DC: United States Government Accountability Office , 2021. 56p.

By Antonio Fuentes Díaz

The article compares two important experiences of the emergence and consolidation of armed non-state actors in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and Michoacán, Mexico, noting the rise of the groups, their functioning, relationship with the state and involvement in new forms of governance in territorial control, population regulation and profit-making. These phenomena are part of a broader transformation related to political mutations that decentralize the state and generate specific subjective forms that modify the relationships between the individual, the social, the state, and the market

2022, Dilemas, Revista de Estudos de Conflito Controle Social, June 2022, Dilemas 1(4):179-204

By David Pérez Esparza

This thesis aims to explain why, against the background of a fairly global crime drop, violence and crime increased in Mexico in the mid-2000s. Since most classical hypotheses from criminological research are unable to account satisfactorily for these trends, this study tests the explanatory power of a situational hypothesis as the main independent variable (i.e. the role of opportunity). In particular, this involves testing whether the rise in violence can be explained by an increase in the availability of illegal weapons in Mexico resulting from policy changes and rises in gun production in the bordering U.S. To conduct this study, the thesis develops and implements an ad hoc analytic strategy (composed of six steps) that helps to examine each gun market (i.e. pistols, revolvers, rifles, and shotguns) both in the supply (U.S.) and in the illegal demand for firearms (Mexico). Following this market approach, the study finds that patterns of gun production in the U.S. temporally and spatially coincide with the patterns of gun confiscation (and violent crime) in Mexico. More specifically, analyses suggest that changes in illegal gun availability (across time and space) provide a better explanation for the observed difference in state-level homicide in Mexico than traditional hypotheses. The thesis presents additional analyses in favour of the situational hypothesis (through triangulation) and reports the findings of novel interviews with law enforcement officers with experience on gun trafficking in the U.S.-Mexico context. The study concludes by reviewing the key findings concerning the illicit markets between Mexico and the U.S., their theoretical and policy implications, as well as possible avenues for future research.

London: University College London, 2019. 389p.

By Jess T. Ford

In recent years, violence along the U.S.-Mexico border has escalated dramatically, due largely to the Mexican government's efforts to disrupt Mexican drug trafficking organizations (DTO). U.S. officials note the violence associated with Mexican DTOs poses a serious challenge for U.S. law enforcement, threatening citizens on both sides of the border, and U.S. and Mexican law enforcement officials generally agree many of the firearms used to perpetrate crimes in Mexico are illicitly trafficked from the United States across the Southwest border. GAO was asked to examine (1) data on the types, sources, and users of these firearms; (2) key challenges confronting U.S. government efforts to combat illicit sales of firearms in the United States and stem the flow of them into Mexico; (3) challenges faced by U.S. agencies collaborating with Mexican authorities to combat the problem of illicit arms; and (4) the U.S. government's strategy for addressing the issue. GAO analyzed program information and firearms data and met with U.S. and Mexican officials on both sides of the border.

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2009. 83p.

By Topher McDougal, David A. Shirk, Robert Muggah and John H. Patterson

Mexico is experiencing a surge in gun-related violence since 2006. Yet Mexico does not manufacture small arms, light weapons or ammunition in sizeable quantity. Moreover, Mexico has some of the most restrictive gun legislation in the world. It is assumed that a considerable proportion of weapons in Mexico are illegal, most having been trafficked from the United States (U.S.). The volume of firearms sold in the United States and trafficked across the U.S.-Mexico border, however, is notoriously difficult to record. Previous attempts have involved multiplicative approximations based upon the quantity of arms confiscated at the border.

San Diego: Trans-Border Institute, University of San Diego; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: Igarapé Institute, 2013. 31p.