ByGergely Hideg and Anna Alvazzi del Frate

The year 2018 was characterized by a decrease in lethal violence in several of the world’s hotspots, primarily due to a significant de-escalation of the armed conflicts in Iraq, Myanmar, South Sudan, and Syria. The homicide rate also decreased marginally due to population growth outpacing the nominal increase in killings between 2017 and 2018. These two trends jointly resulted in a modest positive change in the rate of violent deaths globally in 2018 which, at 7.8 violent deaths per 100,000 population, is at its lowest since 2012.

Still Not There: Global Violent Deaths Scenarios, 2019–30, a Briefing Paper by the Survey’s Security Assessment in North Africa (SANA) project provides an updated trend analysis of global violent deaths and develops global-level scenarios for the years leading to 2030. Based on 2018 figures from the Small Arms Survey’s Global Violent Deaths (GVD) database, the paper also includes a specific analysis of developments in Northern Africa and the five nations of the G5 Sahel region. It finds that under a business-as-usual scenario, Northern Africa’s violent death rate would remain relatively stable by 2030. By contrast, under the same scenario, the fatality rate in the G5 Sahel region would increase significantly. The paper also looks at how, for the first time, the GVD database now permits the analysis of disaggregated data for female victims of firearm killings for the period 2004–18, further increasing its gender relevance.

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2021. 16p.

By Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey's annual report provides an overview of the Survey's work from the previous year. It highlights the main activities undertaken by our projects and units, the publications that were released, the Survey's outreach work, as well as important institutional and financial developments.

Geneva, Small Arms Survey, 2023. 15p.

By Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva, Switzerland)

The Small Arms Survey 2001: Profiling the Problem is an authoritative guide to all aspects of the problem of small arms and light weapons. It focuses on both small arms themselves (production, transfers, stockpiles), and on the processes and impacts of their world-wide proliferation.

Specific sections deal with issues such as arms brokering, the role of small arms and light weapons in particular conflict zones, current international initiatives and projects to stem their proliferation, and with broader social and economic effects (crime, public health, development).

Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2001.

By Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva, Switzerland)

The Small Arms Survey 2002: Counting the Human Cost includes new and updated information and analysis on global small arms production, stockpiles and legal and illicit transfers, and a review of international, regional and national measures to address the issue of small arms proliferation. The Small Arms Survey is now recognised as the principal international source of impartial and reliable information on all aspects of small arms. Its blend of information and analysis makes it an indispensable resource for policy-makers, officials and non-governmental organisations.

Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2002.

By Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva, Switzerland)

The Small Arms Survey 2003: Development Denied presents the most complete assessment of the spread of small arms around the world and their effect on society. Stressing the link between small arms and global development, it includes special chapters examining the role of small arms in Africa (Congo), the Arab world (Yemen) and the former-Soviet Union (Georgia).

Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2003.

By Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva, Switzerland)

The Small Arms Survey 2004: Rights at Risk provides original research and updated information on small arms production, stockpiles, and trade. In focusing on the links between small arms and the abuse of human rights, this edition explores the impact of arms exports to areas of conflict, the role of weapons in global violence and crime, and the implementation of human rights standards by police forces worldwide. The Survey also features in-depth coverage of issues such as the growing concern over MANPADS and the role of small arms in the Pacific and Kyrgyzstan.

Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2004.

By Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva, Switzerland), Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2005: Weapons at War is dedicated to exploring issues surrounding armed conflict, including the sourcing of weapons to conflict areas, weapons use, conflict deaths, and post-conflict disarmament initiatives.

This edition also provides an overview of small arms ammunition issues as well as new and updated information on small arms production, stockpiles, transfers, and international measures. It also presents two case studies: one exploring the concept of 'gun culture' in Kosovo, the other focusing on the Central African Republic. In addition, this volume surveys representations of small arms and armed violence in contemporary art.

Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2005.

By Graduate Institute of International Studies (Geneva, Switzerland), Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2006: Unfinished Business offers new and updated information on small arms production, stockpiles, transfers, and measures, including a review of the International Tracing Instrument.

This year's thematic chapters examine issues such as the demand for weapons, small arms and security sector reform, and the economic costs of small arms use. This edition also features case studies on small arms violence in Papua New Guinea and Colombia, armed groups in West Africa, and the Lord's Resistance Army in northern Uganda. The final chapter—'Angry Young Men'—considers why young men account for the lion's share of global small arms violence.

Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2006

By Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva, Switzerland), Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2008: Risk and Resilience presents two thematic sections. The first examines the problem of diversion as related to stockpiles, international transfers, and end-user documentation. It includes a case study on South Africa and a comic strip illustrating the potential ease by which someone with access to forged documentation can make arrangements to ship munitions virtually anywhere. The second thematic section analyses the public health approach to armed violence, scrutinizing risk and resilience factors and considering related interventions. It includes an overview of the burden of armed violence, and two case studies of armed violence in El Salvador and the United States. A chapter on light weapons production rounds out the volume.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2008.

By Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva, Switzerland), Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2009: Shadows of War contains two thematic sections. The first highlights the challenges of ensuring security after the formal end of war and comprises an overview chapter and three case studies (Aceh, Afghanistan, and Southern Lebanon). The second thematic section explores various aspects of small arms transfers, including the value of the authorized trade, national controls, and weapons tracing. Additional chapters focus on small arms measures and impacts.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2009.

By Geneva Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2012: Moving Targets looks at what is changing, and not changing, in relation to armed violence and small arms proliferation. Chapters on firearm homicide in Latin America and the Caribbean, drug violence in selected Latin American countries, and non-lethal violence worldwide illustrate that security is a moving target; armed violence continues to undermine security and well-being around the world. The goal of curbing small arms proliferation, embodied in the UN Programme of Action, appears similarly elusive. Chapters on illicit small arms in war zones, trade transparency, Somali piracy, and the 2011 UN Meeting of Governmental Experts highlight some of the successes and challenges in this area. Country studies examine Kazakhstan and Somaliland. The final installment of the authorized transfers project looks at the total value of exports and imports globally, including small arms and light weapons, ammunition, and parts and accessories.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press 2012.

By Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva, Switzerland)

The Small Arms Survey 2014: Women and Guns considers the multiple roles of women in the context of armed violence, security, and the small arms agenda. The volume’s thematic section comprises one chapter on violence against women and girls—with a focus on post-conflict Liberia and Nepal—and another on the recent convergence of the small arms agenda with that of women, peace, and security. Complementing these chapters are illustrated testimonies of women with experience as soldiers, rebels, and security personnel. The ‘weapons and markets’ section assesses the potential impact of the Arms Trade Treaty, presents the 2014 Transparency Barometer and an update on the authorized small arms trade, and analyses recent ammunition explosions in the Republic of the Congo. In addition, it examines ammunition circulating in Africa and the Middle East, maps the sources of insurgent weapons in Sudan and South Sudan, and evaluates crime gun records in the United States.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2014.

By Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2015: Weapons and the World examines the role of weapons and armed violence in humanity’s appropriation of the earth’s wildlife and mineral riches—in Africa, where the poaching of elephants and rhinos is becoming increasingly militarized, and near resource extraction sites around the world. In addition to presenting updates on the UN small arms process and the top arms importers and exporters, the volume assesses how recent technological developments affect weapons marking, record-keeping, and tracing; reviews small arms flows to Egypt, Libya, and Syria before and after the ‘Arab Spring’; and evaluates a stockpile management initiative in South-east Europe. The ‘armed actors’ section sheds light on the arms and ammunition used by insurgents in northern Mali, the decline of the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda, and the use of floating armouries by private security companies in the Indian Ocean. This edition also analyses the conditions that are driving young people to adopt high-risk coping strategies in Burundi.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2015.

By Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies (Geneva, Switzerland),. Small Arms Survey

The Small Arms Survey 2011: States of Security considers the growth of the private security industry and its firearms holdings worldwide; private security use by multinational corporations; emerging weapons technology ; and legislative controls over civilian possession of firearms. Case studies provide original research on ongoing security challenges in Côte d’Ivoire, Haiti, and Madagascar. This edition also presents the 2011 Small Arms Trade Transparency Barometer, an estimate of the annual authorized trade in light weapons, and reviews developments related to small arms control at the United Nations.

Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2011..

By Giacomo Persi Paoli

The potential role of the dark web in facilitating trade in firearms, ammunition and explosives has gained increased public attention following recent terrorist attacks and other criminal activities worldwide. In fact, the hidden and obscured parts of the web are used by criminals and others to access a worldwide market where it’s possible to procure or sell a wide range of weapons and associated products through encrypted marketplaces and vendor shops.

Following the outcomes of the Third United Nations Conference to Review Progress Made in the Implementation of the Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects, which acknowledged the importance of considering new challenges and opportunities arising from new forms of illicit trafficking, this Occasional Paper summarises the main findings and implications of the first empirical study investigating the scale and scope of arms trafficking on the dark web.

The findings of this study shed light on the scale and scope of arms trafficking on the dark web, illustrating the range of weapons traded, their market price and most common transit routes. In addition, this Occasional Paper discusses the implications of this growing phenomenon for law enforcement agencies and policy makers, highlighting the key role that firearms control measures continue to play in the presence of new forms of trafficking.

New York: United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, 2018. 107p.

Editors: Ernesto U. Savona and Marina Mancuso

Project FIRE – Fighting Illicit firearms trafficking Routes and actors at European level (www. fireproject.eu) – was carried out with the financial support of the European Commission, DG Home Affairs, within the Prevention of and the Fight against Crime (ISEC) Programme. The research is an exploratory study on the illicit trafficking of firearms (ITF) in the EU. Based on the results obtained, it also provides recommendations on how to improve the fight against and the prevention of ITF. For the purposes of the study, ITF has been defined as every case in which the illicit acquisition, sale, delivery, movement or transfer of firearms, their parts or ammunition occur from, to, or within the territory of the EU.

Milano: Transcrime – Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 2017. 116p.

By William Godnick

This monograph is a modified version of a background paper prepared for a conference that took place in Ottawa, Canada in May 2001, bringing together representatives of the Member States of the Organization of American States (OAS), non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society to discuss issues related to the July 2001 United Nations (UN) Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (hereafter referred to as the UN Conference). This version takes into account the Programme of Action (PoA) adopted by the UN Member States as well as other emerging or consolidated initiatives in the western hemisphere.

British American Security Information Council, International Alert and Saferworld, 2002. 26p.

By William Godnick

This monograph is a modified version of a background paper prepared for a conference that took place in Ottawa, Canada in May 2001, bringing together representatives of the Member States of the Organization of American States (OAS), non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and civil society to discuss issues related to the July 2001 United Nations (UN) Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (hereafter referred to as the UN Conference). This version takes into account the Programme of Action (PoA) adopted by the UN Member States as well as other emerging or consolidated initiatives in the western hemisphere.

British American Security Information Council, International Alert and Saferworld, 2002. 26p.

By Jenny Mouzos

Firearms can be important as instruments of crime. Their unauthorised movement across national borders constitutes a crime in its own right. Firearms posing the greatest threat are those that are easily concealable and less detectable, making them attractive for traffickers and criminals alike. In order to regulate the traffic of firearms at an international level, it is necessary to begin by regulating it at both a regional and a national level. This paper highlights international strategies aimed at curbing the proliferation of firearms into Australia. It also examines Australian government initiatives introduced to reduce the number of, and access to, illegal firearms in the community, and consequently to reduce firearm-related violence.

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 1999. 6p.

By Matt Schroeder

When one thinks of arms traffickers, the image that often comes to mind is of the stereotypical ‘Merchant of Death’ – ambitious, well-connected, globetrotting entrepreneurs who single-handedly arm warlords and insurgents across the world. While there is some truth to the stereotype, most illicit arms traffickers do not fit this profile. The latest Issue Brief from the Small Arms Survey—Dribs and Drabs: The Mechanics of Small Arms Trafficking from the United States—analyses a side of the arms trade that is less flashy, less centralized, and even more difficult to stop. Using an extensive database compiled from court records, the Issue Brief looks at the modes of transport, concealment methods, and smuggling techniques employed by arms traffickers in the United States, most of whom bear little resemblance to the ‘Merchants of Death’.

This Issue Brief draws on a database that follows the activities of more than 400 individuals accused of illegally shipping small arms and light weapons, their parts, accessories, or ammunition from the US to at least 46 countries. It offers an overview of the types of small arms trafficked and how smugglers evade export controls and border controls. The Brief concludes with a policy-relevant analysis of the implications of these cases.

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2016. 16p.