By Topher L. McDougal, Daniel Montolio and Jurgen Brauer

This study represents an attempt to understand the U.S. firearms market – the largest in the world – in economic terms. A model of the underlying interplay of legal firearms supply and demand is a prerequisite for reliably evaluating the effectiveness of pertinent existing state and federal firearms policies, and to amend them as necessary. The stakes are high: compared to other nation-states, per capita firearms-related harm in the United States (including suicides and homicides) is exceptionally high and, within constitutional strictures, state and federal firearms policymakers increasingly view it as a major and pressing society-wide problem. Virtually all firearms in the U.S. are initially manufactured and sold legally. Solving a simultaneous equation model using the instrumental variable of natural disasters and employing a unique dataset of U.S. firearms prices and quantities, this paper models – we believe for the first time in the literature – the U.S. market supply of, and demand for, firearms. Encouragingly, we find that this market operates as any other would be expected to, with the notable exception that lagged nonmilitary firearms stocks generate new market demand in a positive feedback loop. We test as predictors of market performance federal firearms legislation as instances of policy, as well as of extraterritorial armed conflict, firearms industry concentration, crime, and technology gaps between U.S. and imported firearms. Except for the time-limited Federal Assault Weapons Ban (1994-2004), we find (restrictive) firearms legislation not to influence sales. We also find that acute external violent conflict and certain levels of violent crime, including homicides and mass shootings, drive up unit sales, and that higher industry concentrations in certain submarkets boost quantity supplied, suggesting economies of scale. Taken together, this study’s findings may provide some empirical support for firearms stock reduction programs to reduce the total volumes of civilian arms.

San Diego: Small Arms Data Observatory, 2020. 35p

By Topher L. McDougal, Athena Kolbe, Robert Muggah and Nicholas Marsh

The rapid increase in the accessibility of firearms and ammunition represents a key factor in the destabilization of many countries. It is also commonly associated with an escalation in the intensity and organization of collective and interpersonal violence. In some cases, arms are illegally transferred from one state to another, while in others weapons are diverted from existing stores. In this article the authors consider the leakage from military and civilian markets as an important source of ammunition available to civilians in Haiti. We employ a unique section-quarterly panel of ammunition prices over the period July 2004-July 2012. This data is combined with publicly available monthly data on authorized ammunition shipments to the country registered by the United Nations (UN) and Haitian National Police (HNP). We also consider annual data on homicide rates and UN resolutions related to Haitian military personnel and civilian police. We use a standard time-series OLS model to show that the exogenous shocks of UN- and HNP-ordered ammunition exert measurable downward pressure on civilian ammunition markets, which we calculate in terms of adjusted predictions and partial elasticities of demand. These effects constitute solid econometric evidence that the firewall that should in theory separate military and civilian markets in Haiti has partially broken down. We conclude with a suggestion for using this model to help estimate the specific size of the leakage

San Diego: Small Arms Data Observatory, 2014. 21p.

By Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig

The proposition that widespread gun ownership serves as a deterrent to residential burglary is widely touted by advocates, but the evidence is weak, consisting of anecdotes, interviews with burglars, casual comparisons with other countries, and the like. A more systematic exploration requires data on local rates of gun ownership and of residential burglary, and such data have only recently become available. In this paper we exploit a new well-validated proxy for local gun-ownership prevalence -- the proportion of suicides that involve firearms -- together with newly available geo-coded data from the National Crime Victimization Survey, to produce the first systematic estimates of the net effects of gun prevalence on residential burglary patterns. The importance of such empirical work stems in part from the fact that theoretical considerations do not provide much guidance in predicting the net effects of widespread gun ownership. Guns in the home may pose a threat to burglars, but also serve as an inducement, since guns are particularly valuable loot. Other things equal, a gun-rich community provides more lucrative burglary opportunities than one where guns are more sparse. The new empirical results reported here provide no support for a net deterrent effect from widespread gun ownership. Rather, our analysis concludes that residential burglary rates tend to increase with community gun prevalence.

Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002. 98p.

By Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane

The assassination of a South African police detective investigating a guns-to-gangs syndicate has brought into sharp focus the links between corrupt elements of the police and the criminal underworld, and the fraudulent channels through which police-issue firearms are sold to criminals.

It has also reinforced how systemic corruption at the firearms registry has been an ongoing problem that has subverted the aims of South Africa’s Firearms Control Act – legislation designed to prevent the dissemination of firearms in the country, and which, ironically, is implemented by the registry.

This paper examines how the entity responsible for controlling civilian access to firearms became so embroiled in corruption that criminal syndicates have been able to infiltrate the registry and acquire firearm licences.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2020. 22p.

By Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane

Southern Africa is awash with illegal firearms fuelling violence, conflict, and organized crime. Guns and ammunition are a currency in an underworld of gangs, hitmen, drug syndicates, extortion, kidnappings, wildlife crime, and bloody turf wars in the informal transport sector.

While the exact figure for the number of illicit firearms in circulation in the SADC region is not readily available, it is estimated that there are about 3.8 million unregistered illegal firearms in circulation in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Many of these come from civilian gun owners whose firearms have been lost or stolen, but many others come from state institutions. It is not known exactly how many firearms have been lost and stolen from the police, military, and other government departments, and a lack of oversight means that many losses and thefts go unrecorded….While the South African Police do release some information on firearms lost or stolen each year, they do not release or do not have, figures on firearms missing from police evidence stocks and of firearms earmarked for destruction.

This report is based on extensive research and fieldwork conducted in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. The report examines the sources, markets, and types of firearms inflaming conflict and organized crime in the region.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2021. 81p.

By Guillermo Vázquez del Mercado

The illicit firearms trade is a threat to sustainable development, peace and security. Its proliferation not only escalates conflict but also facilitates other criminal activities. Exploring the links between firearms trafficking and other forms of organized crime requires analysis of how guns enter illicit markets; how they enable other criminal markets to flourish; what actions are taken by governments to control their flow within and across borders; and the role firearms play in exacerbating crime and violence in communities across the world. If this is to be tackled, monitoring and deterring the trade in illegal firearms should be a top priority for governments. Key points ■ Illicit firearms are an accelerant of crime and violence, and a threat to community resilience and democracy. ■ Conflict fuels the arms trade, compounding regional instability. ■ State and private institutions play a significant role in access to illegal firearms. ■ The line between licit and illicit firearms markets is becoming blurred. ■ Greater access to firearms and ammunition is shaping how organized crime networks operate. ■ Modified and home-manufactured firearms are a growing threat. ■ Reliable records and licencing processes/databases are needed for tracing and enforcing international treaties and domestic laws.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2022. 26p.

By Amanda Gore ̵,Lindsey Kennedy, Nathan Southern, and Daan van Uhm.

The Asia Pacific region is the largest and fastest-growing market for gambling in the world. The proliferation of physical and online casinos in South East Asia presents criminal entities with a myriad of opportunities to engage in illicit activities. Whereas casinos generate revenues and employment prospects, their location within weak jurisdictions and special economic zones (SEZs) makes them incredibly permissive settings in which criminal individuals and organizations can operate freely and even run the casino operations. … There are four key reasons behind the convergence between international wildlife trafficking networks and casinos. First is their location in borderlands, which makes them favourable for criminal groups smuggling goods where there are concentrations of tourists. Second is their location in SEZs, which are characterized by weak oversight and lack of external monitoring. Third is the tourist-driven demand for wildlife products.2 Casinos in the region are primarily geared towards Mainland Chinese customers who are forbidden by law to gamble in China and actively seek opportunities to do so in countries within South East Asia, where they also seek wildlife products. Fourth are the personal connections between some prominent casino operators in the region and illegal timber and wildlife markets, both local and international.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2022. 40p.

By Leila Nadya Sadat and Madaline M. George

Our research revealed a startling and incontrovertible fact: gun violence in the United States has reached crisis proportions. In 2017, the most recent year for which hard data is available, 173,500 people were shot, over 39,700 of which died: 60.0% from suicide, 36.6% from homicide, 1.4% from legal intervention, and 1.2% from unintentional (accidental) deaths.2 On average in 2017, nearly 109 people died from guns and another 366 suffered nonfatal firearm injuries every day. … The proliferation of firearms is also of concern. While the percentage of the population owning guns has decreased, the number of civilian firearms in circulation in the United States has grown. Indeed, by some estimates, 2009 marked the first year that the number of civilian guns in the United States surpassed the total U.S. population. …Studies clearly demonstrate the serious psychological impact and negative developmental effects of school shootings on students and others across the country, far beyond the school and district immediately affected...

St. Louis, MO: Whitney R. Harris World Law Institute, Washington University in St. Louis, School of Law, 2019. 121p.

By Kenneth J. Novak and William R. King

This report presents the findings and methodology of an evaluation of the implementation and impact of the Kansas City Crime Gun Intelligence Center (CGIC) for the years 2017 and 2020, a multi-agency approach for collecting, managing, analyzing, and using information or intelligence derived from or associated with firearms. The CGIC business model involves collaborative partnerships among local agencies in addressing gun-related crime. CGIC activities include the comprehensive collection of ballistic evidence, timely entry and correlation, crime-gun tracing, ATF analysis, identification of NIBIN leads, collaboration between local and federal law enforcement agencies, and prosecution of offenders who commit gun crimes.

Washington, DC: National Gun Crime Intelligence Center Initiative Bureau of Justice Assistance, U.S. Department of Justice 2020. 100p.

By Craig Uchida, Marc L. Swatt, Allison Q. Land, Kyle Anderson and Samantha Hock

Denver’s CGIC was conceived as a program that would “focus on gun violence” -- emphasizing shooters and those who commit gun-related crimes (J. Russell, personal communication October 2020). Using data- and forensic-driven approaches, an interagency collaboration was developed between ATF and DPD. Relying on research on gun violence and crime lab forensics, ATF and DPD leveraged the ATF’s National Integrated Ballistics Information Network (NIBIN) to identify critical links between gun casings, gun-related incidents, and those using firearms. NIBIN information and eTrace were used to link ballistics evidence recovered from firearms and casings to other shooting incidents. They showed the ability to identify heretofore unknown perpetrators and generate forensic evidence leading to the arrest and convictions of gun-crime offenders.

Los Angeles: Justice & Security Strategies, Inc., 2020. 102p.

By Jillian Peterson

This is the Final Report on the goals and achievements of a project that created a database on patterns in the lives of mass shooters to assist in informing policymakers and practitioners in developing and implementing prevention and intervention strategies for mass shootings. Informed by existing datasets, the research literature, and frequently asked questions about mass shooters, this project compiled a list of variables to be coded and developed a codebook. The codebook was piloted on a small random sample of test cases and refined. Open-source lists of mass shootings were developed from major news outlets. Among the variable categories are leakage of the killers’ plans, crisis signs, victim characteristics, firearms possession and use, role of psychosis in the shooting, behaviors related to violence, mental health, family characteristics, and social and interest groups. The report also contains findings from the database on mass shooting trends; shooter demographics; trauma, suicidality, and crisis; mental health; and warning signs

St. Paul, MN: Hamline University, 2021. 38p.

By The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation

In 2014, the FBI published its first report, A Study of Active Shooter Incidents Between 2000-2013, and subsequently published annual and bi-annual reports reflecting its continued research into active shooter incidents based on the FBI’s definition of an active shooter. Through its initial research, the FBI identified and reported on 305 active shooter incidents occurring in the United States between 2000-2019. It was later determined there were potentially other active shooter incidents fitting the FBI’s active shooter definition that had not previously been identified. …. As a result, the FBI evaluated and identified an additional 28 active shooter incidents that occurred between 2000 and 2019, bringing the total designated active shooter incidents during this time period to 333. … This valuable information is intended to assist law enforcement and the public in developing strategies to stop active shooter threats, prevent acts of violence, and prepare for, respond to, and recover from such incidents.

Washington, DC: FBI, 2021. 35p.

Jillian J. Turanovic, Travis C. Pratt, Kristen Neville, and Antonia La Tosa

“…mass shootings encompass all incidents with four or more gunshot fatalities, not including the shooter, within 24 hours. Existing publicly available databases on deadly mass shootings often focus only on those that occur in public spaces (and that are neither family- nor felony-related). We include public mass shooting incidents, but we also assess all the other deadly mass shootings that occurred over this period (e.g., those that happened in private spaces among family members, and those that occurred in public spaces but were part of another criminal event). Our effort to be more inclusive allows for the examination of not only the characteristics of deadly mass shootings that occur in public, but to also examine how similar (or not) these incidents are to deadly mass shootings that take place in other contexts. In all, our database contains information on 720 incidents that occurred in both public and private spaces between 1980 and 2018. Consistent with prior research, we used open-source data (e.g., media reports, official police and court records) to code each deadly mass shooting incident according to a host of characteristics.

Tallahassee: College of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Florida State University , 2022. 53p.

By Yvon Dandurand

This literature review focuses on the role that firearms have in injuries, unintentional deaths, suicides, and violent crimes, especially in Canada; the report also examines role of firearm regulation in reducing such incidents and addresses other ways to promote the responsible use of guns. Survey research indicates that Canada's household rate of gun ownership is about 26 percent. Canada's rate is in the middle range of the countries studied.

Ottawa: Canadian Firearms Centre, Department of Justice Canada, 1998. 108p.

By Scott R Kegler, Linda L Dahlberg and James A Mercy

Firearm homicides and suicides represent a continuing public health concern in the United States. During 2015-2016, a total of 27,394 firearm homicides (including 3,224 [12%] among persons aged 10-19 years) and 44,955 firearm suicides (including 2,118 [5%] among persons aged 10-19 years) occurred among U.S. residents (1). This report updates an earlier report (2) that provided statistics on firearm homicides and suicides in major metropolitan areas during 2006-2007 and 2009-2010, and places continued emphasis on youths, in recognition of the importance of early prevention efforts.

MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2018 Nov 9;67(44):1233-1237

By Scott R. Kegler, et al.

Introduction: The majority of homicides (79%) and suicides (53%) in the United States involved a firearm in 2020. High firearm homicide and suicide rates and corresponding inequities by race and ethnicity and poverty level represent important public health concerns. This study examined changes in firearm homicide and firearm suicide rates coinciding with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Conclusions and Implications for Public Health Practice: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the firearm homicide rate in the United States reached its highest level since 1994, with substantial increases among several population subgroups. These increases have widened disparities in rates by race and ethnicity and poverty level. Several increases in firearm suicide rates were also observed. Implementation of comprehensive strategies employing proven approaches that address underlying economic, physical, and social conditions contributing to the risks for violence and suicide is urgently needed to reduce these rates and disparities

MMWR Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report 2022 May 13;71(19):656-663

By Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California Davis

This series of slides presents an overview of firearm-related deaths in the U.S.

Davis, CA: Violence Prevention Research Program, University of California Davis, 2021. 14p.

By Nils Duquet and Maarten Van Alstein

The Small Arms Survey … estimated civilian firearms ownership in Belgium as between 1.500.000 and 2.100.000 arms (of which 870.000 were said to be registered), an average of 17,2 firearms per 100 people. These estimates were based on a press communiqué of the Council of Ministers of Belgium (December 2005) and on articles in the Belgian press.1 Similar numbers also figured in the explanatory notes attached to the draft of a new Weapons Act which was tabled in the Belgian Federal Parliament in February 2006,2 and in a note published by the Groupe de Recherche et d’Information sur la Paix et la Sécurité (GRIP) in Brussels in June 2006, in the wake of the introduction of the new Belgian Weapons Act.3 However, although the estimate of 1.500.000 to 2.000.000 weapons became commonly used and widely quoted4 , it is not without its problems. Not least, the source and the method applied to arrive at this estimate remain unclear. Moreover, policy makers, stakeholders and the media do not consistently use this figure of 1.5 to 2 million guns. In some cases the figure is used to indicate the total number of guns (both legal and illegal), while in others it is quoted to refer to the number of illegal guns in circulation. Of course, because of their illegal nature, estimating the number of illegally held guns will always be a complicated exercise. In the course of a major research project undertaken by the Flemish Peace Institute on the trade, possession and use of firearms in Belgium, we were not able to find a satisfactory method, based on the available evidence, to calculate an estimate of the total number of privately owned guns in Belgium (legally plus illegally held firearms, the latter including firearms owned by criminals and guns irregularly held by citizens). The statistical information on which to base an adequate estimate is simply not available. For the moment, the reality is that nobody knows how many firearms are privately owned in Belgium.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2019. 23p.

By Nils Duquet

Every year in Europe around 1,150 people are shot dead with firearms. These deaths occur in various contexts, including the relational and criminal spheres. The little available research into the weapons used during these fatal crimes suggests that different types of firearms are used in different contexts.1 In this report we focus on the weapons that were used for one specific form of deadly firearms incidents, namely “public mass shootings”. These are shooting incidents in the (semi-)public space in which the perpetrator(s) use one or more firearms and during which several people are killed and injured. Under this umbrella term we find numerous types of shooting incidents, ranging from school shootings in which a frustrated pupil murders a number of classmates and/or teachers to terrorist attacks in which groups of perpetrators attempt to spread terror in coordinated attacks. A look at recent mass shootings shows that significant differences can be observed in terms of, for example, the locations where these shootings were carried out, the number of perpetrators, the motives of the perpetrator(s), the selection of the victims and the firearms used. This report analyses one specific aspect of such shooting incidents, namely the firearms that were used.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2016. 45p.

By Flemish Peace Institute

In recent years, policy attention to firearm violence in the European Union (EU) has increased greatly. A thorough insight into the problem is an important step in developing such a policy. How many firearms are circulating in the EU? How many deaths are caused by firearms? Is there a relationship between gun ownership and the number of violent deaths (homicides and suicides)? And what is the impact of firearms legislation? The European Commission has already said that ‘a lack of solid EU-wide statistics and intelligence hampers effective policy and operational responses’. The research of the Flemish Peace Institute offers a starting point to fill this need.

Brussels: Flemish Peace Institute, 2019. 2p.