By Huma Haide

Organized crime actors can be spoilers in peace processes or partners in peace. Policymakers and practitioners have in some cases engaged in a strategic trade-off – accepting organized crime as part of the political settlement to achieve short-term stability. However, the relationship between illicit markets and conflict can deepen over time, entrenching criminal structures in the post-conflict state. As Kemp and Shaw (2014, p. 16) argue, ‘failure to integrate issues of organized crime into mediation strategies and peace processes will leave the international community with a potentially dangerous blind spot.’ Negotiating with organized crime groups and addressing criminal agendas in peace processes has become a reality in practice. There is, however, limited research on negotiating with criminal actors in peace processes. In seeking to address this gap, this paper reviews scholarly and practitioner literature across a wide range of research disciplines.1 Key findings from this evidence review include: • Confrontation approaches have failed to resolve the problem of serious organized crime (SOC) and, in some cases, have fuelled more violence and criminality. • Organised crime groups that have strong internal cohesion and hierarchical leadership are more likely to be considered potential partners in negotiation. • Negotiation can be a necessary approach when criminal groups have strong territorial control – serving as de facto authorities that fill governance gaps. • Socio-economic and financial opportunities, and legal leniency, can encourage criminal actors to come to the negotiating table and agree on a deal. • A criminal group’s demand for legal leniency tends to be higher when they are expected to make larger concessions, such as to disarm and demobilize. • It is challenging to determine an ‘end state’ for a criminal group and to achieve a complete resolution of the criminal agenda. • Lack of political will, inadequate resources, and weak long-term planning constrain positive outcomes of negotiation processes and deal implementation. • Negotiators and mediators need to mitigate the risks of moral hazard and strengthen criminal groups. • The lack of broad public support for negotiating with SOC actors can undermine and destroy such processes. • A balance is needed between satisfying the interests of victims and of perpetrators to avoid alienating victims and producing public backlash for negotiated deals. • Many negotiations tend to occur in secret, yet lack of transparency can undermine the legitimacy and sustainability of outcomes. This review demonstrates the importance of creating a framework for engaging with criminality and organized crime groups that extend beyond confrontation – allowing for accommodation and incorporating a wider societal change agenda through transformation. This requires an understanding of when to address SOC and engage criminal groups in peace processes; how to motivate actors to negotiate, conclude, and implement deals; how to increase the likelihood of positive outcomes; and how to mitigate risks associated with negotiation. Drawing on a wide breadth of interdisciplinary literature, this paper aims to provide insights into these crucial questions. The case studies illustrate key themes and findings from this review (see Appendix 1). In El Salvador, ineffective confrontation, the internal cohesion of gangs, and an opportune moment contributed to the successful conclusion of a gang truce. It ultimately failed, however, due in large part to public outrage that translated into political pullback. In Colombia, negotiations with the FARC2 produced an innovative transitional justice mechanism that, alongside security guarantees, served as an effective inducement for disarmament. In contrast, the absence of a requirement to disarm and demobilize was a key criticism of negotiations with gangs in Jamaica, where violence has continued. In Mali and in Kosovo, international actors were initially hesitant to address organized crime in peace processes, yet this was subsequently recognized as contributing to longer-term instability, resulting in new strategies to address SOC actors.   

SOC ACE Evidence Review Paper No. 3. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham.2023. 88p.

By Eunsik Chang, Sandra Orozco-Aleman, María Padilla-Romo:

This paper studies the effects of mothers' long-term pre-conception exposure to local violence on birth outcomes. Using administrative data from Mexico and two different empirical strategies, our results indicate that mothers' long-term exposure to local violence prior to conception has detrimental effects on infant health at birth. The results suggest that loss of women's human capital and deterioration of mental health are potential underlying mechanisms behind the adverse effects, highlighting intergenerational consequences of exposure to local violence. Our findings shed light on the welfare implications of local violence that are not captured in in-utero exposure to violence.

Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, 2024. 

By Akinbowale, Oluwatoyin E., Mashigo, Mariann P., Zerihun, Prof. Mulatu

The book covers the overview of cyberfraud and the associated global statistics. It demonstrates practicable techniques that financial institutions can employ to make effective decisions geared toward cyberfraud mitigation. Furthermore, the book contains some emerging technologies, such as information and communication technologies (ICT), forensic accounting, big data technologies, tools, and analytics employed in fraud mitigation. In addition, it highlights the implementation of some techniques, such as the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) and system thinking approach to address information and security challenges. The book combines a case study, empirical findings, a systematic literature review, and theoretical and conceptual concepts to provide practicable solutions to mitigate cyber fraud. The major contributions of this book include the demonstration of digital and emerging techniques, such as forensic accounting for cyber fraud mitigation. It also provides in-depth statistics about cyber fraud, its causes, its threat actors, practicable mitigation solutions, and the application of a theoretical framework for fraud profiling and mitigation.

Capetown, AOSIS, 2024 

By Krstić, Igor

From Jacob Riis’ How The Other Half Lives (1890) to Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire (2008), Igor Krstić outlines a transnational history of films that either document or fictionalise the favelas, shantytowns, barrios poulares or chawls of our ‘planet of slums’.

Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2016.

By Gisli Vogler

How should those profiting from injustice and violence respond to their complicity? And how can they remain responsive when faced with the many ways in which they are entangled in an unjust world? We are at a deciding moment in affluent (Western) societies when it comes to addressing these kinds of questions. On the one hand, there is cause for optimism: the last decade has seen a significant shift towards open discussion of patriarchal society, institutional racism, capitalist exploitation, and the destruction of the environment, amongst many other contemporary political problems. Social movements such as #MeToo, Black Lives Matter, Fridays for Future, and Occupy Wall Street have helped turn assuming responsibility for violence and injustice into a dominant political issue. As a consequence, unjust practices, as diverse as Amazon’s working conditions and the Oxfam sexual exploitation scandal, are met with global condemnation. Debates about how those benefiting from exploitation and expropriation can act more responsibly now pervade many aspects of everyday life, from what to eat and wear, to who has what kind of opportunities. On the other hand, societies continue to be characterized by a failure to act upon the omnipresent demands for facing up to one’s involvement in injustice. Racism, sexism and ableism, and the exploitation of minorities, poorer countries and people, and nature all remain integral parts of human existence. The re-emergence of reactionary populist forces and parties in the US and large parts of Europe, together with the consolidation of power by authoritarian leaders across the world, has exacerbated the problem. The enduring failures by complicit actors to address injustice are cause for much despair and frustration. However, they have also served as catalysts for a sustained scholarly reflection on the complexities of complicity and how to address them (Beausoleil, 2019;  Hayward, 2017; Mihai, 2022; Schaap, 2020). It is my intention in this book to contribute to this interrogation and to think further how people can appropriately respond to their complicity in injustice and violence. To this end, I begin with a constructive evaluation of recent scholarship on complicity.  

Edinburgh:  Edinburgh University Press, 2024. 194p.

Edited by Tony Roberts and Karekwaivanane, George Hamandishe

In an era when hashtag campaigns like #MeToo and #BlackLivesMatter capture global attention for victims of injustice, politicians and corporations are now spending billions employing Cambridge Analytica-type consultancies to manufacture disinformation - employing trolls, cyborgs and bots to disrupt dialogue and drown-out dissent. In the first study of its kind, this open-access book presents a range of case studies of these emerging dynamics across Africa, mapping and analyzing disinformation operations in ten different countries, and using innovative techniques to determine who is producing and coordinating these increasingly sophisticated disinformation machines. Drawing on scholars from across the continent, case studies document the actors and mechanisms used to profile citizens, manipulate beliefs and behaviour, and close the political space for democratic dialogue and policy debate. Chapters include examinations of how the Nigerian government deployed disinformation when the #EndSARS campaign focused attention on police brutality and corruption; insights into how pro-government actors responded to the viral #ZimbabweanLivesMatter campaign; and how misogynists mobilized against the #AmINext campaign against gender-based violence in South Africa. Through the documentation of episodes of unruly politics in digital spaces, these studies provide a valuable assessment of the implications of these dynamics for digital rights, moving beyond a focus on elaborations of the idea of ‘fake news’, and providing actionable recommendations in the areas of policy, legislation and practice. The ebook editions of this book are available open access under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licence on bloomsburycollections.com.

London: Zed Books, 2024. 256p.

By: Newson, Linda A and Minchin, Susie

Based on exceptionally rich private papers of Portuguese slave traders, this study provides unique insight into the diet, health, and medical care of slaves during their journey from Africa to Peru in the early seventeenth century.; Readership: All those interested in the history of the slave trade and slavery in both Africa and Spanish America, as well as the history of food and medicine in the early modern period.

Brill, 2007. 388p.

By Gian Maria Campedelli, Gianmarco Daniele, Marco Le Moglie

Detection is one of the main challenges in the fight against organized crime. We show that machine learning can be used to predict mafias infiltration in Italian local governments, as measured by the dismissal of city councils infiltrated by organized crime. The model successfully predicts up to 96% of out-of-sample municipalities previously identified as infiltrated by mafias, up to two years earlier, making this index a valuable tool for identifying municipalities at risk of infiltration well in advance. Furthermore, we can identify “high-risk” local governments that may be infiltrated by organized crime but have not been detected by the state, thereby improving the efficacy of detection. We then apply this new time-varying measure of organized crime to investigate the underlying causes of this type of rent-seeking. As criminals infiltrate politics to capture public resources, we study how a positive shock in public spending (European Union transfers), affects this phenomenon. Employing a geographic Difference-in-Discontinuities design, we find a substantial and lasting increase in the predicted risk of mafia infiltration (up to 14 p.p.), emphasizing the unintended effects of delivering aid where criminal organizations can appropriate public funds.

Unpublished paper, 2024. 103p.

By  C.M. Hoeboer*, W.M. Kitselaar, J.F. Henrich, E.J. Miedzobrodzka, B. Wohlstetter, E. Giebels, G. Meynen, E.W. Kruisbergen, M. Kempes, M. Olff, C.H. de Kogel

COVID-19 caused a great burden on the healthcare system and led to lockdown measures across the globe. These measures are likely to influence crime rates, but a comprehensive overview on the impact of COVID-19 on crime rates is lacking. The aim of the current study was to systematically review evidence on the impact of COVID-19 measures on crime rates across the globe. We conducted a systematic search in several databases to identify eligible studies up until 6–12-2021. A total of 46 studies were identifed, reporting on 99 crime rates about robberies (n=12), property crime (n=15), drug crime (n=5), fraud (n=5), physical violence (n=15), sexual violence (n=11), homicides (n=12), cybercrime (n=3), domestic violence (n=3), intimate partner violence (n=14), and other crimes (n=4). Overall, studies showed that most types of crime temporarily declined during COVID-19 measures. Homicides and cybercrime were an exception to this rule and did not show significant changes following COVID-19 restrictions. Studies on domestic violence often found increased crime rates, and this was particularly true for studies based on call data rather than crime records. Studies on intimate partner violence reported mixed results. We found an immediate impact of COVID-19 restrictions on almost all crime rates except for homicides, cybercrimes and intimate partner violence.  

Published in American Journal of Criminal, Sociology, Political Science, Medicine November 2023

By Lin Liu, Jiayu Chang, Dongping Long, and Heng Liu

Existing research suggests that COVID-19 lockdowns tend to contribute to a decrease in overall urban crime rates. Most studies have compared pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to lockdown periods in Western cities. Few have touched on the fine variations during lockdowns. Equally rare are intracity studies conducted in China. This study tested the relationship between violent crime and COVID-19 lockdown policies in ZG City in southern China. The distance from the isolation location to the nearest violent crime site, called “the nearest crime distance”, is a key variable in this study. Kernel density mapping and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test are used to compare the pre-lockdown and post-lockdown periods to the lockdown period. Panel logistic regression is used to test the fine variations among different stages during the lockdown. The result found an overall decline in violent crime during the lockdown and a bounce-back post-lockdown. Violent crime moved away from the isolated location during the lockdown. This outward spread continued for the first two months after the lifting of the lockdown, suggesting a lasting effect of the lockdown policy. During the lockdown, weekly changes in COVID-19 risk ratings at the district level in ZG City also affected changes in the nearest crime distance. In particular, an increase in the risk rating increased that distance, and a drop in the risk rating decreased that distance. These findings add new results to the literature and could have policy implications for joint crime and pandemic prevention and control.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Dec; 19(23): 15525.

By Amy E. Nivette, Renee Zahnow, Raul Aguilar, Andri Ahven, et al.

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public spaces were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Nature Human Behaviour.2021.

By Daniel O'Connell,  Christy Visher,  Lin Liu

This Article reviews what is known from the field of criminology about the nature of crime patterns in general, focusing particularly on violence, violent people, and how violence manifests in the lives of individuals who commit crime. Broad consensus exists in the research community that offending careers of individuals who commit crimes vary substantially from person to person. Most people tend to commit non-violent crimes and while many violent offenders recidivate after being released from prison, the majority do not. Moreover, the type of violent crime committed—expressive versus instrumental—may be an important distinction. We draw several conclusions from the research on violence and violent recidivism and what it can mean for policymakers and their decision-making. Armed with accurate information about violent offending, policymakers, and practitioners may be able to propose appropriate policy changes and make more informed decisions about the likelihood of violent offending and recidivism among persons who commit crimes.  

103 Marq. L. Rev. 983 (2020). 

By The New South Wales Crime Commission

Tracking devices are a growing enabler of serious and organized crime in NSW. Accessible, inexpensive, and easily concealed – they are used by organized crime networks to monitor, locate, and ultimately attack their rivals. An initial review of joint operations between the Commission and partner agencies identified frequent and increasing use of tracking devices to facilitate murders, public place shootings, kidnappings, violent drug thefts, and drug trafficking, and tracking devices are extensively being used by high-risk domestic and family violence offenders. 

By matching sales data against criminal histories and intelligence records, Project Hakea identified that:

• 37% of customers who had purchased tracking devices were adversely known to police

• 25% of customers had a history of domestic and family violence

• 15% had a history of serious and organized crime

•  9% of customers had a history of both domestic and family violence and serious and organized crime.

In addition to the extensive use of tracking devices by organized criminals, their widespread use by domestic and family violence offenders creates an urgent need to address the issue. 

By Richard Sinclair, Matthew Bland, Bradley Savage

We found that romance fraud was rising year-on-year across every region in England and Wales, increasing 55% during the 3 years between October 2018 and October 2021. Fifty percent of all the romance fraud victims in the period resided in 17% of the places where romance fraud had occurred. A total of 439 locations (outward postcode areas) were identified as the “power few” in the first year of the data set. Of these 439 locations, 162 of them recurred in both of the following years, becoming chronic “hot spot” locations containing more than one in six of all reported romance fraud victims. The demography of victims in repeat locations differed considerably, but hot spots were more frequently predominantly populated by less affluent populations. We conclude that the current national one-size-fits-all fraud prevention approach may not be the most efficient or effective way to reach those victims who most require crime prevention advice. The National Fraud Intelligence Bureau, based in the City of London Police, could adopt a tailored approach to providing preventative information to local police forces based on the year-to-year patterns in crime and the associated intelligence provided by sociodemographic data sources such as Acorn.

Criminology & Public Policy Volume 22, Issue 4: Cybercrime and Cybersecurity Nov 2023 Pages 585-894

By Katherine Verdery

Surveillance and Identity: The author, Katherine Verdery, explores how being under surveillance by Romania's secret police during the Cold War affected her sense of identity and her work as an anthropologist.

Ethnography and Spying: The book delves into the similarities and differences between ethnographic research and spying, questioning the ethical implications of both practices.

Impact of Surveillance: Verdery reflects on the emotional and psychological impact of discovering her secret police file, which contained extensive surveillance records and accusations of espionage.

Historical Context: The narrative provides a detailed account of life în Romania under Nicolae Ceausescu's regime, highlighting the pervasive nature of state surveillance and its effects on individuals and society.

Duke University Press, 2018, 323 pages

By Svetlana Stephenson

Historical Context: The book explores the evolution of gangs in Russia, particularly during the 1990s when radical market reforms led to the rise of street gangs that evolved into sophisticated organized crime networks.

Gang Structure: Russian gangs are described as male-dominated, violent alliances that are deeply embedded in society, often overlapping with legitimate structures and mainstream institutions.

Economic Influence: Gangs transitioned from street-level extortion to more complex economic activities, including protection operations for large companies and involvement in the shadow economy.

Social Integration: Despite their criminal activities, gang members often maintain legitimate jobs and social ties, reflecting a unique"double helix" model of social incorporation in Russia.

Cornell University Press, 2015, 277 pages

By David M. Hart

Hobsbawm Thesis: Eric Hobsbawm's analysis of banditry as a form of political protest is applied to the Islamic world by David Hart, examining cases from Morocco, Algeria, and Pakistan.

Case Studies: The document includes detailed case studies of banditry in North Western Morocco, the Moroccan Central High Atlas, Colonial Algeria, and the North West Frontier of Pakistan.

Bandit Behavior: The analysis reveals that while elements of political protest were present, bandit behavior was influenced by various other factors, making the Hobsbawm thesis not always applicable.

Historical Context: The document provides historical context and examples of banditry, highlighting the complex interplay between bandits and political power in different regions.

Middle East & North African Studies Press, 1987, 86 pages

By Jonathan Lusthaus

Human Element in Cybercrime: The book emphasizes the human aspect of cybercrime, using the story of Roman Seleznev to illustrate how cyber criminals operate within specific social settings.

Industrialization of Cybercrime: Cybercrime has evolved from individual hackers to a sophisticated, profit-driven industry with specialized roles and professionalization.

Trust and Cooperation: Despite the anonymity and inherent distrust among cybercriminals, they have developed ways to cooperate and build trust, often through online forums and referrals.

Research and Methodology: The book is based on extensive field research over seven years, including 238 interviews, to provide a detailed overview of the cybercrime industry.

Harvard University Press, 2018, 289 pages

By Manudeep Bhuller,  Gordon B. Dahl,  Katrine V. Løken,  Magne Mogstad 

We study the costs associated with domestic violence (DV) in Norway by comparing outcomes before and after a DV report, using those who will be victimized in the future as controls. A DV report is associated with increased mental health diagnoses for both victims and their children and reduced financial resources. Victims experience marital dissolution, more doctor visits, lower employment, reduced earnings, and higher use of disability insurance. Their children are more likely to receive child protective services and commit a crime. Using a complementary regression discontinuity (RD) design, we find declines in children’s test scores and grade completion.   

Journal of Human Resources, April 2024, 59 (S) S152-S186

By: Cassandra Cross

This article investigates the contributing factors (or triggers) to the realization of romance fraud victimization, based on 1015 reports lodged with Scamwatch (Australian online reporting portal for fraud) between July 2018 and July 2019 (inclusive). The article examines the free text narrative of each report to propose five discernible trigger categories: further requests for money; characteristics of communications; verification checks; an offender's action(s); and being told by a third party. Based on a comprehensive understanding of these five categories, the article advocates for broader messaging approaches to encompass financial literacy and well-being, cyberliteracy and critical thinking skills, cybersecurity practices, and respectful and healthy relationships. Leveraging the use of these wider education and awareness campaigns could improve recognition of romance fraud. Importantly, it is suggested that banks and other financial institutions are in a strong position to focus their efforts on some of these broader messages to effect positive change.

Criminology & Public PolicyVolume 22, Issue 4: Cybercrime and Cybersecurity Nov 2023 Pages 585-894