By Tara Wheeler, Julia Bergeron-Smith, George Shaler, Lisa Sampson

Sex offender recidivism data can be difficult to comprehend, especially when conducting research across states. For example, sex offenders can be categorized in numerous ways: by the type of crime committed (e.g., rape, assault, exhibitionism), by offense severity, by victim age (adult or child). Likewise, recidivism definitions (e.g., rearrest, reconviction, or reincarceration) and timeframes (e.g., one-year, two-year, or three-years following release) can vary across local, state, and federal agencies. Thus, there is no single measure systemically used across jurisdictions. Recognizing the public’s concerns about sex offender recidivism, the Maine and Massachusetts Statistical Analysis Centers (SACs), proposed and received funding for a retrospective sex offender recidivism study through the Bureau of Justice Statistics, Department of Justice. This collaboration marks the first time either state has undertaken this type of study. This project studied the recidivism rates of Maine sex offenders who were released from prison between 2005 and 2019 and Massachusetts sex offenders released between 2009 and 2018. In total, the Massachusetts cohort was composed of 1,210 offenders and the Maine study of 905 offenders. Criminal history records were obtained for each offender from their respective states to determine whether the offender recidivated (i.e., committed post-release offenses that resulted in a conviction). To be included in the recidivism portion of this study, there must have been at least a five-year window between the time of release and the time the criminal history data was pulled. Overall, 880 offenders were included in the Massachusetts recidivism analysis and 661 in the Maine recidivism analysis. A primary interest area was to determine whether recidivism rates differed by offense severity (i.e., rape or non-rape) and victim age (i.e., child or adult), however, these two groupings are not entirely separate from one another— while rape is considered more severe than other types of sex offenses, crimes against children are also deemed to be more egregious than crimes against adults. Therefore, an offender typology—based on the original sex offenses associated with the commitment and subsequent release—was created that incorporates both victim type and offense severity. The first, and most severe, category is child rapist, which includes all offenders who committed a child rape offense, followed by the rapist category, which includes all other offenders who committed a rape offense. Next is child predator and is used for those who committed a sex offense against a child but did not commit a rape offense. Last, is the other category and captures those who did not fall within one of the prior three categories. To gain a better understanding of recidivism among the sex offender population, survival analysis (specifically, the Cox Proportional Hazards regression method) was conducted to determine which offender characteristics, if any, influenced recidivism rates. Using this approach, researchers were able to control for other known attributes. The attributes tested in this study were: • offender type • severity of sex offense(s) (Maine only) • number of sex offense(s) • commitment length (Maine only) • release type (supervision or discharge) • security level of facility offender was released from (Massachusetts only) • release age Key Findings • Age at earliest sex offense associated with commitment varied by offender type for both Maine and Massachusetts. Interestingly, child predators had a mean age that was statistically higher than that of rapists and child rapists. o In Massachusetts, the average offense age of child predators was 36.6 years old, which was significantly higher than the offense age of rapists (31.1 years old) and child rapists (33.9 years old). o For Maine, child predators were, on average, 35.0 years old at the time of their earliest sex offense associated with commitment, compared to 30.4 years old for child rapists and 31.1 years old for rapists. • Maine’s five-year recidivism rate (43%) was much higher than the Massachusetts five year recidivism rate (25%). While there are numerous potential scenarios that could explain the differences in recidivism rates, it is important to note that each state has its own criminal laws and procedures that, in turn, impacts the underlying study population and their recidivism rates. For instance, an offense that resulted in commitment to state prison in Maine might result in a county jail commitment for Massachusetts. Therefore, caution should be taken when making comparisons between the two states. • Offender type, severity of sex offense, and release age were found to be associated with Maine recidivism rates. When coupled with release age, release type was also found to have an influence on recidivism rates. Holding all other attributes constant: o Individuals whose most severe sex offense was a misdemeanor are expected to recidivate at a rate 45% higher than those with a felony level offense. o ‘Other’ type offenders (those whose offenses fell short of rape and did not target children) have an expected recidivism rate 45% higher than offenders who committed sex offenses against children (child predators and child rapists) o Age at release, both by itself and as an interaction with release type, is associated with recidivism rates. For every 10-year increase in age at release, the predicted recidivism rate decreased by 21%. However, for offenders who were released to supervision, the hazard rate decreases even further, with supervised offenders having a 38% decrease in risk for every 10-year increase of age at release. • Of the attributes tested, offender type, release type, release level, and release age were found to be associated with Massachusetts recidivism rates. Holding all other attributes constant: o Offenders released from a maximum-security level facility are predicted to recidivate at a rate 2.4 times higher than that of offenders released from a medium security level facility or lower. o ‘Other’ type sex offenders are predicted to recidivate at a rate 115% higher than those who committed child-based sex offenses (child predators and child rapists). Meanwhile, non-child rape offenders are expected to recidivate at a rate 58% higher than child offenders. o Discharged offenders released without supervision have an expected recidivism rate 61% higher than offenders who were supervised following release. o For every 10-year increase in age, the recidivism rate is expected to decrease by 37%.    

 Portland:  Maine Statistical Analysis Center;   Massachusetts Statistical Analysis Center, 2023. 50p.

By Kara Miller

The Oklahoma Statistical Analysis Center (SAC), a unit located within the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation (OSBI), is tasked with analyzing and reporting crime data. In 2019, Oklahoma House Bill 2597 was passed by the legislature and signed by the Governor. Effective November 1, 2019, the bill modified Oklahoma law to permit anyone over 21 years or military services members and/or veterans over 18 to carry a firearm without first obtaining a self-defense act (SDA) license provided they are not disqualified based on their criminal history. In order to evaluate whether the change in law impacted crime in Oklahoma, the SAC chose to study violent, gun-related crimes in Oklahoma using State Incident-Based Reporting System (SIBRS) data for the offenses of “murder and non-negligent manslaughter” and aggravated assault. This initial report evaluates 2018 data to establish a baseline. Future reports will analyze data from 2019 and beyond comparing the results to this benchmark report. Key Findings:  For the 37 victims of murder where the sex was known: o Male victims (27) were killed by offenders whose sex was reported as male (17, 56.7%), female (8, 26.7%), or unknown (5, 16.7%). o Female victims (10) were killed by offenders whose sex was reported as male (9, 90.0%) or female (1, 10.0%).  The majority (540, 79.3%) of victims of aggravated assault with a gun were reported with no injury. Victim-to-offender relationship: o For 73.7% of victim-to-offender relationships for victims of murder/non-negligent manslaughter, the victim was within the family of the offender (42.1%), or the victim was outside of the family but known to the offender (31.6%). o For 64.8% of victim-to-offender relationships for victims of aggravated assault, the victim was within the family of the offender (17.8%), or the victim was outside of the family but known to the offender (47.0%).  Victims of Aggravated Assault and Injuries of Aggravated Assault is defined as the presence of a weapon that could cause serious injury or presence of severe injuries.  Nearly 80.0% of victims were reported with no injury. 

Oklahoma City: Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation. Office of Criminal Justice Statistics, 2020. 81p. 

By Kara Miller, Monique Mogilka,

The Oklahoma Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) is co-located with the state’s criminal history repository, the state’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, and the State Incident Based Reporting (SIBRS) Program. The purpose for studying robbery in Oklahoma is to increase access to and understanding of National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) enhanced data. By analyzing NIBRS compatible data, the SAC strives to demonstrate the value SIBRS data can have for local agencies and government planners, as well as its utility for problem solving and understanding larger aspects of crimes reported in Oklahoma. The SAC and the Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation (OSBI) demonstrate the value and utility of SIBRS data to encourage all local law enforcement agencies (LEAs) in Oklahoma to commit to SIBRS reporting and to report quality data. Key Findings:    The number of robberies reported varied nearly every month during the year, although the overall trend was an increase in reports between January and August. The number of reported robberies then fluctuated significantly between August and November. During this time period, reported robberies: o decreased 41.0% from August to September, o Increased 95.7% from September to October, and o Decreased 42.2% from October to November. The majority of robbery victims did not know the offender, as 60.9% of Victim to Offender Relationships were classified as Not Known to Victim. 33.9% of robberies were at a residence, with 40.5% of residential robberies occurring between 21:00-03:00. 1  61.1% of arrestees were arrested “On-View”, and only 25.0% were armed.  Money was the most commonly reported property type stolen (26.3%). However, automobiles which accounted for only 3.9% of the types of property stolen, accounted for 38.8% of the total value of stolen property. 

Oklahoma City: Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation, 2020? 81p.

By Kara Miller,  Derek Still

In July 2020, the United States Supreme Court ruled in McGirt v. Oklahoma, 140 S.Ct. 2452, that the Muscogee (Creek) Nation’s reservation, contained within Oklahoma, was never disestablished by Congress and as a result, the State of Oklahoma lacked criminal jurisdiction on reservation land. As a result of this ruling, major crimes committed within this region with a tribal offender(s) or victim(s) could not be prosecuted in state court. These crimes must be investigated and processed through federal or tribal jurisdictions (law enforcement and court systems). While this decision initially only affected the Muscogee (Creek) Nation, it was later expanded to four other Nations (Cherokee, Chickasaw, Choctaw, and Seminole) through rulings from the Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals; together, these five Nations are known as the Five Civilized Tribes (Figure 1). This area encompasses approximately 40 of Oklahoma’s 77 counties (51.9%). The McGirt ruling, as well as those that followed which addressed other tribes, has impacted all aspects of the criminal justice system in Oklahoma including but not limited to local (city and county), state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies and court systems. In the aftermath of these rulings, law enforcement agencies are required to assess not only if the reported crime took place within Indian Country but also if either the offender and/or victim was native. This evaluation is essential to the process as it determines jurisdiction to investigate and, if needed, prosecute the crime. This ruling significantly impacted the number of resources needed by the various local, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement and court entities to effectively investigate and prosecute crimes in Oklahoma. Considering how this ruling impacts the resources of the criminal justice community in Oklahoma, the Statistical Analysis Center (SAC) identified an opportunity for further research. The SAC was interested in examining crimes reported in the geographic area of the Five Civilized Tribes as well as surveying the criminal justice community. The SAC analyzed reported crime to identify any changes in reporting practices whether it be the number of crimes or an increase/decrease in individuals reported as American Indian/Alaskan Native (AI/AN). When surveying law enforcement agencies and court systems, the SAC was interested in learning how these entities have responded to the McGirt decision, and how it impacted their agency.  

Oklahoma City: Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation, Office of Criminal Justice Statistics 2023. 67p.

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By Eliza Earle Ferguson

Crimes of Passion: The book explores how crimes of passion,particularly those involving intimate violence, were understood and treated in fin-de-siècle Paris. These acts were often seen as love stories gone wrong and were frequently acquitted.

Gender Dynamics: It highlights the gendered nature of intimate violence, showing how men and women experienced and justified violence differently, often influenced by societal norms and economic conditions.

Community and Legal Interactions: The document discusses the role of community networks and the legal system in addressing intimate violence, revealing tensions between local knowledge and state power.

Historical Context: The book situates these issues within the broader social and cultural context of 19th-century Paris, providing a detailed analysis of how intimate violence intersected with gender, class, and urban life.

JHU Press, Mar 19, 2010, 268 pages

By Ghulam Hyder Sindhi

Historical Context: The document explores the historical and cultural roots of honour killings, highlighting how these practices have evolved over time and their deep-seated presence in various societies.

Status of Women: It discusses the status of women in Pakistan,emphasizing the social, economic, and political challenges they face,including limited access to education and economic opportunities.

Violence Against Women: The document provides an in-depth analysis of different forms of violence against women, including domestic violence, psychological violence, and honour killings.

Recommendations: It offers recommendations for improving the status of women, such as legal reforms, educational initiatives, and the need for a broader social movement to raise awareness and change societal attitudes.

National Institute of Pakistan Studies, 2007, 212 pages

By Kasey Stricklin and Megan K McBride

Social media bots—simply, automated programs on social media platforms—affect US national security, public discourse, and democracy. As the country continues to grapple with both foreign and domestic disinformation, the laws and platform policies governing the use of social media bots are incredibly important. As part of CNA’s study, Social Media Bots: Implications for Special Operations Forces, our literature review found that the landscape of such regulations is difficult to piece together, and applicable provisions and policies are disparately catalogued. This CNA primer helps to fill this gap by helping policy-makers and national security practitioners understand the laws and social media platform policies as they currently exist. We also consider the challenges and dilemmas faced by legislators, and social media platforms, as they attempt to craft relevant provisions to address social media bots and malign influence, and we conclude with a brief look at the consequences for breaking platform policies.

The Legal Framework: US policy-makers are constrained in their passage of bot-related laws by a number of factors. First, legislators must consider free speech rights granted by the First Amendment of the Constitution. Additionally, Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act (CDA 230) hinders the ability of policy-makers to hold social media platforms legally responsible for any material posted on their site. Further, the slow speed of congressional action compared to technological advancement, and the barriers to obtaining reliable information on the social media bot threat, have proved difficult to overcome. There are no US federal laws governing social media automation, although members of Congress have introduced several relevant pieces of legislation over the last few years. While there is some congressional interest in crafting botrelated legislation, the political will to pass such provisions has yet to materialize.

In the international arena, the European Union has been a leader in efforts to counter disinformation; it introduced a nonbinding Code of Practice in October 2018, to which many of the most prominent social media companies signed on. As a result, the platforms committed themselves to self-regulation aimed at stamping out disinformation on their sites, which includes closing fake accounts and labeling bot communications. In May 2020, the European Commission reported that, though there were positive developments toward countering disinformation, there is still much room for improvement in labeling and removing bots. It is important to keep in mind, though, that the EU has a permanent bureaucracy to study problems and propose legally and non-legally binding legislation. In the US, legislation works differently, as a legislative champion with significant clout needs to emerge in order to push forward a proposal.

Platform Policies: The social media companies face their own dilemmas when thinking about the creation of effective bot regulations. Unlike policy-makers, platforms are beholden to shareholders; and higher platform engagement generally leads to higher share values. Because bots make up a large portion of monthly active users on some platforms, the companies may be reluctant to kick off these automated accounts. However, public pressure since the 2016 US election has created a greater financial incentive to ensure engagement is authentic. The companies also worry about regulating too extensively out of fear they will then be admitting they have an affirmative duty to moderate and thus lead to the revocation of their limited immunities under CDA 230. This tension is evident in the run-up to the US presidential elections, as the social media companies seek to ensure the truthfulness of candidates on their sites, they also risk one side of the political spectrum regarding them as politically biased and seeking to regulate them in response.

Instead of specifically focusing on bot activity, the platforms tend to address bot behavior through other policies on banned behavior. We broke out the policies relevant to bots into four categories: automation, fake accounts and misrepresentation, spam, and artificial amplification. Figure 1 depicts the way these policies often overlap in detailing prohibited bot behaviors. 

The consequences for breaking platform policies vary, with the sites often looking at the specific violation, the severity of the infraction, and the user’s history on the platform. While they may simply hand out a warning or restrict the post’s viewership, the sites also reserve the right to ban users or accounts, and can even go so far as to sue for violation of their terms.

The ever-evolving threats from disinformation and malicious bots will likely continue to cause consternation in the US government. However, experts are skeptical that Congress will find a legislative solution in the near future, despite enhanced attention to the problem. Therefore, the social media platforms are likely to shoulder much of the burden going forward, and it is an open question how and to what extent the platforms should police themselves. As they grapple with the prevalence of automated accounts operating on their sites, the platforms’ policies and enforcement provisions will continue to evolve to meet the threats of the day. However, it may ultimately be the attention of the press and American public, or the initiative of a regulatory agency like the Federal Trade Commission, that provides the needed impetus for change on these issues.

Arlington, VA: CNA, 2000. 40p.

By Byongook Moon, John McCluskey,  Guan Saw

This report summarizes a research project on violence against teachers in the 50 largest school districts in the U.S. The report discusses the project’s main goals and objectives; research design and methodology, including data collection and sample; and research findings. It also examines school policies, and notes some conclusions and implications for practice. The results section explores the prevalence of seven distinct types of victimization that occurred during Waves I and II of the research project, along with negative impacts on victimized teachers, such as emotional distress and distrust of students. The report also examines how school administrators respond to incidents of teacher victimization and the satisfaction or dissatisfaction of victimized teachers regarding the school responses. The Appendix documents include four manuscripts that have either been accepted or are under review for publication in academic journals, providing detailed examinations of the primary goals and key findings of the research.

Final report to the U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2024. 29p.

By Isabelle Sin, Shannon Minehan, Janet Fanslow, Alayne Mikahere-Hall

Drawing upon longitudinal data from the Growing Up in New Zealand (GUiNZ) study, this research looks at the barriers to mothers leaving partners who use violence. The persistence of conflict or abuse experienced by mothers over the antenatal to 9-month period, and over the 54-month to 8-year period was examined. For these two periods, the association between intimate partner violence (IPV) at the start of the period and the relationship breaking up during this period was explored.

Key findings

• Mothers with fewer financial resources are less able to leave partners who use violence. 

• Younger mothers, mothers who lack access to a car, mothers with poor physical health, mothers who are not part of a community, mothers who place high importance on maintaining cultural traditions (who are largely non-Europeans), and mothers whose partners have low education or earnings may also be less able to leave partners who use violence.

• Mothers who report conflict or IPV in one survey wave are quite likely to report it again in the following survey wave (one to several years later). However, a considerable proportion of such mothers report no IPV in the following wave, either because their partners stopped using violence or their relationship ended. Working Paper.

Wellington, NZ: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, 2024.

By Nina Jankowicz, Isabella Gomez-O’Keefe, Lauren Hoffman and Andrea Vidal Becker

Technology facilitated gender-based violence (TFGBV) is not an in­tractable problem. But it must no longer be the responsibility solely of women’s advocacy groups. Others – technology companies, governments, civil society organizations, law enforcement, businesses, schools – must step up and work in unison to combat TFGBV in order to to reflect its main­streamed effects on society. This report, drawing on a case study around the online harassment of Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant, assesses the state of research on TFGBV as well as recent global policy progress made on this issue, and offers a number of practical solutions to make women and girls safer online. The authors argue that TFGBV must be mainstreamed to be mitigated, centering women’s experiences in broader policy debates. Technology companies, governments, civic tech organizations, law enforcement, employers, schools, and others must mainstream their work to combat TFGBV to reflect its mainstreamed effects on society. To this end, the authors recommend a number of practical solutions to the specific and pressing issues that women and girls face online today. Addressing the urgent changes described here will not only make women and girls safer and ensure their voices are heard, but also improve the safety and free expression for everyone who uses the internet, building more robust, representative democracies.

The recommendations are presented under the following themes:

• Ensuring platform accountability and action

• Urgently addressing deepfake image-based sexual abuse

• Supporting victims and survivors of TFGBV

• Deepening research and mainstreaming advocacy.

New York: Columbia University, Institute of Global Politics, 2024. 41p.

By Jai Gupta

This article aims to explore the relationship between weather and crime by answering the question: To what extent does the weather in cities with varying year-round temperatures have different relationships with both property and violent crime? The current literature has found a significant correlation between the increase in outside temperature with the increase in crime. However, this relationship has not been compared between warm and cold cities with relatively similar city variables, such as demographics, poverty rates, and others. The researcher performed a quantitative, correlational, ex post facto study to address this gap in the literature. The researcher examined three weather variables: average average temperature, average high temperature, and average low temperature across six cities. These six cities were split into three pairs, each pair having a warm and cold city. The researcher found four principle findings: cities with colder year-round temperatures had a more significant correlation between weather and crime; of the weather variables examined, the average low temperature had the strongest relationship with crimes across all cities; between violent and property crime, property crime had a stronger correlation with all weather variables on average; and lastly, as temperature increases across all weather variables, crime, on average, also increased. While more research should be conducted, these findings hope to serve local policy makers and law enforcement on better predicting crime.

Unpublished paper,  (April 30, 2024).

By  Aika Hui , Paul Salkovskis, Joshua Rumble-Browne

The current systematic review aimed to critically examine the growing body of literature proposing that there is an ‘intergenerational cycle’ of violence, whereby victims of abuse during childhood are posited to have a higher propensity of becoming perpetrators during adulthood. Specifically, this review examined whether there is quality evidence supporting the relationship between childhood sexual abuse victimisation and interpersonal violence perpetration (sexual/physical) in adult men. 20 studies published between 1992 and 2022 were included in this review. The quality of studies was systematically assessed to provide a weighted conclusion to the primary research question. Overall, there was limited evidence to confidently support or reject the link between childhood sexual abuse and physical and/or sexual violence in adulthood for men. The current review found that whilst there were studies that found associations on a univariate and multivariate level between childhood sexual abuse and interpersonal violence in adult men, only 25 % of the papers included in this review were deemed high-quality and significant methodological issues limit the validity of conclusions made. Addi tionally, a sizeable proportion of high-quality studies at both univariate and multivariate levels of analysis suggest mixed results or did not find a significant relationship. Implications for future research studies in this area in terms of the encouragement of a more critical stance towards the assumption of ‘intergenerational cycles’ of violence as well as recommendations for methodological improvements of studies were discussed.  

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 78, September–October 2024, 101928

By Brandon C. Welsh , Steven N. Zane ,Daniel P. Mears 

The present state of calls for and efforts to implement evidence-based policy provide a powerful foundation for propelling a movement toward bringing about rational, cost-efficient, and humane policies for reducing aggression, crime, and violence. The main aim of this article is to report on new developments in evidence-based policy (EBP)—what we view as giving rise to a new era in crime and violence prevention and social justice. The article describes major advances, both in research and policy, and discusses pressing challenges that confront EBP in crime/violence and justice, drawing on key findings from a new, comprehensive book project. The overall conclusion of the findings is heartening and yet sobering. Research and policy have made substantial progress, but there is much more to be done. The specific details of this work are organized around three questions that are foundational to evidence-based crime/violence and justice policy today: (a) How is research contributing to and guiding EBP? (b) What are productive and new ways to think about EBP? and (c) What are strategies for pro moting greater use of EBP?    

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 77, July–August 2024, 101940

By David Weisburd, Taryn Zastrow  , Kiseong Kuen  , Martin A. Andresen

Our paper reports on a systematic review of crime concentration studies over the last 35 years. We identify 47 papers that report on crime concentrations at a micro geographic unit of analysis. These papers produced 49 estimates of general crime concentration for crime incidents at streets segments for a specific cumulative proportion of crime. The median concentration for these estimates is 50 % of crime found at 4.5 % of streets, and 25 % of crime at 1.25 % of streets. The bandwidth for 50 % crime concentration is 9.3 % (1.7–11.0 %), and for 25 % crime concentration 3.0 % (0.4–3.4 %). Using the interquartile range to exclude outliers, we found a bandwidth of 2.5 % (3.2–5.7 %) for 50 % of crime, and 1.4 % (0.8–2.2 %) for 25 % of crime. Crime concentration was generally stronger for specific types of crime, and bandwidths of concentration were generally smaller. Using alternative measures of crime and different micro geographies produces similar conclusions regarding strong crime concentration at place with narrow bandwidths. Our review shows that a general framework of a law of crime concentration applies across a large number of cities across many regions around the world. 

Aggression and Violent Behavior Volume 78, September–October 2024, 101979

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By Matthew Talbert & Jessica Wolfendale

Definition and Causes of War Crimes: The book explores what constitutes war crimes and critiques the situationist view, which attributes war crimes to external pressures like battlefield conditions and military culture.

Dispositional Account: The authors propose an alternative dispositional theory, emphasizing the role of individual character traits and moral agency in the commission of war crimes.

Moral Responsibility: The book argues against excusing perpetrators based on situational pressures, advocating for a theory of responsibility that considers the attitudes and beliefs expressed through their actions.

Prevention and Punishment: It discusses strategies for preventing war crimes, including better military ethics training and understanding the social and moral frameworks that lead to such crimes

Oxford University Press, 2018, 168 pages

By Alex Armand, Paul Atwell, Joseph Gomes, Giuseppe Musillo, Yannik Schenk

This paper investigates the role of mass media in shaping racial tolerance and advancing civil rights in the post-WWII United States. We study the first attempt in the history of mass media to use a radio broadcast targeted at children to promote an inclusive American society. In 1946, amid persistent racial divisions, the popular radio series The Adventures of Superman launched Operation Intolerance, a sequence of new episodes promoting equality, rejecting racial discrimination, and exposing the KKK's bigotry. Using digitized historical data on U.S. radio stations and state-of-the-art radio propagation models, we compute geographic exposure to the broadcasts. Exploiting exogenous exposure to the broadcasts, we employ a cohort study design to analyze individual-level data from 1964 to 1980–a crucial period for civil rights activism and legislation in the United States. We find lasting impacts on those exposed as children, including increased support for civil rights, improved interracial relations, and more progressive political attitudes. These effects translate into greater alignment with the Civil Rights Movement, evidenced by increased support for protests and diminished institutional trust, and further manifested by reduced participation in the Vietnam War. Additionally, county-level panel data illustrate how areas covered by the broadcast in 1946 evolve towards less segregationist attitudes, a lower presence of the KKK, and an increase in civil rights activism and prominence in discourse.

Bonn: Institute of Labor Economics, 2024.

By Institute for Strategic Dialogue

From mainstream to extreme, from far left to far right, and large platforms to fringe ecosystems, antisemitism on social media is a universal challenge. For many years and across different events, geographies, and languages, ISD has sought to understand, track, and analyze online antisemitism. This document aims to synthesize ISD’s findings, providing a summary of relevant literature as a tool for informing the work of ISD’s Coalition to Counter Online Antisemitism.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 17p.

By The  Institute for Strategic Dialogue

The rapidly evolving online extremist landscape in New Zealand means new strategies for intervention are needed. This playbook – developed in consultation with New Zealand’s rich tapestry of civil society, communities, and practitioners engaged in prevention – offers practical frameworks for projects promoting positive online interventions to tackle online extremism. Based on an analysis of the rapidly evolving landscape of online extremism, the playbook takes stock of established and emerging intervention models. It brings together domestic and international best practices and suggests potential avenues for new positive intervention approaches. Finally, it reflects on practical considerations for programming, including monitoring and evaluation, safeguarding, operational security, and ethical considerations. This playbook examines the shift from violent groups to online extremism, highlighting digital literacy, audience communication, and proactive engagement with at-risk individuals.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 37p.

By Paul M. Reeping & David Hemenway 

Background: Previous studies have linked weather to crime and aggression but have not considered the causal structure of the variables included in the model(s).

Methods: This cross-sectional study used data from 2012 to 2016 to measure the association between weather and the number of shootings in Chicago. The number of shootings per day was obtained via the Chicago Tribune (2012–2016). Daily high temperature, humidity, wind speed, difference in temperature from historical average, precipitation type, and amount, were extracted via The Weather Underground. Weekends, holidays, and other non-school days were also included as possible effect measure modifiers. Causally adjusted negative binomial regressions were used to evaluate the associations between the exposures of interest and the daily number of shootings.

Results: A 10-degree (°C) higher temperature was significantly associated with 34% more shootings on weekdays and 42% more shootings on weekends or holidays. A 10-degree higher temperature than average was also associated with a 33.8% higher rate of shootings.

Conclusion: In recent years, shootings in Chicago were more likely to happen on warm days and especially during the weekends or holidays. This finding is in line with studies that have linked crime to higher temperatures and also suggests that shootings may be related to when individuals are outside and more likely to encounter violence. Interventions that keep people inside, such as air-conditioning and summer programs for students, might be effective in reducing the number of shootings in Chicago. We believe using a causal structure is useful for understanding the link between weather and shootings.

Injury Epidemiology volume 7, Article number: 31 (2020) 

By Kondakov, Alexander Sasha

Violent Affections uncovers techniques of power that work to translate emotions into violence against queer people. Based on an analysis of over 300 criminal cases of anti-queer violence in Russia before and after the introduction of the ‘gay propaganda’ law, the book shows how violent acts are framed in emotional language by perpetrators during their criminal trials. It then utilizes an original methodology of studying ‘legal memes’ and argues that these individual affective states are directly connected to the political violence aimed at queer lives more generally. The main aim of Violent Affections is to explore the social mechanisms and techniques that impact anti-queer violence evidenced in the reviewed cases. Alexander Sasha Kondakov expands upon two sets of interdisciplinary literature – queer theory and affect theory – in order to conceptualize what is referred to as neo-disciplinary power. Taking the empirical observations from Russia as a starting point, he develops an original explanation of how contemporary power relations are changing from those of late modernity as envisioned by Foucault’s Panopticon to neo-disciplinary power relations of a much more fragmented, fluid, and unstructured kind – the Memeticon. The book traces how exactly affections circulate from body to body as a kind of virus and eventually invade the body and respond with violence. This analytic effort draws on the arguments from memetics – the theory of how pieces of information pass on from one body to another as they thrive to survive by continuing to resonate. This work makes the argument truly interdisciplinary.

London: UCL Press, 2022.