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Posts in social sciences
State of the Art: How Cultural Property Became a National-Security Priority

By Nikita Lalwani

For much of the twentieth century, the United States did little to help repatriate looted antiquities, thanks to a powerful coalition of art collectors, museums, and numismatists who preferred an unregulated art market. Today, however, the country treats the protection of cultural property as an important national-security issue. What changed? This Essay tells the story of how a confluence of events—including the high-profile destruction and looting of cultural property in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as the revelation that looted antiquities were helping to bankroll terrorist organizations in the Middle East—convinced both Congress and the State Department to take the issue seriously. It then asks what this shift says about how the United States sets its policy agenda and reflects on how cultural property law should evolve from here.

Yale Law Journal, VOLUME 130, 2020-2021

How Organised Crime Operates Illegal Betting, Cyber Scams & Modern Slavery in Southeast Asia

By  James Porteous

This report examines human trafficking linked to organised crime groups involved in illegal betting and related criminal activity in four key regions in Southeast Asia. Research was primarily via desktop information gathering conducted in 2022/23, supplemented by the expertise and existing knowledge of the Mekong Club and the Asian Racing Federation Council on Anti-Illegal Betting and Related Financial Crime in human trafficking and illegal betting, respectively. Key findings are: • Tens of thousands of people are being held in modern slavery conditions to work in organised illegal betting and cyber-scam operations across Southeast Asia. • These operations, which are run by individuals with long histories of involvement in illegal betting and organised crime across Asia, are estimated to make at least USD 40 to 100 billion a year in illicit profits from such activity. • Some individuals are recruited on false job advertisements, have their passports removed and are kept in dormitories attached to fully contained casino compounds as forced labour to promote illegal betting websites and engage in industrial-scale cyber-fraud such as “pig butchering”, romance scams, and cryptocurrency Ponzi schemes. • Workers are typically not permitted to leave without paying large ransoms to their captors, and can be sold and traded between organised crime groups. Fines for breaking rules or failing to hit monetary targets are added to victims’ ransoms. • Reports on victim testimony and online video shows “staff” being beaten with iron bars, shocked with cattle prods, tied up, and subject to other forms of torture. Female victims have been forced into sex work for failing to meet targets. • The groups running such operations have been active in organising and promoting gambling across Asia since at least the 1990s. Because many of the core activities in this business (e.g., movement of money across borders, violent debt collection, bribery of local officials, provision of related “entertainment” such as narcotics and sex), are illicit, such operations have by necessity been closely associated with, or directly run by, individuals with organised crime backgrounds. • In the early 2000s, this business was supercharged by the development of online gambling (both casino games and sports betting), run directly out of existing casinos or related properties, which massively increased the target market, and has grown to be a trillion dollar illegal industry funding organised crime. • Attempts to profit from this by governments in Southeast Asia, typically by licensing operators for a fee, have led to the spread of such operations across the region and had major negative impacts, including widespread corruption. It has also concentrated operations in self-contained compounds and so-called special economic zones which local police are often unwilling or unable to enter or investigate. • Hundreds of thousands of workers are required to serve the industry in marketing, customer recruitment, funds transfers, tech support and related fields. • Pre-pandemic, demand for workers was usually satisfied by voluntary means, although an unknown percentage of “voluntary” arrivals were held in modern-slavery like conditions, and there were related human trafficking aspects such as trafficking of sex workers to serve the industry. • This began to change in 2018 as a result of China’s growing concern over cross-border illegal betting, and change was accelerated massively by travel restrictions due to the pandemic, which cut off the supply of workers. • At the same time, the organised criminal groups had a key business line – land-based casinos – essentially closed down because of travel restrictions. As a result, they greatly expanded and developed existing cyber-scam operations, leveraging their expertise and technology in areas such as social media marketing, customer recruitment and cryptocurrency, which were in place from their online illegal betting operations. • Now, as the pandemic recedes, the organised crime groups running these operations have, in effect, hugely increased their potential revenue by complementing illegal betting with cyber-scam operations of comparable scale. • The success of such operations has been an enormous financial boon to organised crime, for whom cyber scams and illegal betting are just two of many illicit business lines that include money laundering as a service, illicit wildlife trafficking and production and distribution of methamphetamine and heroin. • The vast profits from such operations have provided plentiful ammunition to corrupt local authorities, and the operations in this group are frequently protected by powerful politicians and/or armed militias. • Global attention on the issue has not eliminated this activity, just displaced it into even more vulnerable jurisdictions, leading some to fear the industry could lead to geopolitical instability.   

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2023. 39p.

Variable Betting Duty & the Impact on Turnover, Illegal Betting & Taxation Revenues

By Martin Purbrick  

The report provides an analysis of variable Betting Duty (tax) rates on racing and sports betting operators to assess the impact on legal markets of higher rates and the related impact on betting turnover in the illegal betting markets. The economic impact of excessive Betting Duty in the Internet age is to drive consumers to the illegal betting market.

  • The highest rate of Betting Duty noted is in Hong Kong, at 75% of GGR. • The lowest rate of Betting Duty noted is in South Africa, at 6% of GGR. • The median rate of Betting Duty noted is in France, at 37.7% of GGR. • The highest Betting Duty rate in Hong Kong exists with an estimated illegal market of USD 257 per head of population, with lessening illegal markets per head of population with correspondingly lower Betting Duty rates of USD 61 in Singapore (25% Betting Duty), USD 59 per head in South Africa (6.5%), USD30 in Australia (10% to 20%), and USD 11.44 in the USA (6.75% to 51%). • Betting Duty rates have an impact on the turnover in betting markets, causing customers to potentially move from legal (licensed) to illegal (unlicensed) betting channels. • Higher Betting Duty rates lead to an increased theoretical margin to betting odds (which betting operators build in to ensure a profit margin), consequent increases to the takeout rate of the operator, increased prices for the customer, and inevitably drive customers to illegal betting markets where odds are better value because of no take out rate. • Illegal betting operators pay no Betting Duty or any other taxes and hence have no theoretical margin relating to taxation costs. There is hence a permanent price differential between the legal and illegal betting markets, with illegal markets consequently offering better odds (prices) to consumers. Betting customers, like the consumers of most products, are price sensitive and all things being equal prefer a cheaper betting product. • Higher Betting Duty rates also have increasingly less impact on consumer protection (when intended to discourage betting and gambling in society) as raising rates has the impact of migrating customers from the more expensive legal to the less expensive illegal betting market.  Government policy makers and gambling regulators should seek a commercially reasonable and stable Betting Duty rate that provides a balance between channelling gambling demand to the legal betting sector and allowing licensed betting operators to effectively compete with the illegal market.  
Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation Council on Anti-Illegal Betting & Related Financial Crime, 2023. 30p.

social sciencesMaddy B
Banditry and Insecurity: Are There Ungoverned Spaces in Nigeria?

By Oluwaseun Kugbayi and Adeleke Adegbami

Many towns and villages in Nigeria have been experiencing bandits activities, vis-à-vis kidnapping, armed robbery, murder, rape, cattle-rustling, and violent actions in recent years. These activities have continued to escalate despite the presence of security agencies such as – the Nigerian Army, the Nigerian Navy, the Nigerian Air Force, the Nigerian Police, the State Security Service, the National Intelligence Agency, and the Defence Intelligence among others. The unabated bandits' activities in part of the country depict a picture of ungoverned spaces, which suggests that there are territories that are experiencing a vacuum of political order. The study for that reason examines the connections between banditry and the ungoverned spaces, as well as, analyses the effects of bandits' activities on Nigeria and Nigerians. Using the discourse analysis that relies on secondary sources, the paper argues that the inability to govern some territories adequately in Nigeria has created a vacuum for bandits’ activities to thrive.
Law Research Review Quarterly, (4), 399-418. https://doi.org/10.15294/lrrq.v9i4.71054

social sciencesMaddy B
Enforcement of Drug Laws Refocusing on Organized Crime Elites

By Global Commission on Drug Policy 

Illegal drug markets provide an immense source of power and revenue for organized criminal groups. That has remained the case despite the vast investment of political, financial, social, and military capital into the global “war on drugs,” which has also generated a vast and tragic human cost. Far from curtailing drug markets, which are in fact expanding in scale and complexity worldwide, repressive criminal justice and military responses to drug trafficking have exacerbated the already profound impacts of drug-related organized crime, from prolific violence in certain states to increased corruption, and undermined political and economic stability. Deep-seated schisms continue in international debates on drug policy. Despite renewed commitment to the prohibitionist approach at the March 2019 Ministerial Declaration of the United Nations (UN) Commission on Narcotic Drugs (CND), there is increasing acknowledgement within the UN system of the harms of the current drug control regime, and the need to pursue options such as decriminalization of use and possession for personal use. Countries are increasingly adopting decriminalization models, and the legalization and regulation of cannabis for recreational use is becoming a reality in a number of jurisdictions. Yet at the same time, other countries have moved in the opposite direction, redoubling efforts to eradicate drug use through punitive approaches which harm health and human rights. Given this highly polarized context, the need for reform-minded states to advocate for evidence-based responses to organized crime and drug trafficking is greater than ever. This report supports this effort by building on the five key pathways towards improving drug policy as outlined in the Global Commission’s 2014 report. Alongside strategies to ensure the health and safety of those using drugs, this coherent five-fold program advocates for refocused enforcement responses to drug trafficking and organized crime as an essential part of drug policy reform. This report provides an overview of how the global “war on drugs” has, counter to its ostensible aims, fed and empowered transnational organized crime. More effective responses to transnational organized crime and drug trafficking – through both targeted and measured law enforcement approaches and development strategies which counter the root causes of organized crime – are possible and may be enacted even while markets remain illegal. The legal regulation of drugs offers an unprecedented opportunity to move drugs markets out of criminal control, as the Global Commission stated last year, but also presents new challenges for countering organized crime. This report explores lessons learned both in a context of prohibition and of a legally regulated market. Implementation of more progressive drug policies has often been held back by the international control regime; through a lack of coherence among UN entities, between regional bodies, and the deep-seated conservatism in the international regime. As such, this report considers the past record of the international drug control regime with respect to the fight against drug trafficking, and how more effective coordination could be achieved in the future, if political will is to be found. 

Geneva: The Global Commission, 2020. 52p.

justice, social sciencesMaddy B
Rapid changes in illegally manufactured fentanyl products and prices in the United States

By Beau Kilmer | Bryce Pardo | Toyya A. Pujol | Jonathan P. Caulkins

Background and aims: Synthetic opioids, mostly illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF), were mentioned in 60% of United States (US) drug overdose deaths in 2020, with dramatic variation across states that mirrors variation in IMF supply. However, little is known about IMF markets in the United States and how they are changing. Researchers have previously used data from undercover cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine purchases and seizures to examine how their use and related harms respond to changes in price and availability. This analysis used US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data to address two questions: (i) “To what extent does IMF supply vary over time and geography?” and (ii) “What has happened to the purity-adjusted price of IMF?” Methods: We developed descriptive statistics and visualizations using data from 66 713 observations mentioning IMF and/or heroin from the DEA’s System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence (STRIDE; now STARLIMS) from 2013 to 2021. Price regressions were estimated with city-level fixed effects examining IMF-only powder observations with purity and price information at the low-to-medium wholesale level (>1 g to ≤100 g; n = 964). Results: From 2013 to 2021, the share of heroin and/or IMF observations mentioning IMF grew from near zero to more than two-thirds. The share of heroin observations also containing IMF grew from <1% to 40%. There is important geographic variation: in California, most IMF seizures involved counterfeit tablets, whereas New York and Massachusetts largely involved powder formulation. The median price per pure gram of IMF powder sold at the >10 to ≤100 g level fell by more than 50% from 2016 to 2021; regression analyses suggested an average annual decline of 17% (P < 0.001). However, this price decline appears to have been driven by observations from the Northeast. Conclusions: Since 2013, the illegally manufactured fentanyl problem in the United States has become more deadly and more diverse. 

Addiction. 2022;117:2745–2749. 

justice, social sciencesMaddy B
Prevalence of cannabis use in youths after legalization in Washington state

By Julia A Dilley, Susan M Richardson, Beau Kilmer, Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, Mary B Segawa, Magdalena Cerdá

Methods| The Washington Healthy Youth Survey (HYS) 2 is an anonymous, school-based survey of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders and the state’s primary source of information about health behavior among youths. The HYS has been implemented in the fall of even-numbered years since 2002, using a simple random sample of public schools to generate a state-representative sample. Response rates (incorporating school and student response) in 2016 were 80% for 8th grade, 69% for 10th grade, and 49% for 12th grade. The study was approved by the Washington State Institutional Review Board, whose general policy waives informed patient consent when data are de-identified. We Generated Covariate-adjusted prevalence estimates, modeling as closely as possible to Cerdá et al. Prevalence was based on modeled estimates (ie, SUDAAN predMARG [RTI International] postestimation command). Because the the MTF is not designed to provide state-representative estimates, the article generated covariate-adjusted modeled prevalence estimates for each state. The article suggested complex association between legalization and cannabis use among youths: increases in prevalence among Washington 8th and 10th graders, but not among 12th graders, relative to use in states without legalization of recreational marijuana.

The authors noted that, “the sample design may lead to discrepancies between MTF results and those found in other large-scale surveillance efforts.”1(p148) The purpose of the present study was to assess whether trends in cannabis use prevalence among youths from Washington’s state-based youth survey are consistent with findings from the MTF.

JAMA pediatrics, 173(2) 2019

justice, social sciencesMaddy B
Gender Differences in Drug Use among Individuals Under Arrest

By Bridget E. Weller,  Stephen Magura,  Dawn R. Smith, Matthew M. Saxton, Piyadarsha Amaratunga

  Background: Drug monitoring by drug testing of individuals under arrest provides an opportunity to detect drug use patterns within geographic areas. However, women have been omitted from large-scale monitoring efforts in criminal justice populations. The purpose of this study was to examine whether gender differences exist in drug use indicated by oral fluid collected in one U.S. jail. Methods: The study analyzed data collected in 2019-2020 from individuals under arrest (N = 191). Twenty-four percent of the sample identified as female. Oral fluid specimens were collected and then analyzed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry. Logit regression models examined gender differences. Results: Women were more likely to test positive for methamphetamines than men (41% versus 22%, OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.21-0.84). Significant gender differences were not found for other substances (marijuana, cocaine, and opioids), legality of drugs, or overall drug use. Conclusions: Because the National Institute on Drug Abuse aims to promote health equity, future drug monitoring in criminal justice populations should employ sampling approaches representing both women and men. This research would identify possible gender-based patterns of drug use and inform gender-based policies and clinical practices to prevent and treat drug misuse.

J Subst Use. 2023 ; 28(4): 541–544. 

justice, social sciencesMaddy B
Implementing and Enforcing EU Criminal Law: Theory and Practice

Edited by Ivan Sammut, Jelena Agranovska

This book is the result of an academic project, funded by the Hercules Programme of the European Commission to study legislation dealing with crimes against the Financial Interest of the EU awarded to the Department of  European and Comparative Law within the Faculty of Laws of the University of Malta. The study deals with the notion of criminal law at the European Union level as well as the relationship between the EU legal order and the national legal order. The focus of the study is on the development of EU criminal legislation aimed at protecting the financial interests of the EU, with a focus on cybercrime, fraud and public spending. It starts with the current legal basis in the TFEU, followed by the development of EU legislation in the area as well as the legislation of relevant bodies, such as EPO, OLAF and EUROPOL. The study tackles how this legislation is being received by the national legal orders, whereby eleven EU Member States are selected based on size, geography and legal systems. These Member States are France, Ireland, Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Italy, Malta, Spain, Latvia, Greece and Poland. A comparative study is made between those sections of EU criminal law dealing with the financial interests of the EU in these Member States to analyse the current legislation and propose future developments. The study, which is led by the editors based at the University of Malta, examines the subject from a European perspective. Besides the European perspective, the  study focuses on national case-studies, followed by a comparative analysis.

The Hague: Eleven International Publishing, 2020. 340p.

Measuring cybercrime in Europe: The role of crime statistics and victimisation surveys. Proceedings of a conference organized by the Council of Europe with the support of the European Union

Edited by Marcelo F. Aebi, Stefano Caneppele, Lorena Molnar 

Cybercrime has become part of everyday life. We live in hybrid societies, fluctuating between the material and the virtual world, and we are hence confronted with online, offline and hybrid offences. However, the few victimisation surveys conducted in Europe reveal that victims of online crimes seldom report them to the police. Consequently, cybercrimes – which according to the best estimates represent between one third and more than half of all attempted and completed crimes in Europe – seldom appear in national criminal statistics. The State seems powerless to prevent them and private security companies flourish. 

During two days, experts from all over the continent gathered together in the framework of a virtual conference organized by the Council of Europe and the European Union to discuss what we know, what we do not know, and what we could do to improve our knowledge of crime in our contemporary hybrid societies, develop evidence-based criminal policies, provide assistance to crime victims, and implement realistic programs in the field of crime prevention and offender treatment. This book presents their experiences, reflexions, and proposals.

The Hague: Eleven International Publishing, 2022. 154p.

Overdose mortality incidence and supervised consumption services in Toronto, Canada: an ecological study and spatial analysis

By Indhu Rammohan, Tommi Gaines, Ayden Scheim, Ahmed Bayoumi, Dan Werb

Supervised consumption services (SCS) prevent overdose deaths onsite; however, less is known about their effect on population-level overdose mortality. We aimed to characterise overdose mortality in Toronto, ON, Canada, and to establish the spatial association between SCS locations and overdose mortality events.

Canada, Lancet Public Health. 2024, 9pg

The Future of Fentanyl and Other Synthetic Opioids

By Bryce Pardo, Jirka Taylor, Jonathan P. Caulkins, Beau Kilmer, Peter Reuter, Bradley D. Stein 

  The U.S. opioid crisis worsened dramatically with the arrival of synthetic opioids, such as fentanyl, which are now responsible for tens of thousands of deaths annually. This crisis is far-reaching and even with prompt, targeted responses, many of the problems will persist for decades to come. RAND Corporation researchers have completed numerous opioid-related projects and have more underway for such clients and grantors as the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the Assistant Secretary of Health and Human Services for Planning and Evaluation, the National Institute on Drug Abuse, the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, and Pew Charitable Trusts. Researchers have advanced an understanding of the dimensions of the problem, some of the causes and consequences, and the effectiveness of different responses. However, no one has yet addressed the full scope of the problems associated with opioid use disorder and overdose deaths. Beginning in late 2018, the RAND Corporation initiated a comprehensive effort to understand the problem and responses to help reverse the tide of the opioid crisis. The project involves dozens of RAND experts in a variety of areas, including drug policy, substance use treatment, health care, public health, criminal justice, child welfare and other social services, education, and employment. In this work, we intend to describe the entire opioid ecosystem, identifying the components of the system and how they interact; establish concepts of success and metrics to gauge progress; and construct a simulation model of large parts of the ecosystem to permit an evaluation of the full effects  of policy responses. We dedicated project resources and communications expertise to ensure that our products and dissemination activities are optimized for reaching our primary intended audiences: policymakers and other critical decision-makers and influencers, including those in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors. The project is ambitious in scope and will not be the last word on the subject, but by tackling the crisis in a comprehensive fashion, it promises to offer a unique and broad perspective in terms of the way the nation understands and responds to this urgent national problem. Ten years ago, few would have predicted that illicitly manufactured synthetic opioids from overseas would sweep through parts of Appalachia, New England, and the Midwest. As drug markets are flooded by fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, policymakers, researchers, and the public are trying to understand what to make of it and how to respond. The synthesis of heroin in the late 19th century displaced morphine and forever changed the opiate landscape, and we might again be standing at the precipice of a new era. Cheap, accessible, and mass-produced synthetic opioids could very well displace heroin, generating important and hard-to-predict consequences. As part of RAND’s project to stem the tide of the opioid crisis, this mixed-methods report offers a systematic assessment of the past, present, and possible futures of fentanyl and other synthetic opioids found in illicit drug markets in the United States. This research is rooted in secondary data analysis, literature and document reviews, international case studies, and key informant interviews. Our goal is to provide local, state, and national decision-makers who are concerned about rising overdose trends with insights that might improve their understanding of and responses to this problem. We also hope to provide new information to other researchers, media sources, and the public, who are contributing to these critical policy discussions  

Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2019. 265p.

The use of penalty notices for first time drink- and drug-driving offences in NSW

By Neil Donnelly and Sara Rahman

AIM To understand whether the introduction of penalty notices in New South Wales (NSW) for first time low, special and novice range drink-driving and drug-driving offences reduced the number of court appearances and increased the certainty of licence sanctions for these offences. METHOD Data was obtained from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for all first time low, special and novice range exceed the prescribed concentration of alcohol (PCA) incidents and first time drug-driving incidents occurring between 5 December 2016 to 1 March 2020. We used a combination of interrupted time series analysis, and descriptive analysis respectively to determine the changes in CANs and dismissals post-reform. We used logistic regression to identify significant correlates of receiving a penalty notice among the first time PCA and drug-driving offenders in our sample. RESULTS The introduction of penalty notices significantly reduced the number of CANs issued for first time low, special and novice range PCA offences by 81.0%, or 4,779 fewer CANs than predicted. For first time drug-driving there was a significant, though smaller (29.8%) reduction in CANs (or 1,118 fewer CANs issued). These changes also translated into decreases in court dismissals and conditional discharges. Among first time low, special and novice range PCA offenders, the percentage receiving a court dismissal or conditional discharge decreased from 51.5% to 8.0% while among first time drug-driving offenders it decreased from 28.0% to 15.2%. Among both first time low, special and novice range PCA offenders and drug-driving offenders, having no concurrent offences and no prior proceedings to court in the previous 5 years predicted receipt of a penalty notice. The smaller reduction in court appearances for drug-driving was primarily due to those charged with this offence having more concurrent and prior offences. CONCLUSION The introduction of penalty notices significantly reduced the number of court appearances for first time low, special and novice range PCA offences and to a lesser extent, first time drug-driving offences, and decreased the percentage of offenders who received a court dismissal or conditional discharge for these offences.  
Crime and Justice Bulletin No. CJB262
Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research, 2023. 22p.

justice, social sciencesMaddy B
Evaluation of Family Drug and Alcohol Courts

By Kostas Papaioannou, Tien-Li Kuo, Sashka Dimova, Andi Fugard, Sarah Sharrock, Ellie Roberts, Felicity Kersting, Tina Haux, Terry Ng-Knight
Family Drug and Alcohol Courts (FDACs) offer an alternative to standard care proceedings involving parental drug or alcohol misuse, using a “problem-solving” approach to justice to support parents to reduce their misuse issues. The primary aim is to improve outcomes for children and families, ensuring that children can either live safely with parents at the end of care proceedings or, where reunification (defined as the legal order given for the child to return to live with the primary carer) is not possible, have the best chance for permanency and stability outside the family home. FDACs also aim to reduce the risk of families re-entering care proceedings at a later date. Previous research on the FDAC approach to care proceedings showed some promising results. Harwin et al.’s (2011) independent evaluation found that FDAC care proceedings are more likely than standard care proceedings to help parents stop misusing alcohol and substances and be reunified with their children. The follow-up evidence indicated that the achieved positive outcomes were sustained over time (Harwin et al., 2014; Harwin et al., 2016). There are, however, a number of limitations in the existing evidence on FDAC’s effectiveness. Most of the evidence comes from the Harwin et al.’s (2011, 2014, 2016) evaluation that ran from 2008 and 2012, prior to the introduction of the Children and Families Act 2014,1 which significantly altered how standard care proceedings operate (CJI, 2021). Their evaluation focused only on the London FDAC, the first to be set up. As FDAC has since been rolled out more widely to include 15 specialist FDAC teams, working in 22 courts and serving families in 36 local authorities, it is important to understand and assess whether the promising findings from London are observed in other areas of England. This evaluation was commissioned to assess and understand the impact of FDAC using a counterfactual group, and to assess how FDAC has been implemented to date in England. The evaluation was commissioned by WWCSC and was part of the Department for Education’s Supporting Families: Investing in Practice programme.

London: Foundations, 2023. 137p.

social sciences, justiceMaddy B
Potential impact of eliminating illicit trade in cigarettes: a demand-side perspective 

By Mark Goodchild , Jeremias Paul, Roberto Iglesias, Annerie Bouw, Anne-Marie Perucic

Background The Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (the Protocol) entered into force in September 2018, and commits Parties to implement a package of measures to combat this global problem. The aim of this study is to assess the potential impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes on consumption, use and tax revenues. Methods We identified 36 countries where an independent (non-industry sponsored) study of the illicit cigarette market was available. We developed a conceptual framework for describing how the elimination of illicit cigarettes might impact on demand (consumption and use) and applied this framework to our sample of countries to assess the impact of eliminating illicit cigarettes across different settings. Findings Illicit cigarettes account on average for 11.2% of the market in these 36 countries. The elimination of illicit cigarettes would reduce total cigarette consumption by 1.9% across these countries. The decrease in ’group A’ countries—where illicit cigarettes are >15% of the market—would average 4.1%. The smoking rate would decrease by 1.0% in relative terms including by 2.2% in group A countries. Tax revenues from the legal sale of cigarettes would increase by 11.2% including by 25.1% in group A countries. Conclusions The illicit cigarette market reflects a complex interplay between supply and demand, with an array of different country conditions. Regardless of the situation, our study highlights the contribution that the elimination of illicit trade can make to tobacco control through demand reduction while at the same time generating significant tax revenues. 

Switzerland: World Health Organization, 2020, 8p.

De-Linking Tobacco Taxation and Illicit Trade in Africa

By Max Gallien

Africa has become a growth market for the tobacco industry, as people in the global North have started to smoke much less. The prevalence of smoking in Europe since the 1990s has dropped by one-third, and even further in the Americas (44%). Over the same period, smoking levels in Africa have increased by over 50% (Reitsma et al. 2017).1 Africa’s youth, in particular, is overrepresented among new smokers (N. Ramanandraibe and A.E. Ouma 2011; Blecher and Ross 2013). This is part of a wider shift in tobacco consumption from richer to poorer countries – it has been projected that 6.8 million of a global total of 8.3 million tobacco-related deaths will occur in low- and middle-income countries by 2030 (Mathers and Loncar 2006). Africa is not only facing rising health care costs connected to tobacco consumption, but also the loss of lives, particularly men, as a consequence of smoking-related diseases.

Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies, Summary Brief Number 22, 2020. 8p.

No Smoking Gun: Tobacco Taxation and Smuggling in Sierra Leone

By Max Gallien , Giovanni Occhiali

Objective: To evaluate the common industry claim that higher tobacco taxation leads to higher levels of smuggling, particularly in a limited state capacity setting. Design:This paper evaluates the effects of a tobacco tax increase in Sierra Leone on smuggling by using gap analyses. Its models are based on multiple rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey and customs data as well as newly collected data on cigarette prices. Results: The paper shows that despite a substantial increase in cigarette taxation, and despite the absence of other formal tobacco control policies, smuggling has not increased in Sierra Leone. Its primary model shows a decrease in cigarette smuggling by 16.74% following the tax increase, alongside a decrease in cigarette consumption more widely and an increase in tax revenue. Conclusions: By presenting a low income and lower enforcement capacity case study, this paper provides novel and critical evidence to the debate on the tax smuggling link. Furthermore, it points to new questions on how states in these contexts can limit cigarette smuggling.

Published Online First: Tobacco Control, 02 June 2022, DOI:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2021-057163

Channeling Contraband: How States Shape International Smuggling Routes

By Max Gallien and Florian Weigand

Although  smuggling is  commonly  assumed to happen  in remote and difficult-to-access borderlands, in reality, smuggling is most prevalent in areas that states tightly control, including formal border crossings. To understand this puzzle, this article explores the relationship between states and smugglers at international borders. Based on extensive empirical research in various borderlands in North Africa and Southeast Asia, it argues that different kinds of smugglers prefer different types of relationships with the state. The article outlines six ideal types of such relationships. It contends that these types of relationships are the dominant factor in how different smuggling networks choose routes along a border. The findings have implications for our understanding of smuggling and policies that aim at addressing smuggling, especially regarding the effects of border fortifications and corruption prevention. bordFor over 400 kilometers, the border between Tunisia and Libya stretches across deserts, lakes, and mountains. The border provides a source of income for one of the largest smuggling economies in North Africa, with trading in everything from gasoline, fabrics, and electronics to cigarettes and narcotics. Its length and terrain make the border difficult to control for both Tunisian and Libyan security forces, and offer plenty of opportunities for the thousands of smugglers who cross the border everyday to stay undetected or leverage their superior knowledge of the terrain in high-speed car chases with soldiers and customs officers. And yet, most of these smugglers have chosen two particular points in the border to conduct their business: the formal border crossings as Ras Jedir and Dhiba. In fact, differ-ent smuggling networks prefer different routes: while those trading in mobile phones, bananas, or alcohol have typically preferred to play cat and Mouse.

SECURITY STUDIES, 2021, VOL. 30, NO. 1, 79–106

Darknet drug traders: A qualitative exploration of the career trajectories and perceptions of risk and reward of online drug vendors

By Rasmus Munksgaard and James Martin 

  A growing share of drug distribution takes place through cryptomarkets—illicit online drug markets which supply the lower levels of the drug trade. Though the economy at large is well understood and the motivations and demographics of buyers as well, the population of drug sellers has received less scrutiny. In this study we address this research gap through the largest qualitative study of cryptomarket vendors to date. We find that sellers begin their careers in varying ways, some moving their business online, others moving into cryptomarket distribution from buying, reselling or supplying friends or from other cybercrimes. We further observe that economic and non-economic motivations frequently overlap, and that strategies for managing risk vary extensively. We conclude with a discussion of our findings from a policy perspective, focusing on the implications for policing drug markets and health policies.  

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology 2020. 44p.

social sciencesMaddy B
Detection of anabolic-androgenic steroids in e-cigarettes seized from prisons: A case study

By Richard L. Harries, Caitlyn Norman, Robert Reid, Niamh Nic Daeid, Lorna A. Nisbet

The administration of new psychoactive substances (NPS), in particular synthetic cannabinoid receptor agonists (SCRAs), via e-cigarettes, within prison settings has been well publicized. This study provides an overview of five e-cigarette case samples seized from Scottish prisons between May 2022 and July 2023 where the anabolic-androgenic steroids (AASs) mestanolone and oxandrolone were identified following gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses. These e-cigarette samples represented 2.9% of all samples containing e-cigarette cartridges (n = 170) and 9.4% of all samples found to contain AASs (n = 53) seized during the same time period. The AASs were detected in combination with other drugs, including cocaine, Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (Δ9-THC), SCRAs and nicotine. This represents a new and novel route of administration for AASs.

Forensic Science International, (2024)

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