By Tena Prelec

In recent years, concerns have grown regarding information manipulation, particularly in relation to the disinformation tactics employed by authoritarian regimes. Our research delves into the intriguing, lesser-explored realm of organised crime (OC) groups' involvement in shaping information landscapes. Drawing from Nicholas Barnes' 'political criminality' concept, we investigate how OC crime groups manipulate information in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (Transnistria), and Albania.

We explore the impact of evolving technology on OC groups' narrative-shaping abilities, their media ownership, and their role in the global political economy of offshore finance. This research offers a deeper understanding of the threats associated with information manipulation by non-state actors. It also presents an analytical framework for future studies. Dive into the full report to uncover the hidden facets of this intriguing topic in today's world.

SOC ACE Research Paper 22. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham, 2023. 44p.

By Liam O’Shea, Gonzalo Saiz & Alexia Anna Hack (RUSI); and Olivia Allison (Independent).

The research highlights the correlation between a third country’s support for or opposition to sanctions and the extent of its geopolitical alignment with senders or targets. It finds that SEA is more likely when a third country is economically reliant on the target country, has interests in engaging in SEA and has the trade and commercial capacities to do so – particularly in professional advisory, financial services, shipping and logistics sectors. In these cases, there is likely to be a significant role for a range of private commercial actors within these sectors with economic interests in engaging in SEA. This suggests that policymakers combatting SEA should prioritise economies reliant on these sectors and promote improved sector regulation and enforcement measures.

More broadly, the research suggests that focusing on the role of third countries in SEA by industry sector, rather than just by country, may help to identify more tailored countermeasures. This approach, and the specific nuances and features of particular types of SEA, enables more focused follow-on analysis and potentially more targeted policy responses.

The report examines thirteen third countries (Armenia, Cyprus, Czechia, Georgia, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malta, Saudi Arabia, Serbia, South Africa, Spain, Türkiye and the UAE), involved in SEA relating to sanctions imposed on Russia since the Ukraine invasion. It draws from literature, data analysis of media reports, blogs, forums and other open-source information as well as trade and shipping data, spanning from February 2022 to February 2023.

Sanctions are an important tool for exerting influence internationally yet understanding of the impact of sanctions evasion or avoidance (SEA) and third-country involvement remains limited. In this study, third countries are defined as distinct from ‘senders’ and ‘targets’ of sanctions regimes and aims to shed light on their role in SEA.

SOC ACE Research Paper No 21. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham, 2023. 35p.

By: Dr Erica Marat (NDU) and Dr Alexander Kupatadze (KCL).

This paper examines the practices used to evade sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, focusing on the import–export operations of Russia, Belarus, Georgia, and Kazakhstan. The research finds that sanctions have not cut supplies to Russia but have instead empowered informal trade networks and intermediaries. Georgia and Kazakhstan have indirectly benefited from the increased transiting trade; however, the impact on the shadow economy and traditional organised crime has been minimal because sanctions-busting is not illegal in these countries. In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, a conspicuous surge in trade anomalies and import- and export-related red flags has been observed. In many instances, these irregularities can be definitively attributed to strategies employed to circumvent sanctions. The Western focus has been on restricting the re-exports of sanctioned goods to undermine Russia’s military apparatus. However, third-party states, such as Georgia and Kazakhstan, play a significant role in enabling Russia to sustain its international trade activities, yielding substantial financial gains for the country’s military expenditure.

Our research underscores the complexity and challenges of enforcing international sanctions and preventing sanctions evasion. It shows that the sanctions have not been as effective as hoped in cutting off Russia from the global economy, and that Russia has been able to find ways to circumvent them. The paper highlights the need for more concerted efforts and cooperation among Western states, private companies based in the West, and third-party states, to mitigate and prevent sanctions-busting activities.

Future research could expand to include more countries and examine the broader implications of sanctions. It could also examine the extent to which organized crime, such as cybercrime and trade-based money laundering, are linked to sanctions evasion. This research would build on the recommendations of this paper by developing more specific strategies for detecting and preventing sanctions evasion, including the use of new technologies and data analysis techniques.

Research Paper No. 18 University of Birmingham. 2023. 47p.

By David Lewis and Tena Prelec

This paper provides an analytical overview of how Russian actors and proxies are using illicit financial flows (IFF) to support Russian foreign policy goals. It shows how Russia has used illicit finance to fund political interference campaigns, promote disinformation, and support military operations outside Russia, including the international activities of the Wagner network.

IFF includes a wide range of illicit and illegal cross-border financial activities, including high-level corruption, money-laundering, and sanctions evasion. Illicit finance played a significant role in Russian foreign policy pre-2022 invasion of Ukraine. Subsequent international sanctions against Russia have further amplified Moscow's reliance on illicit business and financial practices.

Russia has become increasingly reliant on IFF in three important areas:

• First, IFF facilitates sanctions evasion and is central to Russia’s efforts to source weapons and dual-use technology.

• Second, IFF is used to fund political interference and information operations globally, with an increasing trend towards activities in the Global South.

• Third, IFF supports Russia's involvement in armed conflicts, through the funding of paramilitary forces such as Wagner and commercial deals that accompany Russian military activities in the Middle East and in Africa.

Unless effectively countered, Russia's growing use of illicit financial and economic tools will give it an advantage in its war against Ukraine. The Wagner network demonstrates how illicit financial networks can support military proxies in ways that pose a serious threat to international security.

An effective response to illicit finance requires a holistic approach, combining effective sanctions with systematic efforts to tackle money-laundering and illicit finance in key financial and logistical hubs, including in the UK and other Western countries.

SOC ACE Research Paper No 17. University of Birmingham. 2022. 43p.

By Maria Nizzero

The imposition of sanctions against the ‘oligarchs’ following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a policy conversation about the potential to move ‘from freeze to seize’: achieving permanent confiscation of assets that are currently temporarily frozen under sanctions. Acting against the oligarchs’ assets represents a way for the UK government to both reaffirm its intention to support Ukraine, and to show that the UK is no longer a haven for the proceeds of patronage, bribery or corruption. However, the UK’s asset recovery mechanisms have previously fallen short when dealing with the challenges related to seizing such proceeds, such as the difficult nature of investigating alleged historical criminality and corruption at the root of the wealth, the vast resources available to those who to manage to hide their assets and, if needed, to prove their licit origin, and the provenance of wealth in uncooperative jurisdictions. In addition, while the intention to move ‘from freeze to seize’ is high on the government’s agenda and has been reflected in several parliamentary debates and the Economic Crime Bill presented in September 2022, there are concerns that such political interest and pressure to act quickly should, however, come with proposals that do not undermine the UK’s status as a rule-of-law jurisdiction and a supporter of fundamental human rights. This paper explores alternative asset recovery mechanisms that could help respond to the immediate policy goal surrounding Russian-linked sanctioned assets and contribute to strengthening the broader asset recovery framework in the UK for the longer term. It sets out the current challenges related to confiscation of proceeds of grand corruption and explores the limitations of UK civil recovery mechanisms when seeking to tackle such proceeds. Given these challenges, the research looks at examples of three alternative mechanisms across four jurisdictions – Australia, Switzerland, Ireland and Italy – weighing their potential and limitations in relation to issues such as a lower standard of proof or reversed burden of proof, as well as reframing around ‘societal danger’, and their legal applicability in UK legislation. With these factors and the broader findings of the research in mind, this paper concludes with a set of recommendations for UK policymakers, which apply equally to the global debate, when thinking about reforming the country’s asset recovery mechanisms. While it does not intend to categorically push for one model to be adopted over others, as developing legislative mechanisms to facilitate the permanent confiscation of kleptocratic proceeds is a challenge that goes well beyond the UK,1 the paper suggests considering amendments to the current asset recovery mechanisms that take account of the social damage and national security interests affected by criminals, and kleptocrats in particular. This is a key gap in UK legislation, and these concepts need to both be included in asset recovery legislation and have full buy-in from the government and law enforcement. Alongside this, some adjustments to existing legislation to include certain elements, such as a full reverse burden of proof and, most importantly, appropriate resourcing of law enforcement, will improve the odds of recovering proceeds of crime in the UK.

SOC ACE Research Paper No. 16. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham.2023. 35p.

By Cathy Haenlein, Sasha Erskine, Elijah Glantz and Tom Keatinge

Sanctions are increasingly being used to tackle a range of specific issues. These include sanctions that respond to human rights abuses, combat corruption and address malicious cyber activity. As sanctions use has broadened, the question of their application to organised criminal activity is increasingly raised; yet the use of sanctions for this reason has remained limited to a specific set of issuers, notably the US, and more recently, the UN. In the UK, the government has advanced its vision of an ambitious post-Brexit independent sanctions regime, with the Sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering Act 2018 allowing sanctions use ‘in the interests of national security’ (HMG, 2018). New regimes addressing human rights and corruption have emerged. With serious and organised crime deemed a national security threat by the UK government, there is a case to add a sanctions regime to address this particular threat (HMG, 2018). The National Crime Agency itself has called for a legislative amendment to reference serious and organised crime as grounds for sanctions use (HMG, 2021). However, little research or evaluation has been undertaken to assess the impact of sanctions on organised crime. With US sanctions used over almost three decades to disrupt cross-border trafficking, the lack of a body of rigorous relevant research is a key shortcoming. Similarly, few past initiatives have sought to assess the lessons these experiences hold for future sanctions issuers in this space. With interest mounting in the potential use of organised crime-related sanctions, this represents a critical limitation. In seeking to address the gap, this paper reviews existing evidence on the use and impact of sanctions to disrupt organised criminal activity. It focuses on two case studies, Colombia and Libya, in differing regions of the world and with different exposure to organised crime-focused sanctions. While Colombia tops the list of states globally for organised crime-focused sanctions on individuals and entities in its territory (with the third-highest number of relevant listings since 2016), Libya’s exposure is more recent and limited. Libya nonetheless has experience of listings under UN and US country regimes relating to fuel smuggling, people smuggling and human trafficking. Here, it differs markedly from Colombia, which is the epitome of the historic US approach to narcotics-related sanctions. This paper analyses organised crime-related sanctions data, examines the current state of knowledge relating to the implementation and impact of these sanctions, and draws on the tw wo case studies. It identifies a number of factors that influence the effectiveness of organised crime-focused sanctions, including:

• The extent to which the host government of the sanction’s target is willing to cooperate with the sanction’s issuer.

• The extent to which the issuance of sanctions is embedded within a coherent broader strategic approach.

• The overarching focus of the regime within which relevant designations are made.

• The need for clear objectives when applying sanctions.

• Resourcing and engagement of key agencies in both the country of issuance and the target’s host country.

• Divergent levels of vulnerability of key actors across the related illicit trade chain. With these factors and the broader findings of the research in mind, this paper concludes with a set of ten considerations for those countries that may, in the future, consider introducing organized crime-focused sanctions.

SOC ACE Research Paper No. 1. Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham. . 2022. 51p.

Edited by: Melissa Demian

The introduction of village courts in Papua New Guinea in 1975 was an ambitious experiment in providing semi-formal legal access to the country’s overwhelmingly rural population. Nearly 50 years later, the enthusiastic adoption of these courts has had a number of ramifications, some of them unanticipated. Arguably, the village courts have developed and are working exactly as they were supposed to do, adapted by local communities to modes and styles consistent with their own dispute management sensibilities. But with little in the way of state oversight or support, most village courts have become, of necessity, nearly autonomous.

Village courts have also become the blueprint for other modes of dispute management. They overlap with other sources of authority, so the line between what does and does not constitute a ‘court’ is now indistinct in many parts of the country. Rather than casting this issue as a problem for legal development, the contributors to Grassroots Law in Papua New Guinea ask how, under conditions of state withdrawal, people seek to retain an understanding of law that holds out some promise of either keeping the attention of the state or reproducing the state’s authority.

Canberra: ANU Press, 2023. 210p.

By Michael McLaggan

Prominent throughout the world, illicit financial flows (IFFs) not only undermine the ability of states to collect revenue, but they also pose challenges to governance and the rule of law and provide avenues for the funding of further illicit activity. Although a global occurrence, IFFs may manifest differently at the regional level, making a uniform approach difficult. This calls for a model that is more inclusive of different types of flows than traditional understandings of IFFs, which tend to focus on financial flows within the formal system. In regions such as East and southern Africa, where informality is much higher than in the developed nations of the ‘global north’, the greater focus on formal systems does not find the same degree of applicability. This is not to downplay the necessity of observing and countering formal financial flows of an illicit nature but rather to emphasise the need to pay greater attention to informal and trade flows, which are prolific in less developed regions. This paper draws on extensive research by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) – in particular, the Observatory of Illicit Economies in East and Southern Africa – in addition to research by other international organisations, to analyse whether the ‘IFFs pyramid’ proposed by the GI-TOC (Reitano, 2022) is applicable to and useful for researchers seeking to understanding illicit financial flows in various settings around the world but especially in regions where greater levels of informality exists, such as East and southern Africa. The paper finds that the pervasive informality of markets in the East and southern African region, and their abuse by criminal actors, means that greater attention to IFFs is necessary in this sphere. Common also is the use of illicitly acquired, or otherwise illicitly traded commodities, in barter (that is, goods for goods) markets. Identified as particularly relevant is the pernicious influence of state-embedded actors, who often play substantial roles in the facilitation of IFFs and act as obstacles to policies to address them. Furthermore, vested interests of criminal actors in keeping certain industries and markets informal serve as barriers to formalisation and highlight the greater need to pay attention to informal financial flows especially. The due consideration to trade and informal flows is what makes the IFFs pyramid a useful model for understanding these flows in both global and regional settings. At the very least, the pyramid model highlights the need for holistic approaches and policy reform when considering IFFs in less developed regions.  

Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham. 2024, 33pg

By Prem Mahadevan, Maria Khoruk, Alla Mohammad Mohmandzai and Ruggero Scaturro

How will the new Taliban regime change Afghanistan’s illicit drug landscape in the coming years? Are the Taliban genuinely committed to combating the flow of narcotics within and outside Afghanistan, as signalled by the ban on opium cultivation issued by the Taliban leadership in April 2022?

Based on field research coordinated by the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) in the Afghan provinces of Helmand and Nangarhar, this paper analyses the changes to the Afghan drug economy since the Taliban’s return to power on 15 August 2021, documenting the adaptation of local actors engaged in the opium economy to the events that had a profound impact on their lives. Historical analysis supplements the field research findings and aids our understanding of the shifting conditions of the illicit drug economy in Afghanistan. Given the institutional weakness of Afghan statehood after nearly five decades of civil war, the GI-TOC’s approach represents a collation of provincial and district-level assessments rather than a comprehensive country-wide assessment.

This research paper outlines the complexities of local conditions and reveals a regime fragmented among varied interests and power structures, seeking to reconcile the profitability of the drugs trade with the strive for legitimacy.

University of Birmingham, Research Paper No. 27. 2023, 31pg

By Atanas Rusev, et al.

Organized property crime is considered to be a significant criminal market affecting virtually all members states of the European Union. Organized property crime is reportedly being committed by highly mobile organized crime groups (MOCG). These groups have been engaging in various forms of property crime, such as motor vehicle theft throughout Europe. At European level, ongoing initiatives are supporting member states in the fight against organized property crime. Nonetheless, to date still little is known on the logistical processes of motor vehicle theft across EU member states and in Europe as a whole. Within this context, this project aims at enhancing the knowledge of organized property crime in the form of motor vehicle crime, which includes motor vehicle theft and the sale of stolen vehicle parts.

Vehicle Crime Barrier, 2023, 46p.

By: Atanas Rusev, Tihomir Bezlov, Flamma Terenghi

Organized property crime is a pervasive issue across all EU Member States, demanding immediate and collective action. V-BAR specifically targets one aspect of organized property crime: motor vehicle crime, encompassing theft and the illicit trade of stolen vehicle parts. Despite a decline in vehicle theft, the overall prevalence of motor vehicle crime remains alarmingly high. This comprehensive report outlines V-BAR’s objectives in enhancing operational cooperation between EU law enforcement authorities and private partners to combat the menace posed by mobile organized crime groups involved in vehicle theft. Additionally, the report delves into an extensive investigation of motor vehicle theft trends within six EU countries, namely Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, France, and The Netherlands, providing valuable insights for combating this form of criminal activity.

CrimRxiv. https://doi.org/10.21428/cb6ab371.af77f1d4 2023.

By Organization of American States , Department against Transnational Organized Crime

The illegal gold trade is a growing and significant challenge in Ecuador. The spread of illegal gold mining activity has brought surges of violence and instability to remote areas while attracting organized crime, at the local and international level, and triggering an increase in money laundering and contraband. Concern regarding the disruptive and harmful impact of illegal gold mining, as well as the government’s desire to develop and expand Ecuador’s mining sector away from its reliance on small-scale and artisanal operations, have also led to a renewed focus on the challenges posed by illegal mining. There is reason to believe that the illegal gold trade and its associated criminal networks are less entrenched and developed in Ecuador than in neighboring Peru and Colombia. However, there are significant challenges facing the government as it works to combat illegal mining activity, which is increasingly accelerated by illicit cross-border contraband flows and unique vulnerabilities to money laundering activity.

Washington, DC: OAS, 2021. 46p.

By Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade (TRACIT)

The Philippines, with its strategic location in the heart of Southeast Asia and its dynamic economy, is one of the fastest-growing economies in Southeast Asia, and a leader in the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN). However, the country’s position as a vital maritime gateway in the region, coupled with its robust economic activities, has rendered it susceptible to a spectrum of illicit practices. From counterfeit goods flooding local markets to the underground movement of smuggled products, the illegal wildlife trade, and the intricate networks of money laundering, the Philippines faces significant challenges in its ongoing battle against these illicit activities

New York: The Transnational Alliance to Combat Illicit Trade (TRACIT), 2023. 48p.

By Tena Prelec

Information manipulation has been a growing concern in recent years, particularly in relation to the disinformation tactics employed by authoritarian regimes. However, the role of non-state actors, such as organized crime (OC) groups, in information manipulation has been largely overlooked. This research aims to fill this gap by examining the various ways in which OC groups manipulate information to achieve their objectives and those of actors connected to them. Drawing on Nicholas Barnes’ concept of ‘political criminality’ (2017), this study examines the varying degrees of proximity between criminal actors and the state, which is essential in exploring the complex interplay between OC and information manipulation. Empirical data was collected from several geographies, with a particular focus on Eastern Europe and the post-Soviet space, including Ukraine, Russia, Moldova (Transnistria), and Albania. The research highlights several dimensions of interest, including: the changing opportunities that technology gives to OC groups to shape facts and narratives; media ownership by organised crime groups and criminal actors; and the ways in which this interplay is situated within the global political economy of offshore finance – including the wider networks of enablers these actors rely on. By shedding light on these aspects, the research seeks to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the threat posed by the misuse of information, situates it within the literatures on non-state actors and transnational kleptocracy, and puts forward a framework for analysis that can be tested in future work.

Birmingham, UK: SOC ACE Research Paper 22. University of Birmingham 2023. 44p,

By Alex Papadovassilakis, et al

El Salvador’s gangs are in disarray.

For decades, the Mara Salvatrucha (MS13) and two factions of the 18th Street (Barrio 18) dominated the small Central American nation’s criminal landscape. The gangs embedded themselves in poor communities, terrorizing urban dwellers with extortion and murders. Successive governments tried and failed to dismantle the gangs with aggressive security policies, known as mano dura (iron fist).

In March 2022, the government of El Salvador President Nayib Bukele enacted a state of emergency (régimen de excepción) in response to a brutal gang massacre that left 87 dead. Buoyed by emergency powers, security forces tore through the gangs, arresting tens of thousands of suspected gang members and collaborators. Those who escaped arrest went underground or into exile. In a flash, the MS13 and Barrio 18 all but vanished from the streets of El Salvador.

But though battered and bruised, a surprising number of gang members remain at large. The country’s prisons, once incubators for the gangs, have never been so full.

This six-part investigation looks at how the Bukele government’s crackdown succeeded in overpowering the MS13 and Barrio 18. We assess what remains of the gangs in El Salvador, and contemplate whether these structures could one day return or mutate.

Washington, DC; Medellin, Columbia: InSight Crime, 2023.56p.

By: Bryan Avelar, Juan José Martínez

Moskitia is dying. And it is organized crime that is killing it.

First came the drugs, as traffickers turned the region’s coasts and forests into a cocaine corridor. Then came the traffickers themselves, financing invaders that are clear-cutting thousands of hectares of forest and fencing off vast tracts of land with barbed wire and armed guards.

The region’s Indigenous Miskito people have been left trapped in desperate poverty, and are caught between the traffickers and an indifferent state. But some are now preparing to fight back.

Washington, DC, Columbia: InSight Crime, 2023. 64p..

By Jenni Irish-Qhobosheane

Our new report focuses on the pervasive issue of copper theft in South Africa. This socio-economic challenge has severe consequences on the country's already strained infrastructure, affecting the capacity and operations of state-owned entities and municipalities.

Our 2022 South Africa Strategic Organized Crime Risk Assessment revealed that the nation's critical infrastructure is 'at a tipping point after years of chronic mismanagement and rampant theft,' noting the role of copper theft as an exacerbating factor. In light of this alarming situation, our latest report delves into the repercussions of copper theft on South Africa's infrastructure and its links to organized crime networks.

This comprehensive study examines the value chain and market dynamics for stolen copper, a familiar yet often overlooked area where criminal enterprises have become deeply entrenched. With a focus on solutions, the report outlines measures taken to combat copper theft and explores possible future strategies for addressing this growing concern.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, 2023. 60p.

By Lyes Tagziria and Lucia Bird Ruiz Benitez de Lugo

West Africa is one of the world’s most vibrant and diverse regions; home to over 400 million people, around 1 200 languages and many different religious and ethnic identities. The region’s economic growth since the turn of the century has been impressive, resulting in a significant reduction in absolute levels of poverty. Nevertheless, with rampant insecurity at the hands of violent extremists, armed groups and criminal bandits, political instability, limited economic opportunities for the region’s burgeoning youth population and the worsening impact of climate change, West Africa faces many complex challenges.

With over 20 000 conflict fatalities across the region in 2022 alone, violence in West Africa, especially in the Sahel region, is at unprecedented levels. According to the ACLED Conflict Severity Index, three countries in West Africa – Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria – have extreme or high levels of conflict. Illicit economies play an important role in sustaining instability across the region.

The security and well-being of citizens across the ECOWAS region is affected not only by violent conflict, but by myriad, interwoven factors from economic prosperity to political representation, justice and security, social cohesion, freedom and much more. In this context the concept of human security, as opposed to the narrower concept of state security, has increasingly become the focus of policymakers across West Africa.

As set out in the ECOWAS Country Risk and Vulnerability Assessments (CRVAs), ‘the human security framework provides a holistic approach to understanding different threats that affect individuals’ lives, whether this is through conflict, health, food, environment, or other social, political or economic factors’.

A key component of this human-centric approach to security, focused on reducing harm to the people of West Africa, is prevention. This requires comprehensive, accurate and timely data on existing and future threats and is therefore one of the main rationales behind the work of the ECOWAS Commission, through both the Early Warning Directorate and the ENACT Organized Crime Index. While the objectives of the index are manifold, its principal aim is to build an evidence base to underpin responses to organized crime.

The 2021 ENACT Organized Crime Index identified the West Africa region as having the second-highest level of criminality on the African continent, with human trafficking, drugs and the illicit trade in non-renewable resources forming the most prevalent criminal markets. The region placed in second once again in the latest iteration of the index, the 2023 Global Organized Crime Index.

In 2023, West Africa overtook Southern Africa as the region with the highest resilience score on the continent, pointing to comparatively high levels of resilience even in areas affected by significant criminal markets. The index highlighted legislative frameworks, civil society actors and the region’s international collaboration in the fight against organized crime as relative regional strengths. Overall levels of resilience, however, both objectively and within the global context, are weak.

The index’s findings provides a statistical underpinning for the relationship between illicit markets, security and stability, demonstrating a strong negative correlation between criminality and peacefulness. In other words, the less peaceful a country, the more likely it is to be afflicted by high levels of organized crime. In other words, the less peaceful a country, the more likely it is to be afflicted by high levels of organized crime. Responding to illicit economies which pose a threat to these goals must be a central element of programming. In line with this, the Organized Crime Resilience Framework (OCRF) examines the major organized-crime threats facing the West African region, as identified by the index and the CRVAs published by the ECOWAS Early Warning Directorate.

While the index is devoted to organized crime, the CRVAs focus on conflict and human security more broadly. Drawing on both these datasets engenders a conflict-sensitive and human-security-focused assessment of organized crime in West Africa, encompassing threats and vulnerabilities, as well as potential sources of resilience.

Geneva, SWIT: Global Initiative Against International Organized Crime, Ecowas Commission, 2023.

By Marina Caparini

This SIPRI Report examines how organized crime is intertwined with armed conflict and hybrid governance systems in three states that currently host United Nations stabilization missions. It surveys the conflict/crime/governance nexus in the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and Mali, and how UN stabilization missions, in particular the UN Police, have engaged with the challenge of organized crime.

The report argues that improving how UN stabilization interventions engage with organized crime will require a frank assessment of the significance of organized crime in systems of governance and patronage, of the role of organized crime as a driver and enabler of armed conflict by non-state armed groups, and of the involvement of state-embedded actors in illicit markets. The complex links between conflict and governance actors and organized crime in the settings examined raise fundamental questions about the assumptions underlying peace operations. The report concludes with a set of recommendations on how to move to more realistic analyses and bases for peace operations.

Solna: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2022. 57p.

By Mark Freeman and Barney Afako

Co-authored by Mark Freeman and Barney Afako, the publication offers simplified technical guidance directed to any good-faith promoter of formal negotiation with one or more violent criminal groups when the proposed endgame of the negotiation is to reduce or end the criminal violence in question. In doing so, the paper draws on key ideas developed in IFIT’s ground-breaking report, Negotiating with Violent Criminal Groups: Lessons and Guidelines from Global Practice (Freeman & Velbab-Brown, 2021), which covers the most diverse set of negotiations with criminal groups ever examined in one place.

The first part of Freeman and Afako's practice note examines threshold questions a good-faith promoter would be wise to consider before outwardly exploring or proposing any negotiation involving a criminal group; the second part discusses internal and external actions a good-faith promoter ought to contemplate as part of any initial phase of formal engagement or negotiation with members of a criminal group.

Barcelona: Institute for Integrated Transitions (IFIT) , 2024. 3p.