By Gergely Hideg
KEY FINDINGS: Between 2010 and the end of the 2014–15 phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war, lethal criminal violence in Ukraine increased by nearly 50 percent. This raises the possibility of an even steeper future increase in violent crime resulting from the current full-scale war.
In spite of the increasing crime victimization rate of households since the 2022 invasion, incidents involving firearms remain less common compared to the pre-invasion period. Nonetheless, trust in the police—while still high—has declined since winter 2022–23, and approximately 14 percent of Ukrainian civilians now carry some form of typically non-lethal weapon for self-defense, which is more than a twofold increase from 2019 and more than a threefold increase from 2011.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine initially led to a slight decrease in firearms kept in households as civilians and weapons were mobilized for the war effort. As of summer 2023, household ownership levels have gone back up, but the number of firearms held by these households has decreased by approximately 20 percent since the start of the full-scale war.
Survey respondents believe that the acquisition of firearms has become more straightforward than in winter 2022–23, although it still presents much greater challenges than in 2019. Acquiring ammunition appears to be more difficult than acquiring firearms.
Between 43 and 46 percent of men in every age group indicated that they either already own a firearm (7 percent overall) or would like to own one. Only 11 percent of women expressed the desire to own a firearm.
The survey indicated that more women than men expressed negative views about firearms: they have less desire to own a firearm, they are less likely to think they are necessary, and not many would feel safer if their household had a firearm. Nonetheless, many respondents, among them women, thought women ‘in their area’ expected their husbands to be able to use a firearm.
Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2023. 9p.
