By Ivan Katchanovski

This open-access book provides a comprehensive analysis of the Maidan massacre in Ukraine. It uses a theoretical framework of rational choice, moral hazard, state-repression backfire, and Weberian ideas about rational action to explore the massacre. The book draws on publicly available videos, photos, and audio recordings of the massacre in English, Ukrainian, Russian, Polish, and other languages, along with several hundred individual testimonies and revelations from the Ukrainian investigation and a trial and its verdict. By examining which parties were responsible for the massacre, the book analyses its implications for not only Russia’s war on Ukraine but also political developments across the globe.

Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2024. 266p.

By Gergely Hideg

The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 percent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period. • During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.  About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered. • The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 percent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally— compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 11p. 

By Eva Veldhuizen Ochodničanová, Alicia Heys

Despite the link between conflict and human trafficking having been globally recognized, academic inquiry investigating how the two interact continues to be limited. Given the recency of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in February 2022, this lack of literature is even more pronounced in understanding how the risks of trafficking are developing in the current context. This paper examines extant academic literature to explore what is already known about the relationship between conflict and human trafficking, situating this within the theoretical framework of routine activity theory (RAT). It analyses governmental and non-governmental organization reports emerging from Ukraine to contextualize the risk that is specific to those affected by the war. The paper identifies four key drivers of risk facing those in, or fleeing, Ukraine, which can heighten their vulnerability to human trafficking, before offering a novel and innovative typology of the ways that human trafficking can manifest as a result of conflict. The typology gives consideration to the direct and indirect links between conflict and trafficking, the geographical spaces in which trafficking can occur, and the specific forms that exploitation can take. By situating the paper within RAT and contextualizing it with evidence from the war in Ukraine, the findings of this paper provide both theoretical and empirical insights that help to expand existing knowledge on how conflict situations can increase the risk of THB.

  Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(2): pp. 26–41.2024   

By Gergely Hideg

KEY FINDINGS: Between 2010 and the end of the 2014–15 phase of the Russo-Ukrainian war, lethal criminal violence in Ukraine increased by nearly 50 percent. This raises the possibility of an even steeper future increase in violent crime resulting from the current full-scale war.

In spite of the increasing crime victimization rate of households since the 2022 invasion, incidents involving firearms remain less common compared to the pre-invasion period. Nonetheless, trust in the police—while still high—has declined since winter 2022–23, and approximately 14 percent of Ukrainian civilians now carry some form of typically non-lethal weapon for self-defense, which is more than a twofold increase from 2019 and more than a threefold increase from 2011.

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine initially led to a slight decrease in firearms kept in households as civilians and weapons were mobilized for the war effort. As of summer 2023, household ownership levels have gone back up, but the number of firearms held by these households has decreased by approximately 20 percent since the start of the full-scale war.

Survey respondents believe that the acquisition of firearms has become more straightforward than in winter 2022–23, although it still presents much greater challenges than in 2019. Acquiring ammunition appears to be more difficult than acquiring firearms.

Between 43 and 46 percent of men in every age group indicated that they either already own a firearm (7 percent overall) or would like to own one. Only 11 percent of women expressed the desire to own a firearm.

The survey indicated that more women than men expressed negative views about firearms: they have less desire to own a firearm, they are less likely to think they are necessary, and not many would feel safer if their household had a firearm. Nonetheless, many respondents, among them women, thought women ‘in their area’ expected their husbands to be able to use a firearm.

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2023. 9p.

By Matt Schroeder and Olena Shumska

Making the Rounds: Illicit Ammunition in Ukraine finds that thousands of hand grenades, rockets, mortar rounds, landmines, and tins of firearms cartridges have proliferated throughout Ukraine, including to areas located far from the conflict zone in the east. Presenting findings from a comprehensive review of imagery and information on illicit ammunition trafficked to, from, and within Ukraine, the report includes an analysis of markings on more than 1,600 seized hand grenades, shoulder-fired rockets, ammunition tins, and anti-personnel landmines. The report reveals the types and sources of illicit ammunition in the country, as well as the modes of transport and smuggling techniques used by Ukrainian arms traffickers and their co-conspirators abroad. The analysis shows that the overwhelming majority of the 1,600 items analyzed were Soviet-designed models produced in Eastern European and Soviet factories prior to the dissolution of the USSR. Curbing the threat to local and regional security posed by this ammunition requires a long-term, coordinated effort by Ukrainian authorities and the international community.

Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2021. 68p.