By Brittni Lambing, Ron Frandsen, Jennifer Karberg, and Joseph Durso

The Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act (Brady Act) requires a background check on an applicant for a firearm purchase from a dealer who is a Federal Firearms Licensee (FFL). During the permanent Brady Act period, from 1999 through 2018, background checks were conducted on over 237 million applicants for firearm transfers or permits. During this period, nearly 3.5 million applications for firearm transfers or permits were denied by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) or by state and local agencies. This report summarizes the number of applications for firearm transfers and permits, denials that resulted from background checks, reasons for denial, rates of denial, appeals of denials, and arrests of denied persons during the permanent Brady Act period. Statistics are presented at the FBI, state, and local levels. The report also provides a summary of significant changes in federal and state laws and regulations related to firearm sales. Statistical highlights are presented in the body of the report, and complete details are included in an appendix.

St. Louis, MO: Regional Justice Information Service (REJIS), 2024. 29p.

By Kerry Mulligan and Daniela Gilbert

 Vera’s Redefining Public Safety initiative works with local governments and community leaders to build community-centered and coordinated approaches to creating safety. This includes expanding non-police response to 911 crisis calls, investing in civilian-led approaches to violence prevention and intervention, and building and institutionalizing public safety infrastructures outside the criminal legal system. To be sustainable and effective, these infrasctructures should adopt a public health framework, leverage data-informed decision-making, and focus on community-centered strategies. Gun violence problem analysis (GVPA) can be an important component of this work. Traditionally, GVPA refers to the analysis of data on fatal and non-fatal shootings to establish a common understanding of local violence dynamics and inform the development and implementation of violence reduction strategies.1 Although there is variability in the scope and process of GVPA, it generally involves identifying the characteristics of, and relationships between, people involved in recent fatal and non-fatal shootings. People involved in shootings are, by definition, at greatest risk of future interpersonal violence and gun violence. Therefore, jurisdictions generally use GVPA to inform near-term violence intervention strategies— including group violence intervention strategies, focused deterrence, and fellowship/mentorship programs that focus on people at highest risk of violence.2 This concept paper proposes an expanded version of GVPA that can inform the system changes and strategies necessary for more comprehensive and sustained improvements in public safety. Like a traditional GVPA, this expanded approach analyzes data to guide the development. Expanded gun violence problem analysis can help develop interventions to reduce gender-based violence and violence associated with economic and housing insecurity, inform prevention and system transformation, and prioritize capacity building for sustainability. of community violence reduction strategies. However, unlike traditional GVPA, the expanded approach also illuminates the social-structural factors that drive violence, such as economic and housing insecurity. While traditional GVPA is designed to inform strategies for near-term community violence intervention, this expanded approach can help develop longer-term strategies to support violence prevention efforts. These include strategies to improve access to economic opportunity, housing, and healthcare. It also prioritizes comprehensive strategy development and capacity-building for sustainability.  

New York: Vera Institute of Justice, 2024. 4p.

By Vaughn Crandall, et al.

A study on the factors behind rising gun violence in the Bay Area & our recommended approach for tackling it. Three primary factors are contributing to the Bay Area’s gun violence challenge: the impact of gentrification, a poorly understood regional violence problem, and a lack of formal mechanisms to support regional coordination across public safety departments and service providers. Cities can effectively reduce this violence in the near term. To do so, we recommend that regional leaders: 1. Develop a Regional Intervention Strategy by identifying a convener who can incubate a regional community violence intervention approach. 2. Formalize Communication and Information Sharing Between Oakland & San Francisco Public Safety Providers by having each department systematically share information. 3. Improve Cross-City Coordination to understand and address cross-city violence issues. 4. Utilize Existing Infrastructure by leveraging the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center. 5. Monitor California Highway Patrol Capacity to ensure they can investigate freeway homicides and shootings. 1 2 In recent years, there has been a sustained increase in shootings and gun homicides - with an increase in highway shootings in particular - in the Bay Area. This has implications for the cities of Oakland, Stockton, San Francisco, and Antioch. However, there has been little public study conducted to-date into these increases. This report analyzes the Bay Area’s regional violence dynamics from a variety of data sources to provide crucial information about the factors behind this growing public safety concern. Using this data, it provides recommendations to regional leaders on how best to tackle this issue and improve public safety in the near-term. PURPOSE OF THE REPORT:  In recent years, there has been a sustained increase in shootings and gun homicides - with an increase in highway shootings in particular - in the Bay Area. This has implications for the cities of Oakland, Stockton, San Francisco, and Antioch. However, there has been little public study conducted to-date into these increases. This report analyzes the Bay Area’s regional violence dynamics from a variety of data sources to provide crucial information about the factors behind this growing public safety concern. Using this data, it provides recommendations to regional leaders on how best to tackle this issue and improve public safety in the near-term 

Oakland, CA: California Partnership for Safe Communities, 2023. 13p.

 By Vaughn Crandall, et al.

Bakersfield is a large and rapidly growing city in the Central Valley that has an exceptionally high need for effective violence intervention and prevention strategies. This is supported by crime and violence data; health, social and economic indicators. Gun violence in particular is a serious, long-term problem in Bakersfield, with rates double of those of the state and national overall. In many neighborhoods, a homicide or non-fatal injury shooting takes place almost every day and has a significant negative impact on community health and wellbeing. Based on homicide records from 2014-2019, as well as the problem analysis undertaken as part of this project, high risk social networks (gangs, crews, high risk street groups, etc.) appear to play a major role in community violence. The risk of violence; poor health, educational and economic indicators; and strengthening community-police relations have been real concerns in Bakersfield for many years. While Bakersfield has a higher poverty rate than many California cities; it has a somewhat lower overall violent crime rate but a particular problem with gun and gang violence. The State of California’s CALVIP Grant program presented a much-needed opportunity to take on this difficult challenge in a more comprehensive and evidence-informed way. This opportunity allowed Bakersfield city and community leaders to analyze the dynamics of violence in Bakersfield, and the needs of young people at highest risk of involvement in violence, so they could more effectively intervene and break the cycle of violence. Bakersfield’s CalVIP-funded GVRS strategy combines concepts from several evidence-informed strategies: the group violence reduction strategy (also known as focussed deterrence) is a primary framework, with elements of police-community trust building (through procedural justice) and significant investment in building community violence intervention (CVI) capacity. Focussed deterrence is supported by a significant body of research evidence; while community violence intervention and procedural justice are also supported by growing research evidence (Abt 2017, Braga 2018, Buggs 2022). This combined strategy seeks to reduce violence citywide while providing support and opportunities for community members at highest risk of violence. Together, the city and community partners also work to strengthen community-police relations with residents and neighborhoods who are directly impacted by violence

Oakland, CA: California Partnership for Safe Communities, 2023. 11p.

By Vaughn Crandall, Reygan Cunningham, and Robin Campbell

Gun violence inflicts a grim toll on our nation. Every single day, 120 Americans are killed with guns and more than 200 are shot and wounded. Gun violence is the leading cause of death of children and teens in the U.S. Homicide is the leading cause of death for Black men under 44 and the second leading cause of death for Latino men. Both African American and Latinx communities are impacted by gun violence at rates that far exceed those of white communities. The economic consequences have been calculated to exceed $550 billion annually. Gun violence inflicts a grim toll on our nation. Every single day, 120 Americans are killed with guns and more than 200 are shot and wounded. Gun violence is the leading cause of death of children and teens in the U.S.1 Homicide is the leading cause of death for Black men under 44 and the second leading cause of death for Latino men.23 Both African American and Latinx communities are impacted by gun violence at rates that far exceed those of white communities.4 The economic consequences have been calculated to exceed $550 billion annually.5 California’s 2023 passage of the Gun Violence Prevention and School Safety Act, colloquially referred to as AB 28, represents the first time that a US state resolved to tax the gun industry in order to fund programs that would address community gun violence. By imposing a modest 11% excise tax on gun sellers and manufacturers, this historic policy will channel nearly $160 million per year to a range of programs supported by the state’s Gun Violence Prevention and School Safety Fund. The largest share of this funding, $75 million, is for the California Violence Intervention and Prevention (CalVIP) grant program, focused on community violence intervention, an increasingly effective field of public safety work that engages people who are most likely to be victims or perpetrators of gun violence to reduce their risk of harm. AB 28 was an audacious idea. It was also a longshot for California, because the state requires a two-thirds majority on any legislation that would increase taxes. This report is an overview of how a diverse coalition of advocates, local practitioners, and policy organizations (The CalVIP Coalition) conceived of, and passed, transformative legislation to establish community violence intervention (CVI) as a permanent part of the state’s public safety infrastructure, including a permanent and dedicated source of public funding. A case study for others interested in pursuing similar strategies, this report concludes with a summary of key elements that contributed to this landmark initiative’s success.  

Oakland, CA: California Partnership for Safe Communities, 2024. 18p.

By Mitchell L Doucette, Julie A Ward, Alex D McCourt, Daniel Webster, Cassandra K Crifasi

About 1,000 civilians are killed every year by a law enforcement officer in the USA, more than 90% by firearms. Most civilians who are shot are armed with firearms. Higher rates of officer involved shootings (OIS) are positively associated with state-level firearm ownership. Laws relaxing restrictions on civilians carrying concealed firearms (CCW) have been associated with increased violent crime. This study examines associations between CCW laws and OIS. We accessed counts of fatal and nonfatal OIS from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) from 2014–2020 and calculated rates using population estimates. We conducted legal research to identify passage years of CCW laws. We used augmented synthetic control models with fixed effects to estimate the effect of Permitless CCW law adoption on OIS over fourteen biannual semesters. We calculated an inverse variance weighted average of the overall effect. On average, Permitless CCW adopting states saw a 12.9% increase in the OIS victimization rate or an additional 4 OIS victimizations per year, compared to what would have happened had law  adoption not occurred. Lax laws regulating civilian carrying of concealed firearms were associated with higher incidence of OIS. The increase in concealed gun carrying frequency associated with these laws may influence the perceived threat of danger faced by law enforcement. This could contribute to higher rates of OIS. 

J Urban Health (2022) 99:373 384

By Mitchell L. Doucette, Alexander D. McCourt, Cassandra K. Crifasi, and Daniel W. Webster

The United States faces rapidly rising rates of violent crime committed with firearms. In this study, we sought to estimate the impact of changes to laws that regulate the concealed carrying of weapons (concealed-carry weapons (CCW) laws) on violent crimes committed with a firearm.We used augmented synthetic control models and random-effects meta-analysis to estimate state-specific effects andtheaverageeffectofadoptingshall-issue CCW permitting laws on rates of 6 violent crimes: homicide with a gun, homicide by other means, aggravated assault with a gun, aggravated assault with a knife, robbery with a gun, and robbery with a knife. The average effects were stratified according to the presence or absence of several shall-issue permit provisions. Adoption of a shall-issue CCW law was associated with a 9.5% increase in rates of assault with a firearm during the first 10 years after law adoption and was associated with an 8.8% increase in rates of homicide by other means. When shall-issue laws allowed violent misdemeanants to acquire CCW permits, the laws were associated with higher rates of gun assaults. It is likely that adoption of shall-issue CCW laws has increased rates of nonfatal violent crime committed with firearms. Harmful effects of shall-issue laws are most clear when provisions intended to reduce risks associated with civilian gun-carrying are absent. 

American Journal of Epidemiology 192(3) 2023.   

By Cassandra K. Crifasi, Julie Ward, Alex D. McCourt,  Daniel Webster & Mitchell L. Doucette 

 Background

Fatal and nonfatal shootings by police are a public health issue that warrants additional research. Prior research has documented associations between fatal shootings by police and gun ownership, legislative strength scores, and lax concealed carry weapons laws. Despite research on other firearm-related outcomes, little is known about the impact of permit-to-purchase (PTP) laws on shootings by police. We generated counts of fatal and nonfatal OIS from the Gun Violence Archive from 2015 to 2020. We conducted cross-sectional regression modeling with a Poisson distribution and robust standard errors. In addition to PTP, we included several state-level policies that may be associated with shootings by police: comprehensive background check only (CBC-only) laws, concealed carry licensing laws, stand your ground laws, violent misdemeanor prohibitions, and extreme risk protection orders (ERPO). We controlled for state-level demographic characteristics and included a population offset to generate incidence rate ratios (IRR).

Findings

PTP laws were associated with a 28% lower rate in shootings by police [IRR = 0.72, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64–0.81]. Shall Issue (IRR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.17–1.53) and Permitless (IRR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.35–1.91) concealed carry laws and CBC-only laws (IRR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.01–1.25) were associated with higher rates of shootings by police. Stand your ground, violent misdemeanor prohibitions, and ERPO laws were not associated with shootings by police.

Conclusions

Our study found that PTP laws were associated with significantly lower rates of shootings by police. Removing restrictions on civilian concealed carry was associated with significantly higher rates. State-level firearm policies may be a lever to address shootings by police.

Injury Epidemiology,  10, 28 (2023).

By Alysson Gatens

Illinois’ firearm restraining orders, known in other states as “red flag laws” or “extreme risk protection orders,” are civil orders that temporarily remove firearms from individuals who are a potential danger to themselves or others. These laws aim to prevent firearm injury through a removal of means from persons experiencing a temporary crisis. Data suggest firearm restraining orders have been infrequently employed in Illinois since the law’s enactment in 2019. Nationally, initial research suggests that these types of laws are associated with reductions in firearm suicide. However, national findings have not conclusively shown a significant reduction in firearm assaults attributable to these laws. As the majority of these laws have been passed relatively recently, more research is needed as data become available on their usage and outcomes.

Chicago: Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority, 2022. 14p.

By Stefan Schaufelbühl , Nicolas Florquin , Denis Werner , Olivier Delémont

3D-printed firearms, an emerging category of privately made firearms (PMF) produced beyond government control, have become increasingly prevalent due to technological advancements. They are now emerging as a cost-effective and reliable alternative to conventional firearms. Raised to public awareness following the 2013 release of the 3D-printed Liberator, these firearms are now more commonly encountered by police forces. This article analyses various reports involving 3D-printed firearms, reflecting the increasing encounters by law enforcement agencies. It examines 186 cases involving 3D-printed firearms, primarily from North America, Europe, and Oceania, highlighting a significant rise in incidents since 2021. These incidents include seizures, illicit uses, and online sales, with the firearms typically being hybrid models, Parts Kit Completions/Conversions (PKC), or firearm components such as auto sears. The study underscores the use of affordable equipment and materials for production, emphasizing the accessibility and potential risks of these firearms.

Forensic Sci Int Synerg. 2024 Mar 28:8:100464.

By Yulia Yarina and Nicolas Florquin

Dangerous Devices: Privately Made Firearms in the Caribbean—a new Situation Update by the Small Arms Survey and its partners CARICOM IMPACS, CARPHA, and GA-CDRC at the University of the West Indies—examines the latest trends and developments regarding PMFs, their production and circulation in the Caribbean region, and calls for more in-depth data collection on these types of weapons to help tackle this threat to security and public health. The Situation Update was launched at the side event ‘A Public Health Crisis: Small Arms Trafficking and Violence in the Caribbean,’ held on 18 June 2024 on the margins of the Fourth Review Conference of the UN Programme of Action on Small Arms. KEY FINDINGS • While privately made firearms (PMFs) represent a small proportion of all firearm seizures in the Caribbean region, the threat appears to be growing as police are recovering a range of different types of PMFs. • Significant seizures of partially finished frames and computer numerical control (CNC)-milled receivers used to assemble firearms have been recorded since April 2023. • The first reported seizure of 3D-printed firearms in the region occurred in August 2023. Seizures of 3D-printed firearms and components have taken place in at least three countries since, also leading to the dismantlement of workshops and recovery of 3D printers. • Seizures of so-called ‘conversion devices’ in several countries underscore the particular threat they pose to public health in the region, given that they can be used to convert semi-automatic pistols and rifles to fully automatic weapons, thus increasing the risk of multiple injuries. • Few seized PMFs are identified as such in the publicly available reports examined by the Survey, which suggests that efforts are needed to improve the detection, identification, and monitoring of these weapons. • Death certificates and other public health records currently do not always capture detailed information about the types of firearms used in shootings, including whether they might have been PMFs.   

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 24p

By Gergely Hideg

The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 percent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period. • During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.  About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered. • The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 percent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally— compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 11p. 

By Julien Joly and Aline Shaban

The sources of illicit small arms in West Africa are multiple and evolving, and not limited to the diversion of international transfers. In terms of local sources, the unlicensed artisanal production of firearms has been a recurrent challenge for member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To support governments in addressing this challenge, the Survey conducted a general assessment of artisanal arms production in the ECOWAS region and the main regulatory approaches adopted by states to address their proliferation. This paper aims to stimulate discussion and the exchange of information on good practices among stakeholders to counter the proliferation and illicit use of small arms in West Africa. Key findings - Craft firearm production has deep cultural and economic roots in West Africa and serves different societal needs— and different uses—than industrial firearm production. Demand for craft-produced weapons is dependent on local dynamics. Craft firearms are no longer exclusively rudimentary items. In some instances, their sophistication is comparable to industrially made weapons equipped with automatic and semi-automatic mechanisms. The current regulatory framework for firearm production in West Africa, mandated by the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons, Their Ammunition and Other Related Materials, does not distinguish between industrial and craft production, contributing to poor enforcement by the authorities, as well as low awareness and regulation avoidance among craft producers. In addition, the legal provisions often fail to take into account the firing mechanism, which is essential for determining a firearm’s lethality and type of use. Despite the unclear regulatory environment, artisanal producers in West Africa have shown a willingness to professionalize and regularize their work. If national authorities can refine legislative frameworks to reflect actual craft production practices and products, this willingness could serve as a basis for improved cooperation, record-keeping, and marking practices that closely resemble factory-made firearms. Today, craft weapons in the region range from rudimentary hunting weapons to sophisticated copies of self-loading rifles (Assanvo, 2017; Nowak and Gsell, 2018, p. 3). In light of this, craft firearms can offer criminals, insurgent groups, and private citizens a viable alternative to industrial weapons (Hays and Jenzen-Jones, 2018, p. 36). Due to the clandestine—and lucrative—nature of their production, however, regulating the sector presents considerable challenges. Although the ECOWAS Convention provides a basis for the control of local firearm production in West Africa, it does not determine whether the manufacture of craft firearms should be considered separately or together with the manufacture of indus trial weapons. In practice, most national legislation suggests that legal provisions relating to licensing, marking, and record-keeping apply to all manufacturers indiscriminately. Nevertheless, due to technical and financial limitations, craft producers often fail to comply with these provisions, and may be pushed further into the covert side of the arms trade. With a view to informing artisanal firearms control policy, this Briefing Paper provides an overview of craft production dynamics in West Africa and explores the different approaches taken by ECOWAS member states to regulate their production

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2023. 16p.

By Jacob D. Charles

In popular and professional discourse, debate about the right to keep and bear arms most often revolves around the Second Amendment. But that narrow reference ignores a vast and expansive nonconstitutional legal regime privileging guns and their owners. This collection of non constitutional gun rights confers broad powers and immunities on gun owners that go far beyond those required by the Constitution, like rights to bring guns on private property against an owner’s wishes and to carry a concealed firearm in public with no training or background check. This Article catalogues this set of expansive laws and critically assesses them. Unlike the formal constitutional guarantee, this broad collection is not solely libertarian, concerned only with guaranteeing noninterference with a negative right. Instead, it is also aggressively interventionist, countermanding contrary policy judgments by employers, universities, property owners, and local government officials, conferring robust rights and privileges, and shifting the distribution of violence in society. This Article underscores the rhetorical and legal connection between this gun rights expansionism and the formal Second Amendment guarantee. These laws do not derive from a judicial interpretation of the scope of the Constitution, but they are expressed and advocated for in constitutional terms. The Article also highlights how broad gun rights can create unique harm to the body politic and to marginalized groups by fostering fear and mistrust and empowering sometimes-problematic private actors to proactively police their own communities. Finally, the Article shows how gun-rights expansionism influences constitutional doctrine in the context of the Second Amendment, as well as of the First, Fourth, and Fourteenth Amendments.  

 Michigan Law Review Volume 120 Issue 4 2022  

By : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

* Suicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes U03, X60–X84, and Y87.0. Firearm-involved suicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes X72–X74.† Homicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes U01–U02, X85–Y09, and Y87.1. Firearm-involved homicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes U01.4 and X93–X95.

Top

In 2022, among persons aged ≥10 years, the percentage of suicide deaths involving a firearm was lowest among persons aged 25–44 years (47.4%) and highest among persons aged ≥65 years (70.6%). The percentage of homicide deaths that involved a firearm was highest among persons aged 10–24 years and then decreased with age, from 92.2% among those aged 10–24 years to 44.5% among those aged ≥65 years.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024;73:828. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7337a3

By Jennifer L. Behrens & Joseph Blocher

At a time when Second Amendment doctrine has taken a strongly historical turn and gun rights advocates have increasingly argued that gun regulation itself is historically racist, it is especially important that historical claims about race and guns be taken seriously and vetted appropriately. In this short article, we evaluate the often-repeated claim that the nickname “Saturday Night Special” derives from the phrase “[n___er]-town Saturday night.” Based on a review of newspapers, legislative debates, dictionaries, slang compendiums, and other sources, we find no historical support for this claim. It apparently appeared for the first time, unsourced, in a 1976 article and has been repeated in dozens of briefs and scholarly sources since. Advocates and scholars should stop invoking this unsupported origin story, which if anything serves as a cautionary example of how citations can cascade. The most plausible origin of the nickname as it related to cheap firearms stemmed from the turn of the century when the phrase “Saturday night special” was already in common usage with connotations of cheapness and convenience. 

108 Minnesota Law Review Headnotes 283 (2024) 

By Patrick Sharkey , Megan Kang

Background: The recent rise of gun violence may lead to the perception that the problem of gun mortality in the United States is intractable. This article provides evidence to counter this perception by bringing attention to the period spanning from 1991 to 2016 when most US states implemented more restrictive gun laws. Over this period, the United States experienced a decline in household gun ownership, and gun-related deaths fell sharply.

Methods: The main analysis examines the conditional association between the change in gun regulations at the state level and the change in gun mortality from 1991 to 2016. We include a range of robustness checks and two instrumental variable analyses to allow for stronger causal inferences.

Results: We find strong, consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that restrictive state gun policies reduce overall gun deaths, homicides committed with a gun, and suicides committed with a gun. Each additional restrictive gun regulation a given state passed from 1991 to 2016 was associated with -0.21 (95% confidence interval = -0.33, -0.08) gun deaths per 100,000 residents. Further, we find that specific policies, such as background checks and waiting periods for gun purchases, were associated with lower overall gun death rates, gun homicide rates, and gun suicide rates.

Conclusion: State regulations passed from 1991 to 2016 were associated with substantial reductions in gun mortality. We estimate that restrictive state gun policies passed in 40 states from 1991 to 2016 averted 4297 gun deaths in 2016 alone, or roughly 11% of the total gun deaths that year.

Epidemiology. 2023 Nov 1;34(6):786-792. 2023 Sep 26.

By Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Michelle Degli Esposti, Stephen Hargarten, Laura Vargas and Jason E. Goldstick

Background

Globally, Mexico is one of six countries with the highest level of firearm mortality. While previous studies have examined firearm mortality in Mexico before 2015, increases in violence since then highlight the need for an updated analysis. In this study, we examined changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and described these deaths by key demographic groups, incident location, and state of occurrence. Data came from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a federal agency that collects and reports national population data. We used descriptive statistics to analyze rates, proportions, and percentage changes in firearm mortality, and we displayed temporal trends using time plots and special trends using maps.

Results

Firearm deaths increased in Mexico from 2015 to 2018 but slightly decreased from 2018 to 2022. Homicides presented the highest increase and the highest proportion of firearm-related deaths from 2015 to 2022. Victims were primarily males but rates among women increased at a higher proportion (99.5% vs 53.5%). One third of victims were 20–29y but rates among children and adolescents (10–9y) increased at a higher proportion. Most firearm-related deaths occurred in streets or public spaces but the percentage of incidents occurring in households have increased. State-level rates and percentage changes varied significantly. States with higher rates of firearm mortality coincide with those involving conflict among organized criminal organizations.

Conclusion

Firearm mortality in Mexico is a major public health burden. The epidemiology of firearm-related deaths in Mexico varies by intent, demographics, location, and states. To mitigate this challenge, multiple solutions are required.

Introduction

Previous studies have documented increases in firearm mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2015 (Dare et al. 2019). Reports from nonprofit organizations and news outlets indicate further increases since 2015, (particularly firearm homicides associated with organized crime) (Calderon et al. 2020), but comprehensive characterization of those trends is lacking. Organized criminal groups continue to operate in Mexico and roughly 213 k firearms are trafficked from the US every year (McDougal et al. 2014). In this regard, further increases in firearm mortality would threaten the future economy and health of Mexico (Peters et al. 2020; Aburto et al. 2016), and yet the lack of precise epidemiological information limits the ability to address this growing national problem with evidence-based programs and policies. In this analysis, we document changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and describe these deaths by key demographic groups (e.g., sex, age, and urbanicity), incident location (e.g., households or public spaces) and states where they occurred.

Methods

Data on causes of death were collected from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a national vital statistic database that has previously been used to examine firearm mortality in Mexico (Dare et al. 2019; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023a). INEGI collects annual mortality data and provides information on year of occurrence (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023b). We merged datasets from 2015 to 2022. We excluded deaths that occurred/registered before 2015 and those where year of occurrence was unknown (n = 432), as well as deaths that occurred outside of Mexico (n = 2).

In line with previous studies (Degli Esposti et al. 2023; Cunningham et al. 2018), we identified firearm deaths using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes for firearm homicide (X93–X95 and U01.4), firearm suicide (X72–X74), unintentional firearm deaths (W32–W34), and firearm deaths of undetermined intent (Y22–Y24). Firearm deaths were further disaggregated by sex and age group (< 10y; 10–19y; 20–29y; 30–39; 40–49y; 50–59y; 60–69y; 70y+) and geographic information (urbanicity, incident location, state of occurrence). Urbanicity was defined using INEGI’s predetermined categories of urbanicity (urban and rural). Similarly, incident location was defined using INEGI’s eight predetermined categories of where deaths occurred (household, school or office, sport fields, streets or public spaces, commercial areas, industrial areas, farms/ranches, and other).

We used descriptive statistics to examine pooled 2015–2022 rates, annual rates for 2015 and 2022 separately, as well as percentage changes (in rates) from 2015 to 2022 across categories of intent, sex, age groups, and state of occurrence. To obtain rates, we used population estimates (by year, sex, age group, and state) provided by Mexico’s Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) (Consejo Nacional de Población 2024). We also examined the percentage of firearm related deaths within categories defined by urbanicity, location, intent, and demographics. We displayed these percentages for 2015, 2022, and the total pooled 2015–2022 period.

Results

We examined 188,397 firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022. Rates of firearm-related deaths increased by 88.2% from 2015 to 2018 and decreased by 16.7% from 2018 to 2022 (Fig. 1). Homicide accounted for 92.2% of firearm deaths (Table 1) during this period and experienced the highest percentage increase (62.7%) from 2015 (10.37 per 100 k) to 2022 (16.87 per 100 k). Rates of undetermined firearm-related deaths and unintentional shootings also increased during this period (Table 1), while firearm suicide decreased by 23.4% (from 0.47 per 100 k in 2015 to 0.36 per 100 k in 2022).

Injury Epidemiology; 2024

By Chelsa Kenney

Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy: 2020 identified the trafficking of firearms from the U.S. into Mexico as a threat to the safety and security of both countries. The Mexican government has estimated that 200,000 firearms are smuggled from the United States each year. GAO was asked to report on U.S. efforts to counter firearms trafficking to Mexico. This report examines (1) the extent of U.S. agencies’ knowledge about firearms trafficking to Mexico and (2) U.S. agencies’ efforts to disrupt this trafficking and the extent to which they have assessed those efforts. GAO reviewed firearms tracing data, related analysis, and program information for fiscal years 2014 through 2020. GAO also interviewed U.S. and Mexican officials. This is a public version of a sensitive report that GAO issued in December 2020. What GAO Recommends GAO is making eight recommendations, including recommending that ATF and ICE analyze additional information about the trafficking of U.S.-sourced firearms to Mexico and that ATF, ICE, CBP, and State develop performance measures to assess the results of their efforts to disrupt this trafficking. The agencies concurred with GAO’s recommendations.   

Washington, DC: United States Government Accountability Office , 2021. 56p.

By U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION OFFICE OF PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY

CBP OPR’s Investigative Operations Directorate (IOD) conducts thorough, impartial, and timely investigations into CBP use of force incidents involving death or serious bodily injury and other critical incidents. This review sought to examine the facts and circumstances surrounding this incident (including use of force by CBP personnel); evaluate whether all personnel complied with relevant rules, regulations, and laws; and determine whether any actions could be taken to improve CBP’s performance in similar situations in the future. On May 24, 2022, at 11:33:02 AM (CDT), a lone assailant, , entered Robb Elementary School through an unsecured exterior side door. Upon entering the school, the assailant quickly moved down the hallway and pulled open one of the doors to adjoining Classrooms 111 and 112, both fourth-grade classrooms full of students and their teachers. An internal doorway connected Classroom 111 and Classroom 112. By entering through either classroom door, the assailant had access to both classrooms. Upon entering the classroom, the assailant began firing a semi-automatic rifle at the children and their teachers in both classrooms. Approximately 77 minutes after the assailant entered the classroom, CBP personnel consisting of Border Patrol Agents (BPAs) assigned to the Border Patrol Tactical Unit (BORTAC), along with state and local law enforcement officials, entered the classroom and, after an exchange of gunfire, shot and killed the assailant. By the time the incident at Robb Elementary was over, the assailant had killed 19 children and 2 teachers. An additional 16 students, teachers, and law enforcement officers were wounded. A total of 188 CBP personnel, along with law enforcement officers from more than 20 other federal, state, and local agencies, responded or provided support during or following the incident. The incident created immense logistical and tactical challenges that severely tested the resources and capabilities of responding officers and agencies. OPR reached the following conclusions based on this review: Involved CBP personnel at all levels had an inconsistent understanding of their authority to respond to non-federal incidents including active shooter situations. None of the responders whom OPR interviewed could cite a specific authority for being at Robb Elementary School on May 24, 2022. The failure of arriving law enforcement personnel to establish identifiable incident management or command and control protocols led to a disorganized response to the Robb Elementary School shooting. No law enforcement official ever clearly established command at the school during the incident, leading to delays, inaction, and potentially further loss of life. CBP personnel responding to the incident did not establish a command and control framework for their own responding personnel, which resulted in responders taking on tasks on an ad-hoc basis as requested by local law enforcement or at their own initiative.

OPR determined existing CBP training on active shooter response procedures did not adequately prepare responding personnel to deal with this situation. The current training and curriculum did not include the proper application of National Incident Management System (NIMS) or Incident Command System (ICS) protocols and did not prepare them for a number of factors, including the need to address an active shooter behind a locked door. None of the first responders from state, local, or federal law enforcement agencies in a position to take action against the assailant had access to an accurate school layout or knew how to obtain the correct keys to gain access to critical areas of the school. Additionally, none of the first responders from law enforcement agencies had the necessary tools to adequately breach the outwardly opening metal doors to Classrooms 111 and 112. Only one CBP law enforcement officer who arrived on scene had access to a Halligan tool (used for forcibly opening a locked door). CBP personnel established a medical triage area in the hallway of the west building and provided lifesaving care for multiple victims. However, the overall chaotic response caused by the lack of command and control led to the breakdown of adherence to established medical protocols for a mass-casualty incident. This led to some victims with gunshot wounds being inadvertently placed on a school bus without receiving immediate medical treatment. In the immediate aftermath of this incident, numerous investigative agencies, including the Texas Rangers and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), began to independently interview personnel and recover evidence, leading to fragmented crime scene processing and evidence collection. Text messages and other records from cellular devices used by CBP personnel during the incident were not obtained until OPR identified this deficiency and collected most of these materials months following the incident. Coordination with other investigative entities could prevent this oversight in the future. CBP lacked procedures for establishing a centralized point from which to disseminate all information pertaining to the incident. A centralized point of dissemination would have helped to ensure accurate and timely distribution of information while preserving the integrity of ongoing investigations. OPR made the following recommendations based on its review: CBP must ensure its officers, agents, and managers understand and properly work within the confines of their authority. To the extent CBP intends for its personnel to continue to respond to mass violence incidents in a non-federal setting, policy or law must be generated to ensure they have proper authority to do so. All CBP personnel tasked with responding to incidents such as the one at Robb Elementary School should be familiar with NIMS or ICS protocols. CBP should make NIMS or ICS protocols a facet of CBP’s response protocols. CBP’s active shooter training and doctrine should be revised to align with continuously emerging best practices, including lessons learned from this incident. Once the training is revised, all first responders within CBP should receive comprehensive training and the tools necessary to deal with the management of and response to active shooter events. CBP should establish procedures for following medical best practices during critical events and ensure that all CBP personnel are trained to properly assess people requiring medical care, especially because CBP personnel might arrive on scene before emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and paramedics. Responding to critical incidents can overwhelm both an organization’s and individuals’ ability to cope. The mental health needs of first responders must be addressed through comprehensive and universally established protocols. CBP should continue to invest in best practices for responding to critical incidents of all types, including mass violence events, focusing on the healing involved.

Washington, DC: U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION OFFICE OF PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY 2024. 203p.