By Europol

Europol's spotlight report on online fraud highlights that online fraud schemes represent a major crime threat in the EU and beyond as online fraudsters generate multiple billions in illicit profits every year to the detriment of individuals, companies and public institutions.
Fraud schemes are perpetrated with the intention of defrauding victims of their assets using false and deceitful pretexts, or with the use of cyberattack techniques. This results in the voluntary or involuntary transfer of personal or business information, money or goods to criminals.

From ATM attacks and account takeovers to skimming and shimming, the wide availability of crime-as-a-service has made this criminal activity more accessible. Criminals show great versatility and adaptability in adjusting their modi operandi and modelling their narratives around socio-economic trends as well as current crises, taking advantage of emergency situations to create charity scams.

This report is an accompanying module to Europol’s IOCTA, which aims at providing and understanding of modern cybercrime to equip law enforcement with the knowledge to tackle it and keep people safe. It delves into the complexities of online fraud schemes and sheds light on how different schemes overlap and victimise targets multiple times.

Key findings:

Relay attacks targeting payment card chips (shimming) are increasingly detected.

Charity scams leveraging emergency situations have increased. This was visible during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the earthquake in Türkiye and Syria.

Logical attacks on ATMs still occur in the EU, with criminal networks testing ways to exploit new vulnerabilities at the ATMs they target.

Fraudsters display sophisticated modi operandi, which are usually a combination of different types of fraud. Victims of fraud are often re-victimised within the same criminal scheme.

Social engineering techniques that fraudsters use have been growing in complexity. Criminals adapt their techniques according to the profile of the victim and the typology of fraud.

Spotlight Series Report.

The Hague: EUROPOL, 2023. 20p.

By Kirsty S Lee, Dieter Wolke, Till Bärnighausen, Lucienne Ouermi, Mamadou Bountogo, Guy Harling

Background Sexual victimisation and peer victimisation are pervasive and increase risk for mental illness. Longitudinal studies that compare their unique and cumulative effects are scarce and have been done predominantly in highincome countries. The aims of this study were to examine the prevalence, prospective associations, and gender differences in sexual and peer victimisation and mental health in a low-income, African setting. Methods In this prospective cohort study, data were obtained from the 2017 ARISE Adolescent Health Study, a population-representative, two-wave, prospective study of adolescents (aged 12–20 years) from Burkina Faso. A random sample of adolescents was drawn from ten villages, selected to capture the five main ethnic groups, and from one of the seven sectors of Nouna town, Burkina Faso, at two timepoints: Nov 12 to Dec 27, 2017, and Nov 15 to Dec 20, 2018. Standardised interviews were conducted in French or a local language by trained researchers. We measured victimisation exposure as sexual victimisation, peer victimisation, and polyvictimisation, using lifetime frequency of exposure, and we measured mental health symptoms and disorders using the Kutcher Adolescent Depression Scale, the Primary Care Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder screen IV and 5, and a question on lifetime selfharm and number of incidents in the past year. We calculated prevalence of victimisation and mental health symptoms and disorders at the two timepoints, and we used lifetime victimisation at the first timepoint to predict mental health at the second timepoint using logistic and negative binomial regressions. Gender differences were examined using interaction terms. Findings Of 2544 eligible adolescents, 1644 participated at time 1 and 1291 participated at time 2. The final sample with data at both timepoints included 1160 adolescents aged 12–20 years (mean 15·1, SE 0·2), of whom 469 (40·4%) were girls and 691 (59·6%) were boys. The majority ethnic group was Dafin (626 [39·1%]), followed by Bwaba (327 [20·5%]), Mossi (289 [16·0%]), Samo (206 [13·0%]), Peulh (166 [9·7%]), and other (30 [1·6%]). After survey weight adjustment, sexual victimisation (weighted percentages, time 1, 256 [13·8%] of 1620; time 2, 93 [7·2%] of 1264) and peer victimisation (weighted percentages, time 1, 453 [29·9%] of 1620; time 2, 272 [21·9%] of 1264) were common, whereas polyvictimisation was more rare (weighted percentages, time 1, 116 [6·6%] of 1620; time 2, 76 [5·7%] of 1264). Longitudinally, sexual victimisation was associated with probable clinical disorder (adjusted odds ratio 2·59, 95% CI 1·15–5·84), depressive symptoms (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 1·39, 95% CI 1·12–1·72), and symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (aIRR 2·34, 1·31–4·16). Peer victimisation was associated with symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (aIRR 1·89, 1·13–3·17) and polyvictimisation was associated with depressive symptoms (aIRR 1·34, 1·01–1·77). Girls reported more sexual victimisation (weighted percentages, 130 [17·3%] of 681 vs 126 [11·4%] of 939), boys reported more peer victimisation (weighted percentages, 290 [33·1%] of 939 vs 163 [25·2%] of 681), and there was a significant interaction between lifetime victimisation and gender for probable clinical disorder (F [degrees of freedom 7, sample 376] 2·16; p=0·030). Interpretation Sexual and peer victimisation were common in the study setting and increased risk for mental health problems. Adolescent girls who have been sexually victimised are especially at risk of mental health problems. Interventions targeting sexual and peer violence in low-income settings are needed.  

Lancet Psychiatry 2024; 11: 134–42

By: Ksenia Ermoshina and Francesca Musiani

Concealing for Freedom: The Making of Encryption, Secure Messaging and Digital Liberties sets out to explore one of the core battlegrounds of Internet governance: the encryption of online communications. Current debates around encryption have fundamental implications for our individual liberties and collective presence on the Internet. Encryption of communications at scale and in increasingly usable ways has become a matter of public concern, especially since Edward Snowden’s 2013 revelations. A new cryptographic imaginary is taking hold, which sees encryption as a necessary precondition for the formation of networked publics. At the same time, there have been major evolutions and accelerations in the field of secure communications, prompted in part by the cryptography community’s renewed efforts to create next-generation secure messaging protocols and applications. It is vital that we unveil the very recent, and sometimes less recent history of these protocols and their key applications. The book takes on this task, in order to show how the opportunities and constraints they provide to Internet users came about, and how both developer communities and institutions are working towards making them available for the largest possible audience. It explores how efforts towards this goal are built upon interwoven stories about technical development and architectural choices, about community-building – and about Internet governance and politics. In doing so, the book focuses on the experience of encryption in a wide variety of contemporary secure messaging protocols and tools, and looks at the implications of these endeavors for the “making of” digital liberties on the Internet. Concealing for Freedom provides two key empirical and theoretical contributions. Firstly, it enriches a social sciences-informed understanding of encryption. It does so by examining how different solutions of cryptography for secure communications are created, developed, enacted, and governed, and what this diverse experience of encryption, operating across many different sites, means for online civil liberties. Secondly, it contributes to understanding the social and political implications of particular design choices when it comes to the technical architecture of digital networks, in particular their degree of (de-)centralization. The book explores developers’ actions and their interactions with other stakeholders, for instance users, security trainers, standardising bodies, and funding organizations. It also examines their interactions with the technical artifacts they develop, in which a core common objective is to create tools that “conceal for freedom” even as how this objective is met differs according to technical architectures, the user publics being targeted and the tools’ underlying values and business models.

Manchester, UK: Mattering Press, 2022. 274p.

By Alaina De Biasi Edmund F. McGarrell Scott E. Wolfe

Historically, crime in the United States has been measured by the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system administered by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). In this system, local, county, state, Tribal and federal law enforcement agencies submit summary crime data on incidents and arrests to the UCR system. Crime patterns and trends can then be analyzed and tracked at local, state, and national levels. 

United States, Michigan Justice Statistics Center, School of Criminal Justice, Michigan State University. 2023. 33pg

By Michael Heise

Two broad trends inform public K-12 education’s current trajectory. One involves persisting (and recently increasing) school racial isolation which helps account for an array of costs borne by students, schools, and communities. A second trend, involving a dramatically increasing police presence in schools, is evidenced by a rising school resource officer (“SRO/police”) presence in schools. Increases in the magnitude of a school’s SRO/police presence correspond with increases in the school’s propensity to engage law enforcement agencies in student disciplinary matters which, in turn, help fuel a growing school-to-prison pipeline problem. While these two broad trends propel two distinct research literatures, these research literatures do not meaningfully engage with one another. Empirical research is largely silent on the degree to which, if at all, variation in a school’s racial isolation level influences how its SRO/police presence interacts with the school’s propensity to report student discipline issues to law enforcement agencies. This Article examines whether variation in school racial isolation levels informs whether a school’s SRO/police presence influences the school’s law enforcement reporting rates. Results from this study imply that any such influence is confined to schools where non-white student enrollment ranges from 11% to 50%. The research literature on tipping points provides one helpful interpretative lens to better understand why this specific school racial isolation band systematically differs from others when it comes to SRO/police presence’s influence on a school’s propensity to report student discipline matters to law enforcement agencies.

Buffalo Law Review Vol. 71, No. 2 (2023)

By Southern Poverty Law Center

Access to safe, stable housing is a human right. In the United States, however, the deprivation of this right leads to inequitable housing access. As a result, in addition to people with disabilities and members of the LGBTQ+ community, people of color — especially Black people — are more likely to experience homelessness or be at risk of homelessness. Compounding this issue, people of color and people with disabilities are also overrepresented in the criminal legal system because of mass incarceration. This intersection of housing inaccessibility and criminalization has resulted in the pernicious practice of the criminalization of people experiencing homelessness, a pressing issue across the country — including in the Deep South. In 2023, for example, Georgia enacted a law that forces cities and other localities to enforce bans on public camping, putting thousands of Georgians living unsheltered at risk of arrest for performing basic survival activities like rest, eating and asking for help.

Montgomery, AL Southern Poverty Law Center, 2024

By Bill McCarthy and John Hagan

There is now a sizable literature on connections between homelessness, crime, and criminal legal system contact. We review studies on these relationships, focusing mostly on links between the adversity that often characterizes homelessness—the need for shelter, food, and income—and offending, victimization, and involvement with the criminal legal system. We concentrate on multivariate studies from the United States and Canada and consider research on youth and adults. We begin with a short discussion of some of the challenges of studying these relationships. We follow our review of research on homeless conditions with a summary of research that has used data from homeless samples to advance a broad array of explanations of crime; a collection that includes strain, routine activities and lifestyle exposure, differential association, social control, rational choice, life course, and criminal capital theories.

Annual Review of Criminology, Volume 7, Page 257 - 281

By Julie Freccero, Audrey Taylor, Sarah Chynoweth, Justine DeSilva

Children and youth experiencing commercial sexual exploitation (CSE) often have some form of engagement with the child welfare system. Safe and stable housing is vital to minimize vulnerability to CSE, help survivors recover, and reduce revictimization. Yet housing and shelter are among the top service gaps reported by agencies serving trafficking survivors in San Francisco, a high density area for CSE. To address this disparity, in 2019, a coalition of agencies developed Family And Me (FAM), a new model of foster care designed to meet the needs of youth who have experienced or are at risk of CSE in the San Francisco Bay Area. The goal was to establish an evidence-based, youth-centered model of care that could be scaled throughout the State of California and beyond. The 3.5-year FAM pilot aimed to improve the health, safety, and well-being of youth affected by CSE and to increase the knowledge, capacity, and retention rates of the caregivers who support them by offering a range of enhanced support services for both youth and their caregivers. However, due to numerous challenges, such as COVID-19 restrictions and recruitment barriers, the FAM collaborative was only able to implement a portion of the original FAM model.

Berkeley, CA: Human Rights Center at UC Berkeley School of Law, 2022. 40p.

By Shannan Mattiace1and Sandra Ley

ucatán state’s homicide level has remained low and steady for decades and criminalviolence activity is low, even while crime rates in much of the rest of the country have increased since 2006. In this research note, we examine five main theoretical expla-nations for Yucatán’s relative containment of violence: criminal competition, protection networks and party alternation, vertical partisan fragmentation, interagency coordin-ation, and social cohesion among the Indigenous population. Wefind that in Yucatán,interagency coordination is a key explanatory variable, along with cooperation aroundsecurity between Partido Revolucionario Institucional and Partido Acción Nacionalgovernments and among federal and state authorities

journal of Politics in Latin America2022, Vol. 14(1) 103–119© The Author(s) 2022Article reuse guidelines:sagepub.com/journals-permissionsDOI: 10.1177/1866802X221079636journals.sagepub.com/home/pla

By Sara Bourdeau,

At the direction of Sheriff Walt McNeil, the Leon County Sheriff’s Office (LCSO) began a review of data related to the 141 homicides recorded in Leon County from 2015-2020.A The purpose of this exploratory project was to gain a better understanding of the commonalities between the people, conditions, and circumstances contributing to the incidents. The Anatomy of a Homicide Project goals included: 1. Examining commonalities of homicide victims and offenders. 2. Identifying underlying issues, such as adverse childhood experiences (ACE), which may have contributed to or resulted in the homicides. 3. Understanding the various behavioral, social, environmental, economic, or situational factors experienced by both victims and offenders and how these factors may be correlated to the homicides. 4. Identifying commonalities in location, time, and methods by which homicides are committed. 5. Understanding motivational factors contributing to the homicides. 6. Identifying intelligence and investigative gaps and methods to better collect this data in the future. 7. Developing recommendations for targeted actions to mitigate contributing factors and prevent future homicides. The social, emotional, and financial costs of homicide for victims and offenders, the criminal justice system, the health care system, and society in general, far exceed those of other crimes. One study estimated the cost of one (1) murder to be 38 times higher than rape, 51 times higher than an armed robbery, and 119 times higher than an aggravated assault.1 Prevention of homicides is a top priority for the Leon County Sheriff’s Office. Additional research is needed to fully diagnose the problem and move forward with a series of people, place, and behavior-based strategies. When treated as a public health problem, using a scientific epidemiological approach, homicides can be prevented.2 It will take an ALLin community working together with focus, fairness, and a balanced approach of prevention and enforcement. The Leon County Sheriff’s Office dedicates this report to the victims of the homicides which occurred in Leon County from 2015-2020 and the families, friends, and neighborhoods impacted by these tragedies. While we will never fully understand the circumstances of these events, we will build on what we have learned by advocating for additional research, improved data collection and analysis, increased collaboration and information sharing between agencies, providers, and the community, and solutions which are both evidence-based and community informed.

2021 94p.

By Robert J. Sampson† and Brian L. Levy

A longstanding tradition of research linking neighborhood disadvantage to higher rates of violence is based on the characteristics of where people reside. This Essay argues that we need to look beyond residential neighborhoods to consider flows of movement throughout the wider metropolis. Our basic premise is that a neighborhood’s well-being depends not only on its own socioeconomic conditions but also on the conditions of neighborhoods that its residents visit and are visited by—connections that form through networks of everyday urban mobility. Based on the analysis of large-scale urban-mobility data, we find that while residents of both advantaged and disadvantaged neighborhoods in Chicago travel far and wide, their relative isolation by race and class persists. Among large U.S. cities, Chicago’s level of racially segregated mobility is the second highest. Consistent with our major premise, we further show that mobility-based socioeconomic disadvantage predicts rates of violence in Chicago’s neighborhoods beyond their residence-based disadvantage and other neighborhood characteristics, including during recent years that witnessed surges in violence and other broad social changes. Racial disparities in mobility-based disadvantage are pronounced—more so than residential neighborhood disadvantage. We discuss implications of these findings for theories of neighborhood effects on crime and criminal justice contact, collective efficacy, and racial inequality

University of Chicago Law Review, U Chi L Rev > Vol. 89 (2022) > Iss. 2

By KPMG

This report of key findings (the 'Report') has been prepared by KPMG LLP. The Report was commissioned by Philip Morris Limited and Imperial Tobacco Australia Limited, described in this Important Notice and in this Report as together the 'beneficiaries', on the basis set out in a private contract agreed between the beneficiaries and KPMG LLP dated 29 November 2021 . This report has been prepared on the basis of fieldwork carried out between 01 December 2021 and 14 April 2022. The Report has not been updated for subsequent events or circumstances. Information sources, the scope of our work, and scope and source limitations are set out in the footnotes and methodology contained within this Report. The scope of our work, information sources used, and any scope and source limitations were fixed by agreement with the beneficiaries. We have satisfied ourselves, where possible, that the information presented in this Report is consistent with the information sources used, but we have not sought to establish the reliability of the information sources by reference to other evidence. We relied upon and assumed without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of information available from public and third party sources. This Report is not written for the benefit any other party other than the beneficiaries. In preparing this Report we have not taken into account the interests, needs, or circumstances of any specific party, other than the beneficiaries. This Report is not suitable to be relied on by any party (other than· the beneficiaries), Any person or entity ( other than the beneficiaries) who chooses to rely on this Report (or any part of it) will do so at their own risk. To the fullest extent permitted by law, KPMG LLP does not assume any responsibility and will not accept any liability in respect of this Report other than to the beneficiaries. Without limiting the general statement above, although we have prepared this Report in agreement with the beneficiaries, this Report has not been prepared for the benefit of any other manufacturer of tobacco products nor for any other person or entity who might have ari interest in the matters discussed in this Report, including for example those who work in_ or monitor the tobacco or public health sectors or those who provide goods or services to those who operate in those sectors.

KPMG: 2022. 70p.

By Richard Walton, Sophia Falkner and Benjamin Barnard

Research by Policy Exchange finds that fraud and error during the COVID-19 crisis will cost the UK Government in the region of £4.6 billion. The lower bound for the cost of fraud in this crisis is £1.3 billion and the upper bound is £7.9 billion, in light of total projected expenditure of £154.3 billion by the Government (excluding additional expenditure announced in the 8th July 2020 Economic Update). The true value may be closer to the upper bound, due to the higher than usual levels of fraud that normally accompany disaster management.

London: Policy Exchange, 2020. 78p.

By Kaitlyn Sill and Paul A. Haskins.

This article originally appeared in Police Chief and is reposted here with permission from the International Association of Chiefs of Police.

Hate crimes harm whole communities. They are message crimes that tell all members of a group—not just the immediate victims—that they are unwelcome and at risk.

The damage that bias victimization causes multiplies when victims and justice agencies don’t recognize or report hate crimes as such. In addition, in cases for which law enforcement agencies fail to respond to or investigate hate crimes, relationships between law enforcement and affected communities can suffer, and public trust in police can erode.[1]

While it is known that hate crimes are underreported throughout the United States, there is not a clear understanding of exactly why reporting rates are low, to what extent, and what might be done to improve them. An even more elementary question, with no single answer, is: What constitutes a hate crime? Different state statutes and law enforcement agencies have different answers to that question, which further complicates the task of identifying hate crimes and harmonizing hate crime data collection and statistics.

By Carter, Sarah R.; Wheeler, Nicole E.; Chwalek, Sabrina; Isaac, Christopher R.; Yassif, Jaime

From the document: "Rapid scientific and technological advances are fueling a 21st-century biotechnology revolution. Accelerating developments in the life sciences and in technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), automation, and robotics are enhancing scientists' abilities to engineer living systems for a broad range of purposes. These groundbreaking advances are critical to building a more productive, sustainable, and healthy future for humans, animals, and the environment. Significant advances in AI in recent years offer tremendous benefits for modern bioscience and bioengineering by supporting the rapid development of vaccines and therapeutics, enabling the development of new materials, fostering economic development, and helping fight climate change. However, AI-bio capabilities--AI tools and technologies that enable the engineering of living systems--also could be accidentally or deliberately misused to cause significant harm, with the potential to cause a global biological catastrophe. [...] To address the pressing need to govern AI-bio capabilities, this report explores three key questions: [1] What are current and anticipated AI capabilities for engineering living systems? [2] What are the biosecurity implications of these developments? [3] What are the most promising options for governing this important technology that will effectively guard against misuse while enabling beneficial applications? To answer these questions, this report presents key findings informed by interviews with more than 30 individuals with expertise in AI, biosecurity, bioscience research, biotechnology, and governance of emerging technologies."

Nuclear Threat Initiative. 2023. 88p.

By SLEDJESKI, CHRISTOPHER L.

From the document: "Artificial Intelligence (AI) brings many benefits, but disruption of AI could, in the future, generate impacts on scales and in ways not previously imagined. These impacts, at a societal level and in the context of critical infrastructure, include disruptions to National Critical Functions. A prioritized risk-based approach is essential in any attempt to apply cybersecurity requirements to AI used in critical infrastructure functions. The topics of critical infrastructure and AI are simply too vast to meaningfully address otherwise. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) defines cyber secure AI systems as those that can 'maintain confidentiality, integrity and availability through protection mechanisms that prevent unauthorized access and use.' Cybersecurity incidents that impact AI in critical infrastructure could impact the availability, reliability, and safety of these vital services. [...] This paper was prompted by questions presented to MITRE about to what extent the original NIST Cybersecurity Risk Framework, and the efforts that accompanied its release, enabled a regulatory approach that could serve as a model for AI regulation in critical infrastructure. The NIST Cybersecurity Risk Framework was created a decade ago as a requirement of Executive Order (EO) 13636. When this framework was paired with the list of cyber-dependent entities identified under the EO, it provided a voluntary approach for how Sector Risk Management Agencies (SRMAs) prioritize and enhance the cybersecurity of their respective sectors."

MITRE CORPORATION. 2023. 18p.

UNITED STATES. FEDERAL BUREAU OF INVESTIGATION; UNIFORM CRIME REPORTING PROGRAM (U.S.)

From the document: "The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program provides a nationwide view of crime based on data submissions voluntarily reported by non-federal law enforcement agencies throughout the country. The data submitted to the distinct collections detail criminal incidents and law enforcement workforce and operations. For decades, several of these compilations have been published annually. Though each collection presents details of crime data based on numbers provided by participating agencies, the reports vary in context, participation, and publication criteria. 'Crime in the Nation, 2022,' includes data received from 15,724 law enforcement agencies that provided either the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) or the Summary Reporting System (SRS) data. These agencies represent 83.3 percent of agencies actively enrolled in the UCR Program and covering a combined population of 311,628,976 (93.5 percent) inhabitants. Notably, every city agency covering a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants contributed a full 12 months of data to the UCR Program in 2022. In addition to the 'UCR Summary of Crime in the Nation, 2022,' which contains a synopsis of the data, 'Crime in the Nation, 2022' is comprised of the following components: [1] 'Crime in the United States (CIUS), 2022'; [2] 'NIBRS [National Incident-Based Reporting System], 2022'; [3] 'NIBRS Estimates, 2022'; [4] 'Hate Crime Statistics, 2022'; [and 5] 'Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA), 2022: Officers Assaulted'[.]"

United States. Federal Bureau of Investigation. Uniform Crime Reporting Program (U.S.). 2023. 37p.

By The World Health Organization

This report focuses on the interpersonal violence that accounts for most acts of violence against children, and includes child maltreatment, bullying and other types of youth violence, and intimate partner violence (1). Although childhood exposure to interpersonal violence can increase the risk for subsequent selfdirected violence (including suicide and self-harm) (2) and the likelihood of collective violence (including war and terrorism) (3) – and similar root causes underlie all three forms of violence (3,4) – these forms of violence are not covered by the report.

Geneva, SWIT: WHO, 2020. 352p.

By John Pitts

County Lines are criminal networks based mainly in cities that export illegal drugs to one or more out-of-town locations. The organisers use dedicated mobile phone lines to take orders from buyers, and children and vulnerable adults to transport, store and deliver the drugs. County Lines organisers may use coercion, intimidation and violence (including sexual violence) to control this workforce. Initially, the ‘Youngers’, the children involved, may be given money, phones or expensive trainers, but are then told they must repay this by working for the County Lines gang. Sometimes the ‘Elders’, the organisers, arrange for them to be robbed of the drugs they are carrying so that they become indebted. If they protest, they may be told to keep working to pay off the debt or they, and their families, will be subject to violent retribution. The ‘Youngers’, who deliver the drugs, risk being apprehended by the police, assaulted and robbed by their customers or by members of rival gangs (Andell and Pitts, 2018; Harding, 2020). This Academic Insights paper sets out how County Lines operations have developed and evolved over recent years. Focus is then given to multi-agency ways of tackling County Lines which involve probation and youth offending services.

Academic Insights, 2021.01. Manchester, UK: HM Inspectorate of Probation , 2021. 15p.

By Charles M. Katz , Anthony Harriott, and E.C. Hedberg

The article examines a gang-related peace initiative instituted in Greater August Town, Jamaica. Our objective was to understand the negotiation processes and determine whether the gang truce resulted in the desired outcome: a reduction in homicide. Bivariate analyses showed a significant decline in homicides immediately following the truce. Upon closer examination, however, comparing change in the target area to the balance areas in Jamaica and accounting for temporal trends, we found that the decline in homicide was part of a larger nationwide decline in violence and that the gang truce was not responsible for the decline. The only significant effect was the possibility that homicides were displaced outside the target area for a brief period of time.

International Criminal Justice Review 35(2): 2022.