By VERED ANDRE’EV, OMAR MOHAMMED, LARA PORTNOY

Often referred to as the “world’s oldest hatred”, antisemitism, Jew-hatred, or Judeophobia has led to mass expulsions, pogroms, massacres, and the largest genocide in human history – the Holocaust. Hatred against the Jewish people can be traced across history and geography, evolving with global events, trends, and local cultures. Today, antisemitism is experiencing a worldwide revival, with the events of October 7th, 2023, and the resulting Israel-Hamas war serving as an impetus to major spikes in hateful rhetoric and violent action. Antisemitic incidents were already at historic highs; they have increased further. Antisemitism is an issue of serious concern that requires public attention and policy response. As stated in November 2022 by the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA), “antisemitic incidents and hate crimes violate fundamental rights, especially the right to human dignity, the right to equality of treatment and the freedom of thought, conscience and religion”. According to the Anti-Defamation League’s Audit of Antisemitic Incidents 2023, “In 2023, ADL tabulated 8,873 antisemitic incidents across the United States. This represents a 140% increase from the 3,698 incidents recorded in 2022 and is the highest number on record since ADL began tracking antisemitic incidents in 1979.” When assessing antisemitism in Arabic-speaking countries, the situation is even more disturbing. The ADL’s Global 100 survey, first launched in 2014, measures antisemitic beliefs across 100 countries, revealing notably high levels in Arab countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with index scores reaching 74% in Saudi Arabia and 93% in the West Bank and Gaza (Weiberg, 2020). Antisemitism in the Arab world has deep historical roots, intensified by figures like Muhammad Rashid Rida in the early 20th century, who used antisemitic rhetoric in response to political Zionism. This hatred has been embedded in Arab political discourse for over a century, often framed in the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict, where conspiracy theories portray Jews as a global malevolent force. Islamist movements, emerging in the 1920s, have perpetuated these antisemitic views, depicting Jews as historical enemies and untrustworthy partners in peace. The legacy of antisemitism includes influential texts like the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, which were widely disseminated in the Arab world and continue to influence perceptions today (Winter & Link, 2024).

Washington, DC: Program on Extremism at George Washington University , 2025. 35p.

By Kristin Franke Björkman and Lina Fjelkegård

Since 2021, the Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention (Brå) has been commissioned by the Government with evaluating the initiative for 10,000 more police employees. The initiative aims to increase the number of police employees by 10,000 over the period 2016-2024 (Ju2021/02238). This is the third interim report under the assignment and focuses specifically on the investigative activities. The overarching purpose of the report is to analyse staff development and investigative results in the police's work with serious crime, especially serious crimes related to organised crime, and crime against particularly vulnerable victims during the period 2018-2023. In the study, Brå uses the Police Authority's personnel statistics and case data, interviews with heads of units and investigators, as well as a survey on the current staffing situation in the police districts’ investigative sections. In the analyses of case data, we also use the Police Authority's complexity measure, which was developed with the purpose of weighting cases according to how resource-intensive (complex) they are. The higher the value of the complexity measure (Kvalue) a case has, the more resources it requires. Delimitations In terms of staff development, the study is limited to focus specifically on Serious Crimes Investigative Units (SCUs), which are on the police district and regional organisational level, and on Domestic Violence Investigative Units (DVIUs), which are on the police district level. Investigative activities at local police district level are covered to a limited extent, and activities at national level are not included in the study at all. Trends in the inflow of cases and investigation outcomes focus on three overarching categories of offences. The first two categories, serious crimes and serious crimes related to organised crime (a subset of serious crimes), were identified empirically based on the types of crime that, according to the list of offences, shall be investigated at the police district level and are usually investigated by the SCUs. These categories include for example homicide (with or without the use of firearms), extortion, violence against a public official (police officer), arson, destruction causing public endangerment by explosion (hereafter referred to as explosions) and serious weapons offence. The fact that we selected the types of crime that the SCUs normally investigate is a delimitation that Brå has had to make in order for the study to be manageable in its scope. By including explosions and homicides with firearms, which are two of the most resource-intensive types of crime in terms of investigation, we believe that the study captures a key part of the police's investigative activities in relation to serious crime and serious organised crime. The third category, crimes against particularly vulnerable victims (SUB crimes), is the collective name for the offence code groups crimes against children, crimes in close relationships and rape against adults. This study includes those SUB crimes that, according to the list of offences, shall be investigated at police district level and are usually investigated by

the DVIUs. In addition, the study covers, to a limited extent, the investigative activities at the level of local police districts and their investigation of volume crimes, which are less complex and common types of crime such as theft, assault, and minor drug offences. The main outcome used to measure investigative performance is the proportion of cases reported to prosecutors out of all closed cases involving a preliminary investigation, which we refer to as clearance rate. Some analyses also present the number of cases reported to prosecutors. More employees in the investigative activities Within the investigative activities as a whole, the number of employees has increased by 2,900 (36%) over the period 2018-2023. However, staff growth is not evenly distributed across organisational levels, but is significantly higher at police district and regional level than at local police district level. Increased inflow of cases and high number of staff on temporary loan in Serious Crimes Over the period 2018-2023, the total inflow of serious crimes has increased by almost 30 per cent, both in terms of the number of cases and their complexity (K-value). However, the number of serious crime cases handled by the specialised Serious Crimes Investigative Units (SCUs) has remained relatively unchanged over time, while the K-value has increased. This development indicates that less complex cases have been removed from the SCUs, while a larger part of their inflow consists of the most complex serious crimes. The clear discrepancy between the increase in total inflow of cases (30%) and the unchanged inflow to the SCUs also suggests that a large and increasing number of serious crimes are handled in other parts of the organisation. This is also reflected in the increasing number of serious crime cases handled by local police districts. The number of serious crimes investigated by local police districts has increased by more than 80 per cent since 2018. Police Region Stockholm is the main driver of this development. There, the number of serious crimes investigated by local police districts has increased by almost 300 per cent. The number of employees in the SCUs has increased by 250 people, just over 30 per cent, between 2018 and 2023. The increase in staff took place mainly at the beginning and end of the period studied. Police Region Stockholm stands out with a significantly lower staff growth than the other regions (7%). Police Region Mitt has also experienced relatively low growth (17%). Growth is highest in Police Region Bergslagen (75%). Despite large regional variations, the overall picture is that despite the increase in staff, the specialised SCUs have not been able to cope with the increased influx of serious crimes. The staffing survey of the investigative sections also shows that the teams have difficulty managing the influx of cases themselves. According to the survey, almost a quarter of the SCU's staffing consists of temporarily borrowed staff.

English summary of Brå report 2024:9

Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 14p.

By Lina Fjelkegård and Emma Patel

The number of residential burglaries has decreased sharply in recent years – between 2017 and 2023, they were basically halved. However, many people still become victims of burglary. In 2023, 10,000 residential burglaries were reported to the police, and only 4 per cent were solved. Those affected may experience the burglary as a violation of privacy, and feel unsafe at home. For these reasons, Brå initiated this study on residential burglaries. The purpose is to provide an overall picture of the nature of residential burglaries, but also to examine the development of this crime over time, and how the police handle residential burglaries. Different methods and materials were used for this. We start from a number of preliminary investigations into residential burglaries, which Brå has coded and analysed. We have also used reporting statistics, data from police records, and interviews with police employees. International networks have probably had an impact Between 2007 and 2017, the number of reported residential burglaries in Sweden increased significantly. Brå has investigated possible explanations, and one piece of the puzzle seems to be increased activity from international crime networks from Eastern Europe. This may, in turn, be due to more open borders to the East and increased unemployment after the financial crisis in 2008. After 2017, the number of reported residential burglaries decreased – and around that time, border protection in Sweden was also enhanced. Meanwhile, the number of suitable objects for theft in dwellings seems to have decreased. The pandemic, which meant that people worked from home more, may also have contributed to a decrease in residential burglaries. However, Brå's review is only cursory, and several factors may have influenced the development of residential burglaries. Differences between single-family houses and flats Metropolitan municipalities generally have the highest number of reported burglaries per dwelling. Sparsely populated municipalities have the lowest number. The differences between the metropolitan municipalities and others mainly concern burglaries of single-family homes – flat burglaries are more evenly distributed across the country. There are also differences between single-family homes and flats in how the burglaries are committed. Single-family home burglaries are most often done by someone breaking open a window or a back door, while flats are more often breached through the entrance door. Flat burglaries are also more often committed with a low degree of finesse than single-family home burglaries. Most residential burglaries are committed during the day and the victim is rarely at home. The things stolen are often small and valuable. Two-thirds acted professionally To describe suspects of residential burglaries, Brå made a distinction between amateur and professional perpetrators. In one-third of the preliminary investigations, the perpetrators were classified as clear amateurs. They more frequently burglarised flats, and they relatively often had an addiction or mental illness. The female suspects most often fell into this group. The more professional perpetrators are more difficult to identify – they are less often caught and there is therefore less information about them in Brå's material. However, there is one group that can be described as clearly professional, and this is probably where you’ll find the international crime networks. According to the police, they often use false identities, change registration plates, and clean up traces at the crime scene. There is probably also an intermediate category of perpetrators who are neither amateurs nor among the most expert. The boundaries are also fluid for what is organised crime and what is not. People can, for example, be recruited temporarily by the criminal networks. The police could take more investigative measures According to the police's internal recommendations, the authority should always send out a police patrol in the event of a residential burglary, and then use specially trained staff for the technical investigation. Both of these things are also often done – a patrol was sent out in 73 per cent of burglaries of single-family houses. On average, the police carry out four investigative measures per residential burglary. However, Brå estimates that more measures probably could have been taken in almost half of the preliminary investigations. Often, there is no interrogation of an injured party or a witness. Police Region Stockholm carries out fewer investigative measures than the other police regions. Consistently, the police take more measures in cases of burglaries of single-family houses than in cases of flat burglaries. Today, the police immediately dismiss one-third of reports of residential burglaries, and the proportion has increased over time. It is also reasonable to immediately dismiss crimes that have little chance of being solved. Not everything that is reported is a crime – Brå sees that one-third of the preliminary investigations probably do not include residential burglaries. At the same time, the proportion of solved cases is only four per cent, and Brå estimates that the police can quite often do more. In particular, interrogations of injured parties and witnesses can be carried out more often. The police can improve coordination of investigations and work more on finding stolen goods There are four main ways to catch a perpetrator; in the act, trace evidence, witness identification, and stolen goods. This is according to the reported preliminary investigations. Police catch a suspect in the act in one third of the cases. In 29 per cent of cases, trace evidence is used to catch the suspect, usually DNA. Often, special local crime scene investigators (LCSI) collect traces. They conduct thorough examinations, which can be used to detect serial crime, but which rarely lead to a match in the police database. Therefore, Brå considers it could sometimes be more efficient to let the first police patrol do the crime scene investigation. This is especially true if there is no functioning crime linkage that can make use of traces collected by LCSI. Such coordination is lacking in several police regions – and it benefits organised crime when each case is handled locally. In one in five cases, witness identification is used to catch the perpetrator. More identifications could probably be made if the police interviewed more witnesses than today. There is also potential for improvement in terms of stolen goods. Today, a fifth of the cases are solved by the police identifying stolen goods. However, the goods are often discovered in connection with other matters – there is not much independent monitoring of stolen goods within the police. Brå assesses that there is a need for better IT tools and more active work in finding stolen goods. Report 2024:12 Stockholm: Swedish National Council on Crime Prevention, 2024. 7p.

By Anniina Jokinen, Anna-Greta Pekkarinen, Jessiina Rantanen

Forced marriage is a multifaceted phenomenon encompassing sev - eral intersecting factors that relate to situations in which individu - als are compelled to marry or stay married against their will. Forced marriage is widely recognized as a violation of human rights and in particular as a form of gender-based violence and honour-based vio - lence. The harms and negative consequences of forced marriages are multifold and challenge many service providers as well as the crimi - nal justice system. This report outlines the concrete challenges, factors and con - cepts that must be addressed when developing effective responses to tackle forced marriages and providing support to victims and persons affected. It is targeted towards various professionals and practitioners who may encounter victims of forced marriage or persons, families or communities affected by the phenomenon in their line of work. The content is based on a desk review of academic and other relevant liter - ature, as well information collected by the EASY project partners: the European Institute for Crime Prevention and Control, affiliated with the United Nations (HEUNI), University of Lleida (Spain), Associació Valentes I Acompanyades (Spain), SOLWODI (Germany), and the Im - migrant Council of Ireland, to identify approaches that have relevance in the development of effective and victim-centred interventions for victims of forced marriages. The best practices were collected mainly via semi-structured (individual or group) interviews with experts and/or survivors, that were based on a shared interview framework. The interviews were conducted in the summer and autumn of 2023.1 The experts interviewed included, e.g., NGO representatives and counsellors working with topics related to forced marriage, migrant women’s rights, honor-based violence and human trafficking, shelter/residential counsellors, government officials and policymakers, and law enforcement authorities from Finland, Germany, Ireland, and Catalonia (Spain). The survivors interviewed included, e.g., victim-survivors who work as mentors and/or had been supported by the interviewing organisation. Throughout the report there are quotes from the interviews to demonstrate the challenges, experiences and solutions identified. Table 1. Number of persons interviewed to collect best practices by each country and in total. The best practices collected were also shared and discussed with partners in a best practice workshop hosted by SOLWODI in Bonn, Germany on 20–21 November 2023. Each partner identified 4–8 best practices with a focus on themes such as proactive methods to identify victims, engaging with persons from impacted communities and reducing the risk of forced marriage; ways to support and assist victims; training and awareness-raising activities targeting professionals; multi-agency collaboration at local, national and international levels; and municipal, regional or national strategies to tackle or address honor-related violence and/or forced marriages. Ten of the collected best practices were selected and summarised for this publication. Moreover, in early 2024, the EASY project partners launched a legislative overview which presents the results of comparative desk research on the legal approach to forced marriage in Germany, Finland, Ireland and Spain (Villacampa and Salat 2023). Therefore, this report does not cover legislative frameworks and procedures in place in the four countries to address forced marriages and to protect the victims as they are covered in detail in the legislative overview. The two reports are complimentary. The ultimate aim of the EASY project is to enhance support for victims/survivors of forced marriage and strengthen the work against forced marriage in the four partner countries.

Helsinki: European Institute for Crime Prevention and Control, affiliated with the United Nations (HEUNI) HEUNI, 2024. 58p.

By Aisha M Abubakar, Rowland G Seymour, Alison Gardner, Imogen Lambert, Rachel Fyson, Nicola Wright

Background

Exploitation poses a significant public health concern. This paper highlights ‘jigsaw pieces’ of statistical evidence, indicating cognitive impairment as a pre- or co-existing factor in exploitation.

Methods

We reviewed English Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) data and Safeguarding Adults Reviews (SARs) from 2017 to 22. Data relevant to exploitation and cognitive impairment were analysed using summary statistics and ‘analysis of variance’.

Results

Despite estimates suggesting cognitive impairments may be prevalent among people experiencing exploitation in England, national datasets miss opportunities to illuminate this issue. Although SAC data include statistics on support needs and various forms of abuse and exploitation, they lack intersectional data. Significant regional variations in recorded safeguarding investigations and potential conflation between abuse and exploitation also suggest data inconsistencies. Increased safeguarding investigations for people who were not previously in contact with services indicate that adults may be ‘slipping through the net’. SARs, although representing serious cases, provide stronger evidence linking cognitive impairment with risks of exploitation.

Conclusions

This study identifies opportunities to collect detailed information on cognitive impairment and exploitation. The extremely limited quantitative evidence-base could be enhanced using existing data channels to build a more robust picture, as well as improve prevention, identification and response efforts for ‘at-risk’ adults.

Journal of Public Health, Volume 46, Issue 4, December 2024, Pages 498–505,

By Aisha Abubakar, Rowland Seymour, Alison Gardner, Nicola Wright, Rachel Fyson, Imogen Lambert, and Rachael Clawsona

People with an illness, disability or other health conditions are more likely to experience various forms of exploitation in comparison to other groups, particularly if their health condition necessitates assistance with daily functioning such as personal care, financial management, or socialising. For the purpose of this study, we consider a wide range of cognitive impairments and differences that affect processing, understanding, and memory, and therefore may cause additional challenges in everyday life. People with ‘hidden’ disabilities such as mental health conditions, cognitive decline, intellectual disabilities, autism, and ADHD are more vulnerable to exploitation than people with other types of disability. For example, they may be vulnerable due to trauma from adverse experiences leading to dissociation, or addiction means they can be exploited to fulfil their needs. They may struggle to recognise when they are being exploited and may be unable to effectively communicate or report abuse. Adults with cognitive impairment living alone may be vulnerable, while those having difficulty understanding financial matters may be more vulnerable to financial exploitation. The aforementioned factors not only increase vulnerability to exploitation but also amplify the severity of harm when exploitation occurs, making the relationship between cognitive impairment and exploitation a complex and multidimensional phenomenon. Hence, implementing strategies that pay attention to these factors is imperative in preventing exploitation and mitigating the severity of harm. Yet, there is a lack of public and official statistics to quantify the intersections between exploitation and disability/cognitive impairment to inform appropriate strategies for mitigation. Adults with cognitive impairments may be classed as a vulnerable group of individuals at increased risk of being exploited because of their reduced capacity to identify and report abuse or exploitation. Hence the prevalence of exploitation in this population is

not well understood, it is thought to be under-reported due to the challenges faced by these individuals in communicating their experiences . Section 42 (S42) of the Care Act 2014 requires local authorities in England to conduct investigations when they have reasonable grounds to suspect that an adult with care and support needs is experiencing, or is at risk of experiencing, abuse, neglect, or exploitation. Social workers, health professionals, the police, and other relevant stakeholders are all involved in S42 investigations, with the aim of ensuring the safety and well-being of adults with care and support needs, as well as preventing and responding to incidences of maltreatment. Hence, these enquiries are intended to garner information about the adult and their circumstances, assess the risks to their safety, and determine the best way to protect them. Estimates from the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) show that between 2014 and 2020, people with cognitive impairment aged between 16 and 59 were more likely to be victims of different forms of domestic abuse and sexual assaults than people with other forms of impairment, particularly women. However, it is not possible to extrapolate what incidents reported by individuals with lived experience constitute exploitation in the CSEW. Hence this paper is an exploratory study aimed at quantitatively understanding the intersections between cognitive impairment and exploitation. Given that there is currently very little intersecting data, quantitative statements about how people with cognitive impairment are at risk of, or are being exploited, need to be extrapolated. To extrapolate the relationship between cognitive impairment and exploitation, this

study provides a descriptive account of disability prevalence, exploitation prevalence and S42 enquiries in English LAs using data from the Family Resources Survey (FRS), the National Referral Mechanism (NRM), and the Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC), with the aim of addressing the following important questions: • Are there trends in disability prevalence and exploitation by types of impairment, and if so, what types of cognitive impairment and exploitation are more prominent? • Are there trends in S42 enquiries, and if so, what are they? • What proportion of S42 enquiries involved people with cognitive impairment? • How frequently did exploitation appear as a factor of S42 enquiries? The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Section 2 explains what data is currently available to quantify the relationship between cognitive impairment and exploitation. The results and discussion in Section 3 then provides a contextual and descriptive account of the prevalence of disability and exploitation in England, including findings from the analysis of S42 enquiries. The final section offers concluding remarks, limitations, and emerging recommendations.

Working Paper 2023 50p.

By Alison Gardner, Aisha Abubakar, Imogen Lambert, David Charnock, Rachael Clawson, Rachel Fyson, Nicola Wright , Rowland Seymour

In recent years there has been increasing attention to ‘modern slavery’, human trafficking and wider forms of exploitation both in the UK and internationally. There has also been growing awareness that people can be placed at risk of exploitation by a wide range of personal, social and economic circumstances, including physical and mental health issues. News stories have highlighted examples of people with different forms of cognitive impairment experiencing control and exploitation by those seeking to profit from their labour or property, sometimes over long periods of time. However, statistics on this issue remain elusive. This project aimed to provide the first robust description of the intersection between cognitive impairment and the exploitation of adults in England. We were interested mainly in cognitive impairment as a risk factor prior-to exploitation, rather than impairment caused by experiences of exploitation. Whilst we recognise that there is a wide spread of IQ and cognitive ability across populations, we define cognitive impairment broadly to include both developmental and acquired impairments including intellectual disability, dementia, brain injury, autistic spectrum disorders, ADHD, functional mental health disorders and substance misuse. We also examined a diverse spectrum of exploitation looking at a range of situations where one person, either opportunistically or premeditatedly, unfairly manipulates another person for profit or personal gain. Research methods Our multi—method study included the following methods of data collection and analysis. ■ A wide-ranging scoping review of existing literature. ■ Analysis of statistical information, including data on exploitation and support needs within the Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) from NHS England Digital between 2017 and 2022, as well as wider contextual data. ■ Quantitative and qualitative analysis of evidence extracted from Safeguarding Adults Reviews (SARs) featuring exploitation during the same period (2017-2022). SARs (formerly known as serious case reviews) are initiated in cases where an adult with care and support needs has suffered serious harm or death, and abuse or exploitation is suspected. From our initial search of a national library of SARs we identified and analysed 58 narrative SARs featuring exploitation involving 71 people. ■ An open online survey of practitioners who were working in roles relevant to safeguarding people with cognitive impairment, which gained 95 responses. ■ Semi-structured interviews with 24 practitioners and 26 people who had lived experience of cognitive impairments and exploitation. ■ Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to inform our understanding of how factors combine to increase risks for exploitation.

Key findings 1 Previous studies suggest that cognitive impairments can increase vulnerability to exploitation Academic literature looking at cognitive impairment and exploitation is sparse, but our scoping review found 20 studies published in English that related to the topic. These covered three types of exploitation (sexual, financial and criminal) with intellectual disability and mental health the most frequently discussed types of impairments. The literature indicated that cognitive impairment was a factor increasing vulnerability to exploitation, but the limited number of studies meant that it was difficult to disentangle complexities in the relationship between cognitive impairment and exploitation without further research. 2 Existing datasets and surveys miss important opportunities to publish intersecting data on cognitive impairment and exploitation. Building on the literature review, we went on to examine the data that was available in England relating to cognitive impairment and exploitation. A review of statistical information found that existing English surveys and datasets currently describe the prevalence of disability and exploitation separately. With minor adjustments these could collate and publish intersecting data on cognitive impairment and exploitation, but at present these opportunities are being missed. Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) Data from NHS England includes statistics on support needs (including cognitive impairments) and various forms of abuse and exploitation, but has some limitations. In particular, it does not yet publish data showing the intersections between different types of support needs and forms of abuse. There were also significant regional variations in recorded safeguarding investigations, as well as potential for conflation between abuse and exploitation, which could create data inconsistencies. The SAC data did show increased safeguarding investigations for people who were not previously in contact with services, indicating that more adults with support needs may not be known to services until a crisis occurs. There were also a small but increasing number of reports of modern slavery. 3 Cognitive impairments are present within 96% of individuals in Safeguarding Adults Reviews that include exploitation Analysis of Safeguarding Adult Reviews (SARs) on exploitation showed clearer connection between cognitive impairment and exploitation. Approximately 96% of individuals in reviews that included exploitation between 2017 and 2022 focussed on adults who had some form of cognitive impairment. 4 People are often exploited in multiple ways, and alongside other abuses The relationship between cognitive impairment and exploitation is complex, with multiple forms of exploitation and abuse often co-existing and overlapping, alongside diverse risk factors. Both data from SARs and our survey suggests that financial exploitation and ‘mate crime’ (being exploited by someone posing as a friend) were the most commonly-experienced forms of exploitation. However, these more frequently observed forms often co-occur alongside others, such as sexual, labour or criminal exploitation. People with experience of living with cognitive impairment also identified ‘everyday exploitation’ as part of their regular experience, including issues like being targeted for phone and online scams. 5 Risks for exploitation arise not just from cognitive conditions, but their social impacts. The presence of a coercive and controlling relationship is a key factor. Factors identified as contributing to vulnerability included substance misuse, intellectual disabilities, mental health and dementia or cognitive decline, though in many cases there were multiple diagnoses. Complex and developmental trauma in earlier life was frequently evident. A lack of diagnosis was also a frequent challenge for practitioners seeking to support individuals at risk of exploitation. Beyond clinical factors, a range of social drivers impacted on vulnerability to exploitation, including limited or absent family support, harmful social networks, trauma and isolation. People with lived experience also described the impact of discrimination and hate-crime, and social precarity, sometimes driven through factors such as irregular immigration status or unemployment. Factors such as a history of abuse and/ or other adverse experiences such as bullying could also be present. Coercive and controlling relationships were also a significant factor predicting exploitation alongside the existence of social networks used to target a potential victim.

Nottingham, UK: University of Nottingham, Rights Lab, 2024. 58p.

By Riku Lindqvist · Chiara Lombardini · Leila Suvantola2· Markku Ollikainen

Applying the rational choice model of crime, this study estimates the optimality of sanctions for environmental crimes, the social cost of these crimes and the expected gain to the offender with Finnish court data from 327 criminal cases in the period 2013–2018. Sensitivity analyses are conducted for the optimal fne, the expected gain from the crime and its social cost. The time-lag and uncertainties related to the restoration of the environmental harm are explicitly included in the model and the empirical analysis. The average fne was much lower than the optimal fne even when taking into account the constraint posed by the offenders' wealth and disregarding the time-lag and uncertainties related to the restoration of the environmental harm. The use of prison sentences was also suboptimal. Even when the illegal gain was fully forfeited, the expected gain from the crime to the offender remained positive. Our results suggest a need to increase the cost of punishment by higher fnes and reliable forfeiture of the illegal economic gain. They also point to the importance of systematically estimating both the environmental damage and the illegal gain from the crime as these were available respectively for only 24% (N=79) and 3% (N=11) of all cases.

European Journal of Law and Eco

By Federico Varese  & Fanqi Zeng

Studies of organized crime in cities have traditionally concentrated on the global south or ethnic enclaves and traditional mafa territories within the global north. Here this study turns its attention to governance-type organized crime in the English city of Nottingham, where the main protagonists are white and British born. It investigates whether such a gang can govern communities by reducing ordinary crimes. We conduct in-depth interviews with local ofcials and analyze a novel dataset of the public’s phone calls to the Nottingham police from 2012 to 2019, encompassing spatio-temporal information and police-labeled crime types. We identify Nottingham’s ward of Bestwood as the site of an entrenched, governance-type organized crime group, whereas its most similar ward, Bulwell, is not. Further comparative analyses indicate that certain ordinary crime rates are significantly lower in Bestwood than in Bulwell. We conclude that governance-type organized crime can emerge in a country with a high capacity to police and in a nonimmigrant, less affluent community. Our findings suggest that traditional explanations of the emergence of criminal governance in cities need to be revisited.

Nature Cities | Volume 1 | December 2024 | 821–829

By Haolei Zheng, Daqian Liu, YangWang & XiaoliYue

Current academic research on fitting the volume of urban theft crimes at a macro size is limited, especially from the urban functionality perspective. Given this gap, this study utilizes a Bayesian model to conduct a fitting analysis of theft crime data from 674 cities in China from 2018 to 2020. This research aims to explore novel pathways for theft crime fitting. Results indicate that the size of urban functionality, particularly points of interest (POIs), exhibits excellent performance in fitting theft crimes, with POIs related to public services and commercial activities demonstrating the most significant fitting effects. This research successfully identifies effective indicators for crime fitting, thereby offering a new perspective and supplement to theft crime research. This study holds significant value for gaining a profound understanding of criminal phenomena and explaining the causes and mechanisms underlying the differences in theft crimes among various cities in China.

Scientific Reports,

Volume 14, article number 26447, (2024)

By Marieke Kluin · Lisa Ansems · Jelle Brands

The public has grown increasingly concerned about environmental issues. However, few studies examine the perceived seriousness of environmental crimes. Those that do tend to focus on US citizens and compare crime seriousness ratings among different types of crimes, rather than examining the factors that shape perceptions of environmental crime seriousness. By employing a vignette survey among Dutch citizens (N=261), the current paper seeks to address this knowledge gap. It focuses on two such factors: (1) whether or not the environmental crime is committed intentionally, and (2) whether or not the environmental crime causes considerable harm. The results show that environmental crimes were perceived as more serious when committed intentionally and when they caused considerable harm. Furthermore, intentions affected perceived seriousness less in case of harm and harm affected perceived seriousness less in case the crime was committed intentionally. Together, these findings enhance our understanding of the factors that shape the perceived seriousness of environmental crimes.

Crime, Law and Social Change (2025) 83:3

By Ella Cockbain, Patricio Estévez-Soto, and Felia Allum

Organised crime – and the people, processes and structures involved – do not exist in a geographical vacuum. They have an inherent spatiality: shaped by and shaping the places they occupy in physical, virtual and hybrid spaces. Although the ‘social embeddedness’ of organised crime is relatively well-recognised, its spatiality – or ‘spatial embeddedness’ – has been neglected. This article contextualises and introduces our special issue on the new geographies of organised crime. We put forward a central argument that geographical lenses can advance and enrich understanding of organised crime, briefly review relevant literature and explain some of the foundational concepts in geographical thinking. We discuss the rationale for this special issue and highlight its papers’ main contributions. Since the geographies of the illicit are full of complexities, heterogeneities and subjectivities, we do not propose any singular approach, but rather see a plurality of possibilities for better incorporating geography into organised crime scholarship. Accordingly, the papers are theoretically and methodologically diverse, as well as covering varied topics and locations

Criminology & Criminal Justice, 25(1). 2025, 3-20 pages

By Aisha M Abubakar, Rowland G Seymour, Alison Gardner, Imogen Lambert, Rachel Fyson, Nicola Wright

Background

Exploitation poses a significant public health concern. This paper highlights ‘jigsaw pieces’ of statistical evidence, indicating cognitive impairment as a pre- or co-existing factor in exploitation.

Methods

We reviewed English Safeguarding Adults Collection (SAC) data and Safeguarding Adults Reviews (SARs) from 2017 to 22. Data relevant to exploitation and cognitive impairment were analysed using summary statistics and ‘analysis of variance’.

Results

Despite estimates suggesting cognitive impairments may be prevalent among people experiencing exploitation in England, national datasets miss opportunities to illuminate this issue. Although SAC data include statistics on support needs and various forms of abuse and exploitation, they lack intersectional data. Significant regional variations in recorded safeguarding investigations and potential conflation between abuse and exploitation also suggest data inconsistencies. Increased safeguarding investigations for people who were not previously in contact with services indicate that adults may be ‘slipping through the net’. SARs, although representing serious cases, provide stronger evidence linking cognitive impairment with risks of exploitation.

Conclusions

This study identifies opportunities to collect detailed information on cognitive impairment and exploitation. The extremely limited quantitative evidence-base could be enhanced using existing data channels to build a more robust picture, as well as improve prevention, identification and response efforts for ‘at-risk’ adults.

Journal of Public Health, Volume 46, Issue 4, December 2024, Pages 498–505,

By Elin Lindqvist, Jacob Hollenberg, Mattias Ringh, Per Nordberg, Henrik Druid, Leif Svensson, Sune Forsberg

Background

Approximately 1% of Sweden's 90 000 annual deaths were reported caused by poisoning. In this study, we aim to describe this poisoning population's characteristics, autopsy frequency and results of toxicology testing.

Method

A national cohort study based on Swedish national registers. All deceased subjects older than 18 years with poisoning as the cause of death registered between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2021 were included. Causes of death according to primary ICD-10 code were analysed along with the substances found in forensic chemistry testing.

Results

There were 27 057 poisonous deaths during the study periods 2 018 495 adult deaths. Subjects deceased due to poisoning had a median age of 53 years, and 18 838 (70%) were men. A private home was the most reported location of death (52%). In total, 23 260 (87%) did undergo some sort post-mortem examination. Drugs (synthetic narcotics, opioids, heroin) caused 12 448 (46%) deaths, and alcohols explained 9056 cases (33%). Positive toxicological tests were found in 22 550 (83%) of the subjects. The most common separate substances were ethanol, zopiclone and nordazepam.

Conclusion

Poisoning caused 1.3% of Swedish deaths. Men in their 50s were the most common victims, and their deaths were often cause by synthetic narcotics, other opioids or alcohol. The autopsy frequency was lower than expected for poisonous deaths.

Basic & Clinical Pharmacology & Toxicology, early view, 2024;1–8.

By Neil Donnelly

To examine 10-year trends in offending by females in New South Wales (NSW) between 2014 and 2023. METHOD Data were extracted from the NSW Police Force’s Computerised Operational Policing System (COPS) for all people proceeded against by the NSW Police Force between 2014 and 2023. The number and proportion of offences committed by female and male offenders are presented. Offending trends are examined across 32 specific offence categories using the average annual percentage change in offences and the Kendall’s rank order correlation test to determine statistical significance. This analysis is conducted for the entire population of female and male offenders regardless of age, then repeated for the subset of young offenders. RESULTS Between 2014 and 2023 the number of females proceeded against by NSW police increased by 40%, compared to just 17% for males. The proportion of female offenders grew by around 15%, from 19% of all offenders in 2014 to 22% of all offenders in 2023. Female offenders were most commonly proceeded against for steal from retail store (12%), possess/use drugs (12%), domestic violence (DV) assault (11%), non-DV assault (7%) and breach bail conditions (7%). Much of the overall growth in female offending can be explained by increases in a small number of high-volume offence categories. These include: breach of Apprehended Violence Orders (12% increase in female offences from 2014 to 2023 versus a 7% increase in male offenders); breach bail conditions (12% vs. 8%); DV assault (8% vs. 2%); and non-DV assault (4% vs. 1%). The average annual number of female offenders (compared to males) also increased across several lower volume offences, although these contributed less to the growth in female offending overall. Most predominantly: sexual touching, sexual act and other sexual offences (13% vs. 2.5%); motor vehicle theft (12% vs. 9%); prohibited weapons offences (8% vs. 4%); break and enter non-dwelling (7% vs. stable); and trespass (6% vs. 3%). Trends and offending patterns were similar for young female offenders aged 10-17 years. One difference was the number of young female offenders grew by just 20% between 2014 and 2023 (compared to relatively stable trends for young male offenders). CONCLUSION While there has been a long-term increase in the number of female offenders proceeded against by the NSW Police Force, they continue to represent a small proportion of all offenders. Further analysis utilising representative surveys may provide insight int

Sydney: NSW BUREAU OF CRIME STATISTICS AND RESEARCH - 2024. 14p.

By Nicholas Chan and Alana Cook

It is well recognised that both domestic and non-domestic violence vary over the course of the year often rising in summer and spiking during holiday periods and with other key events. This paper shows the daily number of domestic violence (DV) and non-DV assaults recorded by the NSW Police Force on each date of the year to observe the extent to which violence increases on public holidays and other significant dates1 . Figure 1 shows the median daily number of criminal incidents of assault recorded by police from the years 2010 to 2023. To minimise the impact of abnormal crime patterns during the COVID pandemic, the chart excludes the years 2020 and 2021. The chart shows that across the year, there are clear peaks on several dates. The largest spike for both DV assault and non-DV assault occurs on New Year’s Day (1 January). Obvious spikes in assault also occur on Australia Day (January 26), ANZAC Day (April 25), New Year’s Eve (31 December), Christmas Day (December 25) and Boxing Day (December 26).

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. 2024. 4p.

By Charles C. Lanfear, David S. Kirk , Robert J. Sampson

Most homicides in the United States are committed using a handgun, but little research examines gun carrying over critical stages of the life course and changing contexts of violence. Notably, although most of the handgun homicides are committed by adults, most research on concealed gun carrying focuses on adolescents in single cohort studies. Using more than 25 years of longitudinal multi-cohort data from Chicago, 1994–2021, we show that pathways of concealed gun carrying are distinct between adolescence and adulthood. Adolescent carrying is often age-limited and responsive to direct exposure to gun violence (witnessing and victimization), while adult carrying is a persistent behavior that is less tied to direct exposure. The onset of concealed carry is also a strong predictor of later gun use (shooting or brandishing), and we find distinct patterns of gun use between individuals who first carry in adolescence versus adulthood. We discuss the implications of these dual pathways for research and policies on firearm use.

Sci. Adv. 10, 2024, 12p.

By Rohit Acharya and Rhett Morris

In 2020, the average U.S. city experienced a surge in its homicide rate of almost 30%—the fastest spike ever recorded in the country. Across the nation, more than 24,000 people were killed compared to around 19,000 the year before.

Homicides remained high in 2021 and 2022, but in 2023 they began to fall rapidly. Projections suggest the national homicide rate in 2024 is on track to return to levels close to those recorded in 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Yet that spike in murders continues to deliver major costs in terms of the lives lost, the people incarcerated, and the perception of decreased safety across the country.

Some commentators have suggested the increase in homicides during 2020 was a response to the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in May of that year. Others hypothesized that it was caused by a police “pull back,” in which officers chose to do less work in reaction to the protests that followed Floyd’s death.

As more information has become available, these theories appear to be less supported by evidence than some initially thought.1 The evidence indicates that the national homicide rate was already on track to reach a peak far above the previous year even before Floyd was killed.As Figure 1 demonstrates, murders began to rise rapidly in mid-April of 2020. Cell phone data show this is when residents started leaving home more often as lockdown policies eased and the weather grew warmer. During the 6-week period from April 12 to May 23 (weeks 16 to 21 in Figure 1), homicides went up by an average of 17 murders each week.

After Floyd was killed on May 25, the national homicide rate continued to follow this trend, with additional increases during the 2 weeks around Memorial Day and the 2-week period around July 4. But even the highest point of these additional increases was less than 40 murders above the pre-existing trend. While it’s true that homicides did temporarily rise more than they were already on track to following Floyd’s death, these additional increases are unlikely to explain the 5,000 additional murders seen during the year.

This leaves us with a question: What happened that could have caused homicides to spike in 2020, remain high for 2 years, and then start to decline rapidly in 2023?

New data offers a potential explanation. In this report, we analyze thousands of police records and compare them to changes that occurred in U.S. cities just before homicides started to surge. This showed that the spike in murders during 2020 was directly connected to local unemployment and school closures in low-income areas. Cities with larger numbers of young men forced out of work and teen boys pushed out of school in low-income neighborhoods during March and early April, had greater increases in homicide from May to December that year, on average. The persistence of these changes can also explain why murders remained high in 2021 and 2022 and then fell in late 2023 and 2024.

These analyses point to new answers and offer focused solutions that civic leaders can use to prevent future spikes in murder and reduce current levels of violence. We present these findings in detail below in three main sections:

First, we review evidence from existing research that reveals a formula for how violence develops in cities.

Second, we analyze detailed administrative data from a single city with multiple spikes in murder prior to the COVID-19 pandemic to illustrate how this formula applies to local communities.

Finally, we use lessons from this analysis to offer a new explanation for the national spike in homicides in 2020 and make recommendations on how to avoid future increases in murder.

Brookings, 2024. 20p.

By Erica Marat and Gulzat Botoeva

Summary This research brief examines the links between illegal drug trafficking, violence, and corruption in Central Asia. We argue that drug trafficking is highly organised with major criminal and state actors participating in the illicit activity. Criminal violence is spread across the region, especially in urban areas, but the Central Asian states are capable of intercepting and preventing illicit activities. By analysing big data on violence, drug interdictions, and patterns of corruption in the region between 2015 and 2022, we explain the relationship between drug trafficking and key actors from the criminal underworld and state agencies in Central Asia. We also rely on expert interviews explaining states’ involvement in the drugs economy. Our analysis of violence and policing dynamics in the region shows how patterns of organised crime change depending on state effectiveness and the presence of competition between traffickers. Each country exhibits a unique relationship between state actors and criminal syndicates in both interdicting and facilitating drug trafficking. Our research comes at a time of an anticipated increase in drug trafficking from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, and of growing economic uncertainty in the wider region due to Western sanctions against Russia. In the policy realm, our research findings can help develop anti-trafficking strategies in the Central Asian region and improve our understanding of how drug trafficking can be curbed more effectively by identifying the main actors involved in this highly organised criminal process

Birmingham, UK: University of Birmingham., 2022. 48p.

By Mark Galeotti

In May 2022, Lithuanian police raided two underground factories where counterfeit cigarettes worth some €73 million were being produced.2 This happens all the time, and even the involvement of a Russian-linked organized crime group was hardly unusual. However, as the investigation extended to Belgium (where the goods would be transhipped to Britain), it became clear that behind the gangsters lay Russian intelligence officers, who were using the business – or at least part of its profits – to raise operational funds for their activities in Europe. With Putin regarding himself as ‘at war’ with the West, at a time when Europol chief Catherine de Bolle is warning that organized crime is on the rise across Europe,3 and Thomas Haldenwang, head of Germany’s counter-intelligence agency, is assessing ‘the risk of [Russian] state-controlled acts of sabotage to be significantly increased’,4 it is perhaps unsurprising that gangsters and spies would find themselves brought together in his campaign. It has, after all, become commonplace since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 to characterize the relationship between Russia and the West as some shade of war: economic, political, but typically more than just cold. Indeed, even as he insists that his invasion is not a war, just a ‘special military operation’ (SVO) – actually calling it a ‘war’ can conceivably get Russians a 15-year prison sentence5 – Putin freely uses the term when describing his country’s engagement with the West. However, it is less clearly understood just how significant and long held this view of his may be. In this context, it does seem in hindsight that Putin has considered himself as de facto at war with the West – or, more precisely, that the West has been warring against him – since at least around 2012. After stepping back from the presidency to the position of prime minister in order to observe the letter, if not the spirit, of term limits, all the while clearly still running the country, when Putin announced he would be returning to the Kremlin, this was for many the last straw. Demonstrations that became known as the Bolotnaya Protests were mastered and dispersed, but Putin seems to have been unable or unwilling to accept that they were a genuine, organic expression of dismay. Instead, he chose to see them as spurred by the US Department of State, after then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ‘gave the signal’ to opposition leaders.6 There had been a growing school of thought within Russian security circles that the West was using ‘political technologies’ to topple hostile governments, and support for civil society, democratization and the rule of law were seen as part of this campaign. As a former Kremlin insider put it, Putin was scared, then angry. As far as he was concerned, this was it, this was a sign that the West – the Americans – were coming for him. So he was determined to fight back, and that didn’t just mean defending himself, the repressions and arrests, it meant going on the attack. He was clear, he made it clear to us all: if the West was coming to mess with him, we would mess them up worse, by whatever means necessary.

Russia’s transition from a “conscription state” to a full “mobilization state”, after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, has intensified the involvement of criminal groups in operations tied to sanctions-busting, cyber warfare, and intelligence. Organized crime networks provide Russia with access to restricted goods, such as advanced electronics for its military, and facilitate money laundering and illegal financial flows. Notably, Russian intelligence services have relied on criminal syndicates to supplement their espionage activities, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and assassinations.

The report also highlights Russia’s weaponization of migration, using smuggling networks to create political instability across Europe. Meanwhile, Putin’s regime has blurred the lines between state and criminal actors, using them as tools to evade international sanctions and expand Russian influence globally.

“Gangsters at War” reveals how Russian-based organized crime operates as a tool of Kremlin foreign policy, focusing not just on profits but on weakening geopolitical rivals. From sanctions evasion to destabilizing societies, criminal networks have become a key element in Russia’s geopolitical arsenal. The report calls for increased vigilance, international cooperation, and stronger countermeasures to address this growing threat to global stability

Geneva: Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime.2024. 62p.