By James Austin, Richard Rosenfeld and Todd Clear

Florida has benefited from the national drop in crime that began in the early 1990s. Its growth in incarceration also paralleled the steady national imprisonment rise of the last forty-five years. Florida’s rate peaked around 2010 and has been declining ever since. Policy makers would benefit from defensible projections of future trends in crime, and especially from estimates of the effect that further reductions in the number of people in jail and prison might have on those trends. The authors of this study developed quantitative models—explained here in non-technical language—of the effects of various demographic and economic factors, as well as the imprisonment rate, on Florida’s past crime rates. They then used these models to project crime trends into the 2020s, both with and without the assumption of a substantial reduction in imprisonment.

New York: Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation. 2021, 28pg

By Willis Okumu

Lake Victoria in East Africa is a convergence point for a range of environmental crimes perpetrated by actors who exploit the lake for profit. Fishermen use the water mass not only to legally draw their livelihood but also to profit from overexploitation of the environment through practices such as illegal fishing and sand harvesting. Lack of a unified registration regime for small boats has enabled their use in these illegal activities. A clash in operational mandates of security forces from Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania impedes regional efforts to combat these and other crimes.

Key points • Lake Victoria in East Africa is the site of various environmental crimes such as illegal fishing, sand and charcoal harvesting and timber smuggling. • A range of players, including fishermen and state officials, collude in committing these crimes for profit. • Environmental crimes in the lake are facilitated by a lack of cooperation between Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, whose enforcement units operate under different mandates.

Policy Brief, Issue 29. ENACT Africa. 2024, 14pg

By Manuel Alejandro Salazar Mendoza

In this paper, I use aggregate data from Mexican municipalities to research the effect of shocks on the unemployment rates of Mexican migrants residing in the United States on crime rates in Mexico. Heterogeneous effects are anticipated depending on the migrants’ income level, so the impact of the shocks is studied according to the educational quartile to which they belong as an approximation of their income level. I find that unemployment shocks for migrants in the lowest educational quartile lead to increases in the theft rate, while, for migrants in the highest quartile, shocks are associated with reductions in this rate. These findings inform the literature on economic and migration mechanisms behind crime rates.

Unpublished paper, March. 2024, 46pg

By Feyi Ogunade 

A key premise of this study is that transnational organised crimes (TOCs) violate core human rights norms, principles and values of regional and international human rights instruments, including the Banjul Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. This study examines the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights’ role and work in combating TOCs in Africa. Specifically, it looks at how the Commission has dealt with TOCs within the African human rights system (AfHRS) using its various internal mechanisms, and especially how it has used the African (Banjul) Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (the Charter) to combat TOCs in the region.

   REcommendations: Adopt clear procedures for following up. • Adopt a more systematic and comprehensive approach including guidelines to address the human rights implications of TOCs. • Establish a TOC unit with knowledgeable personnel. • Formally extend its mandate to include TOCs. By aligning the efforts of the Commission with other regional and international initiatives like ECOWAS, African states can strengthen their responses to TOCs, promote accountability and protect the rights of individuals and communities. The Commission should: Recommendations A key premise of this study is that transnational organised crimes (TOCs) violate core human rights norms, principles and values of regional and international human rights instruments, including the Banjul Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. This study examines the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights’ role and work in combating TOCs in Africa. Specifically, it looks at how the Commission has dealt with TOCs within the African human rights system (AfHRS) using its various internal mechanisms, and especially how it has used the African (Banjul) Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights (the Charter) to combat TOCs in the region. 

Research Paper 41

ENACT Africa, 2024. 22p.

By Charles A. Warnock, Ashlin R. Ondrusek, E. Jennifer Edelman, Trace Kershaw, Jessica L. Muilenburg

Cannabis use is increasingly pervasive throughout the U.S. People in treatment for substance use disorders (SUD) may be especially at-risk of harm due to this changing context of cannabis in the U.S. This study’s objective was to qualitatively describe experiences and beliefs around cannabis among people who had entered treatment for any SUD in the past 12-months.

Methods

From May to November of 2022, we conducted 27 semi-structured interviews (n=16 in Georgia, n=11 in Connecticut) with individuals in treatment for SUD in Georgia and Connecticut. Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and thematically analyzed using an emergent approach.

Results

All participants had used cannabis in the past. Four themes emerged from the interviews. Participants: (1) perceived cannabis as an important contributor to non- cannabis substance use initiation in adolescence; (2) viewed cannabis as a substance with the potential to improve health with fewer side effects than prescription medications; (3) expressed conflicting opinions regarding cannabis as a trigger or tool to manage cravings for other non-cannabis substances currently; and 4) described concerns related to negative legal, social service, and treatment-related consequences as well as negative peer perception relating to the use of cannabis.

Conclusion

Although participants described cannabis’s important role as an initiatory drug in adolescence and young adulthood, many felt that cannabis was a medicinal substance for a range of health problems. These findings suggest SUD treatment clinicians should address medicinal beliefs related to cannabis among their clients and emphasizes the need for research on cannabis use and SUD treatment outcomes.

Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports. Online First, March 2024

By Miaomiao Dong Jackie Cha, Yuni Lee Gaojian Huang, et al.

There are direct correlations between drunk driving and car-related injuries, disabilities, and death. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) may provide useful driver support systems to prevent or reduce road accidents. However, AVs are not yet fully automated and require human drivers to take over the vehicle at times. Therefore, understanding how alcohol affects driving performance in both manual and automated driving is important because manual drives may offer insights into the takeover process in AVs. A systematic review of 53 articles from eight databases was conducted. Findings were categorized based on the human information processing model, which can be extended to the AV takeover model. The results demonstrated that different blood alcohol concentration (BAC) levels affect driving performance in various stages of the information processing model and the takeover model. However, existing studies tested limited levels of BAC, and there are few studies on AV takeover performance. Future work may focus on AVs and takeover performance. This review can also provide implications for future driving experiments and AV technology design.

San Jose, CA: Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI), 2024. 28p.

By National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; etc

Facial recognition technology is increasingly used for identity verification and identification, from aiding law enforcement investigations to identifying potential security threats at large venues. However, advances in this technology have outpaced laws and regulations, raising significant concerns related to equity, privacy, and civil liberties.

This report explores the current capabilities, future possibilities, and necessary governance for facial recognition technology. Facial Recognition Technology discusses legal, societal, and ethical implications of the technology, and recommends ways that federal agencies and others developing and deploying the technology can mitigate potential harms and enact more comprehensive safeguards.

Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2024.

By Janos Mark Szakolczai, Ryan Casey, Amy Cullen, Emily Qvist-Baudry and Alistair Fraser

1.1 Overview

In 2022, the Scottish Government commissioned a study of public space closed circuit television (CCTV) in Scotland, which aimed to update baseline evidence of the provision of public space CCTV in Scotland. The study was undertaken by a team of researchers from the University of Glasgow and the University of Edinburgh, with guidance from a Research Advisory Group consisting of key stakeholders in public space CCTV in Scotland.

The study sought to answer the following research questions:

1) What is the current provision of public space CCTV in Scotland and how, and for what purposes, do local authorities and Police Scotland use public space CCTV?

2) How do communities across Scotland perceive the use, effectiveness, and value of public space CCTV in their local communities?

3) What is the provision, delivery, operation, and maintenance of public space CCTV like in similar jurisdictions, and how does this compare with Scotland?

The project involved an in-depth, mixed methods approach to better understand the current provision and use of public space CCTV across Scotland, to assess the perceived use and value of public space CCTV in local communities, and to make international comparisons.

Glasgow: Scottish Government, 2023. 66p.

By Mark Motivans

This report provides national statistics on the federal response to crime for fiscal year 2022 and some statistics on changes over time. The report describes case processing in the federal criminal justice system, including investigations by U.S. attorneys, prosecutions and declinations, convictions and acquittals, sentencing, probation and supervised release, and imprisonment. It is the 36th in an annual series based on data from BJS’s Federal Justice Statistics Program, which began in 1979.

Highlights

• During fiscal year (FY) 2022, federal law enforcement agencies made 96,857 arrests, a 24% increase from the 78,068 arrests in FY 2021.

• In the 26,233 Drug Enforcement Administration arrests in FY 2022, the most common type of drug involved was methamphetamine (8,083 arrests), followed by other opioids, including fentanyl (5,375 arrests).

• Persons exiting federal prison in FY 2022 for nonregulatory public order offenses, including sex offenses, served more time (66 months) than persons exiting for violent offenses (56 months) or drug offenses (53 months).

• The median number of days from the receipt of an investigation to the decision by a U.S. attorney to prosecute or decline a matter was 60 days in FY 2022, down from 70 days in FY 2021.

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, Bureau of Justice Statistics. 2023. 32p

By Sakshi Bhardwaj and Daniel Tabak

This paper investigates the effect of losing welfare benefits on local household financial distress and crime. We estimate this effect using a quasi-experiment in which Indiana outsourced and automated the processing of TANF, food stamps, and Medicaid applications. The welfare automation policy was implemented in three waves prior to its cancellation in 2009, before reaching all counties. Using consumer credit panel data, we explore this variation to find that the Indiana welfare automation program, which reduced enrollment in SNAP and TANF enrollment, significantly increased the number of accounts in collections, collections balances, bankruptcy filings, and decreased credit scores. Using data from the Uniform Crime Reporting series, we find that welfare automation policy has also increased crime, primarily property crimes.

Unpublished paper, 2023.

By The U.S.National Institute of Justice

In NIJ’s new publication Desistance From Crime: Implications for Research, Policy, and Practice, experts explore these and other critical questions surrounding the process of individuals ceasing engagement in criminal activities, referred to as “desistance.” They discuss how to conceptualize and measure desistance and offer innovative ways of using desistance-focused approaches in criminal justice practice, policy, and research.

This collection of work takes important steps in describing how a desistance framework can move the field forward across key decision points in the criminal justice system. As a result, the field will be better positioned to meet the needs of stakeholders, improve individual outcomes, and effectively reduce crime and promote public safety for communities across the United States.

Washington, DC: U.S. National Institute of Justice, 2021. 234p.

By Mathijs Kros, Tjeerd W. Piersma & Karin A. Beijersbergen

This paper investigates criminal career characteristics and trajectories of domestic burglars, residential and commercial robbers, and street robbers in the Netherlands. We used longitudinal data which includes the criminal cases from 1997 until 2020 for all people of 12 years or older. We studied all 89,062 offenders that had at least one criminal case in the period between 2002 and 2004. Semiparametric group trajectory models were used to cluster these offenders into groups with similar criminal careers. Our results suggest that in order to predict who will follow the career path of a life-course persistent offender, it is important to distinguish between specific groups of offenders. Life-course persistent offenders are found amongst domestic burglars, residential and commercial robbers, and street robbers, but not amongst offenders of other types of crime. Furthermore, the size of the group of life-course persistent offenders varies between the domestic burglars, residential and commercial robbers, and street robbers and is largest for domestic burglars. Other criminal career characteristics, such as age of onset, age of termination, duration, and specialisation, are also compared between offender groups.

J Dev Life Course Criminology 9, 379–403 (2023).

By Georg Heiler, Tuan Pham, Jan Korbel, Johannes Wachs & Stefan Thurner

We use a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on criminal acts over 6 years in a European country to study specialization in criminal careers. We present a method to cluster crime categories by their relative co-occurrence within criminal careers, deriving a natural, data-based taxonomy of criminal specialization. Defining specialists as active criminals who stay within one category of offending behavior, we study their socio-demographic attributes, geographic range, and positions in their collaboration networks relative to their generalist counterparts. Compared to generalists, specialists tend to be older, are more likely to be women, operate within a smaller geographic range, and collaborate in smaller, more tightly-knit local networks. We observe that specialists are more intensely embedded in criminal networks, suggesting a potential source of self-reinforcing dynamics in criminal careers.

Scientific Reports 13, 17160 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-43552-6

By Christopher Wildeman

This article provides a critical overview in five stages of roughly 50 years of research on the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact. In the first stage, I document that research on the intergenerational transmission of crime and criminal justice contact focused primarily on crime until the mid-1990s, at which point research rapidly shifted in the direction of criminal justice contact (specifically, incarceration). In the second stage, I document that research on the intergenerational transmission of crime and the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact tended to use the same measures—i.e., self-reported and administrative indicators of criminal justice contact with minimal information on criminal activity—but discussed them in different ways. In the third stage, I review research on the broader effects of incarceration to highlight mechanisms through which parental criminal justice contact may independently influence children’s criminal activity. In the fourth stage, I review research on the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contact. In the final stage, I conclude by calling for new data collection efforts that provide high-quality measures of both crime and criminal justice contact of both parents and children

Annu. Rev. Criminol. 2020. 3:217–4

By Volkan Topalli, Timothy Dickinson, and Scott Jacques

Active offender research relies on the collection of data from noninstitutionalized criminals and has made significant contributions to our understanding of the etiology of serious crime. This review covers its history as well as its methodological, scientific, and ethical pitfalls and advantages. Because study subjects are currently and freely engaging in crime at the time of data collection, their memories, attitudes, and feelings about their criminality and specific criminal events are rich, detailed, and accurate. Contemporary approaches to active offender research employ systematized formats for data collection and analysis that improve the validity of findings and help illuminate the foreground of crime. Although active offender research has traditionally relied on qualitative techniques, we outline the potential for it to make contributions via mixed methods, experiments, and emerging computational and technological approaches, such as virtual reality simulation studies and agent-based modeling.

Annu. Rev. Criminol. 2020. 3:189–215

By: Felix Reer, Ruth Wendt, and Thorsten Quandt

Several cross-sectional studies have shown that online sexual engagement (OSE) in the form of sexting or sexy self-presentation on social media is associated with an increased risk of experiencing negative consequences, such as online sexual victimization (OSV) or lower levels of psychosocial well-being. However, representative and longitudinal studies are scarce. The current study follows three research goals: (1) examining the prevalence of OSE and OSV among a random-quota sample of 1,019 German Internet users aged 14–64 years, (2) examining gender and age-related differences in OSE and OSV, and (3) examining the longitudinal relationships between OSE, OSV, and psychosocial well-being over a period of 1 year. Our results indicate that OSE and OSV are relatively widespread: 17.7% of the participants had already experienced OSV, 25.3% indicated that they had presented themselves online in a sexualized manner at least once in the past 2 months, and 22.7% showed a certain willingness to engage in sexting. We found higher rates among the younger participants. However, to a certain degree, older individuals were also affected. Male participants showed higher sexting willingness and more often presented themselves in a sexualized manner than females, whereas only small differences related to OSV were found. Concerning relationships with psychosocial well-being, our cross-sectional results showed that OSE, OSV, and mental problems are intercorrelated. Furthermore, we detected a significant long-term relationship between higher sexting willingness at time 1 and more victimization experienced 1 year later, whereas no significant longitudinal associations with lower levels of psychosocial well-being were identified.

Front. Psychol., 07 December 2021

By Peng Chen and Justin Kurland

“Strike Hard” is an enhanced law-enforcement strategy in China that aims to suppress crime, but measurement of the crime-reducing effect and potential changes in the spatiotemporal concentration of crime associated with “Strike Hard” remains unknown. This paper seeks to examine the impact, if any, of “Strike Hard” on the spatiotemporal clustering of burglary incidents. Two and half years of residential burglary incidents from Chaoyang, Beijing is used to examine repeat and near-repeat burglary incidents before, during, and after the “Strike Hard” intervention and a new technique that enables the comparison of repeat and near repeat patterns across di erent temporal periods is introduced to achieve this. The results demonstrate the intervention disrupted the repeat pattern during the “Strike Hard” period reducing the observed ratio of single-day repeat burglaries by 155%; however, these same single-day repeat burglary events increased by 41% after the cessation of the intervention. Findings with respect to near repeats are less remarkable with nominal evidence to support that the intervention produced a significant decrease, but coupled with other results, suggest that spatiotemporal displacement may have been an undesired by-product of “Strike Hard”. This study from a non-Western setting provides further evidence of the generalizability of findings related to repeat and near-repeat patterns of burglary and further highlights the limited preventative effects that the “Strike Hard” enhanced law enforcement campaign had on burglary

ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2020, 9, 150

By Michael Zoorob, Daniel T. O'Brien

Crime is highly concentrated at places that lack capable place managers (i.e., landlords and their delegates). In response, numerous cities have instituted problem property interventions that pressure landowners to better manage properties suffering from decay, nuisance, or crime. This approach is distinctive in that it both targets a place and incentivizes those legally responsible to improve its management, yet little is known about the efficacy of such interventions. We assess the short- and long-term impacts of such interventions in Boston, Massachusetts, using matched difference-in-difference analyses. Problem property interventions reduced crime and disorder relative to comparable matched properties. They also led to property investment and landowner turnover, suggesting strengthened place management. In addition, drops in crime and disorder were observed at other properties on the same street, although not at other properties with the same owner throughout the city. This study, therefore, provides evidence that problem property interventions compel landowners to better manage the targeted property and that these effects have a diffusion of benefits on surrounding properties. The effect on place management, however, was limited to the target property and did not reliably generalize to the landowner's other holdings. This study reveals nuance in the ways that problem property interventions can benefit communities.

Criminology, Volume62, Issue1 February 2024 Pages 64-89

By Nick Petersen, Ojmarrh Mitchell, Shi Yan

In recent years, there has been a rise in so-called “progressive prosecutors” focused on criminal justice reforms. Although there has been considerable debate about the relationship between progressive prosecution policies and crime rates, there has been surprisingly little empirical research on the topic. Building on the limited extant research, we examined whether the inauguration of progressive prosecutors in the nation's 100 most populous counties impacted crime rates during a 21-year period (2000 to 2020). After developing an original database of progressive prosecutors in the 100 largest counties, we used heterogeneous difference-in-differences regressions to examine the influence of progressive prosecutors on crime rates. Results show that the inauguration of progressive prosecutors led to statistically higher index property (∼7%) and total crime rates (driven by rising property crimes), and these effects were strongest since 2013—a period with an increasing number of progressive prosecutors. However, violent crime rates generally were not higher after a progressive prosecutor assumed control.

Policy implications

Despite concerns that the election of progressive prosecutors leads to “surging” levels of violence, these findings suggest that progressive-oriented prosecutorial reforms led to relatively higher rates of property crime but had limited impact on rates of violent crime. In fact, in absolute terms, crime rates fell in jurisdictions with traditional and progressive prosecutors. Yet, relative property crime rates were greater after the inauguration of progressive prosecutors. Given that prior research shows progressive prosecutors reduce mass incarceration and racial inequalities, our findings indicate that higher property crime rates may be the price for these advancements.

Criminology & Public Policy Version of Record online: 18 April 2024

By Freya Rock

A Victim Personal Statement (VPS) is submitted by the victim of a crime to the sentencing court to document the physical, emotional, financial, or other impact of the crime. Victim impact statements have become a key element of the sentencing process, although concerns remain about a number of implementation challenges. • The VPS scheme was introduced in England and Wales in 2001 following a commitment in the Victims’ Charter of 1996. The right to submit a VPS is contained in the Victims’ Code. In contrast to other jurisdictions, the right is not currently based in statute. This is set to change with the coming into force of the Victims and Prisoners Bill that is currently passing through Parliament. • Research, including the Victims’ Commissioner’s (2015) study of the VPS scheme in England and Wales, suggests that victim impact statements may improve the proportionality of sentencing outcomes because judges find them helpful in determining the nature and extent of the harm caused. A more accurate calibration of the seriousness of the crime should lead to a more proportionate sentence. • Recent empirical data on the use of VPS are very limited. This restricts the conclusions which may reasonably be drawn about the benefits and burdens/disadvantages of victim impact statements. No data on the volume of victim statements are currently collected by either the Government or the Ministry of Justice, and questions about the VPS have not featured consistently on the Office for National Statistics’ National Crime Survey. • Roberts and Pina-Sanchez’s analyses of Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) data found that across the most recent administrations of the CSEW only 13% recalled receiving an offer. Of the victims who recalled being offered the opportunity to submit a statement, about half (53%) stated they had submitted one. Those who reported having submitted a VPS were asked whether in their opinion the VPS ‘was taken into account by the CJS’. Approximately one-third responded ‘yes, completely’, 30% chose ‘yes, to some extent’ and 34% responded ‘no’. • VPS research should document the reasons behind the low notification and uptake rates. Police officers’ understanding of, and attitudes towards, the VPS should be explored further to ascertain what needs to be done to ensure that the opportunity to submit a VPS is offered to all victims. • Research should explore how Victim Personal Statements are used by sentencers in England and Wales, particularly magistrates. Little is currently known beyond the Victims’ Commissioner’s (2015) finding that sentencers in England and Wales find the statements useful because they help to determine the nature and extent of the harm. • Another priority for future VPS research should be to undertake in-depth qualitative exploration of the reasons why victims in England and Wales choose to submit a VPS and their experiences of doing so. This would involve interviews with victims who have submitted a VPS, ideally before and after the sentencing hearing, to understand their hopes and expectations. • Researchers should also explore the impact the VPS has on the offender. Research has suggested that offenders may appreciate the full consequences of their criminal acts when the victim describes the impact of the crime. Hearing from the person most directly affected may be more meaningful than listening to a prosecutor’s description of the crime.

The Sentencing Academy. 2024, 18pg