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Posts in Public Health
Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment

RAND CORPORATION

From the document: "Global catastrophic and existential risks hold the potential to threaten human civilization. Addressing these risks is crucial for ensuring the long-term survival and flourishing of humanity. Motivated by the gravity of these risks, Congress passed the Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act in 2022, which requires the Secretary of Homeland Security and the administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate an assessment of global catastrophic risk related to a set of threats and hazards. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security Science and Technology Directorate and the Federal Emergency Management Agency requested the Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center's support in meeting this requirement. This report documents findings from our analysis." Authors include: Henry H. Willis, Anu Narayanan, Benjamin Boudreaux, Bianca Espinosa, Edward Geist, Daniel M. Gerstein, Dahlia Anne Goldfeld, Nidhi Kalra, Tom LaTourrette, Emily Lathrop, Alvin Moon, Jan Osburg, Benjamin Lee Preston, Kristin Van Abel, Emmi Yonekura, Robert J. Lempert, Sunny D. Bhatt, Chandra Garber, and Emily Lawson.

RAND CORPORATION. HOMELAND SECURITY OPERATIONAL ANALYSIS CENTER. 30 OCT, 2024.237p.

National Drug Control Strategy [May 2024]

UNITED STATES. OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY

From the document: "America is facing the deadliest drug threat in our history. Over the last 25 years, drug overdose deaths in the United States from synthetic opioids, including fentanyl, have risen to more than 100 times their 1999 levels. The rate of fatal overdoses from other drugs, including cocaine and methamphetamine, has also surged. The overdose crisis calls for bold action. The Office of National Drug Control Policy (ONDCP) has outlined vital steps for attacking two drivers of this crisis. [...] ONDCP's 2024 '[National Drug Control] Strategy' looks to the future this Nation needs. That future is one with greater access to prevention, treatment, harm reduction and recovery support services; with a focus on equity and equal justice; with support for incarcerated individuals, as well as post-incarceration reentry assistance; with a SUD [substance use disorder] and health care workforce that meets our Nation's needs; with a payment system that sufficiently funds care; and with a concerted transnational effort to hold drug traffickers, their enablers, and facilitators accountable. [...] The 2024 'Strategy' is aimed at addressing the overdose crisis from multiple angles. This includes preventing youth substance use, expanding access to life-saving medications like naloxone, expanding access to evidence-based treatment, building a recovery-ready Nation, and ramping up efforts to disrupt and dismantle drug trafficking."

UNITED STATES. WHITE HOUSE OFFICE; UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT; . MAY, 2024. 124p.

Germany's cannabis act: a catalyst for European drug policy reform?

By Jakob Manthey, Jürgen Rehm,and Uwe Vertheina

With the enforcement of the Cannabis Act on 1 April 2024, Germany has adopted one of the most liberal legal approaches to cannabis on the continent. The German model prioritises a non-profit approach and precludes legal market mechanisms. We believe these are the main drivers for increasing cannabis use and related health problems, based on observations following cannabis legalisation in Canada and many states in the U.S. Although legalising cannabis possession and cultivation may not immediately eliminate the illegal market, it is expected to serve public health goals. Despite the overall positive evaluation of the Cannabis Act in Germany, there are three potential areas of concern: the potential for misuse of the medical system, the normalization of cannabis use, and the influence of the cannabis industry. The German model may herald the beginning of a new generation of European cannabis policies, but concerted efforts will be required to ensure that these policy reforms serve rather than undermine public health goals.

The LANCET Regional Health - Europe, Vol 42 July, 2024

World Drug Report 2024

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME

From the webpage description: "A global reference on drug markets, trends and policy developments, the World Drug Report offers a wealth of data and analysis and in 2024 comprises several elements tailored to different audiences. The web-based Drug market patterns and trends [hyperlink] module contains the latest analysis of global, regional and subregional estimates of and trends in drug demand and supply in a user-friendly, interactive format supported by graphs, infographics and maps. The Key findings and conclusions booklet [hyperlink] provides an overview of selected findings from the analysis presented in the Drug market patterns and trends module and the thematic Contemporary issues on drugs booklet, while the Special points of interest [hyperlink] fascicle offers a framework for the main takeaways and policy implications that can be drawn from those findings. As well as providing an in-depth analysis of key developments and emerging trends in selected drug markets, the Contemporary issues on drugs booklet [hyperlink] looks at several other developments of policy relevance. [...] The World Drug Report 2024 is aimed not only at fostering greater international cooperation to counter the impact of the world drug problem on health, governance and security, but also at assisting Member States in anticipating and addressing threats posed by drug markets and mitigating their consequences."

UNITED NATIONS OFFICE ON DRUGS AND CRIME. 2024

CCP's Role in the Fentanyl Crisis

UNITED STATES. CONGRESS. HOUSE. SELECT COMMITTEE ON THE STRATEGIC COMPETITION BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND THE CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY

From the document: "The fentanyl crisis is one of the most horrific disasters that America has ever faced. On average, fentanyl kills over 200 Americans daily, the equivalent of a packed Boeing 737 crashing every single day. Fentanyl is the leading cause of death for Americans aged 18-45 and a leading cause in the historic drop in American life expectancy. It has led to millions more suffering from addiction and the destruction of countless families and communities. Beyond the United States, fentanyl and other mass-produced synthetic narcotics from the People's Republic of China (PRC) are devastating nations around the world. It is truly a global crisis. The PRC, under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), is the ultimate geographic source of the fentanyl crisis. Companies in China produce nearly all of illicit fentanyl precursors, the key ingredients that drive the global illicit fentanyl trade. The House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (Select Committee) launched an investigation to better understand the role of the CCP in the fentanyl crisis. This investigation involved delving deep into public PRC websites, analyzing PRC government documents, acquiring over 37,000 unique data points of PRC companies selling narcotics online through web scraping and data analytics, undercover communications with PRC drug trafficking companies, and consultations with experts in the public and private sectors, among other steps. [...] [T]he Select Committee found thousands of PRC companies openly selling [...] illicit materials on the Chinese internet--the most heavily surveilled country-wide network in the world. The CCP runs the most advanced techno-totalitarian state in human history that 'leave[s] criminals with nowhere to hide' and has the means to stop illicit fentanyl materials manufacturers, yet it has failed to pursue flagrant violations of its own laws."

UNITED STATES. CONGRESS. HOUSE. SELECT COMMITTEE. 16 APR, 2024. 64p.

Illegal synthetic opioids: Can Europe prevent a crisis?

By Mafalda Pardal, Elle Wadsworth, Beau Kilmer

Potent synthetic opioids, illegally produced, are starting to emerge in Europe. Considering the damaging harms caused by the opioid crisis in North America, which has led to a substantial surge in overdose deaths, it is crucial that European leaders understand the challenges associated with synthetic opioids. In this Perspective, we present and discuss the current situation in Europe concerning synthetic opioids, and draw on earlier and ongoing crises involving this group of substances to reflect on likely challenges ahead and ways to improve preparedness.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2024. 20p.

The political economy of illicit drug crops: forum introduction

By Frances Thomson, Patrick Meehan & Jonathan Goodhand (02 Apr 2024):

his article and the forum it introduces examine illicit drug crop (IDC) economies from agrarian perspectives. Examining IDCs as a group implies analysing how prohibition distinguishes them from other (licit) crops. We identify seven mechanisms through which prohibition shapes the agrarian political economy of IDCs and explore how these mechanisms and their effects generate distinctive patterns of development and political action amongst ‘illicit peasantries’. We also examine connections between illicit and licit crops, including how licit crop crises and illicit crop booms intertwine. We argue that IDC economies provide a bulwark for smallholders but are by no means peasant idylls.

The Journal of Peasant Studies. 2024. 39p.

Colombia: Drug smuggling prevention report 2024

By A&A Multiprime

As part of our commitment to contribute to loss prevention in Colombia and across the region, our team regularly engages in meetings with representatives of the Colombian Highest Maritime Authority (DIMAR) and the officers in charge of anti-narcotic policies in the ports. We gather updated informa tion about new practices and precautions to be aware of, as well as relevant recommendations and measures to adopt while visiting any of our ports. This ongoing engagement has culminated in our 2024 report, which reflects the latest insights and strategies in combating the challenges faced by the maritime industry

Recent events highlight the ongoing challenges in countering cocaine trafficking. For example, on February 8, 2024, British authorities announced a historic seizure of over 12,500 pounds of cocaine concealed in a banana shipment from the Port of Turbo, Colombia, to Southampton. This incident, marking the largest single drug seizure in UK history, emphasizes the advanced techniques used by cartels to transport substantial drug quantities into Europe and the UK, thereby confirming the global impact of Colombian narcotics. This report results from our efforts and experience over the last years, successfully assisting in several drug smuggling-related incidents and administrative investigations for breaches of shipping regulations, including the ISPS Code. We trust that this report will serve as a valuable resource for all P&I Clubs, their Members, the Masters and crews, and, in general, the entire marine industry with an interest in Colombian ports to mitigate incidents associated with drug smuggling activities

Bogota: A&A Multiprime. 2024. 18p.

Drug Trafficking on the High Seas: A Primer on the Maritime Drug Law Enforcement Act Brendan McDonald Trial Attorney Criminal Division Narcotic and Dangerous Drug Section

By Colleen King

In December 2023, the United States Coast Guard (USCG) offloaded approximately 18,219 pounds of cocaine from the USCG Cutter Waesche. The estimated street value of the cocaine was more than $239 million. The offload occurred as a result of six separate maritime interdictions, performed by separate cutters, taking place over a 17-day period off the coasts of Mexico and Central and South America. The interdictions were performed as part of the USCG’s counternarcotics mission. While interdictions of this size may seem out of the ordinary, the USCG routinely interdicts a variety of vessels, including Go-Fast Vessels and semi submersibles, with massive amounts of drugs (usually cocaine), moving from the Pacific and Caribbean coasts of South America northward to Mexico, the Caribbean, and eventually the United States. One can imagine that prosecuting interdictions like these may raise a variety of questions: could the United States assert jurisdiction over the suspected traffickers; would the maritime location of the interdiction matter; and would it make a difference if the ship carrying the contraband was flagged—registered—by another country? What about the transit time to a U.S. court for an initial appearance where the interdiction occurred over a thousand miles from the United States? The dizzying array of issues confronting a federal prosecutor following a high seas interdiction may not be typical of land-based legal challenges. Fortunately, a body of both federal law and international authorities is instructive on these questions. The Maritime Drug Law Enforcement Act (MDLEA) is the United States’ principal statute addressing high seas drug trafficking and has supported thousands of prosecutions for decades. The MDLEA, as it re lates to controlled substances,5 prohibits the distribution, manufacture, or possession with intent to distribute or manufacture, controlled sub stances aboard a “covered vessel.” Its prohibitions apply “outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United States,” and include both attempt and conspiracy liability. And, where an interdiction occurs outside of the United States, venue may be appropriate in your district. This article is intended to serve as an MDLEA primer. It will provide a brief his tory of the MDLEA, identify the MDLEA’s core definitional provisions, discuss its key criminal prohibition, detail its jurisdiction and venue pro vision, describe the MDLEA’s position on the use of international law as a defense, and finally, address its sentencing provisions.

March 2024 DOJ Journal of Federal Law and Practice

Oil Theft, Energy Security and Energy Transition in Mexico

By Vlado Vivoda, Ghaleb Krame and Martin Spraggon

Oil theft refers to the exploitation of crude oil or refined petroleum products for criminal purposes. In Mexico, oil theft—referred to as huachicolero—is endemic and widespread. By framing it within the energy security and transition context, this paper offers a new perspective on the problem of oil theft in Mexico. Focusing on crude oil and refined petroleum, the paper demonstrates that Mexico’s energy security—as framed around the 4As (availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptance)—has deteriorated over the past decade. Application of the 4As framework in the Mexican context shows that the increasing frequency of oil theft has contributed to this deterioration. The proposed solution to the energy security and oil theft problems is centred on Mexico moving from gasoline and diesel to electrification in the transportation sector. The paper demonstrates that, while transport electrification in Mexico has been lagging behind other countries, recent developments in the country point to growing momentum among the country’s political and business elites, in tandem with US partners, in support for the energy transition. Areas where further emphasis should be placed to accelerate Mexico’s energy transition in the transportation sector are identified. Finally, the feasibility of and potential limitations associated with implementing the transition are evaluated.

Resources 202312(2), 30; https://doi.org/10.3390/resources12020030

Analysis of female strangulation homicides in King County, Washington, from 1978 to 2022

By 
Richard C Harruff, Robert Johnston, and U L M S Perera 

Asphyxia due to strangulation is an uncommon but important modality of homicide that tends to disproportionately involve female victims. The present study was designed to investigate the circumstances, motivations, and injuries associated with strangulation homicides of females and to measure trends in incidence over time. Electronic records of the King County Medical Examiner's Office in Seattle, Washington, were used to compile a data set of all homicides in King County from 1995 through 2022. A second data set of female homicides due to strangulation was constructed with additional records prior to 1995, supplemented with data abstracted from autopsy reports, and linked to the Washington Attorney General's Office Homicide Investigation Tracking System database. This comprehensive data set was used to analyze demographics, circumstances, motives, and injuries of female strangulation homicides from 1978 through 2016. The results found that, from 1995 through 2022, females accounted for 22.8% of 2394 homicides but 80.3% of strangulation homicides. The average annual rate of all strangulation homicides decreased until 2020. Mean ages of female decedents were 27.7 years in homicides associated with sexual assault, 36.8 years with domestic violence, and 63.9 years with robbery. Lethal assaults most often occurred in private homes, and perpetrators were usually well known to the victim. Injuries included petechiae in 83%; ligature marks in 20%; fingernail marks in 1.4%; hyoid fractures in 23%; and thyroid cartilage fractures in 31%. Fractures were more common in manual strangulation and in decedents of ages over 40 years.

Journal of Forensic Sciences. January 2024, 6pg

Characterizing prescription opioid, heroin, and fentanyl initiation trajectories: A qualitative study

By Tasha Perdue aRobert Carlson bRaminta Daniulaityte cSydney M. Silverstein bRicky N. Bluthenthal dAvelardo Valdez eAlice Cepeda

The purpose of this study is to describe opioid initiation within each of the three waves from the perspective of people who use illicit opioids, with a focus on emerging pathways into fentanyl use. We noted supply-side changes as influencing trajectories in all three waves. However, we also noted differences in the experiences of prescription opioid and heroin initiation, with these trajectories influenced by pharmacological effects, pain management, curiosity, intergenerational use, pricing, and peers. In comparison, most participants were unaware that they were initiating fentanyl, and many reported overdosing with their first use of fentanyl. We identified a trajectory into fentanyl with limited to no prior heroin use among a few participants.

Social Science & Medicine Volume 340. January 2024, 11pg

Drug Trafficking Deterrence Signs and Ohio Schools: A Survey of Ohio Principals

By Peter Leasure


Nearly all states, including Ohio, have laws increasing punishments for drug trafficking in or near schools, though there are long-standing concerns for how these laws function. With a novel inquiry of school leaders, the current study explores whether Ohio schools displayed signage that was viewable by the general public stating that drug traffickers could face enhanced penalties if the conduct occurred on or near school premises. The current study also sought to gauge school principal perception about the deterrence effectiveness of such signs and whether enhanced penalty laws should explicitly require that individuals know they are on or near school premises to receive a penalty enhancement. The results of this survey of Ohio school principals suggested that the vast majority of Ohio schools lack any signage seeking to notify individuals of enhanced penalties for drug trafficking or that generally seek to deter drug trafficking. The results also showed that a majority of Ohio principals believed that the Ohio Revised Code should require that individuals know they are on or near a school's premises to receive increased penalties for drug trafficking (e.g., selling drugs) on or near school premises. Policy recommendations informed by the above findings are discussed.

Drug Enforcement and Policy Center. March 2024, 11pg