By Hestia

.The number of potential victims of modern slavery in the UK is at its highest level since records began in 2009. London is a central hub for modern slavery offences; the Metropolitan Police has identified an increase of 12.6% in cases of modern slavery in London over the last three years. Modern slavery is a constantly evolving crime, with increasingly sophisticated recruitment and exploitation methods contributing to the growth of offences in London and across the UK. Hestia commissioned independent research agency Thinks Insight & Strategy to identify what modern slavery looks like in London today, and how it has changed in recent years. Central to the work was the need to bring the voices of those impacted by modern slavery to the forefront of a much needed conversation about modern slavery in the capital. Thinks Insight & Strategy conducted multi-method primary and secondary research to build a picture of experiences of modern slavery in London and understand public and political perceptions and assumptions. The research included: A scoping review of existing literature and data on modern slavery in the UK, including relevant data from the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) and from the Metropolitan Police (requested via an FOI) on instances of modern slavery in the UK and in London. Qualitative research, including six interviews with Hestia service users who have previously experienced modern slavery in London, one interview with a Hestia representative advocating on behalf of two service users who have experienced modern slavery in London and two interviews with experts in the field of modern slavery. Quantitative research, including a nationally representative online survey of 2,000 members of the UK public (including 265 based in Greater London) and an online survey with 99 MPs, completed prior to the dissolution of Parliament on 30th May 2024. The research found that: Modern slavery offences occur across every region of the UK, including in every London borough and are becoming more frequent. • Three in five (59%) adult potential victims referred to the NRM in 2023 stated they were exploited in the UK. • The number of NRM adult referrals increased by 70% between 2020 and 2023. However, modern slavery does not feel close to home for most. Just a quarter (25%) of the public believe that modern slavery is an issue in their local area. • This rises to 32% amongst those living in London. However, even here the public is underestimating the prevalence of the issue: data from the Metropolitan Police shows that numerous modern slavery offences occurred in every London borough in 2023. • Data shows that in 2023, across adults only, British citizens were the second largest group by nationality amongst adult victims of modern slavery (behind Albanians). However, only 10% of the public agrees that British citizens are one of the most likely nationalities to become victims of modern slavery. Despite low understanding of the issue, the public lacks confidence that enough is being done to prevent modern slavery and to protect those impacted. • Seven in ten (71%) agree that more attention should be given to the issue of modern slavery in the UK. • Prevention is high on the public agenda: 8 in 10 (81%) agree that the UK Government should do more to deter traffickers and those who commit modern slavery offences. • Similar proportions (78%) also agree that the UK Government should do more to support those who have experienced modern slavery. While the public want to see the Government take more action to prevent and support victims of modern slavery, MPs remain divided on whether new UK legislation will have an impact. • Just under half (47%) of MPs think new UK legislation (such as the Illegal Migration Act and the Nationality and Borders Act, and Safety of Rwanda Act) will not significantly reduce modern slavery in the UK, and 45% agree that new UK legislation will not deter traffickers1. • Labour MPs are significantly more likely to think that new UK legislation will not have an impact on reducing modern slavery and deterring traffickers than Conservative MPs. Note that fieldwork with MPs was carried out in May 2024, before policies like the Safety of Rwanda Act were axed by the current Government.

London: Hestia, 2024. 28p.

By Yennesit Palacios Valencia and Ignacio García Marín

Colombia is among the countries with the highest levels of violence and crime in the world, despite the peace agreements between the State and different armed groups, including the FARC. This is partly due to the fact that the Colombian case is complex and multifaceted because of the variety of participants in the armed conflict context and due to the mutation of new actors, under the modality of organized crime. Based on the above, the objective is to study the Colombian reality, contextually and diachronically, from theoretical and epistemological elements to demonstrate how violence and criminality factors intersect in the context of the armed conflict. The study concludes, among other findings, that in Colombia the ambiguity and the multiplicity of terms used to name the emerging criminal groups presents a legal problem because of their hybrid composition and regarding their treatment within or outside of the armed conflict.   

Dossiê - Criminalidade, Justiça e Estado-nação no Brasil e na América Latina • Tempo 29 (3) • Sep-Dec 2023 

By Karl Dodd, Paul M. Salmon, Colin Solomon, Scott McLea

Background: Sporting organisations and governing bodies are facing increased pressure to prevent child sexual abuse (CSA) in sport. This has led to an increase in investigative reports into CSA that include recommendations on how sporting organisations could improve child safeguarding. Current peer reviewed literature on the prevention of CSA in sport, indicates that the majority of research has been on interventions at the levels of the victim and perpetrator, rather than on broader components of the sports system. However, it is not clear whether this is the case in investigative reports. Objective:  The aim of this study was to analyse investigative reports into CSA in five Australian sports (Swimming, Cricket, Gymnastics, Football, and Tennis), to evaluate the extent to which a systems thinking approach was adopted to understand the broader systemic factors enabling CSA in sport.  Method: Factors enabling CSA detailed in the reports, as well as their accompanying recommendations, were mapped to a systems thinking-based framework. The identified enabling factors and recommendations were then evaluated to determine the extent to which a whole of systems focus had been adopted in the investigative reports. Results: In total, 30 enabling factors to CSA were identified, with the majority focused at the higher levels of the sports system (e.g., Governance, Policy, Reporting/Handling issues etc.). This contrasts with the peer reviewed literature. Conclusions: The findings indicate that the identified enabling factors to CSA align with a systems thinking approach, whereas the recommendations to safeguarding partially adhere to the tenets of system thinking.

By Luana Marques-Garcia Ozemela,  A lessandra Conte, Guilherme Sedlaceck, Leopoldo Laborda

We test for racial differences in crime victimization between whites and Afro-descendants in the form of thefts, robberies, sexual and physical assaults and police aggressions in Brazil. We explore the presence of skin color tone bias in victimization by the police. Methods With a novel dataset produced by the Ministry of Justice of Brazil in 2012, we use 6 different logit regression models to estimate marginal effects. We found that the probabilities of thefts and verbal aggressions by the police, even after controlling for all the considered individual and community variables, are higher for Afro-descendants. African descent women are more likely to be victims of theft and physical aggression by the police, while white women are more likely to be robbed. In the case of men, Afro-descendants have higher probabilities of being victims of thefts, robberies and verbal aggressions by the police. Regarding skin color bias, the probability of verbal and physical victimization by the police is higher for darker skin individuals. Because of its strategic importance to citizen security policy-making, further race-based data collection is needed, as well as research on the effectiveness of police targeting practices.

Washington DC: IDB, 2019. 37p.

By Spencer Chainey Nathalie Alvarado Rodrigo Serrano–Berthet

Hot spots policing (HSP) is an effective approach for decreasing crime. This guide is designed to help police agencies better understand and make practical use of this policing strategy. The guide explains how HSP works in helping to decrease crime, and describes the processes involved in implementing a successful program in Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC). It also offers practical advice on how to address many of the challenges involved in implementing HSP, how to evaluate its impact, and how to complement it with other policing approaches to help sustain decreases in crime. Included throughout the publication are case studies from the region that help illustrate how HSP is applied. The guide also answers questions that are often asked about HSP, such as issues associated with the displacement of crime.

Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank - IDB 2024. 149p.

By Simone Cecchini and Jorge Martínez Pizarro

In Latin America and the Caribbean, where every country is a country of origin, destination, return or transit, international migration is becoming ever more complex and intensive. Migratory flows are increasingly characterized by irregularity; and migrants represent one of the most vulnerable population groups, as victims of stigmatization, discrimination, xenophobia and racism. However, migrants contribute to sustainable development through work, entrepreneurship, remittances and tax payments, in addition to their culture. To enhance these contributions, public policies and migration governance are needed at the multilateral, national and local levels, based on the interaction between migration and development and fulfilment of the countries’ human rights obligations.

CEPAL Review No. 141 • December 2023

By the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

The Americas have the highest regional homicide rate in the world, and high rates of homicidal violence related to organized crime. This research brief, excerpted from the UNODC Global Study on Homicide 2023, notes several recurrent patterns with respect to factors shaping criminal homicides in Latin America and the Caribbean: › Homicides related to organized crime and gangs are significantly more volatile than homicides perpetrated by intimate partners or other family members. › Subregions, countries and cities with a high homicide rate tend to be associated with a larger proportion of firearm-related homicide. › Settings with a high homicide rate also typically report a large proportion of homicides involving male victims. › High homicide rates are also usually associated with a proportionately higher number of homicides related to organized crime. Where there is a higher density of criminal organizations, there is a higher risk of homicidal violence. › Drug markets alone do not predict homicide but they are frequently associated with lethal violence, especially in the context of multiple competing criminal factions. Amid mounting public concern with violent crime and low trust in police, some Latin American and Caribbean governments are enacting “states of emergency” in response to organized crime and violent gangs. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has expressed concern about the human rights impacts of states of emergency introduced to address organized crime and violence1, while the Secretary-General’s New Agenda for Peace policy brief 2 notes that over-securitized responses can be counterproductive and can reinforce the very dynamics they seek to overcome, as their far-reaching consequences – blowback from local populations, human rights violations and abuses, exacerbation of gender inequalities and distortion of local economies – can be powerful drivers for recruitment into terrorist or armed groups.  

Vienna: UNODC, 2024. 42p.

By Michael J. Zoorob, ; Ju Nyeong Park, ; Alex H. Kral,  et alBarrot H. Lambdin, PhD3; Brandon del Pozo, PhD, MPA, MA1,2

IMPORTANCE-  With the implementation of Measure 110 (M110) in 2021, Oregon became the first US state to decriminalize small amounts of any drug for personal use. To date, no analysis of the association of this law with overdose mortality has fully accounted for the introduction of fentanyl—a substance that is known to drive fatal overdose—to Oregon’s unregulated drug market. OBJECTIVE -  To evaluate whether the decriminalization of drug possession in Oregon was associated with changes in fatal drug overdose rates after accounting for the rapid spread of fentanyl in Oregon’s unregulated drug market. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In this cohort study, the association between fatal overdose and enactment of M110 was analyzed using a matrix completion synthetic control method. The control group consisted of the 48 US states and Washington, DC, all of which did not decriminalize drugs. The rapid spread of fentanyl in unregulated drug markets was determined using the state-level percentage of all samples reported to the National Forensic Laboratory Information System that were identified as fentanyl or its analogues. Mortality data were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2022. Data analysis was performed from fall 2023 through spring 2024. EXPOSURES Measure 110 took effect in Oregon on February 1, 2021. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome assessed was fatal drug overdose rates per half-year. A changepoint analysis also determined when each state experienced a rapid escalation of fentanyl in its unregulated drug market. RESULTS In this analysis, rapid spread of fentanyl in Oregon’s unregulated drug supply occurred in the first half of 2021, contemporaneous with enactment of M110. A positive crude association was found between drug decriminalization and fatal overdose rate per 100 000 per half year (estimate [SE], 1.83 [0.47]; P < .001). After adjusting for the spread of fentanyl as a confounder, the effect size changed signs (estimate [SE], −0.51 [0.61]; P = .41) and there was no longer an association between decriminalization and overdose mortality in Oregon. Sensitivity analyses were consistent with this result. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this cohort study of fatal drug overdose and the spread of fentanyl through Oregon’s unregulated drug market, no association between M110 and fatal overdose rates was observed. Future evaluations of the health effects of drug policies should account for changes in the composition of unregulated drug markets.

  JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(9):e2431612. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.3161

By The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Focus on Illicit Payments: The document examines transnational bribery in the context of international investment agreements (IIAs) and other related instruments, highlighting efforts to combat corruption at various levels.

Legal Definitions and Jurisdiction: It discusses the legal definition of bribery, the role of public officials, and the complexities of jurisdiction and international cooperation in addressing transnational bribery.

Enforcement and Sanctions: Emphasis is placed on the enforcement of anti-bribery laws and the sanctions imposed on those involved incorrupt practices, including the responsibilities of transnational corporations (TNCs).

Policy Options: The document outlines policy options for addressing illicit payments in IIAs, ranging from non-inclusion to substantive provisions that tackle transnational bribery issues comprehensively.

United Nations, 2001 , 101 pages

May Contain Markup

By Susan Pozo

Types of Underground Economy: The underground economy includes unrecorded legal activities,illegal activities, and uncompensated legal activities.

Measurement Methods: Various methods are used to estimate the sizeof the underground economy, such as the income-expenditure approach,tax compliance studies, and labor market studies.

Illegal Markets: The document discusses the price behavior in illegal markets, including drug markets and black markets in foreign exchange.

Illegal Immigration: It covers the geographic distribution,wage volatility, and exploitation of illegal immigrants.

Avebury, 1996, 103 pages

By The Institute for Strategic Dialogue

In the last year, a loose network of actors from Bordeaux to Toulouse to Paris targeted drag events aimed at all-ages audiences for protest, harassment, and abuse. The behaviors and dynamics observed among these actors echo and mirror those observed in other parts of the world, particularly the US. While anti-drag action in France remains marginal compared to the activity witnessed in the US, UK, and Australia, it nonetheless emerged as a phenomenon from a standing start in 2022. March 2023 saw the nation’s first in-person protest at an all-ages drag event in Paris, and two months later a far-right group protested with banners and a smoke bomb outside of a library hosting a drag queen story hour (DQSH) for children in the small village of Saint-Senoux. A seemingly unlikely group of actors is leading this charge. The French anti-gender movement, which was at the heart of the movement against equal marriage in the early 2010s, has been joined by far-right parties and politicians, extremist groups, COVID-19 skeptics, and assorted conspiracy theorists. All are seeking to cancel drag events through tactics of protest, petitions, harassment, misinformation, and intimidation. This briefing provides an in-depth analysis of five cases of anti-drug mobilization in the period December 2022 – May 2023, using a combination of ethnographic methods and social media data analysis to examine activity related to each case. The first was in Bordeaux, the second in Lamballe-Armor, the third in Toulouse, the fourth in Paris, and the fifth in Saint-Senoux. While the earlier campaigns largely manifested online with limited in-person mobilization, the two most recent events saw increased offline activity. This report aims to summarise the key narratives, tactics, and actors involved in anti-drag action in France, and how these mobilizations are tied to anti-LGBTQ+ activity in France more broadly. However, given the small number of instances of anti-drug activism in France, the conclusions of this report are indicative and tentative.

London: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 24p.

By Clara Martiny, Terra Rolfe, Bilen Zerie, Aoife Gallagher and Helena Schwertheim

ISD sought to understand how Online Gender-Based Violence (OGBV) affects South African women, focusing on the experience of women politicians, candidates, and political figures during one of South Africa’s most historic general elections in May 2024. ISD analysts used a combination of qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, interviews with experts, and knowledge drawn from online and in-person workshops. Specifically, three online case studies looked at abusive content, gendered disinformation, and harassment targeting women politicians on TikTok, X (formerly Twitter), and Facebook.

ISD’s analysis found that South African women in politics often face abuse online in the form of replies or comments to their posts or content about them. Misogynistic actors tend to target their physical attributes, intelligence, and ability to lead. They also often engage with gendered disinformation narratives that sexualize or objectify women. While the legislative frameworks in South Africa are progressive and comprehensive, enforcement is difficult and many women are unaware of the resources available to them. Social media platforms also have policies that address OGBV and gendered disinformation but their enforcement is weak, especially outside of English language content.

Amman Berlin London Paris Washington D C: Institute for Strategic Dialogue, 2024. 37p.

By Kaleb Byars

Despite recent Congressional hearings and public attention, the question of how to fairly and efficiently punish recidivist organizational offenders remains unresolved. Any discussion regarding the most optimal legal response to recidivist organizational crime is incomplete without a solution accounting for the use of organizational deferred prosecution agreements ("DPAs") and non-prosecution agreements ("NPAs"). These tools allow criminal defendants to resolve charges without sustaining convictions that attach to the defendants' criminal records, and they are used often in the organizational context. This Article is the first to recognize that the federal sentencing scheme fails to promote deterrence and fairness in the context of organizational sentencing and is the first to offer a practical solution to this problem. The federal sentencing scheme currently does not require an increase in an organizational defendant's sentence when the defendant previously executed DPAs or NPAs before its subsequent criminal conduct. Yet the federal sentencing guidelines do require an increase in an individual defendant's sentence if the individual previously executed a DPA. Meanwhile, the existence of prior DPAs and NPAs is a hallmark of organizational recidivism that demonstrates an organization is more culpable than other organizational defendants. Accordingly, this Article recommends that the Sentencing Commission amend the federal sentencing guidelines to require sentencing courts to increase organizations’ sentences based on prior DPAs and NPAs. This Article offers specific amendments for consideration. Finally, until the sentencing guidelines are amended, sentencing courts can use tools already in place to begin imposing more fair organizational sentences.

Unpublished paper, 2024.Byars, Kaleb, Recidivist Organizational Offenders and the Organizational Sentencing Guidelines (August 12, 2024).

By Nicole M. Smith, Kady Seguin, U. Mete Saka, Sebnem Duzgun, Ashley Smith-Roberts, David Soud, Jenna White

Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for many industries along gold supply chains, including gold refiners and jewelry retailers. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, discrepancies in reported trade data, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that certain portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, some types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global gold trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 42–59. 2024

By Fabian Zhilla

This study asserts that the repatriation of foreign fighters from the conflict in Ukraine poses a significant threat to the peace and stability of Southeast Europe within the realm of organized crime. It contends that Southeast Europe serves as fertile ground for foreign fighters during times of war crises, facilitating their exploitation by organized crime for illicit purposes. Regarding the context of Southeast Europe, the study argues, firstly, that serious organized crime groups demonstrate a propensity to recruit individuals with military experience. Secondly, it underscores the historical roots of foreign fighters presence in the region, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lastly, it highlights the inadequate response and policies at both national and European Union levels to address this concern in the region.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 30–41. 2024.

Edited By Knut Rio, Michelle MacCarthy, Ruy Blanes

This book presents fresh ethnographic work from the regions of Africa and Melanesia—where the popularity of charismatic Christianity can be linked to a revival and transformation of witchcraft. The volume demonstrates how the Holy Spirit has become an adversary to the reconfirmed presence of witches, demons, and sorcerers as manifestations of evil. We learn how this is articulated in spiritual warfare, in crusades, and in healing or witch-killing raids. The contributors highlight what happens to phenomena that people address as locally specific witchcraft or sorcery when re-molded within the universalist Pentecostal demonology, vocabulary, and confrontational methodology.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2017. 311p.

By Asian Racing Federation

The ARF’s latest compendium of 2 major reports and 18 articles collates the Council’s latest research on the threat of illegal betting markets to the integrity of racing and other sports. From February 2023to April 2024, the ARF Council's Bulletins have been shedding light on the ways technological breakthroughs can be exploited by organized crime, all of which are now included in one edition.

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2024. 192p.

By Asian Racing Federation

This report examines Mainland China’s crackdown on illegal betting from 2018 to mid-2021, its background, purpose and impact. It is based on official announcements and statistics, 315 Mainland Chinese media articles related to illegal betting, and English-language reports. The report details:

·         Why China is so concerned about illegal betting

·         Insights into the scale of the problem

·         The crackdown’s impact on wider illegal betting in Asia

·         Notable shared characteristics of illegal betting operations

·         Why China’s crackdown is relevant to other jurisdictions

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2021. 14p.

By Erica Gaston and Fiona Mangan

Reconceptualize peace operation tools in ways that would better respond to transnational organized crime, including elevating it as a priority task or considering transnationally operational missions. Position UN entities and missions for more informed political economy-focused responses, including through cultivating staff expertise related to anti-corruption and financial crime, and improving whole-of-mission intelligence capacity. Protect and reinforce transnational monitoring and enforcement tools, including revamping sanctions regimes, protecting and buttressing panels of experts, and supporting civil society or private sector information flows and watchdog activities. Consider issues related to organized crime and trafficking in prevention and peacebuilding, including national prevention strategies, mediation and good offices, and peacebuilding forums and programming  

 New York: United Nations University, Centre for Policy Research, 2024. 15p.  

By Peter Leasure

While some have argued that drug-induced homicide laws were largely meant to target higher-level drug dealers, others have pointed out that most drug-induced homicide prosecutions have involved low-level dealers as well as family and friends of victims. However, no research has formally explored public opinion about whether there should be differing levels of culpability in drug-induced homicide scenarios. This study examined whether perceived culpability levels in a drug-induced homicide situation differed by race and factual scenario. We utilized an experimental information provision survey sent to heads of households in South Carolina. There were two randomized treatments. The first treatment was race (White and African American). Participants were randomly assigned scenarios with two White individuals, two African American individuals, or one White and one African American individual. The second treatment randomly assigned participants to one of two factual scenarios. In the first scenario, participants received a fact pattern where both individuals (trafficker and user/victim) had an existing friendship, and the trafficker was not a traditional drug dealer. In the second scenario, participants received a fact pattern where there was no existing friendship, and the trafficker was a traditional drug dealer. Our results showed large and statistically significant differences between scenarios that involved a friend relationship and a dealer relationship. Specifically, respondents who received the dealer scenarios were far more likely to assign culpability. Additionally, our results did not indicate levels of culpability assignment that were significantly (statistically) higher for African American traffickers when compared to White traffickers. Relevant decision-makers may want to consider policies or formal laws that recognize public opinion favoring lower culpability levels for traffickers in drug-induced homicide scenarios that are not traditional dealers.

Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 828 Drug Enforcement and Policy Center, February 2024