By Lucy Hovil, Sasha Jesperson and Jennifer Vallentine, with assistance from Julia Litzkow, Maël Galisson and Hugo Eduardo Jovel Majano

Against the backdrop of increasingly restrictive policies, this study explores recent irregular migration dynamics to the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom(UK). The study combined desk research with 43 key informant interviews and 52 in-depth interviews with migrants in Europe who had travelled between mid-2023 and the time of the interview in 2024. It focuses on three key routes into the EU, including the Central Mediterranean route (CMR), the two major routes into Spain – the Western Mediterranean route (WMR) and the Northwest African (Atlantic route) – as well as the English Channel crossing into the United Kingdom1, to understand how migration and smuggling dynamics have shifted since 2023, as well as the impact of these shifts on people on the move. It also considers the trends and changes that may continue to emerge in the face of increasing migration restrictions in Europe. Key findings Despite a downturn in arrivals between 2023 to 2024, the demand for irregular migration remains strong Overall, the numbers of arrivals into Europe in 2024 was lower than in 2023. However, the drivers of migration remain strong, and the hostile environment toward migrants in transit countries also continues to rise. As a result, demand for irregular migration continues, as do movements across the Mediterranean and Atlantic into the EU, and across the channel into the UK. The recent decline in numbers is likely indicative of a short-term fluctuation, rather than the beginning of the end of irregular sea movements to the EU. The push to attempt the Mediterranean or Atlantic crossing to the EU is likely to remain constant – if not grow. There have been considerable fluctuations across the major routes into the European Union; as one route declines, others surge or re-emerge An overall decrease in numbers between 2023 and 2024 was aided by decreased movements along the Western Mediterranean and Central Mediterranean Routes. However, simultaneously there were upticks in movements along the Atlantic route, English Channel crossing and Eastern Mediterranean route2. Figures towards the end of 2024 on the CMR also suggest an upwards trend that may continue into 2025. While politicians have claimed that the various agreements and policies implemented in 2023 and 2024 appear to have successfully reduced arrivals, along the CMR in particular, it still remains the most frequented irregular sea route into mainland Europe. Further, other routes, for example the Atlantic route, have (re)emerged. Historically the CMR has seen fluctuations indicating it could easily increase once more, exactly as it did from 2021 onwards after the previous big decrease post-2017. Smuggling operations continue to adapt (and thrive) in the face of policy changes Smuggling networks are agile and adaptable, deploying new strategies to circumvent counter-smuggling initiatives. Instead of extinguishing supply, stricter policies, particularly on the CMR, English Channel and Atlantic routes, have resulted in increasingly adaptive and professionalised smuggler operations. While the WMR has been the least prominent route between 2023 and 2024, smuggling networks have not disappeared. Instead, they have diversified their operations, with evidence of involvement in other criminal activity, to ensure a continued income stream. This suggests that smuggler networks could easily be ready to return to, or expand migrant smuggling if demand returns. Hardline policies have not prevented irregular migration and only heightened risks for migrants Policy approaches across Europe continue to be led by political pressure to be seen as ‘tough on migration’, leading to prioritising the control of movement and anti-smuggling measures over the creation of legal pathways and the protection of those moving. From the perspective of migrants, there is little evidence to suggest that deterrence policies do, indeed, deter people from seeking to move to Europe irregularly. As demand for irregular migration remains, migrants are likely to be more reliant on smugglers, as a way to bypass restrictions. The impact of restrictive policies on migrants is that sea crossings are taking longer, migrants are taking more circuitous journeys to avoid detection, and larger numbers are being crammed into boats lacking adequate safety equipment by unscrupulous smugglers. In addition to the risks at sea, migrants face increasingly hostile conditions when stuck in key transit countries, as those countries receive continued pressure from the EU to curb movements.

Denmark: Mixed Migration Centre (2025) 36p.

By ioleta Moreno-Lax EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service

This study constitutes a targeted substitute impact assessment of the Commission's proposal for a revised Facilitation Directive (COM(2023) 755), presented on 28 November 2023 as part of a package to address migrant smuggling. It provides a critical review of the existing legal and policy framework at EU level and its shortcomings regarding transposition and implementation. It also undertakes a critical and thorough appraisal of the proposed objectives and measures in terms of coherence, effectiveness and efficiency, including with a view to assessing the adequacy of the interplay between this proposal and the related draft regulation on enhancing police cooperation (COM(2023) 754). It highlights the misalignment of the proposal with relevant international and key European Union legal standards. It raises concerns about definitional issues, the lack of sufficient human rights safeguards, and the absence of a clear distinction between facilitation offences and the legitimate provision of services and humanitarian assistance. The study also examines the legality and proportionality of the proposed measures and stresses the need for a thorough evaluation of wider impacts on civic space and democracy at large.

Brussels: EPRS | European Parliamentary Research Service, 2025. 120p.

By Baroness Bertin

The Independent Pornography Review is an assessment of the legislation, regulation and enforcement of pornography. The review provides recommendations for government, regulatory bodies, and the sector to ensure that harmful impacts of pornography are addressed.

London: Department for Science, Innovation and Technology2025. 215p.

By Human Rights Watch

  Over the last year, over half a million people have crossed the Darién Gap, a swampy jungle between Colombia and Panama, on their journey north, often to the United States. Venezuelans, Haitians, and Ecuadorians, but also people from other regions like Asia and Africa, risk their lives in this difficult terrain. “This Hell Was My Only Option”: Abuses Against Migrants and Asylum Seekers Pushed to Cross the Darién Gap, the first in a series of Human Rights Watch reports on migration via the Darién Gap, documents how a lack of safe and legal pathways has pushed migrants and asylum seekers fleeing human rights crises in Latin America to cross the Darién Gap. Data analyzed in the report suggests restrictions on movement to Mexico and Central America, often promoted by the US government, have contributed to sharp increases in the number of people crossing the Darién Gap, exposing them to abuses, including rape, and empowering organized crime in the area. Whether seeking international protection or economic opportunities, asylum seekers and migrants deserve safe, orderly, and dignified paths to make their claims or to offer their skills. In all cases, they are entitled to safety and respect for their human rights during their journey.   

New York: Human Rights Watch, 2023. 68p.

Edited by Marijke Malsch and Janine Janssen

Sex work is often called the oldest profession in the world. It manifests itself in a plethora of forms. A move to private locations is now taking place: contacts are established via the Internet and meetings take place at appointed places. This makes it more difficult to monitor forced work, and exploitation therefore risks remaining undetected. This book presents empirical findings regarding exploitation in various countries, considering sex workers, traffickers and clients, and the fight against human trafficking. Countries differ vastly in their legislative approaches, ranging from highly repressive to very liberal. This volume asks whether the ongoing process of making and changing laws is sufficiently effective in fighting human trafficking. Other interventions could obtain better outcomes, such as promoting more independence among women and helping trafficked individuals to get out. Less ideology and more attention to the facts of exploitation and sex work might help to achieve these aims.

Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2025. 313p.

By Jason Douglas Porter

Classical Athenian slavery is often discussed as a single phenomenon and Athens’ enslaved as a unitary group. Yet the single legal status that the enslaved shared often obscures the very different characteristics of slavery evident in our evidence. This book provides a nuanced picture of Athenian slavery and its consequences from the perspective of slaveholding strategies, evidencing the varying ways in which Athenian slave owners employed their enslaved and the different methods of social control they utilised to do so. This approach, drawn from the work of historian Joseph Miller, eschews static definitions of ‘the institution of slavery’, in favour of a more dynamic progression of varied, though interrelated, phenomena. Applying this methodology to classical Athenian evidence sheds light on the complexity of the city state's slave system and explicates the wide variations in the lives of Athenian slaves. Jason Douglas Porter furthers academic understanding of the complex relationships between slavery, Athenian society and economy through recognising the diverse motivations and contexts that drove these varied forms of exploitation.

Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2025. 249p

By Ethan B. Kapstein† Adityamohan Tantravah

Among its many deleterious effects on social well-being, violent conflict can undermine the economies
of the countries in which it is ongoing. From a macroeconomic perspective, internal conflict can lead
to reduced investment, output, and growth. We show that it can also increase the borrowing costs on
government-issued debt. Specifically, we examine the effects of drug-related homicides on the spread
between the monetary policy rate and short-term Mexican treasury bills, called ”CETES,” during the
period 2010-2017. We show that homicides have a statistically significant effect on the spread, and in
drawing a connection between violence and interest rates, we make a novel contribution to the literature
on the macroeconomic effects of conflict.

Princeton, NJ: ESOC Working Paper No. 26). Empirical Studies of Conflict Project, 2021. 22p.

By Sébastien Hervieu

Born in the chaotic days after the disputed election of 2010, violent youth gangs, dubbed microbes by the local population, terrorised the streets of the poorest areas of Côte d’Ivoire’s capital. Marginalised and deprived of hope, these microbes are easy prey for the vié pères who run the criminal economy of the city, especially its drug markets. They are also used by politicians to intimidate opposition supporters. Attempts to reintegrate them into society have been few and largely unsuccessful. Although the microbe phenomenon appears to be declining, its extent is still worrying and helps to shape Abidjan’s urban illicit markets. Key findings • The microbe gangs emerged in Abobo and Attécoubé, two of Abidjan’s most deprived neighbourhoods, following Alassane Ouattara’s inauguration in April 2011 and are characterised by extreme violence. • Their emergence is linked to impoverished informal settlements and fractured communities resulting from uncontrolled urban expansion. • The youth gangs have a significant impact on local illicit markets and politics. They are used by local mafia groups, including as drug dealers and enforcers against rivals, and by political figures to disrupt opponents’ events and attack rivals during electoral campaigns. • Former gang members are reportedly gaining seniority within criminal networks.

ENACT Africa, 2022. 16p.

By The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF)

USCIRF’s groundbreaking report examines the enforcement of blasphemy laws worldwide. Blasphemy laws criminalize expressions that insults or offends religious doctrines. Focusing on five-year period of 2014 to 2018, this report provides extensive data and illustrative examples to demonstrate the plethora of ways that governments’ enforcement of blasphemy laws undermines human rights, including freedom of religion or belief and freedom of expression.

Key findings from this study include the following:

There are 84 countries across the globe with criminal blasphemy laws on the books as of 2020.

Researchers, using publicly available sources, found 732 reported blasphemy-related incidents from 2014-2018 across 41 countries, or 49%, of countries with criminal blasphemy laws.

Of those 732 incidents, 674 were reported cases of state criminal blasphemy law enforcement. Of the 674 cases of state enforcement, mob activity, violence, or threats occurred in 78 cases.

81% of the cases of state enforcement were in only 10 of the countries: Pakistan, Iran, Russia, India, Egypt, Indonesia, Yemen, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

Together, the Asia-Pacific and Middle East regions accounted for 84% of the world’s enforcement of blasphemy laws.

In 43, or 51%, of these 84 countries, researchers did not find a single case of enforcement of criminal blasphemy laws. Researchers found no reported cases of state enforcement of criminal blasphemy laws in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Of the 732 incidents, 58 were incidents of mob activity, violence, or threats around blasphemy allegations that occurred in situations where there was no state enforcement of the blasphemy law.

Nearly 80% of the incidents of mob activity, violence, or threats (with or without state enforcement), took place in only four of the countries: Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Egypt.

In just over half the cases of state enforcement, news reports identified the religion or belief of the accused. Of those cases, Muslims accounted for more than half (56%) of the persons arrested, prosecuted, and/or punished for alleged blasphemy crimes. Other groups frequently targeted for criminal blasphemy law enforcement, where identified, included: Christians (25%), Atheists (7%), Baha’is (7%), and Hindus (3%).

More than one-quarter (27%) of reported cases implicated alleged blasphemous speech posted on social media platforms.Washi

Washington, DC: United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, 100p.

By Julius Rogenhofer

Decisiveness and Fear of Disorder examines how democratic representatives make decisions in crisis situations. By analyzing parliamentary asylum debates from Germany’s Asylum Compromise in 1992-1993 and the 2015-2016 refugee crisis, Julius Rogenhofer identifies representatives’ ability to project decisiveness as a crucial determinant for whether the rights and demands of irregular migrants were adequately considered in democratic decision-making. Both crisis situations showcase an emotive dimension to the parliamentary meaning-making process. As politicians confront fears of social and political disorder, they focus on appearing decisive in the eyes of the public and fellow representatives, even at the expense of human rights considerations and inclusive deliberation processes. Rogenhofer shows how his theoretical approach allows us to reinterpret a range of crisis situations beyond the irregular migration context, including democracies’ initial responses to Covid-19, the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, and United States climate politics. These additional case studies help position concerns with decisiveness amid the challenges that populism and technocracy increasingly pose to representative democracies.

Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2024, 209p.

Edited by Ewald Frie, Thomas Kohl and Mischa Meier

Why do things change at certain times and not at others? The contributions collected in this volume approach this question from the perspective of threat. Defined as the self-alerting which goes on within societies and social groups, threats open up windows of opportunity for change – though not always the ones hoped for by those who raised the alarm in the first place. But once threatened, social orders previously taken for granted become visible, debateable and therefore changeable. Looking at the relationship between threat and social change with thematic, spatial and temporal foci, the contributions of this five-section volume treat topics ranging from systems of belief in Ancient Europe to droughts in twentieth century Australia, from medieval urban riots to organized crime and peaceful protest nowadays.

Mohr Siebeck, 2024. 261p.

By Hanna Pfeifer

This book presents a thought-provoking challenge to the commonly held belief that Islamists uniformly reject the Western-dominated world order. In the wake of George W. Bush's declaration of a "global war on terror" in 2001, Islamists have often been associated with violence, opposition to liberal values, and the disruption of order. However, a closer examination reveals that only a fraction of the groups categorised as "Islamist" genuinely combat the global order. Through an in-depth analysis of the discourses of Tunisian Ennahda and Lebanese Hezbollah, this book demonstrates that Islamist stances toward the world order involve a delicate balance between resistance to certain aspects of the Western-dominated order and recognition of others.

Edinburgh Edinburgh University Press, 2024, 354p.

Edited by Teresa C. Silva and Marzena Kordaczuk-Wąs

How can we use evidence to improve deradicalisation and violence prevention outcomes? Based on work developed during the implementation of the cross-European INDEED project, this is an essential reference book for practitioners, researchers and policy makers. It sets out the three pillars of best evidence-based practice – scientific evidence, professional judgement and consideration of clients’ preferences, values and beliefs. Demonstrating both successful and unsuccessful approaches with case studies from the field, the book offers practical strategies for prevention teams designing and evaluating their programmes.

Bristol, UK: Policy Press, 2025. 357p.

Edited by Rose Mary Allen, Esther Captain, Matthias van Rossum, Urwin Vyent

It is the paradox at the heart of the Dutch Republic: how could a state emerge from resistance to political slavery and subjugation by a foreign power, only to become a colonial empire that promoted slavery all over the world? 'Slavery & the Dutch State' shows how the modern Dutch state and its predecessors were complicit in colonial slavery. It describes the roles of various actors, such as enslaved people, administrators and merchants in the Netherlands and the colonized societies. More than thirty authors discuss the afterlives of slavery, the systematic nature of slavery in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the worldwide scope of slavery, and the various individuals, groups and organizations that had interests in slavery and colonialism starting in the sixteenth century. With chapters covering topics such as the Dutch Reformed Church’s role in slavery, how the history of slavery is taught in schools, and the involvement of the Dutch parliament and royal family in colonial slavery, 'Slavery & the Dutch State' is one of the main publications to appear between July 1, 2023 and July 1, 2024, the year when the Netherlands collectively commemorated the legacy of slavery.

Leiden: Leiden University Press, 2025. 492p.

By Amy Horton and Joe Penny

In 2011, police violence triggered an uprising in Tottenham that laid bare decades of neglect and state violence against the area’s racialised communities. In its aftermath, local leaders and corporate developers devised an aggressive redevelopment agenda that would have demolished the homes, workspaces and communities of thousands of council tenants, private renters and traders. Their plan was to transform Tottenham and surrounding areas from a diverse working-class place to a space for wealthy investors, residents and consumers.

London: UCL Press, 2024. 188p.

By  Anne Marie Munene, Christine Harris, Deborah Rest, Etracy Rukwava, Goldie Joseph, Hadnet Tesfom Habtemariam and Kaffy Kazep.

  Over the past decade, Women for Refugee Women’s (WRW) groundbreaking research on women in immigration detention has shown that the majority of asylum-seeking women detained are survivors of rape and other forms of gender-based violence, including domestic violence, forced marriage and sexual exploitation. Locking up women who have already survived serious violence and abuse retraumatises them, causing profound and long lasting damage to their mental health. Since WRW started campaigning on this issue there have been important changes to women’s detention, including a huge reduction in the numbers detained: from over 300 women at any one time in 2014, to around 100 women now. Yet despite this progress, for women who continue to be locked up, the harms of detention remain. New research we have carried out has found that despite the Home Office banning practices through which male detention centre staff see women in intimate situations, these practices nonetheless continue. In mid-2016 the Home Executive Summary Office banned male staff from carrying out ‘constant supervision’ of women deemed at risk of suicide – yet in our survey of 40 women, 71% of respondents subject to ‘constant supervision’ since the ban came in told us they us had been watched by male staff. This means they will have been watched by men in situations including while in bed, on the toilet, in the shower or getting dressed. Survey respondents who told us they had been subject to constant supervision by male staff included women detained as recently as 2024. Since coming to power in July 2024 the Labour Government has made welcome commitments to prioritise survivors of gender-based violence and make sure they receive the support they need. We urge the Government to ensure that asylum seeking survivors are included in these commitments by taking the practical and achievable step of ending women’s immigration detention, and setting up a new   

London: Women for Refugee Women, 2025. 23p.

By Stephanie Leutert and Caitlyn Yates

In recent years, hundreds of thousands of migrants have sought asylum annually along the U.S.-Mexico border—either by arriving at ports of entry or by turning themselves in to Border Patrol agents. In response, U.S. authorities have enacted a range of policies, which have oscillated between channeling asylum seekers into specific legal pathways and either partially or fully blocking their access to the U.S. immigration system. During each shift, migrants have reacted in varying ways, such as by creating asylum waitlists or encampments along the border. In November 2018, the Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law at the University of Texas at Austin began publishing quarterly reports on asylum processing at ports of entry. As of January 20, 2025, there is no longer any asylum processing at the border. On this day, President Donald Trump assumed office for a second term and immediately halted all asylum processing—including both at and between ports of entry. This shift left hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers in limbo across Mexico, without any path to make an asylum claim in the United States. Simultaneously, the Mexican federal government has also increased its immigration enforcement at its borders and across the country’s interior. Specifically, it has expanded the number of migration-focused checkpoints on highways heading north, deployed more soldiers to the U.S.-Mexico border, and bussed apprehended migrants to cities in southern Mexico. The Trump Administration’s elimination of foreign assistance has also hurt Mexican civil society organizations, with some migrant shelters struggling to provide food and other basic resources. This February 2025 asylum processing update focuses on current U.S. asylum policies at ports of entry and migrants’ experiences in Mexican border cities. It draws on phone and WhatsApp interviews with Mexican government officials and members of civil society organizations on both sides of the border from February 17, 2025 through February 24, 2025. It also relies on local news articles to fill in any gaps.

Austin, TX: The Robert Strauss Center for International Security and Law, 2025. 14p.

By  Focus on Labour Exploitation (FLEX)

Labour exploitation must be recognised as part of a continuum of experiences which range from decent work through to minor and major labour law violations, all the way to severe exploitation, including human trafficking. When workers are unable to access rights or to challenge poor employment conditions at those ‘earlier stages’ or ‘lower levels’ of exploitation, it paves the way for more severe exploitation including trafficking. 

The Modern Slavery Act 2015 focused on identifying trafficking which had already taken place. For those people who have been trafficked, this is too late. Ten years later, and with an Employment Rights Bill going through parliament, policy-makers should turn their attention to prevention, by addressing the conditions which have allowed trafficking for labour exploitation to thrive.

The Employment Rights Bill provides significant opportunity here. The Bill must be amended to ensure that all workers can access rights early, knowing that the authorities will focus on addressing their exploitation and delivering justice. 

London: FLEX, 2025. 5p.

By Susan Fratzke, Meghan Benton, Andrew Selee, Emma Dorst, Samuel Davidoff-Gore 

  The territorial asylum system at the heart of the global protection regime has proven itself to be a blunt tool with which to address the protection challenges of the 21st century. New crises, protracted displacement situations, and expanding norms about who merits protection have created a significant and growing population of individuals in need of international protection. In addition, growing mobility pressures due to demographic change, economic inequality, and climate change have found an outlet in asylum systems, providing an avenue of entry even for those who do not technically qualify for protection. Meanwhile, national governments have struggled to reconcile their international protection responsibilities with their domestic responsibilities to maintain security and order and to foster public trust. Asylum adjudication systems have become unwieldy and unable to keep pace with the demands placed on them, particularly when confronted with rapid changes or complex needs. These failures have had serious consequences. For individuals, the absence of large-scale alternatives to territorial asylum means that access to protection often depends on taking extreme risks or enduring hardships in order to reach the territory of a country where they can seek protection, journeys that may not be possible for the most vulnerable. For states, territorial asylum places governments in a largely reactive position, only responding to protection needs once their hand is forced by the arrival of people seeking protection on their territory. And at the global level, the lack of tools to facilitate the legal mobility of individuals in search of protection and of opportunities for displaced persons to move to a country other than their country of first asylum has concentrated protection responsibilities in a small number of countries, most of them low- or middle income. According to estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) nearly 40 percent of the world’s refugees and individuals in refugee-like situations were hosted by just five countries as of mid-2023. To answer these challenges, there is an urgent need to shift the focus of protection responses away from an exclusive reliance on territorial asylum and toward a diversified set of policy tools. Territorial asylum will, and should, remain accessible as a safety valve, but states should seek to proactively facilitate access to protection as soon after and close to a displacement crisis as possible—and well before dangerous journeys become necessary. At the same time, policy approaches should recognize the agency of refugees and displaced persons—and the mobility pressures this can create—and provide legal avenues for individuals to move within and outside of their country of first asylum to join family and other connections through family reunification or sponsorship channels and to pursue education, work, or other opportunities. Aside from the benefits for displaced persons, such approaches would help transit and destination countries to reduce disorder at their borders and, by capitalizing on the resiliency and resourcefulness of displaced individuals in locating and securing solutions for themselves, to better allocate scarce resources to assist those who are most vulnerable. Policy approaches should also be responsive to the specificities of each crisis or situation. This may mean adopting expedited procedures or flexible forms of status in order to enable faster access to  status, prevent processing backlogs, or respond to legitimate needs that are not recognized in existing legal frameworks.    

Washington, DC: Migration Policy Institute, 2024.  33p.

By Suleman Lazarus, Mina Chiang, and Mark Button

This study examines how cybercriminals exploit deceptive recruitment tactics and digital platforms to entrap and exploit victims in human trafficking withinthe cybercrime context. It employs Migration and Transnationalism perspec-tives to elucidate the intersection of human trafficking and cybercrime opera-tions in Cambodia. Using thematic analysis of victim testimonies, we identify six main themes: (1) Deception and Recruitment, (2) Manipulation and Control,(3) Exploitation and Forced Labor, (4) Trading and Movement, (5) ScammingMethods, and (6) Escape and Rescue. While the following analysis explores thevictim’s first-hand experiences within these themes, it also reflects the accounts of other victims referenced in his story. Human traffickers enticed victims with fraudulent job offers and misleading promises, compelling them to pay significant recruitment fees. After recruitment, they manipulated vic-tims through tactics such as visa deception and bribery at immigration to ensure compliance and control. They subjected victims to harsh working conditions, enforcing extended hours, unrealistic targets, and physical punish-ments for underperformance. Strict security measures and trading between companies and compounds further complicated escape efforts. Criminal Strained victims to forge identities and exploit targets via social media, effec-tively turning them into online fraudsters. However, some managed to escape with assistance from NGOs, highlighting the vital role of organizational sup-port in rescue operations. We highlight the need for targeted interventions and support for victims of such complex cybercrime enterprises.tions

Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner OHCHR 2023).