SHAH, MARIAM

The following excerpt from the document contains multiple links embedded in the original text: "Islamic State (IS) recently released a powerful recruitment message for 'distracted Muslim youth' to travel and join IS territories across the world. It highlights a disturbing trend in how terrorist organisations are using technology to recruit and mobilise members through a single message. It also shows that contemporary terror groups and extremist organisations are adapting fast to emerging technologies. This Insight aims to highlight an alarming reality: the exploitation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology by terrorist and violent extremist groups to strengthen recruitment efforts. These groups proficiently manipulate online platforms, leveraging sophisticated AI tools to disseminate tailored propaganda content to exploit psychological vulnerabilities and amplify divisive narratives, thereby fostering radicalisation and recruitment. From using encrypted messaging apps like Telegram and WhatsApp to seeking refuge in the anonymity of the Dark Web, these groups employ various tactics to evade AI detection and exploit vulnerabilities. By leveraging AI tools, these groups engage in personalised messaging, rapid distribution, and exploitation of social media algorithms to amplify their reach and influence susceptible individuals."

GLOBAL NETWORK ON EXTREMISM AND TECHNOLOGY (GNET). 4 JUL, 2024. 8p.

UNITED STATES. PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICE. OFFICE OF THE SURGEON GENERAL

From the document: "A recent nationally representative survey (n=1,271) found that the majority of U.S. adults or their family members (54%) have experienced a firearm-related incident. Among all respondents, 21% have personally been threatened with a firearm, 19% have a family member who was killed by a firearm (including by suicide), 17% have witnessed someone being shot, 4% have shot a firearm in self-defense, and 4% have been injured by a firearm (Figure 2). 'Nearly 6 in 10 U.S. adults say that they worry 'sometimes,' 'almost every day,' or 'every day,' about a loved one being a victim of firearm violence.' Such high levels of exposure to firearm violence for both children and adults give rise to a cycle of trauma and fear within our communities, contributing to the nation's mental health crisis. This Advisory describes the public health crisis of firearm violence in America and describes strategies for firearm injury and violence prevention, with a focus on the health and well-being of children, families, and communities."

United States. Public Health Service. Office of the Surgeon Genera. . 2024. 49p.

By National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

For nearly eight decades, the world has been navigating the dangers of the nuclear age. Despite Cold War tensions and the rise of global terrorism, nuclear weapons have not been used in conflict since Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Efforts such as strategic deterrence, arms control and non-proliferation agreements, and the U.S.-led global counterterrorism have helped to keep nuclear incidents at bay. However, the nation's success to date in countering nuclear terrorism does not come with a guarantee, success often carries the risk that other challenges will siphon away attention and resources and can lead to the perception that the threat no longer exists.

This report found that U.S. efforts to counter nuclear or radiological terrorism are not keeping pace with the evolving threat landscape. The U.S. government should maintain a strategic focus and effort on combatting terrorism across the national security community in coordination with international partners, State, Local, Tribal and Territorial authorities, the National Laboratories, universities and colleges, and civil society. Developing and sustaining adequate nuclear incident response and recovery capabilities at the local and state levels will likely require significant new investments in resources and empowerment of local response from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy, and National Institutes of Health.

Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. 2024. 158p.

By Norah W. Friar; Molly Merrill-Francis, Elizabeth M. Parker,  Carlos Siordia, Thomas R. Simon

Summary

What is already known about this topic?

Secure firearm storage is associated with lower risk for firearm injuries. Data on state and demographic variation in storage practices might help guide the development and implementation of prevention and evaluation efforts.

What is added by this report?

Among eight states with available data, 18.4%–50.6% of Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System respondents reported keeping a firearm in or around the home. Of respondents with a loaded firearm and a child or adolescent aged ≤17 years in the home, 25.2%–41.4% reported that a loaded firearm was kept unlocked.

What are the implications for public health practice?

State and demographic variation in storage practices highlights the importance of tailored prevention activities to reduce handling of guns by children and youths without adult supervision and other unauthorized persons.

Abstract

Secure firearm storage might help reduce access by children and other unauthorized users and the related risk for injury or death. Information about state-specific prevalence of firearm storage practices can be used to develop secure storage messages and programs; however, such information is often unavailable. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, by respondent characteristics, were used to estimate prevalence of keeping firearms in or around the home and related storage practices for eight states that administered the firearm safety module in 2021 or 2022. Overall, 18.4% (California) to 50.6% (Alaska) of respondents reported that a firearm was kept in or around their home. Among those with a firearm in or around the home, 19.5% (Minnesota) to 43.8% (North Carolina) reported that a firearm was stored loaded. Across all eight states, approximately one half of those with a loaded firearm stored at least one loaded firearm unlocked. Among respondents with a child and a loaded firearm in the home, 25.2% (Ohio) to 41.4% (Alaska) reported that a loaded firearm was stored unlocked. Variability in firearm storage practices highlights the importance of local data and suggests opportunities to tailor prevention efforts to specific population groups to reduce risk for firearm handling by children without adult supervision, and other unauthorized persons.

By The U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of 

The Justice Department today announced the publication of Firearm Trafficking Investigations, the third volume of the National Firearms Commerce and Trafficking Assessment (NFCTA), a four-part, comprehensive examination of commerce in firearms and the diversion of firearms to illegal markets. This Volume incorporates input from the most comprehensive national survey of the special agents who conduct Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives (ATF) trafficking investigations to provide the first in-depth analysis of firearm trafficking investigations in more than two decades. This report examines 9,708 closed ATF firearm trafficking investigations initiated between CY 2017 and 2021. In April 2021, Attorney General Garland directed the ATF to undertake its first comprehensive study of criminal gun trafficking, the intentional movement of one or more firearms into the illegal market for a criminal purpose or possession.

“This report makes clear that black-market guns sold by unlicensed dealers without a background check are increasingly being found at crime scenes,” said Attorney General Merrick B. Garland. “Under the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the Justice Department has proposed a new rule to clarify when gun dealers must get licenses and conduct background checks. The Department is also vigorously enforcing the new provisions Congress passed in the Act to prohibit illegal gun trafficking and straw purchasing. This report reminds us of the urgency of our work, and I am grateful to the extraordinary professionals of the ATF who put their lives on the line to help keep our communities safe, and whose tireless work is responsible for the most comprehensive look at America’s crime gun data in over two decades.”

“Thanks to the hard work of ATF, we now have fresh data and cutting-edge insights on the key drivers of illegal firearms trafficking,” said Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. “Among other trends, the report shows the high frequency of traffickers selling firearms without a license to evade federal law, and the widespread impact of straw purchasers concealing the true recipients of illegally diverted firearms. This report will help agents and prosecutors target investigations, prosecute offenders, and reduce gun violence.”

“This is the most comprehensive survey ever of ATF’s thousands of expert gun trafficking agents to learn about the cases they do,” said ATF Director Steven Dettelbach. “Americans need this data to understand this threat and to better address it.  One striking finding from the data is that individuals illegally engaged in the business of unlicensed firearms dealing are contributing more and more to the flow of firearms into the black market, where we know that felons, gang members, and other violent offenders often get their guns. I want to be crystal clear – illegal firearms trafficking is not a victimless crime. You can’t illegally help to arm violent people and not be responsible for the violence that follows. We fight this public safety battle every day at ATF, as the thousands of ATF cases analyzed in this volume demonstrate. I commend the men and women of ATF and our truly wonderful partners for producing this important study, and also for risking everything to pursue these cases every single day.”

One of the key data-points identified in the analysis is the increased use of intelligence to initiate trafficking investigations. The use of Crime Gun Intelligence Center (CGIC) referrals increased nearly 20% from 2017 to 2021, while the use of Confidential Informants to initiative cases dropped nine percent during that time. This data underscores the value of CGICs, which are law enforcement hubs that focus exclusively on investigating and preventing gun violence in local communities. They bring together, under one roof, the expertise of state and federal investigators, firearms evidence examiners, and intelligence analysts to rapidly collect, analyze, and share information and leads about guns used in violent crimes and to take action to disrupt and dismantle firearm trafficking. ATF operates and supports more than 60 CGICs nationwide.

Another key data point demonstrates the shift in the types of supply lines, or trafficking channels, used to move firearms out of lawful commerce into the illegal market over the past two decades. Investigations involving corrupt federal firearms licensees (FFLs) decreased over the study period with the most frequent channels identified now being illegal, unlicensed firearm dealing by private persons and straw purchasing, which is when someone buys a gun for someone who is prohibited.

The report also identified source-to-market type trends. For instance, 56% of the cases examined involved intrastate trafficking, while 32% involved interstate trafficking. Intrastate trafficking was most prevalent in all regions except the northeast, where interstate trafficking was most prevalent. This reinforces the findings from Volume II, which confirmed that although most — 72% nationally — traced crime guns are recovered in the same state in which they were acquired from an FFL, certain states and cities are targets for firearm traffickers. The cross-jurisdictional nature of this issue — guns purchased in one state and trafficked to another where they’re used in crime — is what led the Attorney General to launch five firearms trafficking strike forces in July 2021.

Additional key findings from the study period include:

         The three most frequently identified violations of federal law in the investigations analyzed during this study included: (1) dealing in firearms without a license, (2) providing false information to an FFL, which is associated with straw purchasing, and (3) possession of a firearm by a convicted felon.

         Firearms trafficked through unlicensed dealers were used in shootings in 368 cases.

         Trafficked firearms were used in homicides in 265 cases, attempted homicide in 222 cases, and aggravated assaults in 446 cases.

         Over half of the firearms trafficked were handguns (nearly 56%), with rifles following in second (nearly 19%).

         The average number of firearms trafficked per case was 16.

         In nearly 58% of the cases, five or fewer firearms were trafficked.

         The majority of traffickers who directly or indirectly facilitated the movement of firearms to illegal markets were white (53%), male (84%), and U.S. citizens (95%).

         The recipients or end users of the trafficked firearms tended to be previously convicted felons (60%) and young adults aged 25 to 34 (48%).

         The annual percentage of juvenile (17 and under) end-users increased almost 10% between 2017 and 2021.

In February 2023, the Department issued Volume II of the NFCTA, Crime Gun Intelligence and Analysis, which presents and analyzes data on crime guns (firearms used in crime) recovered between 2017 and 2021. The analysis reinforces the critical importance of ATF’s unique crime gun tracing authority and highlights the value of data from ATF’s National Integrated Ballistic Information Network (NIBIN) program.

In May 2022, the Department issued Volume I of the NFCTA, Firearms in Commerce, which presents and analyzes data collected by ATF and other federal agencies related to the manufacture, exportation, and importation of firearms.

To produce the NFCTA, the ATF assembled a team of subject experts from ATF, as well as from academic and related fields. Although ATF issues a variety of public and law enforcement reports and bulletins regarding firearm commerce, trafficking, and related issues every year, it has not undertaken a joint academic study on the scale of the NFCTA in more than 20 years.

Washington, DC: 

By Norah W. Friar, Molly Merrill-Francis, Elizabeth M. Parker, Carlos Siordia, Thomas R. Simon

Secure firearm storage might help reduce access by children and other unauthorized users and the related risk for injury or death. Information about state-specific prevalence of firearm storage practices can be used to develop secure storage messages and programs; however, such information is often unavailable. Data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, by respondent characteristics, were used to estimate prevalence of keeping firearms in or around the home and related storage practices for eight states that administered the firearm safety module in 2021 or 2022. Overall, 18.4% (California) to 50.6% (Alaska) of respondents reported that a firearm was kept in or around their home. Among those with a firearm in or around the home, 19.5% (Minnesota) to 43.8% (North Carolina) reported that a firearm was stored loaded. Across all eight states, approximately one half of those with a loaded firearm stored at least one loaded firearm unlocked. Among respondents with a child and a loaded firearm in the home, 25.2% (Ohio) to 41.4% (Alaska) reported that a loaded firearm was stored unlocked. Variability in firearm storage practices highlights the importance of local data and suggests opportunities to tailor prevention efforts to specific population groups to reduce risk for firearm handling by children without adult supervision, and other unauthorized persons.

Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 73 / No. 23 , June 13, 2024.

By Alex R. Piquero, John K. Roman

In 2020, the US experienced the largest 1-year increase in homicide since 1960. The spike began in the first few months of the year, accelerating during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency measures, the murder of George Floyd, and social protests.1 Three additional observations are relevant. First, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that the homicide increase in 2020 was due to firearm injuries. While the overall homicide rate increased 28.4%, the firearm homicide rate increased 34.6%.2 Second, the spike in violence was concentrated within certain demographic groups. CDC researchers found 19 384 victims of firearms homicide in 2020.3 Of those victims, 61% were Black individuals, and they experienced firearm homicide at 14 times the rate of White indviduals in 2020. This racial disparity does not exist for other types of violence.4 Third, the largest increases in death by firearm homicide were for Black men aged between 10 and 44 years old

JAMA Network Open. 2024;7(5):e2412946. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.12946

By The U.S. Surgeon General

Since 2020, firearm‑related injury has been the leading cause of death for U.S. children and adolescents (ages 1–19), surpassing motor vehicle crashes, cancer, and drug overdose and poisoning (Figure 1). In 2022, 48,204 total people died from f irearm‑related injuries, including suicides, homicides, and unintentional deaths. This is over 8,000 more lives lost than in 2019 and over 16,000 more lives lost than in 2010 .

Washington, DC: Office of the U.S.Surgeon General, 2024. 40p.

International Narcotics Control Board

Totals of estimates of annual medical and scientific requirements for narcotic drugs listed in Schedules I and II of the 1961 Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, as amended by the 1972 Protocol Amending the Single Convention. These estimates have been confirmed by the International Narcotics Control Board and have henceforth legal value. The totals of the estimates enable parties to determine the maximum quantity of drugs that a State may acquire under the 1961 Convention through import and/or manufacture.

INCB, 2024. 500p.

The communities of Hoekwil and Touwsranten on South Africa’s Garden Route have been engaged in an ongoing dialogue process to improve safety and increase the prosperity of all residents since August 2021. The dialogue brings residents together across class, race and nationality. This assessment reveals the achievements and challenges of the process.   

issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pages/1715169127898-SAR-58.pdf

Institute for Security Studies, 2024.

By Jessica H. Beard , Raha Raissian , Leah Roberts , Laura Partain , Jennifer Midberry , Tia Walker, et al.

Objective

To better understand how community firearm violence (CFV) is communicated to the public, we aimed to identify systematic differences between the characteristics of shooting victims and events covered on television news and all shootings in Philadelphia, PA, a city with escalating CFV incidence.

Methods

We compiled a stratified sample of local television news clips covering shootings that occurred in Philadelphia aired on two randomly selected days per month from January-June 2021 (n = 154 clips). We coded the clips to determine demographic and geographic information about the shooting victims and events and then matched coded shootings with corresponding shootings in the Philadelphia police database. We compared characteristics of shooting victims and shooting event locations depicted in television clips (n = 62) with overall characteristics of shootings in Philadelphia during the study period (n = 1082).

Results

Compared to all individuals shot, victims whose shootings were covered on local television news more likely to be children and more likely to be shot in a mass shooting. The average median household income of shooting locations featured on television was significantly higher than the median household income across all shooting locations ($60,302 for television shootings vs. $41,233 for all shootings; p = 0.002). Shootings featured on television occurred in areas with lower rates of income inequality and racialized economic segregation compared to all shooting locations.

Conclusions

Television news outlets in Philadelphia systematically over-reported shootings of children, mass shootings, and shootings that occurred in neighborhoods with higher median household income, less socioeconomic inequality, and lower rates of racialized economic segregation.

Preventive Medicine Reports

Volume 42, June 2024, 102739

By HM Inspectorate of Probation

  This was the first regional inspection of probation services in Kent, Surrey and Sussex (KSS) since the commencement of the Inspectorate’s new probation inspection programme in October 2023. There were clear strengths in the region’s overall strategic arrangements, but the quality of work delivered to manage people on probation was insufficient in five out of six of our standards of casework, with particularly poor and concerning results in the quality of court reports and public protection. Statutory victim work was, by contrast, delivered to a high standard and the results were impressive. Overall, we have rated this region as ‘Requires improvement’. Staffing in the region was in a fragile position. Despite improvements made to staffing numbers as a result of proactive recruitment, significant gaps were still present with a 30 per cent vacancy rate for Probation Officers (POs). The national recruitment model has consistently failed to provide the region with its required number of allocated learners. National recruitment limitations and insufficient salaries to cope with the cost of living in the region were hampering the region’s ability to resource the service appropriately. Levels of experience in the region were limited, with 22 per cent of staff having joined the service within the past 12 months. Deficits were found with Professional Qualification in Probation (PQiP) training, and with the region not preparing learners adequately for their role post qualification. Like other areas of the region, court had resourcing issues, with a third of the target staffing not in place, and with a number of staff working remotely. Significant improvements in the quality of court work were required, with only 14 per cent of cases inspected being judged to be of sufficient standard, which has the potential to impact on the confidence of sentencers. Improvements were needed in the quality of work to assess and manage the risks that people on probation pose to the community. This was particularly poor in implementation and delivery, where only 22 per cent of cases we inspected were judged sufficient to effectively support the safety of other people. On the contrary, statutory victim work was very strong, rated ‘Outstanding’. It was particularly impressive that 100 per cent of victims whose cases were inspected were able to make relevant contributions prior to the release of perpetrators. Whilst the results on the ground were disappointing, we found that the leadership team were resilient, innovative and responsive to the challenges the region faced. This included implementation of additional roles to improve quality, and the targeted approach by unpaid work leaders to address enforcement issues. A consistent message around improving culture had been delivered well. Leaders had been persistent in addressing unacceptable behaviour appropriately and decisively. This challenging piece of work should be marked as a positive achievement for the region. KSS will be disappointed with the overall findings of this inspection, given the strengths in leadership and strong delivery in victim work. The current recruitment model is unlikely to address the issues it faces regarding resourcing, and a more localised and incentive-based approach is required. A number of achievements have been made by the region, but it does continue to face challenges going forward. If the staffing difficulties can be addressed and there is a focus on the quality of casework and embedding learning, the region can progress on a continued positive trajectory.  

  Manchester, UK: HM Inspectorate of Probation, May 2024. 31p.

By Rosanna Smart

Background

Despite growing evidence about how state-level firearm regulations affect overall rates of injury and death, little is known about whether potential harms or benefits of firearm laws are evenly distributed across demographic subgroups. In this systematic review, we synthesized available evidence on the extent to which firearm policies produce differential effects by race and ethnicity on injury, recreational or defensive gun use, and gun ownership or purchasing behaviors.

Main body

We searched 13 databases for English-language studies published between 1995 and February 28, 2023 that estimated a relationship between firearm policy in the USA and one of eight outcomes, included a comparison group, evaluated time series data, and provided estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. We used pre-specified criteria to evaluate the quality of inference and causal effect identification. By policy and outcome, we compared policy effects across studies and across racial/ethnic groups using two different ways to express effect sizes: incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and rate differences. Of 182 studies that used quasi-experimental methods to evaluate firearm policy effects, only 15 estimated policy effects differentiated by race or ethnicity. These 15 eligible studies provided 57 separate policy effect comparisons across race/ethnicity, 51 of which evaluated interpersonal violence. In IRR terms, there was little consistent evidence that policies produced significantly different effects for different racial/ethnic groups. However, because of different baseline homicide rates, similar relative effects for some policies (e.g., universal background checks) translated into significantly greater absolute differences in homicide rates among Black compared to white victims.

Conclusions

The current literature does not support strong conclusions about whether state firearm policies differentially benefit or harm particular racial/ethnic groups. This largely reflects limited attention to these questions in the literature and challenges with detecting such effects given existing data availability and statistical power. Findings also emphasize the need for additional rigorous research that adopts a more explicit focus on testing for racial differences in firearm policy effects and that assesses the quality of race/ethnicity information in firearm injury and crime datasets.

Inj Epidemiol. 2023; 10: 67.

By Glenn L. Pierce; David Lambert; Daniel Trovato; and Peter Gagliardi

This study examines the innovative use of firearms related evidence to enhance violent crime investigations in New Jersey. This effort changed the use of firearms forensic evidence from a sole evidential focus to one that also incorporates a premonitory focus required to generate investigative leads. This project demonstrated the critical importance of fusing firearms forensic evidence such as ballistics imaging with locally available information, such as arrest and incident data on a statewide basis. This study further demonstrated the value of ballistics imaging to connect previously unconnected incidents, individuals, and weapons particularly when combined with other law enforcement data sets. This project demonstrated the critical importance of fusing firearms forensic evidence such as ballistics imaging with locally available information, such as arrest and incident data on a statewide basis. This study further demonstrated the value of ballistics imaging to connect, previously unconnected incidents, individuals, and weapons particularly when combined with other law enforcement data sets. It illustrated the critical need of information sharing across forensic, criminal intelligence (such as fusion and real time crime centers), and investigative entities across all levels of government – local, state, and federal - in supporting violent crime suppression efforts. The study is a mixed methods approach to policy analysis using both quantitative and qualitative analysis. The researchers’ analyzed ballistics imaging submissions over a multi-year period in addition to examining open source and agency documents that tracked many of the crime reduction projects the New Jersey State Police incorporated into their crime gun intelligence effort.

Boston: Northeastern University, 2023. 120p.

By V A Pear , J P Schleimer , A J Aubel , S Buggs , C E Knoepke , R Pallin , A B Shev , E Tomsich , G J Wintemute , N Kravitz-Wirtz

Extreme risk protection orders (ERPOs) provide a civil mechanism to temporarily remove firearm access from individuals at high risk of harming themselves or others. Evidence and theory suggest that ERPOs can prevent firearm-related harm, but the policy's impact on racial/ethnic equity is largely unknown. To examine potential inequities by race/ethnicity in public perceptions and use of California's ERPO law, we drew on two complementary data sources: 1) a 2020 state-representative survey of California adults, and 2) ERPO court documents for the first 3 years of policy implementation (2016-2018). Majorities (54-89%) of all racial/ethnic groups reported that ERPOs are at least sometimes appropriate, and 64-94% were willing to ask a judge for an ERPO for a family member. However, Black and Hispanic/Latinx survey participants less often perceived ERPOs as appropriate and were less willing to serve as petitioners, with Black participants citing lack of knowledge about ERPOs and not trusting the system to be fair as their top reasons for unwillingness. Similarly, review of ERPO court documents revealed that no family or household members served as petitioners for Black and Hispanic/Latinx ERPO respondents. Additionally, Black respondents were the least likely to have documented access to a firearm and legal representation in court. Racial/ethnic equity in ERPO use may be improved by reducing barriers to petitioning, incorporating non-law enforcement intervention professionals like behavioral health specialists into the ERPO process, providing legal assistance to respondents and petitioners, and investing in the social safety net.

Prev Med. 2022 Dec;165(Pt A):107181. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2022.107181. Epub 2022 Aug 6. PMID: 35940474.

By Hillel Y. Levin & Timothy D. Lytton

In 2005, Congress passed the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act (PLCAA), granting the firearms industry sweeping immunity from civil lawsuits. However, PLCAA immunity is not absolute. This Article demonstrates that both state and federal courts have fundamentally misread PLCAA when adjudicating cases involving the scope of gun industry immunity. Properly understood, PLCAA permits lawsuits against the gun industry so long as they are based on statutory causes of action rather than common law. While broadly preempting state common law claims, PLCAA affords state legislatures autonomy in deciding how to regulate the gun industry within their borders.

Additionally, this Article addresses unresolved questions concerning constitutional limits on gun industry regulation. PLCAA explicitly strikes a balance between three constitutional principles. It safeguards the individual right to keep and bear arms by protecting the gun industry from civil litigation that would unduly curtail civilian access to firearms. It insists that the separation of powers requires that gun industry regulation should derive from legislation not common law adjudication. It affords state governments autonomy in deciding how to regulate the gun industry, recognizing that there are regional differences in attitudes about how to best reduce firearms-related violence. We counsel against interpretations of the Second Amendment’s application to gun industry regulation that would expand the right to keep and bear arms at the expense of other important constitutional principles such as the separation of powers and federalism

75 Florida Law Review 833 (2023),

By Avneet Bhullar, Jonathan Shipley, […], and Jeffry Nahmias, , et al,

Background

In January of 2019, Washington State (WA) passed Initiative 1639 making it illegal for persons <21 years-old to buy assault weapons (AWs). This study aimed to evaluate the effects of WA-1639 on firearm-related incidents involving AWs by those <21 years-old in WA, hypothesizing a decrease in incidents after WA-1639.

Methods

Retrospective (2016-2021) data on firearm violence (FV) events were gathered from the Gun Violence Archive. The rate of FV was weighted per 100,000 people. Total monthly incidents, injuries, and deaths were compared pre-law (January 2016-December 2018) vs post-law (January 2019-December 2021) implementation. Mann-Whitney U tests and Poisson’s regression were used for analysis.

Results

From 4091 FV incidents (2210 (54.02%) pre-law vs 1881 (45.98%) post-law), 50 involved AWs pre- (2.3%) and 15 (.8%) post-law. Of these, 11 were committed by subjects <21 years-old pre-law and only one occurred post-law. Total incidents of FV (z = −3.80, P < .001), AW incidents (z = −4.28, P < .001), and AW incidents involving someone <21 years-old (z = −3.01, P < .01) decreased post-law. Additionally, regression analysis demonstrated the incident rate ratio (IRR) of all FV (1.23, 95% CI [1.10-1.38], P < .001), all AW FV incidents (3.42, 95% CI [1.70-6.89], P = .001), and AW incidents by subjects <21 years-old (11.53, 95% CI [1.52-87.26], P = .02) were greater pre-law vs post-law.

Discussion

Following implementation of WA-1639, there was a significant decrease in FV incidents and those involving AWs by individuals <21 years-old. This suggests targeted firearm legislation may help curtail FV. Further studies evaluating FV after legislation implementation in other states is needed to confirm these findings.

The American SurgeonTM. 2024;0(0). doi:10.1177/00031348241244644 (Online First)

By Jonathan Jay

Young people’s exposure to firearm violence in US cities has surged during the COVID-19 pandemic.1,2 This study by Lanfear and colleagues3 examines how long-term changes in firearm violence have influenced exposure across multiple birth cohorts in Chicago, Illinois. Comparing 4 cohorts from the Project on Human Development in Chicago Neighborhoods (PHDCN), Lanfear et al3 find that any benefits younger cohorts might have from declines in citywide violence from 1994 to 2014 were erased by subsequent violence increases. The results underscore how little progress we have made over several decades to address the root causes of community firearm violence and its disproportionate effects on Black and Hispanic youth.

In the study by Lanfear and colleagues,3 the youngest PHDCN cohort, born around 1996, entered adulthood after a sustained lull in firearm homicide rates in Chicago (ie, 2004-2014). This lull limited the cohort’s exposure to neighborhood experiences of firearm violence, such as seeing someone get shot, during early life. However, these youth were in the highest-risk phase of adolescence (ages 18-24 years) when firearm violence spiked in 2016 and again in 2020.3 Consequently, their cumulative risk of being shot was comparable to cohorts born earlier, including those who entered adolescence during the most violent years of the 1990s.3

Exposure to firearm violence is associated with lasting consequences for youth and their loved ones. Indirect exposure (eg, witnessing violence) and direct exposure (eg, surviving an assault) can influence mental and physical health outcomes over the life course. In a subset of individuals, exposure is associated with the future enactment of firearm violence, feeding cycles of firearm violence at the community level. The increase in firearm violence during the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have long-term outcomes because it substantially increased both indirect1 and direct2 exposure among US youth. Therefore, it is crucial to continue scaling up public health programs to halt the violence surge and deal with its aftermath, especially through community-based outreach programs and trauma-informed services.

At the same time, efforts must directly target the systemic inequities that concentrate firearm violence exposure among Black and Hispanic youth. Racial and ethnic disparities in these outcomes are profound and longstanding. In the study by Lanfear et al,3 differences in firearm violence exposure by race were more extreme than differences between birth cohorts. By the end of the study period, exposure was roughly comparable across age cohorts but exposure was consistently lowest among White youth. Other recent work, such as a 2023 study by Jay et al,2 reported that during the pandemic, Black children were 100 times, and Hispanic children 25 times, more likely than White children to be shot in Chicago and other major US cities.

These staggering disparities demand action against structural racism as a driver of firearm violence. Incremental violence reductions, such as those experienced by many US cities from the mid-1990s through mid-2010s, are necessary and life-saving but also precarious, as recent spikes have shown. There is no consensus among scholars on the reasons for the long-term declines in violence, but it is evident that these declines did not fundamentally disrupt the racial inequities that determine who is at the most risk of being shot or witnessing a shooting: even as homicide rates declined in Chicago, violence was increasingly concentrated in predominantly Black neighborhoods.4

Although community violence had been gradually declining, Black and Hispanic youth remained pervasively exposed to societal inequities. Child poverty in the US peaked in the early 2010s, with more than one-quarter of Black and Hispanic children living below the federal poverty line.5 Meanwhile, policy makers emphasized punitive responses, such as aggressive policing and harsh sentencing, even for nonviolent offenses. Black and Hispanic communities bore the brunt of these policies. In Chicago, for example, mass incarceration “hot spots” emerged, mainly in Black neighborhoods on the South and West sides. There were 851 “million dollar blocks,” where the costs of incarcerating residents from these areas exceeded $1 million, from 2005 to 2009 alone.6 Such massive investments in punishment necessarily came at the expense of community investments that might have helped close racial and ethnic gaps in child opportunity.

This disinvestment from basic needs likely explains why Black and Hispanic youth experienced the largest change in violence exposure during the COVID-19 pandemic. When violence increased during the pandemic, it increased fastest in the neighborhoods most burdened by racial segregation and economic deprivation,7 where COVID-19 deaths, economic losses, and other stressors were most severe. Firearm violence exposure among White youth mostly remained low during the pandemic, suggesting that the 2020 spike was not inevitable, but rather a byproduct of the social and economic vulnerability produced by sociopolitical forces, such as long-term disinvestment.

Addressing racial and ethnic disparities in youth exposure to firearm violence requires not only interrupting cycles of violence, but interrupting cycles of racialized disinvestment and punitive policy-making. Community investments at the micro level, such as improving the physical condition of abandoned properties, have been shown to reduce nearby firearm violence8; at the macro level, the federal Child Tax Credit caused child poverty to plummet in 2021.5 Policies to reduce residential racial segregation, such as inclusionary zoning, are also likely necessary to close gaps in the long term. There was not much change in firearm violence exposure for youth born between the early 1980s and late 1990s in Chicago—and until we remove the structural barriers to community safety, this change is unlikely to come.

JAMA Network Open, 2023;6(5):e2312425. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.12425

By The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and the Flemish Peace Institute

The multifaceted links between illicit drug trafficking and illicit firearms present a global challenge requiring a clear understanding and integrated responses. These multidimensional links are characterized by:

• the demand for firearms that is created by the trafficking of illicit drugs, not least as drug traffickers are heavily armed with illicitly trafficked weapons;

• the connection between firearms and drug trafficking routes, actors and modi operandi, with drug traffickers accepting or demanding firearms as payment-in-kind for illicitly trafficked drugs;

• gun violence that occurs as a direct result of the ability of drug traffickers to increase their capabilities through accessing a wide variety of illicitly trafficked firearms.

Drug trafficking fuels firearms trafficking

Global drug trafficking acts as a key driver for the use of illicit firearms as well as their illicit manufacturing, proliferation, and trafficking. The long life cycle of firearms provides opportunities for the diversion of firearms from legal possession into illegal possession. Drug criminals across the globe profit from such diversion opportunities and the affiliated firearms trafficking activities.

Firearms seizures in the context of drug trafficking occur on a global scale and are particularly prominent in Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean. Firearms trafficking is often funded by the profits generated by illicit drug trafficking, with direct exchanges of firearms for drugs taking place in certain instances.

Demand for firearms is high in a drug-related criminal context due to the instrumental and reputational purposes that a firearm fulfils for actors involved in drug trafficking activities. Access to firearms allows drug criminals to carry out or expand their activities and protect their territory and themselves against competitors and law enforcement agencies.

Similar routes, actors and modi operandi in both types of trafficking

While drug trafficking is characterized by a global reach and firearms trafficking is generally limited to a regional dimension, significant interlinkages arise between both types of trafficking through the actors, routes and modi operandi used by the traffickers. Arms trafficking methods have often been pioneered by drug traffickers.

Frequently, firearms and drugs are smuggled together, or the firearms can be used as a means of protection for drug traffickers from both competitors and/or public security forces.

Global drug trafficking routes can also be exploited for firearms trafficking as firearms can be smuggled in the reverse direction or on the same drug trafficking route and incorporate the same facilitators and/or collaborators to successfully smuggle the contraband.

Drug trafficking fuels gun violence

Despite the largely non-violent dimension of the illicit drug trade, as most illicit drugs transactions and trafficking occur without violence, the linkages between firearms and drug trafficking can trigger, facilitate and intensify violence. Access to trafficked firearms tends to increase the use of violence in drug markets across the globe, with more lethal casualties and higher levels of the use of automatic rifles being associated with the drug milieu than with other criminal contexts.

Drug-related gun violence is a global phenomenon and can occur at any point within the drug lifecycle. Significant geographical differences can be observed in gun violence related to the production and trafficking of large quantities of drugs, which reflect to a certain extent the global distribution patterns of the various types of drugs. Drug-related gun violence connected to local consumer drug markets, on the other hand, can be observed across the globe.

Gun violence related to drug trafficking can have devastating spill-over effects on local communities and, geographically, in the broader region in which drug trafficking occurs. The interlinkages between firearms and drug trafficking can fuel armed conflict and terrorism by facilitating the funding and acquisition of weapons by non-state armed groups and terrorists through drug trafficking criminal networks and activities.

Vienna: UNODC, 2024. 52p.

By Sophie L. Kjærvik, Victoria J. Blondell, Nicholas D. Thomson

Gun violence remains a persistent public health issue in the United States. Two notable risk factors for violence include childhood maltreatment and exposure to community violence. Yet, little is known about the link between childhood maltreatment and gun violence in adulthood and whether a lack of community safety (i.e., increased firearm presence and violence) may explain the association. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between childhood maltreatment (i.e., emotional abuse and neglect, physical abuse and neglect, and sexual abuse) and firearm violence while examining the potential mediating role of neighborhood concerns among adults hospitalized with violent injuries. Participants and setting: The study included 329 violently injured adults (Mage = 32.7) recruited from a Level 1 Trauma Center in Virginia. Methods: Participants completed assessments of childhood maltreatment, neighborhood concerns, and firearm violence. Results: All forms of childhood maltreatment, except for emotional neglect, were related to firearm violence. Neighborhood concerns partially mediate the relation between both emotional abuse and physical abuse and firearm violence and fully mediate the relation between both sexual abuse and physical neglect and firearm violence. The results show the critical importance of addressing both individual-level trauma and broader social determinants of health (i.e., community violence) in violence prevention efforts. Conclusion: By understanding the pathways through which childhood maltreatment manifests in community settings and contributes to firearm violence, the findings offer valuable insights for informing targeted interventions and policy initiatives aimed at reducing the prevalence of firearm-related violence and fostering safer neighborhood

Unpublished paper, 2024. 43p.