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The rising cost of retail theft? Trends in steal from retail to June 2023

By Alana Cook

As with many property crimes, incidents of retail theft fell significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since October 2021, however, retail theft offences have been steadily increasing, up 47.5% year-on-year to June 2023. This paper considers the increase in retail theft up to June 2023 focusing on the regions where retail theft is increasing, what items is being stolen and from where, and who appears to be responsible. Findings show: • The sharp increase in retail theft following the removal of pandemic related restrictions has brought retail theft volumes back to equivalence with pre-pandemic figures in both Greater Sydney and Regional NSW. The absence of an increase in theft reports beyond what was reported prior to the pandemic suggests the upward trend reflects a return to pre-pandemic offending levels. The trend does not support emerging external factors, such as the cost-of-living crisis, driving an increase in this offence. • The most frequently reported stolen item in retail theft is liquor, including bourbon, whiskey, and vodka (stolen in 37% of incidents), followed by clothing (22%). Retail theft of personal items, such as perfume and cosmetics, has declined in the past five years (stolen in 13% of incidents). • Locations recording the biggest increase in steal from retail incidents over the past five years are licenced premises and general wholesalers. Department or clothing stores and chemists have reported the largest decreases. • $440 was the average value of items stolen in retail theft incidents in 2022/23. • Almost half of all retail theft offenders are aged 30 to 39 years but after accounting for population, young people aged 14 to 17 years had the highest rate of involvement with NSW Police.

(Bureau Brief No. 168). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research 2023. 10p.

The long and short of it: The impact of Apprehended Domestic Violence Order duration on offending and breaches

By Adam Teperski and Stewart Boiteux

AIM To examine whether longer apprehended domestic violence orders (ADVO) are associated with changes in domestic violence (DV) offending and ADVO breaches. METHOD A dataset of 13,717 defendants who were placed on an ADVO after a DV incident between January 2016 and April 2018 was extracted from the NSW Bureau of Crime and Statistics and Research’s ADVO database. This included 10,820 defendants subject to a final 12-month order, and 2,897 defendants subject to a final 24-month order. We utilised an entropy balancing matching approach to ensure groups of defendants subjected to differing ADVO lengths were comparable and implemented an event study analysis to examine quarterly differences in offending outcomes in the three years after the start of the order. In doing so, we were able to examine relative differences in offending in the first 12 months (where both groups were subject to an ADVO), the second 12 months (where only the 24-month ADVO group were subject to an ADVO), and the third 12 months (where neither group were subject to an ADVO). RESULTS In the 12 to 24 month period, where ADVOs with a longer duration were active and shorter ADVOs were not, longer ADVOs were associated with increased breach offending and decreased DV offending. Specifically, in the 5th, 6th and 7th quarters after the beginning of a final order we observed 3.4 percentage points (p.p.), 4.1 p.p., and 2.3 p.p. increases in defendants breaching their ADVO, respectively. When considering baseline rates of breaching, this represents relative increases of 79% to 161%. In the 5th, 6th, and 7th quarters after the beginning of a finalised order, longer ADVOs were associated with respective 1.8 p.p., 2.0 p.p., and 3.1 p.p. decreases in DV offending, reflecting relative decreases in DV offending by 41% to 59%. We find no group differences in DV offending or breaches in the subsequent 12 months, when ADVOs for both groups had expired. While the study examined multiple factors related to both longer ADVO length and offending, we cannot exclude the possibility that unobserved factors may be influencing our results. CONCLUSION Relative to 12-month ADVOs, 24-month ADVOs were associated with an increase in the probability that an offender breaches the conditions of their ADVO, and a decrease in the probability that an offender commits a proven DV offence.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 261). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research., 2023. 34p.

The impact of changes to liquor licensing policy on violent crime in NSW, 2000-2019

By  Ziyang Lyua, Suzanne Poyntonb and Scott A. Sissona

AIM To quantify the effects of individual liquor licensing policies introduced in New South Wales (NSW) over the last decade on rates of violent crime. METHOD: The effects of individual state-wide policies on non-domestic assaults in NSW and additional local policies in the Sydney Central Business District Entertainment Precinct (CBD) and the Kings Cross Entertainment Precinct (KCP) from 2000 to 2019 were quantified using time series intervention models. We used a vector auto regression (VAR) model to create counterfactual datasets. These datasets were derived from proxy data outside the study area and helped predict potential assault outcomes without the policy implementation. RESULTS: The liquor licensing policies introduced by the NSW Government between 2008 and 2018 contributed to a significant decline in non-domestic assaults, both in Sydney and across NSW. By the end of 2019, non-domestic assaults had reduced by an estimated 19% in NSW, 45% in the Sydney CBD, and 84% in the KCP. Policies restricting late night (or 24-hour) trading of licensed premises and those targeting enforcement toward the highest risk venues contributed most to these declines. CONCLUSION: This research adds to the mounting evidence that restricting trading hours can substantially reduce the risks associated with acute alcohol intoxication and can be a cost-effective crime reduction strategy when combined with enforcement that targets the small number of premises that account for most of the harm.

(Crime and Justice Bulletin No. 263). 

Sydney: NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. , 2023. 27p.

Risk factors for receiving requests to facilitate child sexual exploitation and abuse on dating apps and websites

By Coen Teunissen, Dana Thomsen, Sarah Napier and Hayley Boxall

This study investigated the risk factors for dating app and website users receiving requests from other users to facilitate child sexual exploitation and abuse (CSEA). It did so by analysing data from a large survey (n=9,987) of dating app and website users residing in Australia.

Dating app and website users who were younger, lived with children, were Indigenous or had a health condition (ie disability) were more likely than other users to be asked to facilitate CSEA. Further, respondents who were more frequent or active dating app/website users, who paid for the dating service or who linked their social media account to their dating profile were also more likely to receive requests for CSEA. These findings can assist online dating companies to implement new features and education messages that protect users and their children from harm.

Trends & issues in crime and criminal justice no. 686. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology. 2024. 18p

Coleridge's Laws: A Study of Coleridge in Malta

By Barry Hough and Howard Davis

Samuel Taylor Coleridge is best known as a great poet and literary theorist, but for one, quite short, period of his life he held real political power — acting as Public Secretary to the British Civil Commissioner in Malta in 1805. This was a formative experience for Coleridge which he later identified as being one of the most instructive in his entire life. In this book, Barry Hough and Howard Davis show how Coleridge's actions whilst in a position of power differ markedly from the idealism he had advocated before taking office — shedding new light on Coleridge's sense of political and legal morality. Meticulously researched and including newly discovered archival materials, Coleridge's Laws provides detailed analysis of the laws and public notices drafted by Coleridge, together with the first published translations of them. Drawing from a wealth of primary sources, Hough and Davis identify the political challenges facing Coleridge and reveal that, in attempting to win over the Maltese public to support Britain's strategic interests, Coleridge was complicit in acts of government which were both inconsistent with the rule of law and contrary to his professed beliefs. Coleridge's willingness to overlook accepted legal processes and personal misgivings for political expediency is disturbing and, as explained by Michael John Kooy in his extensive introduction, necessarily alters our understanding of the author and his writing. Coleridge's Laws contributes in new ways to the current debates about Coleridge's achievements, British colonialism and its engagement with the rule of law, nationhood and the effectiveness of the British administration of Malta. It provides essential reading for anybody interested in Coleridge specifically and the Romantics more generally, for political and legal historians and for students of colonial government.

Cambridge, UK: Open Book Publishers, 2010. 405p.

Factors Associated With Domestic Violence Against Women at Different Stages of Life: Findings From a 19-Year Longitudinal Dataset From the MINIMat Trial in Rural Bangladesh (2001–2020)

By Shirin Zia, Jannatul Ferdous Antu, Mahfuz Al Mamun, Kausar Parvin, and Ruchira Tabassum Naved

Despite the abundance of literature, longitudinal studies evaluating the factors associated with domestic violence (DV) at different stages and over longer periods of women’s lives are rare. We evaluated factors associated with physical and sexual DV during pregnancy, at 10-year, and 18-year follow-ups after pregnancy and within a 19-year period of life using a cohort of women (n= 1,126) who participated in the Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions, Matlab trial in rural Bangladesh. Data on women’s experience of DV, social and economic characteristics, empowerment, and family condition were recorded in a similar manner during pregnancy and at 10- and 18-year follow-ups, using standard questionnaires. Multivariate logistic regression models and generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate factors associated with women’s experience of physical and sexual violence at each discrete time point and over a period of 19 years, respectively. During pregnancy, women were more likely to experience violence if they were members of microcredit programs/non-governmental organizations (NGOs), living in an extended family and had lower wealth status. At the 10- and 18-year follow-ups, higher levels of decision-making and higher wealth status were protective against the experience of violence. At the 18-year follow-up, women with larger age differences from their husbands were less likely to experience violence, while membership in microcredit programs/NGOs was associated with higher odds of experiencing violence among women. Within a period of 19 years, a higher level of education, living in an extended family, higher decision-making level and higher wealth index were protective against the experience of violence, while membership in microcredit programs/NGOs was a risk factor. In conclusion, this study showed that correlates of violence might change at different time points in women’s life. Thus, policies and programs should consider the stage of women’s lives while planning interventions for addressing violence against women.

Stockholm, Sweden: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 22p.

The Impact of Stalking and Its Predictors: Characterizing the Needs of Stalking Victims

By Jennifer E. Storey, Afroditi Pina, and Cherise S. Williams

Victims of stalking suffer severe and varied impacts requiring assessment and treatment. Research to inform support is limited. This study examines a national sample of stalking victims to identify the types and prevalence of impact reported and the predictors of impact. A secondary analysis of 258 stalking cases reported to a stalking charity was conducted. Four categories of victim reported impact were coded; psychological and substance abuse, physical health, practical impact on life, and impact on others. Stalking duration, severity, the diversity of stalking behaviors, and the relationship between the victim and perpetrator were investigated as predictors of impact. In all, 48 types of impact were identified with victims experiencing an average of four types. Psychological impact was the most prevalent (91.5%). Several new forms of impact were identified including a variety of impacts on persons known to the victim (e.g., children, friends) in 35.3% of the sample. Increased diversity of stalking behavior was predictive of impact in all models (explaining 11% of the variance in total impact scores), except for physical impact which was not analyzed due to low prevalence. Stalking impact was prevalent and varied, suggesting that victims (and potentially those close to them) require trauma-informed support from clinicians. Future research should include the development of a stalking impact index to improve the consistency of research and clinical assessment of need.

Canterbury, UK: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 26p.

Self-Reports of Sexual Violence Outside of Survey Reference Periods: Implications for Measurement

By Gena K. Dufour, Charlene Y. Senn, and Nicole K. Jeffrey

Accurate measurement of sexual violence (SV) victimization is important for informing research, policy, and service provision. Measures such as the Sexual Experiences Survey (SES) that use behaviorally specific language and a specified reference period (e.g., since age 14, over the past 12 months) are considered best practice and have substantially improved SV estimates given that so few incidents are reported to police. However, to date, we know little about whether estimates are affected by respondents’ reporting of incidents that occurred outside of the specified reference period (i.e., reference period errors). The current study explored the extent, nature, and impact on incidence estimates of reference period errors in two large, diverse samples of post-secondary students. Secondary analysis was conducted of data gathered using a follow-up date question after the Sexual Experiences Survey–Short Form Victimization. Between 8% and 68% of rape and attempted rape victims made reference period errors, with the highest proportion of errors occurring in the survey with the shortest reference period (1 month). These errors caused minor to moderate changes in time period-specific incidence estimates (i.e., excluding respondents with errors reduced estimates by up to 7%). Although including a date question does not guarantee that all time period-related errors will be identified, it can improve the accuracy of SV estimates, which is crucial for informing policy and prevention. Researchers measuring SV within specific reference periods should consider collecting dates of reported incidents as best practice.

Ontario, Canada: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 26p.

Cumulative Incidence of Physical and Sexual Dating Violence: Insights From A Long-term Longitudinal Study

By Jeff R. Temple, Elizabeth Baumler,and Christie Shumate; et al.

Decades of inquiry on intimate partner violence show consistent results: violence is woefully common and psychologically and economically costly. Policy to prevent and effectively intervene upon such violence hinges upon comprehensive understanding of this phenomenon at a population level. The current study prospectively estimates the cumulative incidence of sexual and physical dating violence (DV) victimization/perpetration over a 12-year timeframe (2010–2021) using diverse participants assessed annually from age 15 to 26. Data are from Waves 1–13 of an ongoing longitudinal study. Since 2010 (except for 2018 and 2019), participants were assessed on past-year physical and sexual DV victimization and perpetration. Participants (n= 1,042; 56% female; Mage baseline = 15) were originally recruited from seven public high schools in southeast Texas. The sample consisted of Black/African American (30%), White (31%), Hispanic (31%), and Mixed/Other (8%) participants. Across 12 years of data collection, 27.3% experienced sexual DV victimization and 46.1% had experienced physical DV victimization by age 26. Further, 14.8% had perpetrated at least one act of sexual DV and 39.0% had perpetrated at least one act of physical DV against a partner by this age. A 12-year cumulative assessment of physical and sexual DV rendered prevalence estimates of both victimization and perpetration that exceeded commonly and consistently reported rates in the field, especially on studies that relied on lifetime or one-time specified retrospective reporting periods. These data suggest community youth are at continued and sustained risk for DV onset across the transition into emerging adulthood, necessitating early adolescent prevention and intervention efforts that endure through late adolescence, emerging adulthood, and beyond. From a research perspective, our findings point to the need for assessing DV on a repeated basis over multiple timepoints to better gauge the full extent of this continued public health crisis.

Galveston, TX: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2024. 21p.

Coping with Community Violence: Perspectives of African American Young Adult Men and Hispanic/Latino Young Adult Men

By Kourtney A. D. Byrd,  David K. Lohrmann, and Brittanni Wright

Further study is needed regarding the intersection of community violence exposure, coping strategies, and health behaviors among young adult African American men and Hispanic/Latino men. This study did so in Lake County, Indiana, which contains multiple areas with disproportionate prevalence of violence relative to population size. Approximately 22 miles from Chicago, Lake County includes noteworthy mid-sized cities such as Gary, Hammond, and East Chicago. This study explored the perceptions of African American men and Hispanic/Latino men ages 18 to 25 regarding coping strategies and both healthy and health risk behaviors after directly witnessing or indirectly experiencing a violent act or event. We used aspects of social cognitive theory to design this community-based participatory research study. Thirteen males who self-identified as African American, Hispanic/Latino, or both, completed 34- to 80-minute, audio-recorded phone interviews. Audio recordings were transcribed, and NVivo 12 Windows was used by the research team (primary researchers and two coders) to complete transcript analysis. Findings from this study provided insight around African American men and Hispanic/Latino men regarding (a) witnessing violence directly or indirectly experiencing violence; (b) changes in everyday life experiences; (c) coping strategies that involved socio-emotional health, spiritual health, social health, and risky health behaviors; (d) rationales for not asking for help; (e) observations of significant others’ coping; (f) what to do differently in the future; (g) beliefs about mentors; and (h) beliefs about mental health providers. Delving into participants’ experiences revealed that African American men and Hispanic/Latino men in Lake County, Indiana chose to adopt a range of health risk and health positive strategies after directly witnessing or indirectly experiencing violence. Becoming knowledgeable about African American men’s and Hispanic/Latino men’s diverse coping strategies and health behaviors may help inform the community about how best to co-create spaces that aim to alleviate the traumatic experience of having directly or indirectly experienced community violence.

Indianapolis, IN: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2024. 31p.

Intimate Partner Homicides in Norway 1990–2020: An Analysis of Incidence and Characteristics

By Solveig K. B. Vatnar, Christine Friestad, and Stål Bjørkly

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is an extreme outcome of intimate partner violence (IPV). It is a societal challenge that needs to be investigated over time to see whether changes occur concerning the incidence of IPH, IPH characteristics, socioeconomic factors, and contact with service providers. This study includes the total Norwegian cohort of IPHs between 1990 and 2019 with a final conviction (N = 224). Poisson regression was applied to model the incidence rate of homicide and IPH between 1990 and 2020 as well as the incidence rates of immigrant perpetrators and victims. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to test the association between characteristics and period 1990–2012 compared to after 2012 as dependent variable. The results show that though homicide incidence rates in Norway declined steadily and significantly after 1990, IPH rates did not begin to decline until 2015. The following IPH characteristics showed reduced incidence after 2012: IPH-suicide, perpetrators with a criminal record, and IPHs perpetrated subsequent to preventive interventions towards the perpetrator. Sentence length in IPH cases had increased. Changes were not observed for any of the other IPH characteristics investigated. IPH is often the culmination of long-term violence and can be prevented, even if risk assessment is challenging due to the low base rates.

Oslo, Norway: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 27p

Intimate Partner Homicide: Comparison Between Homicide and Homicide-Suicide in Portugal

By Mariana Gonçalves, Eduardo Gomes, and Marlene Matos 

Intimate partner homicide (IPH) is a tragic event. Studies involving the comparison between IPH and intimate partner homicide-suicide (IPH-S) are scarce, with few studies in Portugal about this issue. The current study aims to compare IPH and IPH-S perpetrators, the victim–perpetrator relationships dynamics, and homicide circumstances. The data was collected through the analysis of 78 judicial processes of IPH that occurred in Portugal, between 2010 and 2015. Of the cases, 51 were IPH, 20 were IPH-S cases, and seven were attempted suicide cases, being perpetrated in 84.6% (n= 66) for male perpetrators. Suicide after intimate homicide were all committed by men. All judicial processes analyzed refer to heterosexual relationships. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed to compare the groups concerning perpetrator and victim sociodemographic characteristics, victim-perpetrator dyadic dynamics, and crime circumstances. The results show mostly common trends between the two groups with some differentiating factors when compared individually (e.g., perpetrator professional status, criminal records). Regression logistic analysis showed no differences between IPH and IPH-S.

Braga, Portugal: Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2023. 22p.

Confounds and overestimations in fake review detection: Experimentally controlling for product-ownership and data-origin

By Felix Soldner, Bennett Kleinberg, Shane D. Johnson

The popularity of online shopping is steadily increasing. At the same time, fake product reviews are published widely and have the potential to affect consumer purchasing behavior. In response, previous work has developed automated methods utilizing natural language processing approaches to detect fake product reviews. However, studies vary considerably in how well they succeed in detecting deceptive reviews, and the reasons for such differences are unclear. A contributing factor may be the multitude of strategies used to collect data, introducing potential confounds which affect detection performance. Two possible confounds are data-origin (i.e., the dataset is composed of more than one source) and product ownership (i.e., reviews written by individuals who own or do not own the reviewed product). In the present study, we investigate the effect of both confounds for fake review detection. Using an experimental design, we manipulate data-origin, product ownership, review polarity, and veracity. Supervised learning analysis suggests that review veracity (60.26–69.87%) is somewhat detectable but reviews additionally confounded with product-ownership (66.19–74.17%), or with data-origin (84.44–86.94%) are easier to classify. Review veracity is most easily classified if confounded with product-ownership and data-origin combined (87.78–88.12%). These findings are moderated by review polarity. Overall, our findings suggest that detection accuracy may have been overestimated in previous studies, provide possible explanations as to why, and indicate how future studies might be designed to provide less biased estimates of detection accuracy. 

PLoS ONE 17(12): 2022

Testing human ability to detect ‘deepfake’ images of human faces 

By Sergi D. Bray , Shane D. Johnson and Bennett Kleinberg

Deepfakes’ are computationally created entities that falsely represent reality. They can take image, video, and audio modalities, and pose a threat to many areas of systems and societies, comprising a topic of interest to various aspects of cybersecurity and cybersafety. In 2020, a workshop consulting AI experts from academia, policing, government, the private sector, and state security agencies ranked deepfakes as the most serious AI threat. These experts noted that since fake material can propagate through many uncontrolled routes, changes in citizen behaviour may be the only effective defence. This study aims to assess human ability to identify image deepfakes of human faces (these being uncurated output from the StyleGAN2 algorithm as trained on the FFHQ dataset) from a pool of non-deepfake images (these being random selection of images from the FFHQ dataset), and to assess the effectiveness of some simple interventions intended to improve detection accuracy. Using an online survey, participants (N = 280) were randomly allocated to one of four groups: a control group, and three assistance interventions. Each participant was shown a sequence of 20 images randomly selected from a pool of 50 deepfake images of human faces and 50 images of real human faces. Participants were asked whether each image was AI-generated or not, to report their confidence, and to describe the reasoning behind each response. Overall detection accuracy was only just above chance and none of the interventions significantly improved this. Of equal concern was the fact that participants’ confidence in their answers was high and unrelated to accuracy. Assessing the results on a per-image basis reveals that participants consistently found certain images easy to label correctly and certain images difficult, but reported similarly high confidence regardless of the image. Thus, although participant accuracy was 62% overall, this accuracy across images ranged quite evenly between 85 and 30%, with an accuracy of below 50% for one in every five images. We interpret the findings as suggesting that there is a need for an urgent call to action to address this threat. 

Journal of Cybersecurity, 2023, 1–18 

Household occupancy and burglary: A case study using COVID-19 restrictions 

By Michael J. Frith  , Kate J. Bowers  , Shane D. Johnson 

Introduction: In response to COVID-19, governments imposed various restrictions on movement and activities. According to the routine activity perspective, these should alter where crime occurs. For burglary, greater household occupancy should increase guardianship against residential burglaries, particularly during the day considering factors such as working from home. Conversely, there should be less eyes on the street to protect against non-residential burglaries. Methods: In this paper, we test these expectations using a spatio-temporal model with crime and Google Community Mobility data. Results: As expected, burglary declined during the pandemic and restrictions. Different types of burglary were, however, affected differently but largely consistent with theoretical expectation. Residential and attempted residential burglaries both decreased significantly. This was particularly the case during the day for completed residential burglaries. Moreover, while changes were coincident with the timing and relaxation of restrictions, they were better explained by fluctuations in household occupancy. However, while there were significant decreases in non-residential and attempted non-residential burglary, these did not appear to be related to changes to activity patterns, but rather the lockdown phase. Conclusions: From a theoretical perspective, the results generally provide further support for routine activity perspective. From a practical perspective, they suggest considerations for anticipating future burglary trends 

Journal of Criminal Justice, v. 82, 2022

The Effect of COVID‑19 Restrictions on Routine Activities and Online Crime 

By Shane D. Johnson and  Manja Nikolovska

Objectives Routine activity theory suggests that levels of crime are affected by peoples’ activity patterns. Here, we examine if, through their impact on people’s on- and off-line activities, COVID-19 restriction affected fraud committed on- and off-line during the pandemic. Our expectation was that levels of online offending would closely follow changes to mobility and online activity—with crime increasing as restrictions were imposed (and online activity increased) and declining as they were relaxed. For doorstep fraud, which has a different opportunity structure, our expectation was that the reverse would be true. Method COVID-19 restrictions systematically disrupted people’s activity patterns, creating quasi-experimental conditions well-suited to testing the effects of “interventions” on crime. We exploit those conditions using ARIMA time series models and UK data for online shopping fraud, hacking, doorstep fraud, online sales, and mobility to test hypotheses. Doorstep fraud is modelled as a non-equivalent dependent variable, allowing us to test whether findings were selective and in line with theoretical expectations. Results After controlling for other factors, levels of crime committed online were positively associated with monthly variation in online activities and negatively associated with monthly variation in mobility. In contrast, and as expected, monthly variation in doorstep fraud was positively associated with changes in mobility. Conclusions We find evidence consistent with routine activity theory, suggesting that disruptions to people’s daily activity patterns afect levels of crime committed both on- and off-line. The theoretical implications of the findings, and the need to develop a better evidence base about what works to reduce online crime, are discussed. 

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 2022.

Rethinking Criminal Propensity and Character: Cohort Inequalities and the Power of Social Change

By Robert J. Sampson and L. Ash Smith

The social transformations of crime and punishment in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries challenge traditional conceptions of criminal propensity and character. A life-course framework on cohort differences in growing up during these times of social change highlights large-scale inequalities in life experiences. Entire cohorts of children have come of age in such different historical contexts that typical markers of a crime-prone character, such as being a chronic offender or having an arrest record, are as much a function of societal change as of an individual’s early life propensities or background characteristics, including classic risk factors emphasized in criminology. When we are thus matters as much as, and perhaps more than, who we are—despite law, practice, and theory privileging the latter. Because crime over the life course is shaped by changing socio-historical conditions, it must be studied as such. Multi-cohort studies provide a key strategy for doing so, inspiring a reconsideration of criminal propensity and policies premised on unchanging predictors of future criminality. Developmental and life-course criminology should elevate the study of cohort differences in social change and, ultimately, societal character.

Crime and Justice, Volume 50, 2021

Exploring Data Augmentation for Gender-Based Hate Speech Detection

By Muhammad Amien Ibrahim, Samsul Arifin and Eko Setyo Purwanto

Social media moderation is a crucial component to establish healthy online communities and ensuring online safety from hate speech and offensive language. In many cases, hate speech may be targeted at specific gender which could be expressed in many different languages on social media platforms such as Indonesian Twitter. However, difficulties such as data scarcity and the imbalanced gender-based hate speech dataset in Indonesian tweets have slowed the development and implementation of automatic social media moderation. Obtaining more data to increase the number of samples may be costly in terms of resources required to gather and annotate the data. This study looks at the usage of data augmentation methods to increase the amount of textual dataset while keeping the quality of the augmented data. Three augmentation strategies are explored in this study: Random insertion, back translation, and a sequential combination of back translation and random insertion. Additionally, the study examines the preservation of the increased data labels. The performance result demonstrates that classification models trained with augmented data generated from random insertion strategy outperform the other approaches. In terms of label preservation, the three augmentation approaches have been shown to offer enough label preservation without compromising the meaning of the augmented data. The findings imply that by increasing the amount of the dataset while preserving the original label, data augmentation could be utilized to solve issues such as data scarcity and dataset imbalance.

United States, Journal Of Computer Science. 2023, 9pg

Global Risks Report 2024: 19th Edition

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM; MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES; ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP

From the document: "The 'Global Risks Report 2024' presents the findings of the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), which captures insights from nearly 1,500 global experts. The report analyses global risks through three time frames to support decision-makers in balancing current crises and longer-term priorities. Chapter 1 explores the most severe current risks, and those ranked highest by survey respondents, over a two-year period, analysing in depth the three risks that have rapidly accelerated into the top 10 rankings over the two-year horizon. Chapter 2 focuses on the top risks emerging over the next decade against a backdrop of geostrategic, climate, technological and demographic shifts, diving deeper into four specific risk outlooks. The report concludes by considering approaches for addressing complex and non-linear aspects of global risks during this period of global fragmentation."

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM; MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES; ZURICH INSURANCE GROUP

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Violence in Schools: Prevalence, Impact, and Interventions

BY SMARRELLI, GABRIELA; WU, DONGYI; BAAGO-RASMUSSEN, LINE; HARES, SUSANNAH; NAKER, DIPAK

From the document: "This brief has been developed to support conversations on addressing violence in and through education. It focuses specifically on violence against children in and around schools, while fully recognising that different forms of violence are interconnected, and occur in multiple settings including homes, communities, and online. The brief provides an overview of the magnitude and effects of violence in and around schools and a review of evidence-based interventions aimed at eliminating school-related violence. The brief should not be viewed as an expansive summary. Readers interested in further details are recommended to visit the studies cited in the references."

CENTER FOR GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT; COALITION FOR GOOD SCHOOLS; SAFE TO LEARN

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