By Jody van der Heyde, Andrew Faull and Martin Sycholt

Trust in the police is vital to a functioning democracy, but relations between South Africa’s residents and police have long been characterised by mistrust. This report introduces procedural justice as a cost-effective, evidence-informed practice that can increase public trust and confidence in the police, and enhance police legitimacy and social cohesion. The report provides an overview of the theory and presents data on trust, customer satisfaction and police morale in South Africa.

South Africa: Institute for Security Studies, 2023. 16p.

By The City & County of San Francisco Police Department

In 2018, the San Francisco Police Department formed a Task Force on Strategic Police Staffing (“Staffing Task Force”) per direction from the Board of Supervisors and the Police Commission as adopted in Resolution No. 63-17. Resolution No. 63-17, supported and signed by the Mayor, “[urged] the San Francisco Police Commission to form a Task Force, in collaboration with the San Francisco Police Chief, on Strategic Police Staffing and with the purpose of determining the best methodology for establishing staffing levels in the San Francisco Police Department.” Resolution 63-17 was adopted to initiate an update to the 1994 Proposition D Charter amendment by determining SFPD staffing levels using a workload methodology based on the demand for police services rather than utilizing other metrics such as population size. As prescribed in Resolution No. 63-17, the Staffing Task Force included a cross-section of community stakeholders, nationally recognized police staffing experts, data analysts, City and County of San Francisco agency partners, and Police Commissioners. In early 2019, the San Francisco Police Department hired police staffing expert Matrix Consulting Group, Ltd (“Matrix”) to conduct a comprehensive staffing analysis of the Department. Matrix was directed to develop an understanding of SFPD staffing, operations, and workload; and to develop methodologies to use in the analysis. In 2019, Matrix developed the staffing analysis framework and presented the methodologies throughout the duration of the project to the Staffing Task Force to seek input and direction. In early 2020, Matrix released its report that described the methodologies used to establish SFPD staffing levels, developed in collaboration with the Staffing Task Force; and provided the results of the staffing analysis. In November 2020, San Francisco voters approved Proposition E, amending the City Charter to remove the previously established 1,971 baseline staffing level and requiring the Police Department to submit a report and recommendation on staffing levels every two years to the Police Commission for consideration when approving the Department’s budget. The purpose of this report is to recommend baseline staffing levels for the San Francisco Police Department using the rigorous, industry-reputed methodologies developed and used by Matrix Consulting Group and vetted by the Staffing Task Force.

City & County of San Francisco Police Department. 2023. 213p.

By Jonathan S. Masur, Aurélie Ouss, John Rappaport

We document and discuss the implications of a striking feature of modern American policing: the stasis of police labor forces. Using an original employment dataset assembled through public records requests, we show that, after the first few years on a job, officers rarely change employers, and intermediate officer ranks are filled almost exclusively through promotion rather than lateral hiring. Policing is like a sports league, if you removed trades and free agency and left only the draft in place. We identify both nonlegal and legal causes of this phenomenon—ranging from geographic monopolies to statutory and collectively bargained rules about pensions, rank, and seniority—and discuss its normative implications. On the one hand, job stability may encourage investment in training and expertise by agencies and officers alike; it may also attract some high-quality candidates, including candidates from underrepresented backgrounds, to the profession. On the other hand, low labor mobility can foster sclerosis in police departments, entrenching old ways of policing. Limited outside options may lead officers to stay in positions that suit them poorly, decreasing morale and productivity and potentially contributing to the scale of policing harms. In turn, the lack of labor mobility makes it all the more important to police officers to retain the jobs they have. This encourages them to insist on extensive labor protections and to enforce norms like the “blue wall of silence,” which exacerbate the problem of police misconduct. We suggest reforms designed to confer the advantages of labor mobility while ameliorating its costs..

Public Law and Legal Theory Working Paper. Chicago: University of Chicago School of Law, Chicago Unbound, 2023. 60p.

By Charles Fain Lehman

Like other major cities, Portland, Oregon, has experienced a surge in crime and disorder over the past three years. But unlike other major cities, Portland is uniquely ill-equipped to deal with this problem, because its police department is uniquely understaffed. With just 1.26 officers per every 1,000 residents, the Portland Police Bureau (PPB) ranks 48th among the nation’s 50 largest cities for its staffing-to-population ratio. As a result, PPB struggles to provide even basic service, taking up to half an hour to respond to high-priority calls. As this report shows, the staffing crisis has both short-run and long-run causes. In the short run, the city’s particularly harmful riots following the 2020 murder of George Floyd, as well as its leadership’s embrace of the “defund the police” movement, dealt a massive blow to police morale, driving mass resignations and retirements, which have continued to hamstring operations. But that shift was just the culmination of years of declining staffing-to-population ratios, driven by challenges in hiring and training that preexist • Increasing officer pay • Civilianizing PPB desk jobs • Increasing the number of employees working on processing job applications • Reducing the length of academy and field training • Conducting PPB training in Portland, rather than in the state facility in Salem • Working to regain the trust of police officers by unambiguously emphasizing support for them and their profession the protests. To their credit, Portland’s civilian leadership has belatedly recognized that increasing PPB staffing is the only way out of the current crisis. To that end, this report recommends a number of steps that Portland can take to address its staffing problems, including

New York: Manhattan Institute, 2023. 16p.

By Cynthia Lum, Christopher S. Koper, and Xiaoyun Wu

The protests following the killing of George Floyd in the summer of 2020 led to contentious discussions and debates in many cities about policing, with some calling to “defund the police.” However, this debate has generally proceeded without adequate research about either the scale or nature of issues that the police handle and the potential consequences of the proposed reform efforts. To respond to this research gap, we analyze millions of 911 calls for service across nine U.S. agencies. We report on the types of calls for service that the police handle, including how frequently different calls arise, how much time agencies spend on different categories of calls, and the outcomes of those calls. We find that the amount and types of incidents for which people call the police are voluminous, with the vast majority not obviously transferable to other organizations or government sectors without significant resource expenditures or adjustments. However, if the police retain these responsibilities, they also need to reconsider how they can more effectively address community concerns.

Police Quarterly 2022, Vol. 25(3) 255–280

By Noah Smith-Drelich

For all the discussion of defunding the police, far less attention has been given to how the police are funded. This Article shines a light on the wide range of sources, public and private, from which police draw their funding. This examination complicates the widely accepted notion of police as locally controlled and wholly public entities. Even when police policy-making remains ostensibly in local hands, funding from nonlocal or nonpublic sources will distort the incentives underlying policing decisions. This Article examines the significant influence of external funding on the police, articulating the role that the source of police funding plays in police control and accountability. I conclude by proposing two novel reforms, each of which could be adopted under current law. First, the distorting effects of outside funding could be countered by adopting a more dynamic remedial approach in suits for constitutional wrongdoing. Second, these distorting effects could be reduced or even eliminated entirely by barring local agencies and departments from accepting outside funding.

Ohio State Law Journal, Vol. 84:3, 2023. 55p.

By Roman Gabriel Rivera

There is growing demand for reforms to the U.S. criminal justice system. Nevertheless, there are significant questions and relatively few answers. This dissertation studies multiple U.S. criminal justice system issues using detailed administrative data from Cook County, Illinois: Does policing the police increase crime? Does the composition of a police officer's academy cohort influence their future outcomes? Is pretrial electronic monitoring an attractive alternative to pretrial release and detention? To answer these questions, I use administrative data from Chicago and Cook County, Illinois, on the Chicago Police Department, Cook County Jail, and Circuit Court of Cook County, and a range of econometric methods.

In Chapter 1, I study the effect of pretrial electronic monitoring (EM) as an alternative to pretrial release and pretrial detention (jail) in Cook County, Illinois. EM often involves a defendant wearing an electronic ankle bracelet that tracks their movement and aims to deter pretrial misconduct. Using the quasi-random assignment of bond court judges, I estimate the effect of EM versus release and EM versus detention on pretrial misconduct, case outcomes, and future recidivism. I develop a novel method for the semiparametric estimation of marginal treatment effects in ordered choice environments, with which I construct relevant treatment effects. Relative to release, EM increases new cases pretrial due to bond violations while reducing new cases for low-level crimes and failures to appear in court. Relative to detention, EM increases low-level pretrial misconduct but improves defendant case outcomes and reduces cost-weighted future recidivism. Finally, I bound EM's pretrial crime reduction effect. I find that EM is likely an adequate substitute for pretrial detention. However, it is unclear that EM prevents enough high-cost crime to justify its use relative to release, particularly for defendants who are more likely to be released.

Chapter 3, joint with Bocar Ba, studies and differentiates between the effects of oversight and outrage on policing. Previous studies estimating the impact of police oversight on crime rely on major policing scandals as shocks to examine the impact of oversight on crime. We argue that the simultaneous effect of public outrage on officer behavior and crime contaminates these results, and we provide a conceptual framework that distinguishes between oversight and outrage. We identify two events relating to unexpected court rulings in Chicago that increased oversight and caused a decline in reported misconduct but had virtually no public reaction. Despite the decrease in reported misconduct, crime and officer activity were unaffected. We contrast this with a major policing scandal, after which we find both a rise in crime rates without an equivalent increase in arrests and a decline in officer stops and use of force. Our results suggest that police oversight can reduce misconduct without increasing crime.

New York: Columbia University, 2023. 299p.

By Nicole Gelinas

  Since mid-2020, government spending on American police departments has come under intense scrutiny nationwide. The New York Police Department (NYPD) is no exception. Leftwing critics supporting the “defund the police” movement charge that spending on police is crowding out necessary spending on civilian agencies that provide education, housing, health care, and social services. Even moderate Democrats and supposedly neutral news outlets accept the premise that police spending is either too high, relative to the rest of the city budget, or, at minimum, keeping up with the rest of the city budget. What’s missing from the “defund” argument and even from news sources is context. How large is the NYPD budget, relative to the overall city budget? How has spending on policing changed over the years and decades, relative to the entire budget? How large is uniformed-police staffing, relative to the overall city workforce? To answer these questions, this paper analyzes four decades of New York City police spending, from the recovery after the 1970s fiscal crisis through the pandemic years of the early 2020s. This paper puts spending and officer headcount in the context of the overall budget. The paper finds that operational spending on the uniformed NYPD, contrary to conventional wisdom, has shrunk substantially as a share of the city budget since the early 1980s, both in terms of spending and the size of the uniformed-officer workforce.

New York: The Manhattan Institute, 2023. 13p.

City and County of Denver, Officer of the Auditor  

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of the Denver Police Department’s recruitment and retention practices and determine whether it adequately uses data to assess its resources and ensure effective operations.

Background: The Denver Police Department and its more than 1,400 uniformed officers strive to keep the public safe through crime prevention and crime reduction strategies. Law enforcement agencies nationwide are struggling to hire and retain officers. This is in part because of greater scrutiny of law enforcement — and negative perceptions by the public — following events like the murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in 2020. Understaffing puts a strain on police agencies, reducing officers’ availability to respond to 911 calls and impairing their wellbeing. It also limits the time officers can spend in the community rebuilding trust and relationships with the people they serve.   \\

Denver: Office of the Auditor, City of Denver,  2023. 82p.

By the  U.S. Department of Justice Civil Rights Division 

 The United States has conducted an extensive investigation of the Orange County District Attorney’s Office (OCDA) and the Orange County Sheriff’s Department (OCSD), pursuant to our authority under the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994, 34 U.S.C. § 12601 (previously codified at 42 U.S.C. § 14141). We have determined that there is reasonable cause to believe that the Orange County District Attorney’s Office and the Orange County Sheriff’s Department engaged in a pattern or practice of conduct—the operation of a custodial informant program—that systematically violated criminal defendants’ right to counsel under the Sixth Amendment and right to due process of law under the Fourteenth Amendment. While our review focused on custodial informant activity from 2007 through 2016, the informant controversy continues to undermine public confidence in the integrity of the Orange County criminal legal system. Neither agency has implemented sufficient remedial measures to identify criminal cases impacted by unlawful informant activities or prevent future constitutional violations. This report provides a public accounting of the scope and impact of the informant program on the Orange County criminal legal system. … We focused our investigation on: (1) whether OCDA and OCSD used custodial informants to elicit incriminating statements from individuals in the Orange County Jail, after those individuals had been charged with a crime, in violation of the Sixth Amendment; and (2) whether OCDA failed to disclose exculpatory evidence about those custodial informants to criminal defendants in violation of the Fourteenth Amendment. We reviewed thousands of pages of documents, made  numerous site visits to OCDA and OCSD, and conducted dozens of interviews in the course of our investigation. In particular, we conducted 17 transcribed interviews with OCDA prosecutors about specific cases they personally handled involving custodial informants. The evidence reveals that custodial informants in the Orange County Jail system acted as agents of law enforcement to elicit incriminating statements from defendants represented by counsel, and that for years OCSD maintained and concealed systems to track, manage, and reward those custodial informants. The evidence also reveals that OCDA prosecutors failed to seek out and disclose to defense counsel exculpatory information regarding custodial informants. We therefore have reasonable cause to believe that this pattern or practice of conduct by both agencies resulted in systematic violations of the Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments.     

Washington, DC: The Author, 2022. 63p.

By Paul Pazen, Steven L. Byers, Cole Anderson, and Andy Archuleta

Public safety plays a critical role in the economic vitality of a community. Increasing population, attracting new businesses, generating a workforce, and bolstering the ability to attract tourism are all directly related to real and perceived safety challenges. If people are not safe, they cannot learn, work, or enjoy their communities. Ultimately, high crime rates result in a failure to thrive. It’s no secret that Colorado has been hit with a crime wave. Skyrocketing crime rates, fentanyl deaths, and the number one rank in the country when it comes to auto thefts, are all factors that have put Colorado’s economic future at risk and made Coloradans less safe. The question this report poses is: why has Colorado become less safe? A comparison of policing and crime rates in the two largest cities in Colorado, Denver and Colorado Springs, uncovers distinctly different trends in policing and police resources that have produced differing outcomes. For example, in Denver, the crime rate increased by 32% from 2010 to 2022 while the number of uniformed police officers decreased by 15.1%. A crime case is cleared when it has been solved and the clearance rates for violent crime in Denver have dropped 18.6% at a time when the crime rate is increasing. In Colorado Springs, the crime rate decreased by 15.9% and the number of uniformed police officers rose 5.7% from 2010 to 2022. Clearance rates for violent crime increased by 9.7% while the crime rate decreased. The criminal justice system includes police who investigate crime, district attorneys who prosecute offenders, and the Department of Corrections, which keeps offenders off of the streets and facilitates the reformation and re-entry of offenders. Each of these parts plays an important and unique role in keeping Coloradans safe and is represented by one side of the “crime triangle.” Much like a triangle, when one side collapses, the system collapses.

Greenwood Village, CO: Common Sense Institute (CSI) , 2023. 38p.

By Max Kapustin, Terrence Neumann and Jens Ludwig

How can we get more ‘output,’ and of the right sort, from policing? The question has only taken on greater importance with recent, widely publicized instances of police misconduct; declines in public trust in police; and a rise in gun violence, all disproportionately concentrated in economically disadvantaged communities of color. Research typically focuses on two levers: (1) police resources, and (2) policing strategies or policies, historically focused on crime control but increasingly also on accountability, transparency, and fairness. Here we examine a third lever: management quality. We present three types of evidence. First, we show there is substantial variability in violent crime and police use of force both across cities and within a city across police districts, and that this variation is related to the timing of police leader tenures. Second, we show that an effort to change police management in selected districts in Chicago generates sizable changes in policing outcomes. Third, as part of that management intervention the department adopted a predictive policing tool that randomizes which high-crime areas it shows to officers. We use that randomization to generate district-specific measures of implementation fidelity and show that, even within the context of a management intervention designed to improve implementation of the department’s strategies, there is variability in implementation.

Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2022. 104p.

By David Bjerk

This paper examines the impact of police funding on the fraction of homicides that are cleared by arrest. Using data covering homicides in approximately 50 of the largest US cities from 2007 to 2017, I find no evidence that greater police funding resulted in higher homicide clearance rates. This finding is robust to linear regression and instrumental variable approaches, different ways to measure police budgets, and across victims of different races and in different types of neighborhoods. In summary, the way large city police departments have historically spent their funds, more funding has not helped catch more murderers.

Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 2022; 19: 528-559

Edited by David J. Francis

This wide-ranging collection offers fresh insights into a critical factor in development and politics on the African continent. It critically examines and illustrates the centrality of policing in transition societies in Africa, and outlines and assesses the emergence and impact of the diversity of state and non-state policing agencies.

New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012. 228p.

By Janet B. L. Chan

Police culture is often considered as both a cause of police deviance and an obstacle for police reform. In this study of police racism and police reform in Australia, Janet Chan provides a critical assessment of police initiative in response to the problem of policeSHminorities relations. The book examines the dynamics of change and resistance within an organization and captures the complexity and unpredictability of the change process. It questions the utility of the traditional conception of police culture and proposes a new framework for understanding the interrelationships among the structural conditions of police work, police cultural knowledge, and police practice. A highly original and valuable contribution to policing studies and studies of organizational reform, the book is both empirically rich and theoretically informed.

Cambridge, UK; New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997, 267p.

By David Spencer

As a new Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police is appointed, Policy Exchange has published our report, “‘Policing Can Win’: The New Commissioner’s First 100 Days” by David Spencer, Policy Exchange’s Head of Crime & Justice.

The central thesis to this report is that ‘Policing Can Win’ over those who would commit crime and disorder in our communities. In addition to summarising the core issues the Met has faced over the last five years, this report sets out the three areas where substantial changes must be made:

Leadership at Every Level: Providing the leadership that the officers and staff of the Met need to effectively fight crime and keep the public safe. Fighting Crime and Reconnecting with the Public: Reigniting the tradition that only by working closely with the public will the police be successful in retaining the public’s confidence, fighting crime and disorder, and keeping the public safe. Police Officer Conduct and Competence:Eliminating from policing those who are incompetent or would break the public’s trust in policing by committing criminality or misconduct.

• More.....

  DeDuring and by the end of the Commissioner’s first 100 days in office, things need to feel different.Different to the men and women of the Met, different to those who hold the Commissioner to account, and most importantly different to Londoners. This report seeks to give the Commissioner a head start.scription text goes here

London: Policy Exchange, 2022. 67p.

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