By Alexander F. Roehrkasse

Recent research has documented negative associations between children’s welfare and mobility and their exposure to neighborhood incarceration. But inequality in such exposure among children in the United States is poorly understood. This study links tract-level census data to administrative data on prison admissions to measure 37.8 million children’s exposure to neighborhood incarceration in 2008, by race/ethnicity and poverty status. The average poor Black or African American child lived in a neighborhood where 1 in 174 working-age adults was admitted to prison annually, more than twice the rate of neighborhood prison admission experienced by the average U.S. child. Residential segregation and the spatial concentration of incarceration combine to create significant ethnoracial and economic inequality in the neighborhood experiences of U.S. children.

United States, Sage Journals. 2021, 5pg

By Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim

We study how civilian complaint investigators affect officer behavior in Chicago. We exploit quasi-random assignment of complaints to supervising investigators and use variation in whether supervisors tend to acquire sworn affidavits that substantiate the complaints. When the assigned investigator opens more investigations through obtaining affidavits, accused officers accumulate fewer complaints in the first three months of the investigation. We find that, prior to a scandal, assignment to high-investigation supervisors causes officers to make more arrests. However, this reverses after the scandal. Our findings suggest that police watchdogs can improve officer behavior in ordinary oversight environments but may backfire in heightened oversight environments.

Unpublished paper, 2022. 46p.

By Kasey Henricks and Ruben Ortiz

The Irrelevance of Innocence” is a case study of Chicago that focuses on parking tickets that are written under false pretenses. We leverage multiple data sets against one another to demonstrate that more than one in eight tickets over a six-year span were written under conditions when restrictions did not apply. Then, we situate these findings within a multilevel framework to answer three questions: (1) Are errored tickets more likely to be issued in neighborhoods with higher proportions of Black or Latinx residents? (2) Are errored tickets more likely to be issued by patrol officers as opposed to parking enforcement officers? and (3) Does ethnoracial composition moderate the relationship between ticketing authorities and errored tickets? The implications of our findings (1) quantitatively trouble the ontological assumptions of data that are defined from a policing standpoint and (2) underscore an adjudicative process that routinely sanctions drivers without cause.

Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World, March 2023. 19p.

By Human Impact Partners and Fresno Barrios Unidos

This research brief, created in partnership with Fresno Barrios Unidos, intentionally centers the experiences and perspectives of students, who are most directly impacted by school policing. We evaluate the health impacts of divesting from police contracts and investing in healing-centered practices and spaces on school campuses in the Fresno Unified School District (FUSD) in Fresno, California by exploring the public health research on school policing and its alternatives, and by incorporating student voices via interviews with Fresno students on ways to best support their health, safety, and learning at school.

FUSD has a critical opportunity to join the movement for student wellness by removing police from Fresno school campuses. Given the experiences of students we interviewed for this brief, the hundreds of public comments submitted to Fresno City Council during the budget cycle, and the available evidence on school practices that harm student health and well-being compared to those that promote student health and well-being, we recommend that FUSD:

End Fresno Unified School District’s contract with the Fresno Police Department

Remove all police from school campuses in Fresno

Invest the funding from the school police contract into student wellness and support, including trauma-informed practices, restorative and transformative justice processes, and health and wellness centers, working in collaboration with students and community organizations

With this report and with the years of organizing that came before it, FUSD now has an opportunity to hear and respond to student perspectives, to prioritize the health of students in the district, and to invest in services that support and care for students.

Oakland, CA: Human Impact Partners, 2021. 29p.

By Benjamin W. Fisher, Anthony Petrosino, Hannah Persson, Sarah Guckenburg, Trevor Fronius, Ivan Benitez, Kevin Earl

Abstract

Background

School-based law enforcement (SBLE) has become a common intervention. Although SBLE is meant to make schools safer, critics suggest it may not accomplish this purpose, and may have unintended negative consequences such as increasing students’ exclusionary discipline or contact with the criminal justice system. There may also be secondary effects related to perceptions of the school or student learning.

Objectives

The purpose of this review is to synthesize the literature evaluating the use of SBLE, including outcomes related to (a) crime and behavior problems; (b) perceptions of safety; and (c) learning.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature search to identify studies that examined outcomes associated with SBLE use. Eligible studies used experimental or quasi-experimental designs; included samples of students, teachers/staff, schools, or school districts; reported on a policing strategy focused on crime prevention or school safety that did not involve officers teaching a curriculum; included a measure that reflects crime and behavior problems, perceptions of safety, or learning; and were in a primary or secondary school. Following a multi-stage screening process to identify studies eligible for inclusion, we estimated a series of meta-analytic models with robust variance estimation to calculate weighted mean effect sizes for each of three main categories of outcomes and commonly occurring subsets of these categories. We examined heterogeneity in these estimates across features of the primary studies’ design.

Results

The search and screening process yielded 1002 effect sizes from 32 reports. There were no true experiments, and the quasi-experiments ranged from strictly correlational to permitting stronger causal inferences. SBLE use was associated with greater crime and behavior problems in studies that used schools as the unit of analysis. Within this category, SBLE use was associated with increased exclusionary discipline among studies that used both schools (g = 0.15, 95% confidence interval [CI] [0.02, 0.27]) and students (g = 0.003, 95% CI [0.002, 0.003]) as the unit of analysis. SBLE use was not associated with any measures of crime or violence in schools. SBLE use was associated with greater feelings of safety among studies that used schools as the unit of analysis (g = 0.18, 95% CI [0.13, 0.24]), although this estimate was based on only seven effect sizes from two correlational studies. All the other models, including those examining learning outcomes, yielded null results. None of the moderators tested showed meaningful relationships, indicating the findings were consistent across a variety of study design features.

Authors’ Conclusions

This study's findings provide no evidence that there is a safety-promoting component of SBLE, and support the criticism that SBLE criminalizes students and schools. Although we found no evidence of differences across methodological features, risk of bias in the primary studies limits our confidence in making causal inferences. To the extent that the findings are causal, schools that invest in strategies to improve safety will likely benefit from divesting from SBLE and instead investing in evidence-based strategies for enhancing school safety. Schools that continue to use SBLE should ensure that their model has no harmful effects and is providing safety benefits.

Campbell Systematic Review, 19(4): 2023.

By Emma Rackstraw

Television shows with police officer protagonists are ubiquitous on American television. Both fictional shows and reality shows portray a world where criminals are nearly always apprehended. However, this is a distortion of reality, as crimes mostly go unsolved and police officers infrequently make arrests. What does the omnipresence of this genre mean for the general public's conception of police, for the practice of policing, and for the communities being policed? I use department-level and officer-level arrest data to find that arrests for low-level, victimless crimes increase by 20 percent while departments film with reality television shows, concentrated in the officers actively followed by cameras. These arrests do not meaningfully improve public safety and come at the cost of the local public's confidence. I then document quasi-experimentally and experimentally that these shows -- particularly their overrepresentation of arrests -- improve non-constituent viewer attitudes towards and beliefs about the police. The results are consistent with "copaganda" shows inflating trust in police nationally while subjecting some to harsher but not more effective enforcement. I consider the implications for police reform

Rackstraw, Emma, When Reality TV Creates Reality: How “Copaganda” Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers (October 30, 2023).

United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency

From the document: "Disaster recovery begins shortly after a disaster when survivors start to rebuild their community. The disaster recovery process creates opportunities for communities to rebuild thoughtfully, equitably, and resiliently. 'Achieving Equitable Recovery: A Post-Disaster Guide for Local Officials and Leaders' (hereafter the 'Guide') helps communities focus their efforts on forming relationships, holding conversations about equity, and prioritizing post-disaster recovery projects and resources that meet the needs of each community member. [...] This Guide identifies eight goals that organize actions to work towards achieving equitable recovery outcomes through an accessible, inclusive, and equitable recovery planning process. These goals are action-oriented to better provide local recovery officials with strategies for implementing focused and system-wide changes to the disaster recovery process."

United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2023. 144p.

United States. Department Of Defense. Office Of The Inspector General

From the document: "This special report provides insight into the common cybersecurity weaknesses identified in DoD Office of Inspector General (OIG) audit reports and through our support to the Defense Criminal Investigative Service and the Department of Justice on Civil Cyber-Fraud Initiative investigations related to DoD contractor compliance with Federal cybersecurity requirements for protecting controlled unclassified information (CUI). CUI is not classified information but is information created or possessed by the Government that requires safeguarding or dissemination controls according to applicable laws, regulations, and Government-wide policies as defined in Executive Order 13526, 'Classified National Security Information,' December 29, 2009. From 2018 through 2023, the DoD OIG issued five audit reports focusing on DoD contractors' inconsistent implementation of Federal cybersecurity requirements for protecting CUI that are contained in National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Special Publication (SP) 800-171. Since 2022, the DoD OIG has provided support for five investigations under the Civil Cyber Fraud Initiative, which targets government contractors and grant recipients suspected of fraudulently attesting their compliance with the NIST SP 800-171 cybersecurity requirements. The common cybersecurity weaknesses identified in this special report provide DoD contracting officers with potential focus areas when assessing contractor performance and DoD contractors and grant recipients with potential focus areas before attesting to their compliance with NIST SP 800-171."

Department of Defense, Office of Inspector General, Report No. DODIG-'2024-'031. 24p.

By Cleaveland, Ann; Cohn, Alan, 1964-; Nagamine, Matthew; Thomas, Dawn H.; Rimsky Vernon, Alison

From the document: "This report presents findings from Cybersecurity Futures 2030, a global research initiative focused on exploring how digital security could evolve over the next five to seven years. The goal of this project is to help shape a future-focused research and policy agenda that is widely applicable across countries and sectors. The findings are based on discussions held at a series of in-person workshops conducted throughout 2023 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), Washington DC (USA), Kigali (Rwanda), New Delhi (India) and Singapore, as well as a virtual workshop with participants from multiple European countries and the United Kingdom. The workshops centred on discussion of four scenarios that portray diverse 'cybersecurity futures' that are fictional (but plausible) depictions of the world roughly in the year 2030. UC [University of California] Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC) independently designed the scenarios to explore trade-offs in goals and values that decision-makers will have to contend with in the near future."

World Economic Forum . 2023. 16p.

By United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency

From the document: "The 2023 NPR [National Preparedness Report] outlines the nation's progress towards achieving the National Preparedness Goal of 'A secure and resilient nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk' as well as recommendations for closing remaining gaps. This annual report draws upon various data sources, including open-source data, FEMA and community preparedness data sets, and submissions from federal departments and agencies. FEMA also recognizes critical infrastructure owners and operators as important partners in emergency management and community resilience, but did not collect insights into preparedness from this group, as such research presently extends beyond the scope of this report."

United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency. Dec, 2023. 59p.

Chatham House

From the webpage: "Cyberspace is now established as an important domain of national and international security. Until recently, informed and open discussion on the responsible use of offensive cyber capabilities has been constrained by high levels of secrecy around national strategies for their use. Insights as to how individual states view the utility of offensive cyber, and how they perceive and manage associated risks of escalation and conflict, have been hard to access. A lack of open debate around the limitations of cyber operations has also led to inaccurate portrayals of cyber capabilities as versatile 'silver bullet' solutions which can address a widening variety of security challenges. This paper offers an in-depth exploration of new or revised national cyber strategies, authorization mechanisms and legislation in nine NATO states, and draws on interviews with national cyber experts. As well as aiming to promote more informed debate on the key issues, it presents important policy recommendations to support the responsible use of offensive cyber and to contribute to the achievement of a secure cyberspace for all."

Royal Institute Of International Affairs Skingsley, Charlotte . 2023. 37p.

By Toner, Helen; Ji, Jessica; Bansemer, John; Lim, Lucy; Painter, Chris; Corley, Courtney D.; Whittlestone, Jess; Botvinick, Matt; Rodriguez, Mikel; Shankar Siva Kumar, Ram

From the document: "AI is experiencing a moment of profound change, capturing unprecedented public attention and becoming increasingly sophisticated. As AI becomes more powerful, and in some cases more general in its capabilities, it may become capable of posing novel risks in domains such as bioweapons development, cybersecurity, and beyond. Two features of the current AI landscape are especially challenging from a policy perspective: the rapid pace at which research is advancing, and the recent development of more general-purpose AI systems, which--unlike most AI systems, which are narrowly focused on a single task--can be adapted to many different use cases. These two elements add new layers of difficulty to existing AI ethics and safety problems. In July 2023, Georgetown University's Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and Google DeepMind hosted a virtual roundtable to discuss the implications and governance of the advancing AI research frontier, particularly with regard to general-purpose AI models. The objective of the roundtable was to help bridge the gap between the state of the current conversation and the reality of AI technology at the research frontier, which has potentially widespread implications for both national security and society at large."

Georgetown University. Walsh School Of Foreign Service. Center For Security And Emerging Technology . 2023. 23p.

By Hyunjung Cheon, Kayla Freemon, Charles M. Katz

Legal socialization is the process by which individuals obtain their attitudes and beliefs about formal social control mechanisms such as the police, including how these are formed through domains of social life. These attitudes and subsequent beliefs toward the police, whether positive or negative, have been found to impact individuals' compliance with the law and cooperation with legal authorities. Despite research advancements on legal socialization, the theoretical hypotheses drawn from this perspective have not been tested in the Caribbean context, a high crime and violence setting where the police are often viewed as corrupt, untrustworthy, and ineffective. This study uses data from 4,293 youths to examine the effect of socializing agents (i.e., family, school, and peers) on youth perceptions of the police in three nations - Guyana, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Lucia - and whether these perceptions impact delinquency. We find that legal socialization domains and perceptions of the police are important factors that influence delinquency in the Caribbean. Implications are discussed in light of future research and policy.

island Studies Journal, 18 (1): 30-51, 2023.I Vol. 18

By Magdalena Domínguez

Worldwide, gang proliferation is fought mostly with tough punishment strategies such as sweeps. In this paper, I study their causal effect on crime for arrested individuals and known peers following a difference-in-differences strategy. I also take advantage of the network structure I retrieved to assess peer effects and identify key players. I perform such an analysis with novel administrative data from the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona, where Latin gangs expanded rapidly and where a stark policy change occurred. Results show significant reductions in crimes of arrested individuals and their peers, particularly in crimes against the person. The areas of the sweeps benefit from improvements in crime, health and education. I further conduct an innovative counterfactual policy exercise comparing sweep outcomes with theoretically predicted crime reductions when removing key players. This exercise indicates that sweeps could have achieved a 50% larger reduction in criminal activity had key players been removed. In this way, a network analysis provides insights on how to improve policy design.

IEB Working Paper 2021/03. University of Barcelona, Institute of Economics, 2021. 55p.

By Taryn A. Merkl PUBLISHED APRIL 29, 2021 With a foreword by Eric H. Holder Jr

The protest movement sparked by George Floyd’s killing last year has forced a nationwide reckoning with a wide range of deep-rooted racial inequities — in our economy, in health care, in education, and even in our democracy — that undermine the American promise of freedom and justice for all. That tragic incident provoked widespread demonstrations and stirred strong emotions from people across our nation.

While our state and local governments wrestle with how to reimagine relationships between police and the communities they serve, the Justice Department has long been hamstrung in its ability to mete out justice when people’s civil rights are violated.

The Civil Rights Acts passed during Reconstruction made it a federal crime to deprive someone of their constitutional rights while acting in an official capacity, a provision now known as Section 242. Today, when state or local law enforcement are accused of misconduct, the federal government is often seen as the best avenue for justice — to conduct a neutral investigation and to serve as a backstop when state or local investigations falter. I’m proud that the Justice Department pursued more Section 242 cases under my leadership than under any other attorney general before or since.

But due to Section 242’s vague wording and a series of Supreme Court decisions that raised the standard of proof needed for a civil rights violation, it’s often difficult for federal prosecutors to hold law enforcement accountable using this statute.

This timely report outlines changes to Section 242 that would clarify its scope, making it easier to bring cases and win convictions for civil rights violations of these kinds. Changing the law would allow for charges in cases where prosecutors might currently conclude that the standard of proof cannot be met. Perhaps more important, it attempts to deter potential future misconduct by acting as a nationwide reminder to law enforcement and other public officials of the constitutional limits on their authority.

The statutory changes recommended in this proposal are carefully designed to better protect civil rights that are already recognized. And because Black, Latino, and Native Americans are disproportionately victimized by the kinds of official misconduct the proposal addresses, these changes would advance racial justice.

This proposal would also help ensure that law enforcement officers in every part of the United States live up to the same high standards of professionalism. I have immense regard for the vital role that police play in all of America’s communities and for the sacrifices that they and their families are too often called to make on behalf of their country. It is in great part for their sake — and for their safety — that we must seek to build trust in all communities.

We need to send a clear message that the Constitution and laws of the United States prohibit public officials from engaging in excessive force, sexual misconduct, and deprivation of needed medical care. This proposal will better allow the Justice Department to pursue justice in every appropriate case, across the country.

New York: Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, 2021. 26p.

By Michael German and Kaylana Mueller-Hsia

The failure of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other law enforcement agencies to anticipate and prepare for the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by far-right insurrectionists has elicited proposals to expand the bureau’s authority to investigate domestic terrorism.

The FBI already received expansive new powers after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and its current guidelines place few limits on agents’ ability to search broadly for potential threats. Confusion about the current scope of the bureau’s powers is understandable, however, as FBI leaders have regularly misstated their authorities in public testimony.

These misstatements deflect FBI accountability by focusing overseers on filling perceived gaps in its authority rather than examining how the bureau uses, misuses, or fails to use the tools it already has.

The real problem is not that the FBI’s authorities are too narrow, but rather that they are overbroad and untethered to evidence of wrongdoing. After 9/11, the Department of Justice (DOJ) reduced or eliminated reasonable evidentiary predicates to justify broader collection and sharing of Americans’ personal information. This new domestic intelligence process replaced evidence-driven investigations of suspected criminal activities with mass data collection and untriaged reporting of speculative harms unsupported by facts. The sheer volume of threat reporting resulting from this system suffocates effective intelligence analysis, flooding law enforcement leaders with thousands of specious threat warnings a day. In addition to unjustified invasions of privacy, the high rate of false alarms that this process produces naturally dulls the response, and the disconnect from evidence of criminality opens the door to bias-driven law enforcement responses. As they have in the past, the FBI’s unbridled authorities have resulted in abuses of civil rights and civil liberties without improving its ability to identify and mitigate real threats.

Misinformation from FBI officials has confused the policy debate. When senators investigating the January 6 attack asked Jill Sanborn, then the assistant director of the FBI’s Counterterrorism Division, whether FBI agents monitored the multitude of threats made in public forums prior to the attack, Sanborn replied, “It’s not within our authorities.”

Sanborn claimed that the FBI cannot collect information involving First Amendment–protected activities without a predicated investigation or a tip from a community member or law enforcement officer. These statements are inaccurate, yet they featured prominently in the Senate’s report on the security, planning, and response failures regarding the attack on the Capitol.

New York: Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law, 2022. 21p.

By Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur and Anuj Shah

Prevailing views suggest that adverse policing outcomes are driven by problematic police officers and deficient policies. This study highlights an overlooked factor – cognitive demands inherent in police work. A training designed to improve officer decision-making under stress and time pressure, two key cognitive demands, lead to 23% fewer uses of force and discretionary arrests, and 11% fewer arrests of Black civilians. The results demonstrate the power of leveraging behavioral science insights to make policing more effective and equitable.

Policing practices have increasingly come under public scrutiny, spurring widespread calls for police reform. To date, prevailing views have attributed adverse policing outcomes (such as excessive force and unnecessary arrests) to factors such as prejudiced officers and deficient departmental policies. In this paper, the authors introduce a new focus that explores the role of cognitive demands in contributing to poor policing outcomes. Police work often involves making complex decisions in situations that produce stress, trigger many emotions, and require officers to act quickly. These cognitive demands make it more likely that officers will act without sufficient deliberation and that their actions will be driven by cognitive biases. In this paper, the authors explore this overlooked perspective, which suggests an additional avenue for improving policing outcomes.

WORKING PAPER · NO. 2023-118 . Chicago: University of Chicago, 2023. 99p.

By the American Civil Liberties of North Carolina; Sam Davis, et al.

Over the past seven years, North Carolina schools have devoted more than $100,000,000 dollars to placing more police officers in more schools.1 These massive investments have come in lieu of funding the kinds of support proven to enhance student well-being and learning. According to 2015–2016 federal data, North Carolina ranks near the top nationally in terms of the presence of police officers in schools,2 but among the worst states in terms of school funding.3 Additionally, schools in North Carolina have struggled to recruit and retain adequate staffing levels.4 The choice to prioritize funding police officers instead of teachers, counselors, and other schoolbased mental health providers has harmful and long-lasting consequences for North Carolina’s children, especially children of color and children with disabilities. Indeed, North Carolina was recently ranked as one of the worst states for overall youth mental health.5 And children are experiencing more acute mental health needs after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which exacerbated existing inequities for students of color, as is visible in rising rates of depression, anxiety, and suicide, particularly for Black youth,6 and contributed to worsening conditions for students with disabilities.7 North Carolina’s massive investments in police are not paying off: police officers do not improve safety in schools. Instead, the presence of police officers harm students, including by criminalizing typical adolescent behavior that police choose to deem disorderly or otherwise criminal. For example, police officers are empowered to arrest students for disorderly conduct in schools—a criminal offense in North Carolina—that then funnels them into the criminal legal system. This report presents and discusses the implications of federal data regarding the staffing its schools with police officers instead of the mental health providers that students need like counselors, nurses, psychologists, social workers, and community health workers. The report analyzes the consequences of this choice by reviewing federal data regarding school referrals to law enforcement, with particular attention to disparities by race and disability status. In addition, the report highlights state data that shows disturbing racial disparities regarding school-based complaints, and charges for disorderly conduct in schools in particular. In sum, North Carolina fails to meet the recommended ratios for school-based mental health providers across the board despite the fact that today’s children—and Black children in particular—need access to mental health support now more than ever before. Instead, North Carolina continues to maintain a high number of police officers in its schools who have expansive discretion to decide which students to refer into the criminal legal system and for what. The consequences of this choice are dire, especially for Black students and students with disabilities.

Raleigh: ACLU of North Carolina, 2023. 29p.

By Deepak Premkumar

After a spate of protests touched off by high-profile incidents of police use of force, there has been a renewed focus on whether public scrutiny shapes policing behavior, otherwise known as the Ferguson Effect. This question has gained additional urgency as the country grapples with increases in murders. This paper provides the first national analysis showing that after police killings that generate significant public attention and scrutiny, officers reduce effort and crime increases. The effects differ by offense type: Reduced police effort yields persistently fewer arrests for low-level offenses (e.g., marijuana possession) but limited changes in arrests for violent or more serious property crimes. I show that decreased interaction with civilians through police stops may be driving the results. However, the increase in offending is driven by murders and robberies, imposing significant crime costs on affected municipalities. The effects only occur after there is broad community awareness of the incident. These findings are robust to numerous changes in empirical specification, transformations of the dependent variable, and varying levels of fixed effects that control for changes in state law and treatment spillovers. I also present evidence that suggests these effects are not driven by a pattern-or-practice investigation or a court-mandated monitoring agreement. To distinguish between the potential effects that may simultaneously impact arrest levels following a high-profile police killing, I develop a theoretical model that provides empirically testable predictions for each mechanism. I find that the reduction in low-level arrests corroborates public scrutiny as the causal channel. Finally, I provide evidence that the increase in offending is driven by both a response to the reduction in policing effort and a reaction to the police killing itself, suggesting that measures to reduce use of force should be prioritized.\

Unpublished paper, 2019, revised 2022. 132p.

By Daniel AC Barbosa Thiemo Fetzer Caterina Soto & Pedro CL Souza

We provide experimental evidence that monitoring of the police activity through body-worn cameras reduces use-of-force, handcuffs and arrests, and enhances criminal reporting. Stronger treatment effects occur on events classified ex-ante of low seriousness. Monitoring effects are moderated by officer rank, which is consistent with a career concern motive by junior officers. Overall, results show that the use of body-worn cameras de-escalates conflicts

Warwick Economics Research Papers . Coventry, UK: University of Warwick, 2021. 56p.