By David S. Abrams, Hanming Fang and Priyanka Goonetilleke

Police “stop-and-frisks” of pedestrians and motorists have become an increasingly controversial tactic, given low average rates of contraband discovery, incidents of abuse, and evidence of racial disparity. Study of the tactic by economists has been much influenced by Knowles, Persico, and Todd (2001; hereafter, KPT) who first suggested the use of a “hit rate” (contraband discovery rate per frisk) test to distinguish racial prejudice from statistical discrimination in highway searches by police officers. Models used by KPT and almost all subsequent literature (e.g., Anwar and Fang 2006) on the subject imply diminishing marginal returns to frisks. That is, if frisks decrease substantially, the rate of contraband discovery should rise, ceteris paribus. This is the first paper to test this assumption empirically using arguably exogenous variations in frisk rates (cf. Feigenberg and Miller 2022). 1 We study the period around the nationwide protests that followed the killing of George Floyd on May 25, 2020, after which police frisks dropped tremendously and rapidly. Using extremely granular data from Chicago, we find that hit rates increased as police frisks plunged, in line with the predictions of KPT.

AEA Papers and Proceedings 2022, 112: 178–183 ,2022. 7p.

By Citizens for a Greater Downtown St. Louis

 Among the greatest concerns of people living, working, visiting, and investing in Downtown St. Louis is public safety. Over the last decade, the character of Downtown has come to be defined not by its great architecture, live sporting events, or conventions, but by a litany of headlines describing crime, violence, and disruptive behavior. To respond to those headlines, city and civic leaders have suggested several explanations: that the recent pandemic created a vacuum of empty streets and diminished law enforcement; that increases in criminal activity are not reflected in data and are only a “perception”; and, that this is a nationwide phenomenon with other cities across the country experiencing the same problems. Some have suggested that complaints about security are a product of racism. First, the facts are undeniable; six homicides downtown in the first five months of 2023 (10 in 2022), numerous violent events, hundreds of car break-ins etc. Second, downtown residents and businesses make a choice to live or locate in a racially and culturally diverse neighborhood. That’s part of what makes Downtown special and a great place to live and work. Concerns about security are shared by neighbors of all races. As this report shows, none of those explanations are credible or helpful. While some of our public safety problems were exacerbated by the pandemic, the trends of rising crime and disorder were present years before. …

St. Louis, MO: The Authors, 20233. 15p..

Edited by Christian Rathgeb,  Ruben Tolosana,  Ruben Vera-Rodriguez, and Christoph Busch

This open access book provides the first comprehensive collection of studies dealing with the hot topic of digital face manipulation such as DeepFakes, Face Morphing, or Reenactment. It combines the research fields of biometrics and media forensics including contributions from academia and industry. Appealing to a broad readership, introductory chapters provide a comprehensive overview of the topic, which address readers wishing to gain a brief overview of the state-of-the-art. Subsequent chapters, which delve deeper into various research challenges, are oriented towards advanced readers. Moreover, the book provides a good starting point for young researchers as well as a reference guide pointing at further literature. Hence, the primary readership is academic institutions and industry currently involved in digital face manipulation and detection. The book could easily be used as a recommended text for courses in image processing, machine learning, media forensics, biometrics, and the general security area.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2022. 481p.

By David H. Bayley

From the Exec. Summary: This report sets forth the lessons that observers and participants have learned about the process of changing police organizations so as to support democracy. It is based on the study of three bodies of literature: studies of efforts to change police practices in the developed democracies, especially in the United States; accounts ofthe experience with foreign assistance to police abroad under both bilateral and multilateral auspices; and accounts of the actions of nongovernmental human rights organizations to rectify police abuses. More than 500 books, articles, reports, and documents were reviewed in this study. The bibliography attached to this report probably encompasses the largest number of materials on efforts to change police organizations ever collected.

Washington. National Institute of Justice. 2001. 127p

By Adrian Cherney, Emma Antrobus, Sarah Bennett, Bevan Murphy and Mike Newman

Evidence-based policing (EBP) advocates the use of scientific processes in police decision-making. This paper examines results from a survey of officers in the Queensland Police Service and the Western Australia Police on the uptake of and receptiveness towards EBP research. Using a combined dataset, the paper examines a variety of factors related to the perceived value and usefulness of academic and internal research, and individual and organisational barriers to the use of EBP research. It also explores whether leadership and EBP workshops influence the adoption of evidence-based practices.

Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology, 2019. 18p.

By Travis Carter, Jedidiah Knode and Scott Wolfe  

This report presents the results from a racial/ethnic disparity analysis of Michigan State Police (MSP) traffic stops conducted in 2021. The goal of the analysis is to identify the extent of racial/ethnic disparities in MSP traffic stop behavior across MSP worksites (i.e., posts). The analyses are based on a leading empirical approach to assessing racial/ethnic disparities in traffic stop behavior—the veil-of-darkness (VOD). The analyses account for important structural differences across posts and their jurisdictions, such as the rate of violent crime and troopers per capita, as well as temporal factors that may shape traffic patterns and stop behavior (e.g., time of day, day of week) to help ensure the results are as informative as possible. Below, we briefly outline the methodology employed and summarize the main findings. When discussing the results from this report, it is important to recognize the difference between “disparity” and “discrimination.” Disparity in these traffic stop analyses refers to differences in racial/ethnic group representation based on presumed visibility of the driver. Disparity cannot identify intent, whereas discrimination inherently involves intent. Therefore, discrimination in traffic stop behavior refers to police officers intentionally stopping individuals based on their status in a racial/ethnic minority group. Discrimination can generate disparities by way of differential treatment of racial/ethnic groups, but disparities may also be the result of nondiscriminatory (e.g., environmental, situational, etc.) factors such as crime prevalence and driving pattern differences. This report and its findings can speak only to the extent of racial/ethnic disparity in MSP traffic stops. The data cannot ascertain whether racially discriminatory practices are occurring within MSP. Although disentangling disparity from bias is critical towards improving police practices, accurately identifying the existence of such disparity and its magnitude is an important precursor to this process. More information on the data collection process is provided in the body of the report. Next, we highlight the main takeaways from the analyses.   

East Lansing:  Michigan Justice Statistics Center School of Criminal Justice Michigan State University, 2022. 33p.

By Johann Koehler, Tony Cheng
We show how both the Chicago Police Department and the New York Police Department sought to settle uncertainty about their propriety and purpose during a period when abrupt transformations destabilized urban order and called the police mandate into question. By comparing annual reports that the Chicago Police Department and the New York Police Department published from 1877 to 1923, we observe two techniques in how the police enacted that settlement: identification of the problems that the police believed themselves uniquely well equipped to manage and authorization of the powers necessary to do so. Comparison of identification and authorization yields insights into the role that these police departments played in convergent and divergent constructions of disorder and, in turn, into Progressivism's varying effects in early urban policing.

Criminology, 2023:1-28

By Shani A Buggs , Daniel W Webster, Cassandra K Crifasi  

Objective To estimate the long-term impact of Safe Streets Baltimore, which is based on the Cure Violence outreach and violence interruption model, on firearm violence. Methods We used synthetic control methods to estimate programme effects on homicides and incidents of non-fatal penetrating firearm injury (non-fatal shootings) in neighbourhoods that had Safe Streets’ sites and model-generated counterfactuals. Synthetic control analyses were conducted for each firearm violence outcome in each of the seven areas where Safe Streets was implemented. The study also investigated variation in programme impact over time by generating effect estimates of varying durations for the longest-running programme sites. Results Synthetic control models reduced prediction error relative to regression analyses. Estimates of Safe Streets’ effects on firearm violence varied across intervention sites: some positive, some negative and no effect. Beneficial programme effects on firearm violence reported in prior research were found to have attenuated over time. Conclusions For highly targeted interventions, synthetic control methods may provide more valid estimates of programme impact than panel regression with data from all city neighbourhoods. This research offers new understanding about the effectiveness of the Cure Violence intervention over extended periods of time in seven neighbourhoods. Combined with existing Cure Violence evaluation literature, it also raises questions about contextual and implementation factors that might influence programme outcomes.  

  Inj Prev 2022;28:61–67  

By Danielle Watson · Loene Howes · Sinclair Dinnen · Melissa Bull · Sara N. Amin

This open access book brings together insights into Pacific policing, conceptualising policing broadly as order maintenance involving the actions of multiple local, regional and international actors with sometimes competing and conflicting agendas. A complex and multifaceted endeavour, scholarship on this topic is relatively scarce and widely dispersed across diverse sources. It examines how Pacific policing is shaped by changing state-society relations in different national contexts and ongoing processes of globalisation. Particular attention is given to the plural character of Pacific policing, profound challenges of gender equity, changing dynamics of crime, and the prominence of transnational policing in resource and capacity constrained domestic environments. The authors draw on examples from across the Pacific islands to provide a nuanced and contextualised account of policing in this socially diverse and rapidly transforming region.

Cham: Palgrave Macmillan, 2023. 208p

By David Bjerk

This paper examines the impact of police funding on the fraction of homicides that are cleared by arrest. Using data covering homicides in approximately 50 of the largest US cities from 2007 to 2017, I find no evidence that greater police funding resulted in higher homicide clearance rates. This finding is robust to linear regression and instrumental variable approaches, different ways to measure police budgets, and across victims of different races and in different types of neighborhoods. In summary, the way large city police departments have historically spent their funds, more funding has not helped catch more murderers.

Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, 2022; 19: 528-559

By Rashida Richardson, Jason M. Schultz, and Kate Crawford

Law enforcement agencies are increasingly using predictive policing systems to forecast criminal activity and allocate police resources. Yet in numerous jurisdictions, these systems are built on data produced during documented periods of flawed, racially biased, and sometimes unlawful practices and policies (“dirty policing”). These policing practices and policies shape the environment and the methodology by which data is created, which raises the risk of creating inaccurate, skewed, or systematically biased data (“dirty data”). If predictive policing systems are informed by such data, they cannot escape the legacies of the unlawful or biased policing practices that they are built on. Nor do current claims by predictive policing vendors provide sufficient assurances that their systems adequately mitigate or segregate this data.

In our research, we analyze thirteen jurisdictions that have used or developed predictive policing tools while under government commission investigations or federal court monitored settlements, consent decrees, or memoranda of agreement stemming from corrupt, racially biased, or otherwise illegal policing practices. In particular, we examine the link between unlawful and biased police practices and the data available to train or implement these systems. We highlight three case studies: (1) Chicago, an example of where dirty data was ingested directly into the city’s predictive system; (2) New Orleans, an example where the extensive evidence of dirty policing practices and recent litigation suggests an extremely high risk that dirty data was or could be used in predictive policing; and (3) Maricopa County, where despite extensive evidence of dirty policing practices, a lack of public transparency about the details of various predictive policing systems restricts a proper assessment of the risks. The implications of these findings have widespread ramifications for predictive policing writ large. Deploying predictive policing systems in jurisdictions with extensive histories of unlawful police practices presents elevated risks that dirty data will lead to flawed or unlawful predictions, which in turn risk perpetuating additional harm via feedback loops throughout the criminal justice system. The use of predictive policing must be treated with high levels of caution and mechanisms for the public to know, assess, and reject such systems are imperative.

94 N.Y.U. L. REV. ONLINE 192 (2019), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3333423

By Stephen Wu

Objective.This study analyzes the relationship between the race of a city’s police chief and the incidence of fatal shootings by police officers.Methods.The Washington Post’s “Fatal ForceDatabase” is used to calculate per-capita rates of fatal shootings by police officers occurring between January 1, 2015 and June 1, 2020 for the 100 largest cities in the United States. I compare fatal shooting rates for cities with police chiefs of different races, both unadjusted and adjusted for differences in city characteristics.Results.Rates of fatal shootings by officers are almost 50 percenthigher in cities with police forces led by white police chiefs than in cities with black police chiefs.Of the 30 cities with the highest rates of fatal shootings, 23 have police departments led by whites and only four have departments led by blacks, while of the 30 cities with the lowest rates, 16 have police departments led by blacks and only 11 are led by whites. Differences in fatal shooting rates persist after controlling for city characteristics.Conclusion.Leaders in the highest position of au-thority may have a powerful effect on the culture of a police department and its resulting behavior.Each year, there are approximately 1,000 fatal shootings by police officers across theUnited States, a statistic that has been fairly steady over the course of the last several years.With recent efforts to track and compile more comprehensive data, researchers have been increasingly studying the factors that contribute to these deaths. Prior research has looked at many factors surrounding fatal officer-involved shootings, including racial and demo-graphic information of both officers and victims, situational and location characteristics,and structural and organizational factors. This study contributes to the literature by look-ing at one as of yet unstudied factor: the race of a city’s police chief.Much of the prior work on police shootings has focused on the demographics of vic-tims. Edwards, Lee, and Esposito (2019) show that age and race are significant factors in determining the risk of being killed by police. Specifically, individuals between the ages of20 and 35 have the highest risk of all different age groups. They also find that blacks, Latinos, and Native Americans are significantly more likely to be killed by police than whites. An important distinction between sheriffs and police chiefs (or commanders, commissioners, captains,and superintendents) is that sheriffs are directly elected, while other top leaders are appointed by the mayor or city council. Sheriff’s departments also may have additional duties for their jurisdictions including supervision of correctional facilities and providing court security. There are only two cities in the data with elected sheriffs,and the analysis is not affected by eliminating these two departments.

SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY, Volume 102, Number 1, January 2021

By Michael Gennaco, Stephen Connolly and Julie Ruhlin

In the summer of 2019, Vallejo officials were responding to a time of transition for the City’s Police Department. The chief was newly retired, and the search for a new leader was underway against a backdrop of recent incidents – including fatal officer-involved shootings – that had prompted public concern and even demonstrations. It seemed as if a number of individual encounters were fitting all too well into larger, troubling narratives about American law enforcement: deadly force under disputed circumstances that affected minority subjects to a disproportionate extent, and strained relationships with residents that arose from and contributed to that reality while raising issues of trust and public confidence. Leadership within Vallejo’s city government decided that the time was right to take a step back and to assess the Department’s strengths, challenges, and opportunities in a new way. The City engaged an outside consultant to conduct this assessment.

This report is the product of that review. It was prepared by OIR Group, a team of private consultants that specializes in police practices and the civilian oversight of law enforcement. Since 2001, OIR Group has worked exclusively with government entities in a variety of contexts related to independent outside review of law enforcement, from investigation to monitoring to systems evaluation. Our members have provided oversight in jurisdictions throughout California, as well as in several other states.

Playa del Rey, CA:  OIR Group, 2020. 74p.

By The Center for Neighborhood Engaged Research and Science

 In 2019, the Chicago Police Department, in partnership with the Policing Project at New York University (NYU), implemented the Chicago Neighborhood Policing Initiative (CNPI). This initiative is composed of two interrelated goals: To measure CNPI’s impact, CORNERS built a multi-method research design capturing perspectives of residents and police in CNPI districts through in-depth interviews, systematic observations at police and community meetings and events, quasi-experimental statistical analyses, and analysis of key documents detailing CNPI activities.

Chicago: The Center, Northwestern University, 2023. 66p.

By The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

This document was developed through efforts by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC or Council) Intelligence and Information Sharing Working Group, to develop guidelines for local and state agencies in relation to the collection, analysis, and dissemination of terrorism-related intelligence (i.e., the fusion process). Those efforts laid the foundation for the expansion of the Fusion Center Guidelines to integrate the public safety and private sector entities. The guidelines are intended to ensure that fusion centers are established and operated consistently, with enhanced coordination efforts, strengthened partnerships, and improved crime-fighting and antiterrorism capabilities. Key elements include: sector-specific information and sharing plans; identification of goals for the fusion center; creation of a representative governance structure and collaborative environment for intelligence sharing among local, state, tribal, and federal law enforcement agencies, public safety agencies, and the private sector; utilization of memoranda of understanding (MOUs), non-disclosure agreements (NDAs), and other agency agreements, as appropriate; leveraging of databases, systems, and networks to maximize information sharing; creating environments that promote communication among entities; development and publication of privacy and civil liberties policies; ensuring appropriate security measures for the facility, data, and personnel; integration of technology, systems, and people; achievement of a diversified representation of personnel based on the needs and functions of the center; ensuring adequate personnel training; provision of multitiered educational program for intelligence-led policing and information sharing; offering a variety of intelligence services and products to customers; developing and adhering to a policies and procedures manual; defining expectations and performance measurement for determining effectiveness; establishing and maintaining the center based on funding availability and sustainability; and the development and implementation of a communications plan among personnel, officers, and the general public. The eighteen guidelines provided reflect those key concepts; the document includes eight appendices.

Washington, DC: DHS, 2023. 104p..

By The Center for Public Safety Management

The Center for Public Safety Management, LLC (CPSM) was commissioned to review the operations of the Little Rock Police Department. While our analysis covered all aspects of the department’s operations, particular areas of focus of this study included: identifying appropriate staffing of the department given the workload, community demographics, and crime levels; the effectiveness of the organizational structure; and efficiency and effectiveness of division/unit processes. We analyzed the department workload using operations research methodology and compared that workload to staffing and deployment levels. We reviewed other performance indicators that enabled us to understand the implications of service demand on current staffing. Our study involved data collection, interviews with key operational and administrative personnel, focus groups with line level department personnel, on-site observations of the job environment, data analysis, comparative analysis, and the development of alternatives and recommendations. Based upon CPSM’s detailed assessment of the Little Rock Police Department, it is our conclusion that the department, overall, provides quality law enforcement services. The staff is professional and dedicated to the mission of the department. Through this report, we will strive to allow the reader to take a look inside the department to understand its strengths and its challenges. We sincerely hope that all parties utilize the information and recommendations contained herein in a constructive manner to make a fine law enforcement agency even better. As part of this Executive Summary, we offer general observations that we believe identify some of the more significant issues facing the department. Additionally, we also list key recommendations for consideration; we believe these recommendations will enhance organizational effectiveness. Some of these recommendations involve the creation of new job classifications; others involve the reassignment/repurposing of job duties to other sections and units. Oftentimes these types of recommendations require a substantial financial commitment on the part of a jurisdiction. In the case of the Little Rock Police Department, some may be accomplished by a realignment of workload and/or reclassification of job descriptions. It is important to note that in this report we will examine specific sections and units of the department and will offer a discussion of our observations and recommendations for each.

• More...

  The list of recommendations is extensive. Should the Little Rock Police Department choose to implement any or all recommendations, it must be recognized that this process will not take just weeks or even months to complete, but perhaps years. The recommendations are intended to form the basis of a long-term improvement plan for the city and department. It is important that we emphasize that this list of recommendations, though lengthy, is common in our operational assessments of agencies around the country and should in no way be interpreted as an indictment of what we consider to be a fine department. While all of the recommendations are important, we suggest the Little Rock Police Department in conjunction with other city departments, the city council, the city manager, and members of the community decide which recommendations should take priority for implementation.   

Washington, DC: Center for Public Safety Management, 2022. 212p.

By Sara B. Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh & Max Kapustin   

  This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. Out-of-sample accuracy is strikingly high: of the 500 people with the highest predicted risk, almost 13 percent are shot within 18 months, a rate 128 times higher than the average Chicagoan. A central concern is that algorithms may “bake in” bias found in police data, overestimating risk for people likelier to interact with police conditional on their behavior. We show that Black male victims more often have enough police contact to generate predictions. But those predictions are not, on average, inflated; the demographic composition of predicted and actual shooting victims is almost identical. There are legal, ethical, and practical barriers to using these predictions to target law enforcement. But using them to target social services could have enormous preventive benefits: predictive accuracy among the top 500 people justifies spending up to $134,400 per person for an intervention that could cut the probability of being shot by half. 

Unpublished Paper, 2023. 64p.

By Brenden Beck

Between 2016 and 2021, more than 400 unarmed people were killed by police during traffic stops. In addition, metropolitan areas that rely more on revenue from fines and fees experience more police killings. This study analyzed over 2,700 U.S. municipalities from 2009 to 2018 to describe the type of municipalities that collect the most money in monetary sanctions and investigate whether killings by police are more frequent in places that rely on fines and fees revenue. The author found that suburbs with larger Black populations rely the most on revenue from monetary sanctions and that municipalities that rely on such revenue have more police killings. This suggests municipalities’ fiscal landscape not only influences police contact with the public but also influences police violence. 

RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences February 2023, 9 (2) 161-181

By Carmen L. Diaz, Michelle Yang,  Miriam Northcutt Bohmert , Jessica Meckes, Mitchell Farrell,

Cash bail payments are generally imposed to ensure an individual appears in court after arrest. Lesser known is the practice of bond conversion, wherein bond money is held to pay for legal financial obligations if the individual is found guilty. Procedural justice theory is a useful framework for understanding bail processes. Individuals subject to bond conversion may experience distrust towards a system whose policies are not transparent, potentially reducing compliance with the law. We conduct an assessment of statutes relevant to bond conversion for all 50 states and the US Code. Nearly half of all states and the US Code permit bond conversion via statute; statutes most often authorize conversion to pay for fines, costs, and restitution; most do not require the depositor be given notice, do not include language making exceptions for low-income individuals, and do not exclude third parties.

Federal Sentencing Reporter, 34(2-3):119-127

By Keith Finlay, Elizabeth Luh, Matthew Gross and Michael Mueller-Smith.

  We estimate the causal impact of financial sanctions in the U.S. criminal justice system. We utilize a regression discontinuity design and exploit two distinct natural experiments: the abrupt introduction of driver responsibility fees (DRF) in Michigan and Texas. These discontinuously imposed additional surcharges ($300–$6,000) for criminal traffic offenses. Although the policies generated almost $3 billion of debt, we find consistent evidence that the DRFs had no impact on recidivism, earnings, or romantic partners’ outcomes over the next decade. Without evidence of a general or specific deterrence effect and modest success with debt collection, we find little justification for these policies.

Unpublished paper, 2022. 47p.