By Nicole M. Smith, Kady Seguin, U. Mete Saka, Sebnem Duzgun, Ashley Smith-Roberts, David Soud, Jenna White

Illicit gold flows constitute a major development challenge for governments and a social responsibility challenge for many industries along gold supply chains, including gold refiners and jewelry retailers. This paper highlights aspects of gold supply chains that lack transparency and may indicate junctures where illicit activities are taking place, resulting in a loss of tax and customs revenues. Using Peru and Kenya as case study countries, we draw from United Nations Comtrade data and qualitative data from field research to examine the magnitude of the gold trade, the forms in which gold is traded, discrepancies in reported trade data, and key trade partners for each country. We suggest that certain portions of gold supply chains should be given more attention, some types of gold exports and imports present greater traceability challenges than others, and some countries play a much more significant role in the global gold trade. We propose areas where further investigations may be warranted to ensure more transparent and responsible gold supply chains.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 42–59. 2024

By Fabian Zhilla

This study asserts that the repatriation of foreign fighters from the conflict in Ukraine poses a significant threat to the peace and stability of Southeast Europe within the realm of organized crime. It contends that Southeast Europe serves as fertile ground for foreign fighters during times of war crises, facilitating their exploitation by organized crime for illicit purposes. Regarding the context of Southeast Europe, the study argues, firstly, that serious organized crime groups demonstrate a propensity to recruit individuals with military experience. Secondly, it underscores the historical roots of foreign fighters presence in the region, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lastly, it highlights the inadequate response and policies at both national and European Union levels to address this concern in the region.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 30–41. 2024.

Edited By Knut Rio, Michelle MacCarthy, Ruy Blanes

This book presents fresh ethnographic work from the regions of Africa and Melanesia—where the popularity of charismatic Christianity can be linked to a revival and transformation of witchcraft. The volume demonstrates how the Holy Spirit has become an adversary to the reconfirmed presence of witches, demons, and sorcerers as manifestations of evil. We learn how this is articulated in spiritual warfare, in crusades, and in healing or witch-killing raids. The contributors highlight what happens to phenomena that people address as locally specific witchcraft or sorcery when re-molded within the universalist Pentecostal demonology, vocabulary, and confrontational methodology.

Cham: Springer Nature, 2017. 311p.

By Asian Racing Federation

The ARF’s latest compendium of 2 major reports and 18 articles collates the Council’s latest research on the threat of illegal betting markets to the integrity of racing and other sports. From February 2023to April 2024, the ARF Council's Bulletins have been shedding light on the ways technological breakthroughs can be exploited by organized crime, all of which are now included in one edition.

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2024. 192p.

By Asian Racing Federation

This report examines Mainland China’s crackdown on illegal betting from 2018 to mid-2021, its background, purpose and impact. It is based on official announcements and statistics, 315 Mainland Chinese media articles related to illegal betting, and English-language reports. The report details:

·         Why China is so concerned about illegal betting

·         Insights into the scale of the problem

·         The crackdown’s impact on wider illegal betting in Asia

·         Notable shared characteristics of illegal betting operations

·         Why China’s crackdown is relevant to other jurisdictions

Hong Kong: Asian Racing Federation, 2021. 14p.

By Erica Gaston and Fiona Mangan

Reconceptualize peace operation tools in ways that would better respond to transnational organized crime, including elevating it as a priority task or considering transnationally operational missions. Position UN entities and missions for more informed political economy-focused responses, including through cultivating staff expertise related to anti-corruption and financial crime, and improving whole-of-mission intelligence capacity. Protect and reinforce transnational monitoring and enforcement tools, including revamping sanctions regimes, protecting and buttressing panels of experts, and supporting civil society or private sector information flows and watchdog activities. Consider issues related to organized crime and trafficking in prevention and peacebuilding, including national prevention strategies, mediation and good offices, and peacebuilding forums and programming  

 New York: United Nations University, Centre for Policy Research, 2024. 15p.  

By Peter Leasure

While some have argued that drug-induced homicide laws were largely meant to target higher-level drug dealers, others have pointed out that most drug-induced homicide prosecutions have involved low-level dealers as well as family and friends of victims. However, no research has formally explored public opinion about whether there should be differing levels of culpability in drug-induced homicide scenarios. This study examined whether perceived culpability levels in a drug-induced homicide situation differed by race and factual scenario. We utilized an experimental information provision survey sent to heads of households in South Carolina. There were two randomized treatments. The first treatment was race (White and African American). Participants were randomly assigned scenarios with two White individuals, two African American individuals, or one White and one African American individual. The second treatment randomly assigned participants to one of two factual scenarios. In the first scenario, participants received a fact pattern where both individuals (trafficker and user/victim) had an existing friendship, and the trafficker was not a traditional drug dealer. In the second scenario, participants received a fact pattern where there was no existing friendship, and the trafficker was a traditional drug dealer. Our results showed large and statistically significant differences between scenarios that involved a friend relationship and a dealer relationship. Specifically, respondents who received the dealer scenarios were far more likely to assign culpability. Additionally, our results did not indicate levels of culpability assignment that were significantly (statistically) higher for African American traffickers when compared to White traffickers. Relevant decision-makers may want to consider policies or formal laws that recognize public opinion favoring lower culpability levels for traffickers in drug-induced homicide scenarios that are not traditional dealers.

Ohio State Legal Studies Research Paper No. 828 Drug Enforcement and Policy Center, February 2024

By Kevin Brookes and Édouard Hesse

Bringing new and innovative ideas to light and advancing liberal reforms is the core mission of the European Liberal Forum. We do not do this alone but in close cooperation with a network of member and partner organizations across Europe. The present English translation of an original report by the French liberal think-tank GenerationLibre is part of this broader effort. Through this collaboration, we hope that the report’s important messages will reach a wider audience, in Europe and beyond. What better topic to start our collaboration than cannabis, as plans for the liberalization of the drug unfold across the continent. In December 2021, Malta became the first EU Member State to legalize the cultivation and personal consumption of cannabis. The new German government is contemplating similar legalization, and other countries could follow suit. Legalizing is a difficult endeavor, as this report shows, but a necessary one since the detrimental consequences of criminalization have never been felt more clearly. Prohibition is a failure. It has not managed to stem the rise in cannabis consumption rates, either in Europe or worldwide; it has failed to protect users from the most acute forms of harm; and it has contributed to the growth of criminal networks. This can be seen in Europe, where entire swathes of our cities are under the control of organized crime, whose main revenues originate from the illegal cannabis business. Those who prohibition should in theory protect the most, youngsters who are most at risk of harm when using the drug, are the main victims, sometimes literally, from the current situation. Prohibition is also at odds with our liberal values. The state should inform and provide a helping hand to those who err but should not prosecute and imprison people who have freely decided to engage in risky practices. The law should refrain from expressing moral judgments and only prohibit behaviors that bring significant harm to others or society. From this perspective, there is only a weak basis for prohibiting cannabis, a substance far less problematic for public health than alcohol and tobacco  Fully legalising cannabis is the only way forward. But decriminalization is only a first step towards the inclusion of cannabis in the normal legal channels of the economy. It would not only constitute a significant reform of our police and criminal justice systems, but it would also enable public authorities to devise an effective public health policy, targeting youngsters especially. It would also allow an entirely new economic sector to flourish, creating hundreds of thousands of jobs across Europe and generating a considerable amount of revenue for the public purse. Based on a systematic and thorough review of past and current experiences in cannabis legalization, this report shows, perhaps unsurprisingly, that, as in many other areas, free market solutions are superior to state planning and state monopolies. Only a legal solution that is sufficiently cheap and competitive can replace the black market and bring the benefits expected from legalization. The state should regulate the product and ensure that those who participate in the cannabis business offer sufficient guarantees but it should not arbitrarily set prices or restrict distribution channels – to do so would run the risk of having legalized ‘for nothing’. Europe has all the cards in hand to be at the forefront of drug policy reform and show the rest of the world that another path is possible. Courage and method are all we now need  

Brussels:  European Liberal Forum EUPF , 2022. 53p.

By Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera, Charles Lewis and William Yaworsky

This article explains some of the mechanisms through which corruption by high-level Mexican politicians and other organized crime members is facilitated in the United States through money laundering operations. The analysis is based on information contained in court records related to key money laundering cases, as well as in news articles and reports from law enforcement agencies. These materials highlight the interrelationships among U.S. drug use, cartel activities in Mexico, human rights abuses, Mexican political corruption, and money laundering in the United States. This work demonstrates the pervasive use of legitimate businesses and fronts in the United States as a disguise for criminal activity. Finally, it provides recommendations for a reformation of policies and penalties directed toward U.S. institutions and persons that facilitate money laundering.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 64–78. 2024

By Fabian Zhilla

This study asserts that the repatriation of foreign fighters from the conflict in Ukraine poses a significant threat to the peace and stability of Southeast Europe within the realm of organized crime. It contends that Southeast Europe serves as fertile ground for foreign fighters during times of war crises, facilitating their exploitation by organized crime for illicit purposes. Regarding the context of Southeast Europe, the study argues, firstly, that serious organized crime groups demonstrate a propensity to recruit individuals with military experience. Secondly, it underscores the historical roots of foreign fighters presence in the region, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Lastly, it highlights the inadequate response and policies at both national and European Union levels to address this concern in the region.

Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 30–41. 2024.

By Raul Zepeda Gil

One of the main inquiry topics within crime and conflict studies is how inequalities or poverty fosters or deters participation in organized violence. Since the late 1990s, the increase in violence in Latin America has boosted the use of Global North criminology and conflict studies to explain this phenomenon. Although helpful, the question about the link between inequality and violence remains elusive. Instead, this research uses occupational mobility and life course approaches to analyze the latest Mexican inmate survey data. With this data, we can understand the factors behind youth recruitment into violent criminal organizations during the current drug war. The main findings point to youth transitions from school and low-skilled manual employment towards criminal violent activities as an option out of work precariousness. This research proposes researching transitions to organized violence as an occupational choice in market economies and post-conflict settlements as a possible causal mechanism that explains inequalities and violence.

   Journal of Illicit Economies and Development, 6(1): pp. 1–15, 2024

By Tobias Kammersgaard  , Kristian Relsted Fahnøe  , Nanna Kappel  , Katrine Schepelern Johansen , Esben Houborg 

Based on a survey (n = 249) and qualitative interviews (n = 38) with marginalized people who use drugs (PWUDs) in Copenhagen, Denmark, we investigate the experiences of this group with the police in a context where drug possession had been depenalized in and around drug consumption rooms (DCRs). Our findings point to positive experiences with the police, especially with the local community police in the depenalization zone, who refrained from drug law enforcement and practiced ’harm reduction policing.’ However, marginalized PWUDs also reported that they were still targeted for drug possession by other sections of the police despite the depenalization policy. Specifically, the drug squad of the police would continue to confiscate illicit drugs for investigatory purposes to counter organized drug crime, as well as continue to target user-dealers who were not formally included in the depenalization policy. The findings illustrate how marginalized PWUDs still found themselves in a precarious legal situation without any legal rights to possess the drugs that they were dependent on, even though possession of drugs had been depenalized in and around DCRs.

International Journal of Drug Policy 127 (2024) 104393 

By Delvon T. Mattingly a b, Maggie K. Richardson c, Joy L. Hart 

Cannabis use is increasing due to several factors including the adoption of laws legalizing its use across the United States (US). We examined changes in current cannabis use among US youth and adults and by key sociodemographic groups. Methods: Using data from the 2013-2022 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (n=543,195), we estimated the prevalence of (2013-2019, 2020, 2021-2022) and trends in (2013 2019, 2021-2022) current (i.e., past 30-day) cannabis use among US youth (aged 12-17) and adults (aged 18+) overall and by age, gender, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, and total annual family income. We also examined sociodemographic factors associated with use from 2013-2019, in 2020, and from 2021-2022. Results: Cannabis use increased from 7.59% to 11.48% in 2013-2019, was 11.54% in 2020, and increased again from 13.13% to 15.11% in 2021-2022. Among youth, cannabis use remained constant from 2013-2019 and 2021-2022. In 2022, use was highest among aged adults 18-34, male, non-Hispanic multiracial, and generally lower SES adults. From 2021-2022, cannabis use increased among several groups such as adults who were aged 35-49 (14.25% to 17.23%), female (11.21% to 13.00%), and Hispanic (10.42% to 13.50%). Adults who were aged 18-25, male, non-Hispanic multiracial, some college educated, and of lower annual family income had consistently higher odds of current cannabis use from 2013-2019, in 2020, and from 2021-2022. Conclusions: Cannabis use is increasing overall and among certain sociodemographic groups. Our findings inform prevention and harm reduction efforts aimed at mitigating the burden of cannabis use in the US. 

Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports

By Colette Ashton

Strengthening existing institutions, prioritising prevention and engaging the private sector are needed to end corruption.

This report analyses South Africa’s anti-corruption institutions in relation to international good practice. It highlights problems with their functional independence and organisational culture. It identifies a serious gap in the area of prevention. Among the recommendations are that South Africa undertake feasible, incremental improvements to existing institutions and engage the private sector to help prevent and detect corruption.

Key findings There is insufficient empirical research on corruption in South Africa to inform context sensitive policy reform. Anti-corruption institutions are governed by a parallel informal system of social norms held in place by incentives such as promotion and disincentives such as bullying. This organisational culture prioritises obedience to authority over ethics, eroding integrity. A culture of mistrust and competition exists between law enforcement agencies, hampering collaboration. Feasible, incremental reforms of anti-corruption institutions are needed in the short term, focusing on organisational culture. Recommendations Strengthen existing agencies Amend the National Prosecuting Authority Act so that: the National Director of Public Prosecutions (NDPP) is the accounting officer; the budget is allocated by Parliament; there are merit-based appointment processes and security of tenure for senior leaders; and the NDPP has control over human resources. Develop context-sensitive prosecutorial prioritisation policy that focuses on the criteria of redress for economic harm and is mindful of the need for political stability. Revise performance targets of law enforcement agencies to incentivise cooperation, not competition. Build cultures of integrity, trust and cooperation in and among anti-corruption agencies. Prioritise prevention Work towards an independent anti-corruption prevention agency. Urgently provide the Public Administration Ethics Integrity and Disciplinary Technical Assistance Unit in the Department of Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation with increased funding and independence. 2 The NPA should be given control over its own budget and human resources, which are currently controlled by the Department of Justice and Constitutional Development. Effective anti-corruption agencies in developing countries may trigger political instability. Political stability is a precondition for economic growth, which in the long term creates conditions for more effective anti-corruption institutions. Equitable economic development is a precondition for the transformation of more economically harmful types of corruption, e.g. plunder, into less harmful types, e.g. lobbying. The private sector is a key partner for government in the prevention and detection of corruption. Prioritise integrity in government by promoting ethical employees. Prioritise corruption prevention in the South African Police Service. Change the incentive structure for the private sector Introduce a statute providing for non-trial resolutions of corporate corruption cases to incentivise companies to self-police corruption. Develop capacity in the Companies and Intellectual Property Commission to support companies to develop effective anti corruption compliance programmes. Partner with the private sector to run collective action programmes in key sectors such as health, construction and shipping. Research Conduct a risk analysis for a proposed Chapter 9 anti-corruption super-agency with investigative and prosecutorial powers. Conduct research into a two-track criminal and administrative anti-corruption enforcement system. Conduct more empirical, sector-specific research into corruption

Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2024. 28p,

By Colette Ashton

Developing country theorists claim that strategies should focus on human behaviour and economic incentives, not legal measures.

To remedy systemic corruption in South Africa, policymakers must look beyond the discourse of transparency and accountability to emerging anti-corruption theory. Policy research in this field should be multi-disciplinary, grounded in empirical research and informed by decolonial thought. There is a need for more research into the unique types and drivers of corruption at national, local and sector-specific levels, to inform policy reform.

Key findings There is international consensus that anti-corruption reforms often fail or backfire, particularly in developing countries. The dominant Western good governance approach should be supplemented by theory emerging from other schools of thought from developing countries. The good governance approach recommends transparency and accountability, prioritising better laws and improved enforcement as the primary solutions. Theorists from developing countries claim that where there is systemic corruption, it is more helpful to focus on human behaviour and economic incentives to prevent corruption. Legalistic measures tend to be one-dimensional, ineffective and sometimes harmful. Recommendations Government should: Reconsider policies in light of emerging theory and evidence from global anti- corruption practices. Develop a strategy for communicating alternative perspectives and approaches to heads and staff of anti-corruption agencies and other government institutions. Researchers should: 2 Conduct localised and sector-specific empirical research into corruption in South Africa. Conduct qualitative research into the social norms governing government institutions and the private sector. Critically analyse the South African anti corruption discourse through a decolonial lens. Social norms – what people expect others to do – are the unwritten rules governing institutions and are a primary driver of corruption. For many, obeying these rules is a logical response to structural conditions, including economic incentives and disincentives. Research shows that most people are inclined to behave ethically if their environment facilitates it. Reframing corruption as a collective action problem, where policy is designed to influence the behaviour of groups, is likely to result in more effective anti-corruption initiatives. Economic development that delivers more equitable distribution of opportunities and wealth is a precondition for building a state with the capacity to reduce corruption. Determine who the rule-following elites are and devise ways to incentivise them to exert pressure on non-rule-following elites. NGOs should: Develop partnerships with institutions working with alternative theoretical/policy approaches. Explore opportunities for cooperation with business and government in developing sector specific anti-corruption projects. Develop and execute a strategy for communicating alternative perspectives to civil society and media, and in doing so, highlight success stories. Develop pilot anti-corruption reform projects based on emerging alternative perspectives

Pretoria: Institute for Security Studies, 2024. 12p.

By Donald S. Kenkel, Alan D. Mathios, Grace N. Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang & Sen Zeng

The Food and Drug Administration has proposed to prohibit menthol cigarettes, which are smoked by almost 19 million people in the U.S. Illegal markets for menthol cigarettes could not only blunt the prohibition’s intended consequence to reduce smoking but could also lead to unintended consequences. We use data from a discrete choice experiment to estimate a mixed logit model which predicts that the prohibition of menthol cigarettes would substantially increase the fraction of menthol smokers who attempt to quit. However, our model also predicts a substantial potential consumer demand for illegal menthol cigarettes. Depending on the impact of illegality on product prices, our model predicts the potential demand-side of an illegal market for menthol cigarettes could be 59-92 percent the size of the status quo market if menthol e-cigarettes are legal, and 69-100 percent the size of the status quo market if menthol e-cigarettes are also illegal. Our mixed logit model estimated in willingness to pay space implies that the mean WTP to avoid an illegal retail market is equivalent to a tax of $8.44 per pack. In our partial cost-benefit analysis, the opportunity costs of prohibition exceed the value of the reduction in mortality risks from secondhand smoke by $15.4 billion annually.

NBER Working Paper No. 32148 February 2024

Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2024.

By Barrett Wallace Montgomery, Arnie Aldridge, Dara Drawbridge, Ira Packer, Gina M Vincent, Rosa Rodriguez-Monguio

Individuals within the criminal justice system are at greater risk of substance use–related morbidity and mor tality and have substantial healthcare needs. In this quasi-experimental study, we assessed utilization patterns of Massachusetts Medicaid Program (MassHealth) services and associated expenditures among drug court probationers compared to a propensity score–matched sample of traditional court probationers. Risk of reoffending, employment status, age, and living arrangement data were used to calculate propensity scores and match probationers between the two court types, producing a final sample of 271 in each court (N=542). Utilization of services and associated expenditures were analyzed using a two-part model to address the skewed distribution of the data and to control for residual differences after matching from the perspective of the payer (i.e., MassHealth). The largest categories of MassHealth spending were prescription pharmaceuticals, hospital inpatient visits, and physician visits. In the unadjusted analysis, drug court probationers exhibited greater MassHealth services utilization and expenditures than traditional court probationers. However, drug courts enrolled more females, more people at higher risk of reoffending, and more people with opioid use disorders. After controlling for differences between the two court types, the difference in MassHealth services utilization and associated expenditures did not reach statistical significance. Drug court probationers were more likely to engage with healthcare services but did not incur significantly greater expenditures than traditional court probationers after controlling for differences between the samples.  

Drug and Alcohol Dependence Reports 12 (2024) 100258

By U.S. Department of Homeland Security

Deepfakes, an emergent type of threat falling under the greater and more pervasive umbrella of synthetic media, utilize a form of artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) to create believable, realistic videos, pictures, audio, and text of events that never happened. Many applications of synthetic media represent innocent forms of entertainment, but others carry risk. The threat of Deepfakes and synthetic media comes not from the technology used to create it, but from people’s natural inclination to believe what they see, and as a result, deepfakes and synthetic media do not need to be particularly advanced or believable in order to be effective in spreading mis/disinformation. Based on numerous interviews conducted with experts in the field, it is apparent that the severity and urgency of the current threat from synthetic media depends on the exposure, perspective, and position of who you ask. The spectrum of concerns ranged from “an urgent threat” to “don’t panic, just be prepared.” To help customers understand how a potential threat might arise, and what that threat might look like, we considered a number of scenarios specific to the arenas of commerce, society, and national security. The likelihood of any one of these scenarios occurring and succeeding will undoubtedly increase as the cost and other resources needed to produce usable deepfakes simultaneously decreases - just as synthetic media became easier to create as non-AI/ML techniques became more readily available. In line with the multifaceted nature of the problem, there is no one single or universal solution, though elements of technological innovation, education, and regulation must comprise part of any detection and mitigation measures. In order to have success there will have to be significant cooperation among stakeholders in the private and public sectors to overcome current obstacles such as “stovepiping” and to ultimately protect ourselves from these emerging threats while protecting civil liberties.

Washington, DC: DHS, 2021.  47p.

By Thomas D. Akoensi, Justice Tankebe

Using an experimental vignette design, the study investigates the effects of criminal records on the hiring decisions of a convenience sample of 221 human resource (HR) managers in Ghana. The HR managers were randomly assigned to read one of four vignettes depicting job seekers of different genders and criminal records: male with and without criminal record, female with and without criminal record. The evidence shows that a criminal record reduces employment opportunities for female offenders but not for their male counterparts. Additionally, HR managers are willing to offer interviews to job applicants, irrespective of their criminal records, if they expect other managers to hire ex-convicts. The implications of these findings are discussed.

The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice, Volume 63, Issue 3, Pages: 272-285 | Oct.2024

José Carlos Hernández-Gutiérrez

The phenomenon of organized crime in Mexico is not new. However, it is no less true that, for a few years now, violence caused by or related to criminal organizations has been registering higher levels than ever. This has caused, from different spheres, to wonder if indeed the problem facing the country can still be called organized crime. Can non-state armed actors in Mexico qualify as terrorists? Have they evolved into some form of insurgency? The author of these pages, after conducting a bibliographic review on the variants of terrorism and insurgency used by some authors to refer to the Mexican case, affirms that Mexican criminal organizations are not terrorists or insurgents, but rather profit-making organizations that make a tactical use of terrorism and / or insurgency to achieve economic benefits or the goals of their organizations.

2021, Los desafíos de la globalización: respuestas desde América Latina y la Unión Europea