By Gergely Hideg

The household firearms possession rate in Ukraine has been stable since the 2022 Russian invasion. At that time, 6 percent of households reported possessing firearms, which is similar to the 5.6 per cent that did so in a more recent survey carried out at the end of 2023. In fact, in the sampled households the aggregate number of firearms kept at home decreased by 15 per cent during the same period. • During this period, crime victimization levels were only slightly above pre-2022 levels; however, when crimes occur, firearms are increasingly more likely to be used. In late 2023, 11 per cent of all victims said they encountered a firearm during the crime incidents they experienced during the previous 12 months, up from 6 per cent a year earlier. Findings from the latest survey reveal that at the end of 2023, nearly four out of ten firearm owning households were unaware of the Unified Register of Weapons (39 per cent), which was launched in June 2023.  About three-quarters (74 per cent) of respondents whose households owned firearms and knew about the register said all their weapons were registered. Among all survey respondents who reported firearms possession at home, however, only 45 per cent indicated that their firearms were registered. • The war is resulting in an increase in the population of soldiers and veterans, who as a whole tend to adopt distinct attitudes towards firearm ownership. For instance, 31 percent of respondents with combat experience (pre- or post-2022) reported a firearm at their home and 18 per cent declared owning a firearm personally— compared with only about 6 and 3 per cent, respectively, for the general population

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2024. 11p. 

By Julien Joly and Aline Shaban

The sources of illicit small arms in West Africa are multiple and evolving, and not limited to the diversion of international transfers. In terms of local sources, the unlicensed artisanal production of firearms has been a recurrent challenge for member states of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). To support governments in addressing this challenge, the Survey conducted a general assessment of artisanal arms production in the ECOWAS region and the main regulatory approaches adopted by states to address their proliferation. This paper aims to stimulate discussion and the exchange of information on good practices among stakeholders to counter the proliferation and illicit use of small arms in West Africa. Key findings - Craft firearm production has deep cultural and economic roots in West Africa and serves different societal needs— and different uses—than industrial firearm production. Demand for craft-produced weapons is dependent on local dynamics. Craft firearms are no longer exclusively rudimentary items. In some instances, their sophistication is comparable to industrially made weapons equipped with automatic and semi-automatic mechanisms. The current regulatory framework for firearm production in West Africa, mandated by the ECOWAS Convention on Small Arms and Light Weapons, Their Ammunition and Other Related Materials, does not distinguish between industrial and craft production, contributing to poor enforcement by the authorities, as well as low awareness and regulation avoidance among craft producers. In addition, the legal provisions often fail to take into account the firing mechanism, which is essential for determining a firearm’s lethality and type of use. Despite the unclear regulatory environment, artisanal producers in West Africa have shown a willingness to professionalize and regularize their work. If national authorities can refine legislative frameworks to reflect actual craft production practices and products, this willingness could serve as a basis for improved cooperation, record-keeping, and marking practices that closely resemble factory-made firearms. Today, craft weapons in the region range from rudimentary hunting weapons to sophisticated copies of self-loading rifles (Assanvo, 2017; Nowak and Gsell, 2018, p. 3). In light of this, craft firearms can offer criminals, insurgent groups, and private citizens a viable alternative to industrial weapons (Hays and Jenzen-Jones, 2018, p. 36). Due to the clandestine—and lucrative—nature of their production, however, regulating the sector presents considerable challenges. Although the ECOWAS Convention provides a basis for the control of local firearm production in West Africa, it does not determine whether the manufacture of craft firearms should be considered separately or together with the manufacture of indus trial weapons. In practice, most national legislation suggests that legal provisions relating to licensing, marking, and record-keeping apply to all manufacturers indiscriminately. Nevertheless, due to technical and financial limitations, craft producers often fail to comply with these provisions, and may be pushed further into the covert side of the arms trade. With a view to informing artisanal firearms control policy, this Briefing Paper provides an overview of craft production dynamics in West Africa and explores the different approaches taken by ECOWAS member states to regulate their production

Geneva, SWIT: Small Arms Survey, 2023. 16p.

By Jacob D. Charles

In popular and professional discourse, debate about the right to keep and bear arms most often revolves around the Second Amendment. But that narrow reference ignores a vast and expansive nonconstitutional legal regime privileging guns and their owners. This collection of non constitutional gun rights confers broad powers and immunities on gun owners that go far beyond those required by the Constitution, like rights to bring guns on private property against an owner’s wishes and to carry a concealed firearm in public with no training or background check. This Article catalogues this set of expansive laws and critically assesses them. Unlike the formal constitutional guarantee, this broad collection is not solely libertarian, concerned only with guaranteeing noninterference with a negative right. Instead, it is also aggressively interventionist, countermanding contrary policy judgments by employers, universities, property owners, and local government officials, conferring robust rights and privileges, and shifting the distribution of violence in society. This Article underscores the rhetorical and legal connection between this gun rights expansionism and the formal Second Amendment guarantee. These laws do not derive from a judicial interpretation of the scope of the Constitution, but they are expressed and advocated for in constitutional terms. The Article also highlights how broad gun rights can create unique harm to the body politic and to marginalized groups by fostering fear and mistrust and empowering sometimes-problematic private actors to proactively police their own communities. Finally, the Article shows how gun-rights expansionism influences constitutional doctrine in the context of the Second Amendment, as well as of the First, Fourth, and Fourteenth Amendments.  

 Michigan Law Review Volume 120 Issue 4 2022  

By : Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

* Suicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes U03, X60–X84, and Y87.0. Firearm-involved suicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes X72–X74.† Homicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes U01–U02, X85–Y09, and Y87.1. Firearm-involved homicide was identified using ICD-10 underlying cause-of-death codes U01.4 and X93–X95.

Top

In 2022, among persons aged ≥10 years, the percentage of suicide deaths involving a firearm was lowest among persons aged 25–44 years (47.4%) and highest among persons aged ≥65 years (70.6%). The percentage of homicide deaths that involved a firearm was highest among persons aged 10–24 years and then decreased with age, from 92.2% among those aged 10–24 years to 44.5% among those aged ≥65 years.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024;73:828. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7337a3

By Jennifer L. Behrens & Joseph Blocher

At a time when Second Amendment doctrine has taken a strongly historical turn and gun rights advocates have increasingly argued that gun regulation itself is historically racist, it is especially important that historical claims about race and guns be taken seriously and vetted appropriately. In this short article, we evaluate the often-repeated claim that the nickname “Saturday Night Special” derives from the phrase “[n___er]-town Saturday night.” Based on a review of newspapers, legislative debates, dictionaries, slang compendiums, and other sources, we find no historical support for this claim. It apparently appeared for the first time, unsourced, in a 1976 article and has been repeated in dozens of briefs and scholarly sources since. Advocates and scholars should stop invoking this unsupported origin story, which if anything serves as a cautionary example of how citations can cascade. The most plausible origin of the nickname as it related to cheap firearms stemmed from the turn of the century when the phrase “Saturday night special” was already in common usage with connotations of cheapness and convenience. 

108 Minnesota Law Review Headnotes 283 (2024) 

By Patrick Sharkey , Megan Kang

Background: The recent rise of gun violence may lead to the perception that the problem of gun mortality in the United States is intractable. This article provides evidence to counter this perception by bringing attention to the period spanning from 1991 to 2016 when most US states implemented more restrictive gun laws. Over this period, the United States experienced a decline in household gun ownership, and gun-related deaths fell sharply.

Methods: The main analysis examines the conditional association between the change in gun regulations at the state level and the change in gun mortality from 1991 to 2016. We include a range of robustness checks and two instrumental variable analyses to allow for stronger causal inferences.

Results: We find strong, consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that restrictive state gun policies reduce overall gun deaths, homicides committed with a gun, and suicides committed with a gun. Each additional restrictive gun regulation a given state passed from 1991 to 2016 was associated with -0.21 (95% confidence interval = -0.33, -0.08) gun deaths per 100,000 residents. Further, we find that specific policies, such as background checks and waiting periods for gun purchases, were associated with lower overall gun death rates, gun homicide rates, and gun suicide rates.

Conclusion: State regulations passed from 1991 to 2016 were associated with substantial reductions in gun mortality. We estimate that restrictive state gun policies passed in 40 states from 1991 to 2016 averted 4297 gun deaths in 2016 alone, or roughly 11% of the total gun deaths that year.

Epidemiology. 2023 Nov 1;34(6):786-792. 2023 Sep 26.

By Eugenio Weigend Vargas, Michelle Degli Esposti, Stephen Hargarten, Laura Vargas and Jason E. Goldstick

Background

Globally, Mexico is one of six countries with the highest level of firearm mortality. While previous studies have examined firearm mortality in Mexico before 2015, increases in violence since then highlight the need for an updated analysis. In this study, we examined changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and described these deaths by key demographic groups, incident location, and state of occurrence. Data came from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a federal agency that collects and reports national population data. We used descriptive statistics to analyze rates, proportions, and percentage changes in firearm mortality, and we displayed temporal trends using time plots and special trends using maps.

Results

Firearm deaths increased in Mexico from 2015 to 2018 but slightly decreased from 2018 to 2022. Homicides presented the highest increase and the highest proportion of firearm-related deaths from 2015 to 2022. Victims were primarily males but rates among women increased at a higher proportion (99.5% vs 53.5%). One third of victims were 20–29y but rates among children and adolescents (10–9y) increased at a higher proportion. Most firearm-related deaths occurred in streets or public spaces but the percentage of incidents occurring in households have increased. State-level rates and percentage changes varied significantly. States with higher rates of firearm mortality coincide with those involving conflict among organized criminal organizations.

Conclusion

Firearm mortality in Mexico is a major public health burden. The epidemiology of firearm-related deaths in Mexico varies by intent, demographics, location, and states. To mitigate this challenge, multiple solutions are required.

Introduction

Previous studies have documented increases in firearm mortality in Mexico from 1990 to 2015 (Dare et al. 2019). Reports from nonprofit organizations and news outlets indicate further increases since 2015, (particularly firearm homicides associated with organized crime) (Calderon et al. 2020), but comprehensive characterization of those trends is lacking. Organized criminal groups continue to operate in Mexico and roughly 213 k firearms are trafficked from the US every year (McDougal et al. 2014). In this regard, further increases in firearm mortality would threaten the future economy and health of Mexico (Peters et al. 2020; Aburto et al. 2016), and yet the lack of precise epidemiological information limits the ability to address this growing national problem with evidence-based programs and policies. In this analysis, we document changes in firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022 and describe these deaths by key demographic groups (e.g., sex, age, and urbanicity), incident location (e.g., households or public spaces) and states where they occurred.

Methods

Data on causes of death were collected from Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Geografia (INEGI), a national vital statistic database that has previously been used to examine firearm mortality in Mexico (Dare et al. 2019; Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023a). INEGI collects annual mortality data and provides information on year of occurrence (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía 2023b). We merged datasets from 2015 to 2022. We excluded deaths that occurred/registered before 2015 and those where year of occurrence was unknown (n = 432), as well as deaths that occurred outside of Mexico (n = 2).

In line with previous studies (Degli Esposti et al. 2023; Cunningham et al. 2018), we identified firearm deaths using the International Classification of Disease (ICD-10) codes for firearm homicide (X93–X95 and U01.4), firearm suicide (X72–X74), unintentional firearm deaths (W32–W34), and firearm deaths of undetermined intent (Y22–Y24). Firearm deaths were further disaggregated by sex and age group (< 10y; 10–19y; 20–29y; 30–39; 40–49y; 50–59y; 60–69y; 70y+) and geographic information (urbanicity, incident location, state of occurrence). Urbanicity was defined using INEGI’s predetermined categories of urbanicity (urban and rural). Similarly, incident location was defined using INEGI’s eight predetermined categories of where deaths occurred (household, school or office, sport fields, streets or public spaces, commercial areas, industrial areas, farms/ranches, and other).

We used descriptive statistics to examine pooled 2015–2022 rates, annual rates for 2015 and 2022 separately, as well as percentage changes (in rates) from 2015 to 2022 across categories of intent, sex, age groups, and state of occurrence. To obtain rates, we used population estimates (by year, sex, age group, and state) provided by Mexico’s Consejo Nacional de Población (CONAPO) (Consejo Nacional de Población 2024). We also examined the percentage of firearm related deaths within categories defined by urbanicity, location, intent, and demographics. We displayed these percentages for 2015, 2022, and the total pooled 2015–2022 period.

Results

We examined 188,397 firearm-related deaths in Mexico from 2015 to 2022. Rates of firearm-related deaths increased by 88.2% from 2015 to 2018 and decreased by 16.7% from 2018 to 2022 (Fig. 1). Homicide accounted for 92.2% of firearm deaths (Table 1) during this period and experienced the highest percentage increase (62.7%) from 2015 (10.37 per 100 k) to 2022 (16.87 per 100 k). Rates of undetermined firearm-related deaths and unintentional shootings also increased during this period (Table 1), while firearm suicide decreased by 23.4% (from 0.47 per 100 k in 2015 to 0.36 per 100 k in 2022).

Injury Epidemiology; 2024

By Chelsa Kenney

Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. Southwest Border Counternarcotics Strategy: 2020 identified the trafficking of firearms from the U.S. into Mexico as a threat to the safety and security of both countries. The Mexican government has estimated that 200,000 firearms are smuggled from the United States each year. GAO was asked to report on U.S. efforts to counter firearms trafficking to Mexico. This report examines (1) the extent of U.S. agencies’ knowledge about firearms trafficking to Mexico and (2) U.S. agencies’ efforts to disrupt this trafficking and the extent to which they have assessed those efforts. GAO reviewed firearms tracing data, related analysis, and program information for fiscal years 2014 through 2020. GAO also interviewed U.S. and Mexican officials. This is a public version of a sensitive report that GAO issued in December 2020. What GAO Recommends GAO is making eight recommendations, including recommending that ATF and ICE analyze additional information about the trafficking of U.S.-sourced firearms to Mexico and that ATF, ICE, CBP, and State develop performance measures to assess the results of their efforts to disrupt this trafficking. The agencies concurred with GAO’s recommendations.   

Washington, DC: United States Government Accountability Office , 2021. 56p.

By U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION OFFICE OF PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY

CBP OPR’s Investigative Operations Directorate (IOD) conducts thorough, impartial, and timely investigations into CBP use of force incidents involving death or serious bodily injury and other critical incidents. This review sought to examine the facts and circumstances surrounding this incident (including use of force by CBP personnel); evaluate whether all personnel complied with relevant rules, regulations, and laws; and determine whether any actions could be taken to improve CBP’s performance in similar situations in the future. On May 24, 2022, at 11:33:02 AM (CDT), a lone assailant, , entered Robb Elementary School through an unsecured exterior side door. Upon entering the school, the assailant quickly moved down the hallway and pulled open one of the doors to adjoining Classrooms 111 and 112, both fourth-grade classrooms full of students and their teachers. An internal doorway connected Classroom 111 and Classroom 112. By entering through either classroom door, the assailant had access to both classrooms. Upon entering the classroom, the assailant began firing a semi-automatic rifle at the children and their teachers in both classrooms. Approximately 77 minutes after the assailant entered the classroom, CBP personnel consisting of Border Patrol Agents (BPAs) assigned to the Border Patrol Tactical Unit (BORTAC), along with state and local law enforcement officials, entered the classroom and, after an exchange of gunfire, shot and killed the assailant. By the time the incident at Robb Elementary was over, the assailant had killed 19 children and 2 teachers. An additional 16 students, teachers, and law enforcement officers were wounded. A total of 188 CBP personnel, along with law enforcement officers from more than 20 other federal, state, and local agencies, responded or provided support during or following the incident. The incident created immense logistical and tactical challenges that severely tested the resources and capabilities of responding officers and agencies. OPR reached the following conclusions based on this review: Involved CBP personnel at all levels had an inconsistent understanding of their authority to respond to non-federal incidents including active shooter situations. None of the responders whom OPR interviewed could cite a specific authority for being at Robb Elementary School on May 24, 2022. The failure of arriving law enforcement personnel to establish identifiable incident management or command and control protocols led to a disorganized response to the Robb Elementary School shooting. No law enforcement official ever clearly established command at the school during the incident, leading to delays, inaction, and potentially further loss of life. CBP personnel responding to the incident did not establish a command and control framework for their own responding personnel, which resulted in responders taking on tasks on an ad-hoc basis as requested by local law enforcement or at their own initiative.

OPR determined existing CBP training on active shooter response procedures did not adequately prepare responding personnel to deal with this situation. The current training and curriculum did not include the proper application of National Incident Management System (NIMS) or Incident Command System (ICS) protocols and did not prepare them for a number of factors, including the need to address an active shooter behind a locked door. None of the first responders from state, local, or federal law enforcement agencies in a position to take action against the assailant had access to an accurate school layout or knew how to obtain the correct keys to gain access to critical areas of the school. Additionally, none of the first responders from law enforcement agencies had the necessary tools to adequately breach the outwardly opening metal doors to Classrooms 111 and 112. Only one CBP law enforcement officer who arrived on scene had access to a Halligan tool (used for forcibly opening a locked door). CBP personnel established a medical triage area in the hallway of the west building and provided lifesaving care for multiple victims. However, the overall chaotic response caused by the lack of command and control led to the breakdown of adherence to established medical protocols for a mass-casualty incident. This led to some victims with gunshot wounds being inadvertently placed on a school bus without receiving immediate medical treatment. In the immediate aftermath of this incident, numerous investigative agencies, including the Texas Rangers and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), began to independently interview personnel and recover evidence, leading to fragmented crime scene processing and evidence collection. Text messages and other records from cellular devices used by CBP personnel during the incident were not obtained until OPR identified this deficiency and collected most of these materials months following the incident. Coordination with other investigative entities could prevent this oversight in the future. CBP lacked procedures for establishing a centralized point from which to disseminate all information pertaining to the incident. A centralized point of dissemination would have helped to ensure accurate and timely distribution of information while preserving the integrity of ongoing investigations. OPR made the following recommendations based on its review: CBP must ensure its officers, agents, and managers understand and properly work within the confines of their authority. To the extent CBP intends for its personnel to continue to respond to mass violence incidents in a non-federal setting, policy or law must be generated to ensure they have proper authority to do so. All CBP personnel tasked with responding to incidents such as the one at Robb Elementary School should be familiar with NIMS or ICS protocols. CBP should make NIMS or ICS protocols a facet of CBP’s response protocols. CBP’s active shooter training and doctrine should be revised to align with continuously emerging best practices, including lessons learned from this incident. Once the training is revised, all first responders within CBP should receive comprehensive training and the tools necessary to deal with the management of and response to active shooter events. CBP should establish procedures for following medical best practices during critical events and ensure that all CBP personnel are trained to properly assess people requiring medical care, especially because CBP personnel might arrive on scene before emergency medical technicians (EMTs) and paramedics. Responding to critical incidents can overwhelm both an organization’s and individuals’ ability to cope. The mental health needs of first responders must be addressed through comprehensive and universally established protocols. CBP should continue to invest in best practices for responding to critical incidents of all types, including mass violence events, focusing on the healing involved.

Washington, DC: U.S. CUSTOMS AND BORDER PROTECTION OFFICE OF PROFESSIONAL RESPONSIBILITY 2024. 203p.

By Julia Korkman

Traffickers often use manipulation to tie their victims with what is sometimes called “invisible chains”. These, often subtle and large ly psychological means of controlling and manipulating victims are hard to detect and prove by the criminal justice system. The terms used for this phenomenon in the scientific literature are psychological coercion, psychological control and coercive control. IN THIS POLICY brief, we use the term psychological coercion, as it is widely used in the human trafficking literature. This policy brief pro vides a brief insight into psychological coercion as a phenomenon, what is known about the use of such coercion in the context of trafficking in human beings and how investigators can strive to address the issue of psychological coercion within criminal investigation

Helsinki: HEUNI, 2023. 4p.

By The Little Hoover Commision

California must improve and expand efforts to identify labor trafficking, the state’s independent government watchdog recommends in a new report.

In Labor Trafficking: Strategies to Uncover this Hidden Crime, the Little Hoover Commission calls for increased efforts to identify labor trafficking through better training, data collection, and public awareness. This is the Commission’s second report studying California’s response to human trafficking and builds upon the recommendation from its first report on the topic, released in June 2020, to create a statewide Anti-Human Trafficking Council.

“Too often, this heinous crime goes undetected, and those who have been preyed upon have nowhere to turn,” said Commission Chair Pedro Nava. “This horrible crime demands an aggressive response, and our recommendations will help California do just that.”

Labor trafficking occurs when employers use force, fraud or coercion to exert a level of control over workers that leaves them trapped in oppressive situations. It can occur in a variety of workplaces, including restaurants, construction sites, farm fields, and households, and is often very difficult to detect. Widespread unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic may contribute to the conditions necessary for labor trafficking to flourish.

The Commission’s report focuses on the obstacles that make it difficult to identify labor trafficking, including a lack of enforcement of anti-trafficking laws and a lack of familiarity about the issue among government officials and the public. The report also notes that the state’s primary focus has been on combatting sex trafficking, a focus that must continue but be expanded to include labor trafficking as well.

“We need to know where labor trafficking is occurring in California and who is being affected so we can direct resources to help victims and bring traffickers to justice,” explained Commissioner Cynthia Buiza, chair of the Commission’s subcommittee for the labor trafficking studies. “More information will mean a stronger state response.”

The report also notes the strides taken by state officials to combat and deter child sex trafficking and calls for similar investment in protections for child victims of labor trafficking.

“It is crucial that all children are protected,” said Commissioner Dion Aroner, a member of the study’s subcommittee. “Nothing is more important than ensuring that California’s youngest and most vulnerable residents do not fall prey to the evil of human trafficking.”

Report #251, September 2020; Sacramento: Little Hoover Commission, 2020. 30p.

By The Little Hoover Commission

The Commission assessed California’s efforts to combat labor trafficking in 2020 and produced three reports that included recommendations to strengthen the state’s stance against this horrific crime. Together, in these reports, the Commission offers recommendations to help California coordinate its response to human trafficking, detect labor trafficking, help victims, and bring traffickers to justice. In 2023, the Commission held a public hearing and sought additional input from five state agencies to learn about progress made towards implementing its recommendations. As part of this follow-up review, the Commission found a growing need for support of labor trafficking survivors. Yet, barriers—such as insufficient resources to identify and prosecute this crime—continue to undermine the state’s efforts. These challenges are exacerbated by gaps in state and local leadership that hinder continuity of effort in anti-trafficking work. Coordinating Leadership Around Anti-Trafficking Activities In its initial study, the Commission found that California’s response to human trafficking focuses principally on combatting sex trafficking. Additionally, the state lacks a coordinated strategy to target human trafficking statewide. In its report, Human Trafficking: Coordinating a California Response, the Commission recommended the creation of an antihuman trafficking council to build and enhance collaboration among communities throughout the state, study and improve services for survivors of both sex and labor trafficking, and assist in the successful prosecution of human traffickers. While there have been several legislative attempts to create such a coordinating body, none have been successful thus far. Nonetheless, representatives from regional human trafficking task forces told the Commission that such an entity would elevate trafficking as an explicit statewide priority, help them to implement strategies to identify labor trafficking, share best practices, and access published case law. California must institutionalize its response to human trafficking through the creation of a state-level centralized hub. Uncovering Labor Trafficking Combatting labor trafficking within California must begin with effectively detecting this crime— whenever and wherever it occurs. Yet, uncovering labor trafficking can be particularly challenging, as few understand the nature of the crime and to the untrained observer, the work itself may appear legitimate. In its report, Labor Trafficking: Strategies to Uncover this Hidden Crime, the Commission identified several strategies to help California better detect labor trafficking, including through increased worker training, public education and outreach, and equal application of statutory protections to help identify and address all forms of child trafficking. In its review, the Commission found some efforts to improve identification of this crime, such as periodic training on labor trafficking for certain public officials and workers, increased public awareness resources, and legislative attempts to equally address all forms of child human trafficking. While important, these efforts do not meet the scale or scope envisioned by the Commission in its original study. California must expand upon this work to have a chance at significantly reducing labor trafficking. In this report, the Commission reiterates a few such opportunities, including regular and robust support to train public officials to serve as “first identifiers,” expanded worker training opportunities and informational campaigns across industry sectors, and statutory amendments to ensure equal protection against all forms of trafficking.

Report #278; Sacramento: Little Hoover Commision, 2024. 25p.

By Jessica Reichert and Maryann Mason

In the United States, firearm homicide is a major public health concern. Certain populations are at greater risk for being a victim of firearm homicide, such as those with prior criminal justice involvement. The overlap between violent victimization and offense history, referred to as the victim-offender overlap, is empirically supported, but research is limited on the overlap of firearm homicide victimization and justice involvement. Therefore, we examined the extent of victim-offender overlap of firearm homicide decedents by matching Illinois public health data with state arrest data. A total of 1,331 firearm homicide decedents were examined, including 20.4% (n = 271) with no arrest records and 79.7% (n = 1,060) with an arrest record, as well as 55.6% (n = 740) with a prior conviction and 31.8% (n = 423) with a prior incarceration. A higher proportion of firearm homicide victims with an arrest record were male, another race than White, non-Latinx, and single or never married than those without an arrest record. This study further supports the existence of the victim-offender overlap and highlights demographic disparities in criminal justice involvement among victims of fatal firearm violence.

Chicago: Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority, 2023. 16p.

By Vaughn Crandall, Reygan Cunningham, and Robin Campbell

Gun violence inflicts a grim toll on our nation. Every single day, 120 Americans are killed with guns and more than 200 are shot and wounded. Gun violence is the leading cause of death of children and teens in the U.S. Homicide is the leading cause of death for Black men under 44 and the second leading cause of death for Latino men. Both African American and Latinx communities are impacted by gun violence at rates that far exceed those of white communities. The economic consequences have been calculated to exceed $550 billion annually.

Oakland:  California Partnership for Safe Communities, 2024. 15p

By Brian A. Jackson, Melissa Kay Diliberti, Pauline Moore, Heather L. Schwartz

Shooting incidents at kindergarten through grade 12 (K–12) schools in the United States, including mass attacks like the one that killed 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, have sparked calls to increase security or adopt altogether new approaches to school safety. These approaches include allowing teachers or staff to carry firearms in some schools. To learn what teachers across the United States think about school safety generally and about specific proposals to enhance safety in schools, such as teacher-carry policies, RAND researchers administered a survey to a randomly sampled set of 973 K–12 teachers using the American Teacher Panel. The survey focused on teachers' views of safety in their schools, including their main safety concerns, perceptions of security measures in place, the effect of those measures on school climate, and whether they were concerned for their own safety and that of their students. On the specific issue of firearms in school, the survey asked whether allowing teachers to carry firearms would make schools more or less safe and whether teachers would personally carry a firearm if given the choice to do so. Findings note that teachers, like the U.S. population as a whole, are divided about armed teachers at school: Fifty-four percent of respondents reported believing that teachers carrying firearms will make schools less safe, 20 percent reported believing that it will make schools safer, and the final 26 percent reported feeling that it would make schools neither more nor less safe.

Key Findings

• Similar to older and state-specific surveys, this survey found that teachers are divided about arming teachers at school. Fifty-four percent of the nationally representative sample of teachers reported believing that teachers carrying firearms will make schools less safe, 20 percent reported believing that it will make schools safer, and the final 26 percent reported feeling that it would make schools neither more nor less safe.

• White teachers were more likely than Black teachers to feel that teachers carrying firearms would make schools safer, and male teachers in rural schools were most likely to say that they would personally carry a firearm at school if allowed.

• All told, about 550,000 of the country's 3 million K–12 teachers would choose to carry a firearm at school if allowed.

• Regardless of gender or race, roughly half of teachers felt that physical security measures at their school (which most commonly include locks, ID badges, cameras, and security staff) positively affected the school climate. Only 5 percent of teachers felt that their schools' physical security measures had a negative effect on school climate.

• Despite the growth in gun violence, bullying — rather than active shooters — was teachers' most common safety concern.

Recommendations

• Study early adopter schools or school districts that have more-expansive versions of teacher-carry programs to understand how they work in practice.

• Conduct a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of programs allowing teacher-carry to rigorously assess their outcomes.

• Develop risk analysis approaches to inform school safety and security planning that balance frequent, lower-level forms of school violence, such as bullying, and lower-probability, extreme forms of school violence, such as shootings.

• Develop a deeper understanding of the sources of teachers' safety concerns.

• Identify how fears of victimization and of specific safety concerns contribute to teacher and principal turnover, and to student enrollment, attendance, and academic performance.

• Better characterize the combined effects of school security measures and strategies on safety, school climate, and student attendance and academic performance.

• Take the pulse of parents, teachers, administrators, and students about school safety measures to disaggregate by type of community and to triangulate their views on school safety.

Santa Monica, CA: RAND,  2023.

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By Michael Topper and Toshio Ferrazares

Latest Version Link ---Technology is integral to police departments, automating officer tasks, but inherently changing their time allocation. We investigate this by studying ShotSpotter, a technology that automates gunfire detection. Following a detection, officers are dispatched to the scene, thereby reallocating their time. We leverage this shock to officers’ time allocation using the rollout of ShotSpotter across Chicago police districts to study the effects on 911 call response. We find substantial consequences— officers are dispatched to calls slower (23%), arrive on-scene later (13%), and the probability of arrest is decreased 9%. Consequently, police departments must evaluate their resource capacities prior to implementing technologies. 

unpublished paper, 2024.

By Mitchell L. Doucette &Christa Green & Jennifer Necci Dineen & David Shapiro & Kerri M. Raissian

Over the past decade, large urban counties have implemented ShotSpotter, a gun fire detection technology, across the USA. It uses acoustic listening devices to identify discharged firearms’ locations. We examined the effect of ShotSpotter with a pooled, cross sectional time-series analysis within the 68 large metropolitan counties in the USA from 1999 to 2016. We identified ShotSpotter implementation years through publicly available media. We used a Poisson distribution to model the impact of ShotSpotter on firearm homicides, murder arrests, and weapons arrests. ShotSpotter did not display protective effects for all outcomes. Counties in states with permit-to-purchase firearm laws saw a 15% reduction in firearm homicide incidence rates; counties in states with right-to-carry laws saw a 21% increase in firearm homicide incidence rates. Results suggest that implementing ShotSpotter technology has no significant impact on firearm related homicides or arrest outcomes. Policy solutions may represent a more cost-effective measure to reduce urban firearm violence.

Journal of Urban Health, 2021.

By Veronica A. Pear, Mona A. Wright, Aaron B. Shev, Garen J. Wintemute & Rose M. C. Kagawa 

Background: The prevalence and characteristics of handgun purchasers’ criminal charge histories have never been described for a large population of firearm owners, but such information is critical to understanding risk factors for subsequent violence in this population. We sought to characterize legal handgun purchasers in California and compare this group to the state population, to quantify the proportion with a criminal charge history at purchase, and to identify modifiable factors associated with having such a history.

Methods: This cross-sectional study of all 79,927 legal handgun purchasers aged 21–49 years in California in 2001 used log-linear generalized additive models to identify factors associated with having a criminal charge history at purchase. Subjects are from a longitudinal study of incident criminal activity among handgun purchasers.

Results: The majority (91.03%) of purchasers were male; whites were overrepresented and Hispanics were underrepresented relative to their population size. At the time of purchase, 16.68%  had a criminal charge history and 10.71% had a criminal conviction. Among men with such a history, 31.28% had been charged with a violent crime and 16.54% had been charged with a firearm-related crime. The strongest factor associated with having a criminal charge history was redeeming a pawned handgun (prevalence ratio: 1.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.71, 1.93).

Conclusions: Despite California’s stringent firearm purchase laws, more than 1-in-6 handgun purchasers had a criminal charge history at purchase. This proportion may be higher in states with less restrictive firearm purchasing eligibility criteria.

Injury Epidemiology volume 8, Article number: 7 (2021) 

By Shelby L Bandel , Allison E Bond , Michael D Anestis 

Background: Firearms account for over 40,000 deaths in the USA each year in addition to thousands of nonfatal injuries. One notable prevention strategy for firearm-related fatalities and nonfatal injuries is safe storage. Safe storage of firearms emphasizes using storage mechanisms that limit the ready access of firearms to unauthorized users. Cable locks are one safe storage option that is easy to access and typically free, as they are included in many firearms sales. The present study examined the extent to which firearms retailers notifying purchasers at the point of sale about the included cable locks was associated with subsequent locking device use in two large samples and three subsamples. Exploratory analyses then examined demographic factors associated with the frequency of seller notification of locks.

Methods: Sample 1 included 1203 firearm owners and sample 2 included 1556 firearm owners. Subsamples were drawn from sample 2 to examine if there were differences by state. The three subsamples included firearm owners from Minnesota (n = 515), Mississippi (535), and New Jersey (506). Logistic regressions were used to examine the association between the frequency of sellers notifying buyers of locks and subsequent locking device use. Linear regressions were used to examine what demographic factors were associated with greater frequency of seller notification of locking devices.

Results: Results indicated a general trend such that more frequent notification of cable locks at the point of purchase was associated with a greater likelihood of using locking devices to secure firearms. At the subsample level, these findings were most consistent for Mississippi relative to Minnesota and New Jersey. Exploratory analyses generally indicated those who were younger and those living in more densely populated areas were more likely to be notified about cable locks at the point of purchase.

Conclusions: These findings suggest that interactions about cable locks at the point of firearm purchase has an impact on firearm storage behaviors. Such results indicate that encouraging firearm retailers to have these discussions with those purchasing firearms might be an important strategy for preventing firearm-related fatalities and nonfatal injuries.

Inj Epidemiol. 2023; 10: 11

By Alaina De Biasi, Anthony A. Braga, Brad Velasquez & Garen Wintemute 

Background: Privately made firearms (PMFs) or “ghost guns” are homemade, unserialized, untraceable firearms that have been increasingly used in violent crime in the United States. Very little is known about the types of PMFs recovered by law enforcement agencies and the crimes associated with these recoveries. This lack of information limits effective violence prevention policies and practices. Comparative analysis of PMF recoveries in specific cities helps clarify whether local PMF patterns and characteristics vary or reflect more general trends. This research advances epidemiological understanding of emergent violent gun injury prevention challenges by identifying variations in recovered PMF types and use in violent, drug, and weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles and San Diego, California.

Methods: Conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) identifies patterns among observations (i.e., case configurations) and calculates their probability associated with a given outcome. CACC was used to identify the most common types of PMFs recovered by the Los Angeles (LAPD) and San Diego (SDPD) police departments. For each department and offense type, case configurations with above-average probabilities of offense involvement were determined. Comparisons across departments were made to identify similarities and differences in PMF characteristics and usage.

Results: PMFs were more likely to be involved in violent and weapon-related offenses in Los Angles but more likely to be involved in drug-related offenses in San Diego. In both cities, the 9 mm Polymer 80 handgun was the dominant PMF. However, 9 mm handguns were most likely to be involved in weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles compared to 0.40 handguns in San Diego. Furthermore, large-caliber handguns tended to display above-average probabilities of involvement in violent and drug offenses in Los Angeles. Long guns were represented in case configurations with above-average probabilities of involvement in substantive crimes, including violence.

Conclusions: Comparative analyses of PMF recovery patterns in Los Angeles and San Diego reveal meaningful contextual variations in PMF characteristics and suggest intentional firearm type selections by offenders. The results support increased regulation of PMFs and highlight the importance of efforts to identify and disrupt the illicit supply of large-caliber PMF handguns and PMF long guns.

Injury Epidemiology volume 11, Article number: 17 (2024)